Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260905 · dates 20260905 · generated 2026-09-07T02:17:54.694669+00:00

8-7

Winner picks · 53.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

16/30

Starter ER within ±1

21/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260905	15	15	0	8	7	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	53.0%	50.0%	3.0%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	3	56.6%	66.7%	-10.1%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	63.6%	0.0%	63.6%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	74.0%	100.0%	-26.1%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	1.8729	2.5619	3.0583	53.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	1.8333	2.4667	3.0	33.3%	-0.0396	-0.0583
enhanced_prediction	15	1.9667	3.1333	3.2667	53.3%	0.0938	0.2084
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.0	3.2	3.3333	53.3%	0.1271	0.275
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.0	3.2	3.3333	53.3%	0.1271	0.275
capped_target	15	2.0	3.2	3.3333	53.3%	0.1271	0.275
simulation_result	15	2.0	3.2	3.3333	53.3%	0.1271	0.275
published_final	15	2.0	3.2	3.3333	53.3%	0.1271	0.275

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.0,
  "total_run_mae": 3.2,
  "margin_mae": 3.3333,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1271,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.275
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=7

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	0.0	6.0	6.0	7	3	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.4714	-1.2059	0.2655	2.6773	7	5	2	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	7	1	0	6	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7	0	0	7	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4714,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.2059,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2655,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.6773,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 7,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=8

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	9.0	-1.0	8.0	10.0	8	4	1	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.3696	-2.7021	-1.3325	4.0717	8	3	5	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8	0	0	8	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 10.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.3696,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.7021,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.3325,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0717,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 8,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	3	1	2	0.3333
[0.525, 0.550)	7	4	3	0.5714
[0.550, 0.600)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	2	1	1	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.3333
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5714
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260905	15	0.5584	10.0	0.5333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260905",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5584,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.0,
      "accuracy": 0.5333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	8	7	0.5333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.5333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260905_ARI@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 5 - 4 HOU

Final confidence51.7%

Calibrationraw 55.8% → blended 54.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0333

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.438835673167135-3.524351420085674	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.034296,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.517148,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.482852,
    "away_win_probability": 0.517148
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.034296,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.517147815,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.557608,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.546004,
    "published_confidence": 0.517148,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.243,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.356,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0333
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024215981128845487
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02359300798386226
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023241779657063845
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022643868530071713
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021851492231907046
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.043885840655483496,
      "1": 0.07486974762070084,
      "2": 0.11062025547258614,
      "3": 0.14154980837546055,
      "4": 0.15686651749150113,
      "5": 0.15055582574622858,
      "6": 0.12514434106411504,
      "7": 0.09008888406924172,
      "8": 0.05616652298226142,
      "9": 0.030327053144646843,
      "10": 0.014181730427035697,
      "11": 0.005743472950738407
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04205190281762122,
      "1": 0.07186068784322006,
      "2": 0.10670652319424469,
      "3": 0.13768430955518704,
      "4": 0.15437316717480826,
      "5": 0.1504018088827688,
      "6": 0.1273292516277826,
      "7": 0.09366928288460478,
      "8": 0.05987700732540309,
      "9": 0.03325958749232645,
      "10": 0.016053417955515247,
      "11": 0.0067330532465178965
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0144,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.706,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_ATL@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 4 PHI

Final confidence53.8%

Calibrationraw 53.2% → blended 53.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=374

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5452

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.114310645572815-5.401479422407697	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.075958,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.537979,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.462021,
    "away_win_probability": 0.537979
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.075958,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.53797885,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.532012,
    "sample_size": 374,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5348,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.533406,
    "published_confidence": 0.537979,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6773,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5452
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026332744504501817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02452721685123998
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024419702174363726
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024401030592102593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02426359481833647
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04891876227773533,
      "1": 0.08307872437913785,
      "2": 0.12109196984827068,
      "3": 0.1514788619419515,
      "4": 0.1626297102334485,
      "5": 0.14985074547976807,
      "6": 0.11850293110041113,
      "7": 0.08042858761174929,
      "8": 0.04684928389913589,
      "9": 0.023421064861989246,
      "10": 0.010048968426379213,
      "11": 0.0037003899400234403
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048218186997314824,
      "1": 0.08194034621177351,
      "2": 0.1196577945250723,
      "3": 0.15015523387030705,
      "4": 0.16191841248872796,
      "5": 0.15004042346921656,
      "6": 0.11947488105706992,
      "7": 0.0817525323252248,
      "8": 0.04807088335141517,
      "9": 0.024289539051153036,
      "10": 0.01054660607679297,
      "11": 0.003935160575931703
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0021,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.51,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5452,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.538,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6045,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.538,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5452,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0021,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T21:45:48.764629+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T22:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.455319,
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      "predicted_score": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.544681,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.532012,
        "sample_size": 374,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5348,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.533406
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.533406,
        "final_confidence": 0.505,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
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        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.0328,
        "calibration_sample_size": 374,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5348,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5332,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5452,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.495,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.970153,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.455319,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.544681
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 23,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 141,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.5602836879432624,
          "runs_scored": 633,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 33,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.23404255319148937,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.5957446808510638,
          "runs_scored": 658,
          "runs_allowed": 537,
          "run_differential": 121,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8581560283687943,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6241,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0355,
        "quality_edge": -0.5452,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6773,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6773,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.3,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.5452
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.229,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.229,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.5452,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6773,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.997,
          "home_runs": 3.965,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4972
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.14985074547976807,
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          "8": 0.04684928389913589,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.0817525323252248,
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          "9": 0.024289539051153036,
          "10": 0.01054660607679297,
          "11": 0.003935160575931703
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.114310645572815,
      "home_runs": 5.401479422407697,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_BOS@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 BAL

Final confidence53.2%

Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 53.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.9% · weight 50.0% · n=384

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3549

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.566148459430418-3.3787160401087752	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.064612,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.532306,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.467694,
    "away_win_probability": 0.532306
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.064612,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.532305865,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.53554,
    "sample_size": 384,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5391,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53732,
    "published_confidence": 0.532306,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7958,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3549
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028680200776130454
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02839179918560681
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028106351841430864
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027823720745569356
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024755135345585436
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05869944208799679,
      "1": 0.0988253896851711,
      "2": 0.14033133855472252,
      "3": 0.16807083984387836,
      "4": 0.16977808978653758,
      "5": 0.14465134822127926,
      "6": 0.1039477035010989,
      "7": 0.0630026594774648,
      "8": 0.032207308700939664,
      "9": 0.013886780142336316,
      "10": 0.005050103207642292,
      "11": 0.0015489967909322721
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05707187804579438,
      "1": 0.0962240529558935,
      "2": 0.13723046533156483,
      "3": 0.16554757964805147,
      "4": 0.16892757370630182,
      "5": 0.1458087753061077,
      "6": 0.10645650134272718,
      "7": 0.06574551401550541,
      "8": 0.034345154175442254,
      "9": 0.01517645101512662,
      "10": 0.005672576843702306,
      "11": 0.0017934776137823612
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0052,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.254,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3549,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5323,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5224,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5323,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3549,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.464,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0052,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260905_CHC@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 6 - 3 MIA

Final confidence74.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=116

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7993

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6738906273395946-4.906414452032094	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.47906,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.73953,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.26047,
    "away_win_probability": 0.73953
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.47906,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.73953,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 116,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5603,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.74015,
    "published_confidence": 0.73953,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0417,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0417,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0035,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.42,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7993
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.024169043400652096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.023474349287384542
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022567481904573795
      },
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        "probability": 0.02183728307247166
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07675418131709526,
      "1": 0.12717892758656713,
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7993,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0035,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.903,
          "home_runs": 2.979,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3365
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.024169043400652096
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.023474349287384542
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022567481904573795
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.02183728307247166
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07675418131709526,
          "1": 0.12717892758656713,
          "2": 0.1721618612437559,
          "3": 0.1904002067348833,
          "4": 0.1720309381965275,
          "5": 0.12698557092203755,
          "6": 0.07657920787045636,
          "7": 0.03772906471438122,
          "8": 0.015186226913408311,
          "9": 0.004993814500887773
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.019422271735022728,
          "1": 0.03390686787659412,
          "2": 0.053682540954645974,
          "3": 0.07707902214014764,
          "4": 0.10036841612201364,
          "5": 0.11852656198003589,
          "6": 0.12693811532623758,
          "7": 0.12328951575179038,
          "8": 0.1085970404455819,
          "9": 0.08674961875599792,
          "10": 0.06284560364557949,
          "11": 0.04128953305579771,
          "12": 0.024601567710583125,
          "13": 0.013293622337947852,
          "14": 0.006514508160134144,
          "15": 0.0028951940018899763
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6738906273395946,
      "home_runs": 4.906414452032094,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_DET@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreDET 3 - 4 CLE

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 64.1% → blended 59.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=485

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0258

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8860778223071106-5.450973387592395	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.108834,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554417,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554417,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445583
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.108834,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5544172549999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.640962,
    "sample_size": 485,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.592631,
    "published_confidence": 0.554417,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3028,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.636,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0258
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03237029794696783
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031262414648250414
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029703011197652878
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028686416599685065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02865153479441882
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054720574329063985,
      "1": 0.09245252287711954,
      "2": 0.13268003355727573,
      "3": 0.16173762610891393,
      "4": 0.16746931436000992,
      "5": 0.14729164278245635,
      "6": 0.11003723163578544,
      "7": 0.0698264384895793,
      "8": 0.0376373305231322,
      "9": 0.017232029145909218,
      "10": 0.006701510679841726,
      "11": 0.002213745510912731
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.080008795090315,
      "1": 0.13218251025019054,
      "2": 0.17736390282102735,
      "3": 0.19329092061236475,
      "4": 0.17108528152701707,
      "5": 0.12298972186945051,
      "6": 0.07180917981857529,
      "7": 0.03405227168608891,
      "8": 0.013114966617975177,
      "9": 0.004102449706995375
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0495,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.706,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0258,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5544,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5946,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5544,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0258,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.636,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0495,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T22:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.575318,
      "confidence": 0.575318,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.575318,
      "confidence": 0.575318,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.640962,
        "sample_size": 485,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.592631
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.5663,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5663,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.97674,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.8,
        "calibration_sample_size": 485,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5427,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0258,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.566274,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.97674,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.575318,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.575318
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.2,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CLE",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.5070422535211268,
          "runs_scored": 577,
          "runs_allowed": 586,
          "run_differential": -9,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.06338028169014084,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 64,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.45390070921985815,
          "runs_scored": 619,
          "runs_allowed": 574,
          "run_differential": 45,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3191489361702128,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3825,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0531,
        "quality_edge": 0.0258,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3028,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.3028,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.636,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0258
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03237029794696783
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.031262414648250414
          },
          {
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          {
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            "probability": 0.028686416599685065
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02865153479441882
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.054720574329063985,
          "1": 0.09245252287711954,
          "2": 0.13268003355727573,
          "3": 0.16173762610891393,
          "4": 0.16746931436000992,
          "5": 0.14729164278245635,
          "6": 0.11003723163578544,
          "7": 0.0698264384895793,
          "8": 0.0376373305231322,
          "9": 0.017232029145909218,
          "10": 0.006701510679841726,
          "11": 0.002213745510912731
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.080008795090315,
          "1": 0.13218251025019054,
          "2": 0.17736390282102735,
          "3": 0.19329092061236475,
          "4": 0.17108528152701707,
          "5": 0.12298972186945051,
          "6": 0.07180917981857529,
          "7": 0.03405227168608891,
          "8": 0.013114966617975177,
          "9": 0.004102449706995375
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8860778223071106,
      "home_runs": 5.450973387592395,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_LAA@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scoreLAA 4 - 6 PIT

Final confidence63.6%

Calibrationraw 76.6% → blended 65.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=210

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9091

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.499963556424875-6.1048161273108885	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.271458,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.635729,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.635729,
    "away_win_probability": 0.364271
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.271458,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.635729,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.765739,
    "sample_size": 210,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.656669,
    "published_confidence": 0.635729,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9613,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.812,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9091
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020590117892526436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019734442894507168
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019442994063525544
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01932753910503189
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018903538009335332
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.020403645656207257,
      "1": 0.03558375074590448,
      "2": 0.05616503347237851,
      "3": 0.08023256347958141,
      "4": 0.10373030683210081,
      "5": 0.12137549230556756,
      "6": 0.1285365663163665,
      "7": 0.12319490063469103,
      "8": 0.10686343177117491,
      "9": 0.08389495585425712,
      "10": 0.05960915022339988,
      "11": 0.03833190112419583,
      "12": 0.022308898912156053,
      "13": 0.011750768211227716,
      "14": 0.005601763011910749,
      "15": 0.002416871448880167
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.046620950063682956,
      "1": 0.07933976155756692,
      "2": 0.11635971566561991,
      "3": 0.14706739530296875,
      "4": 0.16018879671834446,
      "5": 0.15036607604299232,
      "6": 0.12163808742242316,
      "7": 0.08479910884329271,
      "8": 0.050946573797342194,
      "9": 0.026377927240842088,
      "10": 0.011769779816646701,
      "11": 0.004525827528277975
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1534,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.162,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9091,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.6357,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6794,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6357,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9091,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.812,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1534,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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    },
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}

20260905_MIL@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 8 - 5 CIN

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 80.5% → blended 68.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=113

