Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260902 · dates 20260902 · generated 2026-09-03T06:00:22.059954+00:00

5-10

Winner picks · 33.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

18/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260902	15	15	0	5	10	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.21.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	53.3%	40.0%	13.3%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	5	56.3%	20.0%	36.3%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.9394	4.0109	3.8777	73.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.9333	4.1333	3.7333	60.0%	-0.0061	-0.1444
enhanced_prediction	15	3.0667	4.0	4.6667	33.3%	0.1273	0.789
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	3.1333	4.2667	4.5333	33.3%	0.1939	0.6556
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	3.1333	4.2667	4.5333	33.3%	0.1939	0.6556
capped_target	15	3.1333	4.2667	4.5333	33.3%	0.1939	0.6556
simulation_result	15	3.1333	4.2667	4.5333	33.3%	0.1939	0.6556
published_final	15	3.1333	4.2667	4.5333	33.3%	0.1939	0.6556

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 3.1333,
  "total_run_mae": 4.2667,
  "margin_mae": 4.5333,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.3333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1939,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.6556
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=10

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	16.0	-2.0	14.0	18.0	10	8	2	0	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.1738	-3.0135	-1.8397	4.1873	10	5	5	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	-1.0	0.0	2.0	10	1	1	8	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 16.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 14.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 18.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 8,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1738,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0135,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.8397,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.1873,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	5	2	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.205	-1.0465	0.1585	2.2515	5	2	3	0	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	1.0	-3.0	-2.0	4.0	5	1	2	2	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.205,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0465,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1585,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.2515,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	9	4	5	0.4444
[0.550, 0.600)	5	1	4	0.2
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.2
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260902	15	0.5433	8.9333	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260902",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5433,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.9333,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	5	10	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 10,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260902_ATL@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 4 WAS

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 56.3% → blended 55.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4764

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.176125604676415-4.5156372790727595	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562934,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.549967,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7932,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.112,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4764
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0224919210652705
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022435049393664013
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02224305781476206
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022186815403280432
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019828688045059686
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04011787868161897,
      "1": 0.06866958494193476,
      "2": 0.10247696476192769,
      "3": 0.133328641639493,
      "4": 0.15123629342902337,
      "5": 0.14956293011477495,
      "6": 0.12895176014068804,
      "7": 0.09693172769277704,
      "8": 0.06352431670473767,
      "9": 0.0362952189448191,
      "10": 0.01807982441310567,
      "11": 0.007851892875180382,
      "12": 0.0029729656599193177
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.038406780957882976,
      "1": 0.06584054767484068,
      "2": 0.09870347879278177,
      "3": 0.12939723105198528,
      "4": 0.14834434833721308,
      "5": 0.14872039346710234,
      "6": 0.13038377321239375,
      "7": 0.09996087820335722,
      "8": 0.06701778647562884,
      "9": 0.03929195107325899,
      "10": 0.020145154770705612,
      "11": 0.009032149567856619,
      "12": 0.003541319669610092,
      "13": 0.001214206745382698
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0126,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4764,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5989,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4764,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.112,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0126,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.176125604676415,
      "home_runs": 4.5156372790727595,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_BAL@COL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 7 - 5 COL

Final confidence55.7%

Calibrationraw 60.9% → blended 57.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=527

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9515

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.839224380413658-3.6468040648239906	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.11467,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557335,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.442665,
    "away_win_probability": 0.557335
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.11467,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 7 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.5573350499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609052,
    "sample_size": 527,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.574926,
    "published_confidence": 0.557335,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0504,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.768,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9515
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019426262527304564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01940604183251709
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01850841168303031
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01848914637437315
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018013149383794804
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032871685444899434,
      "1": 0.05663969377243634,
      "2": 0.08621843102276364,
      "3": 0.1159470300556295,
      "4": 0.13775248331327838,
      "5": 0.14458376820553595,
      "6": 0.13406639653395272,
      "7": 0.10982485238501129,
      "8": 0.07948068740210258,
      "9": 0.050816283045597946,
      "10": 0.028702813618719753,
      "11": 0.01432274767541441,
      "12": 0.006314057109244881,
      "13": 0.0024590704154129803
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.025790248560798822,
      "1": 0.044739911097650735,
      "2": 0.0695018444173832,
      "3": 0.09668501460911948,
      "4": 0.12044357246853069,
      "5": 0.13435991306914047,
      "6": 0.13422005854025082,
      "7": 0.12006785657194095,
      "8": 0.0961828664412855,
      "9": 0.06899701429390402,
      "10": 0.044322526080037894,
      "11": 0.02549648634378085,
      "12": 0.0131340235080962,
      "13": 0.006058663998080596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0849,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9515,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5573,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6595,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5573,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9515,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.768,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0849,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 1.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 12,
        "median": 12,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.839224380413658,
      "home_runs": 3.6468040648239906,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_CHW@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreCHW 5 - 6 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 50.2% → blended 51.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4845

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.00764125885983-5.137311759013399	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.501649,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.519325,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6807,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.12,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4845
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019074235948962008
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018731314727963674
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018509512411247306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01817674392641087
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017509351417745796
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027380964973256167,
      "1": 0.04742563923135349,
      "2": 0.07333123011607759,
      "3": 0.10122227188304787,
      "4": 0.12473103449877407,
      "5": 0.13720953781202275,
      "6": 0.1347427516002439,
      "7": 0.11812392134199304,
      "8": 0.09244461816280561,
      "9": 0.06458575541069174,
      "10": 0.04028127304805463,
      "11": 0.022427505139559406,
      "12": 0.011147309918541426,
      "13": 0.004946186863578261
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028502618361858276,
      "1": 0.04931498473300458,
      "2": 0.07600528375609546,
      "3": 0.10434686436423293,
      "4": 0.12761030826977662,
      "5": 0.13901537934697905,
      "6": 0.13489960469515874,
      "7": 0.11660824026463154,
      "8": 0.08978805055679001,
      "9": 0.061585515345832655,
      "10": 0.03762784566003372,
      "11": 0.020479099901148663,
      "12": 0.009928487919458929,
      "13": 0.004287716824998707
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1027,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.05,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4845,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.591,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4845,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.12,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1027,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.00764125885983,
      "home_runs": 5.137311759013399,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_DET@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreDET 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence55.9%

Calibrationraw 71.3% → blended 63.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=304

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0017

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.428473966959268-3.3512731636158657	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.118232,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559116,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.559116,
    "away_win_probability": 0.440884
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.118232,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.559115528,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.712941,
    "sample_size": 304,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.63607,
    "published_confidence": 0.559116,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5035,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.94,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0017
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023480064702116554
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022678936550029588
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022595277184248495
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021824337543060963
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021701599429624546
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029295686593890643,
      "1": 0.05064865029786931,
      "2": 0.07788304270320762,
      "3": 0.10651941706599856,
      "4": 0.12957627466816093,
      "5": 0.14019516501232748,
      "6": 0.1349122608277756,
      "7": 0.11547305127623539,
      "8": 0.08790644174609567,
      "9": 0.05952118900127291,
      "10": 0.03584539188806105,
      "11": 0.019200206741428673,
      "12": 0.009147224014024787,
      "13": 0.003875998163651347
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.054738185797890124,
      "1": 0.09248083087489901,
      "2": 0.13271442804454728,
      "3": 0.16176689508540049,
      "4": 0.16748127298150356,
      "5": 0.14728141562428637,
      "6": 0.11001065228005302,
      "7": 0.06979537144940208,
      "8": 0.03761175507453738,
      "9": 0.0172157389670493,
      "10": 0.00669318504560852,
      "11": 0.0022102687748227594
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.01,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0017,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5557,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5591,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0017,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.94,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0325,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.428473966959268,
      "home_runs": 3.3512731636158657,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_MIA@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreMIA 5 - 4 KC

Final confidence55.6%

Calibrationraw 55.8% → blended 55.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=503

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3828

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.628370843277351-4.197550840886277	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.111216,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.555608,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.444392,
    "away_win_probability": 0.555608
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.111216,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.5556078499999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.558215,
    "sample_size": 503,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550457,
    "published_confidence": 0.555608,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8129,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.416,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3828
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026244374983930313
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025453423336385693
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02527860028687099
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024516755108360735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023616205283409488
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05539972679171645,
      "1": 0.09354352303834199,
      "2": 0.13400298307393957,
      "3": 0.16285828434419558,
      "4": 0.16791901926444472,
      "5": 0.14688740811856324,
      "6": 0.10900938537108731,
      "7": 0.06863377064969162,
      "8": 0.03666118276462934,
      "9": 0.01661382876006067,
      "10": 0.006387451748130354,
      "11": 0.0020834360751990533
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04344860968678904,
      "1": 0.074153216775863,
      "2": 0.10969195485414444,
      "3": 0.14064044315443425,
      "4": 0.15629185484105143,
      "5": 0.15054042357799488,
      "6": 0.12567838499261214,
      "7": 0.09094078904287824,
      "8": 0.057035796918974334,
      "9": 0.03100466042821696,
      "10": 0.014608213705733475,
      "11": 0.005965652021307847
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1191,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3828,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5556,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5648,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5556,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3828,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.416,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1191,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.628370843277351,
      "home_runs": 4.197550840886277,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_MIL@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 6 - 4 CHC

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 54.3% → blended 54.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1064

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.401624057491517-2.1453398407517184	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.079254,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539627,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.460373,
    "away_win_probability": 0.539627
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.079254,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.539627,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.543154,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.540077,
    "published_confidence": 0.539627,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 14.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3165,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.284,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1064
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021051345985589602
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020263798625938807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02003038789139679
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019551380610480094
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01928103537458151
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034098914083158564,
      "1": 0.05868725487888101,
      "2": 0.08902991997277519,
      "3": 0.11904663131031737,
      "4": 0.14030953277323643,
      "5": 0.14576262693930025,
      "6": 0.1334732191256101,
      "7": 0.10772860190535284,
      "8": 0.07664023938316018,
      "9": 0.04805865606111077,
      "10": 0.026562890455894533,
      "11": 0.012941004285231615,
      "12": 0.005557117390064723,
      "13": 0.002103391435906343
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03271535609510551,
      "1": 0.056378556815409986,
      "2": 0.08585850240912891,
      "3": 0.11554727695877834,
      "4": 0.13741785745764598,
      "5": 0.14442210892889565,
      "6": 0.1341316428018401,
      "7": 0.11008695431682222,
      "8": 0.07984496249473337,
      "9": 0.05117598819402487,
      "10": 0.028986248126091872,
      "11": 0.01450857720774231,
      "12": 0.0064174825515693045,
      "13": 0.002508485642211402
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0619,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.354,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1064,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5396,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5917,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5396,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1064,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.284,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0619,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.401624057491517,
      "home_runs": 2.1453398407517184,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_NYM@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreNYM 3 - 4 TB

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=527

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9101

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.533664968127471-4.464284737377758	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.097468,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548734,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.548734,
    "away_win_probability": 0.451266
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.097468,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.54873407,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 527,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5522,
    "published_confidence": 0.548734,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.049,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.652,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9101
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.035897516331078246
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03450397176694864
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03442669700671421
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03309024977086159
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031055910021627237
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06675692114740103,
      "1": 0.11159567118768277,
      "2": 0.15512541077934158,
      "3": 0.1793094120551827,
      "4": 0.17234860579320613,
      "5": 0.13775171313113405,
      "6": 0.09155262242085012,
      "7": 0.050597506492934125,
      "8": 0.023252624959533844,
      "9": 0.008885858744539744,
      "10": 0.0028236532881938782
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08972356122672477,
      "1": 0.14692893589133585,
      "2": 0.19199603976237092,
      "3": 0.20019872866478833,
      "4": 0.16657678152970573,
      "5": 0.11059913370005708,
      "6": 0.05859669086816708,
      "7": 0.024772997758952846,
      "8": 0.00835734138781774,
      "9": 0.0022497892100798392
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0666,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.652,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9101,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.67,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5487,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9101,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.652,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0666,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.533664968127471,
      "home_runs": 4.464284737377758,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_NYY@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 4 - 2 LAA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 60.3% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=296

H2H base featurehome net 17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.3336

