Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260826 · dates 20260826 · generated 2026-08-27T06:00:19.384444+00:00

6-9

Winner picks · 40.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

19/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260826	15	15	0	6	9	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2001.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	53.5%	50.0%	3.5%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	6	57.4%	16.7%	40.7%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	71.6%	100.0%	-28.4%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.9177	4.111	3.9967	53.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.9	4.2	3.9333	26.7%	-0.0177	-0.0634
enhanced_prediction	15	2.9667	5.0	4.3333	40.0%	0.049	0.3366
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.9667	5.0	4.4667	40.0%	0.049	0.47
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.9667	5.0	4.4667	40.0%	0.049	0.47
capped_target	15	2.9667	5.0	4.4667	40.0%	0.049	0.47
simulation_result	15	2.9667	5.0	4.4667	40.0%	0.049	0.47
published_final	15	2.9667	5.0	4.4667	40.0%	0.049	0.47

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.9667,
  "total_run_mae": 5.0,
  "margin_mae": 4.3333,
  "winner_hits": 6,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.049,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3366
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=9

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	9.0	9
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	9
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	9
capped_target	0.0	9
simulation_result	0.0	9
variance_applied	-0.4785	9

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.4785,
      "games": 9
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	7.0	6
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	6
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	6
capped_target	0.0	6
simulation_result	0.0	6
variance_applied	-0.0107	6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0107,
      "games": 6
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	8	4	4	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	6	1	5	0.1667
[0.600, 1.010)	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 6,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 5,
    "accuracy": 0.1667
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 8,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.1667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260826	15	0.5623	7.6	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260826",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5623,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.6,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v10	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	6	9	0.4

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 9,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260826_BAL@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBAL

Published scoreBAL 6 - 2 STL

Final confidence71.6%

Calibrationraw 77.2% → blended 65.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=169

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0855

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.098296615014877-3.8251582823987	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.432302,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.716151,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.283849,
    "away_win_probability": 0.716151
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.432302,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL",
    "confidence": 0.716151,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.772022,
    "sample_size": 169,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.655261,
    "published_confidence": 0.716151,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -12.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -12.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0861,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.404,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0855
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03269848149788205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03266740432899528
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030858750342315496
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030829421683855166
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02861155556679908
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11121306385032886,
      "1": 0.17852250699565675,
      "2": 0.21972877671072516,
      "3": 0.2073660657293167,
      "4": 0.15005318825708946,
      "5": 0.0832548526142436,
      "6": 0.03541854158104937,
      "7": 0.011553367335092565,
      "8": 0.0028896369264974457
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03859980861933532,
      "1": 0.06615983185046855,
      "2": 0.09912987600995606,
      "3": 0.12984213920031076,
      "4": 0.14867148863256177,
      "5": 0.14881292285593473,
      "6": 0.13021305627376445,
      "7": 0.09960229537727655,
      "8": 0.06660166562254408,
      "9": 0.03893155608747086,
      "10": 0.019893874042443693,
      "11": 0.008886646277019078,
      "12": 0.0034702227515584954,
      "13": 0.001184616399355695
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0536,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0855,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.7162,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.642,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7162,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0855,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.404,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0536,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.098296615014877,
      "home_runs": 3.8251582823987,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_BOS@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 5 - 3 MIA

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 69.8% → blended 63.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=282

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6934

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.143515229294102-3.5321313602781608	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.697582,
    "sample_size": 282,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5709,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.634241,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.045,
    "away_run_delta": 0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7566,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.576,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6934
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.027882577346657226
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027602272278556
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025573013636234564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02531592673785579
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024943222148910343
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0743795870848152,
      "1": 0.12350850270310176,
      "2": 0.1682707320627158,
      "3": 0.1881000647754032,
      "4": 0.17251940025747597,
      "5": 0.12982417394908782,
      "6": 0.0801570692302821,
      "7": 0.04060660914558213,
      "8": 0.016877971699858055,
      "9": 0.005755889091677835
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037484046348688134,
      "1": 0.06431279554915792,
      "2": 0.09665684145438119,
      "3": 0.1272483325372113,
      "4": 0.14674249214913293,
      "5": 0.14823268338556828,
      "6": 0.1311645096790888,
      "7": 0.10166535916697328,
      "8": 0.06902619723120043,
      "9": 0.04105245997798778,
      "10": 0.021386943114523202,
      "11": 0.009759836264014821,
      "12": 0.0039014014303391177,
      "13": 0.0013661017117328248
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 MIA",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0926,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.926,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6934,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6802,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6934,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.576,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0926,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.143515229294102,
      "home_runs": 3.5321313602781608,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_CHC@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 4 - 3 ARI