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6661

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.440329339566954-3.799283652511467	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
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        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.805433,
        "sample_size": 113,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.681466
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.54,
        "final_confidence": 0.6861,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6861,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.910687,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.4527,
        "calibration_sample_size": 113,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5496,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6661,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 8,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -3,
          "probability_before": 0.313872,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.26135,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.910687,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.287611,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.712389
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.475177304964539,
          "runs_scored": 588,
          "runs_allowed": 699,
          "run_differential": -111,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.7872340425531915,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 88,
          "losses": 54,
          "win_pct": 0.6197183098591549,
          "runs_scored": 715,
          "runs_allowed": 541,
          "run_differential": 174,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2253521126760563,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -2.0126,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1445,
        "quality_edge": -1.6661,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.2294,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.2294,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.62,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.6661
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -2.6658,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -2.6658,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.6661,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.2294,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 9.078,
          "home_runs": 3.086,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 8,
            "probability": 0.01514778684767176
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          {
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            "probability": 0.015035085461131666
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          {
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            "probability": 0.014705251295995127
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.026385231657534335,
          "1": 0.04574533094117183,
          "2": 0.07093928497960098,
          "3": 0.09839680806491663,
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          "5": 0.13546650608718158,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.01809049265263298,
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          "7": 0.10855267269188543,
          "8": 0.111819425223259,
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          "13": 0.04094839136139683,
          "14": 0.02659793660084162,
          "15": 0.015998580172819934,
          "16": 0.008911223411084171,
          "17": 0.0045963767182117575,
          "18": 0.0021954133200505627
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.440329339566954,
      "home_runs": 3.799283652511467,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_MIN@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 6 - 5 CHW

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4618

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.6841785749305735-4.008664519121752	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52225,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6631,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4618
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019057813172271766
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018722385679163022
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0185009631418513
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01817533650092077
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017488560523776463
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028464842708436,
      "1": 0.04925141373745333,
      "2": 0.07591557504969751,
      "3": 0.10424262592623015,
      "4": 0.12751523387609973,
      "5": 0.13895720579891854,
      "6": 0.13489701675325969,
      "7": 0.11666105246163108,
      "8": 0.08987764964795879,
      "9": 0.06168503216865212,
      "10": 0.03771465647081296,
      "11": 0.020542003027905924,
      "12": 0.009967303752394385,
      "13": 0.004308388620549774
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027344933312535482,
      "1": 0.04736488585849642,
      "2": 0.07324497257189087,
      "3": 0.10112088119343833,
      "4": 0.12463659317726321,
      "5": 0.13714879385132317,
      "6": 0.134734903249679,
      "7": 0.11817073486240504,
      "8": 0.09252976450111378,
      "9": 0.06468367354274362,
      "10": 0.04036914910021627,
      "11": 0.022492939416486883,
      "12": 0.011188826273463874,
      "13": 0.004968949088944015
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0399,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4618,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5618,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4618,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.088,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0399,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 11,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 18,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260905_NYY@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 4 - 3 SD

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=563

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7361

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.343474016864449-3.5994661723129293	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.097012,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548506,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451494,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548506
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.097012,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5485064825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 563,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5382,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5509,
    "published_confidence": 0.548506,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7943,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7361
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028835077898294835
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028045089500660945
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02692376830314869
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        "away_runs": 5,
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      },
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06486233420606968,
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      "3": 0.17688718825613953,
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      "8": 0.02516983586436924,
      "9": 0.00989848738503065,
      "10": 0.0032479387766739367
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04930932460825651,
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.028045089500660945
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02692376830314869
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.0264858543877694
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026186143641440104
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06486233420606968,
          "1": 0.1086117035188431,
          "2": 0.15174389487488704,
          "3": 0.17688718825613953,
          "4": 0.172041048186558,
          "5": 0.13961057990632333,
          "6": 0.09452683830269584,
          "7": 0.05340015072240971,
          "8": 0.02516983586436924,
          "9": 0.00989848738503065,
          "10": 0.0032479387766739367
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04930932460825651,
          "1": 0.08371275169761892,
          "2": 0.12188822566373532,
          "3": 0.15220869622373118,
          "4": 0.1630139422903852,
          "5": 0.1497330284283611,
          "6": 0.1179554577157488,
          "7": 0.07969407706818622,
          "8": 0.0461786916655661,
          "9": 0.02294905341459492,
          "10": 0.009781275756781792,
          "11": 0.0035754754670337934
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.343474016864449,
      "home_runs": 3.5994661723129293,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_OAK@SEA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreOAK 6 - 8 SEA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 57.0% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4783

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.108091594069284-4.803799458423813	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 6 - 8 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.569702,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.552051,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9577,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.412,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4783
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016587801540073367
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015944862385666593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015774273941847744
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01576793093788746
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015625070618223758
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.020187061468201522,
      "1": 0.03521392490056605,
      "2": 0.05561870397001487,
      "3": 0.07954124756862761,
      "4": 0.102998057664577,
      "5": 0.12076213265358551,
      "6": 0.12820283113967834,
      "7": 0.12323372057693317,
      "8": 0.10725723768697154,
      "9": 0.08452569648095999,
      "10": 0.0603137054572588,
      "11": 0.03896802240868473,
      "12": 0.022796376682702957,
      "13": 0.012075034646404496,
      "14": 0.00579129981941722,
      "15": 0.0025149468754159803
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.03658346773943926,
      "2": 0.057638581762687865,
      "3": 0.08208959799149161,
      "4": 0.10568403783079508,
      "5": 0.12299206497794213,
      "6": 0.1293871702568002,
      "7": 0.12304154129530498,
      "8": 0.1057690824832181,
      "9": 0.08218870499603124,
      "10": 0.057731383391577774,
      "11": 0.036657109566854994,
      "12": 0.02104025006422606,
      "13": 0.010916665493422482,
      "14": 0.005120065714600645,
      "15": 0.002170738422893387
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "OAK 6 - 8 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "OAK 6 - 8 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0517,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.342,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4783,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5972,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4783,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.412,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0517,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.54631,
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      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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        }
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    },
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 14.0,
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        "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
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      },
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        "home": {
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          "games": 142,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.4647887323943662,
          "runs_scored": 565,
          "runs_allowed": 634,
          "run_differential": -69,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4859154929577465,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 56,
          "losses": 86,
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          "run_differential": -190,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.8521,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.412,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.2009,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "season_quality_edge": 0.9577,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 6.32,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5456
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.108091594069284,
      "home_runs": 4.803799458423813,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_SF@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreSF 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence52.4%

Calibrationraw 52.8% → blended 53.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=372

H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1833

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.376002117490601-4.347786203488306	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.047156,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.523578,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.523578,
    "away_win_probability": 0.476422
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.047156,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.52357815,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.528384,
    "sample_size": 372,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5349,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.531642,
    "published_confidence": 0.523578,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2842,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1833
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0240171250327142
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023349497075365138
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023284906725270775
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022637632969861626
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021502481434358445
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04231156639546897,
      "1": 0.0722873115454119,
      "2": 0.10726386168990017,
      "3": 0.13823982297182968,
      "4": 0.15473953776216556,
      "5": 0.1504380886346545,
      "6": 0.1270289487951717,
      "7": 0.09316139583653223,
      "8": 0.05934138184280479,
      "9": 0.0328297600876648,
      "10": 0.01577488305441352,
      "11": 0.006583441383982003
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04264972632899563,
      "1": 0.07284261841586906,
      "2": 0.10798809860942214,
      "3": 0.13895919391595785,
      "4": 0.1552100088965529,
      "5": 0.15047806825595952,
      "6": 0.12663324528462666,
      "7": 0.09250033642674176,
      "8": 0.058648908451934004,
      "9": 0.03227732988509606,
      "10": 0.01541900375065513,
      "11": 0.00639346177818956
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0161,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.206,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1833,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5236,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5883,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5236,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1833,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0161,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
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    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-05T20:10:00+00:00",
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      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
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      "prospective": true,
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.376002117490601,
      "home_runs": 4.347786203488306,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_STL@COL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 7 - 6 COL

Final confidence50.9%

Calibrationraw 53.7% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7359

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.711484386138736-5.168109269338435	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
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    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.018402,
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    "pick_probability": 0.509201,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
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    "home_runs": 6
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    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 7 - 6 COL",
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    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
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    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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    "published_confidence": 0.509201,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.75,
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    "away_run_delta": 0.0187,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": -1.0
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        "home_margin": -3.0
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    "alignment": "aligned",
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "home_runs": 6,
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      "winner": "STL"
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      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5092,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0568,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 11,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 2
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53662,
        "sample_size": 393,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.53551
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53551,
        "final_confidence": 0.5083,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5083,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.971533,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 393,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5328,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7359,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 7,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491742,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.971533,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.45369,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.54631
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 2,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "690279": 2,
            "669461": 27
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.4583,
          "probability_before": 0.45369,
          "probability_after": 0.478775,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.75,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0187,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0187,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 54,
          "losses": 87,
          "win_pct": 0.3829787234042553,
          "runs_scored": 661,
          "runs_allowed": 802,
          "run_differential": -141,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 142,
          "wins": 71,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 640,
          "runs_allowed": 648,
          "run_differential": -8,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.056338028169014086,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9437,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.117,
        "quality_edge": -0.7359,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.1192,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1192,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.024,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7359
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3091,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3091,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7359,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.1192,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.565,
          "home_runs": 5.882,
          "home_win_probability": 0.442
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.016036903831648734
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.01568991762815076
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          {
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            "probability": 0.015531139023154584
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          {
            "home_runs": 7,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.015195095917688785
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          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01501077012315624
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.01963396192885472,
          "1": 0.03426883474801179,
          "2": 0.05421955658844954,
          "3": 0.07776386138847796,
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          "5": 0.11915635896654142,
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          "8": 0.10823446407256919,
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          "15": 0.002784377741408156
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.03299570635837188,
          "2": 0.052327916634451674,
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          "6": 0.12597540117327014,
          "7": 0.12324970507593605,
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          "12": 0.025939342010821893,
          "13": 0.014214383989595295,
          "14": 0.0070719951837715745,
          "15": 0.0031944838289616416
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.711484386138736,
      "home_runs": 5.168109269338435,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_TB@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreTB 6 - 5 TEX

Final confidence53.3%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 49.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5889

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.253839568425303-4.07346071733139	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.066918,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533459,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466541,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533459
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.066918,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 6 - 5 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.533458975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 393,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.49725,
    "published_confidence": 0.533459,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7832,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.228,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5889
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021490253210897852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020989662114759278
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020735544236336025
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0202525332305358
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019621266229629744
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03585126371924096,
      "1": 0.06160346900033112,
      "2": 0.09300144899458108,
      "3": 0.12335538345814641,
      "4": 0.14375082523058746,
      "5": 0.1471791978637231,
      "6": 0.13239340842349978,
      "7": 0.10463335255449915,
      "8": 0.07265370475361327,
      "9": 0.04432300888249445,
      "10": 0.02375661455652529,
      "11": 0.011187259554731729,
      "12": 0.004628568797057631,
      "13": 0.001682494210968388
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03438417977170215,
      "1": 0.059162585840140995,
      "2": 0.08967988243017341,
      "3": 0.11975738841989761,
      "4": 0.14088637889938485,
      "5": 0.14601420256955208,
      "6": 0.1333154855742424,
      "7": 0.10723227021133014,
      "8": 0.07598533911325488,
      "9": 0.047434411334263966,
      "10": 0.026086548910764465,
      "11": 0.012638605130590898,
      "12": 0.005394374156907336,
      "13": 0.002028347637794547
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0487,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.298,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5889,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5335,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5651,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5335,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5889,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.228,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0487,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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  ]
}

20260905_TOR@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 7 - 5 KC

Final confidence57.0%

Calibrationraw 67.0% → blended 61.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=306

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4912

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.305396609584328-4.763715798497789	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.14,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.43,
    "away_win_probability": 0.57
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.14,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 7 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0187,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0187,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
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        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 2.0
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    ],
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4912
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2063,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2063,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.4912,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.493,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.479,
          "home_runs": 3.96,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2008
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.01699450447131536
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
            "home_runs": 6,
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            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 8,
            "probability": 0.015771796472447773
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.02897494500524592,
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          "2": 0.07712490439201003,
          "3": 0.10564440372187801,
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          "5": 0.13972750621311658,
          "6": 0.13491662306461252,
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          "10": 0.036557122335170986,
          "11": 0.01970796206441219,
          "12": 0.009455590713516739,
          "13": 0.004037502883629402
        },
        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.028301504050951033,
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          "3": 0.06615375086866147,
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          "5": 0.10755406617887853,
          "6": 0.11968391594380363,
          "7": 0.12162604867072366,
          "8": 0.11287538795970606,
          "9": 0.09566515181933481,
          "10": 0.07404404310071092,
          "11": 0.05233694104184771,
          "12": 0.03378379220682114,
          "13": 0.019915458513362374,
          "14": 0.010721463535386003,
          "15": 0.005271080962566914,
          "16": 0.0023666124879782083
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.305396609584328,
      "home_runs": 4.763715798497789,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260905_WAS@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 LAD

