Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260827 · dates 20260827 · generated 2026-08-28T06:00:16.799944+00:00

5-2

Winner picks · 71.4%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

8/14

Starter ER within ±1

12/14

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260827	7	7	0	5	2	7	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	7	applied games: 7formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	7	available games: 7
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	7	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	7	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	7	configured window: 10last 10 games: 7observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	7	settled games: 7metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3468.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	3	54.0%	100.0%	-46.0%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	3	56.0%	66.7%	-10.6%	underconfident
0.70-0.80	1	72.8%	0.0%	72.8%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	7	2.8904	3.9625	4.5782	71.4%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	7	2.8571	4.0	4.5714	42.9%	-0.0333	-0.0068
enhanced_prediction	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218
capped_target	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218
simulation_result	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218
published_final	7	2.9286	3.5714	5.0	71.4%	0.0382	0.4218

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 7,
  "team_run_mae": 2.9286,
  "total_run_mae": 3.5714,
  "margin_mae": 5.0,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.7143,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0382,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4218
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	3.0	2
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	2
variance_applied	0.1247	2
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	2
capped_target	0.0	2
simulation_result	0.0	2

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1247,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	5
variance_applied	0.1722	5
enhanced_prediction	0.0	5
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	5
capped_target	0.0	5
simulation_result	0.0	5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.1722,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=7

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	3	3	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	3	2	1	0.6667
[0.600, 1.010)	1	0	1	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=7

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260827	7	0.5755	7.1429	0.7143

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260827",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5755,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.1429,
      "accuracy": 0.7143
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=7

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v10	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	7	5	2	0.7143

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.7143
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260827_ARI@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSF

Published scoreARI 3 - 4 SF

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.4% · weight 50.0% · n=321

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5724

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9774163786983063-4.8667055936419255	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.067342,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533671,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533671,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466329
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067342,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.53367139,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 321,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.514,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51205,
    "published_confidence": 0.533671,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7795,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5724
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032258442545220534
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03129349346383782
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030683488270901442
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02976565090850806
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02811696921465008
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0652777789115858,
      "1": 0.1092669195612517,
      "2": 0.15248992040640064,
      "3": 0.177428214936535,
      "4": 0.17212079215025572,
      "5": 0.1392108536275615,
      "6": 0.09387327386919221,
      "7": 0.05277642149688648,
      "8": 0.02473813881776715,
      "9": 0.009667701047388334,
      "10": 0.00314998517517562
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06860493823762359,
      "1": 0.11451368156235166,
      "2": 0.15846954907767827,
      "3": 0.18181123310494435,
      "4": 0.1729346613889834,
      "5": 0.13637345038381052,
      "6": 0.08915876720608956,
      "7": 0.04832643139165217,
      "8": 0.02171660055213917,
      "9": 0.008090687094727385
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0112,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.5724,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.5724,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.188,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0112,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260827_BAL@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 6 - 2 STL

Final confidence72.8%

Calibrationraw 83.0% → blended 70.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.7% · weight 50.0% · n=104

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1827

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.576881881956628-3.800300216685425	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.4562,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.7281,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.2719,
    "away_win_probability": 0.7281
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.4562,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL",
    "confidence": 0.7281,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.830361,
    "sample_size": 104,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5769,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.703631,
    "published_confidence": 0.7281,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0975,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0975,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -12.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0592,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.632,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1827
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0332702699969136
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03209869436980682
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.03038045067264808
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030289787608848904
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029223166360627585
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11869962630335865,
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          "6": 0.029182743601186657,
          "7": 0.008669934643402164,
          "8": 0.001946784941018017
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03437233384725058,
          "1": 0.059142851918251055,
          "2": 0.08965291878598605,
          "3": 0.119727946219117,
          "4": 0.1408625549817349,
          "5": 0.14600392099143225,
          "6": 0.1333221798351772,
          "7": 0.10725294389698804,
          "8": 0.0760124912552258,
          "9": 0.0474602083423096,
          "10": 0.02610617490364745,
          "11": 0.012651026788565257,
          "12": 0.005401038044596975,
          "13": 0.0020314101897178595
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.576881881956628,
      "home_runs": 3.800300216685425,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260827_COL@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreCOL 3 - 4 WAS

Final confidence53.7%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.4% · weight 50.0% · n=386

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6734

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.99604675040311-5.152757307969312	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.074148,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.537074,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.537074,
    "away_win_probability": 0.462926
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.074148,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.5370744806000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.58625,
    "sample_size": 386,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.559975,
    "published_confidence": 0.537074,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1393,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.192,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6734
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03278365308571973
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03190247854801998
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03034175771924715
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029526217600476745
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028670620195017947
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05593950826372673,
      "1": 0.09440969282755421,
      "2": 0.13504945983589264,
      "3": 0.16373723223410191,
      "4": 0.1682597987080813,
      "5": 0.1465519534663555,
      "6": 0.10818852132814144,
      "7": 0.06769382978786162,
      "8": 0.03590007134463601,
      "9": 0.016136890977634624,
      "10": 0.006147842667448868,
      "11": 0.001985198558565234
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08190615736536642,
      "1": 0.13508492774555528,
      "2": 0.18032683951968778,
      "3": 0.19483948832363115,
      "4": 0.1703949512310984,
      "5": 0.12061452134041298,
      "6": 0.06910438491000227,
      "7": 0.03204606776383939,
      "8": 0.0120283766975278,
      "9": 0.003654285102878465
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0492,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.262,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "COL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6734,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5371,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5233,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5371,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6734,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.192,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0492,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.55-0.60",
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.65-0.70"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "enhanced_shadow"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-27T16:35:24.437971+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-27T17:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.575462,
      "confidence": 0.575462,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "default-v1",
          "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.575462,
      "confidence": 0.575462,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
          "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
          "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58625,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 386,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5322,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6734,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.565924,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -12.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 10.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 135,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.45925925925925926,
          "runs_scored": 697,
          "runs_allowed": 691,
          "run_differential": 6,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.044444444444444446,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 133,
          "wins": 52,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.39097744360902253,
          "runs_scored": 636,
          "runs_allowed": 768,
          "run_differential": -132,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9924812030075187,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0369,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0683,
        "quality_edge": 0.6734,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1393,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.192,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6734
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.2828,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.2828,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6734,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.1393,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.234,
          "home_runs": 5.429,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5166
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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            "probability": 0.03190247854801998
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            "probability": 0.028670620195017947
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "4": 0.1682597987080813,
          "5": 0.1465519534663555,
          "6": 0.10818852132814144,
          "7": 0.06769382978786162,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "7": 0.03204606776383939,
          "8": 0.0120283766975278,
          "9": 0.003654285102878465
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.99604675040311,
      "home_runs": 5.152757307969312,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260827_HOU@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreHOU 3 - 5 NYY