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.66681132721075-3.3025991969782207	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.603408,
    "sample_size": 296,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.585504,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0981,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0981,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.6403,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.764,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.3336
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03062270608800596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02843838491794808
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02832449426756646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02795209173138194
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02748828644738159
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07513796715711342,
      "1": 0.12468254036938568,
      "2": 0.169522243784898,
      "3": 0.18885243562712942,
      "4": 0.17238256440086422,
      "5": 0.12892553207577914,
      "6": 0.07900587299542967,
      "7": 0.03966931202654531,
      "8": 0.016320174935831478,
      "9": 0.005501356627023601
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04844469052003733,
      "1": 0.0823085484742495,
      "2": 0.12012230584485581,
      "3": 0.15058521656610707,
      "4": 0.16215150197198136,
      "5": 0.14998214967950105,
      "6": 0.11916209569350476,
      "7": 0.0813236104369721,
      "8": 0.04767329067524782,
      "9": 0.024005655522423494,
      "10": 0.010383217930657029,
      "11": 0.0038577166844626174
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0205,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.694,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3336,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6599,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.3336,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.764,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0205,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_OAK@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreOAK 4 - 5 TEX

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 67.3% → blended 61.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=299

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9752

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.630369962088607-4.067945698477453	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.673275,
    "sample_size": 299,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5619,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.617587,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3237,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.328,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9752
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024085501927257332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023828754499992822
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022875664218402692
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02263181345902138
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02250153240841142
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030550785402105648,
      "1": 0.0527555748519344,
      "2": 0.08083300909156532,
      "3": 0.10989641847267738,
      "4": 0.13257228389689252,
      "5": 0.14190455749164407,
      "6": 0.1347765563717076,
      "7": 0.11358128400875823,
      "8": 0.08493243953940782,
      "9": 0.05635271305840755,
      "10": 0.033176492318181844,
      "11": 0.017330875835106795,
      "12": 0.008033133065960568,
      "13": 0.003303876595650031
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05860110133006224,
      "1": 0.09866842810530385,
      "2": 0.1401451103393482,
      "3": 0.16792099507724378,
      "4": 0.16973029163404837,
      "5": 0.14472415571586095,
      "6": 0.10409982535087846,
      "7": 0.06316642325937298,
      "8": 0.032333288711971594,
      "9": 0.013961779771329093,
      "10": 0.0050857966964486905,
      "11": 0.0015628040081318649
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0574,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.398,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9752,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.665,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9752,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.328,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0574,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.630369962088607,
      "home_runs": 4.067945698477453,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_PHI@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 5 - 4 ARI

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 60.6% → blended 57.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=528

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4815

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.566250584739289-5.649520245507201	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06025,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.530125,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.469875,
    "away_win_probability": 0.530125
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06025,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.530124782,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.60552,
    "sample_size": 528,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5436,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57456,
    "published_confidence": 0.530125,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3508,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.724,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4815
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02245692247483118
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021714592864763346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021342574786461788
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02088693432105629
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020637080735046942
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.042973915191649247,
      "1": 0.0733746797437481,
      "2": 0.10868073171807317,
      "3": 0.13964452963287385,
      "4": 0.15565401949458074,
      "5": 0.15050876471951516,
      "6": 0.12624909725689146,
      "7": 0.09186705834873324,
      "8": 0.057990436494754855,
      "9": 0.031755428983009204,
      "10": 0.015084976189738997,
      "11": 0.006216362226431915
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032574900354846587,
      "1": 0.05614387572780565,
      "2": 0.08553477490022965,
      "3": 0.11518716183024645,
      "4": 0.13711547479315078,
      "5": 0.1442746068990081,
      "6": 0.1341882104225615,
      "7": 0.11032142323285678,
      "8": 0.08017267686463514,
      "9": 0.05150079656732407,
      "10": 0.029243041587345888,
      "11": 0.014677502767381282,
      "12": 0.006511826691301348,
      "13": 0.0025537273613067406
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0178,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4815,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5301,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5986,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5301,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4815,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.724,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0178,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.566250584739289,
      "home_runs": 5.649520245507201,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_SD@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSD

Published scoreSD 5 - 4 CIN

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 62.6% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=443

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6789

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.937485898252488-3.009365777760528	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.625763,
    "sample_size": 443,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.553,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.589382,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.982,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.116,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6789
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022896789121202077
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021665189766439268
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021623042929981247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02141074855671936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020922692343366602
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04587512063726757,
      "1": 0.07812294413527517,
      "2": 0.11480616106358921,
      "3": 0.14559182815538277,
      "4": 0.1593287007396532,
      "5": 0.15046526033999585,
      "6": 0.12262066811241781,
      "7": 0.08623356212702663,
      "8": 0.05233282574512535,
      "9": 0.027406732155117113,
      "10": 0.012385842025403248,
      "11": 0.0048303547637459756
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03205323997887774,
      "1": 0.05527176102887365,
      "2": 0.08432956282466368,
      "3": 0.11384175330713511,
      "4": 0.13597794788925502,
      "5": 0.14370787569915583,
      "6": 0.13438099009986293,
      "7": 0.11118348520978831,
      "8": 0.0813931601186491,
      "9": 0.052720645300756305,
      "10": 0.03021472906721875,
      "11": 0.015321520664470688,
      "12": 0.006874327494937472,
      "13": 0.002729001316355293
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.043,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.186,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6789,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5854,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6789,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.116,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.043,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.937485898252488,
      "home_runs": 3.009365777760528,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_SEA@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreSEA 4 - 5 BOS

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=360

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8523

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.576334226192713-4.135153837417999	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.039394,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519697,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519697,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480303
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.039394,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.519697373,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.536283,
    "sample_size": 360,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5417,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.538992,
    "published_confidence": 0.519697,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2014,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8523
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025429843629858215
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02412824602634093
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02385123415671791
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023361493826184073
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02315261951831249
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04529639444698781,
      "1": 0.07717767031802739,
      "2": 0.11359473526163637,
      "3": 0.14443194197021567,
      "4": 0.15863784642399908,
      "5": 0.15051814880658312,
      "6": 0.12336996435100929,
      "7": 0.08735112810487991,
      "8": 0.05342765401747101,
      "9": 0.028229435894437674,
      "10": 0.012884773917300158,
      "11": 0.005080306487452561
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04672067236075659,
      "1": 0.07950233868656416,
      "2": 0.11656678300643633,
      "3": 0.14726305451565871,
      "4": 0.1603012408646209,
      "5": 0.15035021398972825,
      "6": 0.12150532278643181,
      "7": 0.08460784684632675,
      "8": 0.05076332597881781,
      "9": 0.026243006114879945,
      "10": 0.011689641188598393,
      "11": 0.004486553661180378
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0352,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.274,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8523,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5197,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5659,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5197,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8523,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0352,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.576334226192713,
      "home_runs": 4.135153837417999,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_SF@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scoreSF 5 - 6 PIT

Final confidence54.6%

Calibrationraw 52.8% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=450

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4514

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.476947071239017-4.5755177745174205	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.09118,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54559,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54559,
    "away_win_probability": 0.45441
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.09118,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.54558975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.527595,
    "sample_size": 450,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5422,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.534898,
    "published_confidence": 0.54559,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8237,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.24,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4514
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018305771157581495
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018121123373385527
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01794442930549237
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01776342632662862
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016665410482422247
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.024663916932025857,
      "1": 0.04282950154015948,
      "2": 0.06673726108742398,
      "3": 0.09331213502951999,
      "4": 0.11707179085983285,
      "5": 0.13179859646323827,
      "6": 0.13314157715464608,
      "7": 0.12068714038511295,
      "8": 0.09816409907034729,
      "9": 0.07164547416099773,
      "10": 0.04692121242464728,
      "11": 0.027573638532625056,
      "12": 0.014539963579405624,
      "13": 0.006879817967849016,
      "14": 0.002921022917744518,
      "15": 0.0011128518944238564
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027549285822900064,
      "1": 0.047709396815154105,
      "2": 0.07373388462455888,
      "3": 0.1016950730039212,
      "4": 0.12517059538107397,
      "5": 0.1374910193253836,
      "6": 0.13477705228509967,
      "7": 0.11790363203314558,
      "8": 0.09204665740408116,
      "9": 0.06412959077311017,
      "10": 0.03987296424328698,
      "11": 0.02212423109274779,
      "12": 0.010955380277863047,
      "13": 0.004841236917673855
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1461,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.24,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4514,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5456,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6223,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5456,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4514,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.24,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1461,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.476947071239017,
      "home_runs": 4.5755177745174205,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_STL@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 67.3% → blended 61.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=323

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9876

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.5840103380174275-5.478105483237325	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.672947,
    "sample_size": 323,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.612023,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2911,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.424,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9876
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022088002705338085
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021433215702268388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02092295109810337
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020302701425570058
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020276510435096953
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028506308451194645,
      "1": 0.04932119440124411,
      "2": 0.07601404558803161,
      "3": 0.10435704313316659,
      "4": 0.12761958852839544,
      "5": 0.13902105225118602,
      "6": 0.13489984765964771,
      "7": 0.11660307501484884,
      "8": 0.0897792978594722,
      "9": 0.06157579987248396,
      "10": 0.03761937500583168,
      "11": 0.020472965124724397,
      "12": 0.00992470424518175,
      "13": 0.004285702864590988
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04549931179941856,
      "1": 0.07750921722920635,
      "2": 0.11402008662321196,
      "3": 0.1448401196080139,
      "4": 0.1588824307373896,
      "5": 0.15050203375168938,
      "6": 0.12310858917690223,
      "7": 0.08695885896918525,
      "8": 0.05304186712064841,
      "9": 0.027938511644012936,
      "10": 0.012707707858042814,
      "11": 0.004991265482278758
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0157,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.249,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9876,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6412,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9876,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.424,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0157,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.5840103380174275,
      "home_runs": 5.478105483237325,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260902_TOR@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCLE

Published scoreTOR 2 - 3 CLE

Final confidence58.4%

Calibrationraw 73.2% → blended 64.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=257