Final confidence57.3%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=304

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.741

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.787827695729873-5.10930589316906	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.146862,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.573431,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.573431,
    "away_win_probability": 0.426569
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.146862,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.57343065,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 304,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61585,
    "published_confidence": 0.573431,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1636,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.741
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028504388950442203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028453770934886536
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025823190765011998
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025777334013824912
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02568566353989166
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.038977480309650474,
      "1": 0.06678691004373886,
      "2": 0.09997848864877103,
      "3": 0.13075533271138204,
      "4": 0.14939975292434074,
      "5": 0.14913444925371355,
      "6": 0.13005998409131514,
      "7": 0.09909392820578493,
      "8": 0.0659611196989464,
      "9": 0.03835894199758671,
      "10": 0.019488698967735613,
      "11": 0.008650410176438954,
      "12": 0.003354502970595623
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07717702375228991,
      "1": 0.12783077277797653,
      "2": 0.1728462749070905,
      "3": 0.1907927449175732,
      "4": 0.17192574309610428,
      "5": 0.12647281527887475,
      "6": 0.07595050816514191,
      "7": 0.03723414656057308,
      "8": 0.014901477994777214,
      "9": 0.004868492549598461
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0406,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.306,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.741,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5734,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5818,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5734,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.741,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.044,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0406,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.base_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T00:35:37.680735+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-06T01:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.586389,
      "confidence": 0.586389,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
          "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.586389,
      "confidence": 0.586389,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
        "sample_size": 304,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.61585
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.61585,
        "final_confidence": 0.6219,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6219,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.963665,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.5,
        "calibration_sample_size": 304,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5559,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.741,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.62194,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.963665,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.603151,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.603151
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 9,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "607192": 9,
            "676917": 29
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.8375,
          "probability_before": 0.603151,
          "probability_after": 0.586389,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 16.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
        "home_average_margin": 4.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 141,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.5957446808510638,
          "runs_scored": 692,
          "runs_allowed": 543,
          "run_differential": 149,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.0567375886524824,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.46853146853146854,
          "runs_scored": 738,
          "runs_allowed": 726,
          "run_differential": 12,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.08391608391608392,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.9728,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1272,
        "quality_edge": 0.741,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1636,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1636,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.741
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3112,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3112,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.741,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1636,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.972,
          "home_runs": 4.502,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6301
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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          },
          {
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          },
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.038977480309650474,
          "1": 0.06678691004373886,
          "2": 0.09997848864877103,
          "3": 0.13075533271138204,
          "4": 0.14939975292434074,
          "5": 0.14913444925371355,
          "6": 0.13005998409131514,
          "7": 0.09909392820578493,
          "8": 0.0659611196989464,
          "9": 0.03835894199758671,
          "10": 0.019488698967735613,
          "11": 0.008650410176438954,
          "12": 0.003354502970595623
        },
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          "0": 0.07717702375228991,
          "1": 0.12783077277797653,
          "2": 0.1728462749070905,
          "3": 0.1907927449175732,
          "4": 0.17192574309610428,
          "5": 0.12647281527887475,
          "6": 0.07595050816514191,
          "7": 0.03723414656057308,
          "8": 0.014901477994777214,
          "9": 0.004868492549598461
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.787827695729873,
      "home_runs": 5.10930589316906,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260905	20260905_ARI@HOU	ARI	51.7%	55.8%	53.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.9145)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.557608, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.546004, "published_confidence": 0.517148, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0167, "away_run_delta": -0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.243, "recent_quality_edge": 0.356, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0333 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024215981128845487 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02359300798386226 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023241779657063845 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022643868530071713 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021851492231907046 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.043885840655483496, "1": 0.07486974762070084, "2": 0.11062025547258614, "3": 0.14154980837546055, "4": 0.15686651749150113, "5": 0.15055582574622858, "6": 0.12514434106411504, "7": 0.09008888406924172, "8": 0.05616652298226142, "9": 0.030327053144646843, "10": 0.014181730427035697, "11": 0.005743472950738407 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04205190281762122, "1": 0.07186068784322006, "2": 0.10670652319424469, "3": 0.13768430955518704, "4": 0.15437316717480826, "5": 0.1504018088827688, "6": 0.1273292516277826, "7": 0.09366928288460478, "8": 0.05987700732540309, "9": 0.03325958749232645, "10": 0.016053417955515247, "11": 0.0067330532465178965 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0144, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.706, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0333, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_ATL@PHI	ATL	53.8%	53.2%	53.5%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.532012, "sample_size": 374, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5348, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.533406, "published_confidence": 0.537979, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6773, "recent_quality_edge": -0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5452 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026332744504501817 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02452721685123998 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024419702174363726 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024401030592102593 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02426359481833647 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04891876227773533, "1": 0.08307872437913785, "2": 0.12109196984827068, "3": 0.1514788619419515, "4": 0.1626297102334485, "5": 0.14985074547976807, "6": 0.11850293110041113, "7": 0.08042858761174929, "8": 0.04684928389913589, "9": 0.023421064861989246, "10": 0.010048968426379213, "11": 0.0037003899400234403 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.048218186997314824, "1": 0.08194034621177351, "2": 0.1196577945250723, "3": 0.15015523387030705, "4": 0.16191841248872796, "5": 0.15004042346921656, "6": 0.11947488105706992, "7": 0.0817525323252248, "8": 0.04807088335141517, "9": 0.024289539051153036, "10": 0.01054660607679297, "11": 0.003935160575931703 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0021, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.51, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5452, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_BOS@BAL	BOS	53.2%	53.6%	53.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.53554, "sample_size": 384, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5391, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53732, "published_confidence": 0.532306, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7958, "recent_quality_edge": 0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3549 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028680200776130454 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02839179918560681 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028106351841430864 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027823720745569356 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024755135345585436 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05869944208799679, "1": 0.0988253896851711, "2": 0.14033133855472252, "3": 0.16807083984387836, "4": 0.16977808978653758, "5": 0.14465134822127926, "6": 0.1039477035010989, "7": 0.0630026594774648, "8": 0.032207308700939664, "9": 0.013886780142336316, "10": 0.005050103207642292, "11": 0.0015489967909322721 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05707187804579438, "1": 0.0962240529558935, "2": 0.13723046533156483, "3": 0.16554757964805147, "4": 0.16892757370630182, "5": 0.1458087753061077, "6": 0.10645650134272718, "7": 0.06574551401550541, "8": 0.034345154175442254, "9": 0.01517645101512662, "10": 0.005672576843702306, "11": 0.0017934776137823612 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0052, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.254, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3549, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_CHC@MIA	CHC	74.0%	92.0%	56.0%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	6-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (4.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 116, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5603, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.74015, "published_confidence": 0.73953, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -5.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0417, "away_run_delta": 0.0417, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0035, "recent_quality_edge": -0.42, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7993 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.024169043400652096 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.023474349287384542 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022567481904573795 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0218539021973396 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02183728307247166 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07675418131709526, "1": 0.12717892758656713, "2": 0.1721618612437559, "3": 0.1904002067348833, "4": 0.1720309381965275, "5": 0.12698557092203755, "6": 0.07657920787045636, "7": 0.03772906471438122, "8": 0.015186226913408311, "9": 0.004993814500887773 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.019422271735022728, "1": 0.03390686787659412, "2": 0.053682540954645974, "3": 0.07707902214014764, "4": 0.10036841612201364, "5": 0.11852656198003589, "6": 0.12693811532623758, "7": 0.12328951575179038, "8": 0.1085970404455819, "9": 0.08674961875599792, "10": 0.06284560364557949, "11": 0.04128953305579771, "12": 0.024601567710583125, "13": 0.013293622337947852, "14": 0.006514508160134144, "15": 0.0028951940018899763 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 3 MIA", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0855, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.77, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7993, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_DET@CLE	CLE	55.4%	64.1%	54.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	6-0	miss	Variance Applied (-0.5649)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.640962, "sample_size": 485, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.592631, "published_confidence": 0.554417, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0058, "away_run_delta": 0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3028, "recent_quality_edge": 0.636, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0258 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03237029794696783 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031262414648250414 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029703011197652878 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028686416599685065 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02865153479441882 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.054720574329063985, "1": 0.09245252287711954, "2": 0.13268003355727573, "3": 0.16173762610891393, "4": 0.16746931436000992, "5": 0.14729164278245635, "6": 0.11003723163578544, "7": 0.0698264384895793, "8": 0.0376373305231322, "9": 0.017232029145909218, "10": 0.006701510679841726, "11": 0.002213745510912731 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.080008795090315, "1": 0.13218251025019054, "2": 0.17736390282102735, "3": 0.19329092061236475, "4": 0.17108528152701707, "5": 0.12298972186945051, "6": 0.07180917981857529, "7": 0.03405227168608891, "8": 0.013114966617975177, "9": 0.004102449706995375 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0495, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.706, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0258, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_LAA@PIT	PIT	63.6%	76.6%	54.8%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	6-1	miss	Variance Applied (0.3951)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.765739, "sample_size": 210, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.656669, "published_confidence": 0.635729, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9613, "recent_quality_edge": 0.812, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9091 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020590117892526436 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019734442894507168 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019442994063525544 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01932753910503189 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018903538009335332 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.020403645656207257, "1": 0.03558375074590448, "2": 0.05616503347237851, "3": 0.08023256347958141, "4": 0.10373030683210081, "5": 0.12137549230556756, "6": 0.1285365663163665, "7": 0.12319490063469103, "8": 0.10686343177117491, "9": 0.08389495585425712, "10": 0.05960915022339988, "11": 0.03833190112419583, "12": 0.022308898912156053, "13": 0.011750768211227716, "14": 0.005601763011910749, "15": 0.002416871448880167 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.046620950063682956, "1": 0.07933976155756692, "2": 0.11635971566561991, "3": 0.14706739530296875, "4": 0.16018879671834446, "5": 0.15036607604299232, "6": 0.12163808742242316, "7": 0.08479910884329271, "8": 0.050946573797342194, "9": 0.026377927240842088, "10": 0.011769779816646701, "11": 0.004525827528277975 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1534, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.162, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9091, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_MIL@CIN	MIL	54.0%	80.5%	55.8%	50.0%	8.0-5.0	3-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.805433, "sample_size": 113, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5575, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.681466, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.2294, "recent_quality_edge": -0.62, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6661 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01514778684767176 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.015035085461131666 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014705251295995127 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01459584242807632 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.014449350119310565 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.026385231657534335, "1": 0.04574533094117183, "2": 0.07093928497960098, "3": 0.09839680806491663, "4": 0.12207574538438297, "5": 0.13546650608718158, "6": 0.13445861871595718, "7": 0.11937119234750614, "8": 0.09479045086414427, "9": 0.06732615564380698, "10": 0.04277176925502099, "11": 0.024304393297469435, "12": 0.012352831694337336, "13": 0.0056156810669693285 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.010254876155609107, "1": 0.01809049265263298, "2": 0.029552400413797173, "3": 0.04470514680639121, "4": 0.06262455929599549, "5": 0.08123706683955347, "6": 0.09758569968308603, "7": 0.10855267269188543, "8": 0.111819425223259, "9": 0.1066636361759523, "10": 0.09421887369665372, "11": 0.07706937308945327, "12": 0.05837785569132586, "13": 0.04094839136139683, "14": 0.02659793660084162, "15": 0.015998580172819934, "16": 0.008911223411084171, "17": 0.0045963767182117575, "18": 0.0021954133200505627 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 8 - 5 CIN", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0624, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6661, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_MIN@CHW	MIN	53.0%	51.0%	53.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	6-4	hit	Variance Applied (0.3245)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52225, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": 2.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0635, "away_run_delta": -0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6631, "recent_quality_edge": 0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4618 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019057813172271766 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018722385679163022 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0185009631418513 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01817533650092077 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017488560523776463 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028464842708436, "1": 0.04925141373745333, "2": 0.07591557504969751, "3": 0.10424262592623015, "4": 0.12751523387609973, "5": 0.13895720579891854, "6": 0.13489701675325969, "7": 0.11666105246163108, "8": 0.08987764964795879, "9": 0.06168503216865212, "10": 0.03771465647081296, "11": 0.020542003027905924, "12": 0.009967303752394385, "13": 0.004308388620549774 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.027344933312535482, "1": 0.04736488585849642, "2": 0.07324497257189087, "3": 0.10112088119343833, "4": 0.12463659317726321, "5": 0.13714879385132317, "6": 0.134734903249679, "7": 0.11817073486240504, "8": 0.09252976450111378, "9": 0.06468367354274362, "10": 0.04036914910021627, "11": 0.022492939416486883, "12": 0.011188826273463874, "13": 0.004968949088944015 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 6 - 5 CHW", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0399, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.298, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4618, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_NYY@SD	NYY	54.9%	56.4%	53.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 563, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5382, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5509, "published_confidence": 0.548506, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7943, "recent_quality_edge": -0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7361 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028835077898294835 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028045089500660945 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02692376830314869 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0264858543877694 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026186143641440104 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06486233420606968, "1": 0.1086117035188431, "2": 0.15174389487488704, "3": 0.17688718825613953, "4": 0.172041048186558, "5": 0.13961057990632333, "6": 0.09452683830269584, "7": 0.05340015072240971, "8": 0.02516983586436924, "9": 0.00989848738503065, "10": 0.0032479387766739367 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04930932460825651, "1": 0.08371275169761892, "2": 0.12188822566373532, "3": 0.15220869622373118, "4": 0.1630139422903852, "5": 0.1497330284283611, "6": 0.1179554577157488, "7": 0.07969407706818622, "8": 0.0461786916655661, "9": 0.02294905341459492, "10": 0.009781275756781792, "11": 0.0035754754670337934 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0296, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.278, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7361, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_OAK@SEA	SEA	53.0%	57.0%	53.4%	50.0%	6.0-8.0	6-2	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.569702, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.552051, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9577, "recent_quality_edge": -0.412, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4783 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016587801540073367 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015944862385666593 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015774273941847744 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01576793093788746 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015625070618223758 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.020187061468201522, "1": 0.03521392490056605, "2": 0.05561870397001487, "3": 0.07954124756862761, "4": 0.102998057664577, "5": 0.12076213265358551, "6": 0.12820283113967834, "7": 0.12323372057693317, "8": 0.10725723768697154, "9": 0.08452569648095999, "10": 0.0603137054572588, "11": 0.03896802240868473, "12": 0.022796376682702957, "13": 0.012075034646404496, "14": 0.00579129981941722, "15": 0.0025149468754159803 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.020989538012714047, "1": 0.03658346773943926, "2": 0.057638581762687865, "3": 0.08208959799149161, "4": 0.10568403783079508, "5": 0.12299206497794213, "6": 0.1293871702568002, "7": 0.12304154129530498, "8": 0.1057690824832181, "9": 0.08218870499603124, "10": 0.057731383391577774, "11": 0.036657109566854994, "12": 0.02104025006422606, "13": 0.010916665493422482, "14": 0.005120065714600645, "15": 0.002170738422893387 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 8 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 8 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0517, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.342, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4783, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_SF@NYM	NYM	52.4%	52.8%	53.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	9-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.528384, "sample_size": 372, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5349, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.531642, "published_confidence": 0.523578, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": 3.6, "home_run_delta": 0.1038, "away_run_delta": -0.1038, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2842, "recent_quality_edge": -0.004, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1833 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0240171250327142 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023349497075365138 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023284906725270775 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022637632969861626 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021502481434358445 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04231156639546897, "1": 0.0722873115454119, "2": 0.10726386168990017, "3": 0.13823982297182968, "4": 0.15473953776216556, "5": 0.1504380886346545, "6": 0.1270289487951717, "7": 0.09316139583653223, "8": 0.05934138184280479, "9": 0.0328297600876648, "10": 0.01577488305441352, "11": 0.006583441383982003 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04264972632899563, "1": 0.07284261841586906, "2": 0.10798809860942214, "3": 0.13895919391595785, "4": 0.1552100088965529, "5": 0.15047806825595952, "6": 0.12663324528462666, "7": 0.09250033642674176, "8": 0.058648908451934004, "9": 0.03227732988509606, "10": 0.01541900375065513, "11": 0.00639346177818956 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0161, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.206, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1833, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_STL@COL	STL	50.9%	53.7%	53.4%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	7-10	miss	Variance Applied (0.4566)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.53662, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53551, "published_confidence": 0.509201, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0187, "away_run_delta": 0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1192, "recent_quality_edge": -0.024, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7359 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016036903831648734 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01568991762815076 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015531139023154584 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015195095917688785 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01501077012315624 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01963396192885472, "1": 0.03426883474801179, "2": 0.05421955658844954, "3": 0.07776386138847796, "4": 0.10110320079280401, "5": 0.11915635896654142, "6": 0.127301867525638, "7": 0.12328707730640695, "8": 0.10823446407256919, "9": 0.0861348331078455, "10": 0.06213800328227001, "11": 0.04063506908228183, "12": 0.024088510293414387, "13": 0.01294446527087082, "14": 0.006305557904155683, "15": 0.002784377741408156 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.018889751323675326, "1": 0.03299570635837188, "2": 0.052327916634451674, "3": 0.07534497330797091, "4": 0.09849630698112827, "5": 0.11690428667540663, "6": 0.12597540117327014, "7": 0.12324970507593605, "8": 0.10947900767580732, "9": 0.08829185486679002, "10": 0.0646480238619203, "11": 0.04297686105212106, "12": 0.025939342010821893, "13": 0.014214383989595295, "14": 0.0070719951837715745, "15": 0.0031944838289616416 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 7 - 6 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 7 - 6 COL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0568, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.199, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7359, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_TB@TEX	TB	53.3%	46.0%	53.4%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	6-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5344, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.49725, "published_confidence": 0.533459, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7832, "recent_quality_edge": -0.228, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5889 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021490253210897852 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020989662114759278 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020735544236336025 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0202525332305358 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019621266229629744 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03585126371924096, "1": 0.06160346900033112, "2": 0.09300144899458108, "3": 0.12335538345814641, "4": 0.14375082523058746, "5": 0.1471791978637231, "6": 0.13239340842349978, "7": 0.10463335255449915, "8": 0.07265370475361327, "9": 0.04432300888249445, "10": 0.02375661455652529, "11": 0.011187259554731729, "12": 0.004628568797057631, "13": 0.001682494210968388 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03438417977170215, "1": 0.059162585840140995, "2": 0.08967988243017341, "3": 0.11975738841989761, "4": 0.14088637889938485, "5": 0.14601420256955208, "6": 0.1333154855742424, "7": 0.10723227021133014, "8": 0.07598533911325488, "9": 0.047434411334263966, "10": 0.026086548910764465, "11": 0.012638605130590898, "12": 0.005394374156907336, "13": 0.002028347637794547 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0487, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.298, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5889, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_TOR@KC	TOR	57.0%	67.0%	55.9%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.669636, "sample_size": 306, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.614218, "published_confidence": 0.57, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0187, "away_run_delta": -0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.493, "recent_quality_edge": -0.488, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4912 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01699450447131536 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016723135108647945 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01640937576334624 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016147349774286925 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.015771796472447773 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02897494500524592, "1": 0.050109493546559344, "2": 0.07712490439201003, "3": 0.10564440372187801, "4": 0.12878805547913036, "5": 0.13972750621311658, "6": 0.13491662306461252, "7": 0.11593811870100666, "8": 0.08866746000432883, "9": 0.06035031187538247, "10": 0.036557122335170986, "11": 0.01970796206441219, "12": 0.009455590713516739, "13": 0.004037502883629402 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.016155106072503488, "1": 0.028301504050951033, "2": 0.0452783997471184, "3": 0.06615375086866147, "4": 0.08826727683964554, "5": 0.10755406617887853, "6": 0.11968391594380363, "7": 0.12162604867072366, "8": 0.11287538795970606, "9": 0.09566515181933481, "10": 0.07404404310071092, "11": 0.05233694104184771, "12": 0.03378379220682114, "13": 0.019915458513362374, "14": 0.010721463535386003, "15": 0.005271080962566914, "16": 0.0023666124879782083 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TOR 7 - 5 KC", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0904, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.488, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4912, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260905	20260905_WAS@LAD	LAD	57.3%	67.2%	55.9%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	5-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.3215)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 304, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.61585, "published_confidence": 0.573431, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.1, "away_run_delta": -0.1, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1636, "recent_quality_edge": -0.044, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.741 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028504388950442203 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028453770934886536 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025823190765011998 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025777334013824912 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02568566353989166 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.038977480309650474, "1": 0.06678691004373886, "2": 0.09997848864877103, "3": 0.13075533271138204, "4": 0.14939975292434074, "5": 0.14913444925371355, "6": 0.13005998409131514, "7": 0.09909392820578493, "8": 0.0659611196989464, "9": 0.03835894199758671, "10": 0.019488698967735613, "11": 0.008650410176438954, "12": 0.003354502970595623 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07717702375228991, "1": 0.12783077277797653, "2": 0.1728462749070905, "3": 0.1907927449175732, "4": 0.17192574309610428, "5": 0.12647281527887475, "6": 0.07595050816514191, "7": 0.03723414656057308, "8": 0.014901477994777214, "9": 0.004868492549598461 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0406, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.306, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.741, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3667 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6667 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.8, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0333 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.9333, "mae_innings": 0.9778, "bias_outs": -0.2667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260905