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 74.3% → blended 65.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=210

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.1431

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.019397431926226-5.118068496925291	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.742922,
    "sample_size": 210,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5619,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.652411,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2567,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.932,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.1431
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029667832350671223
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029493623736400323
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028357405850630686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028190892021134676
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02611686421649879
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03799725415418764,
      "1": 0.06516280305940832,
      "2": 0.09779684310875192,
      "3": 0.12844803012357134,
      "4": 0.14764120968188926,
      "5": 0.1485132751417947,
      "6": 0.13073759469110735,
      "7": 0.10071942544610425,
      "8": 0.06790527666261434,
      "9": 0.04006557136294354,
      "10": 0.02068791352195616,
      "11": 0.009348449320452722,
      "12": 0.0036969195346719117,
      "13": 0.001279434190546599
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08899287495162116,
      "1": 0.14582974690607983,
      "2": 0.19094189272680265,
      "3": 0.19976552481483917,
      "4": 0.16699523300711314,
      "5": 0.11154544073120963,
      "6": 0.05953382542943219,
      "7": 0.02538867122667587,
      "8": 0.008651280032832134,
      "9": 0.002355510173394256
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0268,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.002,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1431,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6747,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1431,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.932,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0268,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260827_KC@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreKC 4 - 3 TOR

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 64.4% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.8% · weight 50.0% · n=464

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0016

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.296960853676342-4.081841293215731	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.097366,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548683,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451317,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548683
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.097366,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.5486827725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6443,
    "sample_size": 464,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.528,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58615,
    "published_confidence": 0.548683,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3507,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.656,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0016
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03243732431653422
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0320369820888732
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029454562975843607
      },
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029134725305705714
      },
      {
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          "3": 0.19126387715100715,
          "4": 0.17179038774349267,
          "5": 0.12584565622139798,
          "6": 0.07518843833463251,
          "7": 0.036638472960086974,
          "8": 0.014561198747771542,
          "9": 0.004719873508564959
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.058326940182133136,
          "1": 0.0982306926393835,
          "2": 0.13962516180073736,
          "3": 0.16750147788533679,
          "4": 0.16959461870013343,
          "5": 0.14492521828557817,
          "6": 0.10452359278606901,
          "7": 0.0636243218240475,
          "8": 0.032686654599196875,
          "9": 0.014172819374094842,
          "10": 0.005186573078692476,
          "11": 0.0016019288445968491
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.296960853676342,
      "home_runs": 4.081841293215731,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260827_LAD@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreLAD 3 - 4 ATL

Final confidence56.1%

Calibrationraw 52.5% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=467

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2935

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.084914115526948-4.786135559756143	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.121682,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.560841,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.560841,
    "away_win_probability": 0.439159
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.121682,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5608413,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.525026,
    "sample_size": 467,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.529113,
    "published_confidence": 0.560841,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3008,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.28,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2935
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03273771525193693
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03215763459887289
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030083712330599182
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02955065804256996
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028918021206509516
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05744764205450324,
      "1": 0.09682531361648192,
      "2": 0.13794992616451973,
      "3": 0.16613834802771024,
      "4": 0.16913526128408118,
      "5": 0.1455506954702553,
      "6": 0.1058791062348523,
      "7": 0.06510616337843506,
      "8": 0.03384151493086447,
      "9": 0.014869396562107931,
      "10": 0.005522716467728881,
      "11": 0.0017339158084597982
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08032915238279058,
      "1": 0.132673319046614,
      "2": 0.17786777341520935,
      "3": 0.19355937374259502,
      "4": 0.1709757089501197,
      "5": 0.12259080116147707,
      "6": 0.07134846243794975,
      "7": 0.03370657451200168,
      "8": 0.012925515843868448,
      "9": 0.004023318507374552
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0751,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.07,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2935,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5608,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5307,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5608,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2935,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.28,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0751,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556",
      "config_hash": "sha256:609f40089e4fa7aaceba5c692ee05b3e48c74e1bf83e9c3838fe12e98d6d99f3",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.moderate_cap",
        "old_value": 0.6,
        "new_value": 0.58,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.55-0.60",
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.65-0.70"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-27T22:35:34.131487+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-27T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.571578,
      "confidence": 0.571578,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
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      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.571578,
      "confidence": 0.571578,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-27T06:02:02.124992+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.525026,
        "sample_size": 467,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.529113,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5582,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": 1,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 10.0,
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        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 133,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 55,
          "win_pct": 0.5864661654135338,
          "runs_scored": 624,
          "runs_allowed": 512,
          "run_differential": 112,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8421052631578947,
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        "away": {
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          "run_differential": 149,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1203007518796992,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2782,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.015,
        "quality_edge": -0.2935,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.3008,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.28,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2935
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.004023318507374552
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.084914115526948,
      "home_runs": 4.786135559756143,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260827_MIL@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 4 - 2 NYM

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 74.9% → blended 65.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=209