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 62.7% → blended 59.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=282

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6823

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.650691953634869-4.799847458679325	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.626635,
    "sample_size": 282,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.597018,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9549,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.176,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.031462950330214144
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029214762429088978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02913069076964876
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029085019890139074
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02756119509215057
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08164513628816449,
      "1": 0.13468627931319171,
      "2": 0.1799222668891191,
      "3": 0.19463233540201713,
      "4": 0.17049576441356468,
      "5": 0.12094299412928101,
      "6": 0.06947304889147585,
      "7": 0.03231621750286526,
      "8": 0.01217287625794171,
      "9": 0.0037130809123790587
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04796399191520422,
      "1": 0.08152695546931732,
      "2": 0.11913555173856563,
      "3": 0.14967035518265098,
      "4": 0.16165325389137816,
      "5": 0.1501023063241022,
      "6": 0.11982419840839505,
      "7": 0.08223485902554524,
      "8": 0.048520093032121715,
      "9": 0.024611696466050256,
      "10": 0.010732866526418005,
      "11": 0.0040238720202509974
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          "2": 0.11913555173856563,
          "3": 0.14967035518265098,
          "4": 0.16165325389137816,
          "5": 0.1501023063241022,
          "6": 0.11982419840839505,
          "7": 0.08223485902554524,
          "8": 0.048520093032121715,
          "9": 0.024611696466050256,
          "10": 0.010732866526418005,
          "11": 0.0040238720202509974
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.650691953634869,
      "home_runs": 4.799847458679325,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_CIN@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSF

Published scoreCIN 3 - 4 SF

Final confidence58.8%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 62.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.0% · weight 50.0% · n=284

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1513

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.075288127121737-5.106143735641539	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.176426,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.588213,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.588213,
    "away_win_probability": 0.411787
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.176426,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.588213,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 284,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.62145,
    "published_confidence": 0.588213,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1208,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.208,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1513
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03303332353431378
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03296562967680403
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03066750047634561
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030604654804602366
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03058886383593717
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04798590175361874,
      "1": 0.0815625940774676,
      "2": 0.11918060465984645,
      "3": 0.14971224542561884,
      "4": 0.16167625795839033,
      "5": 0.15009711974038312,
      "6": 0.1197941618640341,
      "7": 0.08219324622358885,
      "8": 0.04848124882233926,
      "9": 0.02458377929420821,
      "10": 0.010716690377842267,
      "11": 0.004016149802662167
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09836755534291595,
      "1": 0.15980747106968568,
      "2": 0.20389901456828746,
      "3": 0.20431771461964052,
      "4": 0.16079397251398034,
      "5": 0.09938168477762094,
      "6": 0.048240943401159954,
      "7": 0.0183906922535663,
      "8": 0.0055062155575758545,
      "9": 0.0012947358955670853
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0615,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.278,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1513,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5882,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5731,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5882,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1513,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.208,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0615,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
      "parent_config_id": "default-v1",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-26T18:35:38.201920+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T19:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.60378,
      "confidence": 0.60378,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.60378,
      "confidence": 0.60378,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
        "sample_size": 284,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.62145
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.62145,
        "final_confidence": 0.6226,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6226,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.961258,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.5,
        "calibration_sample_size": 284,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5662,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1513,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.62256,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.961258,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.60378,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.60378
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SF",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 54,
          "losses": 78,
          "win_pct": 0.4090909090909091,
          "runs_scored": 531,
          "runs_allowed": 604,
          "run_differential": -73,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.553030303030303,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 133,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.46616541353383456,
          "runs_scored": 538,
          "runs_allowed": 639,
          "run_differential": -101,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.7593984962406015,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2064,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0571,
        "quality_edge": 0.1513,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1208,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1208,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.208,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1513
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03303332353431378
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03296562967680403
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03058886383593717
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04798590175361874,
          "1": 0.0815625940774676,
          "2": 0.11918060465984645,
          "3": 0.14971224542561884,
          "4": 0.16167625795839033,
          "5": 0.15009711974038312,
          "6": 0.1197941618640341,
          "7": 0.08219324622358885,
          "8": 0.04848124882233926,
          "9": 0.02458377929420821,
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          "11": 0.004016149802662167
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09836755534291595,
          "1": 0.15980747106968568,
          "2": 0.20389901456828746,
          "3": 0.20431771461964052,
          "4": 0.16079397251398034,
          "5": 0.09938168477762094,
          "6": 0.048240943401159954,
          "7": 0.0183906922535663,
          "8": 0.0055062155575758545,
          "9": 0.0012947358955670853
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.075288127121737,
      "home_runs": 5.106143735641539,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_CLE@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 3 LAA