20260905_ARI@HOU

away

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.1

-1

3/7

0/2

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4864864864864864,
      "WHIP": 1.135135135135135,
      "IP": 111.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.978,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0212,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.94,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.976,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0619,
            "WHIP": 0.8351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34021,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68041,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15464,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64948,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15464
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 906.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4415,
            "WHIP": 0.9734,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27128,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82979,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14362,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54255,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07979
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.0,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 455.0,
            "Pitches": 1671.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.72,
            "R": 1.88,
            "H": 3.96,
            "BB": 1.08,
            "SO": 2.92,
            "HR": 0.52,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 66.84
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4865,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38739,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65766,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11712
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.125,
        "predicted_H": 4.846,
        "predicted_BB": 1.214,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0099
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.846,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1876,
          "final": 3.1876,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0099,
          "final": 1.0099,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.2,
        "ER": 17,
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        "HR9": 0.7180851063829786,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7747410613829996,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 25.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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              "before": 6.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5211,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 632.0,
        "run_differential": -3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0211,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4296,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4507,
        "offense_index": 0.9892,
        "defense_index": 1.0062,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5141,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2535,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5211,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7746,
        "offense_index": 1.0096,
        "defense_index": 0.9379,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0509
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0356,
        "offense_edge": -0.0108,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0096,
        "defense_strength": 0.0062,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0621,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 1.0027,
        "strikeout": 0.9982
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694297",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 400.0,
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            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7498,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3161,
            "whiff_percent": 20.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2871,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4457,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0457
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.05610692018405,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.8790078891307,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.05610692018405,
                "release_spin_rate": 2453.8790078891307,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0561,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0457,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3265,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0212,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.94,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694297",
            "espn_id": 4721302,
            "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 105,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 105,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 308,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 132,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 77,
              "era_value": 3.4864,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 81,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 323,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 226,
              "ip_value": 111.0,
              "ip_rank": 103,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 110,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 134,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 113,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 188,
              "k_value": 73.0,
              "k_rank": 162,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.918919,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.1351,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_ARI@HOU

home

Ethan Pecko

True

4.0

4.1

-3

6/5

2/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.230769230769231,
      "WHIP": 1.5384615384615385,
      "IP": 13.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5342,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0454,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.99,
      "walk_factor": 1.0567,
      "homer_factor": 1.0933,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.5,
      "bb_percent": 15.5,
      "woba": 0.376,
      "xwoba": 0.4,
      "barrel_percent": 10.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 51.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 649,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "814490",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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        },
        "season": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 3,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.091458784649233,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2535,
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          "run_differential": 6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0211,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0096,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0108,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0027,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "814490",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "814490",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "814490",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6618,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5342,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Ethan Pecko",
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            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 649,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 701,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 251,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 6.2307,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 404,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 13.0,
              "ip_rank": 573,
              "h_value": 11.0,
              "h_rank": 613,
              "er_value": 9.0,
              "er_rank": 549,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 365,
              "bb_value": 9.0,
              "bb_rank": 499,
              "k_value": 9.0,
              "k_rank": 598,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.230769,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.5384,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0255,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.042,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_ARI@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_ATL@PHI

away

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

3.2

-6

4/7

3/4

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.049586776859504,
      "WHIP": 1.2148760330578512,
      "IP": 121.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.076,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2233,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.019,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 0.9775,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 121.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.05,
      "season_WHIP": 1.215,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2817,
            "WHIP": 1.3944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92958,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67606,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 781.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 78.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1224,
            "WHIP": 1.3469,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34694,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87755,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46939,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63265,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10204
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 121.0,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 97.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 499.0,
            "Pitches": 1901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5769,
            "R": 1.7308,
            "H": 3.7308,
            "BB": 1.9231,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.4615,
            "BF": 19.1923,
            "Pitches": 73.1154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0496,
            "WHIP": 1.2149,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80165,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41322,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75207,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09917
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.648,
        "predicted_H": 4.431,
        "predicted_BB": 2.179,
        "predicted_SO": 3.538,
        "predicted_HR": 0.424,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0114,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3419
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.648,
          "final": 1.7952,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.431,
          "final": 4.2508,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.179,
          "final": 2.5223,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.538,
          "final": 2.8949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.424,
          "final": 0.6649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0114,
          "final": 3.0114,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3419,
          "final": 1.3419,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.1224489795918364,
        "WHIP": 1.3469387755102038,
        "K9": 5.693877551020408,
        "HR9": 0.9183673469387754,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8606873814003683,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "player_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5957,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 537.0,
        "run_differential": 121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8582,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8085,
        "offense_index": 1.0421,
        "defense_index": 1.1758,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2917
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5603,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.234,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2553,
        "offense_index": 1.0025,
        "defense_index": 1.0523,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.115
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1767,
        "offense_edge": 0.0421,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0025,
        "defense_strength": 0.1758,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0523,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0122,
        "run_prevention": 0.974,
        "strikeout": 1.0051
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "527048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "527048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 452.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2714,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0132,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 43.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0161,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4393,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2621
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "527048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
                "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1924,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9371,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2621,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.872,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2233,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.019,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9606,
          "walk_factor": 1.016,
          "homer_factor": 0.9775,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "527048",
            "espn_id": 31098,
            "player_name": "Martin Perez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 55,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 55,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 83,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 3.0495,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 61,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 50,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 121.0,
              "ip_rank": 90,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 41.0,
              "er_rank": 141,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 126,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 33,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 116,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7685947,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.2148,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9775,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9606,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_ATL@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