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.4417

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.186613356278926-2.3210680102017696	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-2	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.748805,
    "sample_size": 209,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.654303,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.8496,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.684,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.4417
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03102383156790989
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030817511545425797
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03053688044979941
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030333798833423124
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027450390247829293
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09736966547709813,
      "1": 0.15833257424469815,
      "2": 0.2025781046429697,
      "3": 0.20393434390463475,
      "4": 0.1615339720918208,
      "5": 0.10067300003340682,
      "6": 0.04936711919214139,
      "7": 0.019047509320639235,
      "8": 0.005782481347981136,
      "9": 0.0013812297446099896
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04069221815935509,
      "1": 0.06961635860725336,
      "2": 0.10372741764431806,
      "3": 0.13460405796419384,
      "4": 0.15212656668764668,
      "5": 0.149738782909853,
      "6": 0.12836477318795206,
      "7": 0.09583844106207937,
      "8": 0.06231835024076559,
      "9": 0.03529185438703058,
      "10": 0.017406655479798926,
      "11": 0.007477191655713142,
      "12": 0.0027973320140402174
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.048,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4417,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6782,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4417,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.684,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.048,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
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          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 73,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3458646616541353,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.6015,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260827	20260827_ARI@SF	SF	53.4%	51.0%	51.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	1-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.1107)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 321, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.514, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51205, "published_confidence": 0.533671, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7795, "recent_quality_edge": -0.188, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5724 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032258442545220534 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03129349346383782 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030683488270901442 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02976565090850806 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02811696921465008 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0652777789115858, "1": 0.1092669195612517, "2": 0.15248992040640064, "3": 0.177428214936535, "4": 0.17212079215025572, "5": 0.1392108536275615, "6": 0.09387327386919221, "7": 0.05277642149688648, "8": 0.02473813881776715, "9": 0.009667701047388334, "10": 0.00314998517517562 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06860493823762359, "1": 0.11451368156235166, "2": 0.15846954907767827, "3": 0.18181123310494435, "4": 0.1729346613889834, "5": 0.13637345038381052, "6": 0.08915876720608956, "7": 0.04832643139165217, "8": 0.02171660055213917, "9": 0.008090687094727385 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0112, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.398, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.5724, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_BAL@STL	BAL	72.8%	83.0%	57.7%	50.0%	6.0-2.0	5-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.830361, "sample_size": 104, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5769, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.703631, "published_confidence": 0.7281, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -6.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0975, "away_run_delta": 0.0975, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -12.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0592, "recent_quality_edge": -0.632, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1827 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0332702699969136 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03209869436980682 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.03038045067264808 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030289787608848904 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029223166360627585 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11869962630335865, "1": 0.1891752662048632, "2": 0.2278724418563112, "3": 0.20745872715724092, "4": 0.14275261156865376, "5": 0.07424186372396548, "6": 0.029182743601186657, "7": 0.008669934643402164, "8": 0.001946784941018017 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03437233384725058, "1": 0.059142851918251055, "2": 0.08965291878598605, "3": 0.119727946219117, "4": 0.1408625549817349, "5": 0.14600392099143225, "6": 0.1333221798351772, "7": 0.10725294389698804, "8": 0.0760124912552258, "9": 0.0474602083423096, "10": 0.02610617490364745, "11": 0.012651026788565257, "12": 0.005401038044596975, "13": 0.0020314101897178595 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0583, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.982, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1827, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_COL@WAS	WAS	53.7%	58.6%	53.4%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	1-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.58625, "sample_size": 386, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5337, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.559975, "published_confidence": 0.537074, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -12.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1393, "recent_quality_edge": -0.192, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6734 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03278365308571973 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03190247854801998 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03034175771924715 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029526217600476745 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028670620195017947 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05593950826372673, "1": 0.09440969282755421, "2": 0.13504945983589264, "3": 0.16373723223410191, "4": 0.1682597987080813, "5": 0.1465519534663555, "6": 0.10818852132814144, "7": 0.06769382978786162, "8": 0.03590007134463601, "9": 0.016136890977634624, "10": 0.006147842667448868, "11": 0.001985198558565234 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08190615736536642, "1": 0.13508492774555528, "2": 0.18032683951968778, "3": 0.19483948832363115, "4": 0.1703949512310984, "5": 0.12061452134041298, "6": 0.06910438491000227, "7": 0.03204606776383939, "8": 0.0120283766975278, "9": 0.003654285102878465 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "COL 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0492, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.262, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "COL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6734, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_HOU@NYY	NYY	56.0%	74.3%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	5-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.742922, "sample_size": 210, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5619, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.652411, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2567, "recent_quality_edge": 0.932, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.1431 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029667832350671223 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029493623736400323 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028357405850630686 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028190892021134676 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02611686421649879 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03799725415418764, "1": 0.06516280305940832, "2": 0.09779684310875192, "3": 0.12844803012357134, "4": 0.14764120968188926, "5": 0.1485132751417947, "6": 0.13073759469110735, "7": 0.10071942544610425, "8": 0.06790527666261434, "9": 0.04006557136294354, "10": 0.02068791352195616, "11": 0.009348449320452722, "12": 0.0036969195346719117, "13": 0.001279434190546599 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08899287495162116, "1": 0.14582974690607983, "2": 0.19094189272680265, "3": 0.19976552481483917, "4": 0.16699523300711314, "5": 0.11154544073120963, "6": 0.05953382542943219, "7": 0.02538867122667587, "8": 0.008651280032832134, "9": 0.002355510173394256 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0268, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.002, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1431, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_KC@TOR	KC	54.9%	64.4%	52.8%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	13-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6443, "sample_size": 464, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.528, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58615, "published_confidence": 0.548683, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0075, "away_run_delta": -0.0075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3507, "recent_quality_edge": -0.656, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0016 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03243732431653422 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0320369820888732 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029454562975843607 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029134725305705714 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029091034059541453 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07769195171456623, "1": 0.12862386071752718, "2": 0.17367628290095288, "3": 0.19126387715100715, "4": 0.17179038774349267, "5": 0.12584565622139798, "6": 0.07518843833463251, "7": 0.036638472960086974, "8": 0.014561198747771542, "9": 0.004719873508564959 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058326940182133136, "1": 0.0982306926393835, "2": 0.13962516180073736, "3": 0.16750147788533679, "4": 0.16959461870013343, "5": 0.14492521828557817, "6": 0.10452359278606901, "7": 0.0636243218240475, "8": 0.032686654599196875, "9": 0.014172819374094842, "10": 0.005186573078692476, "11": 0.0016019288445968491 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0509, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.656, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0016, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_LAD@ATL	ATL	56.1%	52.5%	53.3%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.2988)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.525026, "sample_size": 467, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5332, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.529113, "published_confidence": 0.560841, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0577, "away_run_delta": -0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3008, "recent_quality_edge": -0.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2935 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03273771525193693 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03215763459887289 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030083712330599182 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02955065804256996 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028918021206509516 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05744764205450324, "1": 0.09682531361648192, "2": 0.13794992616451973, "3": 0.16613834802771024, "4": 0.16913526128408118, "5": 0.1455506954702553, "6": 0.1058791062348523, "7": 0.06510616337843506, "8": 0.03384151493086447, "9": 0.014869396562107931, "10": 0.005522716467728881, "11": 0.0017339158084597982 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08032915238279058, "1": 0.132673319046614, "2": 0.17786777341520935, "3": 0.19355937374259502, "4": 0.1709757089501197, "5": 0.12259080116147707, "6": 0.07134846243794975, "7": 0.03370657451200168, "8": 0.012925515843868448, "9": 0.004023318507374552 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0751, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.07, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2935, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260827	20260827_MIL@NYM	MIL	56.0%	74.9%	56.0%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	8-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.748805, "sample_size": 209, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.654303, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.8496, "recent_quality_edge": -0.684, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.4417 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03102383156790989 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030817511545425797 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03053688044979941 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030333798833423124 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027450390247829293 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09736966547709813, "1": 0.15833257424469815, "2": 0.2025781046429697, "3": 0.20393434390463475, "4": 0.1615339720918208, "5": 0.10067300003340682, "6": 0.04936711919214139, "7": 0.019047509320639235, "8": 0.005782481347981136, "9": 0.0013812297446099896 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04069221815935509, "1": 0.06961635860725336, "2": 0.10372741764431806, "3": 0.13460405796419384, "4": 0.15212656668764668, "5": 0.149738782909853, "6": 0.12836477318795206, "7": 0.09583844106207937, "8": 0.06231835024076559, "9": 0.03529185438703058, "10": 0.017406655479798926, "11": 0.007477191655713142, "12": 0.0027973320140402174 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.048, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4417, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0714 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6429, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2143 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.5714, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1429 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.2143, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2143 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1429 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8571, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1429 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 1.8571, "mae_innings": 0.619, "bias_outs": 0.2857 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260827

