Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260829 · dates 20260829 · generated 2026-08-30T06:00:19.850208+00:00

16-1

Winner picks · 94.1%

Comparable starters · 4 identity mismatches

15/26

Starter ER within ±1

17/26

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260829	17	17	0	16	1	17	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	17	applied games: 17formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	17	available games: 17
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	17	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	17	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	17	configured window: 10last 10 games: 17observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	17	settled games: 17metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3961.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	7	53.0%	100.0%	-47.0%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	5	55.9%	100.0%	-44.1%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	62.1%	100.0%	-37.9%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	2	66.5%	50.0%	16.5%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	2	73.5%	100.0%	-26.6%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	17	2.1119	3.0293	3.0082	88.2%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	17	2.1765	3.1765	2.9412	76.5%	0.0646	-0.067
enhanced_prediction	17	2.1765	3.5294	2.9412	94.1%	0.0646	-0.067
embedded_savant_run_environment	17	2.2647	3.7059	3.1176	88.2%	0.1528	0.1094
fundamental_edge_target_review	17	2.2353	3.7647	3.0588	94.1%	0.1234	0.0506
capped_target	17	2.2353	3.7647	3.0588	94.1%	0.1234	0.0506
simulation_result	17	2.2353	3.7647	3.0588	94.1%	0.1234	0.0506
published_final	17	2.2353	3.7647	3.0588	94.1%	0.1234	0.0506

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 17,
  "team_run_mae": 2.2647,
  "total_run_mae": 3.7059,
  "margin_mae": 3.1176,
  "winner_hits": 15,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.8824,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1528,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1094
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick sample=1

No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final losing pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.

Stage	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	-0.0877	-0.0877	0.0877	1	1	0	moved away from final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final losing pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.0877,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0877,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0877,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Deterministic score-trace attribution only. The table preserves every recorded stage and separates reinforcing, opposing, and unchanged movement so cancellation cannot hide an effect. This is not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=16

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	11.0	-3.0	8.0	14.0	16	6	3	7	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	-2.0	1.0	5.0	16	3	2	11	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	2.2818	-2.2664	0.0154	4.5482	16	6	10	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	16	1	0	15	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	16	0	0	16	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	16	0	0	16	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 16,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 11.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 14.0,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 7,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.2818,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.2664,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0154,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.5482,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 10,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 15,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 16,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 16,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 16,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=17

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	6	6	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	5	5	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	5	4	1	0.8

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 4,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.8
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=17

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260829	17	0.584	9.3529	0.9412

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260829",
      "sample_size": 17,
      "mean_confidence": 0.584,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.3529,
      "accuracy": 0.9412
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=17

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	17	16	1	0.9412

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 17,
      "hits": 16,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.9412
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260829_ARI@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 7 - 6 SF

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 48.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.547

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.781523225930108-4.396201652604481	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.053878,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526939,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.473061,
    "away_win_probability": 0.526939
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.053878,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 7 - 6 SF",
    "confidence": 0.526939424,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 332,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.4891,
    "published_confidence": 0.526939,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7532,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.547
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02067479454943768
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019687681949215774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01946931342912392
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019446382892003063
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019183085019720283
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032809588819465295,
      "1": 0.056535974218340036,
      "2": 0.08607550990549995,
      "3": 0.11578837507514216,
      "4": 0.13761980740248908,
      "5": 0.14451987041028874,
      "6": 0.1340926002669724,
      "7": 0.10992910518428553,
      "8": 0.07962532252927881,
      "9": 0.05095893551717039,
      "10": 0.0288150993741562,
      "11": 0.014396288033069145,
      "12": 0.0063549416021855005,
      "13": 0.0024785816616568184
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.031487012166409256,
      "1": 0.054324252727554236,
      "2": 0.08301625432121308,
      "3": 0.11236720323470796,
      "4": 0.1347172079095488,
      "5": 0.14305849078567806,
      "6": 0.13455854088988045,
      "7": 0.11210267177306861,
      "8": 0.08272327539914452,
      "9": 0.05406877678268225,
      "10": 0.03130202481166707,
      "11": 0.016051121509033903,
      "12": 0.00729029995879751,
      "13": 0.0029328677306141924
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 7 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 7 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.027,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_ARI@SF_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSF

Published scoreARI 5 - 6 SF

Final confidence51.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 48.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.547

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.0822775843379855-6.186571256011738	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.037042,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518521,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518521,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481479
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.037042,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
    "confidence": 0.518520854,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 332,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.4891,
    "published_confidence": 0.518521,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7532,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.547
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019600164581772366
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019002777538979637
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01876839611328869
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01819636027117607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01818913443693732
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028587701461624718,
      "1": 0.04945815221242303,
      "2": 0.07620724805375424,
      "3": 0.10458139115528639,
      "4": 0.12782396758464165,
      "5": 0.13914574047701328,
      "6": 0.13490476269981286,
      "7": 0.11648885913468984,
      "8": 0.08958622672236857,
      "9": 0.0613617647710891,
      "10": 0.03743296097508685,
      "11": 0.020338094689906328,
      "12": 0.009841608663093547,
      "13": 0.004241521399209343
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02976795151532218,
      "1": 0.051441971596558396,
      "2": 0.07899616682708167,
      "3": 0.1077988651226811,
      "4": 0.13072002329774618,
      "5": 0.1408606868926059,
      "6": 0.13488300862784375,
      "7": 0.11477424500314426,
      "8": 0.08678634572643024,
      "9": 0.05831470957103415,
      "10": 0.03481966507094295,
      "11": 0.01847527106867626,
      "12": 0.008711176359636006,
      "13": 0.0036499133202970435
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0123,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.547,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5185,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5185,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.547,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.164,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0123,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-30T00:35:05.634033+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-30T02:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546608,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546608,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
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        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.4891,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 332,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5171,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.547,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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      },
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4074074074074074,
          "runs_scored": 552,
          "runs_allowed": 625,
          "run_differential": -73,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5407407407407407,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "ARI",
          "games": 136,
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          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.5294117647058824,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.029411764705882353,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5702,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.122,
        "quality_edge": -0.547,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.7532,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7532,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.547
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.2297,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.547,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7532,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.783,
          "home_runs": 5.583,
          "home_win_probability": 0.568
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 6.186571256011738,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_BAL@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 7 - 6 OAK

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 64.7% → blended 58.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=404

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9655

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.605629359845429-4.377307060579312	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.10918,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.55459,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44541,
    "away_win_probability": 0.55459
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.10918,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 7-6 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 7 - 6 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5545899325,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.64654,
    "sample_size": 404,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5322,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58937,
    "published_confidence": 0.55459,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0187,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0187,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3519,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.248,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9655
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015976293797434378
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015776087727657755
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015425240276433981
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01523193970433253
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014915425684743041
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022383811643517455,
      "1": 0.03895835191129256,
      "2": 0.061119898353599565,
      "3": 0.0864331187358103,
      "4": 0.11017758725765771,
      "5": 0.1265965425687607,
      "6": 0.13111909581777367,
      "7": 0.1224124414784341,
      "8": 0.10301505232869677,
      "9": 0.07814322459257461,
      "10": 0.053431514330372624,
      "11": 0.032932079168437954,
      "12": 0.018296007602578178,
      "13": 0.009162395338694177,
      "14": 0.004135968618390847,
      "15": 0.00168291025340862
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016398353020310983,
      "1": 0.028719935888490023,
      "2": 0.045910879853334974,
      "3": 0.06698794896432098,
      "4": 0.08921269538913366,
      "5": 0.10844400698732302,
      "6": 0.1203187653885518,
      "7": 0.1218456678471751,
      "8": 0.11262524110713486,
      "9": 0.09501896378022102,
      "10": 0.0731701190089314,
      "11": 0.05142877123772544,
      "12": 0.032993428689481734,
      "13": 0.01931957938755982,
      "14": 0.010325635717666383,
      "15": 0.005037149571455767,
      "16": 0.0022428581611830577
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 7 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0267,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.248,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9655,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5546,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6414,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5546,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9655,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.248,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0267,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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  ]
}

20260829_BOS@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0071

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.05538032404167-4.728992732732029	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
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    "published_confidence": 0.53,
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    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
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    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
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      },
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      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
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          "7": 0.0794705054504893,
          "8": 0.04597557516118111,
          "9": 0.022806747585087717,
          "10": 0.009700955896916401,
          "11": 0.0035381862752525083
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.05538032404167,
      "home_runs": 4.728992732732029,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_BOS@NYY_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreBOS 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0071

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.082981189257936-4.486910097362808	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.067348,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533674,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533674,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466326
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067348,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53367428,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 332,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5141,
    "published_confidence": 0.533674,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.041,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0071
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03024808619225345
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030092365148882742
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029551565768836767
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02939943050231072
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025865573504305166
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.061235872923865314,
      "1": 0.10287105899431172,
      "2": 0.1451234350011277,
      "3": 0.17192495894661755,
      "4": 0.17103986711573374,
      "5": 0.14289361151800836,
      "6": 0.10025021584690418,
      "7": 0.05906291278880089,
      "8": 0.02922142879295603,
      "9": 0.012140737643999111,
      "10": 0.00423590042767544
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06414340626412475,
      "1": 0.10747666910062356,
      "2": 0.15044687904992543,
      "3": 0.17593772525864285,
      "4": 0.17188642038886562,
      "5": 0.14029137349716192,
      "6": 0.09565929416261482,
      "7": 0.05449167805008433,
      "8": 0.02593223790044646,
      "9": 0.010309951382189535,
      "10": 0.0034243649453207722
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0074,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.266,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0071,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5683,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0071,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0074,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T22:41:14.175014+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.546608,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.546608,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 332,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.5141
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5141,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.966571,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 332,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5171,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0071,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.508216,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.966571,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.546608,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546608
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -11.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.2,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 134,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.5671641791044776,
          "runs_scored": 597,
          "runs_allowed": 496,
          "run_differential": 101,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.753731343283582,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
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          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 61,
          "win_pct": 0.5447761194029851,
          "runs_scored": 600,
          "runs_allowed": 500,
          "run_differential": 100,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.746268656716418,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0075,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0224,
        "quality_edge": 0.0071,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.041,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.041,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.056,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0071
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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            "probability": 0.030092365148882742
          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.10287105899431172,
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          "3": 0.17192495894661755,
          "4": 0.17103986711573374,
          "5": 0.14289361151800836,
          "6": 0.10025021584690418,
          "7": 0.05906291278880089,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06414340626412475,
          "1": 0.10747666910062356,
          "2": 0.15044687904992543,
          "3": 0.17593772525864285,
          "4": 0.17188642038886562,
          "5": 0.14029137349716192,
          "6": 0.09565929416261482,
          "7": 0.05449167805008433,
          "8": 0.02593223790044646,
          "9": 0.010309951382189535,
          "10": 0.0034243649453207722
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.082981189257936,
      "home_runs": 4.486910097362808,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_CHW@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 7 - 5 MIN

Final confidence57.1%

Calibrationraw 63.9% → blended 59.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=260

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7022

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.529933747113701-4.233680364856098	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.141458,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.570729,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.429271,
    "away_win_probability": 0.570729
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.141458,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.57072935,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638796,
    "sample_size": 260,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.598248,
    "published_confidence": 0.570729,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8714,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.388,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7022
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01964705495251141
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01938829531415723
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.019332773024779783
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019078152606179285
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.0178749992090072
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03675252855470664,
      "1": 0.06309990802821581,
      "2": 0.09502451902827531,
      "3": 0.12551859959488593,
      "4": 0.14542730017526886,
      "5": 0.14779142932452785,
      "6": 0.13174010592624857,
      "7": 0.10300355610141236,
      "8": 0.07064019348835307,
      "9": 0.042492960830806975,
      "10": 0.022420616855500605,
      "11": 0.010376325157006604,
      "12": 0.00421216174207842,
      "13": 0.00149979519271293
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.024375990505985635,
      "1": 0.042341517393755704,
      "2": 0.06603304144745173,
      "3": 0.09245851674780205,
      "4": 0.11623134961027631,
      "5": 0.13118687195035808,
      "6": 0.13293771528096815,
      "7": 0.12094746827135949,
      "8": 0.09879525600506135,
      "9": 0.07245462909071734,
      "10": 0.04770752887016938,
      "11": 0.02820320366605757,
      "12": 0.01496927280101381,
      "13": 0.007133352739672815,
      "14": 0.0030519501440525905,
      "15": 0.001172335475298083
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1131,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.458,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7022,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5707,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6731,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5707,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7022,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.388,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1131,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 16,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260829_CIN@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCIN 5 - 7 CHC

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 75.9% → blended 65.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=175

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2563

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9485337743926165-5.224697406573375	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.759078,
    "sample_size": 175,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.650989,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
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      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7259,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.384,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "17": 0.0020248208785096566
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          "6": 0.11071150084004804,
          "7": 0.1173105175674355,
          "8": 0.11424990455583534,
          "9": 0.10227027492015237,
          "10": 0.08414294016902477,
          "11": 0.06362980988164607,
          "12": 0.04422605995668,
          "13": 0.028253389553535662,
          "14": 0.016589662356608924,
          "15": 0.008953219234909833,
          "16": 0.004441151347243462,
          "17": 0.0020248208785096566
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.030768529243577848,
          "1": 0.05312063699177829,
          "2": 0.08134209084105028,
          "3": 0.11047471984927933,
          "4": 0.13307792072298605,
          "5": 0.14218200183432722,
          "6": 0.13473448375657554,
          "7": 0.11324223208840603,
          "8": 0.08441771636946212,
          "9": 0.05581543302968166,
          "10": 0.032731847378869465,
          "11": 0.017024809331681375,
          "12": 0.007853975030977836,
          "13": 0.003213603531346947
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9485337743926165,
      "home_runs": 5.224697406573375,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_COL@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreCOL 2 - 7 ATL

Final confidence73.4%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 80.0% · weight 2.5% · n=5

H2H base featurehome net 17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.6442