5.1

6.0

-2

5/3

4/2

3/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3145780051150893,
      "WHIP": 1.0895140664961636,
      "IP": 130.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6615,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9438,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0743,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 0.9325,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 509.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 101.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.8158,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23684
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8278,
            "WHIP": 1.3311,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53642,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41722,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.39073,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 101.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 524.0,
            "Pitches": 2155.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.087,
            "R": 2.1304,
            "H": 4.3913,
            "BB": 1.7826,
            "SO": 6.6957,
            "HR": 0.8261,
            "BF": 22.7826,
            "Pitches": 93.6957
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3146,
            "WHIP": 1.0895,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36829,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77494,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31458,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18159,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14578
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.002,
        "predicted_H": 5.024,
        "predicted_BB": 2.588,
        "predicted_SO": 6.047,
        "predicted_HR": 1.006,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.227,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4725
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.002,
          "final": 3.4266,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.024,
          "final": 5.0138,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.588,
          "final": 3.1887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.047,
          "final": 4.3252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.006,
          "final": 0.578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.227,
          "final": 5.227,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4725,
          "final": 1.4725,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.827814569536424,
        "WHIP": 1.3311258278145697,
        "K9": 12.51655629139073,
        "HR9": 1.7880794701986757,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0521456865767436,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5603,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.234,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2553,
        "offense_index": 1.0025,
        "defense_index": 1.0523,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.115
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5957,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 537.0,
        "run_differential": 121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8582,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6667,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8085,
        "offense_index": 1.0421,
        "defense_index": 1.1758,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2917
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1767,
        "offense_edge": 0.0025,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0421,
        "defense_strength": 0.0523,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1758,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.0103,
        "strikeout": 0.9913
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 473.0,
            "k_percent": 29.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7481,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4036,
            "whiff_percent": 30.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7047,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8257,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0095
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04289921739226,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.877200953717,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04289921739226,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.877200953717,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0429,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.8772,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0095,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0682,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6615,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9438,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0743,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 0.9325,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_id": 31267,
            "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 12,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 12,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 340,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 74,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 3.3145,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 131,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 130.1,
              "ip_rank": 73,
              "h_value": 101.0,
              "h_rank": 106,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 108,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 75,
              "k_value": 154.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.634271,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8,
              "whip_value": 1.0895,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 4.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9438,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9438,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9325,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0743,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_ATL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_BOS@BAL

away

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

7.0

-3

4/3

2/3

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8190255220417635,
      "WHIP": 1.1763341067285384,
      "IP": 143.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.747,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1111,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9906,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 0.9805,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 15,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 586.0,
            "Pitches": 2113.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.84,
            "H": 5.28,
            "BB": 1.48,
            "SO": 5.12,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.44,
            "Pitches": 84.52
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.819,
            "WHIP": 1.1763,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31323,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91879,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25754,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89095,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10441
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.976,
        "predicted_H": 5.761,
        "predicted_BB": 1.606,
        "predicted_SO": 5.572,
        "predicted_HR": 0.644,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.991,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2392
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.976,
          "final": 2.827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.761,
          "final": 5.0206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.606,
          "final": 1.7716,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.572,
          "final": 4.9111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.644,
          "final": 0.7937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.991,
          "final": 2.991,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2392,
          "final": 1.2392,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
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          "predicted_HR": 1
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -1.0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": -1.0,
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5423,
        "runs_scored": 634.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4648,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9085,
        "offense_index": 0.997,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -26.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
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        "wins": 69,
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        "win_pct": 0.4859,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1549,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.507,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.662,
        "offense_index": 1.0065,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.031
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1003,
        "offense_edge": -0.003,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0065,
        "defense_strength": 0.1457,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0394,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0081,
        "run_prevention": 0.9815,
        "strikeout": 1.0025
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
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            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.882,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8852,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1875,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0321,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1351
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45986278978744,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.7368281686063,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45986278978744,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4599,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1351,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.965,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1111,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9906,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_id": 32082,
            "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 15,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 15,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 308,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 55,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 11,
              "era_value": 2.819,
              "era_rank": 10.0,
              "w_value": 16.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 172,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
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              "ip_rank": 48,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 44,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 120,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 83,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 101,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 51,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.018561,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.1763,
              "whip_rank": 25.0,
              "war_value": 3.64,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9805,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 6
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_BOS@BAL

home

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

5.2

6/5

3/4

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.970711297071129,
      "WHIP": 1.5815899581589956,
      "IP": 79.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.952,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3861,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0328,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 0.9839,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.345,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 20.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 303,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0290515294796,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
                "release_spin_rate": 2163.0290515294796,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0291,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2687,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9193,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3861,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0328,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 0.9839,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_id": 33148,
            "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 303,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 303,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 438,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 142,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 138,
              "era_value": 4.9707,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 172,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 79.2,
              "ip_rank": 156,
              "h_value": 97.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 126,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 172,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 164,
              "k_value": 55.0,
              "k_rank": 248,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.2133894,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.5815,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.31,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0328,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0328,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_BOS@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_CHC@MIA

away

Javier Assad

True

5.0

4.2

-1

3/3

2/5

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4560000000000004,
      "WHIP": 1.104,
      "IP": 83.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.403,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0343,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0551,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.5,
      "whiff_percent": 14.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 156,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665871",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 70.0,
            "Pitches": 282.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 14.0,
            "Pitches": 56.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72222,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 139.0,
            "Pitches": 555.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 13.9,
            "Pitches": 55.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6214,
            "WHIP": 1.1942,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29126,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29126,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72816,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20388
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 332.0,
            "Pitches": 1305.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.4545,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.2273,
            "BB": 0.9545,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.6818,
            "BF": 15.0909,
            "Pitches": 59.3182
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.456,
            "WHIP": 1.104,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.384,
            "H_per_IP": 0.852,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.252,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.219,
        "predicted_H": 3.289,
        "predicted_BB": 1.126,
        "predicted_SO": 2.878,
        "predicted_HR": 0.67,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8732,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.156
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.219,
          "final": 1.5535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.289,
          "final": 3.1652,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.126,
          "final": 1.5003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.878,
          "final": 3.3585,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.67,
          "final": 0.3831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8732,
          "final": 2.8732,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.156,
          "final": 1.156,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.1,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.6213592233009706,
        "WHIP": 1.1941747572815533,
        "K9": 6.5533980582524265,
        "HR9": 1.8349514563106795,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8004956833619296,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665871",
      "player_name": "Javier Assad",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5634,
        "runs_scored": 759.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9718,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3451,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3732,
        "offense_index": 1.1892,
        "defense_index": 1.0278,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1378
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0634,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2746,
        "offense_index": 0.9651,
        "defense_index": 1.0515,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0272
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.165,
        "offense_edge": 0.1892,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0349,
        "defense_strength": 0.0278,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0515,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0088,
        "run_prevention": 0.9834,
        "strikeout": 1.0077
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665871",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665871",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 318.0,
            "k_percent": 16.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1286,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6061,
            "whiff_percent": 14.9,
            "swing_percent": 44.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2664,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7171,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0153
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665871",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 54,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 54,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.1448544265419,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.5071422515693,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 54,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.1448544265419,
                "release_spin_rate": 2090.5071422515693,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.5071,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0153,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.109,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.403,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0343,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0551,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "665871",
            "espn_id": 5002950,
            "player_name": "Javier Assad",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 156,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 156,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 353,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 168,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 3.456,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 422,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 88,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 83.1,
              "ip_rank": 149,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 155,
              "er_value": 32.0,
              "er_rank": 172,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 83,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 266,
              "k_value": 55.0,
              "k_rank": 248,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.94,
              "k_per_9_rank": 44,
              "whip_value": 1.104,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.16,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0343,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0343,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0551,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9103,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_CHC@MIA

home

Ryan Gusto

True

4.1

4.2

-1

5/10

1/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.8571428571428568,
      "WHIP": 1.3300492610837438,
      "IP": 67.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2613,
      "sample_weight": 0.948,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9653,
      "walk_factor": 0.9526,
      "homer_factor": 1.0513,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 212,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 350.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 70.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9853,
            "WHIP": 1.2794,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22059,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 177.0,
            "Pitches": 631.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 17.7,
            "Pitches": 63.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0484,
            "WHIP": 1.2339,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99194,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24194,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12097
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 298.0,
            "Pitches": 1078.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.5263,
            "R": 1.6842,
            "H": 3.6842,
            "BB": 1.0526,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.4211,
            "BF": 15.6842,
            "Pitches": 56.7368
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.33,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29557,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84236,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11823
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.463,
        "predicted_H": 4.197,
        "predicted_BB": 1.281,
        "predicted_SO": 3.571,
        "predicted_HR": 0.552,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0953,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2878
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 1.463,
          "final": 3.4502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.197,
          "final": 4.5487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.281,
          "final": 1.1579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.571,
          "final": 4.6349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.552,
          "final": 1.1862,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0953,
          "final": 3.0953,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2878,
          "final": 1.2878,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.0483870967741935,
        "WHIP": 1.2338709677419355,
        "K9": 7.403225806451612,
        "HR9": 1.0887096774193548,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8495287243891767,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0634,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2746,
        "offense_index": 0.9651,
        "defense_index": 1.0515,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0272
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5634,
        "runs_scored": 759.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9718,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3451,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3732,
        "offense_index": 1.1892,
        "defense_index": 1.0278,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1378
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.165,
        "offense_edge": -0.0349,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1892,
        "defense_strength": 0.0515,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0278,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9874,
        "run_prevention": 1.0334,
        "strikeout": 0.9799
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 237.0,
            "k_percent": 19.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1905,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0874,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3401,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2364,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0462
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0468,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.1114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0462,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3303,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2613,
          "sample_weight": 0.948,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9653,
          "walk_factor": 0.9526,
          "homer_factor": 1.0513,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 212,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 212,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 396,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 142,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 404,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 230,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 266,
              "ip_value": 67.2,
              "ip_rank": 184,
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": 159,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 187,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 199,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 289,
              "k_value": 57.0,
              "k_rank": 233,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5812807,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.33,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.021,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.021,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0486,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9671,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_CHC@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_DET@CLE

away

Framber Valdez

True

5.1

7.0

-2

4/3

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.360619469026549,
      "WHIP": 1.4004424778761062,
      "IP": 150.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.58,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3037,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0258,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9446,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.0276,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 187,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 131.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.2,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.4505,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98901,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59341,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.5091,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 116.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 664.0,
            "Pitches": 2407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7037,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.7037,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 4.2963,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 24.5926,
            "Pitches": 89.1481
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3606,
            "WHIP": 1.4004,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48451,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02212,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37832,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76991,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09956
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.849,
        "predicted_H": 5.872,
        "predicted_BB": 2.417,
        "predicted_SO": 4.087,
        "predicted_HR": 0.597,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4622,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4424
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.849,
          "final": 2.4958,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.872,
          "final": 5.0933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.417,
          "final": 2.2435,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.087,
          "final": 4.0508,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.597,
          "final": 0.3487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4622,
          "final": 4.4622,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4424,
          "final": 1.4424,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.509090909090909,
        "K9": 6.381818181818182,
        "HR9": 0.8181818181818182,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0657384018085316,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.15,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.15,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4539,
        "runs_scored": 619.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3191,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0709,
        "offense_index": 0.9803,
        "defense_index": 1.1,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.07
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.507,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0634,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0634,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1268,
        "offense_index": 0.9074,
        "defense_index": 1.0851,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0332
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1032,
        "offense_edge": -0.0197,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0926,
        "defense_strength": 0.1,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0851,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0026,
        "run_prevention": 0.9803,
        "strikeout": 1.0043
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 17.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.328,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8697,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8589,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2671,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5193,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0961
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1567,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.4728,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0961,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6863,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3037,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0258,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9446,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 1.0276,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_id": 36581,
            "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 187,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 187,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 264,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 19,
              "era_value": 4.3606,
              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 61,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 15,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 150.2,
              "ip_rank": 31,
              "h_value": 154.0,
              "h_rank": 10,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 19,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 83,
              "bb_value": 57.0,
              "bb_rank": 16,
              "k_value": 116.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.929204,
              "k_per_9_rank": 62,
              "whip_value": 1.4004,
              "whip_rank": 45.0,
              "war_value": 0.94,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0258,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0258,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0276,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9446,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_DET@CLE

home

Parker Messick

True

6.0

5/7

2/2

6/12

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.459627329192547,
      "WHIP": 1.0186335403726707,
      "IP": 161.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.963,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6287,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9466,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.8838,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 4.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 496.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 99.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0106,
            "WHIP": 0.8617,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67021,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19149,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05319,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 960.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 96.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 0.95,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "Pitches": 2504.0
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.27329,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75155,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26708,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9893
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.64,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 2.4094,
          "final": 2.4094,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 0.9893,
          "final": 0.9893,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 12,
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        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 55,
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        "ERA": 1.8,
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        "K9": 8.25,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7019884018085315,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "800048",
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      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.507,
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        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0634,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3191,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0709,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -25.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.07
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0926,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0851,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.266,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.91564892850265,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9156,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Parker Messick",
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            "espn_rank": 5,
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            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
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              "whip_value": 1.0186,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_DET@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_LAA@PIT