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5563

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.4783992315246195-3.4384386912583347	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.167644,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.583822,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.583822,
    "away_win_probability": 0.416178
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.167644,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5838221018749999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.731946,
    "sample_size": 257,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5603,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.646123,
    "published_confidence": 0.583822,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0187,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0187,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4445,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.764,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5563
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03840591041724317
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03651225829278504
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034469027622063685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0342888317125663
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03259817737545322
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05219328649508345,
      "1": 0.08838106288134694,
      "2": 0.12769544147064615,
      "3": 0.1574211807625694,
      "4": 0.1655855882061006,
      "5": 0.14861187123764166,
      "6": 0.1138036176812858,
      "7": 0.07435843337858432,
      "8": 0.041454911510368536,
      "9": 0.01971938433245034,
      "10": 0.008003543477664994,
      "11": 0.0027716785662577183
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12272168180844156,
      "1": 0.19482255946742985,
      "2": 0.23193993410489455,
      "3": 0.20707618388798293,
      "4": 0.13864464980894636,
      "5": 0.06961365169504495,
      "6": 0.026212235154758682,
      "7": 0.007401709457643976,
      "8": 0.0015673946148570888
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0787,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.764,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5563,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5838,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5736,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5838,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5563,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.764,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0787,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-02T21:35:17.249152+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.4783992315246195,
      "home_runs": 3.4384386912583347,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260902	20260902_ATL@WAS	ATL	53.0%	56.3%	53.7%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	9-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.562934, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.549967, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7932, "recent_quality_edge": 0.112, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4764 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0224919210652705 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022435049393664013 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02224305781476206 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022186815403280432 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019828688045059686 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04011787868161897, "1": 0.06866958494193476, "2": 0.10247696476192769, "3": 0.133328641639493, "4": 0.15123629342902337, "5": 0.14956293011477495, "6": 0.12895176014068804, "7": 0.09693172769277704, "8": 0.06352431670473767, "9": 0.0362952189448191, "10": 0.01807982441310567, "11": 0.007851892875180382, "12": 0.0029729656599193177 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.038406780957882976, "1": 0.06584054767484068, "2": 0.09870347879278177, "3": 0.12939723105198528, "4": 0.14834434833721308, "5": 0.14872039346710234, "6": 0.13038377321239375, "7": 0.09996087820335722, "8": 0.06701778647562884, "9": 0.03929195107325899, "10": 0.020145154770705612, "11": 0.009032149567856619, "12": 0.003541319669610092, "13": 0.001214206745382698 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0126, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.098, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4764, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_BAL@COL	BAL	55.7%	60.9%	54.1%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	5-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609052, "sample_size": 527, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.574926, "published_confidence": 0.557335, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0075, "away_run_delta": -0.0075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0504, "recent_quality_edge": -0.768, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9515 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019426262527304564 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01940604183251709 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01850841168303031 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01848914637437315 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018013149383794804 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.032871685444899434, "1": 0.05663969377243634, "2": 0.08621843102276364, "3": 0.1159470300556295, "4": 0.13775248331327838, "5": 0.14458376820553595, "6": 0.13406639653395272, "7": 0.10982485238501129, "8": 0.07948068740210258, "9": 0.050816283045597946, "10": 0.028702813618719753, "11": 0.01432274767541441, "12": 0.006314057109244881, "13": 0.0024590704154129803 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.025790248560798822, "1": 0.044739911097650735, "2": 0.0695018444173832, "3": 0.09668501460911948, "4": 0.12044357246853069, "5": 0.13435991306914047, "6": 0.13422005854025082, "7": 0.12006785657194095, "8": 0.0961828664412855, "9": 0.06899701429390402, "10": 0.044322526080037894, "11": 0.02549648634378085, "12": 0.0131340235080962, "13": 0.006058663998080596 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 5 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 5 COL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0849, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.768, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9515, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_CHW@HOU	HOU	53.0%	50.2%	53.7%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	0-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1297)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.501649, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.519325, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6807, "recent_quality_edge": -0.12, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4845 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019074235948962008 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018731314727963674 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018509512411247306 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01817674392641087 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017509351417745796 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.027380964973256167, "1": 0.04742563923135349, "2": 0.07333123011607759, "3": 0.10122227188304787, "4": 0.12473103449877407, "5": 0.13720953781202275, "6": 0.1347427516002439, "7": 0.11812392134199304, "8": 0.09244461816280561, "9": 0.06458575541069174, "10": 0.04028127304805463, "11": 0.022427505139559406, "12": 0.011147309918541426, "13": 0.004946186863578261 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.028502618361858276, "1": 0.04931498473300458, "2": 0.07600528375609546, "3": 0.10434686436423293, "4": 0.12761030826977662, "5": 0.13901537934697905, "6": 0.13489960469515874, "7": 0.11660824026463154, "8": 0.08978805055679001, "9": 0.061585515345832655, "10": 0.03762784566003372, "11": 0.020479099901148663, "12": 0.009928487919458929, "13": 0.004287716824998707 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1027, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.05, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4845, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_DET@MIN	MIN	55.9%	71.3%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	11-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.712941, "sample_size": 304, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.63607, "published_confidence": 0.559116, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 1.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0462, "away_run_delta": -0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 13.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5035, "recent_quality_edge": 0.94, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0017 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023480064702116554 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022678936550029588 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022595277184248495 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021824337543060963 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021701599429624546 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029295686593890643, "1": 0.05064865029786931, "2": 0.07788304270320762, "3": 0.10651941706599856, "4": 0.12957627466816093, "5": 0.14019516501232748, "6": 0.1349122608277756, "7": 0.11547305127623539, "8": 0.08790644174609567, "9": 0.05952118900127291, "10": 0.03584539188806105, "11": 0.019200206741428673, "12": 0.009147224014024787, "13": 0.003875998163651347 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.054738185797890124, "1": 0.09248083087489901, "2": 0.13271442804454728, "3": 0.16176689508540049, "4": 0.16748127298150356, "5": 0.14728141562428637, "6": 0.11001065228005302, "7": 0.06979537144940208, "8": 0.03761175507453738, "9": 0.0172157389670493, "10": 0.00669318504560852, "11": 0.0022102687748227594 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "DET 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.01, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0017, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_MIA@KC	MIA	55.6%	55.8%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	9-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.5692)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.558215, "sample_size": 503, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550457, "published_confidence": 0.555608, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.025, "away_run_delta": 0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8129, "recent_quality_edge": 0.416, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3828 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026244374983930313 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025453423336385693 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02527860028687099 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024516755108360735 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023616205283409488 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05539972679171645, "1": 0.09354352303834199, "2": 0.13400298307393957, "3": 0.16285828434419558, "4": 0.16791901926444472, "5": 0.14688740811856324, "6": 0.10900938537108731, "7": 0.06863377064969162, "8": 0.03666118276462934, "9": 0.01661382876006067, "10": 0.006387451748130354, "11": 0.0020834360751990533 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04344860968678904, "1": 0.074153216775863, "2": 0.10969195485414444, "3": 0.14064044315443425, "4": 0.15629185484105143, "5": 0.15054042357799488, "6": 0.12567838499261214, "7": 0.09094078904287824, "8": 0.057035796918974334, "9": 0.03100466042821696, "10": 0.014608213705733475, "11": 0.005965652021307847 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1191, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.066, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3828, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_MIL@CHC	MIL	54.0%	54.3%	53.7%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	9-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.543154, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.540077, "published_confidence": 0.539627, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 14.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3165, "recent_quality_edge": 0.284, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1064 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021051345985589602 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020263798625938807 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02003038789139679 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019551380610480094 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01928103537458151 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.034098914083158564, "1": 0.05868725487888101, "2": 0.08902991997277519, "3": 0.11904663131031737, "4": 0.14030953277323643, "5": 0.14576262693930025, "6": 0.1334732191256101, "7": 0.10772860190535284, "8": 0.07664023938316018, "9": 0.04805865606111077, "10": 0.026562890455894533, "11": 0.012941004285231615, "12": 0.005557117390064723, "13": 0.002103391435906343 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03271535609510551, "1": 0.056378556815409986, "2": 0.08585850240912891, "3": 0.11554727695877834, "4": 0.13741785745764598, "5": 0.14442210892889565, "6": 0.1341316428018401, "7": 0.11008695431682222, "8": 0.07984496249473337, "9": 0.05117598819402487, "10": 0.028986248126091872, "11": 0.01450857720774231, "12": 0.0064174825515693045, "13": 0.002508485642211402 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 CHC", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0619, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.354, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1064, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_NYM@TB	TB	54.9%	56.4%	54.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	10-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 527, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5522, "published_confidence": 0.548734, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0225, "away_run_delta": -0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.049, "recent_quality_edge": 0.652, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9101 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.035897516331078246 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03450397176694864 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03442669700671421 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03309024977086159 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031055910021627237 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06675692114740103, "1": 0.11159567118768277, "2": 0.15512541077934158, "3": 0.1793094120551827, "4": 0.17234860579320613, "5": 0.13775171313113405, "6": 0.09155262242085012, "7": 0.050597506492934125, "8": 0.023252624959533844, "9": 0.008885858744539744, "10": 0.0028236532881938782 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08972356122672477, "1": 0.14692893589133585, "2": 0.19199603976237092, "3": 0.20019872866478833, "4": 0.16657678152970573, "5": 0.11059913370005708, "6": 0.05859669086816708, "7": 0.024772997758952846, "8": 0.00835734138781774, "9": 0.0022497892100798392 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0666, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.652, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9101, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_NYY@LAA	NYY	53.0%	60.3%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	6-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.603408, "sample_size": 296, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.585504, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": 3.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0981, "away_run_delta": -0.0981, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.6403, "recent_quality_edge": -0.764, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.3336 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03062270608800596 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02843838491794808 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02832449426756646 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02795209173138194 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02748828644738159 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07513796715711342, "1": 0.12468254036938568, "2": 0.169522243784898, "3": 0.18885243562712942, "4": 0.17238256440086422, "5": 0.12892553207577914, "6": 0.07900587299542967, "7": 0.03966931202654531, "8": 0.016320174935831478, "9": 0.005501356627023601 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04844469052003733, "1": 0.0823085484742495, "2": 0.12012230584485581, "3": 0.15058521656610707, "4": 0.16215150197198136, "5": 0.14998214967950105, "6": 0.11916209569350476, "7": 0.0813236104369721, "8": 0.04767329067524782, "9": 0.024005655522423494, "10": 0.010383217930657029, "11": 0.0038577166844626174 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0205, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.694, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.3336, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_OAK@TEX	TEX	56.0%	67.3%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	9-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.673275, "sample_size": 299, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5619, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.617587, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3237, "recent_quality_edge": 0.328, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9752 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024085501927257332 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023828754499992822 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022875664218402692 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02263181345902138 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02250153240841142 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.030550785402105648, "1": 0.0527555748519344, "2": 0.08083300909156532, "3": 0.10989641847267738, "4": 0.13257228389689252, "5": 0.14190455749164407, "6": 0.1347765563717076, "7": 0.11358128400875823, "8": 0.08493243953940782, "9": 0.05635271305840755, "10": 0.033176492318181844, "11": 0.017330875835106795, "12": 0.008033133065960568, "13": 0.003303876595650031 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05860110133006224, "1": 0.09866842810530385, "2": 0.1401451103393482, "3": 0.16792099507724378, "4": 0.16973029163404837, "5": 0.14472415571586095, "6": 0.10409982535087846, "7": 0.06316642325937298, "8": 0.032333288711971594, "9": 0.013961779771329093, "10": 0.0050857966964486905, "11": 0.0015628040081318649 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 5 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0574, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.398, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9752, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_PHI@ARI	PHI	53.0%	60.6%	54.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	0-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.60552, "sample_size": 528, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5436, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.57456, "published_confidence": 0.530125, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3508, "recent_quality_edge": -0.724, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4815 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02245692247483118 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021714592864763346 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021342574786461788 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02088693432105629 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020637080735046942 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.042973915191649247, "1": 0.0733746797437481, "2": 0.10868073171807317, "3": 0.13964452963287385, "4": 0.15565401949458074, "5": 0.15050876471951516, "6": 0.12624909725689146, "7": 0.09186705834873324, "8": 0.057990436494754855, "9": 0.031755428983009204, "10": 0.015084976189738997, "11": 0.006216362226431915 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.032574900354846587, "1": 0.05614387572780565, "2": 0.08553477490022965, "3": 0.11518716183024645, "4": 0.13711547479315078, "5": 0.1442746068990081, "6": 0.1341882104225615, "7": 0.11032142323285678, "8": 0.08017267686463514, "9": 0.05150079656732407, "10": 0.029243041587345888, "11": 0.014677502767381282, "12": 0.006511826691301348, "13": 0.0025537273613067406 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 ARI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0178, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.794, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4815, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_SD@CIN	SD	53.0%	62.6%	55.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.625763, "sample_size": 443, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.553, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.589382, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.982, "recent_quality_edge": -0.116, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6789 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022896789121202077 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021665189766439268 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021623042929981247 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02141074855671936 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020922692343366602 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04587512063726757, "1": 0.07812294413527517, "2": 0.11480616106358921, "3": 0.14559182815538277, "4": 0.1593287007396532, "5": 0.15046526033999585, "6": 0.12262066811241781, "7": 0.08623356212702663, "8": 0.05233282574512535, "9": 0.027406732155117113, "10": 0.012385842025403248, "11": 0.0048303547637459756 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03205323997887774, "1": 0.05527176102887365, "2": 0.08432956282466368, "3": 0.11384175330713511, "4": 0.13597794788925502, "5": 0.14370787569915583, "6": 0.13438099009986293, "7": 0.11118348520978831, "8": 0.0813931601186491, "9": 0.052720645300756305, "10": 0.03021472906721875, "11": 0.015321520664470688, "12": 0.006874327494937472, "13": 0.002729001316355293 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 CIN", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.043, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.186, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6789, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_SEA@BOS	BOS	52.0%	53.6%	54.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	8-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.536283, "sample_size": 360, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5417, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.538992, "published_confidence": 0.519697, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2014, "recent_quality_edge": 0.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8523 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025429843629858215 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02412824602634093 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02385123415671791 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023361493826184073 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02315261951831249 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04529639444698781, "1": 0.07717767031802739, "2": 0.11359473526163637, "3": 0.14443194197021567, "4": 0.15863784642399908, "5": 0.15051814880658312, "6": 0.12336996435100929, "7": 0.08735112810487991, "8": 0.05342765401747101, "9": 0.028229435894437674, "10": 0.012884773917300158, "11": 0.005080306487452561 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04672067236075659, "1": 0.07950233868656416, "2": 0.11656678300643633, "3": 0.14726305451565871, "4": 0.1603012408646209, "5": 0.15035021398972825, "6": 0.12150532278643181, "7": 0.08460784684632675, "8": 0.05076332597881781, "9": 0.026243006114879945, "10": 0.011689641188598393, "11": 0.004486553661180378 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0352, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.274, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8523, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_SF@PIT	PIT	54.6%	52.8%	54.2%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	5-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.527595, "sample_size": 450, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5422, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.534898, "published_confidence": 0.54559, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0437, "away_run_delta": -0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8237, "recent_quality_edge": -0.24, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4514 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018305771157581495 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018121123373385527 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01794442930549237 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01776342632662862 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016665410482422247 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.024663916932025857, "1": 0.04282950154015948, "2": 0.06673726108742398, "3": 0.09331213502951999, "4": 0.11707179085983285, "5": 0.13179859646323827, "6": 0.13314157715464608, "7": 0.12068714038511295, "8": 0.09816409907034729, "9": 0.07164547416099773, "10": 0.04692121242464728, "11": 0.027573638532625056, "12": 0.014539963579405624, "13": 0.006879817967849016, "14": 0.002921022917744518, "15": 0.0011128518944238564 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.027549285822900064, "1": 0.047709396815154105, "2": 0.07373388462455888, "3": 0.1016950730039212, "4": 0.12517059538107397, "5": 0.1374910193253836, "6": 0.13477705228509967, "7": 0.11790363203314558, "8": 0.09204665740408116, "9": 0.06412959077311017, "10": 0.03987296424328698, "11": 0.02212423109274779, "12": 0.010955380277863047, "13": 0.004841236917673855 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 5 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1461, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.24, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4514, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_STL@LAD	LAD	53.0%	67.3%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	8-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.672947, "sample_size": 323, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.612023, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.05, "away_run_delta": 0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2911, "recent_quality_edge": 0.424, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9876 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022088002705338085 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021433215702268388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02092295109810337 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020302701425570058 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020276510435096953 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028506308451194645, "1": 0.04932119440124411, "2": 0.07601404558803161, "3": 0.10435704313316659, "4": 0.12761958852839544, "5": 0.13902105225118602, "6": 0.13489984765964771, "7": 0.11660307501484884, "8": 0.0897792978594722, "9": 0.06157579987248396, "10": 0.03761937500583168, "11": 0.020472965124724397, "12": 0.00992470424518175, "13": 0.004285702864590988 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04549931179941856, "1": 0.07750921722920635, "2": 0.11402008662321196, "3": 0.1448401196080139, "4": 0.1588824307373896, "5": 0.15050203375168938, "6": 0.12310858917690223, "7": 0.08695885896918525, "8": 0.05304186712064841, "9": 0.027938511644012936, "10": 0.012707707858042814, "11": 0.004991265482278758 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0157, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.249, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9876, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260902	20260902_TOR@CLE	CLE	58.4%	73.2%	56.0%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	11-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.731946, "sample_size": 257, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5603, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.646123, "published_confidence": 0.583822, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0187, "away_run_delta": -0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4445, "recent_quality_edge": 0.764, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.5563 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03840591041724317 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03651225829278504 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.034469027622063685 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0342888317125663 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03259817737545322 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05219328649508345, "1": 0.08838106288134694, "2": 0.12769544147064615, "3": 0.1574211807625694, "4": 0.1655855882061006, "5": 0.14861187123764166, "6": 0.1138036176812858, "7": 0.07435843337858432, "8": 0.041454911510368536, "9": 0.01971938433245034, "10": 0.008003543477664994, "11": 0.0027716785662577183 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.12272168180844156, "1": 0.19482255946742985, "2": 0.23193993410489455, "3": 0.20707618388798293, "4": 0.13864464980894636, "5": 0.06961365169504495, "6": 0.026212235154758682, "7": 0.007401709457643976, "8": 0.0015673946148570888 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0787, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.764, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5563, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3 }
R	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0667 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.8, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.7333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.5, "mae_innings": 1.1667, "bias_outs": 0.8333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260902