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6248867229289687-5.964570467339649	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.468912,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.734456,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.734456,
    "away_win_probability": 0.265544
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.468912,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 7-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 7 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.734456,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8,
    "empirical_weight": 0.025,
    "blended_confidence": 0.917,
    "published_confidence": 0.734456,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.2,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.612,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.6442
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033934036810247564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03263789067308891
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.03239437686952168
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03182496979475335
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.031157039659101358
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022037780001436115,
      "1": 0.03836949959804737,
      "2": 0.06025921330735557,
      "3": 0.08536499321185971,
      "4": 0.10908252767317643,
      "5": 0.12573309494712415,
      "6": 0.13072632404274984,
      "7": 0.12260142632907399,
      "8": 0.10371630268931657,
      "9": 0.07914392062928315,
      "10": 0.054476240033035826,
      "11": 0.033823279880584915,
      "12": 0.0189427638027394,
      "13": 0.00956951657714013,
      "14": 0.0043606947235859984,
      "15": 0.001792422553490889
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1644430104482371,
      "1": 0.24780301218389758,
      "2": 0.25958074671441483,
      "3": 0.18902232793389634,
      "4": 0.09568160933938602,
      "5": 0.033668096959771104,
      "6": 0.008235375401880816,
      "7": 0.001400306053825386,
      "8": 0.00016551496469094062
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 7 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 7 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0031,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.962,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6442,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.7345,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7345,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6442,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.612,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0031,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T19:38:55.835391+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.734456,
      "confidence": 0.734456,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.734456,
      "confidence": 0.734456,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 8
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "verified calibration sample is sparse; probability was shrunk toward even rather than clamped",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "home_net_margin": 17.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
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        "away_run_delta": -0.1062,
        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 2.0
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            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          "runs_allowed": 516,
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8518518518518519,
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        "away": {
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          "losses": 83,
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          "runs_scored": 641,
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          "run_differential": -140,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.037037037037037,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8889,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.2074,
        "quality_edge": 1.6442,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.2,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.612,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.6442
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        "margin_adjustment": 2.6307,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.6442,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.2,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.878,
          "home_runs": 6.627,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6248867229289687,
      "home_runs": 5.964570467339649,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_HOU@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 57.9% → blended 54.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1646

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.023274273351886-4.923808971946689	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.579459,
    "sample_size": 332,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.548779,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1778,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.14,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1646
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028345296062458843
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02784352686749477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027405127642195014
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026920001333949322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02489505756143662
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05489642821832147,
      "1": 0.09273514381767627,
      "2": 0.13302325795179512,
      "3": 0.16202938348474916,
      "4": 0.16758801147203983,
      "5": 0.14718890862913844,
      "6": 0.10977164978405818,
      "7": 0.06951655896154244,
      "8": 0.037382583390786144,
      "9": 0.017069992250231276,
      "10": 0.006618815969623837,
      "11": 0.002179266070037745
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05745043010594352,
      "1": 0.09682977326512501,
      "2": 0.13795525637460554,
      "3": 0.16614271285234594,
      "4": 0.16913677663147125,
      "5": 0.14554875971121914,
      "6": 0.10587481768184197,
      "7": 0.06510143313658415,
      "8": 0.033837800851449405,
      "9": 0.014867139559414622,
      "10": 0.005521618709643149,
      "11": 0.0017334811203562385
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0676,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1646,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6022,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1646,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.14,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0676,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    }
  ]
}

20260829_KC@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreKC 5 - 4 CLE

Final confidence55.2%

Calibrationraw 57.6% → blended 55.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.8% · weight 50.0% · n=413

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3271

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.955160657742426-3.85283586430707	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.103612,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.551806,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.448194,
    "away_win_probability": 0.551806
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.103612,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.55180614,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.575621,
    "sample_size": 413,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5278,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551711,
    "published_confidence": 0.551806,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6044,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3271
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.022773223622876277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0444142898291826,
      "1": 0.0757350453714274,
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      "9": 0.029525575088595643,
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      "3": 0.11586500627454974,
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          "10": 0.028760831176600044,
          "11": 0.01436073285054293,
          "12": 0.006335167423471562,
          "13": 0.002469141127968997
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.955160657742426,
      "home_runs": 3.85283586430707,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_LAD@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 2 DET

Final confidence66.5%

Calibrationraw 74.0% → blended 64.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=198

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8316

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.3156856993129304-3.2279591656076665	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.330792,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.665396,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.334604,
    "away_win_probability": 0.665396
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.330792,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 DET",
    "confidence": 0.665396,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.74,
    "sample_size": 198,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6478,
    "published_confidence": 0.665396,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7947,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.9,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8316
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.039631211460124424
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03702329662172639
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03637838900423203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03451779704245501
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03330851665692525
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1349384683742732,
      "1": 0.21164420750347637,
      "2": 0.24299686134559198,
      "3": 0.20422956315261712,
      "4": 0.12564934229432742,
      "5": 0.05658815023267094,
      "6": 0.018655824303161386,
      "7": 0.004502223547718984,
      "8": 0.0007953592461626396
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04939133377548413,
      "1": 0.0838458279153881,
      "2": 0.12205512322839009,
      "3": 0.15236121329596755,
      "4": 0.1630935117460658,
      "5": 0.14970723820376597,
      "6": 0.11784000868729284,
      "7": 0.07954018301342419,
      "8": 0.0460388279376131,
      "9": 0.022851030207682584,
      "10": 0.009725930522982274,
      "11": 0.003549771465943246
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 DET",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0142,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.25,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8316,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6654,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6594,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6654,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8316,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.9,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0142,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T16:35:22.992387+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.334604,
      "confidence": 0.665396,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.334604,
      "confidence": 0.665396,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 2,
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        "total_runs": 6
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.74,
        "sample_size": 198,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.6478
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6478,
        "final_confidence": 0.6608,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6608,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.945833,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.0,
        "calibration_sample_size": 198,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5509,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.8316,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 2
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.339208,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.33,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.945833,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.334604,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.665396
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": -1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 134,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.4626865671641791,
          "runs_scored": 593,
          "runs_allowed": 524,
          "run_differential": 69,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5149253731343284,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 54,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "runs_scored": 663,
          "runs_allowed": 514,
          "run_differential": 149,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1037037037037036,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5888,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1373,
        "quality_edge": -0.8316,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.7947,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7947,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.9,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.8316
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3493,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3493,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8316,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7947,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.065,
          "home_runs": 0.82,
          "home_win_probability": 0.1392
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.039631211460124424
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03702329662172639
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 1,
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            "probability": 0.03451779704245501
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.03330851665692525
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.1349384683742732,
          "1": 0.21164420750347637,
          "2": 0.24299686134559198,
          "3": 0.20422956315261712,
          "4": 0.12564934229432742,
          "5": 0.05658815023267094,
          "6": 0.018655824303161386,
          "7": 0.004502223547718984,
          "8": 0.0007953592461626396
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04939133377548413,
          "1": 0.0838458279153881,
          "2": 0.12205512322839009,
          "3": 0.15236121329596755,
          "4": 0.1630935117460658,
          "5": 0.14970723820376597,
          "6": 0.11784000868729284,
          "7": 0.07954018301342419,
          "8": 0.0460388279376131,
          "9": 0.022851030207682584,
          "10": 0.009725930522982274,
          "11": 0.003549771465943246
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.3156856993129304,
      "home_runs": 3.2279591656076665,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_MIA@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreMIA 2 - 3 WAS

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=260

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0681

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.58855916114032-5.517285328558519	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.12024,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56012,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56012,
    "away_win_probability": 0.43988
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12024,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5601199475,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 260,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58385,
    "published_confidence": 0.56012,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.005,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0681
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03565763593496972
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03543877557380322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03535036481674221
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0351333904322017
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030120343696125193
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06139538929643111,
      "1": 0.10312436887824881,
      "2": 0.14541874372247032,
      "3": 0.1721523722999073,
      "4": 0.17109573101146233,
      "5": 0.14275748034547703,
      "6": 0.09999818399410947,
      "7": 0.05880562778634995,
      "8": 0.029032150519977373,
      "9": 0.01203297630631287,
      "10": 0.0041869758392532935
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10078500451366923,
      "1": 0.16338463484837767,
      "2": 0.2071283448412225,
      "3": 0.20534346604970513,
      "4": 0.15919714412767244,
      "5": 0.09651674954509287,
      "6": 0.04575969625797352,
      "7": 0.016965888531406372,
      "8": 0.004919071284880349
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.006,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0681,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5601,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5661,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5601,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0681,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0092,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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    "champion_reference": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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        "away": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.58855916114032,
      "home_runs": 5.517285328558519,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_PHI@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 6 - 3 LAA

Final confidence66.5%

Calibrationraw 74.0% → blended 64.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=198

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.877

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.727601776999405-2.642103316595305	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.330792,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.665396,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.334604,
    "away_win_probability": 0.665396
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.330792,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.665396,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.74,
    "sample_size": 198,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6478,
    "published_confidence": 0.665396,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0111,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.877
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02769335568670583
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02624236267443098
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.025849450604088553
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025298528038052714
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02466519400844578
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07902363318822522,
      "1": 0.13067126052934572,
      "2": 0.17580522961138628,
      "3": 0.1924474320358861,
      "4": 0.1714040472845618,
      "5": 0.12421059613415462,
      "6": 0.0732360379846177,
      "7": 0.03513335774127899,
      "8": 0.013713335333395265,
      "9": 0.004355070157148251
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032227828294908986,
      "1": 0.0555637258103093,
      "2": 0.08473342492958637,
      "3": 0.11429342450372267,
      "4": 0.1363611995068737,
      "5": 0.14390088448434993,
      "6": 0.13431954030578255,
      "7": 0.11089654434933566,
      "8": 0.08098412847180805,
      "9": 0.05231002111276164,
      "10": 0.029886355688063637,
      "11": 0.015103030845669486,
      "12": 0.006750848175163305,
      "13": 0.002669043521664688
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0497,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.978,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
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      "home_runs": 3,
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      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 3,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3,
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  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_PIT@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 4 - 3 STL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.4% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=332

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1267

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.834198249052492-3.8550814003153078	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 STL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.553938,
    "sample_size": 332,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536019,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1949,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1267
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030727880289048024
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030383641698321667
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029826583669442155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029492442133092506
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026397643463312283
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06518167486345006,
      "1": 0.10911539415984906,
      "2": 0.15231757001528282,
      "3": 0.1773035560485982,
      "4": 0.17210296641444572,
      "5": 0.13930372594033744,
      "6": 0.09402440109511417,
      "7": 0.052920249805456725,
      "8": 0.02483743033232069,
      "9": 0.009720641016445587,
      "10": 0.0031723903086997253
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06221438643013107,
      "1": 0.1044237721580081,
      "2": 0.14692898846179092,
      "3": 0.1733066215582593,
      "4": 0.17136510048334072,
      "5": 0.142046049517669,
      "6": 0.09870416892687398,
      "7": 0.05749649736193417,
      "8": 0.02807675015314116,
      "9": 0.011493487882882078,
      "10": 0.003944177065969574
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0479,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.07,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1267,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5737,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1267,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0479,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T17:43:27.444462+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T18:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.453392,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.453392,
      "confidence": 0.546608,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.553938,
        "sample_size": 332,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.536019
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
        "final_confidence": 0.5082,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5082,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.966571,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 332,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5171,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1267,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491784,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.966571,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453392,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546608
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "STL",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 604,
          "runs_allowed": 614,
          "run_differential": -10,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.07352941176470588,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 136,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.47794117647058826,
          "runs_scored": 658,
          "runs_allowed": 637,
          "run_differential": 21,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.15441176470588236,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2279,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0221,
        "quality_edge": -0.1267,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1949,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1949,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.0,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1267
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.030727880289048024
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.030383641698321667
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.029492442133092506
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026397643463312283
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06518167486345006,
          "1": 0.10911539415984906,
          "2": 0.15231757001528282,
          "3": 0.1773035560485982,
          "4": 0.17210296641444572,
          "5": 0.13930372594033744,
          "6": 0.09402440109511417,
          "7": 0.052920249805456725,
          "8": 0.02483743033232069,
          "9": 0.009720641016445587,
          "10": 0.0031723903086997253
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06221438643013107,
          "1": 0.1044237721580081,
          "2": 0.14692898846179092,
          "3": 0.1733066215582593,
          "4": 0.17136510048334072,
          "5": 0.142046049517669,
          "6": 0.09870416892687398,
          "7": 0.05749649736193417,
          "8": 0.02807675015314116,
          "9": 0.011493487882882078,
          "10": 0.003944177065969574
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.834198249052492,
      "home_runs": 3.8550814003153078,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_SD@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 TB

Final confidence62.1%

Calibrationraw 70.9% → blended 63.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=310

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2146

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.3494333243662195-4.452110067938347	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.242814,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.621407,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.621407,
    "away_win_probability": 0.378593
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.242814,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.6214071999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.708791,
    "sample_size": 310,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.633445,
    "published_confidence": 0.621407,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0417,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0417,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3947,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.12,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2146
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02549083976656635
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02501885327763328
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02452480468650507
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02407070523110247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02335610741863352
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.034038324644180995,
      "1": 0.05858626620903323,
      "2": 0.08889169766189906,
      "3": 0.11889519830504937,
      "4": 0.14018616849368218,
      "5": 0.1457081189530388,
      "6": 0.13350578126099208,
      "7": 0.1078336060828015,
      "8": 0.07677961326410838,
      "9": 0.048192055133220495,
      "10": 0.026665068831323666,
      "11": 0.013006118494370564,
      "12": 0.005592299714506684,
      "13": 0.002119682951793074
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06340465699961949,
      "1": 0.10630878285193163,
      "2": 0.1491061501842227,
      "3": 0.17494453946510663,
      "4": 0.1717052794134057,
      "5": 0.140976047006101,
      "6": 0.09682453762786855,
      "7": 0.05562934644690322,
      "8": 0.02673627543479449,
      "9": 0.010749203341869509,
      "10": 0.0036151812281771255
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0496,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2146,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.6214,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5949,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6214,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2146,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.12,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0496,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-29T19:38:53.912559+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.642832,
      "confidence": 0.642832,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.642832,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 5.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 80,
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          "runs_scored": 604,
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          "run_differential": 52,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3880597014925373,
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        "away": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.08888888888888889,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2992,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0637,
        "quality_edge": 0.2146,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3947,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.12,
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          "alignment": "conflict",
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.3494333243662195,
      "home_runs": 4.452110067938347,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_SEA@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreSEA 4 - 5 TOR

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 66.7% → blended 61.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.5% · weight 50.0% · n=292