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

4.2

6.0

-6

6/5

2/3

5/6

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.651162790697675,
      "WHIP": 1.4883720930232558,
      "IP": 43.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2775,
      "sample_weight": 0.568,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
      "walk_factor": 0.9898,
      "homer_factor": 1.0727,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 547,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 392.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 78.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 192.0,
            "Pitches": 748.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 4.7778,
            "HR": 0.7778,
            "BF": 21.3333,
            "Pitches": 83.1111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6512,
            "WHIP": 1.4884,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11628,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37209,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16279
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 192.0,
            "Pitches": 748.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 4.7778,
            "HR": 0.7778,
            "BF": 21.3333,
            "Pitches": 83.1111
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6512,
            "WHIP": 1.4884,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11628,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37209,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16279
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.571,
        "predicted_H": 4.929,
        "predicted_BB": 1.571,
        "predicted_SO": 4.73,
        "predicted_HR": 0.765,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7043,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3218
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5009,
      "form_weight": 0.4991,
      "form_reliability": 0.6429,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.571,
          "final": 4.2885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.929,
          "final": 4.9646,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.571,
          "final": 1.7859,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.73,
          "final": 3.3626,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.765,
          "final": 1.8845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7043,
          "final": 4.7043,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3218,
          "final": 1.3218,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.651162790697675,
        "WHIP": 1.4883720930232558,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 1.4651162790697674,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1487035180876015,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 9.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6429,
          "prior_weight": 0.3571
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "percent_delta": 1.5,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.3759,
        "runs_scored": 571.0,
        "runs_allowed": 652.0,
        "run_differential": -81.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0496,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6241,
        "offense_index": 0.9043,
        "defense_index": 0.9684,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.316
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.493,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2113,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8732,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.662,
        "offense_index": 1.0882,
        "defense_index": 0.9606,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.09
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.406,
        "offense_edge": -0.0957,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0882,
        "defense_strength": -0.0316,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0394,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9793,
        "run_prevention": 1.0376,
        "strikeout": 0.9808
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 142.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.36,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3913,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.5372,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9586,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0957,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0298
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33948369974534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.3887540174815,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33948369974534,
                "release_spin_rate": 2182.3887540174815,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3395,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.3888,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0298,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2132,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2775,
          "sample_weight": 0.568,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0236,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
          "walk_factor": 0.9898,
          "homer_factor": 1.0727,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_id": 41415,
            "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 547,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 547,
              "gp_value": 9.0,
              "gp_rank": 535,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 176,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 155,
              "era_value": 5.6511,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 526,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 131,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 43.0,
              "ip_rank": 340,
              "h_value": 48.0,
              "h_rank": 248,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 207,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 221,
              "bb_value": 16.0,
              "bb_rank": 353,
              "k_value": 43.0,
              "k_rank": 326,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.4883,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.05,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0134,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0134,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0413,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 6 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_LAA@PIT

home

Braxton Ashcraft

True

6.1

5.0

-4

5/7

0/0

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6486486486486482,
      "WHIP": 1.0852390852390852,
      "IP": 160.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.938,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3314,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9718,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 0.9839,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 16,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 0.7879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12121,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12121
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 837.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 83.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2139,
            "WHIP": 1.0925,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46821,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20809,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84971,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17341
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 164.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 645.0,
            "Pitches": 2346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4074,
            "R": 2.5926,
            "H": 5.1481,
            "BB": 1.2963,
            "SO": 6.0741,
            "HR": 0.7778,
            "BF": 23.8889,
            "Pitches": 86.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6486,
            "WHIP": 1.0852,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86694,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2183,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02287,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13098
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.408,
        "predicted_H": 5.041,
        "predicted_BB": 1.256,
        "predicted_SO": 5.252,
        "predicted_HR": 0.882,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4915,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0146
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.408,
          "final": 3.0703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.041,
          "final": 5.4399,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.256,
          "final": 0.7335,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.252,
          "final": 5.9792,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.882,
          "final": 0.5151,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4915,
          "final": 3.4915,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0146,
          "final": 1.0146,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.213872832369942,
        "WHIP": 1.092485549132948,
        "K9": 7.647398843930636,
        "HR9": 1.560693641618497,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9771112341784738,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "677952",
      "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.493,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": 30.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2113,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8732,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.662,
        "offense_index": 1.0882,
        "defense_index": 0.9606,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.09
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.3759,
        "runs_scored": 571.0,
        "runs_allowed": 652.0,
        "run_differential": -81.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5745,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0496,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6241,
        "offense_index": 0.9043,
        "defense_index": 0.9684,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.316
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.406,
        "offense_edge": 0.0882,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0957,
        "defense_strength": -0.0394,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0316,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0189,
        "run_prevention": 0.9683,
        "strikeout": 1.0198
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "677952",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "677952",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 599.0,
            "k_percent": 25.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1995,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4487,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3616,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4286,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1463
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677952",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.48482503258485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2475.2218591031974,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.48482503258485,
                "release_spin_rate": 2475.2218591031974,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2475.2219,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1463,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.045,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3314,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9718,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 0.9839,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "677952",
            "espn_id": 41282,
            "player_name": "Braxton Ashcraft",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 16,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 16,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 264,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 3.5925,
              "era_rank": 25.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 131,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 160.1,
              "ip_rank": 17,
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 49,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 25,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 116,
              "k_value": 164.0,
              "k_rank": 19,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.205821,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.079,
              "whip_rank": 11.0,
              "war_value": 3.63,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9718,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9718,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_LAA@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_MIL@CIN

away

Dustin May

True

5.0

3.2

-4

-1

4/5

1/0

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.686528497409327,
      "WHIP": 1.3212435233160622,
      "IP": 128.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.949,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1215,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0103,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.0402,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 329,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 344.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 17.6,
            "Pitches": 68.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4068,
            "WHIP": 1.5254,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71186,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01695,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50847,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81356,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15254
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 766.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 76.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4662,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49624,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99248,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06767
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.2,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 547.0,
            "Pitches": 2095.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5769,
            "R": 2.6923,
            "H": 4.8077,
            "BB": 1.7308,
            "SO": 4.6923,
            "HR": 0.3846,
            "BF": 21.0385,
            "Pitches": 80.5769
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6865,
            "WHIP": 1.3212,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52073,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9715,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34974,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07772
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.545,
        "predicted_H": 4.292,
        "predicted_BB": 1.966,
        "predicted_SO": 3.974,
        "predicted_HR": 0.498,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2373,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4309
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.545,
          "final": 2.7353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.292,
          "final": 4.1699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.966,
          "final": 1.5621,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.974,
          "final": 5.2393,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.498,
          "final": 0.7079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2373,
          "final": 5.2373,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4309,
          "final": 1.4309,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.466165413533835,
        "WHIP": 1.4210526315789476,
        "K9": 8.93233082706767,
        "HR9": 0.6090225563909775,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0137083266205615,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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        ],
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6197,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
        "runs_allowed": 541.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2254,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
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        "available": true,
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        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4752,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7872,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9574,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -17.0
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0187
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.2203,
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            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.148
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5004535710195,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5005,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1215,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0103,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_id": 40937,
            "player_name": "Dustin May",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 329,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 329,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
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              "k_rank": 56,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.533679,
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              "whip_value": 1.3212,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.22,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0103,
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.98,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 1.0402,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_MIL@CIN

home

Andrew Abbott

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

5/3

0/0

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "woba": 0.328,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
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            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 6.6,
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            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.25316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
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            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
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          "totals": {
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            "BF": 649.0,
            "Pitches": 2570.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.97079,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.77528,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14157
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 3.457,
        "predicted_H": 5.759,
        "predicted_BB": 2.32,
        "predicted_SO": 4.253,
        "predicted_HR": 0.733,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.8344,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5149
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    },
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.457,
          "final": 2.8538,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.759,
          "final": 5.4448,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.32,
          "final": 1.3595,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.253,
          "final": 4.1483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.733,
          "final": 0.4295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8344,
          "final": 5.8344,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5149,
          "final": 1.5149,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.5687500000000005,
        "WHIP": 1.44375,
        "K9": 7.0875,
        "HR9": 1.0125000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1383165268085316,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4752,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": -111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7872,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1702,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9574,
        "offense_index": 0.9312,
        "defense_index": 0.9033,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1178
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6197,
        "runs_scored": 715.0,
        "runs_allowed": 541.0,
        "run_differential": 174.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2254,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0352,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8099,
        "offense_index": 1.1244,
        "defense_index": 1.1754,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3222
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.44,
        "offense_edge": -0.0688,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1244,
        "defense_strength": -0.0967,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1754,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9745,
        "run_prevention": 1.0516,
        "strikeout": 0.9768
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 17.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.328,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5439,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1056,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4959,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4964,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1434
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
                "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1434,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0245,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4582,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0389,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 1.0478,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_id": 4414528,
            "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 104,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 104,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 236,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 4.4898,
              "era_rank": 45.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 15,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 148.1,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 144.0,
              "h_rank": 22,
              "er_value": 74.0,
              "er_rank": 17,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 25,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 4,
              "k_value": 115.0,
              "k_rank": 74,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.977528,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.4426,
              "whip_rank": 48.0,
              "war_value": 1.68,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0478,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9594,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_MIL@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_MIN@CHW

away

Taj Bradley

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

7/4

2/2

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.848812095032397,
      "WHIP": 1.263498920086393,
      "IP": 154.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.716,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0057,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0005,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0748,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.304,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.46023,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 154.1,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.42765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83585,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15335,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.3013,
          "final": 4.3013,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.337,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 27,
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        "SO": 66,
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        "K9": 10.125,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9749571518085314,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 141,
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        "win_pct": 0.4752,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2908,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6738,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9645,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
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          "run_differential": 13.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 141,
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        "win_pct": 0.5248,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2979,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4255,
        "offense_index": 1.0548,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0437,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0278,
        "strikeout": 0.9901
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1953,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84991659997009,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 92,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8499,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1667,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.191,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0057,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0005,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
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            "espn_rank": 17,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "era_value": 3.8488,
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              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 27,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 107,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 154.1,
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              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 54,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
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              "k_value": 178.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.38013,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.2634,
              "whip_rank": 35.0,
              "war_value": 3.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0005,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
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      "predicted_BB": 2,
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_MIN@CHW

home

Anthony Kay

True

5.1

4.1

-3

2/6

3/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.353658536585366,
      "IP": 136.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.987,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3208,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0273,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9697,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0545,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 891.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 89.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2911,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47468,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87342,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
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            "IP": 136.2,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 611.0,
            "Pitches": 2434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3214,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.8571,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.0357,
            "HR": 0.6786,
            "BF": 21.8214,
            "Pitches": 86.9286
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2805,
            "WHIP": 1.3537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47561,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99512,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82683,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13902
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.776,
        "predicted_H": 5.405,
        "predicted_BB": 1.623,
        "predicted_SO": 4.596,
        "predicted_HR": 0.857,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7352,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3319
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.776,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.405,
          "final": 3.9953,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.623,
          "final": 2.1931,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.596,
          "final": 5.1773,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.857,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.7352,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3319,
          "final": 1.3319,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 8,
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        "K9": 7.860759493670886,
        "HR9": 1.3670886075949367,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9886339714287847,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5248,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
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        "quality_score": -0.0918
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0548,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
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            "espn_rank": 93,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 93,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 236,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 37,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 4.2804,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 80,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 136.2,
              "ip_rank": 58,
              "h_value": 136.0,
              "h_rank": 38,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 45,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 38,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 77,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4414635,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.3536,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.78,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0545,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_MIN@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_NYY@SD

away

Carlos Rodón

True

5.2

5.0

-2

3/2

1/3

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2033898305084745,
      "WHIP": 1.1864406779661016,
      "IP": 59.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.917,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0184,
      "sample_weight": 0.84,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9984,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0317,
      "walk_factor": 1.0571,
      "homer_factor": 0.9892,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 12.6,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 182,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 59.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.203,
      "season_WHIP": 1.186,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 413.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7391,
            "WHIP": 1.087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30435,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6087,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47826,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8235,
            "WHIP": 1.1176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03922,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09804
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 1058.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 2.0833,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.5833,
            "SO": 5.25,
            "HR": 0.4167,
            "BF": 20.5833,
            "Pitches": 88.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2034,
            "WHIP": 1.1864,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66102,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52542,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0678,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08475
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.887,
        "predicted_H": 3.751,
        "predicted_BB": 2.274,
        "predicted_SO": 5.024,
        "predicted_HR": 0.543,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3366,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1836
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.887,
          "final": 0.9921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.751,
          "final": 3.3948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.274,
          "final": 1.6698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.024,
          "final": 4.5384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.543,
          "final": 0.2855,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3366,
          "final": 3.3366,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1836,
          "final": 1.1836,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.823529411764706,
        "WHIP": 1.1176470588235294,
        "K9": 9.352941176470589,
        "HR9": 0.8823529411764706,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8213266371026492,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "player_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
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            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5674,
        "runs_scored": 638.0,
        "runs_allowed": 524.0,
        "run_differential": 114.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8085,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7163,
        "offense_index": 1.0104,
        "defense_index": 1.205,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1916
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5248,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.078,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.156,
        "offense_index": 0.9455,
        "defense_index": 1.0775,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0393
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2309,
        "offense_edge": 0.0104,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0545,
        "defense_strength": 0.205,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0775,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0176,
        "run_prevention": 0.9592,
        "strikeout": 1.0113
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 210.0,
            "k_percent": 25.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.6,
            "woba": 0.275,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.2602,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9794,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1192,
            "command_and_miss": 0.21,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0427
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.63452766848432,
              "release_spin_rate": 2322.88227271101,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.63452766848432,
                "release_spin_rate": 2322.88227271101,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6345,
              "release_spin_rate": 2322.8823,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0427,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3048,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0184,
          "sample_weight": 0.84,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9984,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0317,
          "walk_factor": 1.0571,
          "homer_factor": 0.9892,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_id": 33696,
            "player_name": "Carlos Rodon",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 182,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 182,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 487,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 155,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 138,
              "era_value": 3.2033,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 181,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 230,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 59.0,
              "ip_rank": 229,
              "h_value": 39.0,
              "h_rank": 326,
              "er_value": 21.0,
              "er_rank": 294,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 306,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 146,
              "k_value": 63.0,
              "k_rank": 203,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.610169,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.1864,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.048,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0266,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_NYY@SD