20260902_ATL@WAS

away

Grant Holmes

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-2

2/0

1/0

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.3698979591836735,
      "IP": 130.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.872,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3503,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0298,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
      "walk_factor": 1.017,
      "homer_factor": 1.0705,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 79,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 392.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 78.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0375,
            "WHIP": 1.2375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 798.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 79.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3312,
            "WHIP": 1.3052,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37013,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0974
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.2,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 105.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 565.0,
            "Pitches": 2110.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0741,
            "R": 2.1481,
            "H": 4.4815,
            "BB": 2.1481,
            "SO": 3.8889,
            "HR": 0.7037,
            "BF": 20.9259,
            "Pitches": 78.1481
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.3699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92602,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44388,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80357,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14541
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.986,
        "predicted_H": 4.704,
        "predicted_BB": 1.942,
        "predicted_SO": 3.619,
        "predicted_HR": 0.463,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4866,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2963
      }
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8836852310998782,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "before": 1.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5899,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 535.0,
        "run_differential": 109.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7842,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6331,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8489,
        "offense_index": 1.0313,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4752,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1631,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2128,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0496,
        "offense_index": 1.1603,
        "defense_index": 0.8897,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0339
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2085,
        "offense_edge": 0.0313,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1603,
        "defense_strength": 0.1673,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1103,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0069,
        "run_prevention": 0.9985,
        "strikeout": 0.9934
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656550",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656550",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 505.0,
            "k_percent": 18.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.6931,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6382,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4669,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1582,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -0.2125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0246
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656550",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5893886602285,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4253815918858,
                "release_spin_rate": 2458.5893886602285,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4254,
              "release_spin_rate": 2458.5894,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0246,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.1759,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3503,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0298,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
          "walk_factor": 1.017,
          "homer_factor": 1.0705,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "656550",
            "espn_id": 33840,
            "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 79,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 79,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 276,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 71,
              "era_value": 3.7072,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 36,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 128.2,
              "ip_rank": 70,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 79,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 39,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 19,
              "k_value": 103.0,
              "k_rank": 87,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2046633,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.3367,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0298,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0298,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.017,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0705,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_ATL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_ATL@WAS

home

Brad Lord

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-3

4/2

1/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7464114832535884,
      "WHIP": 1.1913875598086123,
      "IP": 69.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.083,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0129,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
      "walk_factor": 1.005,
      "homer_factor": 0.9804,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 166,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 69.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.746,
      "season_WHIP": 1.191,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.987,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7367,
        "prior_weight": 0.2633
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695418",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 46.0,
            "Pitches": 197.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 9.2,
            "Pitches": 39.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 399.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 9.0,
            "Pitches": 39.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7143,
            "WHIP": 1.7143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 69.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 297.0,
            "Pitches": 1237.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8788,
            "R": 0.9091,
            "H": 1.6667,
            "BB": 0.8485,
            "SO": 1.9394,
            "HR": 0.2424,
            "BF": 9.0,
            "Pitches": 37.4848
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7464,
            "WHIP": 1.1914,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41627,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40191,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91866,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11483
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.5,
        "predicted_H": 2.166,
        "predicted_BB": 1.584,
        "predicted_SO": 2.88,
        "predicted_HR": 0.396,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8373,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3441
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7367,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.987,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7367,
        "prior_weight": 0.2633
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.5,
          "final": 2.1919,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.166,
          "final": 3.0119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.584,
          "final": 1.3146,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.88,
          "final": 3.8578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.396,
          "final": 0.2133,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8373,
          "final": 4.8373,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3441,
          "final": 1.3441,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 7.7142857142857135,
        "WHIP": 1.7142857142857142,
        "K9": 9.642857142857142,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714284,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2359102828105317,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.987,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7367,
          "prior_weight": 0.2633
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695418",
      "player_name": "Brad Lord",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 141,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4752,
        "runs_scored": 735.0,
        "runs_allowed": 712.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1631,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2128,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0496,
        "offense_index": 1.1603,
        "defense_index": 0.8897,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0339
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5899,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 535.0,
        "run_differential": 109.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7842,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6331,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8489,
        "offense_index": 1.0313,
        "defense_index": 1.1673,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2424
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2085,
        "offense_edge": 0.1603,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0313,
        "defense_strength": -0.1103,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1673,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9871,
        "run_prevention": 1.0265,
        "strikeout": 0.9912
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695418",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695418",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 264.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.046,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.304,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2982,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7429,
            "bb_edge": -0.0625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.038
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695418",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 35,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 35,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.54365826417965,
              "release_spin_rate": 2442.8949820073776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 35,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.54365826417965,
                "release_spin_rate": 2442.8949820073776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5437,
              "release_spin_rate": 2442.895,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.038,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2715,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0129,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9989,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.968,
          "walk_factor": 1.005,
          "homer_factor": 0.9804,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695418",
            "espn_id": 4866810,
            "player_name": "Brad Lord",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 166,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 166,
              "gp_value": 33.0,
              "gp_rank": 192,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 229,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.7464,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 134,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 316,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 133,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 145,
              "ip_value": 69.2,
              "ip_rank": 176,
              "h_value": 55.0,
              "h_rank": 200,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 185,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 196,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 172,
              "k_value": 64.0,
              "k_rank": 195,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.267942,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.1913,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.02,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_ATL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_BAL@COL

away

Trevor Rogers

True

5.2

6.2

-3

5/6

1/0

4/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.380145278450364,
      "WHIP": 1.2493946731234868,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.507,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0865,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9926,
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    "espn_rank": {
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.98063,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.3183,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2006,
          "final": 1.2006,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 139,
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        "win_pct": 0.4964,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1367,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 790.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0144,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6835,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
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          "run_differential": -10.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0099,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0071
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6649,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0383
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218174875824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 91,
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                "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1806,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0383,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.2738,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0865,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9926,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669432",
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            "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
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            "espn_rank": 147,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 25.0,
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              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 36,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_value": 135.0,
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              "er_rank": 31,
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              "k_rank": 58,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.910412,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.2493,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.945,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 4,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_BAL@COL

home

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

4.2

6.0

4/6

1/1

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.228116710875331,
      "WHIP": 1.3607427055702916,
      "IP": 125.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.236,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.112,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0945,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
      "walk_factor": 0.925,
      "homer_factor": 1.198,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 13.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.368,
      "xwoba": 0.392,
      "barrel_percent": 12.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 17.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 128,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.6087,
            "WHIP": 1.8261,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "H_per_IP": 1.6087,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21739,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73913,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 87.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1911,
            "WHIP": 1.3949,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6879,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26115,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13376,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26752
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 540.0,
            "Pitches": 2083.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0417,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 5.9167,
            "BB": 1.2083,
            "SO": 3.125,
            "HR": 1.125,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 86.7917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2281,
            "WHIP": 1.3607,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5809,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12997,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59682,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21485
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.707,
        "predicted_H": 6.632,
        "predicted_BB": 1.115,
        "predicted_SO": 3.642,
        "predicted_HR": 1.184,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.6356,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5409
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.707,
          "final": 3.4081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.632,
          "final": 5.5191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.115,
          "final": 1.0664,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.642,
          "final": 3.3705,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.184,
          "final": 1.529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.6356,
          "final": 6.6356,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5409,
          "final": 1.5409,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 66,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 6.19108280254777,
        "WHIP": 1.394904458598726,
        "K9": 5.8471337579617835,
        "HR9": 2.4076433121019107,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.207668294215107,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3813,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 790.0,
        "run_differential": -141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0144,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6691,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6835,
        "offense_index": 1.0403,
        "defense_index": 0.7897,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -10.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 70,
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        "runs_scored": 630.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": -19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1367,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5324,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6691,
        "offense_index": 1.0099,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0502
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0403,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0099,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0399,
        "strikeout": 0.9888
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 13.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.368,
            "xwoba": 0.392,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7647,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.2198,
            "whiff_percent": 17.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5294,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6918,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -1.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8143,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0892
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.27152055516693,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.6362856997916,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2715,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.6363,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0892,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6374,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.112,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0945,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
          "walk_factor": 0.925,
          "homer_factor": 1.198,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_id": 4142423,
            "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 128,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 128,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 318,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 61,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 5.2281,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 15,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 125.2,
              "ip_rank": 77,
              "h_value": 142.0,
              "h_rank": 21,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 14,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 5,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 160,
              "k_value": 75.0,
              "k_rank": 155,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.3713527,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.3607,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.3,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0945,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0945,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.925,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.198,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9126,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_BAL@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_CHW@HOU

away

Davis Martin

True

5.0

5.2

-5

4/5

3/1

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.32,
      "WHIP": 1.328,
      "IP": 125.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.208,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.8,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2427,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0206,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
      "walk_factor": 0.965,
      "homer_factor": 1.0454,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 80,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 68.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.9474,
            "WHIP": 1.6316,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "H_per_IP": 1.31579,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73684,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31579
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 749.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 74.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2308,
            "WHIP": 1.5923,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15385,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43846,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13846
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.0,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 530.0,
            "Pitches": 2035.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5833,
            "H": 5.2917,
            "BB": 1.625,
            "SO": 4.625,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.0833,
            "Pitches": 84.7917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.328,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 1.016,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.312,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.888,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.096
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.393,
        "predicted_H": 5.064,
        "predicted_BB": 1.572,
        "predicted_SO": 3.364,
        "predicted_HR": 0.868,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9954,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5202
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.393,
          "final": 3.6497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.064,
          "final": 4.6141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.572,
          "final": 2.1758,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.364,
          "final": 4.4786,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.868,
          "final": 0.9238,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9954,
          "final": 6.9954,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5202,
          "final": 1.5202,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 6.230769230769231,
        "WHIP": 1.5923076923076922,
        "K9": 5.815384615384615,
        "HR9": 1.2461538461538462,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2170680982327453,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "player_name": "Davis Martin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.529,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3261,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7826,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4565,
        "offense_index": 1.0672,
        "defense_index": 1.0056,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0997
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3165,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5396,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8561,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 0.9228,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0358
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.0672,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.013,
        "defense_strength": 0.0056,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0772,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0051,
        "run_prevention": 0.9947,
        "strikeout": 1.003
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663436",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663436",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 502.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1499,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8601,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3817,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0368,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.4375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0082
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663436",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01127982516205,
              "release_spin_rate": 2483.065988028828,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01127982516205,
                "release_spin_rate": 2483.065988028828,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0113,
              "release_spin_rate": 2483.066,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0082,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0585,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2427,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0206,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9874,
          "walk_factor": 0.965,
          "homer_factor": 1.0454,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663436",
            "espn_id": 42823,
            "player_name": "Davis Martin",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 80,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 80,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 318,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 61,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 4.32,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 36,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 105,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 125.0,
              "ip_rank": 79,
              "h_value": 127.0,
              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 60,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 125,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 81,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 75,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.9919996,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.328,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.84,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0206,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.965,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0454,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9874,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_CHW@HOU