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 61.6% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=372

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6754

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.233719380077349-2.9921370719047884	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.109068,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554534,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.445466,
    "away_win_probability": 0.554534
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.109068,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.5545343,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.615816,
    "sample_size": 372,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5403,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578058,
    "published_confidence": 0.554534,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.688,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.652,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6754
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03288110656030709
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0320517744421359
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030499833861575777
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029730562554544267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028666287033527034
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08239788371647792,
      "1": 0.1358353697494167,
      "2": 0.18108636478308643,
      "3": 0.19522467184821823,
      "4": 0.17020006516395297,
      "5": 0.11999435404005089,
      "6": 0.0684128955071811,
      "7": 0.03154214335589635,
      "8": 0.011760356856378556,
      "9": 0.0035458949793409087
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.056213182054274835,
      "1": 0.09484852899408716,
      "2": 0.13557834719676443,
      "3": 0.16417891313990923,
      "4": 0.16842700386696635,
      "5": 0.1463771798129523,
      "6": 0.1077711044688547,
      "7": 0.06722001382358406,
      "8": 0.035519117504322004,
      "9": 0.015899850544285218,
      "10": 0.006029637772024273,
      "11": 0.0019371208219754632
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.002,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6754,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6037,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6754,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.652,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.039,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "home_runs": 2.9921370719047884,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_COL@WAS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreCOL 3 - 5 WAS

Final confidence57.0%

Calibrationraw 75.3% → blended 65.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=190

H2H base featurehome net 19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9814

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.4988050497355365-4.851452021383842	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.14,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.57,
    "away_win_probability": 0.43
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.14,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 3 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.753045,
    "sample_size": 190,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.650222,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3397,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.316,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9814
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030034020311630917
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029682363199167096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029481914497704542
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029136721785753383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026851653736602116
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03645817753890961,
      "1": 0.06261142994375865,
      "2": 0.09436524454182041,
      "3": 0.12481601050135456,
      "4": 0.14488662788539675,
      "5": 0.14759990994250138,
      "6": 0.13196041130047723,
      "7": 0.10353829492208369,
      "8": 0.07129484630294336,
      "9": 0.04308390362076124,
      "10": 0.022849238691576804,
      "11": 0.010634772490474138,
      "12": 0.004343946348220855,
      "13": 0.0015571859697213514
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09626531890801092,
      "1": 0.1566967086821598,
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          "6": 0.13196041130047723,
          "7": 0.10353829492208369,
          "8": 0.07129484630294336,
          "9": 0.04308390362076124,
          "10": 0.022849238691576804,
          "11": 0.010634772490474138,
          "12": 0.004343946348220855,
          "13": 0.0015571859697213514
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09626531890801092,
          "1": 0.1566967086821598,
          "2": 0.20110014437495305,
          "3": 0.20348264659057644,
          "4": 0.16233226943542456,
          "5": 0.102104487580782,
          "6": 0.050634588790432485,
          "7": 0.019797585715150896,
          "8": 0.006102947919739105,
          "9": 0.0014833020027706547
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.4988050497355365,
      "home_runs": 4.851452021383842,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_HOU@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreHOU 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 67.6% → blended 62.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=282