home

Robbie Ray

True

5.2

2.1

-10

5/5

5/4

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.140939597315436,
      "WHIP": 1.3020134228187918,
      "IP": 149.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.487,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2621,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0223,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 1.0442,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 47,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 149.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.141,
      "season_WHIP": 1.302,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.3671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 899.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 89.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.4437,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.825,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 126.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2520.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9259,
            "R": 2.2222,
            "H": 4.4815,
            "BB": 2.7037,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 23.037,
            "Pitches": 93.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1409,
            "WHIP": 1.302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34899,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81208,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48993,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84564,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13423
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.01,
        "predicted_H": 4.556,
        "predicted_BB": 2.925,
        "predicted_SO": 4.39,
        "predicted_HR": 0.82,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3245,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3748
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.01,
          "final": 2.8378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.556,
          "final": 4.7407,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.925,
          "final": 3.7882,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.39,
          "final": 3.8118,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.82,
          "final": 0.8949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3245,
          "final": 3.3245,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3748,
          "final": 1.3748,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 30,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.7,
        "WHIP": 1.44375,
        "K9": 7.425000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.0125000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8155821518085316,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5248,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.078,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.156,
        "offense_index": 0.9455,
        "defense_index": 1.0775,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0393
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5674,
        "runs_scored": 638.0,
        "runs_allowed": 524.0,
        "run_differential": 114.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8085,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5248,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7163,
        "offense_index": 1.0104,
        "defense_index": 1.205,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1916
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2309,
        "offense_edge": -0.0545,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0104,
        "defense_strength": 0.0775,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.205,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
        "run_prevention": 1.0055,
        "strikeout": 0.9922
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 551.0,
            "k_percent": 20.3,
            "bb_percent": 11.7,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4638,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0504,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2412,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2343,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0761
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.8108860159628,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
                "release_spin_rate": 2134.8108860159628,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.8109,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0761,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5435,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2621,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0223,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 1.0442,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_id": 32175,
            "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 47,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 47,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 264,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 37,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 43,
              "era_value": 3.1409,
              "era_rank": 17.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 20,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 80,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 149.0,
              "ip_rank": 35,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 69,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 92,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 32,
              "bb_value": 73.0,
              "bb_rank": 1,
              "k_value": 126.0,
              "k_rank": 54,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6107383,
              "k_per_9_rank": 41,
              "whip_value": 1.302,
              "whip_rank": 40.0,
              "war_value": 2.57,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0442,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_NYY@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_OAK@SEA

away

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.0

7.0

-5

5/2

3/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.365853658536586,
      "WHIP": 1.4959349593495934,
      "IP": 123.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.92,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3712,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0316,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.964,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.0507,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.375,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 819,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 386.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 77.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.4098,
            "WHIP": 1.8689,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.93443,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27869,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29508
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.3,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 82.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5909,
            "WHIP": 1.8182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61364,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31818
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.0,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 134.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 548.0,
            "Pitches": 2139.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.48,
            "R": 3.76,
            "H": 5.36,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.92,
            "HR": 1.32,
            "BF": 21.92,
            "Pitches": 85.56
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3659,
            "WHIP": 1.4959,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70732,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08943,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4065,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26829
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.63,
        "predicted_H": 5.137,
        "predicted_BB": 2.318,
        "predicted_SO": 3.103,
        "predicted_HR": 1.192,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.4664,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7041
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.63,
          "final": 3.7856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.137,
          "final": 4.659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.318,
          "final": 2.6047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.103,
          "final": 4.321,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.192,
          "final": 1.1113,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.4664,
          "final": 7.4664,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7041,
          "final": 1.7041,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
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          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.3944,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.338,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4648,
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        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9789,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4648,
        "offense_index": 0.8865,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1595
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0194,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1135,
        "defense_strength": -0.218,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0053,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9942,
        "run_prevention": 1.0084,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605488",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605488",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 495.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.375,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.3003,
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            "whiff_percent": 23.0,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6434,
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            "regression_edge": 1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.224
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605488",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.87226981566755,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.2499973783792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.87226981566755,
                "release_spin_rate": 2002.2499973783792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8723,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.25,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.224,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6001,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3712,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0316,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.964,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.0507,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.036,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_id": 35397,
            "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 819,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 819,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 308,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 55,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 6.3658,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 238,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 123.0,
              "ip_rank": 88,
              "h_value": 134.0,
              "h_rank": 41,
              "er_value": 87.0,
              "er_rank": 3,
              "hr_value": 33.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 33,
              "k_value": 98.0,
              "k_rank": 101,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1707315,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.4959,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.83,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0316,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0316,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0507,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_OAK@SEA

home

George Kirby

True

5.1

6.2

-3

10/7

0/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.185589519650655,
      "WHIP": 1.349344978165939,
      "IP": 152.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.872,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0128,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0066,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 126,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3117,
            "WHIP": 1.7143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "H_per_IP": 1.32468,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6059,
            "WHIP": 1.3588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51176,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12941,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22941,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 152.2,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 170.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 640.0,
            "Pitches": 2368.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7308,
            "R": 2.8846,
            "H": 6.5385,
            "BB": 1.3846,
            "SO": 4.9231,
            "HR": 0.7308,
            "BF": 24.6154,
            "Pitches": 91.0769
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1856,
            "WHIP": 1.3493,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46507,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23581,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83843,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12445
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.105,
        "predicted_H": 6.364,
        "predicted_BB": 1.7,
        "predicted_SO": 4.25,
        "predicted_HR": 0.84,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1584,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4887
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.105,
          "final": 4.3155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 6.364,
          "final": 7.8844,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.7,
          "final": 0.9891,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.25,
          "final": 3.7273,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.84,
          "final": 0.9069,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1584,
          "final": 5.1584,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4887,
          "final": 1.4887,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.605882352941176,
        "WHIP": 1.3588235294117645,
        "K9": 6.988235294117646,
        "HR9": 1.588235294117647,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.027870754749708,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 10.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 10.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 10.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4648,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 634.0,
        "run_differential": -69.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4859,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9789,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4648,
        "offense_index": 0.8865,
        "defense_index": 1.0053,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1595
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3944,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 815.0,
        "run_differential": -190.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.338,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7394,
        "offense_index": 0.9806,
        "defense_index": 0.782,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2537
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0942,
        "offense_edge": -0.1135,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0194,
        "defense_strength": 0.0053,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.218,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0047,
        "run_prevention": 0.9917,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 564.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1411,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1577,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0936,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1036,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1164
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.892,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1164,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8317,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0128,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.0066,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_id": 42406,
            "player_name": "George Kirby",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 126,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 126,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 37,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 19,
              "era_value": 4.1855,
              "era_rank": 38.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 37,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 15,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 152.2,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 170.0,
              "h_rank": 4,
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": 21,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 111,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 51,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.545851,
              "k_per_9_rank": 47,
              "whip_value": 1.3493,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 1.4,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9709,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 10,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_OAK@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_SF@NYM

away

Anthony Molina

True

3.0

5.0

-2

3/1

1/1

2/6

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7674418604651163,
      "WHIP": 1.0465116279069766,
      "IP": 14.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0261,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.99,
      "walk_factor": 0.9496,
      "homer_factor": 0.9891,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.1,
      "bb_percent": 3.6,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 338,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.881,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3656,
        "prior_weight": 0.6344
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 11.2,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.0465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 11.2,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.0465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 11.2,
            "Pitches": 43.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.0465,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62791,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.0,
        "predicted_H": 4.044,
        "predicted_BB": 1.223,
        "predicted_SO": 3.519,
        "predicted_HR": 0.612,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2175,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2339
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.618,
      "form_weight": 0.382,
      "form_reliability": 0.3656,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.881,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3656,
        "prior_weight": 0.6344
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.0,
          "final": 2.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.044,
          "final": 3.3988,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.223,
          "final": 1.0852,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.519,
          "final": 2.5802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.612,
          "final": 0.2338,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2175,
          "final": 4.2175,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2339,
          "final": 1.2339,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.1,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 13,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.7674418604651168,
        "WHIP": 1.0465116279069768,
        "K9": 5.651162790697675,
        "HR9": 1.255813953488372,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9651960091650975,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.881,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3656,
          "prior_weight": 0.6344
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.4,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4085,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 669.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5423,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.169,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7113,
        "offense_index": 0.9275,
        "defense_index": 0.9541,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1791
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4539,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3262,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1631,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4894,
        "offense_index": 0.9262,
        "defense_index": 1.0012,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0791
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1,
        "offense_edge": -0.0725,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0738,
        "defense_strength": -0.0459,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0012,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9976,
        "run_prevention": 0.9978,
        "strikeout": 1.0029
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683627",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683627",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 12.0,
            "k_percent": 16.1,
            "bb_percent": 3.6,
            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.7307,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3764,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 53.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.116,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0007,
            "regression_edge": -1.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0041
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683627",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 27,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 27,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.79893899204244,
              "release_spin_rate": 2093.420424403183,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 27,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.79893899204244,
                "release_spin_rate": 2093.420424403183,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2093.4204,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0041,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0294,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0261,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.99,
          "walk_factor": 0.9496,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.043,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_id": 5016983,
            "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 338,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 338,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 619,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 296,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.7674,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 306,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 14.1,
              "ip_rank": 560,
              "h_value": 13.0,
              "h_rank": 585,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 619,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 513,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 710,
              "k_value": 9.0,
              "k_rank": 598,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.6511626,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.0465,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.001,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9773,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 57,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_SF@NYM

home

Zac Thornton

True

5.2

5.0

-2

3/7

1/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.934782608695652,
      "WHIP": 1.1576086956521738,
      "IP": 61.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.576,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2277,
      "sample_weight": 0.72,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0194,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9593,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0272,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 61.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.935,
      "season_WHIP": 1.158,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
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            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14815,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14815
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 844.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
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            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5263,
            "WHIP": 1.1404,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2807,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92982,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73684,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10526
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 924.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8182,
            "R": 1.9091,
            "H": 5.1818,
            "BB": 1.2727,
            "SO": 4.0909,
            "HR": 0.6364,
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            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 1.1576,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22826,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7337,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11413
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.064,
        "predicted_H": 5.619,
        "predicted_BB": 1.357,
        "predicted_SO": 4.516,
        "predicted_HR": 0.736,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3386,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.254
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.064,
          "final": 1.5511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.619,
          "final": 4.3566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.357,
          "final": 1.1849,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.516,
          "final": 3.7852,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.736,
          "final": 1.3453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3386,
          "final": 3.3386,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.254,
          "final": 1.254,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 16,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.526315789473684,
        "WHIP": 1.1403508771929824,
        "K9": 6.631578947368421,
        "HR9": 0.9473684210526315,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7884577000541455,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6875,
          "prior_weight": 0.3125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804267",
      "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4539,
        "runs_scored": 587.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3262,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1631,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4894,
        "offense_index": 0.9262,
        "defense_index": 1.0012,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0791
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4085,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 669.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5423,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.169,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7113,
        "offense_index": 0.9275,
        "defense_index": 0.9541,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1791
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1,
        "offense_edge": -0.0738,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0725,
        "defense_strength": 0.0012,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0459,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
        "run_prevention": 0.9833,
        "strikeout": 1.0088
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804267",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804267",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 180.0,
            "k_percent": 18.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.439,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2167,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2152,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3714,
            "regression_edge": -0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1332
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804267",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.4931944684895,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.422462840988,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.4931944684895,
                "release_spin_rate": 2355.422462840988,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4932,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.4225,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1332,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9517,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2277,
          "sample_weight": 0.72,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0194,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9593,
          "walk_factor": 0.9496,
          "homer_factor": 1.0272,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.031,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "804267",
            "espn_id": 5129576,
            "player_name": "Zac Thornton",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 90,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 90,
              "gp_value": 11.0,
              "gp_rank": 500,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 161,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 2.9347,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 238,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 172,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 61.1,
              "ip_rank": 211,
              "h_value": 57.0,
              "h_rank": 195,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 314,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 221,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 390,
              "k_value": 45.0,
              "k_rank": 315,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.6032605,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.1576,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.82,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9637,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0196,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9707,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_SF@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_STL@COL