home

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.1

7.0

-3

5/1

1/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1938775510204083,
      "IP": 32.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.444,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0247,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0015,
      "walk_factor": 0.9987,
      "homer_factor": 0.9968,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 424.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 84.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.1111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 133.0,
            "Pitches": 503.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 22.1667,
            "Pitches": 83.8333
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.1939,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82653,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36735,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 133.0,
            "Pitches": 503.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.1939,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82653,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36735,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.398,
        "predicted_H": 4.545,
        "predicted_BB": 1.975,
        "predicted_SO": 4.853,
        "predicted_HR": 0.565,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0465,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2225
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.398,
          "final": 2.7243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.545,
          "final": 4.7916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.975,
          "final": 1.4465,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.853,
          "final": 3.8486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.565,
          "final": 0.8008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0465,
          "final": 4.0465,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2225,
          "final": 1.2225,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.1938775510204083,
        "K9": 7.714285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.5510204081632654,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9400743776675962,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 675.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3165,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5396,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8561,
        "offense_index": 1.013,
        "defense_index": 0.9228,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0358
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.529,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3261,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7826,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4565,
        "offense_index": 1.0672,
        "defense_index": 1.0056,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0997
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1355,
        "offense_edge": 0.013,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0672,
        "defense_strength": -0.0772,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0056,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9896,
        "run_prevention": 1.0252,
        "strikeout": 0.9906
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 94.0,
            "k_percent": 21.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4281,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3165,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 50.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1559,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0261,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.0375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.096
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
                "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1506,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6169,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.096,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6858,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0247,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0015,
          "walk_factor": 0.9987,
          "homer_factor": 0.9968,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_id": 42996,
            "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 241,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 241,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 592,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 200,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 415,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 32.2,
              "ip_rank": 403,
              "h_value": 27.0,
              "h_rank": 426,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 426,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 507,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 431,
              "k_value": 28.0,
              "k_rank": 421,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.714286,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.1938,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.57,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9991,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0007,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_CHW@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_DET@MIN

away

Drew Anderson

True

4.1

5.2

-3

6/3

3/2

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.872093023255814,
      "WHIP": 1.3255813953488371,
      "IP": 86.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 45,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.238,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1706,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9855,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0377,
      "walk_factor": 1.011,
      "homer_factor": 1.0089,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 186,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7754,
        "prior_weight": 0.2246
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 45,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 350.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 18.6,
            "Pitches": 70.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8209,
            "WHIP": 1.3881,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31343,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49254,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1791
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 11.9,
            "Pitches": 45.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1395,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87209,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 45,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 86.0,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 369.0,
            "Pitches": 1435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8222,
            "R": 0.8889,
            "H": 1.7556,
            "BB": 0.7778,
            "SO": 2.1333,
            "HR": 0.2889,
            "BF": 8.2,
            "Pitches": 31.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8721,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43023,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9186,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40698,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11628,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15116
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.38,
        "predicted_H": 3.319,
        "predicted_BB": 1.559,
        "predicted_SO": 3.257,
        "predicted_HR": 0.566,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4411,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3513
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4449,
      "form_weight": 0.5551,
      "form_reliability": 0.7754,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.266,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7754,
        "prior_weight": 0.2246
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.38,
          "final": 2.5456,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.319,
          "final": 4.5118,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.559,
          "final": 2.2001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.257,
          "final": 2.6978,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.566,
          "final": 1.204,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4411,
          "final": 3.4411,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3513,
          "final": 1.3513,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.13953488372093,
        "WHIP": 1.3255813953488371,
        "K9": 7.848837209302325,
        "HR9": 1.255813953488372,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8714108705148887,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.266,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7754,
          "prior_weight": 0.2246
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4565,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 557.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3043,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3406,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0362,
        "offense_index": 0.9683,
        "defense_index": 1.1106,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -37.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1046
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.482,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2374,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6906,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9281,
        "offense_index": 1.0464,
        "defense_index": 0.9096,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0794
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0252,
        "offense_edge": -0.0317,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0464,
        "defense_strength": 0.1106,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0904,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0005,
        "run_prevention": 0.9976,
        "strikeout": 0.9955
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 305.0,
            "k_percent": 25.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.826,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0821,
            "whiff_percent": 27.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0321,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3596,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3714,
            "bb_edge": -0.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0244
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 52,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 52,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 52,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3011,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0244,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1744,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1706,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9855,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0377,
          "walk_factor": 1.011,
          "homer_factor": 1.0089,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_id": 28617,
            "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 186,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 186,
              "gp_value": 45.0,
              "gp_rank": 123,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 195,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 3.872,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 86,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 145,
              "ip_value": 86.0,
              "ip_rank": 140,
              "h_value": 79.0,
              "h_rank": 142,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 155,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 113,
              "k_value": 96.0,
              "k_rank": 100,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.046512,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.3255,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.91,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9855,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9855,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.011,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0377,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_DET@MIN

home

Dean Kremer

True

5.0

4.0

-3

7/6

2/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.601063829787234,
      "WHIP": 1.2606382978723405,
      "IP": 62.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0619,
      "sample_weight": 0.868,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0053,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0213,
      "walk_factor": 0.9887,
      "homer_factor": 1.0112,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.344,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 685,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9226,
            "WHIP": 1.3355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94839,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87097,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2129
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 260.0,
            "Pitches": 1054.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.25,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 5.0833,
            "HR": 1.25,
            "BF": 21.6667,
            "Pitches": 87.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6011,
            "WHIP": 1.2606,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90957,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35106,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23936
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.941,
        "predicted_H": 4.667,
        "predicted_BB": 2.055,
        "predicted_SO": 4.817,
        "predicted_HR": 0.881,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9628,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2602
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.941,
          "final": 2.4947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.667,
          "final": 5.7734,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.055,
          "final": 2.0289,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.817,
          "final": 4.9038,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.881,
          "final": 0.4632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9628,
          "final": 4.9628,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2602,
          "final": 1.2602,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.922580645161291,
        "WHIP": 1.335483870967742,
        "K9": 7.838709677419355,
        "HR9": 1.9161290322580646,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1759762868183534,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.482,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2374,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6906,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9281,
        "offense_index": 1.0464,
        "defense_index": 0.9096,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0794
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4565,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 557.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3043,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3406,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0362,
        "offense_index": 0.9683,
        "defense_index": 1.1106,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -37.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1046
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0252,
        "offense_edge": 0.0464,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0317,
        "defense_strength": -0.0904,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1106,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0027,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 217.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.344,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8654,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5951,
            "whiff_percent": 27.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3236,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2704,
            "regression_edge": 0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.1625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.183
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.5972766860832,
              "release_spin_rate": 2072.2900211030874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.5972766860832,
                "release_spin_rate": 2072.2900211030874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5973,
              "release_spin_rate": 2072.29,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.183,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3071,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0619,
          "sample_weight": 0.868,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0053,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0213,
          "walk_factor": 0.9887,
          "homer_factor": 1.0112,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_id": 38295,
            "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 685,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 685,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 485,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 153,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 135,
              "era_value": 5.601,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 299,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 62.2,
              "ip_rank": 198,
              "h_value": 57.0,
              "h_rank": 191,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 145,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 240,
              "k_value": 61.0,
              "k_rank": 208,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.760638,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.2606,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9902,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0185,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_DET@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_MIA@KC

away

Eury Pérez

True

5.1

4.2

-2

2/9

0/3

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4438775510204085,
      "WHIP": 1.1326530612244898,
      "IP": 130.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.444,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2302,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9804,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0497,
      "walk_factor": 1.029,
      "homer_factor": 1.0301,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 29.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 68,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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          "final": 3.3492,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1079,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3381,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 679.0,
        "run_differential": -86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6187,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0518
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0059
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.86224536987449,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Eury Perez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
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              "l_rank": 13,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.780612,
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              "whip_value": 1.1326,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_MIA@KC

home

Noah Cameron

True

6.1

5.0

-4

3/5

4/1

11/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.21875,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.693,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0531,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
      "walk_factor": 0.971,
      "homer_factor": 1.0135,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8713,
            "WHIP": 0.802,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20792,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53465,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26733,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71287,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0297
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 255.0,
            "Pitches": 977.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.5,
            "Pitches": 97.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7411,
            "WHIP": 0.9746,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30457,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62437,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35025,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85279,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07614
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 134.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 625.0,
            "Pitches": 2428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5385,
            "R": 2.7308,
            "H": 5.1538,
            "BB": 1.8462,
            "SO": 5.0385,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 24.0385,
            "Pitches": 93.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9777,
            "WHIP": 1.2188,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89732,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87723,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10045
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.076,
        "predicted_H": 4.463,
        "predicted_BB": 2.046,
        "predicted_SO": 5.274,
        "predicted_HR": 0.477,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8994,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0098
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.076,
          "final": 1.2079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.463,
          "final": 3.8512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.046,
          "final": 2.8631,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.274,
          "final": 6.832,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 2.8994,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0098,
          "final": 1.0098,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.7411167512690353,
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        "K9": 7.6751269035532985,
        "HR9": 0.6852791878172588,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8090399842147836,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 11.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.2222,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 139,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.446,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 679.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6187,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8849,
        "offense_index": 0.952,
        "defense_index": 0.9174,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0518
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5036,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1079,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3381,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2302,
        "offense_index": 0.968,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0163
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0681,
        "offense_edge": -0.048,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
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          "components": {
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            "whiff_edge": 0.1571,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 104,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 104,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2196.6732,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1729,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2348,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0531,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 0.971,
          "homer_factor": 1.0135,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "702070",
            "espn_id": 4417208,
            "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 110,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 110,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 276,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 63,
              "era_value": 3.9776,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 36,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 149.1,
              "ip_rank": 33,
              "h_value": 134.0,
              "h_rank": 37,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 35,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 40,
              "k_value": 131.0,
              "k_rank": 46,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8950896,
              "k_per_9_rank": 37,
              "whip_value": 1.2187,
              "whip_rank": 31.0,
              "war_value": 1.56,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.971,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0135,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 11,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_MIA@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_MIL@CHC

away

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

4.0

-6

7/5

1/4

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.728476821192053,
      "WHIP": 0.7549668874172185,
      "IP": 151.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.04,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.4075,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8804,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.939,
      "homer_factor": 0.8335,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.21,
      "xwoba": 0.22,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
      "whiff_percent": 37.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3226,
            "WHIP": 0.7742,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54839,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19355,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1724,
            "WHIP": 0.7586,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44828,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 222.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 571.0,
            "Pitches": 2268.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.16,
            "R": 1.48,
            "H": 3.16,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 8.88,
            "HR": 0.52,
            "BF": 22.84,
            "Pitches": 90.72
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7285,
            "WHIP": 0.755,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19205,
            "H_per_IP": 0.52318,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23179,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.4702,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08609
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.7,
        "predicted_H": 3.712,
        "predicted_BB": 1.479,
        "predicted_SO": 7.666,
        "predicted_HR": 0.725,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.538,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8612
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.7,
          "final": 1.8261,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.712,
          "final": 5.0944,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.479,
          "final": 1.2776,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.666,
          "final": 6.9656,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.725,
          "final": 0.4202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.538,
          "final": 2.538,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8612,
          "final": 0.8612,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 84,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1724137931034484,
        "WHIP": 0.7586206896551724,
        "K9": 13.03448275862069,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7396609364290319,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.6187,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 527.0,
        "run_differential": 168.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2086,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7914,
        "offense_index": 1.1157,
        "defense_index": 1.182,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2842
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5612,
        "runs_scored": 746.0,
        "runs_allowed": 610.0,
        "run_differential": 136.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9784,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3669,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3885,
        "offense_index": 1.1976,
        "defense_index": 1.0212,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 8.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 37.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1371
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1471,
        "offense_edge": 0.1157,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1976,
        "defense_strength": 0.182,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0212,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 1.0061,
        "strikeout": 0.9886
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 525.0,
            "k_percent": 38.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.21,
            "xwoba": 0.22,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2282,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9956,
            "whiff_percent": 37.6,
            "swing_percent": 51.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6584,
            "command_and_miss": 1.8654,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7714,
            "bb_edge": 0.7625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.61667244035621,
              "release_spin_rate": 2563.200146698222,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.61667244035621,
                "release_spin_rate": 2563.200146698222,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.6167,
              "release_spin_rate": 2563.2001,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.4075,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8804,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.939,
          "homer_factor": 0.8335,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_id": 5080761,
            "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 5,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 5,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 298,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 1.7284,
              "era_rank": 1.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 5,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 130,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 151.0,
              "ip_rank": 27,
              "h_value": 79.0,
              "h_rank": 142,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 185,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 113,
              "k_value": 222.0,
              "k_rank": 1,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.231788,
              "k_per_9_rank": 1,
              "whip_value": 0.7549,
              "whip_rank": 1.0,
              "war_value": 5.58,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8804,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8804,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.939,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8335,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_MIL@CHC