20260827_ARI@SF

away

Jose Cabrera

True

4.1

-1

5/3

2/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.60377358490566,
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        "offense_edge": 0.0064,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0949,
        "defense_strength": 0.0019,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0283,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0138,
        "run_prevention": 0.9722,
        "strikeout": 1.015
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "703615",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "703615",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 60.0,
            "k_percent": 14.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.355,
            "xwoba": 0.353,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 23.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0794,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2725,
            "whiff_percent": 20.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4429,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6829,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7143,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0389
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "703615",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.15315412186379,
              "release_spin_rate": 2339.8362135176653,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.15315412186379,
                "release_spin_rate": 2339.8362135176653,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1532,
              "release_spin_rate": 2339.8362,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0389,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2777,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1903,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0162,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
          "walk_factor": 0.9946,
          "homer_factor": 1.0058,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "703615",
            "espn_id": 5270084,
            "player_name": "Jose Cabrera",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 555,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 555,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 634,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 221,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 5.6037,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 509,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 305,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 17.2,
              "ip_rank": 512,
              "h_value": 20.0,
              "h_rank": 489,
              "er_value": 11.0,
              "er_rank": 471,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 413,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 531,
              "k_value": 12.0,
              "k_rank": 544,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1132073,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5283,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.07,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0073,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0073,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_ARI@SF

home

Landen Roupp

True

5.0

5/4

1/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.344059405940595,
      "WHIP": 1.3143564356435644,
      "IP": 134.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.387,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2181,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9815,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0034,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 0.9011,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 226,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 449.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 89.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2027,
            "WHIP": 1.6622,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 3.1,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 93.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.638,
            "WHIP": 1.3436,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51534,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57055,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7546,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09202
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 134.2,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 130.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 574.0,
            "Pitches": 2373.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.52,
            "BB": 2.56,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.96,
            "Pitches": 94.92
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3441,
            "WHIP": 1.3144,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48267,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83911,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47525,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96535,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07426
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.952,
        "predicted_H": 4.445,
        "predicted_BB": 3.071,
        "predicted_SO": 4.104,
        "predicted_HR": 0.485,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1565,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4586
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.952,
          "final": 2.1313,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.445,
          "final": 4.6783,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.071,
          "final": 2.2003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.104,
          "final": 4.0603,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.485,
          "final": 0.2811,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1565,
          "final": 5.1565,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4586,
          "final": 1.4586,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 31,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.638036809815952,
        "WHIP": 1.343558282208589,
        "K9": 6.791411042944786,
        "HR9": 0.8282208588957056,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0259764326094625,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.406,
        "runs_scored": 540.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5564,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0602,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6165,
        "offense_index": 0.9051,
        "defense_index": 0.9717,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2181
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5299,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0373,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5149,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4776,
        "offense_index": 1.0064,
        "defense_index": 1.0019,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.03
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2481,
        "offense_edge": -0.0949,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0064,
        "defense_strength": -0.0283,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0019,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.989,
        "run_prevention": 1.0163,
        "strikeout": 0.992
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 29.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.1243,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.5778,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 43.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4384,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0564,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1593
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.00224317148336,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.4570396123822,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.00224317148336,
                "release_spin_rate": 2326.4570396123822,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.457,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1593,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.138,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2181,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9815,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0034,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.9011,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694738",
            "espn_id": 4345404,
            "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 226,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 226,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 279,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 35,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 50,
              "era_value": 4.344,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 2,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 134.2,
              "ip_rank": 51,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 78,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 29,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 144,
              "bb_value": 64.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 130.0,
              "k_rank": 42,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.688119,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3143,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 0.61,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9815,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9815,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9011,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_ARI@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_BAL@STL