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2197

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.284451870244987-5.37762111360025	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.667157,
    "sample_size": 292,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5651,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.616128,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0644,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2197
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024232003192076565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023991638750010813
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022859507401266764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022764155545127358
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022632757152892743
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.031202480946299627,
      "1": 0.05384777861562731,
      "2": 0.08235429132349113,
      "3": 0.11162062593526555,
      "4": 0.13407334654608652,
      "5": 0.14271848367213308,
      "6": 0.13463493743957028,
      "7": 0.11255767140724929,
      "8": 0.0833935004415468,
      "9": 0.054755668375292506,
      "10": 0.031861465101247,
      "11": 0.016430174538143317,
      "12": 0.007508589963490119,
      "13": 0.0030409856945574215
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058721652392719974,
      "1": 0.09886083567033965,
      "2": 0.14037337813431275,
      "3": 0.16810463601285705,
      "4": 0.16978882180211993,
      "5": 0.1446348546986318,
      "6": 0.10391333838717456,
      "7": 0.06296570875179325,
      "8": 0.03217891227760813,
      "9": 0.013869892286993554,
      "10": 0.00504207477193408,
      "11": 0.0015458948135152143
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0666,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.508,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2197,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6382,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2197,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0666,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-29T19:07:00+00:00",
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      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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  },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260829_TEX@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreTEX 3 - 7 MIL

Final confidence73.4%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 80.0% · weight 2.5% · n=5

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5454

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7665494242517235-5.19878605178722	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.468912,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.734456,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.734456,
    "away_win_probability": 0.265544
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.468912,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
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    "home_runs": 7,
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        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 84,
          "losses": 51,
          "win_pct": 0.6222222222222222,
          "runs_scored": 674,
          "runs_allowed": 496,
          "run_differential": 178,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3185185185185184,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 135,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.4888888888888889,
          "runs_scored": 544,
          "runs_allowed": 596,
          "run_differential": -52,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3851851851851852,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7037,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1333,
        "quality_edge": 1.5454,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.9037,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9037,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.88,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.5454
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.4726,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.4726,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.5454,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.9037,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.239,
          "home_runs": 8.103,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 7,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02460437772712404
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 7,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02433648053645564
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02396341212308754
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.023702493889031694
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 8,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02310713529519503
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.015443571422251771,
          "1": 0.02707643696039947,
          "2": 0.04342154577612822,
          "3": 0.06369260891609058,
          "4": 0.08545604502753078,
          "5": 0.10487368616454866,
          "6": 0.11772271496257032,
          "7": 0.12087152410198759,
          "8": 0.11351616739658638,
          "9": 0.09751275663351826,
          "10": 0.0766187637989357,
          "11": 0.05506540527581785,
          "12": 0.036198663145283465,
          "13": 0.02176587929571243,
          "14": 0.011970985192311314,
          "15": 0.006022177658669562,
          "16": 0.002771068271657556
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09644496298751797,
          "1": 0.15696307383932284,
          "2": 0.2013417197910178,
          "3": 0.20355809947728995,
          "4": 0.16220391625475952,
          "5": 0.10187148065189787,
          "6": 0.050426895969174095,
          "7": 0.019673887701348793,
          "8": 0.0060497367201494375,
          "9": 0.0014662266075217976
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7665494242517235,
      "home_runs": 5.19878605178722,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260829	20260829_ARI@SF	ARI	52.7%	46.0%	51.8%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	7-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.4891, "published_confidence": 0.526939, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7532, "recent_quality_edge": -0.164, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.547 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02067479454943768 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019687681949215774 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01946931342912392 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019446382892003063 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019183085019720283 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.032809588819465295, "1": 0.056535974218340036, "2": 0.08607550990549995, "3": 0.11578837507514216, "4": 0.13761980740248908, "5": 0.14451987041028874, "6": 0.1340926002669724, "7": 0.10992910518428553, "8": 0.07962532252927881, "9": 0.05095893551717039, "10": 0.0288150993741562, "11": 0.014396288033069145, "12": 0.0063549416021855005, "13": 0.0024785816616568184 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.031487012166409256, "1": 0.054324252727554236, "2": 0.08301625432121308, "3": 0.11236720323470796, "4": 0.1347172079095488, "5": 0.14305849078567806, "6": 0.13455854088988045, "7": 0.11210267177306861, "8": 0.08272327539914452, "9": 0.05406877678268225, "10": 0.03130202481166707, "11": 0.016051121509033903, "12": 0.00729029995879751, "13": 0.0029328677306141924 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 7 - 6 SF", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 7 - 6 SF", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.027, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.547, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_ARI@SF_2	SF	51.9%	46.0%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	2-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.4891, "published_confidence": 0.518521, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7532, "recent_quality_edge": -0.164, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.547 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019600164581772366 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019002777538979637 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01876839611328869 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01819636027117607 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01818913443693732 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028587701461624718, "1": 0.04945815221242303, "2": 0.07620724805375424, "3": 0.10458139115528639, "4": 0.12782396758464165, "5": 0.13914574047701328, "6": 0.13490476269981286, "7": 0.11648885913468984, "8": 0.08958622672236857, "9": 0.0613617647710891, "10": 0.03743296097508685, "11": 0.020338094689906328, "12": 0.009841608663093547, "13": 0.004241521399209343 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02976795151532218, "1": 0.051441971596558396, "2": 0.07899616682708167, "3": 0.1077988651226811, "4": 0.13072002329774618, "5": 0.1408606868926059, "6": 0.13488300862784375, "7": 0.11477424500314426, "8": 0.08678634572643024, "9": 0.05831470957103415, "10": 0.03481966507094295, "11": 0.01847527106867626, "12": 0.008711176359636006, "13": 0.0036499133202970435 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 6 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0123, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.547, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_BAL@OAK	BAL	55.5%	64.7%	53.2%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	5-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.64654, "sample_size": 404, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5322, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58937, "published_confidence": 0.55459, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0187, "away_run_delta": -0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3519, "recent_quality_edge": -0.248, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9655 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015976293797434378 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015776087727657755 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015425240276433981 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01523193970433253 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014915425684743041 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.022383811643517455, "1": 0.03895835191129256, "2": 0.061119898353599565, "3": 0.0864331187358103, "4": 0.11017758725765771, "5": 0.1265965425687607, "6": 0.13111909581777367, "7": 0.1224124414784341, "8": 0.10301505232869677, "9": 0.07814322459257461, "10": 0.053431514330372624, "11": 0.032932079168437954, "12": 0.018296007602578178, "13": 0.009162395338694177, "14": 0.004135968618390847, "15": 0.00168291025340862 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.016398353020310983, "1": 0.028719935888490023, "2": 0.045910879853334974, "3": 0.06698794896432098, "4": 0.08921269538913366, "5": 0.10844400698732302, "6": 0.1203187653885518, "7": 0.1218456678471751, "8": 0.11262524110713486, "9": 0.09501896378022102, "10": 0.0731701190089314, "11": 0.05142877123772544, "12": 0.032993428689481734, "13": 0.01931957938755982, "14": 0.010325635717666383, "15": 0.005037149571455767, "16": 0.0022428581611830577 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 6 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 7 - 6 OAK", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0267, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.248, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9655, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_BOS@NYY	BOS	53.0%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5141, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.041, "recent_quality_edge": -0.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0071 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026941384186025458 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025529601861008312 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025174373188378663 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024722713340306735 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024281308029053955 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05167042001077325, "1": 0.08753644875814334, "2": 0.12665203324761587, "3": 0.1564990548319842, "4": 0.16515342401081315, "5": 0.14884688673641264, "6": 0.11456929459268367, "7": 0.07531353509696898, "8": 0.04228186522268366, "9": 0.020272698066554826, "10": 0.008301284099753531, "11": 0.0029030553256130173 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04942848527896958, "1": 0.08390610734586643, "2": 0.12213069655204412, "3": 0.1524302226197285, "4": 0.1631294316021054, "5": 0.1496954331306389, "6": 0.11778765310171994, "7": 0.0794705054504893, "8": 0.04597557516118111, "9": 0.022806747585087717, "10": 0.009700955896916401, "11": 0.0035381862752525083 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 NYY", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0318, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.266, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0071, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_BOS@NYY_2	NYY	53.4%	51.0%	51.8%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	2-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5141, "published_confidence": 0.533674, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.041, "recent_quality_edge": -0.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0071 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03024808619225345 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030092365148882742 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029551565768836767 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02939943050231072 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025865573504305166 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.061235872923865314, "1": 0.10287105899431172, "2": 0.1451234350011277, "3": 0.17192495894661755, "4": 0.17103986711573374, "5": 0.14289361151800836, "6": 0.10025021584690418, "7": 0.05906291278880089, "8": 0.02922142879295603, "9": 0.012140737643999111, "10": 0.00423590042767544 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06414340626412475, "1": 0.10747666910062356, "2": 0.15044687904992543, "3": 0.17593772525864285, "4": 0.17188642038886562, "5": 0.14029137349716192, "6": 0.09565929416261482, "7": 0.05449167805008433, "8": 0.02593223790044646, "9": 0.010309951382189535, "10": 0.0034243649453207722 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0074, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.266, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0071, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_CHW@MIN	CHW	57.1%	63.9%	55.8%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	3-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.638796, "sample_size": 260, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.598248, "published_confidence": 0.570729, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8714, "recent_quality_edge": -0.388, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7022 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01964705495251141 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01938829531415723 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019332773024779783 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019078152606179285 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.0178749992090072 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03675252855470664, "1": 0.06309990802821581, "2": 0.09502451902827531, "3": 0.12551859959488593, "4": 0.14542730017526886, "5": 0.14779142932452785, "6": 0.13174010592624857, "7": 0.10300355610141236, "8": 0.07064019348835307, "9": 0.042492960830806975, "10": 0.022420616855500605, "11": 0.010376325157006604, "12": 0.00421216174207842, "13": 0.00149979519271293 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.024375990505985635, "1": 0.042341517393755704, "2": 0.06603304144745173, "3": 0.09245851674780205, "4": 0.11623134961027631, "5": 0.13118687195035808, "6": 0.13293771528096815, "7": 0.12094746827135949, "8": 0.09879525600506135, "9": 0.07245462909071734, "10": 0.04770752887016938, "11": 0.02820320366605757, "12": 0.01496927280101381, "13": 0.007133352739672815, "14": 0.0030519501440525905, "15": 0.001172335475298083 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 MIN", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 7 - 5 MIN", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1131, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.458, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7022, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_CIN@CHC	CHC	56.0%	75.9%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	5-17	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.759078, "sample_size": 175, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.650989, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.7259, "recent_quality_edge": 0.384, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2563 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016679444223958992 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01624428013912949 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015805772023665107 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01574118281552083 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015611439756811644 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.013310543627191829, "1": 0.02339332267810361, "2": 0.0377887661491886, "3": 0.05610585627319868, "4": 0.07656466034038399, "5": 0.09603359967030362, "6": 0.11071150084004804, "7": 0.1173105175674355, "8": 0.11424990455583534, "9": 0.10227027492015237, "10": 0.08414294016902477, "11": 0.06362980988164607, "12": 0.04422605995668, "13": 0.028253389553535662, "14": 0.016589662356608924, "15": 0.008953219234909833, "16": 0.004441151347243462, "17": 0.0020248208785096566 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.030768529243577848, "1": 0.05312063699177829, "2": 0.08134209084105028, "3": 0.11047471984927933, "4": 0.13307792072298605, "5": 0.14218200183432722, "6": 0.13473448375657554, "7": 0.11324223208840603, "8": 0.08441771636946212, "9": 0.05581543302968166, "10": 0.032731847378869465, "11": 0.017024809331681375, "12": 0.007853975030977836, "13": 0.003213603531346947 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0893, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.454, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2563, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_COL@ATL	ATL	73.4%	92.0%	80.0%	2.5%	2.0-7.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 5, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8, "empirical_weight": 0.025, "blended_confidence": 0.917, "published_confidence": 0.734456, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": 4.25, "home_run_delta": 0.1062, "away_run_delta": -0.1062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.2, "recent_quality_edge": 0.612, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.6442 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.033934036810247564 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03263789067308891 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.03239437686952168 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03182496979475335 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.031157039659101358 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.022037780001436115, "1": 0.03836949959804737, "2": 0.06025921330735557, "3": 0.08536499321185971, "4": 0.10908252767317643, "5": 0.12573309494712415, "6": 0.13072632404274984, "7": 0.12260142632907399, "8": 0.10371630268931657, "9": 0.07914392062928315, "10": 0.054476240033035826, "11": 0.033823279880584915, "12": 0.0189427638027394, "13": 0.00956951657714013, "14": 0.0043606947235859984, "15": 0.001792422553490889 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.1644430104482371, "1": 0.24780301218389758, "2": 0.25958074671441483, "3": 0.18902232793389634, "4": 0.09568160933938602, "5": 0.033668096959771104, "6": 0.008235375401880816, "7": 0.001400306053825386, "8": 0.00016551496469094062 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 2 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 2 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0031, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.962, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6442, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_HOU@NYM	NYM	53.0%	57.9%	51.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.0995)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.579459, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548779, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1778, "recent_quality_edge": -0.14, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1646 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028345296062458843 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02784352686749477 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027405127642195014 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026920001333949322 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02489505756143662 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05489642821832147, "1": 0.09273514381767627, "2": 0.13302325795179512, "3": 0.16202938348474916, "4": 0.16758801147203983, "5": 0.14718890862913844, "6": 0.10977164978405818, "7": 0.06951655896154244, "8": 0.037382583390786144, "9": 0.017069992250231276, "10": 0.006618815969623837, "11": 0.002179266070037745 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05745043010594352, "1": 0.09682977326512501, "2": 0.13795525637460554, "3": 0.16614271285234594, "4": 0.16913677663147125, "5": 0.14554875971121914, "6": 0.10587481768184197, "7": 0.06510143313658415, "8": 0.033837800851449405, "9": 0.014867139559414622, "10": 0.005521618709643149, "11": 0.0017334811203562385 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0676, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.49, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1646, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_KC@CLE	KC	55.2%	57.6%	52.8%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	8-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1023)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.575621, "sample_size": 413, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5278, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.551711, "published_confidence": 0.551806, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6044, "recent_quality_edge": -0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3271 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022773223622876277 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021763152457135046 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021691384839775143 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02112360633067282 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020729296962605028 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0444142898291826, "1": 0.0757350453714274, "2": 0.11173824325051136, "3": 0.14263876493744543, "4": 0.15754480316830427, "5": 0.15055714671580142, "6": 0.12448856214184954, "7": 0.08906115181620687, "8": 0.05512872466143193, "9": 0.029525575088595643, "10": 0.0136819993861969, "11": 0.005485693633046768 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03283957321869081, "1": 0.05658605833053434, "2": 0.08614452975309735, "3": 0.11586500627454974, "4": 0.1376839121541975, "5": 0.14455077644514724, "6": 0.1340799944261353, "7": 0.10987878812443633, "8": 0.07955547290149476, "9": 0.05089001579313312, "10": 0.028760831176600044, "11": 0.01436073285054293, "12": 0.006335167423471562, "13": 0.002469141127968997 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CLE", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 CLE", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0891, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.258, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3271, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_LAD@DET	LAD	66.5%	74.0%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	1-2	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0877)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.74, "sample_size": 198, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6478, "published_confidence": 0.665396, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7947, "recent_quality_edge": -0.9, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8316 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.039631211460124424 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03702329662172639 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03637838900423203 }, { "home_runs": 1, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03451779704245501 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03330851665692525 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.1349384683742732, "1": 0.21164420750347637, "2": 0.24299686134559198, "3": 0.20422956315261712, "4": 0.12564934229432742, "5": 0.05658815023267094, "6": 0.018655824303161386, "7": 0.004502223547718984, "8": 0.0007953592461626396 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04939133377548413, "1": 0.0838458279153881, "2": 0.12205512322839009, "3": 0.15236121329596755, "4": 0.1630935117460658, "5": 0.14970723820376597, "6": 0.11784000868729284, "7": 0.07954018301342419, "8": 0.0460388279376131, "9": 0.022851030207682584, "10": 0.009725930522982274, "11": 0.003549771465943246 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 2 DET", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0142, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.25, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8316, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_MIA@WAS	WAS	56.0%	61.0%	55.8%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	4-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.0713)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 260, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58385, "published_confidence": 0.56012, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.005, "recent_quality_edge": 0.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0681 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03565763593496972 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03543877557380322 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03535036481674221 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0351333904322017 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030120343696125193 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06139538929643111, "1": 0.10312436887824881, "2": 0.14541874372247032, "3": 0.1721523722999073, "4": 0.17109573101146233, "5": 0.14275748034547703, "6": 0.09999818399410947, "7": 0.05880562778634995, "8": 0.029032150519977373, "9": 0.01203297630631287, "10": 0.0041869758392532935 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10078500451366923, "1": 0.16338463484837767, "2": 0.2071283448412225, "3": 0.20534346604970513, "4": 0.15919714412767244, "5": 0.09651674954509287, "6": 0.04575969625797352, "7": 0.016965888531406372, "8": 0.004919071284880349 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIA 2 - 3 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.006, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0681, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_PHI@LAA	PHI	66.5%	74.0%	55.6%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.74, "sample_size": 198, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6478, "published_confidence": 0.665396, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0111, "recent_quality_edge": -0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.877 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02769335568670583 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02624236267443098 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.025849450604088553 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.025298528038052714 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02466519400844578 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07902363318822522, "1": 0.13067126052934572, "2": 0.17580522961138628, "3": 0.1924474320358861, "4": 0.1714040472845618, "5": 0.12421059613415462, "6": 0.0732360379846177, "7": 0.03513335774127899, "8": 0.013713335333395265, "9": 0.004355070157148251 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.032227828294908986, "1": 0.0555637258103093, "2": 0.08473342492958637, "3": 0.11429342450372267, "4": 0.1363611995068737, "5": 0.14390088448434993, "6": 0.13431954030578255, "7": 0.11089654434933566, "8": 0.08098412847180805, "9": 0.05231002111276164, "10": 0.029886355688063637, "11": 0.015103030845669486, "12": 0.006750848175163305, "13": 0.002669043521664688 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 LAA", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 3 LAA", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0497, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.978, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.877, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_PIT@STL	PIT	53.0%	55.4%	51.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0209)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.553938, "sample_size": 332, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5181, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.536019, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1949, "recent_quality_edge": 0.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1267 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030727880289048024 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030383641698321667 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029826583669442155 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029492442133092506 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026397643463312283 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06518167486345006, "1": 0.10911539415984906, "2": 0.15231757001528282, "3": 0.1773035560485982, "4": 0.17210296641444572, "5": 0.13930372594033744, "6": 0.09402440109511417, "7": 0.052920249805456725, "8": 0.02483743033232069, "9": 0.009720641016445587, "10": 0.0031723903086997253 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06221438643013107, "1": 0.1044237721580081, "2": 0.14692898846179092, "3": 0.1733066215582593, "4": 0.17136510048334072, "5": 0.142046049517669, "6": 0.09870416892687398, "7": 0.05749649736193417, "8": 0.02807675015314116, "9": 0.011493487882882078, "10": 0.003944177065969574 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 STL", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0479, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.07, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1267, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_SD@TB	TB	62.1%	70.9%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.708791, "sample_size": 310, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.633445, "published_confidence": 0.621407, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0417, "away_run_delta": -0.0417, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3947, "recent_quality_edge": -0.12, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2146 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02549083976656635 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02501885327763328 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02452480468650507 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02407070523110247 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02335610741863352 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.034038324644180995, "1": 0.05858626620903323, "2": 0.08889169766189906, "3": 0.11889519830504937, "4": 0.14018616849368218, "5": 0.1457081189530388, "6": 0.13350578126099208, "7": 0.1078336060828015, "8": 0.07677961326410838, "9": 0.048192055133220495, "10": 0.026665068831323666, "11": 0.013006118494370564, "12": 0.005592299714506684, "13": 0.002119682951793074 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06340465699961949, "1": 0.10630878285193163, "2": 0.1491061501842227, "3": 0.17494453946510663, "4": 0.1717052794134057, "5": 0.140976047006101, "6": 0.09682453762786855, "7": 0.05562934644690322, "8": 0.02673627543479449, "9": 0.010749203341869509, "10": 0.0036151812281771255 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0496, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2146, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_SEA@TOR	TOR	54.0%	66.7%	56.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.667157, "sample_size": 292, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5651, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.616128, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0375, "away_run_delta": 0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -11.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0644, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2197 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024232003192076565 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023991638750010813 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022859507401266764 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022764155545127358 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022632757152892743 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.031202480946299627, "1": 0.05384777861562731, "2": 0.08235429132349113, "3": 0.11162062593526555, "4": 0.13407334654608652, "5": 0.14271848367213308, "6": 0.13463493743957028, "7": 0.11255767140724929, "8": 0.0833935004415468, "9": 0.054755668375292506, "10": 0.031861465101247, "11": 0.016430174538143317, "12": 0.007508589963490119, "13": 0.0030409856945574215 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058721652392719974, "1": 0.09886083567033965, "2": 0.14037337813431275, "3": 0.16810463601285705, "4": 0.16978882180211993, "5": 0.1446348546986318, "6": 0.10391333838717456, "7": 0.06296570875179325, "8": 0.03217891227760813, "9": 0.013869892286993554, "10": 0.00504207477193408, "11": 0.0015458948135152143 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0666, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.508, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2197, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260829	20260829_TEX@MIL	MIL	73.4%	92.0%	80.0%	2.5%	3.0-7.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 5, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8, "empirical_weight": 0.025, "blended_confidence": 0.917, "published_confidence": 0.734456, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0417, "away_run_delta": -0.0417, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.9037, "recent_quality_edge": 0.88, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5454 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02460437772712404 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02433648053645564 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02396341212308754 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.023702493889031694 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02310713529519503 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.015443571422251771, "1": 0.02707643696039947, "2": 0.04342154577612822, "3": 0.06369260891609058, "4": 0.08545604502753078, "5": 0.10487368616454866, "6": 0.11772271496257032, "7": 0.12087152410198759, "8": 0.11351616739658638, "9": 0.09751275663351826, "10": 0.0766187637989357, "11": 0.05506540527581785, "12": 0.036198663145283465, "13": 0.02176587929571243, "14": 0.011970985192311314, "15": 0.006022177658669562, "16": 0.002771068271657556 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09644496298751797, "1": 0.15696307383932284, "2": 0.2013417197910178, "3": 0.20355809947728995, "4": 0.16220391625475952, "5": 0.10187148065189787, "6": 0.050426895969174095, "7": 0.019673887701348793, "8": 0.0060497367201494375, "9": 0.0014662266075217976 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 7 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 7 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1373, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.23, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5454, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.8846, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5769 }
R	{ "mae": 1.5769, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8077 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6923, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9231 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2692, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1923 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.0769, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9231, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3077 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.0, "mae_innings": 1.0, "bias_outs": 1.7692 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260829