away

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.1

4.1

-3

7/4

1/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.413366336633664,
      "WHIP": 1.4702970297029705,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.988,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3635,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0309,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0034,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0947,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.339,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 835,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2692,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 88.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5385,
            "WHIP": 1.3462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 134.2,
            "ER": 81.0,
            "R": 87.0,
            "H": 151.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 141.0,
            "HR": 25.0,
            "BF": 589.0,
            "Pitches": 2307.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2222,
            "H": 5.5926,
            "BB": 1.7407,
            "SO": 5.2222,
            "HR": 0.9259,
            "BF": 21.8148,
            "Pitches": 85.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4134,
            "WHIP": 1.4703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60149,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12129,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34901,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04703,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18564
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.488,
        "predicted_H": 5.732,
        "predicted_BB": 1.484,
        "predicted_SO": 6.123,
        "predicted_HR": 0.978,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0087,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3811
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.488,
          "final": 3.701,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.732,
          "final": 6.2595,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.484,
          "final": 1.2827,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.123,
          "final": 5.2398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.978,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0087,
          "final": 6.0087,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3811,
          "final": 1.3811,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.132469171039301,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.507,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5634,
        "offense_index": 1.0065,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0069
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.383,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 802.0,
        "run_differential": -141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6879,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6879,
        "offense_index": 1.0469,
        "defense_index": 0.7873,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2504,
        "offense_edge": 0.0065,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0469,
        "defense_strength": -0.0187,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2127,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0076,
        "run_prevention": 0.9969,
        "strikeout": 1.0038
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 540.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.356,
            "xwoba": 0.339,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8843,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.676,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7822,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1171,
            "regression_edge": 0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0555
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.88051548154917,
              "release_spin_rate": 2373.4956500680873,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.88051548154917,
                "release_spin_rate": 2373.4956500680873,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8805,
              "release_spin_rate": 2373.4957,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0555,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3968,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3635,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0309,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0034,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_id": 41173,
            "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 835,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 835,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 264,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 5.4133,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 138,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 134.2,
              "ip_rank": 63,
              "h_value": 151.0,
              "h_rank": 14,
              "er_value": 81.0,
              "er_rank": 6,
              "hr_value": 25.0,
              "hr_rank": 14,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 46,
              "k_value": 141.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.423267,
              "k_per_9_rank": 15,
              "whip_value": 1.4702,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0309,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0309,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0947,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_STL@COL

home

Mason Adams

True

4.1

4.2

-1

5/8

2/1

2/7

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0,
      "WHIP": 1.4444444444444444,
      "IP": 9.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.5,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2468,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
      "walk_factor": 1.036,
      "homer_factor": 1.0848,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 13.2,
      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 13.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 296,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 74.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.103,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.979,
        "predicted_SO": 4.606,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3712
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 2,
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      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9556666445529202,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "690279",
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      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.383,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 802.0,
        "run_differential": -141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6879,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6879,
        "offense_index": 1.0469,
        "defense_index": 0.7873,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2573
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 640.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0563,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.507,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5634,
        "offense_index": 1.0065,
        "defense_index": 0.9813,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0069
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2504,
        "offense_edge": 0.0469,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0065,
        "defense_strength": -0.2127,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0187,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9833,
        "run_prevention": 1.0348,
        "strikeout": 0.992
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690279",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690279",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 26.3,
            "bb_percent": 13.2,
            "woba": 0.36,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 47.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.1601,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.417,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0244,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0786,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -1.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "690279",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2468,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.021,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0031,
          "walk_factor": 1.036,
          "homer_factor": 1.0848,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690279",
            "espn_id": 4758424,
            "player_name": "Mason Adams",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 296,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 296,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 746,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 271,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 526,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 9.0,
              "ip_rank": 628,
              "h_value": 8.0,
              "h_rank": 654,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 702,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 513,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 613,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 582,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.4444,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.34,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0094,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0094,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0382,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_STL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_TB@TEX

away

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

7.0

-2

3/3

2/0

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.952164009111617,
      "WHIP": 0.929384965831435,
      "IP": 146.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.628,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.509,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9567,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.02,
      "walk_factor": 0.91,
      "homer_factor": 0.9272,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.7,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 146.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.952,
      "season_WHIP": 0.929,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "player_id": "656876",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.68966,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03448
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0307,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.82822,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20245,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01227,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.01822,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08884
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.5069,
          "final": 3.5069,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.0263,
          "final": 1.0263,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 23,
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        "BB": 11,
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        "ERA": 3.809815950920245,
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        "K9": 9.110429447852761,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9301095674527033,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 26.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 3,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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        "win_pct": 0.5957,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3262,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5035,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1773,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.493,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 627.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3028,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2345,
        "offense_edge": 0.0057,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0816,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0142,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0136
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6597,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8088,
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            "xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.42635744843004,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4264,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.5377,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.0216,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
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              "qs_rank": 15,
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              "era_rank": 11.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 131,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 146.1,
              "ip_rank": 44,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 94,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 108,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 113,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 188,
              "k_value": 149.0,
              "k_rank": 28,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.164008,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 0.9293,
              "whip_rank": 3.0,
              "war_value": 3.4,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9567,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9567,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.91,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9272,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_TB@TEX

home

Jacob deGrom

True

5.0

6.0

-2

5/4

2/1

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "ERA": 3.9975728155339803,
      "WHIP": 1.128640776699029,
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      "games_pitched": 26,
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      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.282,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
      "whiff_percent": 33.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 78,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
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            "BF": 206.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.1,
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            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
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        },
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            "SO": 167.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44417,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85922,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26942,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12379
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.217,
        "predicted_BB": 1.653,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 11.28082191780822,
        "HR9": 0.36986301369863017,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-31T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.049539771671545,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "profile": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0398,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3277,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1774,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2669,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3457,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9706,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0926,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.036,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_id": 32796,
            "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 78,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 78,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 37,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 3.9975,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 27,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 26,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 137.1,
              "ip_rank": 55,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 78,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 57,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 63,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 101,
              "k_value": 167.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.944175,
              "k_per_9_rank": 7,
              "whip_value": 1.1286,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.89,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0926,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_TB@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_TOR@KC

away

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

5.2

-1

4/5

2/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.157894736842105,
      "WHIP": 1.3859649122807018,
      "IP": 57.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.385,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1565,
      "sample_weight": 0.804,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0133,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9605,
      "walk_factor": 1.0209,
      "homer_factor": 1.0145,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 20.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 722,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 438.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 87.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1013,
            "WHIP": 1.1013,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4557,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87342,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11392
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 202.0,
            "Pitches": 835.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 83.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.3714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 1022.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0769,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.5385,
            "HR": 0.9231,
            "BF": 19.0769,
            "Pitches": 78.6154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1579,
            "WHIP": 1.386,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92982,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45614,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80702,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21053
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.695,
        "predicted_H": 4.285,
        "predicted_BB": 2.128,
        "predicted_SO": 4.324,
        "predicted_HR": 0.759,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.831,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2775
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.695,
          "final": 3.3049,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.285,
          "final": 4.1518,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.128,
          "final": 2.0682,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.324,
          "final": 3.2378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.759,
          "final": 0.8716,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.831,
          "final": 4.831,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2775,
          "final": 1.2775,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.4,
        "WHIP": 1.3714285714285714,
        "K9": 7.135714285714286,
        "HR9": 1.542857142857143,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.117524116094246,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 575.0,
        "runs_allowed": 609.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2394,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0493,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2887,
        "offense_index": 0.9042,
        "defense_index": 1.0442,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0406
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4437,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
        "run_differential": -92.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6479,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2817,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9296,
        "offense_index": 0.9561,
        "defense_index": 0.9084,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1274
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.168,
        "offense_edge": -0.0958,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0439,
        "defense_strength": 0.0442,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0916,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0098,
        "run_prevention": 0.9802,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 201.0,
            "k_percent": 18.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.5,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3758,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4393,
            "whiff_percent": 20.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.179,
            "command_and_miss": -0.545,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7286,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1232
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6725,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1232,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.88,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1565,
          "sample_weight": 0.804,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0133,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9605,
          "walk_factor": 1.0209,
          "homer_factor": 1.0145,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_id": 28976,
            "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 722,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 722,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 479,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 150,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 6.1578,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 306,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 80,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 57.0,
              "ip_rank": 242,
              "h_value": 53.0,
              "h_rank": 218,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 147,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 126,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 201,
              "k_value": 46.0,
              "k_rank": 307,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.263158,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.3859,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.34,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0107,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0107,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0168,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0117,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9682,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_TOR@KC

home

Seth Lugo

True

5.0

5/8

0/2

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.025974025974026,
      "WHIP": 1.422077922077922,
      "IP": 154.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5434,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0462,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9377,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0668,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 731,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.6,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.1711,
            "WHIP": 1.5789,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.90789,
            "H_per_IP": 1.42105,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9062,
            "WHIP": 1.4062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.0,
            "ER": 86.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 170.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 662.0,
            "Pitches": 2520.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0714,
            "R": 3.3571,
            "H": 6.0714,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.2143,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 23.6429,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.026,
            "WHIP": 1.4221,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55844,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1039,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76623,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.705,
        "predicted_H": 6.247,
        "predicted_BB": 1.381,
        "predicted_SO": 4.009,
        "predicted_HR": 0.569,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4051,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4651
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.705,
          "final": 2.9991,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.247,
          "final": 5.7307,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.381,
          "final": 0.8093,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.009,
          "final": 4.8333,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.569,
          "final": 0.3334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4051,
          "final": 6.4051,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4651,
          "final": 1.4651,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 5.90625,
        "WHIP": 1.40625,
        "K9": 6.4125,
        "HR9": 0.6749999999999999,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1753477768085314,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4437,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 700.0,
        "run_differential": -92.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6479,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2817,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9296,
        "offense_index": 0.9561,
        "defense_index": 0.9084,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1274
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 142,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 575.0,
        "runs_allowed": 609.0,
        "run_differential": -34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2394,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0493,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2887,
        "offense_index": 0.9042,
        "defense_index": 1.0442,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0406
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.168,
        "offense_edge": -0.0439,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0958,
        "defense_strength": -0.0916,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0442,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0022,
        "strikeout": 1.0026
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.346,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4698,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5849,
            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7179,
            "command_and_miss": -0.515,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2362
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854293940252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
                "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854293940252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.6539,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2362,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6874,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5434,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0462,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9377,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.0668,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_id": 34873,
            "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 731,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 731,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 236,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 19,
              "era_value": 5.0259,
              "era_rank": 49.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 101,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 50,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 154.0,
              "ip_rank": 28,
              "h_value": 170.0,
              "h_rank": 4,
              "er_value": 86.0,
              "er_rank": 4,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 50,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 38,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.896104,
              "k_per_9_rank": 64,
              "whip_value": 1.422,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": -0.37,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0462,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0462,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0668,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9377,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_TOR@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_WAS@LAD

away

Cade Cavalli

True

5.2

6.0

-2

4/4

5/0

6/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.124454148471616,
      "WHIP": 1.1986899563318778,
      "IP": 152.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.264,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1942,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 1.0185,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 34,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676917",
      "report_date": "20260905",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.8333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 72.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.95,
            "WHIP": 0.9167,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 152.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 137.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 177.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 640.0,
            "Pitches": 2505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8276,
            "R": 2.2069,
            "H": 4.7241,
            "BB": 1.5862,
            "SO": 6.1034,
            "HR": 0.5862,
            "BF": 22.069,
            "Pitches": 86.3793
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1245,
            "WHIP": 1.1987,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34716,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89738,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30131,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15939,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11135
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.524,
        "predicted_H": 4.083,
        "predicted_BB": 1.727,
        "predicted_SO": 7.336,
        "predicted_HR": 0.871,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3493,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9953
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.524,
          "final": 2.1323,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.083,
          "final": 4.0488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.727,
          "final": 3.076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.336,
          "final": 5.9611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.871,
          "final": 0.9242,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3493,
          "final": 2.3493,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9953,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": true,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7180300684751982,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
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      "player_id": "676917",
      "player_name": "Cade Cavalli",
      "position": "Starter",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4685,
        "runs_scored": 738.0,
        "runs_allowed": 726.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1608,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0769,
        "offense_index": 1.1511,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0165
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5957,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 543.0,
        "run_differential": 149.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0567,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9078,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8511,
        "offense_index": 1.0947,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.176
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1925,
        "offense_edge": 0.1511,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0947,
        "defense_strength": -0.1169,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1642,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.985,
        "run_prevention": 1.0365,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676917",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676917",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 596.0,
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            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2074,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 118.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9042,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0968,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5414,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0977
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676917",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.61672486815726,
              "release_spin_rate": 2232.265396590468,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.61672486815726,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6167,
              "release_spin_rate": 2232.2654,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0977,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.6977,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1942,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676917",
            "espn_id": 4308037,
            "player_name": "Cade Cavalli",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 34,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 34,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 218,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 2,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 11,
              "era_value": 3.1244,
              "era_rank": 16.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 15,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 131,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 152.2,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 137.0,
              "h_rank": 35,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 86,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 63,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 177.0,
              "k_rank": 12,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.434498,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.1986,
              "whip_rank": 29.0,
              "war_value": 2.97,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0185,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0411,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260905

20260905_WAS@LAD

home

Tyler Glasnow

True

5.2

6.0

2/6

4/3

9/8

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.7870967741935484,
      "WHIP": 0.8129032258064517,
      "IP": 51.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.741,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4884,
      "sample_weight": 0.588,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9585,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0487,
      "walk_factor": 0.9777,
      "homer_factor": 0.9723,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 32.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.222,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0322,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2302,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4884,
          "sample_weight": 0.588,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9585,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0487,
          "walk_factor": 0.9777,
          "homer_factor": 0.9723,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_id": 33190,
            "player_name": "Tyler Glasnow",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 108,
            "espn_total_ranked": 854,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 108,
              "gp_value": 9.0,
              "gp_rank": 535,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 176,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 2.787,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 181,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 570,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 246,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 51.2,
              "ip_rank": 284,
              "h_value": 28.0,
              "h_rank": 422,
              "er_value": 16.0,
              "er_rank": 385,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 306,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 390,
              "k_value": 62.0,
              "k_rank": 209,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.8,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 0.8129,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9756,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9756,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9869,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9837,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260905_WAS@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}