away

Trevor Rogers

True

5.2

5.0

-2

4/7

1/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.13819095477387,
      "WHIP": 1.236180904522613,
      "IP": 132.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.528,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0622,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9962,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 108,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0345,
            "WHIP": 1.1034,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96552,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13793,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 243.0,
            "Pitches": 923.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.3,
            "Pitches": 92.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7151,
            "WHIP": 1.0894,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30168,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88827,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20112,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00559,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0838
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.2,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 114.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 556.0,
            "Pitches": 2156.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5417,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 5.3333,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.75,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 23.1667,
            "Pitches": 89.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1382,
            "WHIP": 1.2362,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4598,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96482,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27136,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10553
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.404,
        "predicted_H": 5.446,
        "predicted_BB": 1.257,
        "predicted_SO": 5.729,
        "predicted_HR": 0.683,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7536,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1632
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.404,
          "final": 2.2332,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.446,
          "final": 4.8346,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.257,
          "final": 1.1483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.729,
          "final": 5.8436,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.683,
          "final": 0.3942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7536,
          "final": 3.7536,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1632,
          "final": 1.1632,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.7150837988826817,
        "WHIP": 1.0893854748603353,
        "K9": 9.050279329608939,
        "HR9": 0.7541899441340782,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8032898986957633,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4887,
        "runs_scored": 604.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1654,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7068,
        "offense_index": 1.0122,
        "defense_index": 0.9532,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0299
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4925,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1119,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5373,
        "offense_index": 0.9864,
        "defense_index": 0.9888,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0901
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0602,
        "offense_edge": 0.0122,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0136,
        "defense_strength": -0.0468,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0015,
        "run_prevention": 0.9995,
        "strikeout": 1.0029
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 525.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
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            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.0335,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.985,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 52.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1231,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0364,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0373
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218174875824,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.18055651401573,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218174875824,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1806,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.8218,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0373,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2667,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0622,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9962,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669432",
            "espn_id": 39640,
            "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 108,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 108,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 302,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 52,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 4.1381,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 30,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 40,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
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              "ip_rank": 55,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 38,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 46,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 88,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 92,
              "k_value": 114.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7336683,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2361,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.51,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9962,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_BAL@STL

home

Gordon Graceffo

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-2

2/0

3/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 63.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 52,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.218,
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      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.702,
      "sample_weight": 0.992,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0597,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9167,
      "walk_factor": 1.0536,
      "homer_factor": 1.1179,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.4,
      "whiff_percent": 17.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 176,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 63.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.126,
      "season_WHIP": 1.121,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 12.717,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.2822
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700669",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 52,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 1.0,
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            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
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            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.4,
            "Pitches": 14.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6875,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
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            "Pitches": 213.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
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            "H": 0.8,
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            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.6,
            "Pitches": 21.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
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            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
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            "HR": 0.0962,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1263,
            "WHIP": 1.1211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34737,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07895
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 1.699,
        "predicted_BB": 1.218,
        "predicted_SO": 1.598,
        "predicted_HR": 0.129,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9161,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1913
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.7178,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.793,
          "final": 2.2978,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 1.699,
          "final": 2.7787,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.218,
          "final": 2.0542,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 1.598,
          "final": 4.1328,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.129,
          "final": 1.0069,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9161,
          "final": 2.9161,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1913,
          "final": 1.1913,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.0,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 0,
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        "K9": 6.428571428571429,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.903274613601831,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.717,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7178,
          "prior_weight": 0.2822
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700669",
      "player_name": "Gordon Graceffo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4925,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1119,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4254,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5373,
        "offense_index": 0.9864,
        "defense_index": 0.9888,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.7,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0901
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4887,
        "runs_scored": 604.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1654,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5414,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7068,
        "offense_index": 1.0122,
        "defense_index": 0.9532,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0299
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0602,
        "offense_edge": -0.0136,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0122,
        "defense_strength": -0.0112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0468,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0061,
        "strikeout": 0.9972
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700669",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700669",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 248.0,
            "k_percent": 15.0,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.1984,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1245,
            "whiff_percent": 17.5,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4645,
            "command_and_miss": -0.97,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1,
            "bb_edge": -0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0584
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700669",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.89048731269584,
              "release_spin_rate": 2145.370306715925,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.89048731269584,
                "release_spin_rate": 2145.370306715925,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.8905,
              "release_spin_rate": 2145.3703,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0584,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4173,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.702,
          "sample_weight": 0.992,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0597,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9167,
          "walk_factor": 1.0536,
          "homer_factor": 1.1179,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.073,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700669",
            "espn_id": 5123582,
            "player_name": "Gordon Graceffo",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 176,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 176,
              "gp_value": 52.0,
              "gp_rank": 67,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 348,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 3.1263,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 404,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 130,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 137,
              "ip_value": 63.1,
              "ip_rank": 190,
              "h_value": 41.0,
              "h_rank": 289,
              "er_value": 22.0,
              "er_rank": 262,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 291,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 141,
              "k_value": 38.0,
              "k_rank": 341,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.4,
              "k_per_9_rank": 48.0,
              "whip_value": 1.121,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.96,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0592,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0592,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0532,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.117,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9174,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_COL@WAS

away

Gabriel Hughes

True

4.1

5.0

6/7

2/4

3/3

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.5390625,
      "WHIP": 1.359375,
      "IP": 42.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1051,
      "sample_weight": 0.648,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
      "walk_factor": 0.9857,
      "homer_factor": 0.9293,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0314,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2245,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1051,
          "sample_weight": 0.648,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9911,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9648,
          "walk_factor": 0.9857,
          "homer_factor": 0.9293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.035,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687312",
            "espn_id": 4634930,
            "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 572,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 572,
              "gp_value": 9.0,
              "gp_rank": 518,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 178,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 174,
              "era_value": 6.539,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 509,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 125,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 130,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 42.2,
              "ip_rank": 326,
              "h_value": 43.0,
              "h_rank": 269,
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": 173,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 350,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 357,
              "k_value": 35.0,
              "k_rank": 361,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3828125,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3593,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.09,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9942,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9942,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9907,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9542,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_COL@WAS