20260829_ARI@SF

away

Merrill Kelly

Mitch Bratt

False

5.0

4.1

-2

-1

5/3

0/2

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.346534653465347,
      "WHIP": 1.5148514851485149,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.611,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.1651,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.099,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9374,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.2046,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 14.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.398,
      "barrel_percent": 12.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 711,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4605,
            "WHIP": 1.8158,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5849,
            "WHIP": 1.4906,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50943,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98113,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50943,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77358,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15094
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 134.2,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 590.0,
            "Pitches": 2178.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.3333,
            "R": 3.4583,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 1.0833,
            "BF": 24.5833,
            "Pitches": 90.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3465,
            "WHIP": 1.5149,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59406,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06931,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44554,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65347,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19307
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.373,
        "predicted_H": 5.479,
        "predicted_BB": 2.894,
        "predicted_SO": 3.918,
        "predicted_HR": 0.841,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7665,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5905
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.373,
          "final": 3.6381,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.479,
          "final": 5.2765,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.894,
          "final": 1.6703,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.918,
          "final": 5.2212,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.841,
          "final": 1.3311,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7665,
          "final": 5.7665,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5905,
          "final": 1.5905,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.584905660377358,
        "WHIP": 1.490566037735849,
        "K9": 6.962264150943396,
        "HR9": 1.3584905660377358,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0265444180034744,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5294,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 612.0,
        "run_differential": 4.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0294,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5294,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
        "offense_index": 1.0141,
        "defense_index": 0.9926,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0636
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4074,
        "runs_scored": 552.0,
        "runs_allowed": 625.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0889,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6296,
        "offense_index": 0.9154,
        "defense_index": 0.9648,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1803
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2439,
        "offense_edge": 0.0141,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0846,
        "defense_strength": -0.0074,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0352,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0129,
        "run_prevention": 0.975,
        "strikeout": 1.0141
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 535.0,
            "k_percent": 14.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.398,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3913,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.934,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5774,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6996,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -1.2111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0338
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.25223922501904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2316.2310668157406,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.25223922501904,
                "release_spin_rate": 2316.2310668157406,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2522,
              "release_spin_rate": 2316.2311,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0338,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2414,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.1651,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.099,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9374,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.2046,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "518876",
            "espn_id": 32968,
            "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 711,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 711,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 307,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 58,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 5.3465,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 52,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 134.2,
              "ip_rank": 54,
              "h_value": 144.0,
              "h_rank": 14,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 3,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 8,
              "bb_value": 60.0,
              "bb_rank": 11,
              "k_value": 88.0,
              "k_rank": 112,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.881188,
              "k_per_9_rank": 56,
              "whip_value": 1.5148,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.099,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.099,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.2,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9374,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_ARI@SF

home

Matt Wilkinson

Yunior Marte

False

3.0

4.2

-5

7/3

1/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 6.352941176470588,
      "WHIP": 1.4117647058823528,
      "IP": 5.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.833,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2304,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9299,
      "walk_factor": 0.9172,
      "homer_factor": 1.0556,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 8.0,
      "bb_percent": 0.0,
      "woba": 0.389,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 52.2,
      "whiff_percent": 12.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 567,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.137,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1852,
        "prior_weight": 0.8148
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 1.41176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
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            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 1.41176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 1.41176,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.018,
        "predicted_H": 3.962,
        "predicted_BB": 1.13,
        "predicted_SO": 3.121,
        "predicted_HR": 0.569,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8394,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3568
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "model_weight": 0.6943,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.018,
          "final": 4.7825,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.962,
          "final": 6.0711,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.13,
          "final": 1.0397,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.121,
          "final": 3.037,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.569,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.8394,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3568,
          "final": 1.3568,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 5.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 2,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 6.352941176470589,
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        "K9": 3.1764705882352944,
        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0413315733694042,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.137,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1852,
          "prior_weight": 0.8148
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.1,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 25,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.78399999999999,
                "release_spin_rate": 2033.08,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2033.08,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.116,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.8287,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2304,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9299,
          "walk_factor": 0.9172,
          "homer_factor": 1.0556,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.062,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_id": 5339226,
            "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 567,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 567,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 731,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 266,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 6.3529,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 512,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 406,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 5.2,
              "ip_rank": 679,
              "h_value": 8.0,
              "h_rank": 637,
              "er_value": 4.0,
              "er_rank": 656,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 587,
              "bb_value": 0.0,
              "bb_rank": 792,
              "k_value": 2.0,
              "k_rank": 719,
              "k_per_9_value": 3.1764708,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.4117,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9627,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.025,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9685,
            "adjusted": 1
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_BAL@OAK

away

Shane Baz

True

6.0

5.2

-1

-2

4/5

4/3

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.044052863436123,
      "WHIP": 1.3480176211453743,
      "IP": 151.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.821,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1032,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0088,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9786,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0165,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 124,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2955,
            "WHIP": 1.1932,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06818
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6105,
            "WHIP": 1.2907,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40116,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99419,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29651,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03488
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.1,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 152.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 645.0,
            "Pitches": 2472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6154,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.8462,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.1923,
            "HR": 0.4231,
            "BF": 24.8077,
            "Pitches": 95.0769
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0441,
            "WHIP": 1.348,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44934,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00441,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34361,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89207,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07269
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.653,
        "predicted_H": 5.641,
        "predicted_BB": 1.796,
        "predicted_SO": 5.484,
        "predicted_HR": 0.419,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0845,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2722
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.653,
          "final": 3.2162,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.641,
          "final": 4.9548,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.796,
          "final": 2.7176,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.484,
          "final": 6.1179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.419,
          "final": 1.0801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0845,
          "final": 4.0845,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2722,
          "final": 1.2722,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.6104651162790695,
        "WHIP": 1.2906976744186045,
        "K9": 8.476744186046512,
        "HR9": 0.313953488372093,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9119231477094858,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "player_name": "Shane Baz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4889,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1704,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5407,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7111,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 0.9508,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0304
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3926,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 774.0,
        "run_differential": -186.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3778,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3556,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7333,
        "offense_index": 0.9724,
        "defense_index": 0.7813,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2955
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2651,
        "offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0276,
        "defense_strength": -0.0492,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2187,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0102,
        "run_prevention": 0.9872,
        "strikeout": 1.0102
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 596.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.8384,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.579,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1427,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1489,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0507
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669358",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.76192251441194,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.76192251441194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287280515663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7619,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.5287,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0507,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3625,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1032,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0088,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9786,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0165,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_id": 39639,
            "player_name": "Shane Baz",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 124,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 124,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 4.044,
              "era_rank": 42.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 151.1,
              "ip_rank": 15,
              "h_value": 152.0,
              "h_rank": 7,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 23,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 136,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 21,
              "k_value": 135.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.028634,
              "k_per_9_rank": 66,
              "whip_value": 1.348,
              "whip_rank": 45.0,
              "war_value": 1.35,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0165,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_BAL@OAK