H2H base featurehome net 8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9201

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.176823232259613-3.800719866558496	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.077334,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.538667,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.538667,
    "away_win_probability": 0.461333
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.077334,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5386666610749999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.676242,
    "sample_size": 282,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5709,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.623571,
    "published_confidence": 0.538667,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.05,
    "away_run_delta": -0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1636,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.468,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9201
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03101095899350239
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02995603492260523
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029478194877418522
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028475412043475794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02784293624265165
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04309566236003524,
      "1": 0.07357441552561537,
      "2": 0.10894042098092202,
      "3": 0.1399008152621948,
      "4": 0.15581899866607957,
      "5": 0.15051838179607627,
      "6": 0.12610364496046175,
      "7": 0.09162937128852308,
      "8": 0.05774451542611843,
      "9": 0.03156136250692725,
      "10": 0.014961313160414517,
      "11": 0.006151098066631484
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.087784632487898,
      "1": 0.14400858364966612,
      "2": 0.18918228925723207,
      "3": 0.1990191135803596,
      "4": 0.16766071440989497,
      "5": 0.11310714775739193,
      "6": 0.061104191624980146,
      "7": 0.02643468677587881,
      "8": 0.00915797699702035,
      "9": 0.0025406634596779553
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0226,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.468,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9201,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5387,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6281,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5387,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9201,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.468,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0226,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.176823232259613,
      "home_runs": 3.800719866558496,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_KC@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickKC

Published scoreKC 4 - 3 TOR

Final confidence58.8%

Calibrationraw 70.2% → blended 63.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.0% · weight 50.0% · n=284

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0492

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7655743824074097-4.730621406491464	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.176426,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.588213,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.411787,
    "away_win_probability": 0.588213
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.176426,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.588213,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.701727,
    "sample_size": 284,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.636064,
    "published_confidence": 0.588213,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.297,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.692,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0492
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03277846832952856
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0324581163038101
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03059884019318995
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030299790208853324
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03022321684600951
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09668876957577513,
      "1": 0.1573244144167176,
      "2": 0.20166885894894507,
      "3": 0.20365927105061846,
      "4": 0.1620287776673124,
      "5": 0.10155533738089818,
      "6": 0.050145963203377664,
      "7": 0.01950706040663402,
      "8": 0.005978198163739308,
      "9": 0.0014433491859821106
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047304519874840426,
      "1": 0.08045361929445732,
      "2": 0.11777601992038295,
      "3": 0.1484008888478133,
      "4": 0.16094758741123866,
      "5": 0.15024526030825655,
      "6": 0.12072172444677974,
      "7": 0.0834907612837183,
      "8": 0.04970038490849682,
      "9": 0.025465336765492803,
      "10": 0.011230715769293374,
      "11": 0.0042631811692297695
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0214,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.042,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0492,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5882,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6139,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5882,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0492,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.692,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0214,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7655743824074097,
      "home_runs": 4.730621406491464,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_LAD@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 4 - 3 ATL

Final confidence54.9%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=450

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4298

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.853659992367438-3.689227352033082	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.097338,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.548669,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.451331,
    "away_win_probability": 0.548669
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.097338,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.548669045,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 450,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5333,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54845,
    "published_confidence": 0.548669,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0562,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0562,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3295,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.616,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4298
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032318209593765884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031845064694352686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029276011757747657
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02912549497535532
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028847405228721024
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07715990658351425,
      "1": 0.12780439557286402,
      "2": 0.1728186187303844,
      "3": 0.1907769537753244,
      "4": 0.17193010622929547,
      "5": 0.12649361214313376,
      "6": 0.07597590792873009,
      "7": 0.037254080124604426,
      "8": 0.014912911179348391,
      "9": 0.004873507732800745
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05795167282366463,
      "1": 0.09763117640001055,
      "2": 0.13891162932731765,
      "3": 0.16692301697958872,
      "4": 0.169403111613925,
      "5": 0.14519580812219404,
      "6": 0.1051028059433105,
      "7": 0.0642542827873708,
      "8": 0.03317549315448044,
      "9": 0.014466392089317815,
      "10": 0.005327587773667849,
      "11": 0.0016570229851519589
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0853,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.441,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4298,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5487,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.537,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5487,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4298,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.616,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0853,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.853659992367438,
      "home_runs": 3.689227352033082,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_MIL@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 4 - 3 NYM