home

David Peterson

True

4.0

3.2

-1

11/7

2/4

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.108108108108108,
      "WHIP": 1.5162162162162163,
      "IP": 123.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.074,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3242,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0276,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
      "walk_factor": 1.005,
      "homer_factor": 1.026,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 798,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 387.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2239,
            "WHIP": 1.7015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35821,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07463,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08955
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 832.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.4094,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96644,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88591,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 123.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 556.0,
            "Pitches": 2038.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5926,
            "R": 2.8519,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9259,
            "SO": 4.037,
            "HR": 0.4815,
            "BF": 20.5926,
            "Pitches": 75.4815
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1081,
            "WHIP": 1.5162,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42162,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88378,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10541
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.088,
        "predicted_H": 5.046,
        "predicted_BB": 2.2,
        "predicted_SO": 4.58,
        "predicted_HR": 0.523,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.962,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5279
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.088,
          "final": 3.7154,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 11.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 7.5228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 2.1168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.58,
          "final": 5.5867,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.523,
          "final": 0.7214,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.962,
          "final": 3.962,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5279,
          "final": 1.5279,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.986577181208054,
        "WHIP": 1.4093959731543624,
        "K9": 7.973154362416108,
        "HR9": 1.087248322147651,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9600236996782797,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 11.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 11,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 11.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 139,
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          "run_differential": 37.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656849",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656849",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0552
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656849",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87843836354706,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 74,
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                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8784,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3242,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "David Peterson",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 798,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_value": 7.954054,
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              "whip_value": 1.5162,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 1.0276,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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        }
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_MIL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_NYM@TB

away

Justin Hagenman

True

3.0

3/2

2/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

{
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      "projection_source": "league_average_stable_fallback"
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
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    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0,
          "prior_weight": 1.0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663795",
      "player_name": "Justin Hagenman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
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              "delta": 2.9,
              "percent_delta": 29.0,
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              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.446,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4029,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0791,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.482,
        "offense_index": 0.9088,
        "defense_index": 1.0015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1303
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.6014,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": 57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.413,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5217,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1087,
        "offense_index": 1.0074,
        "defense_index": 1.0925,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2068
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3371,
        "offense_edge": -0.0912,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0074,
        "defense_strength": 0.0015,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0925,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9863,
        "run_prevention": 1.0179,
        "strikeout": 0.9893
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 63,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_NYM@TB

home

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

2.2

-7

1/7

0/2

10/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.338181818181818,
      "WHIP": 1.1672727272727272,
      "IP": 91.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.593,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0228,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
      "walk_factor": 0.975,
      "homer_factor": 1.0561,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 31.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 292,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7125,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 784.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 78.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2468,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36076,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21519,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13291
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 78.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 100.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 374.0,
            "Pitches": 1386.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.2143,
            "R": 1.5714,
            "H": 2.7857,
            "BB": 1.0357,
            "SO": 3.5714,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 13.3571,
            "Pitches": 49.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3382,
            "WHIP": 1.1673,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37091,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85091,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31636,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15273
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.991,
        "predicted_H": 4.367,
        "predicted_BB": 1.444,
        "predicted_SO": 5.668,
        "predicted_HR": 0.574,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6257,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1755
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.991,
          "final": 1.9947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 4.367,
          "final": 2.559,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.444,
          "final": 0.8462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 10.0,
          "form": 5.668,
          "final": 7.4615,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.574,
          "final": 0.3364,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6257,
          "final": 3.6257,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1755,
          "final": 1.1755,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.2468354430379742,
        "WHIP": 1.0632911392405062,
        "K9": 10.936708860759493,
        "HR9": 1.1962025316455696,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8681501332862993,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 10.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 10.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 10.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.6014,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": 57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.413,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5217,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1087,
        "offense_index": 1.0074,
        "defense_index": 1.0925,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2068
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.446,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": -56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4029,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0791,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.482,
        "offense_index": 0.9088,
        "defense_index": 1.0015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1303
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3371,
        "offense_edge": 0.0074,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0912,
        "defense_strength": 0.0925,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0015,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0199,
        "run_prevention": 0.9593,
        "strikeout": 1.0174
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "643377",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 353.0,
            "k_percent": 26.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1671,
            "whiff_percent": 31.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1902,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6518,
            "regression_edge": -0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8571,
            "bb_edge": 0.3125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1046
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "643377",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.73209293497034,
              "release_spin_rate": 2569.752574083549,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.73209293497034,
                "release_spin_rate": 2569.752574083549,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.7321,
              "release_spin_rate": 2569.7526,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1046,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7468,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0228,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
          "walk_factor": 0.975,
          "homer_factor": 1.0561,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "643377",
            "espn_id": 42604,
            "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 292,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 292,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 214,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 106,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 3.6327,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 99,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 224,
              "ip_value": 91.2,
              "ip_rank": 132,
              "h_value": 81.0,
              "h_rank": 133,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 155,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 99,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 153,
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": 93,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.818182,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.2109,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.33,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.975,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0561,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_NYM@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_NYY@LAA

away

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

8.0

0/2

0/0

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.089613034623218,
      "WHIP": 0.9714867617107944,
      "IP": 163.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.845,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6332,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9462,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0726,
      "walk_factor": 0.947,
      "homer_factor": 0.9812,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.255,
      "xwoba": 0.268,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 163.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.09,
      "season_WHIP": 0.971,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7037,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 964.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1117,
            "WHIP": 0.9888,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23464,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63687,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35196,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30726,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06704
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.2,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 201.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 651.0,
            "Pitches": 2584.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3571,
            "R": 1.6071,
            "H": 4.1786,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.1786,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.25,
            "Pitches": 92.2857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0896,
            "WHIP": 0.9715,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23218,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71487,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25662,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22811,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08554
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.642,
        "predicted_H": 4.21,
        "predicted_BB": 2.495,
        "predicted_SO": 7.235,
        "predicted_HR": 0.492,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5501,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1569
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.642,
          "final": 0.9622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 4.21,
          "final": 2.467,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.495,
          "final": 1.462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 7.235,
          "final": 5.0677,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.492,
          "final": 0.2883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5501,
          "final": 2.5501,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1569,
          "final": 1.1569,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
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      {
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          ],
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5683,
        "runs_scored": 630.0,
        "runs_allowed": 518.0,
        "run_differential": 112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8058,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5324,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
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          "run_differential": 17.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3813,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
        "runs_allowed": 645.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.554,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0863,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6403,
        "offense_index": 0.9098,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0902,
        "defense_strength": 0.2052,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0321,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9418,
        "strikeout": 1.0212
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3054,
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            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 52.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5286,
            "bb_edge": 0.6625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.86598593414776,
              "release_spin_rate": 2500.592351861234,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.86598593414776,
                "release_spin_rate": 2500.592351861234,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.866,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
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              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6332,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "strikeout_factor": 1.0726,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_id": 5134581,
            "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 2,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 2,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 226,
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              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.052954,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 0.9714,
              "whip_rank": 4.0,
              "war_value": 5.92,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9462,
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 0,
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      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_NYY@LAA

home

Reid Detmers

True

6.0

7.0

-1

6/6

1/0

6/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.741,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
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      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "rates": {
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8327747710779725,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "biggest_deboost": null,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.3813,
        "runs_scored": 568.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.554,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
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          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 139,
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        "win_pct": 0.5683,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0902,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.317,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1022
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6453988776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 86,
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                "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0397,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3959,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_id": 4326697,
            "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 32,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 32,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 247,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 18,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 30,
              "era_value": 3.5419,
              "era_rank": 25.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 178,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 155.0,
              "ip_rank": 17,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 65,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 55,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 59,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 57,
              "k_value": 174.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.103227,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.0709,
              "whip_rank": 10.0,
              "war_value": 3.05,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_NYY@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_OAK@TEX

away

Jacob Lopez

True

5.0

6.0

4/6

3/2

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.818181818181818,
      "WHIP": 1.4646464646464648,
      "IP": 99.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.754,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3635,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9691,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9989,
      "walk_factor": 1.043,
      "homer_factor": 0.9009,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.3,
      "woba": 0.333,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 5.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 155,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4828,
            "WHIP": 0.9655,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68966,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2069,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 811.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 81.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7931,
            "WHIP": 1.0759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35172,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08276
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 95.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 441.0,
            "Pitches": 1789.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4091,
            "R": 2.5455,
            "H": 4.3182,
            "BB": 2.2727,
            "SO": 4.3636,
            "HR": 0.6818,
            "BF": 20.0455,
            "Pitches": 81.3182
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8182,
            "WHIP": 1.4646,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53535,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9596,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50505,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.902,
        "predicted_H": 4.104,
        "predicted_BB": 1.817,
        "predicted_SO": 5.76,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3202,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1482
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 1.5157,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.104,
          "final": 4.0595,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.817,
          "final": 2.3236,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.76,
          "final": 5.4345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 0.7622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3202,
          "final": 3.3202,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1482,
          "final": 1.1482,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.7931034482758625,
        "WHIP": 1.0758620689655174,
        "K9": 10.8,
        "HR9": 0.7448275862068966,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8174195571186871,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3813,
        "runs_scored": 602.0,
        "runs_allowed": 803.0,
        "run_differential": -201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.446,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.777,
        "offense_index": 0.9639,
        "defense_index": 0.7778,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3129
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 570.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.295,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3957,
        "offense_index": 0.9127,
        "defense_index": 1.0222,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0392
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2737,
        "offense_edge": -0.0361,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0873,
        "defense_strength": -0.2222,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0222,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9859,
        "run_prevention": 1.0219,
        "strikeout": 0.9988
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 393.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.3,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.286,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.2994,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.44,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5046,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1189,
            "regression_edge": 1.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": -0.5375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.33938318705401,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.340834097883,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.33938318705401,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.340834097883,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.3394,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3408,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3635,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9691,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9989,
          "walk_factor": 1.043,
          "homer_factor": 0.9009,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.047,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_id": 42239,
            "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 155,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 155,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 349,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 99,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 135,
              "era_value": 4.8181,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 134,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 170,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 262,
              "ip_value": 99.0,
              "ip_rank": 115,
              "h_value": 95.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 79,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 50.0,
              "bb_rank": 29,
              "k_value": 96.0,
              "k_rank": 100,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.727273,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.4646,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.09,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9691,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.043,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9009,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_OAK@TEX