home

Jack Perkins

True

4.0

5.0

-5

5/4

3/4

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.675276752767528,
      "WHIP": 1.4833948339483396,
      "IP": 90.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.606,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0429,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0289,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0263,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.355,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 826,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.12,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7837,
        "prior_weight": 0.2163
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 80.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.3636,
            "WHIP": 1.8636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "H_per_IP": 1.36364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 797.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 79.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1053,
            "WHIP": 1.6015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49624,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06015,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24812
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 96.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 411.0,
            "Pitches": 1593.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.1613,
            "R": 2.3226,
            "H": 3.0968,
            "BB": 1.2258,
            "SO": 3.3548,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 13.2581,
            "Pitches": 51.3871
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6753,
            "WHIP": 1.4834,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7417,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42066,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15129,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18819
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.061,
        "predicted_H": 4.874,
        "predicted_BB": 1.923,
        "predicted_SO": 4.446,
        "predicted_HR": 0.946,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.5645,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6198
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4414,
      "form_weight": 0.5586,
      "form_reliability": 0.7837,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.12,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7837,
        "prior_weight": 0.2163
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.061,
          "final": 3.9168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.874,
          "final": 4.9296,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.923,
          "final": 2.3984,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.446,
          "final": 4.2491,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.946,
          "final": 1.8526,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.5645,
          "final": 6.5645,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6198,
          "final": 1.6198,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 7.105263157894737,
        "WHIP": 1.6015037593984964,
        "K9": 9.541353383458647,
        "HR9": 2.2330827067669174,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3128580795157458,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.12,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7837,
          "prior_weight": 0.2163
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 53,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.3926,
        "runs_scored": 588.0,
        "runs_allowed": 774.0,
        "run_differential": -186.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3778,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3556,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7333,
        "offense_index": 0.9724,
        "defense_index": 0.7813,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2955
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4889,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1704,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5407,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7111,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 0.9508,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0304
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2651,
        "offense_edge": -0.0276,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "defense_strength": -0.2187,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0492,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9823,
        "run_prevention": 1.0373,
        "strikeout": 0.991
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 379.0,
            "k_percent": 25.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.355,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.5915,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5504,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2933,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2989,
            "regression_edge": 1.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0819
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
                "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.2788,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0819,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5852,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0429,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9964,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0289,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0263,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.043,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_id": 4418686,
            "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 826,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 826,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
              "gp_rank": 201,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 157,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 6.6752,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 231,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 21,
              "sv_value": 3.0,
              "sv_rank": 65,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 222,
              "ip_value": 90.1,
              "ip_rank": 130,
              "h_value": 96.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 53,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 79,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 82,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.361624,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.4833,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0289,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_BAL@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_BOS@NYY

away

Jake Bennett

Alec Gamboa

False

5.2

1.1

-13

-3

4/1

4/0

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4904942965779466,
      "WHIP": 1.0722433460076044,
      "IP": 87.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.844,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2988,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9746,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9769,
      "walk_factor": 0.918,
      "homer_factor": 0.9538,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.269,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 129,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 430.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.3412,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02353,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3934,
            "WHIP": 1.0492,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83607,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21311,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09836
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 87.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 352.0,
            "Pitches": 1233.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2667,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 5.0667,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.4667,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 23.4667,
            "Pitches": 82.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4905,
            "WHIP": 1.0722,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38783,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20532,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76426,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07985
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.812,
        "predicted_H": 5.448,
        "predicted_BB": 1.662,
        "predicted_SO": 4.882,
        "predicted_HR": 0.639,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3607,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.225
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.812,
          "final": 2.8977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.448,
          "final": 4.7883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.662,
          "final": 2.7273,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.882,
          "final": 4.4801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.639,
          "final": 0.8035,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3607,
          "final": 4.3607,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.225,
          "final": 1.225,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.3934426229508197,
        "WHIP": 1.0491803278688525,
        "K9": 6.639344262295082,
        "HR9": 0.8852459016393442,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8814701835463139,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5448,
        "runs_scored": 600.0,
        "runs_allowed": 500.0,
        "run_differential": 100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7463,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4776,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7313,
        "offense_index": 1.0001,
        "defense_index": 1.1999,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1998
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5672,
        "runs_scored": 597.0,
        "runs_allowed": 496.0,
        "run_differential": 101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7537,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4552,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7015,
        "offense_index": 0.9951,
        "defense_index": 1.2096,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2197
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0199,
        "offense_edge": 0.0001,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0049,
        "defense_strength": 0.1999,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2096,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0054,
        "run_prevention": 0.9802,
        "strikeout": 0.9998
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687562",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687562",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 318.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.269,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6778,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9508,
            "whiff_percent": 24.2,
            "swing_percent": 53.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.629,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0411,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0701
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687562",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.60453343047513,
              "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376155344834,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.60453343047513,
                "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376155344834,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6045,
              "release_spin_rate": 2085.5376,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0701,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5005,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2988,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9746,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9769,
          "walk_factor": 0.918,
          "homer_factor": 0.9538,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687562",
            "espn_id": 4654024,
            "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 129,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 129,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 439,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 125,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 3.4904,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 52,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 99,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 87.2,
              "ip_rank": 133,
              "h_value": 76.0,
              "h_rank": 146,
              "er_value": 34.0,
              "er_rank": 161,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 213,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 307,
              "k_value": 67.0,
              "k_rank": 169,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.878327,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.0722,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.918,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9538,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_BOS@NYY

home

Carlos Rodón

Max Fried

False

5.2

3.2

-6

-2

4/3

2/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.147239263803681,
      "WHIP": 1.214723926380368,
      "IP": 54.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.939,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0298,
      "sample_weight": 0.84,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
      "walk_factor": 1.0672,
      "homer_factor": 0.9836,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.4,
      "bb_percent": 13.2,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 180,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 54.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.147,
      "season_WHIP": 1.215,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0298,
          "sample_weight": 0.84,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
          "walk_factor": 1.0672,
          "homer_factor": 0.9836,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_id": 33696,
            "player_name": "Carlos Rodon",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 180,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 180,
              "gp_value": 11.0,
              "gp_rank": 493,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 157,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 3.1472,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 308,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 54.1,
              "ip_rank": 245,
              "h_value": 36.0,
              "h_rank": 334,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 308,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 355,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 144,
              "k_value": 58.0,
              "k_rank": 216,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.607362,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.2147,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.9,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9979,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9979,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0564,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9862,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_BOS@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_CHW@MIN

away

Erick Fedde

True

5.0

-2

3/3

1/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.183098591549296,
      "WHIP": 1.3859154929577466,
      "IP": 118.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.806,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.401,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0341,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9271,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0475,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 18.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 142,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 55.0,
            "Pitches": 205.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 11.0,
            "Pitches": 41.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7692,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30769,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 137.0,
            "Pitches": 533.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 13.7,
            "Pitches": 53.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.78,
            "WHIP": 1.23,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.1,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 512.0,
            "Pitches": 2008.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.9643,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 4.3214,
            "BB": 1.5357,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.7857,
            "BF": 18.2857,
            "Pitches": 71.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1831,
            "WHIP": 1.3859,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02254,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36338,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70986,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18592
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.369,
        "predicted_H": 3.308,
        "predicted_BB": 1.291,
        "predicted_SO": 2.649,
        "predicted_HR": 0.502,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5708,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3328
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.369,
          "final": 2.4583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.308,
          "final": 3.1805,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.291,
          "final": 1.1705,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.649,
          "final": 4.4504,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.502,
          "final": 1.1222,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5708,
          "final": 3.5708,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3328,
          "final": 1.3328,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 33.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.78,
        "WHIP": 1.23,
        "K9": 7.289999999999999,
        "HR9": 1.89,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9294783802676254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.3333,
              "percent_delta": 0.0714,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.3333,
              "percent_delta": 0.0714,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.3333,
            "percent_delta": 0.0714,
            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5299,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3507,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4851,
        "offense_index": 1.0816,
        "defense_index": 0.9968,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1036
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 619.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.437,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0222,
        "offense_index": 1.0256,
        "defense_index": 0.8902,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1108
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2144,
        "offense_edge": 0.0816,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0256,
        "defense_strength": -0.0032,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1098,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0075,
        "run_prevention": 0.9937,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 495.0,
            "k_percent": 16.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3874,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9984,
            "whiff_percent": 18.1,
            "swing_percent": 42.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4137,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6782,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0143,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0913
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 40,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 40,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.22606485710746,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.4724631960416,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 40,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.22606485710746,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.4724631960416,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2261,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.4725,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0913,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6519,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.401,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0341,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9271,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0475,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607200",
            "espn_id": 33793,
            "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 142,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 142,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 219,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 150,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 4.183,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 94,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 118.1,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 62,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 69,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 18,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 55,
              "k_value": 84.0,
              "k_rank": 128,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.3887324,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.3859,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0341,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0341,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0475,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9271,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_CHW@MIN

home

Bailey Ober

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-4

6/2

1/2

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.486153846153846,
      "WHIP": 1.2553846153846155,
      "IP": 108.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.417,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3832,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0326,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9369,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 1.0683,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 10.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2805,
            "WHIP": 1.2805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47561,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2561,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5122,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 864.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.3,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4351,
            "WHIP": 1.461,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6039,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 108.1,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 457.0,
            "Pitches": 1717.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.85,
            "H": 5.35,
            "BB": 1.45,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.85,
            "Pitches": 85.85
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4862,
            "WHIP": 1.2554,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16615
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.725,
        "predicted_H": 5.583,
        "predicted_BB": 1.438,
        "predicted_SO": 3.496,
        "predicted_HR": 0.952,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3398
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.725,
          "final": 3.7135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.583,
          "final": 5.7642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.438,
          "final": 1.2477,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.496,
          "final": 3.2805,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.952,
          "final": 0.5384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6797,
          "final": 4.6797,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3398,
          "final": 1.3398,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 63,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.435064935064935,
        "WHIP": 1.4610389610389611,
        "K9": 5.961038961038962,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714288,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1214491594884046,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 619.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.437,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0222,
        "offense_index": 1.0256,
        "defense_index": 0.8902,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1108
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5299,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3507,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4851,
        "offense_index": 1.0816,
        "defense_index": 0.9968,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1036
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2144,
        "offense_edge": 0.0256,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0816,
        "defense_strength": -0.1098,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0032,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9849,
        "run_prevention": 1.0348,
        "strikeout": 0.987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 434.0,
            "k_percent": 16.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.334,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9829,
            "whiff_percent": 20.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3602,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4911,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.58329722592109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.382968074179,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.58329722592109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2149.382968074179,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5833,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.383,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3832,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0326,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9369,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 1.0683,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_id": 3107919,
            "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 110,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 110,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 370,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 92,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.4861,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 75,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 108.1,
              "ip_rank": 100,
              "h_value": 107.0,
              "h_rank": 89,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 75,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 156,
              "k_value": 74.0,
              "k_rank": 155,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.147692,
              "k_per_9_rank": 41,
              "whip_value": 1.2553,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.48,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0683,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9369,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_CHW@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_CIN@CHC

away

Andrew Abbott

True

5.0

3.0

-6

8/8

1/2

2/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.149082568807339,
      "WHIP": 1.403669724770642,
      "IP": 145.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.383,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.345,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9631,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 1.0307,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 55,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 935.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5542,
            "WHIP": 1.3916,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88554,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05422
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 114.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 630.0,
            "Pitches": 2502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4815,
            "R": 2.6296,
            "H": 5.037,
            "BB": 2.5185,
            "SO": 4.2222,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.3333,
            "Pitches": 92.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1491,
            "WHIP": 1.4037,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46101,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93578,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7844,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12385
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.991,
        "predicted_H": 5.313,
        "predicted_BB": 2.658,
        "predicted_SO": 4.388,
        "predicted_HR": 0.41,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7978,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4207
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.991,
          "final": 2.9947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.313,
          "final": 6.4308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.658,
          "final": 1.9683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.388,
          "final": 3.3946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.41,
          "final": 0.2394,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7978,
          "final": 4.7978,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4207,
          "final": 1.4207,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.55421686746988,
        "WHIP": 1.3915662650602412,
        "K9": 7.156626506024097,
        "HR9": 0.4879518072289157,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0206169344844929,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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            },
            {
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 558.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": -98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7259,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1333,
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        "offense_index": 0.9245,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1463
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2074,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3407,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0755,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9802,
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        "strikeout": 0.9787
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.373,
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            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
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            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1425
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
                "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1425,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0178,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.345,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9631,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_id": 4414528,
            "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 55,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 55,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 228,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 4.149,
              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 94,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 21,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 145.1,
              "ip_rank": 30,
              "h_value": 136.0,
              "h_rank": 25,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 3,
              "k_value": 114.0,
              "k_rank": 68,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0596333,
              "k_per_9_rank": 61,
              "whip_value": 1.4036,
              "whip_rank": 48.0,
              "war_value": 2.27,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0307,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_CIN@CHC

home

Kevin Gausman

True

5.2

5.0

-2

3/6

3/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.568,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0191,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9976,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 123,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.2558,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04651,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10465
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 942.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.1,
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            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3916,
            "WHIP": 1.3916,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48795,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04819,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34337,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 633.0,
            "Pitches": 2509.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7037,
            "R": 2.9259,
            "H": 5.5185,
            "BB": 1.5185,
            "SO": 5.5185,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.4444,
            "Pitches": 92.9259
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3703,
            "WHIP": 1.2639,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48559,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99113,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99113,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11973
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.624,
        "predicted_H": 5.816,
        "predicted_BB": 1.613,
        "predicted_SO": 5.425,
        "predicted_HR": 0.59,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1672,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3111
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.624,
          "final": 2.3644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.816,
          "final": 4.6446,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.613,
          "final": 2.19,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.425,
          "final": 4.8322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.59,
          "final": 1.1766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1672,
          "final": 4.1672,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3111,
          "final": 1.3111,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.3915662650602405,
        "WHIP": 1.391566265060241,
        "K9": 9.108433734939759,
        "HR9": 0.6506024096385542,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0023187417134083,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592332",
      "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.563,
        "runs_scored": 703.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 117.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2074,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3407,
        "offense_index": 1.1647,
        "defense_index": 1.03,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1252
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 558.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": -98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7259,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1333,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8593,
        "offense_index": 0.9245,
        "defense_index": 0.9201,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1463
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2715,
        "offense_edge": 0.1647,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0755,
        "defense_strength": 0.03,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0799,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0148,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0142
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592332",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592332",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 601.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3473,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3527,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1288,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3232,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0416
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592332",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.11256087645637,
              "release_spin_rate": 1999.5502813601959,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.11256087645637,
                "release_spin_rate": 1999.5502813601959,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1126,
              "release_spin_rate": 1999.5503,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0416,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2973,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1671,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0191,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9976,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592332",
            "espn_id": 32667,
            "player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 123,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 123,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 228,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 22,
              "era_value": 4.3702,
              "era_rank": 47.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 75,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
              "ip_rank": 17,
              "h_value": 149.0,
              "h_rank": 10,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 10,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 68,
              "k_value": 149.0,
              "k_rank": 23,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.920177,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.2638,
              "whip_rank": 38.0,
              "war_value": 1.36,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0191,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_CIN@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_COL@ATL