home

Jake Irvin

True

4.2

4.1

-1

-2

4/3

2/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.81896551724138,
      "WHIP": 1.3577586206896552,
      "IP": 77.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5548,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0472,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 1.1589,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.353,
      "barrel_percent": 11.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 752,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.013,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 210.0,
            "Pitches": 864.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4196,
            "WHIP": 1.4685,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71329,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00699,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88112,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20979
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 72.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 339.0,
            "Pitches": 1383.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.125,
            "R": 3.375,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0625,
            "SO": 4.75,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 21.1875,
            "Pitches": 86.4375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.819,
            "WHIP": 1.3578,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64655,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42672,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18103
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.283,
        "predicted_H": 4.683,
        "predicted_BB": 2.056,
        "predicted_SO": 4.129,
        "predicted_HR": 1.03,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0798,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3865
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.283,
          "final": 2.7049,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.683,
          "final": 3.0235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.056,
          "final": 2.0308,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.129,
          "final": 3.1697,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.03,
          "final": 1.0165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0798,
          "final": 6.0798,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3865,
          "final": 1.3865,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.41958041958042,
        "WHIP": 1.4685314685314685,
        "K9": 7.930069930069931,
        "HR9": 1.8881118881118881,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2295244183660372,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4593,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 691.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0444,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.163,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1185,
        "offense_index": 1.1508,
        "defense_index": 0.8765,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1342
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 768.0,
        "run_differential": -132.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9925,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.782,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7744,
        "offense_index": 1.0659,
        "defense_index": 0.777,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.6,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2843
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1501,
        "offense_edge": 0.1508,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
        "defense_strength": -0.1235,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.223,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9997,
        "run_prevention": 1.0154,
        "strikeout": 0.9992
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663623",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663623",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 313.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.353,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3962,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7037,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8445,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0943,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.2,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1455
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663623",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.2489732816989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2375.958323028785,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.2489732816989,
                "release_spin_rate": 2375.958323028785,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.249,
              "release_spin_rate": 2375.9583,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1455,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0394,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5548,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0472,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 1.1589,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663623",
            "espn_id": 41290,
            "player_name": "Jake Irvin",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 752,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 752,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 421,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 118,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 205,
              "era_value": 5.8189,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 294,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 40,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 77.1,
              "ip_rank": 151,
              "h_value": 72.0,
              "h_rank": 151,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 85,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 88,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 121,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 142,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.844828,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3577,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.5,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0472,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0472,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1589,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_HOU@NYY

away

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.1

5.0

-1

4/3

1/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.228915662650603,
      "WHIP": 1.2289156626506024,
      "IP": 27.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0108,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9992,
      "walk_factor": 0.9964,
      "homer_factor": 0.9973,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 292,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.2289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.2289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2289,
            "WHIP": 1.2289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.674,
        "predicted_H": 5.072,
        "predicted_BB": 2.009,
        "predicted_SO": 4.779,
        "predicted_HR": 0.603,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3757,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2875
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.674,
          "final": 2.2957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.072,
          "final": 4.4703,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.009,
          "final": 1.4427,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.779,
          "final": 4.3418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.603,
          "final": 0.8258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3757,
          "final": 4.3757,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2875,
          "final": 1.2875,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 27.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 24,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.228915662650603,
        "WHIP": 1.2289156626506024,
        "K9": 7.156626506024096,
        "HR9": 0.6506024096385542,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9792927549841715,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3609,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9323,
        "offense_index": 1.0198,
        "defense_index": 0.9088,
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        "recent": {
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          "wins": 3,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
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          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1175
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5682,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 491.0,
        "run_differential": 104.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7879,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5076,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7197,
        "offense_index": 1.0056,
        "defense_index": 1.2051,
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        "recent": {
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          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2246
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0198,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0056,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0271,
        "strikeout": 0.9893
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 94.0,
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            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6543,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2732,
            "whiff_percent": 27.4,
            "swing_percent": 50.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0707,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0307,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.095
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
                "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1506,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6169,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.095,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6787,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0108,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9991,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9992,
          "walk_factor": 0.9964,
          "homer_factor": 0.9973,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_id": 42996,
            "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 292,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 292,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 600,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 209,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 4.2289,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 227,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 404,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 27.2,
              "ip_rank": 432,
              "h_value": 24.0,
              "h_rank": 448,
              "er_value": 13.0,
              "er_rank": 425,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 489,
              "bb_value": 10.0,
              "bb_rank": 457,
              "k_value": 22.0,
              "k_rank": 446,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1566267,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2289,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.33,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_HOU@NYY

home

Gerrit Cole

True

6.0

4/6

1/1

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.0683453237410072,
      "IP": 92.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.792,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2635,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9776,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
      "walk_factor": 0.922,
      "homer_factor": 1.0186,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4674,
            "WHIP": 1.0109,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1087,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03261
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 930.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 7.1,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8343,
            "WHIP": 1.011,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31492,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82873,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18232,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1768,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11602
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 92.2,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 100.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 376.0,
            "Pitches": 1426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0625,
            "H": 4.9375,
            "BB": 1.25,
            "SO": 6.25,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 89.125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1079,
            "WHIP": 1.0683,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34532,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85252,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21583,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07914,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1295
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.857,
        "predicted_H": 5.001,
        "predicted_BB": 1.54,
        "predicted_SO": 6.442,
        "predicted_HR": 0.576,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8093,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0995
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.857,
          "final": 1.0202,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.001,
          "final": 4.55,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.54,
          "final": 1.2967,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 6.442,
          "final": 7.5946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.576,
          "final": 0.3165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8093,
          "final": 2.8093,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0995,
          "final": 1.0995,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 71,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8342541436464086,
        "WHIP": 1.011049723756906,
        "K9": 10.591160220994475,
        "HR9": 1.0441988950276242,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8147381687040969,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5682,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 491.0,
        "run_differential": 104.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7879,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5076,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7197,
        "offense_index": 1.0056,
        "defense_index": 1.2051,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2246
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3609,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5714,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9323,
        "offense_index": 1.0198,
        "defense_index": 0.9088,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1175
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3421,
        "offense_edge": 0.0056,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0198,
        "defense_strength": 0.2051,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0912,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.019,
        "run_prevention": 0.9656,
        "strikeout": 1.0087
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 348.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.285,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7584,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0837,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2792,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3407,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.975,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1252
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.0825980662545,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.0825980662545,
                "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792056180953,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0826,
              "release_spin_rate": 2363.5792,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1252,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8941,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2635,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9776,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 0.922,
          "homer_factor": 1.0186,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_id": 32081,
            "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 44,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 44,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 421,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 118,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 50,
              "era_value": 3.1079,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 97,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 92.2,
              "ip_rank": 123,
              "h_value": 79.0,
              "h_rank": 136,
              "er_value": 32.0,
              "er_rank": 166,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 120,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 264,
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": 87,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.712231,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0683,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.54,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9776,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9776,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0186,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_KC@TOR

away

Noah Cameron

True

6.1

6.0

-1

4/6

2/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.01860465116279,
      "WHIP": 1.213953488372093,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.681,
      "recent_avg_IP": 7.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0585,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.005,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 1.0159,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 119,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 504.0
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        },
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.09767
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 2.8914,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8811346502394269,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 103,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.77804095392263,
              "release_spin_rate": 2196.6732125022254,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
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              {
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                "pitches": 103,
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            ],
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 25.0,
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              "whip_value": 1.2139,
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              "war_value": 1.42,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_KC@TOR