home

Cody Bradford

True

5.0

4.0

-3

3/7

1/1

8/3

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4177215189873418,
      "WHIP": 1.518987341772152,
      "IP": 26.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2505,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0213,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
      "walk_factor": 0.9654,
      "homer_factor": 1.035,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 11.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 236,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29114,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29114,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 406.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29114,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.338,
        "predicted_H": 6.036,
        "predicted_BB": 1.596,
        "predicted_SO": 3.824,
        "predicted_HR": 0.492,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9446,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4309
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.338,
          "final": 2.7095,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.036,
          "final": 3.7708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.596,
          "final": 1.2615,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 3.824,
          "final": 6.1678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.492,
          "final": 1.3384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9446,
          "final": 3.9446,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4309,
          "final": 1.4309,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 26.1,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 3.4177215189873418,
        "WHIP": 1.518987341772152,
        "K9": 4.443037974683545,
        "HR9": 0.34177215189873417,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.912947476433466,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674003",
      "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 570.0,
        "runs_allowed": 611.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.295,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3957,
        "offense_index": 0.9127,
        "defense_index": 1.0222,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0392
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.3813,
        "runs_scored": 602.0,
        "runs_allowed": 803.0,
        "run_differential": -201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.446,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3309,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.777,
        "offense_index": 0.9639,
        "defense_index": 0.7778,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3129
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2737,
        "offense_edge": -0.0873,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0361,
        "defense_strength": 0.0222,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2222,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0131,
        "run_prevention": 0.9783,
        "strikeout": 1.0111
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 63.0,
            "k_percent": 11.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.351,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7976,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8247,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.632,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7925,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.9625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.26618224573781,
              "release_spin_rate": 1896.6627748383305,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.26618224573781,
                "release_spin_rate": 1896.6627748383305,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.2662,
              "release_spin_rate": 1896.6628,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2505,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0213,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
          "walk_factor": 0.9654,
          "homer_factor": 1.035,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "674003",
            "espn_id": 4142539,
            "player_name": "Cody Bradford",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 236,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 236,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 610,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 214,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 3.4177,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 519,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 226,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 26.1,
              "ip_rank": 450,
              "h_value": 34.0,
              "h_rank": 362,
              "er_value": 10.0,
              "er_rank": 518,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 597,
              "bb_value": 6.0,
              "bb_rank": 567,
              "k_value": 13.0,
              "k_rank": 544,
              "k_per_9_value": 4.443038,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.5189,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.6,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0096,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0096,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9844,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0157,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_OAK@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_PHI@ARI

away

Andrew Painter

True

5.0

7.0

-4

4/2

2/0

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.9491525423728815,
      "WHIP": 1.4440677966101696,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.907,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.125,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
      "walk_factor": 0.989,
      "homer_factor": 1.0211,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.348,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 288,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9512,
            "WHIP": 1.0244,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43902,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95122,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 836.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5172,
            "WHIP": 1.4276,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9931,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43448,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 105.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 85.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 432.0,
            "Pitches": 1670.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.25,
            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.25,
            "BB": 1.85,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.85,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 83.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9492,
            "WHIP": 1.4441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66102,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0678,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37627,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86441,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17288
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.883,
        "predicted_H": 4.484,
        "predicted_BB": 1.975,
        "predicted_SO": 4.734,
        "predicted_HR": 0.719,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0934,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2681
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.883,
          "final": 3.3683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.484,
          "final": 3.4047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.975,
          "final": 1.9859,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.734,
          "final": 5.7186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.719,
          "final": 0.8411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0934,
          "final": 5.0934,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2681,
          "final": 1.2681,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.517241379310345,
        "WHIP": 1.427586206896552,
        "K9": 8.379310344827587,
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.5683,
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        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 67,
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        "runs_scored": 627.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0143,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4929,
        "offense_index": 0.9978,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0114,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0022,
        "defense_strength": 0.0504,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.001,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9856,
        "strikeout": 1.0056
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 380.0,
            "k_percent": 19.7,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
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            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.4302,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2514,
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            "regression_edge": 0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2571,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0189
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.9389803815907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
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                "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2019,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.939,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0189,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1347,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.125,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0211,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "691725",
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            "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 288,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 288,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 379,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 106,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 107,
              "era_value": 5.9491,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 236,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 98.1,
              "ip_rank": 117,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 100,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 59,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 94,
              "k_value": 85.0,
              "k_rank": 133,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7796607,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.444,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.989,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0211,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_PHI@ARI

home

Taylor Clarke

True

6.0

1.2

-13

-2

1/0

2/1

8/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.598930481283422,
      "WHIP": 0.8823529411764706,
      "IP": 62.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 62,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.005,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.067,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1135,
      "sample_weight": 0.832,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0097,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
      "walk_factor": 0.9243,
      "homer_factor": 1.0107,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.5,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 135,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 62.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.599,
      "season_WHIP": 0.882,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.514,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7145,
        "prior_weight": 0.2855
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 62,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 0.9375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 143.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 14.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 62,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2903,
            "R": 0.3387,
            "H": 0.7097,
            "BB": 0.1774,
            "SO": 0.5968,
            "HR": 0.0968,
            "BF": 3.8387,
            "Pitches": 14.2419
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5989,
            "WHIP": 0.8824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59358,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09626
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.187,
        "predicted_H": 1.99,
        "predicted_BB": 0.586,
        "predicted_SO": 2.136,
        "predicted_HR": 0.549,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4011,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.061
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4706,
      "form_weight": 0.5294,
      "form_reliability": 0.7145,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.514,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7145,
        "prior_weight": 0.2855
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.187,
          "final": 1.5696,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.99,
          "final": 1.5241,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.586,
          "final": 1.2515,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 2.136,
          "final": 4.8957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.549,
          "final": 0.7613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4011,
          "final": 4.4011,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.061,
          "final": 1.061,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.0,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0024651092654744,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.514,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7145,
          "prior_weight": 0.2855
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664199",
      "player_name": "Taylor Clarke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 140,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5214,
        "runs_scored": 627.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": -2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0143,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4786,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4929,
        "offense_index": 0.9978,
        "defense_index": 0.999,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0164
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 79,
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        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 594.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2662,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2734,
        "offense_index": 1.0114,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0022,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0114,
        "defense_strength": -0.001,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9937
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 15.5,
            "bb_percent": 4.6,
            "woba": 0.249,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.2175,
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            "whiff_percent": 21.5,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5286,
            "bb_edge": 1.1375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "664199",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1135,
          "sample_weight": 0.832,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0097,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
          "walk_factor": 0.9243,
          "homer_factor": 1.0107,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.071,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "664199",
            "espn_id": 35277,
            "player_name": "Taylor Clarke",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 135,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 135,
              "gp_value": 62.0,
              "gp_rank": 16,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 354,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 2.5989,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 299,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 226,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 46,
              "ip_value": 62.1,
              "ip_rank": 201,
              "h_value": 44.0,
              "h_rank": 271,
              "er_value": 18.0,
              "er_rank": 339,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 259,
              "bb_value": 11.0,
              "bb_rank": 448,
              "k_value": 37.0,
              "k_rank": 359,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.342246,
              "k_per_9_rank": 48,
              "whip_value": 0.8823,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0081,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0081,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.937,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9601,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_PHI@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SD@CIN

away

Casey Mize

True

5.0

4.0

-3

3/5

2/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4468085106382977,
      "WHIP": 1.1033434650455927,
      "IP": 109.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1805,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9847,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.939,
      "homer_factor": 0.9934,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 370.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 74.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2609,
            "WHIP": 1.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69565,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34783,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.47826,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 808.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.1419,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89032,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25161,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73548,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13548
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 96.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 446.0,
            "Pitches": 1688.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 4.4762,
            "BB": 1.2857,
            "SO": 4.5714,
            "HR": 0.5238,
            "BF": 21.2381,
            "Pitches": 80.381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4468,
            "WHIP": 1.1033,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38298,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1003
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.695,
        "predicted_H": 5.046,
        "predicted_BB": 1.551,
        "predicted_SO": 3.539,
        "predicted_HR": 0.892,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8249,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3124
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.695,
          "final": 2.8265,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.046,
          "final": 4.1637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.551,
          "final": 1.7446,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.539,
          "final": 4.1691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.892,
          "final": 0.5073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8249,
          "final": 4.8249,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3124,
          "final": 1.3124,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.006451612903226,
        "WHIP": 1.1419354838709679,
        "K9": 6.619354838709678,
        "HR9": 1.2193548387096775,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9555730610119018,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "player_name": "Casey Mize",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5252,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1007,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2518,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1511,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 1.0823,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0013
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4748,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
        "runs_allowed": 686.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8058,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1295,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9353,
        "offense_index": 0.9192,
        "defense_index": 0.9103,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1201
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1188,
        "offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0808,
        "defense_strength": 0.0823,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0897,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0105,
        "run_prevention": 0.9729,
        "strikeout": 1.01
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8088,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.809,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3052,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0668,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.7625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0103
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04851401520826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2095.774411866807,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04851401520826,
                "release_spin_rate": 2095.774411866807,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2095.7744,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0734,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1805,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9847,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663554",
            "espn_id": 41167,
            "player_name": "Casey Mize",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 63,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 360,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 88,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 3.4468,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 134,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
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              "ip_rank": 104,
              "h_value": 94.0,
              "h_rank": 116,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 135,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 138,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 184,
              "k_value": 96.0,
              "k_rank": 100,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.8784194,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.1033,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9847,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9847,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.939,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SD@CIN

home

Brandon Williamson

True

4.1

5.1

4/7

5/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.6428571428571428,
      "IP": 28.0,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
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      "homer_factor": 1.066,
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      "k_percent": 14.8,
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      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.389,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 618,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 84.8
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.6286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04286
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 518.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1667,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 3.3333,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.3333,
            "Pitches": 86.3333
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 518.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1667,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 3.3333,
            "SO": 3.1667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.3333,
            "Pitches": 86.3333
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.6429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.514,
        "predicted_H": 4.269,
        "predicted_BB": 2.73,
        "predicted_SO": 3.738,
        "predicted_HR": 0.454,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8479,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4998
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.514,
          "final": 2.7774,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.269,
          "final": 3.5812,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.73,
          "final": 3.9604,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.738,
          "final": 3.338,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.454,
          "final": 0.7499,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8479,
          "final": 4.8479,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4998,
          "final": 1.4998,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 26,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 6.107142857142857,
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        "K9": 6.107142857142857,
        "HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-04-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1869149355411623,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682227",
      "player_name": "Brandon Williamson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4748,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
        "runs_allowed": 686.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8058,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1295,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9353,
        "offense_index": 0.9192,
        "defense_index": 0.9103,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1201
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5252,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1007,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2518,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1511,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 1.0823,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0013
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1188,
        "offense_edge": -0.0808,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "defense_strength": -0.0897,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0823,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9947,
        "run_prevention": 1.0063,
        "strikeout": 1.0007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682227",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682227",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 112.0,
            "k_percent": 14.8,
            "bb_percent": 15.6,
            "woba": 0.36,
            "xwoba": 0.389,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3891,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.092,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 43.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2382,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8339,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -1.6125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1629
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682227",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.95558769002595,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.906437412728,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.95558769002595,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.906437412728,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.9064,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1629,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1638,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4528,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0385,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
          "walk_factor": 1.058,
          "homer_factor": 1.066,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682227",
            "espn_id": 42431,
            "player_name": "Brandon Williamson",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 618,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 618,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 592,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 200,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 6.1071,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 299,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 226,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 28.0,
              "ip_rank": 435,
              "h_value": 26.0,
              "h_rank": 438,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 317,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 361,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 282,
              "k_value": 19.0,
              "k_rank": 484,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.107143,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.6428,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.14,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0173,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0173,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0261,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SEA@BOS

away

Bryce Miller

True

5.1

4.2

-2

-1

3/7

2/1

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.117021276595745,
      "WHIP": 1.0851063829787233,
      "IP": 94.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.562,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4673,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9603,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0183,
      "walk_factor": 0.949,
      "homer_factor": 0.9441,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.277,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 180,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.8158,
            "WHIP": 1.5395,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.86842,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98684,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23684
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 906.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90741,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 94.0,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 77.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 92.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 376.0,
            "Pitches": 1464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5294,
            "R": 2.7647,
            "H": 4.5294,
            "BB": 1.4706,
            "SO": 5.4118,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.1176,
            "Pitches": 86.1176
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.117,
            "WHIP": 1.0851,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45745,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81915,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26596,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97872,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18085
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.509,
        "predicted_H": 5.064,
        "predicted_BB": 2.201,
        "predicted_SO": 4.735,
        "predicted_HR": 1.073,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.993,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3788
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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        {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5036,
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      "opponent": {
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      },
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        "offense_edge": -0.1233,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
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            "espn_rank": 180,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.0851,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
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      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
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  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SEA@BOS

home

Patrick Sandoval

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

6/5

2/3

2/2

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
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    "espn_rank": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "ERA": 4.199999999999999,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 9,
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.3374,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0878
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.29745412076173,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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                "pitches": 88,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2975,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -0.627,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.1474,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0125,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
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              "l_rank": 226,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.6,
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              "whip_value": 1.7111,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0117,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0027,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SEA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SF@PIT