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 59.1% → blended 57.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=366

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.2106

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.690049318918242-4.104048742108473	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.59115,
    "sample_size": 366,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5492,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.570175,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.7462,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.2106
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030710958580695908
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02879580789023859
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028244815615544042
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02805722491238558
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027419432139462206
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07394290699383432,
      "1": 0.12283171771049159,
      "2": 0.16754635555633368,
      "3": 0.1876592177279874,
      "4": 0.1725898587423425,
      "5": 0.13033801442064202,
      "6": 0.08082344981205622,
      "7": 0.04115419606275935,
      "8": 0.01720684777281211,
      "9": 0.0059074352007408
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049979334712149416,
      "1": 0.08479941690727946,
      "2": 0.12324874272933455,
      "3": 0.15344734055098855,
      "4": 0.1636528114766605,
      "5": 0.149511573436561,
      "6": 0.11700741635099972,
      "7": 0.07844029243438794,
      "8": 0.04504558744280805,
      "9": 0.022159121682798825,
      "10": 0.009337703211682478,
      "11": 0.003370659064349689
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0082,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.216,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2106,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5873,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2106,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0082,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.690049318918242,
      "home_runs": 4.104048742108473,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_MIN@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 OAK

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.3% · weight 50.0% · n=312

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7253

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.7801177370117385-5.705244873940792	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.05387,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526935,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.473065,
    "away_win_probability": 0.526935
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.05387,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5269348,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 312,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51145,
    "published_confidence": 0.526935,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1504,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.064,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7253
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03235866206609173
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03134753668359646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030733817405583
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02977346426068818
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028233811637898495
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06883699935819841,
      "1": 0.1148770200188617,
      "2": 0.15887270795335373,
      "3": 0.18208339469428106,
      "4": 0.17294033337017484,
      "5": 0.13612163241797243,
      "6": 0.08878976615107194,
      "7": 0.047995838391281555,
      "8": 0.021500529678175135,
      "9": 0.00798177796662924
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06549852019699431,
      "1": 0.10961485662692945,
      "2": 0.15288527628514967,
      "3": 0.1777134159895365,
      "4": 0.1721603265153812,
      "5": 0.1389966235377002,
      "6": 0.0935262957613954,
      "7": 0.05244710578519303,
      "8": 0.024511372555891624,
      "9": 0.009547112604132149,
      "10": 0.003099094141696441
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0903,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.006,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7253,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5269,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6406,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5269,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7253,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.064,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0903,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.7801177370117385,
      "home_runs": 5.705244873940792,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_PHI@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 6 - 4 SEA

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 74.8% → blended 65.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=208

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6153

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2659312427491995-3.516172139961567	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.74794,
    "sample_size": 208,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.65282,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6128,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.62,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6153
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022225325754660945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021956300077876797
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.021392758498210228
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021133810602607214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.020194941689728917
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05418127373795036,
      "1": 0.09158524202757523,
      "2": 0.1316245211507808,
      "3": 0.1608359508614106,
      "4": 0.16709539357696923,
      "5": 0.14759812624141802,
      "6": 0.11084911512837438,
      "7": 0.07078131666085051,
      "8": 0.03842731703015449,
      "9": 0.017737667500551297,
      "10": 0.006961261939824171,
      "11": 0.0023228141441412036
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02447553299105074,
      "1": 0.04251025209134678,
      "2": 0.06627667216362776,
      "3": 0.09275411760873123,
      "4": 0.11652287556491879,
      "5": 0.1313997927044174,
      "6": 0.13300980523094602,
      "7": 0.12085875772767196,
      "8": 0.09857756479531708,
      "9": 0.0721744587695053,
      "10": 0.047434516401004594,
      "11": 0.027984072012123686,
      "12": 0.014819475502405002,
      "13": 0.007044663410393284,
      "14": 0.0030060289103621273,
      "15": 0.0011514141161782
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0584,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6153,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6035,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6153,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.62,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0584,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_PIT@SD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 6 - 4 SD