home

Spencer Arrighetti

True

4.2

4.0

-2

5/5

1/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.7299270072992705,
      "WHIP": 1.3467153284671534,
      "IP": 91.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.176,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.8,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3648,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.031,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
      "walk_factor": 1.076,
      "homer_factor": 1.0104,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 13.0,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.345,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 240,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681293",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 89.0,
            "Pitches": 346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 69.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.4483,
            "WHIP": 1.5517,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 203.0,
            "Pitches": 808.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.1,
            "R": 4.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 20.3,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.3233,
            "WHIP": 1.5789,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.92481,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99248,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58647,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08271,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24812
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 401.0,
            "Pitches": 1565.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 3.9444,
            "BB": 2.8889,
            "SO": 5.0556,
            "HR": 0.7222,
            "BF": 22.2778,
            "Pitches": 86.9444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7299,
            "WHIP": 1.3467,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52555,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56934,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99635,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14234
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.234,
        "predicted_H": 3.862,
        "predicted_BB": 2.65,
        "predicted_SO": 4.168,
        "predicted_HR": 0.857,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.6264,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4824
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.234,
          "final": 3.1306,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.862,
          "final": 4.3648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.65,
          "final": 1.9209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.168,
          "final": 4.9775,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.857,
          "final": 1.362,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.6264,
          "final": 6.6264,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4824,
          "final": 1.4824,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 41,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 8.32330827067669,
        "WHIP": 1.5789473684210527,
        "K9": 9.74436090225564,
        "HR9": 2.233082706766917,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.419131663575393,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681293",
      "player_name": "Spencer Arrighetti",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4851,
        "runs_scored": 527.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.403,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9328,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3358,
        "offense_index": 0.8773,
        "defense_index": 1.0339,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0621
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4403,
        "runs_scored": 565.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": -92.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6866,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2164,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.903,
        "offense_index": 0.9406,
        "defense_index": 0.9143,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.005
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0671,
        "offense_edge": -0.1227,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0594,
        "defense_strength": 0.0339,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0857,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0007,
        "run_prevention": 0.9905,
        "strikeout": 1.0027
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681293",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681293",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 383.0,
            "k_percent": 22.7,
            "bb_percent": 13.0,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.345,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.124,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.904,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 42.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4361,
            "command_and_miss": -0.125,
            "regression_edge": -0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681293",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.44963252833853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.7609751645673,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.44963252833853,
                "release_spin_rate": 2497.7609751645673,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.4496,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.761,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3648,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.031,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
          "walk_factor": 1.076,
          "homer_factor": 1.0104,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681293",
            "espn_id": 4726080,
            "player_name": "Spencer Arrighetti",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 240,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 240,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 390,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 109,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.7299,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 97,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 91.1,
              "ip_rank": 128,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 152,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 97,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 108,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 19,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 103,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.967153,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3467,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.53,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.031,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.031,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0104,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_LAD@ATL

away

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

True

6.1

-2

4/4

3/1

9/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.610989010989011,
      "WHIP": 0.8967032967032967,
      "IP": 151.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.594,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5479,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9534,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9403,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 10,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 507.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 101.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9688,
            "WHIP": 0.9688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 260.0,
            "Pitches": 1003.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 100.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7273,
            "WHIP": 0.9697,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30303,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30303,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98485,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07576
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.2,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 101.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 145.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 583.0,
            "Pitches": 2267.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.913,
            "R": 1.9565,
            "H": 4.3913,
            "BB": 1.5217,
            "SO": 6.3043,
            "HR": 0.6522,
            "BF": 25.3478,
            "Pitches": 98.5652
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.611,
            "WHIP": 0.8967,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29011,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66593,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.98,
        "predicted_H": 4.656,
        "predicted_BB": 1.987,
        "predicted_SO": 6.342,
        "predicted_HR": 0.567,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7484,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0246
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.98,
          "final": 1.9885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.656,
          "final": 4.3769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.987,
          "final": 2.418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.342,
          "final": 5.771,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.567,
          "final": 0.3258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7484,
          "final": 2.7484,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0246,
          "final": 1.0246,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 66.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.727272727272727,
        "WHIP": 0.9696969696969697,
        "K9": 8.863636363636363,
        "HR9": 0.6818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8016689405105593,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
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              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 3.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
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            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.8,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.6015,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 149.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8496,
        "offense_index": 1.1087,
        "defense_index": 1.1644,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2587
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 133,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5865,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8421,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6917,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8496,
        "offense_index": 1.0466,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1768
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0819,
        "offense_edge": 0.1087,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0466,
        "defense_strength": 0.1644,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1644,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9869,
        "strikeout": 0.9987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 24.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1384,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7868,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9044,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4014,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1571,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.071
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808967",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.11478597119859,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.449780817317,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.11478597119859,
                "release_spin_rate": 2175.449780817317,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1148,
              "release_spin_rate": 2175.4498,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.071,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.507,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5479,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9534,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.9403,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_id": 4872587,
            "player_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 10,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 10,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 318,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 64,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 2,
              "era_value": 2.6109,
              "era_rank": 7.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 12,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 151.2,
              "ip_rank": 13,
              "h_value": 101.0,
              "h_rank": 98,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 117,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 73,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 104,
              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.604395,
              "k_per_9_rank": 49.0,
              "whip_value": 0.8967,
              "whip_rank": 2.0,
              "war_value": 4.42,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9534,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9534,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9403,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_LAD@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.0