away

Landen Roupp

True

5.1

5.0

-1

6/2

2/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.2529832935560865,
      "WHIP": 1.3102625298329356,
      "IP": 139.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.372,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1899,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9839,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
      "walk_factor": 1.039,
      "homer_factor": 0.9063,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 207,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8462,
            "WHIP": 1.5385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84615,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 595.0,
            "Pitches": 2468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5385,
            "R": 2.7308,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.5385,
            "SO": 5.1154,
            "HR": 0.4231,
            "BF": 22.8846,
            "Pitches": 94.9231
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.253,
            "WHIP": 1.3103,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47255,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83771,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47255,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07876
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.727,
        "predicted_H": 4.463,
        "predicted_BB": 3.074,
        "predicted_SO": 4.247,
        "predicted_HR": 0.605,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6011,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4133
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.727,
          "final": 2.0049,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.463,
          "final": 5.1057,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.074,
          "final": 2.6249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.247,
          "final": 4.98,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.605,
          "final": 0.352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6011,
          "final": 4.6011,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4133,
          "final": 1.4133,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 32,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.5562499999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.3499999999999999,
        "K9": 6.4125,
        "HR9": 1.0125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0226269924635145,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4101,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5108,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1655,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6763,
        "offense_index": 0.9285,
        "defense_index": 0.9593,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.139
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 71,
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        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1942,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7122,
        "offense_index": 1.0937,
        "defense_index": 0.952,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0146
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1536,
        "offense_edge": -0.0715,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0937,
        "defense_strength": -0.0407,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.048,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9889,
        "run_prevention": 1.0267,
        "strikeout": 0.9879
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3458,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.6556,
            "whiff_percent": 24.8,
            "swing_percent": 43.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4118,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0854,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.4875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1603
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.00224317148336,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.4570396123822,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.457,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1603,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1451,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1899,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9839,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0006,
          "walk_factor": 1.039,
          "homer_factor": 0.9063,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694738",
            "espn_id": 4345404,
            "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 207,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 207,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 276,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 35,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 54,
              "era_value": 4.2529,
              "era_rank": 40.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 58,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 139.2,
              "ip_rank": 48,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 74,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 35,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 138,
              "bb_value": 66.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 44,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.570406,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.3102,
              "whip_rank": 39.0,
              "war_value": 0.78,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.039,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9063,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_SF@PIT

home

Bubba Chandler

True

5.0

-1

8/5

0/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.259541984732825,
      "WHIP": 1.3587786259541985,
      "IP": 131.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.027,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0386,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
      "walk_factor": 1.057,
      "homer_factor": 0.9749,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 134,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0759,
            "WHIP": 1.1392,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91139,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0065,
            "WHIP": 1.3161,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89032,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42581,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85161,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03871
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 131.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 110.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 569.0,
            "Pitches": 2246.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3846,
            "R": 2.7692,
            "H": 4.2308,
            "BB": 2.6154,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.4231,
            "BF": 21.8846,
            "Pitches": 86.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2595,
            "WHIP": 1.3588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47328,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83969,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51908,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89313,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08397
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.19,
        "predicted_H": 4.343,
        "predicted_BB": 2.244,
        "predicted_SO": 4.678,
        "predicted_HR": 0.331,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7727,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2608
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.19,
          "final": 2.9469,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.343,
          "final": 5.8722,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.244,
          "final": 1.3057,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.678,
          "final": 4.3945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.331,
          "final": 0.1926,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7727,
          "final": 3.7727,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2608,
          "final": 1.2608,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.006451612903225,
        "WHIP": 1.3161290322580643,
        "K9": 7.664516129032258,
        "HR9": 0.3483870967741935,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9599278997215789,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4892,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1942,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7122,
        "offense_index": 1.0937,
        "defense_index": 0.952,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0146
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4101,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5108,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1655,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6763,
        "offense_index": 0.9285,
        "defense_index": 0.9593,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.139
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1536,
        "offense_edge": 0.0937,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0715,
        "defense_strength": -0.048,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0407,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0076,
        "run_prevention": 0.9857,
        "strikeout": 1.0103
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 526.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
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            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2548,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8547,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
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            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0902,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3511,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.7125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2769
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.8103538897678,
              "release_spin_rate": 2354.536984834445,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.8103538897678,
                "release_spin_rate": 2354.536984834445,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.8104,
              "release_spin_rate": 2354.537,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2769,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.9781,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0386,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
          "walk_factor": 1.057,
          "homer_factor": 0.9749,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_id": 4683325,
            "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 134,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 134,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 276,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 121,
              "era_value": 4.2595,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 99,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 25,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 131.0,
              "ip_rank": 63,
              "h_value": 110.0,
              "h_rank": 88,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 52,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 138,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 4,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 68,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.038168,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.3587,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.26,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.057,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_SF@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_STL@LAD

away

Brycen Mautz

True

3.0

1.0

-6

3/2

2/3

1/0

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 9.0,
      "WHIP": 2.0,
      "IP": 6.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0109,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0432,
      "walk_factor": 1.0104,
      "homer_factor": 0.982,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 34.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.401,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 677,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "802408",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 120.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 14.5,
            "Pitches": 60.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 120.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 14.5,
            "Pitches": 60.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 120.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 14.5,
            "Pitches": 60.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.379,
        "predicted_H": 4.171,
        "predicted_BB": 1.514,
        "predicted_SO": 4.264,
        "predicted_HR": 0.565,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7654,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5306
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.379,
          "final": 2.132,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.171,
          "final": 3.4078,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.514,
          "final": 1.8308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.264,
          "final": 2.1366,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.565,
          "final": 0.1967,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7654,
          "final": 5.7654,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5306,
          "final": 1.5306,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 6.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 9.0,
        "WHIP": 2.0,
        "K9": 15.0,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1055680010410254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
          "prior_weight": 0.7143
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "802408",
      "player_name": "Brycen Mautz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 623.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0719,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.482,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.554,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.9863,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0819
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5942,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 530.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0725,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.913,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8406,
        "offense_index": 1.0939,
        "defense_index": 1.1694,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2114
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2933,
        "offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0939,
        "defense_strength": -0.0137,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1694,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9841,
        "run_prevention": 1.0311,
        "strikeout": 0.9837
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "802408",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "802408",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 14.0,
            "k_percent": 34.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.401,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 62.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.8998,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9695,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 42.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7526,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9625,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": -0.2875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0579
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "802408",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.83050847457628,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.93220338983,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.83050847457628,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.93220338983,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8305,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.9322,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0579,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4138,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0109,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0432,
          "walk_factor": 1.0104,
          "homer_factor": 0.982,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.072,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "802408",
            "espn_id": 5067321,
            "player_name": "Brycen Mautz",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 677,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 677,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 738,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 354,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 207,
              "era_value": 9.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 519,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 415,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 6.0,
              "ip_rank": 680,
              "h_value": 9.0,
              "h_rank": 634,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 615,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 597,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 668,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 574,
              "k_per_9_value": 15.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 2.0,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0047,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9919,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0194,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 67,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_STL@LAD

home

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.2

7.0

4/5

0/2

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.8924050632911392,
      "IP": 158.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5591,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9525,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
      "walk_factor": 0.935,
      "homer_factor": 0.9388,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 512.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 102.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9485,
            "WHIP": 0.866,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61856,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08247,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09278
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 258.0,
            "Pitches": 1006.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 100.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4422,
            "WHIP": 0.9196,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27136,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63317,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28643,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01005,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09045
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 158.0,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 105.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 153.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 607.0,
            "Pitches": 2372.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.875,
            "R": 1.9167,
            "H": 4.375,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.375,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 25.2917,
            "Pitches": 98.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5633,
            "WHIP": 0.8924,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28481,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66456,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22785,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96835,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10127
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.911,
        "predicted_H": 4.523,
        "predicted_BB": 1.81,
        "predicted_SO": 6.661,
        "predicted_HR": 0.672,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6282,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9681
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.911,
          "final": 2.7943,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.523,
          "final": 4.3019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.81,
          "final": 1.0447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.661,
          "final": 6.3815,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.672,
          "final": 1.2335,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6282,
          "final": 2.6282,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9681,
          "final": 0.9681,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 66.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.4422110552763816,
        "WHIP": 0.9195979899497486,
        "K9": 9.090452261306531,
        "HR9": 0.8140703517587938,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7740375609308513,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.6667,
              "after": 6.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.07,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 4,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.2,
              "after": 6.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.6667,
            "after": 6.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.07,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5942,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 530.0,
        "run_differential": 148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0725,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.913,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8406,
        "offense_index": 1.0939,
        "defense_index": 1.1694,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2114
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4964,
        "runs_scored": 623.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0719,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.482,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.554,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.9863,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.1,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0819
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2933,
        "offense_edge": 0.0939,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "defense_strength": 0.1694,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0137,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0169,
        "run_prevention": 0.9681,
        "strikeout": 1.009
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.241,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8643,
            "whiff_percent": 26.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9123,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4496,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.8125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.07
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808967",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.11478597119859,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.449780817317,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.11478597119859,
                "release_spin_rate": 2175.449780817317,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1148,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.4498,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.07,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4999,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5591,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9525,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
          "walk_factor": 0.935,
          "homer_factor": 0.9388,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_id": 4872587,
            "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 9,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 9,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 318,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 61,
              "qs_value": 19.0,
              "qs_rank": 2,
              "era_value": 2.5632,
              "era_rank": 7.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 15,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 44,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 158.0,
              "ip_rank": 13,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 100,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 118,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 74,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 105,
              "k_value": 153.0,
              "k_rank": 23,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.71519,
              "k_per_9_rank": 47,
              "whip_value": 0.8924,
              "whip_rank": 2.0,
              "war_value": 4.74,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9525,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9525,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9388,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_STL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_TOR@CLE

away

Dylan Cease

True

6.0

-2

6/4

1/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.334811529933481,
      "WHIP": 1.0509977827050998,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.013,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.0079,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9143,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1326,
      "walk_factor": 1.033,
      "homer_factor": 0.88,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 36.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.247,
      "xwoba": 0.254,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
      "whiff_percent": 34.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 3,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 515.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 103.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0323,
            "WHIP": 0.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45161,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 89.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 1052.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 8.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 105.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4776,
            "WHIP": 0.8209,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16418,
            "H_per_IP": 0.44776,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37313,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32836,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07463
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 65.0,
            "SO": 217.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 601.0,
            "Pitches": 2550.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.56,
            "R": 1.76,
            "H": 3.72,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 8.68,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.04,
            "Pitches": 102.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3348,
            "WHIP": 1.051,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25942,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43237,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44346,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-28T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 563.0,
        "runs_allowed": 560.0,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9657,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 1.0079,
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            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260902

20260902_TOR@CLE

home

Joey Cantillo

True

5.0

5.1

4/9

2/2

2/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6968215158924203,
      "WHIP": 1.452322738386308,
      "IP": 136.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.869,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1045,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.044,
      "walk_factor": 1.055,
      "homer_factor": 1.0088,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 30.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 114,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 136.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.697,
      "season_WHIP": 1.452,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "report_date": "20260902",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 97.0,
            "Pitches": 380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7794,
            "WHIP": 1.4559,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30882,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 206.0,
            "Pitches": 802.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.6324,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57353,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06618
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 145.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 589.0,
            "Pitches": 2357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3571,
            "H": 4.5714,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.1786,
            "HR": 0.5357,
            "BF": 21.0357,
            "Pitches": 84.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6968,
            "WHIP": 1.4523,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41076,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93888,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51345,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06357,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11002
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.787,
        "predicted_H": 4.332,
        "predicted_BB": 2.784,
        "predicted_SO": 4.982,
        "predicted_HR": 0.45,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3683,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4906
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.787,
          "final": 1.8752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.332,
          "final": 4.1945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.784,
          "final": 2.4594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.982,
          "final": 3.7474,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.45,
          "final": 0.6777,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3683,
          "final": 3.3683,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4906,
          "final": 1.4906,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.3750000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.6323529411764708,
        "K9": 11.11764705882353,
        "HR9": 0.5955882352941178,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8967951909929264,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 138,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5072,
        "runs_scored": 563.0,
        "runs_allowed": 560.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0217,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0797,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.058,
        "offense_index": 0.9101,
        "defense_index": 1.1047,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1138
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 139,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4892,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3957,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9496,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3453,
        "offense_index": 0.8811,
        "defense_index": 1.0316,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0577
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1715,
        "offense_edge": -0.0899,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1189,
        "defense_strength": 0.1047,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0316,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0148,
        "run_prevention": 0.9619,
        "strikeout": 1.0147
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 538.0,
            "k_percent": 24.6,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5218,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8203,
            "whiff_percent": 30.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 119.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.15,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.45,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9051,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0141,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2861,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7143,
            "bb_edge": -0.6875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2748
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.95762368108332,
              "release_spin_rate": 2024.6855383454645,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.95762368108332,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.9576,
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              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.963,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1045,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.044,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 114,
            "espn_total_ranked": 848,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 114,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 226,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 4,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 89,
              "era_value": 3.6968,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 36,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 77,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 245,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 345,
              "ip_value": 136.1,
              "ip_rank": 56,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 68,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 2,
              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 30,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.572127,
              "k_per_9_rank": 14,
              "whip_value": 1.4523,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.49,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9911,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9911,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.055,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260902_TOR@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}