away

Zach Agnos

True

4.1

2.2

-5

-4

6/2

0/1

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.684210526315789,
      "WHIP": 1.4342105263157894,
      "IP": 76.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5576,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0474,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9386,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0693,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.344,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 470,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.245,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.753,
        "prior_weight": 0.247
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688642",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 42.0,
            "Pitches": 168.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.4,
            "Pitches": 33.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4839,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87097,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87097,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 294.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.7,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 8.0,
            "Pitches": 29.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7458,
            "WHIP": 1.0678,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30508,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91525,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15254,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66102,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05085
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.0,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 335.0,
            "Pitches": 1240.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 1.4118,
            "R": 1.5294,
            "H": 2.4412,
            "BB": 0.7647,
            "SO": 1.5,
            "HR": 0.2647,
            "BF": 9.8529,
            "Pitches": 36.4706
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6842,
            "WHIP": 1.4342,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09211,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34211,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.753,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
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        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8706,
          "final": 3.8706,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1902,
          "final": 1.1902,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.2,
        "ER": 6,
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        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 13,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8774481010950447,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.753,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688642",
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      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.3852,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 781.0,
        "run_differential": -140.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.037,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7481,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7852,
        "offense_index": 1.063,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5926,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 516.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6741,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8222,
        "offense_index": 1.0465,
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        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2186
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5489,
        "offense_edge": 0.063,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0465,
        "defense_strength": -0.2279,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9693,
        "run_prevention": 1.0577,
        "strikeout": 0.9798
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688642",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688642",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 311.0,
            "k_percent": 15.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
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            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6963,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2416,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
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            "woba": 0.3155,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7109,
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.0857,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0231
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688642",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 30,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 30,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.26854448691294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8061856503546,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 30,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.26854448691294,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.8061856503546,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8062,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0231,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1651,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5576,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0474,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9386,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "688642",
            "espn_id": 5207459,
            "player_name": "Zach Agnos",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 470,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 470,
              "gp_value": 34.0,
              "gp_rank": 186,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 266,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 5.6842,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 512,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 308,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 84,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 76.0,
              "ip_rank": 155,
              "h_value": 83.0,
              "h_rank": 128,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 101,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 164,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 189,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 263,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0394735,
              "k_per_9_rank": 45,
              "whip_value": 1.4342,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.01,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0693,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9386,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_COL@ATL

home

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

1/5

2/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.121387283236994,
      "WHIP": 1.2138728323699421,
      "IP": 115.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.048,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2042,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0174,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9551,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 0.9743,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 51,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 115.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.121,
      "season_WHIP": 1.214,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 1.16,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 205.0,
            "Pitches": 780.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6127,
            "WHIP": 1.4155,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40141,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88732,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52817,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61268,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 115.1,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 85.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 475.0,
            "Pitches": 1818.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.76,
            "H": 3.68,
            "BB": 1.92,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.48,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 72.72
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1214,
            "WHIP": 1.2139,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41618,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73699,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10405
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.652,
        "predicted_H": 4.087,
        "predicted_BB": 2.231,
        "predicted_SO": 3.462,
        "predicted_HR": 0.464,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9982,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2742
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.652,
          "final": 0.9574,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.087,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.2689,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9982,
          "final": 2.9982,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2742,
          "final": 1.2742,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 19,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 5.514084507042254,
        "HR9": 1.1408450704225352,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9152917605493156,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
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          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
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          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "player_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "527048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
                "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1924,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9371,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2611,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8653,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2042,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0174,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9551,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 0.9743,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.03,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "527048",
            "espn_id": 31098,
            "player_name": "Martin Perez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 51,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 51,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 84,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 118,
              "era_value": 3.1213,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 52,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 115.1,
              "ip_rank": 93,
              "h_value": 92.0,
              "h_rank": 114,
              "er_value": 40.0,
              "er_rank": 136,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 122,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 36,
              "k_value": 85.0,
              "k_rank": 124,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.632948,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.2138,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0174,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0174,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9743,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9551,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_COL@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_HOU@NYM

away

Bennett Sousa

True

4.0

0.2

-10

-4

6/1

5/2

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.785714285714286,
      "WHIP": 1.6607142857142856,
      "IP": 18.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 0.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 0.933,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0879,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9925,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0207,
      "walk_factor": 1.0198,
      "homer_factor": 1.0031,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.4,
      "woba": 0.37,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.6,
      "whiff_percent": 31.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 724,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.744,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4282,
        "prior_weight": 0.5718
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656986",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.2,
            "Pitches": 16.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 13.5,
            "WHIP": 2.5714,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.5,
            "H_per_IP": 2.14286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 48.0,
            "Pitches": 161.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.1,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.8,
            "Pitches": 16.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.6429,
            "WHIP": 2.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "H_per_IP": 1.92857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 85.0,
            "Pitches": 308.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5714,
            "R": 0.6667,
            "H": 1.0476,
            "BB": 0.4286,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0952,
            "BF": 4.0476,
            "Pitches": 14.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7857,
            "WHIP": 1.6607,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.146,
        "predicted_H": 3.693,
        "predicted_BB": 1.041,
        "predicted_SO": 2.805,
        "predicted_HR": 0.339,
        "predicted_ERA": 7.1125,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7436
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5916,
      "form_weight": 0.4084,
      "form_reliability": 0.4282,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.744,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4282,
        "prior_weight": 0.5718
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.146,
          "final": 3.8344,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.693,
          "final": 5.0578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.041,
          "final": 3.3831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.805,
          "final": 3.5119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.339,
          "final": 1.3216,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 7.1125,
          "final": 7.1125,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7436,
          "final": 1.7436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 9.642857142857144,
        "WHIP": 2.2500000000000004,
        "K9": 11.571428571428573,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714288,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1872029209314447,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.744,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4282,
          "prior_weight": 0.5718
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656986",
      "player_name": "Bennett Sousa",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5037,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 658.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3111,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8741,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 0.9164,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0352
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4444,
        "runs_scored": 553.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0963,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4963,
        "offense_index": 0.9171,
        "defense_index": 0.9934,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1315
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0963,
        "offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0829,
        "defense_strength": -0.0836,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0066,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0047,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.0095
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656986",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656986",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 67.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.4,
            "woba": 0.37,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0107,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.7884,
            "whiff_percent": 31.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1415,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3189,
            "regression_edge": 2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8857,
            "bb_edge": -0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1045
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656986",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 21,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 21,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.98992847295114,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.8008927381366,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 21,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.98992847295114,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.8008927381366,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9899,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.8009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1045,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7463,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0879,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9925,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0207,
          "walk_factor": 1.0198,
          "homer_factor": 1.0031,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.079,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656986",
            "espn_id": 41776,
            "player_name": "Bennett Sousa",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 724,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 724,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 341,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 349,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 6.2678,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 392,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 221,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 141,
              "ip_value": 18.2,
              "ip_rank": 509,
              "h_value": 24.0,
              "h_rank": 450,
              "er_value": 13.0,
              "er_rank": 431,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 494,
              "bb_value": 10.0,
              "bb_rank": 460,
              "k_value": 21.0,
              "k_rank": 461,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.125,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.8214,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0014,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_HOU@NYM

home

Nolan McLean

True

5.2

7.0

-1

3/2

2/3

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2085201793721976,
      "WHIP": 1.1434977578475336,
      "IP": 148.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.718,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.265,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9775,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0266,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 0.966,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 49,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7614,
            "WHIP": 1.2614,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51136,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88636,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 947.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 94.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9719,
            "WHIP": 1.1798,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2191,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77528,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40449,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04494,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08427
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 148.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 168.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 618.0,
            "Pitches": 2451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0385,
            "R": 2.4615,
            "H": 4.3077,
            "BB": 2.2308,
            "SO": 6.4615,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 23.7692,
            "Pitches": 94.2692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2085,
            "WHIP": 1.1435,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3565,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75336,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39013,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13004,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1009
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.888,
        "predicted_H": 4.678,
        "predicted_BB": 2.573,
        "predicted_SO": 5.787,
        "predicted_HR": 0.687,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8843,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.231
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.888,
          "final": 1.5167,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.678,
          "final": 3.9763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.573,
          "final": 2.3334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.787,
          "final": 6.7124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.687,
          "final": 1.236,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8843,
          "final": 2.8843,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.231,
          "final": 1.231,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.9719101123595508,
        "WHIP": 1.1797752808988764,
        "K9": 9.404494382022472,
        "HR9": 0.7584269662921349,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7248126499305467,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4444,
        "runs_scored": 553.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0963,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4963,
        "offense_index": 0.9171,
        "defense_index": 0.9934,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1315
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5037,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 658.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3111,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8741,
        "offense_index": 1.0216,
        "defense_index": 0.9164,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0352
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0963,
        "offense_edge": -0.0829,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0216,
        "defense_strength": -0.0066,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0836,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9951,
        "run_prevention": 1.0089,
        "strikeout": 0.9954
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 589.0,
            "k_percent": 27.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4815,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6214,
            "whiff_percent": 24.7,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3722,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2961,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0663
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
                "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0401,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.7306,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0663,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4737,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.265,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9775,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0266,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 0.966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_id": 4433874,
            "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 49,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 49,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 9,
              "era_value": 3.2085,
              "era_rank": 15.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 31,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 148.2,
              "ip_rank": 24,
              "h_value": 112.0,
              "h_rank": 81,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 77,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 76,
              "bb_value": 58.0,
              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 168.0,
              "k_rank": 12,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.1704035,
              "k_per_9_rank": 13,
              "whip_value": 1.1434,
              "whip_rank": 21.0,
              "war_value": 2.48,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9775,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9775,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0266,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_HOU@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_KC@CLE

away

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.0

3.1

-5

-1

4/3

4/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9314285714285715,
      "WHIP": 1.0285714285714285,
      "IP": 58.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 50,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.083,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0143,
      "sample_weight": 0.844,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9988,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9848,
      "walk_factor": 0.9662,
      "homer_factor": 0.9849,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.261,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 167,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 58.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.931,
      "season_WHIP": 1.029,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.701,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7006,
        "prior_weight": 0.2994
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 50,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 189.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 11.2,
            "Pitches": 37.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.075,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.675,
            "H_per_IP": 0.975,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 74.0,
            "Pitches": 247.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.9,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.7,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.4,
            "Pitches": 24.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.2222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94444,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27778,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 50,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 853.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.38,
            "R": 0.46,
            "H": 0.86,
            "BB": 0.34,
            "SO": 0.86,
            "HR": 0.08,
            "BF": 4.7,
            "Pitches": 17.06
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9314,
            "WHIP": 1.0286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06857
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.662,
        "predicted_H": 2.926,
        "predicted_BB": 1.058,
        "predicted_SO": 2.299,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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        {
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            {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4485,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5735,
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          "win_pct": 0.9,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_allowed": 550.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0519,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 25.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0057
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.9074,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
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            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3168,
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            "regression_edge": -1.3143,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0016
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 28,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 28,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.82679331429227,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103408384525,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 28,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.82679331429227,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103408384525,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8268,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5103,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0016,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.0116,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0143,
          "sample_weight": 0.844,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9988,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9848,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663738",
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            "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 167,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 167,
              "gp_value": 50.0,
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              "gs_rank": 225,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 2.9314,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 132,
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 44,
              "ip_value": 58.1,
              "ip_rank": 217,
              "h_value": 43.0,
              "h_rank": 274,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 308,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 355,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 326,
              "k_value": 43.0,
              "k_rank": 312,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.6342854,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.0285,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.0,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9715,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9873,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_KC@CLE

home

Foster Griffin

True

5.2

5.0

-2

4/4

1/1

9/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.125,
      "IP": 149.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.744,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0908,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0077,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9883,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0392,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 16,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 149.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.194,
      "season_WHIP": 1.125,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
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            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3289,
            "WHIP": 1.5789,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86842,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23684
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2586,
            "WHIP": 1.2241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25862,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12069
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 149.1,
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            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 611.0,
            "Pitches": 2431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.0385,
            "R": 2.3077,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4615,
            "SO": 5.1923,
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            "BF": 23.5,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1942,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35491,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87054,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25446,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90402,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15402
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.544,
        "predicted_H": 5.597,
        "predicted_BB": 1.772,
        "predicted_SO": 4.678,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.2287,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3608
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.544,
          "final": 2.3165,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.2287,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3608,
          "final": 1.3608,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 21,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.2586206896551726,
        "WHIP": 1.2241379310344827,
        "K9": 7.137931034482759,
        "HR9": 1.0862068965517242,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8706766561296944,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "runs_scored": 543.0,
        "runs_allowed": 550.0,
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      "opponent": {
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        "quality_edge": 0.0762,
        "offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0435,
        "defense_strength": 0.0963,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0782,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0077,
        "run_prevention": 0.9796,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 585.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9751,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1165,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0762,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0482,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2227
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.8782595906004,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.9414767886506,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.8782595906004,
                "release_spin_rate": 2154.9414767886506,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8783,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.9415,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2227,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.591,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0908,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0077,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9883,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0392,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_id": 33773,
            "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 16,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 16,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 22,
              "era_value": 3.1941,
              "era_rank": 14.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 149.1,
              "ip_rank": 20,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 36,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 77,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 15,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 79,
              "k_value": 135.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.136161,
              "k_per_9_rank": 49,
              "whip_value": 1.125,
              "whip_rank": 19.0,
              "war_value": 3.46,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0392,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9883,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_KC@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_LAD@DET