9.0

-1

7/5

1/0

5/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.2,
      "WHIP": 1.0296296296296297,
      "IP": 135.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.87,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6674,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9433,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 0.9163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 5.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 497.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 99.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.9333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.43333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0647,
            "WHIP": 1.0059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 135.0,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 111.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 166.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 542.0,
            "Pitches": 2171.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4348,
            "R": 1.6522,
            "H": 4.8261,
            "BB": 1.2174,
            "SO": 7.2174,
            "HR": 0.3478,
            "BF": 23.5652,
            "Pitches": 94.3913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2,
            "WHIP": 1.0296,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24444,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20741,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22963,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05926
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.811,
        "predicted_H": 5.114,
        "predicted_BB": 1.048,
        "predicted_SO": 7.531,
        "predicted_HR": 0.272,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7607,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0437
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.811,
          "final": 1.466,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.114,
          "final": 5.9164,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.048,
          "final": 1.0276,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.531,
          "final": 6.0287,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.272,
          "final": 0.1563,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7607,
          "final": 2.7607,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0437,
          "final": 1.0437,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 74,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.0647058823529414,
        "WHIP": 1.0058823529411764,
        "K9": 11.75294117647059,
        "HR9": 0.31764705882352945,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7280348050381885,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.375,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.375,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5865,
        "runs_scored": 624.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8421,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6917,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8496,
        "offense_index": 1.0466,
        "defense_index": 1.1644,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1768
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.6015,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 512.0,
        "run_differential": 149.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8496,
        "offense_index": 1.1087,
        "defense_index": 1.1644,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2587
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0819,
        "offense_edge": 0.0466,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1087,
        "defense_strength": 0.1644,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1644,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9973,
        "run_prevention": 1.005,
        "strikeout": 0.9888
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 491.0,
            "k_percent": 30.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.2,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.272,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8741,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4634,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7889,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9979,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0657
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7058,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0657,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4693,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6674,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9433,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 0.9163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_id": 30948,
            "player_name": "Chris Sale",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 9,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 9,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 318,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 64,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 6,
              "era_value": 2.2,
              "era_rank": 3.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 12,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 20,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 135.0,
              "ip_rank": 50,
              "h_value": 111.0,
              "h_rank": 82,
              "er_value": 33.0,
              "er_rank": 162,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 191,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 162,
              "k_value": 166.0,
              "k_rank": 12,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.066667,
              "k_per_9_rank": 6.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0296,
              "whip_rank": 8.0,
              "war_value": 4.59,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9433,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9433,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9163,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_MIL@NYM

away

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

4/2

1/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.6758620689655173,
      "WHIP": 0.7586206896551724,
      "IP": 145.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.042,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.4262,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8788,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.8383,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 39.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.212,
      "xwoba": 0.219,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 37.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.7,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.43333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 85.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 8.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1724,
            "WHIP": 0.7931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60345,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18966,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 77.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 216.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 550.0,
            "Pitches": 2179.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.125,
            "R": 1.4583,
            "H": 3.2083,
            "BB": 1.375,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.5417,
            "BF": 22.9167,
            "Pitches": 90.7917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6759,
            "WHIP": 0.7586,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18621,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53103,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22759,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.48966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08966
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.619,
        "predicted_H": 3.718,
        "predicted_BB": 1.289,
        "predicted_SO": 8.072,
        "predicted_HR": 0.796,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4684,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.848
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.619,
          "final": 1.3573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.718,
          "final": 3.8372,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.289,
          "final": 1.1668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 8.072,
          "final": 6.773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.796,
          "final": 1.3051,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4684,
          "final": 2.4684,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.848,
          "final": 0.848,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 85,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1724137931034484,
        "WHIP": 0.7931034482758621,
        "K9": 13.189655172413794,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7348324723809877,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
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              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6165,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 493.0,
        "run_differential": 167.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2556,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9624,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7068,
        "offense_index": 1.107,
        "defense_index": 1.2093,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 38.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3231
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4511,
        "runs_scored": 550.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3459,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1353,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4812,
        "offense_index": 0.9225,
        "defense_index": 1.0003,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.049
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3721,
        "offense_edge": 0.107,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0775,
        "defense_strength": 0.2093,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0003,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0243,
        "run_prevention": 0.9481,
        "strikeout": 1.0174
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 525.0,
            "k_percent": 39.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.212,
            "xwoba": 0.219,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9061,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9088,
            "whiff_percent": 37.9,
            "swing_percent": 51.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6571,
            "command_and_miss": 1.9071,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": 1.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.61667244035621,
              "release_spin_rate": 2563.200146698222,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.61667244035621,
                "release_spin_rate": 2563.200146698222,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.6167,
              "release_spin_rate": 2563.2001,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.4262,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8788,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.8383,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_id": 5080761,
            "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 4,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 4,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 302,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 52,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 6,
              "era_value": 1.6758,
              "era_rank": 1.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 7,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 125,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 145.0,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 77.0,
              "h_rank": 141,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 196,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 108,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 121,
              "k_value": 216.0,
              "k_rank": 1,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.406897,
              "k_per_9_rank": null,
              "whip_value": 0.7586,
              "whip_rank": 1.0,
              "war_value": 5.46,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8788,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8788,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8383,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 10
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260827

20260827_MIL@NYM

home

Sean Manaea

True

6.1

5.2

-2

6/8

1/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.3076923076923075,
      "WHIP": 1.3076923076923077,
      "IP": 117.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.692,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3627,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0308,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 1.1224,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 11.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 280,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260827",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.734,
            "WHIP": 1.1809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41489,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82979,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35106,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05319,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2234
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 1.3,
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            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7709,
            "WHIP": 1.2067,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41899,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88827,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31844,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95531,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 117.0,
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            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 117.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0741,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.2222,
            "BB": 1.4444,
            "SO": 4.3333,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3077,
            "WHIP": 1.3077,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47863,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97436,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16239
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.013,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.9649,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2357
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.598,
          "final": 1.9332,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.275,
          "final": 5.5766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.013,
          "final": 1.5916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.886,
          "final": 5.5174,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.177,
          "final": 0.6874,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9649,
          "final": 3.9649,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2357,
          "final": 1.2357,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 3.7709497206703912,
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        "K9": 8.597765363128492,
        "HR9": 1.9608938547486034,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9250077757907355,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4511,
        "runs_scored": 550.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": -46.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3459,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1353,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4812,
        "offense_index": 0.9225,
        "defense_index": 1.0003,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.049
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6165,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 493.0,
        "run_differential": 167.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2556,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9624,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7068,
        "offense_index": 1.107,
        "defense_index": 1.2093,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 38.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3231
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3721,
        "offense_edge": -0.0775,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.107,
        "defense_strength": 0.0003,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2093,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9808,
        "run_prevention": 1.0357,
        "strikeout": 0.9803
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 479.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7894,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.671,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 122.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6441,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6562,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0207,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2575
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
                "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2492,
              "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2575,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.8392,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3627,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0308,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "640455",
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            "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 280,
            "espn_total_ranked": 832,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 280,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 225,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 143,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 4.3076,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 176,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 125,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 243,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 336,
              "ip_value": 117.0,
              "ip_rank": 88,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 72,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 61,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 31,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 71,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 60,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3076,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0308,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
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            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260827_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}