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.3% · weight 50.0% · n=312

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0466

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.131507412757322-3.8714222911723835	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.07922,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53961,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46039,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53961
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.07922,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5396099999999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 312,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51145,
    "published_confidence": 0.53961,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0231,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.176,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0466
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026800638911796206
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025319930690431064
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02468411447885441
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024248085581193023
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.051188368446747644,
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      "3": 0.15563997407092867,
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      "9": 0.02079515038368832,
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      "11": 0.0030295149063672764
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    "away_distribution": {
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    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
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    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.131507412757322,
      "home_runs": 3.8714222911723835,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_TB@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 DET

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 68.8% → blended 63.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.6% · weight 50.0% · n=238

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0328

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.173392275850758-5.271838672695791	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.120018,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.560009,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.560009,
    "away_win_probability": 0.439991
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.120018,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.560009405,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.687526,
    "sample_size": 238,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5756,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.631563,
    "published_confidence": 0.560009,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0379,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0328
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03322931934002281
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03198927519607093
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031547416722010765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030370137435527727
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029346420680501105
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05420506646620065,
      "1": 0.09162352205439774,
      "2": 0.13167118113504428,
      "3": 0.16087595150312417,
      "4": 0.16711220663367612,
      "5": 0.14758488028407868,
      "6": 0.11081338181118895,
      "7": 0.07073904600954087,
      "8": 0.03839218559670408,
      "9": 0.017715080180405386,
      "10": 0.006949603966621528,
      "11": 0.0023178943590176264
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08751026160856389,
      "1": 0.1435944095690735,
      "2": 0.18877984653248778,
      "3": 0.19884435738954873,
      "4": 0.167807149689841,
      "5": 0.11346115395414394,
      "6": 0.06146437617140705,
      "7": 0.026677142362423637,
      "8": 0.009276724968040797,
      "9": 0.0025845777544700257
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0746,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.046,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0328,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.558,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0328,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.164,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0746,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "candidate",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c7e288f75d707709",
      "config_hash": "sha256:094c7e5cc53db7146b4d8767bb156c4be84dcaa677cf97909e0fcc95b20e9325",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "confidence.sparse_sample_max",
        "old_value": 10,
        "new_value": 12,
        "expected_metric": "calibration_error",
        "expected_direction": "decrease",
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calibration.bucket.0.60-0.65",
          "calibration.bucket.0.80-1.00"
        ],
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-26T16:44:07.715567+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-08-26T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.583058,
      "confidence": 0.583058,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "default-v1",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.583058,
      "confidence": 0.583058,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.687526,
        "sample_size": 238,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5756,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.631563
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.6,
        "final_confidence": 0.5811,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5811,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.954297,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.0,
        "calibration_sample_size": 238,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5756,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5703,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0328,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.581115,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.585,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.954297,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.583058,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.583058
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.8,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 70,
          "win_pct": 0.4696969696969697,
          "runs_scored": 592,
          "runs_allowed": 519,
          "run_differential": 73,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.553030303030303,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TB",
          "games": 132,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 54,
          "win_pct": 0.5909090909090909,
          "runs_scored": 592,
          "runs_allowed": 548,
          "run_differential": 44,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3333333333333333,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2197,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1212,
        "quality_edge": -0.0328,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0379,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0379,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.0328
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03198927519607093
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05420506646620065,
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          "3": 0.16087595150312417,
          "4": 0.16711220663367612,
          "5": 0.14758488028407868,
          "6": 0.11081338181118895,
          "7": 0.07073904600954087,
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          "9": 0.017715080180405386,
          "10": 0.006949603966621528,
          "11": 0.0023178943590176264
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08751026160856389,
          "1": 0.1435944095690735,
          "2": 0.18877984653248778,
          "3": 0.19884435738954873,
          "4": 0.167807149689841,
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          "6": 0.06146437617140705,
          "7": 0.026677142362423637,
          "8": 0.009276724968040797,
          "9": 0.0025845777544700257
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.173392275850758,
      "home_runs": 5.271838672695791,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260826_TEX@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreTEX 3 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 54.5% → blended 52.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 51.3% · weight 50.0% · n=312