away

Blake Snell

True

5.1

5.0

-1

3/3

8/10

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5714285714285716,
      "WHIP": 1.0476190476190477,
      "IP": 21.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5696,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9516,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.05,
      "walk_factor": 1.0099,
      "homer_factor": 0.8689,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.218,
      "xwoba": 0.236,
      "barrel_percent": 0.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 9.8,
      "whiff_percent": 36.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 248,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 86.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.0476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 86.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.0476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 87.0,
            "Pitches": 345.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 3.25,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.75,
            "Pitches": 86.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.0476,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.157,
        "predicted_H": 4.355,
        "predicted_BB": 2.111,
        "predicted_SO": 5.721,
        "predicted_HR": 0.433,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6404,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2125
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.157,
          "final": 2.0652,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.355,
          "final": 3.5627,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.111,
          "final": 2.6308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.721,
          "final": 7.0536,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.433,
          "final": 0.7645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6404,
          "final": 3.6404,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2125,
          "final": 1.2125,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 13,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 26,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.5714285714285716,
        "WHIP": 1.0476190476190477,
        "K9": 11.142857142857142,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8553514775614319,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 514.0,
        "run_differential": 149.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1037,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9111,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8074,
        "offense_index": 1.0969,
        "defense_index": 1.1759,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2906
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4627,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 524.0,
        "run_differential": 69.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5149,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9104,
        "offense_index": 0.9884,
        "defense_index": 1.1449,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0735
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3641,
        "offense_edge": 0.0969,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0116,
        "defense_strength": 0.1759,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1449,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0203,
        "run_prevention": 0.9623,
        "strikeout": 1.0119
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 63.0,
            "k_percent": 29.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.218,
            "xwoba": 0.236,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 71.195,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 90.3039,
            "whiff_percent": 36.8,
            "swing_percent": 52.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.8751,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0296,
            "regression_edge": -0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 1.5889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.6571,
            "bb_edge": -0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0057
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.75331649831651,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219095719097,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.75331649831651,
                "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219095719097,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7533,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0057,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.041,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5696,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9516,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.05,
          "walk_factor": 1.0099,
          "homer_factor": 0.8689,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_id": 33748,
            "player_name": "Blake Snell",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 248,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 248,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 638,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 225,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 2.5714,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 296,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 406,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 21.0,
              "ip_rank": 479,
              "h_value": 13.0,
              "h_rank": 571,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 604,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 721,
              "bb_value": 9.0,
              "bb_rank": 485,
              "k_value": 26.0,
              "k_rank": 428,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.142858,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.0476,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.51,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9782,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9782,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.941,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0225,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_LAD@DET

home

Keider Montero

True

6.0

5.1

-2

-1

5/4

2/1

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.2992518703241895,
      "WHIP": 0.9950124688279303,
      "IP": 133.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.683,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0789,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9933,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9311,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 0.983,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.265,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 27,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 133.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.299,
      "season_WHIP": 0.995,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 82.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 180.0,
            "Pitches": 664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 66.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11364
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 53.0,
            "H": 103.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 89.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 535.0,
            "Pitches": 1929.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8148,
            "R": 1.963,
            "H": 3.8148,
            "BB": 1.1111,
            "SO": 3.2963,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 19.8148,
            "Pitches": 71.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2993,
            "WHIP": 0.995,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36658,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77057,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66584,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10474
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.147,
        "predicted_H": 4.271,
        "predicted_BB": 1.456,
        "predicted_SO": 3.188,
        "predicted_HR": 0.672,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7077,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0987
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.147,
          "final": 2.0858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.271,
          "final": 4.5743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.456,
          "final": 1.6823,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.188,
          "final": 4.7738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.672,
          "final": 0.8084,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7077,
          "final": 3.7077,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0987,
          "final": 1.0987,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.2727272727272734,
        "WHIP": 1.0000000000000002,
        "K9": 6.136363636363638,
        "HR9": 1.022727272727273,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8666601984494436,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "player_name": "Keider Montero",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4627,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 524.0,
        "run_differential": 69.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5149,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9104,
        "offense_index": 0.9884,
        "defense_index": 1.1449,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0735
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.6,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 514.0,
        "run_differential": 149.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1037,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9111,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8074,
        "offense_index": 1.0969,
        "defense_index": 1.1759,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2906
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3641,
        "offense_edge": -0.0116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0969,
        "defense_strength": 0.1449,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1759,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9859,
        "run_prevention": 1.0192,
        "strikeout": 0.9813
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672456",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672456",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 508.0,
            "k_percent": 16.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.265,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9117,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6739,
            "whiff_percent": 18.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4995,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5004,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0091
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672456",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01803682427683,
              "release_spin_rate": 2353.3782313595193,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01803682427683,
                "release_spin_rate": 2353.3782313595193,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.018,
              "release_spin_rate": 2353.3782,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0091,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0649,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0789,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9933,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9311,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 0.983,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "672456",
            "espn_id": 5182933,
            "player_name": "Keider Montero",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 27,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 27,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 228,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 84,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.2992,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 31,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 132,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 133.2,
              "ip_rank": 55,
              "h_value": 103.0,
              "h_rank": 97,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 93,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 144,
              "k_value": 89.0,
              "k_rank": 110,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.992519,
              "k_per_9_rank": 53,
              "whip_value": 0.995,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9933,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9933,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.983,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9311,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_LAD@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_MIA@WAS

away

Sandy Alcantara

True

6.1

6.0

-1

5/8

1/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.381125226860254,
      "WHIP": 1.1760435571687842,
      "IP": 183.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.56,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1346,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9546,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9388,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 512.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 26.4,
            "Pitches": 102.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.3636,
            "WHIP": 1.0303,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15152,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30303,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0303
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 68.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 271.0,
            "Pitches": 1020.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 27.1,
            "Pitches": 102.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9853,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22059,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77941,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 183.2,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 167.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 757.0,
            "Pitches": 2769.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.4643,
            "R": 2.6429,
            "H": 5.9643,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.8929,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 27.0357,
            "Pitches": 98.8929
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3811,
            "WHIP": 1.176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26679,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74592,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.098
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.739,
        "predicted_H": 5.309,
        "predicted_BB": 1.927,
        "predicted_SO": 4.996,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3651,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0936
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.739,
          "final": 2.2611,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.309,
          "final": 5.1811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.927,
          "final": 1.5432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.996,
          "final": 4.5836,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.7105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3651,
          "final": 2.3651,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0936,
          "final": 1.0936,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 68.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 1.9852941176470589,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 7.014705882352941,
        "HR9": 0.7941176470588235,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7218239685029195,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5037,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0889,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3259,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.237,
        "offense_index": 0.9685,
        "defense_index": 1.0542,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0209
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4672,
        "runs_scored": 713.0,
        "runs_allowed": 694.0,
        "run_differential": 19.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1387,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2044,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0657,
        "offense_index": 1.1652,
        "defense_index": 0.8817,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0458
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0249,
        "offense_edge": -0.0315,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1652,
        "defense_strength": 0.0542,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1183,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0198,
        "strikeout": 0.9875
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 724.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4686,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5124,
            "whiff_percent": 21.2,
            "swing_percent": 50.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3876,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3189,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1488
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.0965,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1488,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0628,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1346,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9886,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9546,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9388,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_id": 35241,
            "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 20,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 20,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 219,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 1,
              "qs_value": 21.0,
              "qs_rank": 1,
              "era_value": 3.3811,
              "era_rank": 22.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 8,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 41,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 183.2,
              "ip_rank": 1,
              "h_value": 167.0,
              "h_rank": 3,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 19,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 30,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 34,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7132487,
              "k_per_9_rank": 918,
              "whip_value": 1.176,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 3.35,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9388,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9546,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_MIA@WAS

home

Cade Cavalli

True

6.0

4.0

-6

-2

6/0

1/3

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2085201793721976,
      "WHIP": 1.2107623318385652,
      "IP": 148.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.31,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1516,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.034,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0239,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 37,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676917",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9688,
            "WHIP": 0.9062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 90.1
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      },
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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      "opponent": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "676917",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0239,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_MIA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_PHI@LAA

away

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.0

7.0

-1

1/2

3/1

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6198019801980195,
      "WHIP": 1.2237623762376237,
      "IP": 168.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.235,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4685,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9602,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0751,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0035,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 32.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 1,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1236,
            "WHIP": 1.3146,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23596,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97753,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24719,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06742
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 957.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.7,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5486,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 168.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 168.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 194.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 701.0,
            "Pitches": 2582.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8148,
            "R": 2.037,
            "H": 6.2222,
            "BB": 1.4074,
            "SO": 7.1852,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 25.963,
            "Pitches": 95.6296
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6198,
            "WHIP": 1.2238,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29109,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99802,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22574,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15248,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08317
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.018,
        "predicted_H": 6.244,
        "predicted_BB": 1.877,
        "predicted_SO": 6.99,
        "predicted_HR": 0.562,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9987,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.341
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.018,
          "final": 1.5945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.244,
          "final": 4.0625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.877,
          "final": 2.3442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.99,
          "final": 4.9142,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.562,
          "final": 0.3282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9987,
          "final": 2.9987,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.341,
          "final": 1.341,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 67,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.5485714285714285,
        "WHIP": 1.44,
        "K9": 10.337142857142856,
        "HR9": 0.9257142857142857,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.908692665981911,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4286,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5556,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1852,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5407,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3556,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.0284,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.175
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.3852,
        "runs_scored": 551.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5704,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0815,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6519,
        "offense_index": 0.9112,
        "defense_index": 0.9629,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2376
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4126,
        "offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0888,
        "defense_strength": 0.0284,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0371,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0209,
        "run_prevention": 0.9623,
        "strikeout": 1.0195
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 670.0,
            "k_percent": 27.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1887,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4471,
            "whiff_percent": 32.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3503,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9282,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0302
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
              "release_spin_rate": 2081.2610513716268,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.39508390967275,
                "release_spin_rate": 2081.2610513716268,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3951,
              "release_spin_rate": 2081.2611,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0302,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2157,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4685,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9602,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0751,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.0035,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_id": 42359,
            "player_name": "Cristopher Sanchez",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 1,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 1,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 228,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 3,
              "era_value": 2.6198,
              "era_rank": 8.0,
              "w_value": 16.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 168.1,
              "ip_rank": 3,
              "h_value": 168.0,
              "h_rank": 2,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 93,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 79,
              "k_value": 194.0,
              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.372277,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.2237,
              "whip_rank": 32.0,
              "war_value": 7.01,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9602,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9602,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0035,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0751,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_PHI@LAA

home

Ryan Johnson

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-2

3/2

3/5

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.747524752475248,
      "WHIP": 1.425742574257426,
      "IP": 67.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.795,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5594,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0476,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9603,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 1.0981,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.354,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 783,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1558,
            "WHIP": 1.2468,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62338,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19481
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85417,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45833,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22917
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 67.1,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 295.0,
            "Pitches": 1175.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6875,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0625,
            "BB": 1.9375,
            "SO": 3.125,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 18.4375,
            "Pitches": 73.4375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7475,
            "WHIP": 1.4257,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63861,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96535,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4604,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74257,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23762
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.259,
        "predicted_H": 4.076,
        "predicted_BB": 2.248,
        "predicted_SO": 3.584,
        "predicted_HR": 0.957,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2281,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3148
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.259,
          "final": 2.5929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.076,
          "final": 3.5912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.248,
          "final": 2.5868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.584,
          "final": 3.7714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.957,
          "final": 0.5258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2281,
          "final": 4.2281,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3148,
          "final": 1.3148,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.3125,
        "K9": 6.5625,
        "HR9": 2.0625,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0125408802676255,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.3852,
        "runs_scored": 551.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": -77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5704,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0815,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6519,
        "offense_index": 0.9112,
        "defense_index": 0.9629,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2376
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5556,
        "runs_scored": 613.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1852,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5407,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3556,
        "offense_index": 1.0137,
        "defense_index": 1.0284,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.175
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4126,
        "offense_edge": -0.0888,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0137,
        "defense_strength": -0.0371,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0284,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0265,
        "strikeout": 0.9865
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 271.0,
            "k_percent": 16.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.5,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.354,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9913,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7307,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4861,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1558
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.07415991966134,
                "release_spin_rate": 2270.636552773629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.6366,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1558,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1126,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5594,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0476,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9603,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
          "homer_factor": 1.0981,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_id": 5007859,
            "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 783,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 783,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 423,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 145,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 5.7475,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 231,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 67.1,
              "ip_rank": 178,
              "h_value": 65.0,
              "h_rank": 164,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 124,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 69,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 137,
              "k_value": 50.0,
              "k_rank": 269,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.6831684,
              "k_per_9_rank": 40,
              "whip_value": 1.4257,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0476,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0476,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0981,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9603,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_PHI@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_PIT@STL

away

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

2.1

-8

-1

1/1

2/0

3/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0821917808219177,
      "WHIP": 1.0273972602739727,
      "IP": 73.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 44,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2189,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9814,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0403,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.004,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 200,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 73.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.082,
      "season_WHIP": 1.027,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.643,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7455,
        "prior_weight": 0.2545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 44,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 43.0,
            "Pitches": 181.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 8.6,
            "Pitches": 36.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4839,
            "WHIP": 1.3548,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 319.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.9,
            "R": 0.9,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 7.9,
            "Pitches": 31.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1897,
            "WHIP": 1.1897,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46552,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46552,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25862
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 44,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 73.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 294.0,
            "Pitches": 1186.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5682,
            "R": 0.6136,
            "H": 1.0682,
            "BB": 0.6364,
            "SO": 1.7045,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 6.6818,
            "Pitches": 26.9545
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0822,
            "WHIP": 1.0274,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34247,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64384,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38356,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0274,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15068
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.238,
        "predicted_H": 2.099,
        "predicted_BB": 1.535,
        "predicted_SO": 2.503,
        "predicted_HR": 0.554,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8656,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2602
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4575,
      "form_weight": 0.5425,
      "form_reliability": 0.7455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.643,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7455,
        "prior_weight": 0.2545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.238,
          "final": 2.0442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.099,
          "final": 1.5962,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.535,
          "final": 1.7477,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.503,
          "final": 2.7304,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.554,
          "final": 0.7581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8656,
          "final": 3.8656,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2602,
          "final": 1.2602,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.189655172413794,
        "WHIP": 1.1896551724137931,
        "K9": 7.448275862068966,
        "HR9": 2.327586206896552,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9839449576974413,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.643,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7455,
          "prior_weight": 0.2545
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4779,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.8671,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0048
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 43,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 43,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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            "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
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            "espn_rank": 200,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
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              "whip_value": 1.1095,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_SO": 3,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
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      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_PIT@STL

home

Kyle Leahy

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-2

5/4

1/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 126.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.053,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4211,
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      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0358,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.7,
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      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 48.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 33,
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      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 126.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.135,
      "season_WHIP": 1.298,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 9.54,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": true,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.691690932694228,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "681517",
      "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
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      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
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        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0735,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4412,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4779,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 637.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1544,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8382,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0348
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0092,
        "offense_edge": -0.0067,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0822,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9931
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 21.7,
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            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.3155,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0198
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.50135049643278,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467068991857,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.50135049643278,
                "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467068991857,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5014,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.5467,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4211,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0358,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9843,
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          "homer_factor": 1.1295,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_id": 5006093,
            "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 33,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 33,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 3.1345,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 126.1,
              "ip_rank": 68,
              "h_value": 127.0,
              "h_rank": 46,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 119,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 122,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 89,
              "k_value": 115.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.192613,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.2981,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1295,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_PIT@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_SD@TB

away

Walker Buehler

True

5.0

4/7

2/0

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.630606860158312,
      "WHIP": 1.353562005277045,
      "IP": 126.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.859,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1416,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.012,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9614,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.0237,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 223,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.1392,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87342,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26582,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 210.0,
            "Pitches": 850.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9586,
            "WHIP": 1.4276,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66207,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78621,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18621
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 126.1,
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            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 538.0,
            "Pitches": 2147.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5385,
            "H": 4.6923,
            "BB": 1.8846,
            "SO": 4.1538,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 20.6923,
            "Pitches": 82.5769
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6306,
            "WHIP": 1.3536,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51451,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9657,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38786,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85488,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11873
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.393,
        "predicted_H": 4.667,
        "predicted_BB": 1.834,
        "predicted_SO": 3.869,
        "predicted_HR": 0.638,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2829,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2929
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.393,
          "final": 2.2287,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.667,
          "final": 4.3881,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.834,
          "final": 1.9034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.869,
          "final": 3.5056,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.638,
          "final": 0.3712,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2829,
          "final": 4.2829,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2929,
          "final": 1.2929,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.958620689655173,
        "WHIP": 1.427586206896552,
        "K9": 7.075862068965518,
        "HR9": 1.6758620689655175,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.179512863026246,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 135,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5333,
        "runs_scored": 573.0,
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        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0889,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1556,
        "offense_index": 0.9503,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0393
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
        "run_differential": 52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5075,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1194,
        "offense_index": 1.0092,
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        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0909,
        "offense_edge": -0.0497,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0092,
        "defense_strength": 0.0748,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9982,
        "run_prevention": 0.9985,
        "strikeout": 0.9965
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 514.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
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            "woba": 0.322,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8257,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.048,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0091
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.69389206083017,
                "release_spin_rate": 2201.5990522722864,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6939,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.5991,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0091,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0647,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1416,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.012,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9614,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.0237,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_id": 39251,
            "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 223,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 223,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.6306,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 52,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 99,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 126.1,
              "ip_rank": 68,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 76,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 30,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 76,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6939316,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.3535,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.65,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9614,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_SD@TB

home

Nick Martinez

True

6.0

8/7

0/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.925507900677201,
      "WHIP": 1.0970654627539504,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.907,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1912,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0162,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9117,
      "walk_factor": 0.89,
      "homer_factor": 0.9791,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.7,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 17.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 421.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7473,
            "WHIP": 1.0879,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02198,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06593,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65934,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1978
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 827.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 82.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2216,
            "WHIP": 1.0057,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35795,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08523,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15341
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2069.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.92,
            "R": 1.92,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 0.88,
            "SO": 3.48,
            "HR": 0.68,
            "BF": 23.72,
            "Pitches": 82.76
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9255,
            "WHIP": 1.0971,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32506,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94808,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14898,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58916,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11512
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.638,
        "predicted_H": 5.833,
        "predicted_BB": 0.816,
        "predicted_SO": 3.968,
        "predicted_HR": 0.975,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9567,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1082
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.638,
          "final": 3.2106,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.833,
          "final": 7.1645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.816,
          "final": 0.4729,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.968,
          "final": 4.4019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.975,
          "final": 0.5651,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9567,
          "final": 3.9567,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1082,
          "final": 1.1082,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.2215909090909087,
        "WHIP": 1.0056818181818181,
        "K9": 4.909090909090908,
        "HR9": 1.3806818181818181,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8610494029948981,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 9,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1111,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.597,
        "runs_scored": 604.0,
        "runs_allowed": 552.0,
        "run_differential": 52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3881,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5075,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1194,
        "offense_index": 1.0092,
        "defense_index": 1.0843,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1302
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5333,
        "runs_scored": 573.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0889,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1556,
        "offense_index": 0.9503,
        "defense_index": 1.0748,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0393
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0909,
        "offense_edge": 0.0092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0497,
        "defense_strength": 0.0843,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0748,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0082,
        "run_prevention": 0.9791,
        "strikeout": 1.0067
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 14.7,
            "bb_percent": 3.7,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7027,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2154,
            "whiff_percent": 17.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0894,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6025,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1571,
            "bb_edge": 1.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1643
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.92210877528385,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.935261117394,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.92210877528385,
                "release_spin_rate": 2192.935261117394,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9221,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.9353,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1643,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1734,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1912,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0162,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9117,
          "walk_factor": 0.89,
          "homer_factor": 0.9791,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_id": 33372,
            "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 17,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 17,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 28,
              "era_value": 2.9255,
              "era_rank": 11.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 8,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 147.2,
              "ip_rank": 26,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 18,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 101,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 53,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 234,
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": 116,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.302483,
              "k_per_9_rank": 120,
              "whip_value": 1.097,
              "whip_rank": 13.0,
              "war_value": 3.45,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.89,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9791,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9117,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_SD@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_SEA@TOR

away

Kade Anderson

True

5.0

4.1

-2

7/3

0/3

7/3

Last 10 before this game (1 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.2352941176470587,
      "IP": 5.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0317,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9973,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.003,
      "walk_factor": 0.9982,
      "homer_factor": 0.9973,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 423,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.35294
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.35294
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.2353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.35294
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.578,
        "predicted_H": 4.903,
        "predicted_BB": 1.875,
        "predicted_SO": 4.756,
        "predicted_HR": 0.923,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5403,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7021,
      "form_weight": 0.2979,
      "form_reliability": 0.1667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1667,
        "prior_weight": 0.8333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.578,
          "final": 2.1722,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.903,
          "final": 6.3752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.875,
          "final": 0.5586,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.756,
          "final": 6.3314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.923,
          "final": 0.275,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5403,
          "final": 4.5403,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3261,
          "final": 1.3261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 5.2,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 5,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
        "WHIP": 1.2352941176470587,
        "K9": 7.941176470588235,
        "HR9": 3.176470588235294,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.007470021209095,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1667,
          "prior_weight": 0.8333
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 527.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4741,
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        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4853,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.065
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0154,
        "offense_edge": -0.1257,
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        "defense_strength": 0.02,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0046,
        "run_prevention": 0.9803,
        "strikeout": 1.0088
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8835,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0902,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0768,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0317,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9973,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.003,
          "walk_factor": 0.9982,
          "homer_factor": 0.9973,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_id": 5198748,
            "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 423,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 423,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": 763,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 290,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 206,
              "era_value": 4.7647,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 512,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 558,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 5.2,
              "ip_rank": 679,
              "h_value": 5.0,
              "h_rank": 696,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 684,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 494,
              "bb_value": 2.0,
              "bb_rank": 693,
              "k_value": 5.0,
              "k_rank": 660,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.941177,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.2352,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0013,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_SEA@TOR

home

José Soriano

True

5.1

7.0

5/5

1/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.2886836027713624,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.551,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0489,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0042,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0386,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 1.0357,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 30.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 32,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.443,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02532,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2994,
            "WHIP": 1.3185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47771,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95541,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36306,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85987,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 65.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 603.0,
            "Pitches": 2417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1154,
            "R": 2.3077,
            "H": 4.6538,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
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            "Pitches": 92.9615
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4296,
            "WHIP": 1.2887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83834,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45035,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99076,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09007
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.307,
        "predicted_H": 5.202,
        "predicted_BB": 2.152,
        "predicted_SO": 4.695,
        "predicted_HR": 0.376,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8523,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3647
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.307,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.202,
          "final": 5.1175,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.152,
          "final": 1.6703,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 5.2407,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.376,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8523,
          "final": 3.8523,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3647,
          "final": 1.3647,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.2993630573248405,
        "WHIP": 1.3184713375796178,
        "K9": 7.738853503184713,
        "HR9": 0.5159235668789809,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9901185076561603,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 136,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4853,
        "runs_scored": 537.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": -58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4265,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9485,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.375,
        "offense_index": 0.8843,
        "defense_index": 1.0206,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.065
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4741,
        "runs_scored": 527.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4741,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9037,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3778,
        "offense_index": 0.8743,
        "defense_index": 1.02,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.9,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0804
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0154,
        "offense_edge": -0.1157,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1257,
        "defense_strength": 0.0206,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.02,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9771,
        "strikeout": 1.0105
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 23.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.909,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3066,
            "whiff_percent": 30.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0919,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2811,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7286,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1549
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.62248350722385,
              "release_spin_rate": 2056.682557815389,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62248350722385,
                "release_spin_rate": 2056.682557815389,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6225,
              "release_spin_rate": 2056.6826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1549,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1067,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0489,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0042,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0386,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 1.0357,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_id": 40973,
            "player_name": "Jose Soriano",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 32,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 32,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.4295,
              "era_rank": 23.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 73,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 144.1,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 62,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 69,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 110,
              "bb_value": 65.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 143.0,
              "k_rank": 27,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.91686,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2886,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 2.88,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0042,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0042,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0357,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0386,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_SEA@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_TEX@MIL

away

Cal Quantrill

True

5.2

6.0

-1

6/4

4/0

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9043824701195216,
      "WHIP": 1.1354581673306772,
      "IP": 83.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.033,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0366,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0031,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9374,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 0.9687,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 19.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 147,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 369.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 73.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.72,
            "WHIP": 0.88,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 724.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 72.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6069,
            "WHIP": 1.0759,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28966,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84828,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 83.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 73.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 347.0,
            "Pitches": 1311.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2222,
            "H": 2.7037,
            "BB": 0.8148,
            "SO": 2.2222,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 12.8519,
            "Pitches": 48.5556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9044,
            "WHIP": 1.1355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32271,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87251,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26295,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71713,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10757
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.16,
        "predicted_H": 3.844,
        "predicted_BB": 1.074,
        "predicted_SO": 3.738,
        "predicted_HR": 0.405,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2356,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0535
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.16,
          "final": 2.3414,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.844,
          "final": 4.7409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.074,
          "final": 2.2912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.738,
          "final": 5.095,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.405,
          "final": 0.2365,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2356,
          "final": 2.2356,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0535,
          "final": 1.0535,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 35,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.6068965517241383,
        "WHIP": 1.0758620689655174,
        "K9": 6.517241379310345,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7936507940607289,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1429,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1429,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4889,
        "runs_scored": 544.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3852,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0296,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4148,
        "offense_index": 0.9004,
        "defense_index": 1.0137,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0568
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6222,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 496.0,
        "run_differential": 178.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3185,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9926,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6741,
        "offense_index": 1.1155,
        "defense_index": 1.2181,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 42.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3359
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3927,
        "offense_edge": -0.0996,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1155,
        "defense_strength": 0.0137,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2181,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9801,
        "run_prevention": 1.0367,
        "strikeout": 0.979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "615698",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 310.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.285,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2284,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4605,
            "whiff_percent": 19.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2551,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4704,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0007
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84263114012379,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.7640647104026,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84263114012379,
                "release_spin_rate": 1952.7640647104026,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8426,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.7641,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0007,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0052,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0366,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0031,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9374,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 0.9687,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "615698",
            "espn_id": 39875,
            "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 147,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 147,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 228,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 166,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 118,
              "era_value": 2.9043,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 94,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 166,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 244,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 339,
              "ip_value": 83.2,
              "ip_rank": 141,
              "h_value": 73.0,
              "h_rank": 152,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 200,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 164,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 234,
              "k_value": 60.0,
              "k_rank": 204,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.4541836,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.1354,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9687,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9374,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 117,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260829

20260829_TEX@MIL

home

Shane Drohan

True

5.1

5.0

-1

4/6

2/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8449367088607596,
      "WHIP": 1.2911392405063291,
      "IP": 105.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.244,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2131,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9819,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0186,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 0.9988,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 196,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "report_date": "20260829",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 387.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 77.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.6286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 815.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 81.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.35,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.975,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 105.1,
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            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
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            "BF": 444.0,
            "Pitches": 1662.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
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            "R": 1.9231,
            "H": 3.8462,
            "BB": 1.3846,
            "SO": 4.0,
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            "Pitches": 63.9231
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8449,
            "WHIP": 1.2911,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42722,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08544
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.098,
        "predicted_SO": 4.661,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4444
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.483,
          "final": 1.8629,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.919,
          "final": 4.5347,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.098,
          "final": 2.057,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.661,
          "final": 5.2209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.554,
          "final": 0.7405,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6,
          "final": 4.6,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4444,
          "final": 1.4444,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.55625,
        "WHIP": 1.35,
        "K9": 8.775,
        "HR9": 0.8437500000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0198065052676253,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6222,
        "runs_scored": 674.0,
        "runs_allowed": 496.0,
        "run_differential": 178.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3185,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9926,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6741,
        "offense_index": 1.1155,
        "defense_index": 1.2181,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 42.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3359
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4889,
        "runs_scored": 544.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": -52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3852,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0296,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4148,
        "offense_index": 0.9004,
        "defense_index": 1.0137,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0568
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3927,
        "offense_edge": 0.1155,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0996,
        "defense_strength": 0.2181,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0137,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0262,
        "run_prevention": 0.9426,
        "strikeout": 1.0197
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 417.0,
            "k_percent": 23.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5543,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6932,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 121.5,
            "k_percent": 22.05,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3155,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.15,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9134,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1894,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2368,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0333
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.45103485149461,
              "release_spin_rate": 2555.806723547709,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.45103485149461,
                "release_spin_rate": 2555.806723547709,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.451,
              "release_spin_rate": 2555.8067,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0333,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2381,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2131,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9819,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0186,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 0.9988,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675660",
            "espn_id": 4315203,
            "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 196,
            "espn_total_ranked": 835,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 196,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 252,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 125,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 107,
              "era_value": 3.8449,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 94,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 128,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 132,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 222,
              "ip_value": 105.1,
              "ip_rank": 103,
              "h_value": 100.0,
              "h_rank": 100,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 113,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 164,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 99,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 82,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.886076,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2911,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.82,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9819,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9819,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0186,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260829_TEX@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}