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3349

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.296340565165196-4.832626512415082	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.067336,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533668,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.533668,
    "away_win_probability": 0.466332
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.067336,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.5336677774999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.54476,
    "sample_size": 312,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52878,
    "published_confidence": 0.533668,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6359,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3349
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0325008195047383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03142352644219993
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03080450704769708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029783441048651726
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02840013537229051
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06581321788581256,
      "1": 0.11011064518709258,
      "2": 0.1534476699582485,
      "3": 0.17811729801268078,
      "4": 0.17221330751671296,
      "5": 0.13868903508452898,
      "6": 0.09303199939026652,
      "7": 0.051980133674997334,
      "8": 0.02419119034599001,
      "9": 0.009377604115532519,
      "10": 0.003027898828137268
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06916791080784584,
      "1": 0.11539485878501073,
      "2": 0.15944625080865873,
      "3": 0.18246863088179371,
      "4": 0.17294506143644736,
      "5": 0.1357607305686721,
      "6": 0.08826453096102117,
      "7": 0.04752742869182783,
      "8": 0.021195734459491255,
      "9": 0.007828862599231285
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3349,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5337,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5675,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5337,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3349,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0633,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v10",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.296340565165196,
      "home_runs": 4.832626512415082,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260826	20260826_BAL@STL	BAL	71.6%	77.2%	53.8%	50.0%	6.0-2.0	8-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.772022, "sample_size": 169, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.655261, "published_confidence": 0.716151, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -12.0, "home_run_delta": -0.1, "away_run_delta": 0.1, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -12.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0861, "recent_quality_edge": -0.404, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0855 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03269848149788205 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03266740432899528 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030858750342315496 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030829421683855166 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.02861155556679908 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.11121306385032886, "1": 0.17852250699565675, "2": 0.21972877671072516, "3": 0.2073660657293167, "4": 0.15005318825708946, "5": 0.0832548526142436, "6": 0.03541854158104937, "7": 0.011553367335092565, "8": 0.0028896369264974457 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03859980861933532, "1": 0.06615983185046855, "2": 0.09912987600995606, "3": 0.12984213920031076, "4": 0.14867148863256177, "5": 0.14881292285593473, "6": 0.13021305627376445, "7": 0.09960229537727655, "8": 0.06660166562254408, "9": 0.03893155608747086, "10": 0.019893874042443693, "11": 0.008886646277019078, "12": 0.0034702227515584954, "13": 0.001184616399355695 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BAL 6 - 2 STL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0536, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0855, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_BOS@MIA	BOS	58.0%	69.8%	57.1%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	0-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.697582, "sample_size": 282, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5709, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.634241, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.045, "away_run_delta": 0.045, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7566, "recent_quality_edge": -0.576, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6934 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.027882577346657226 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027602272278556 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.025573013636234564 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02531592673785579 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024943222148910343 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0743795870848152, "1": 0.12350850270310176, "2": 0.1682707320627158, "3": 0.1881000647754032, "4": 0.17251940025747597, "5": 0.12982417394908782, "6": 0.0801570692302821, "7": 0.04060660914558213, "8": 0.016877971699858055, "9": 0.005755889091677835 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037484046348688134, "1": 0.06431279554915792, "2": 0.09665684145438119, "3": 0.1272483325372113, "4": 0.14674249214913293, "5": 0.14823268338556828, "6": 0.1311645096790888, "7": 0.10166535916697328, "8": 0.06902619723120043, "9": 0.04105245997798778, "10": 0.021386943114523202, "11": 0.009759836264014821, "12": 0.0039014014303391177, "13": 0.0013661017117328248 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 MIA", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 MIA", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0926, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.926, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6934, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_CHC@ARI	CHC	53.0%	62.7%	56.7%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	0-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.626635, "sample_size": 282, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.597018, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9549, "recent_quality_edge": -0.176, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.031462950330214144 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.029214762429088978 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02913069076964876 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029085019890139074 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02756119509215057 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08164513628816449, "1": 0.13468627931319171, "2": 0.1799222668891191, "3": 0.19463233540201713, "4": 0.17049576441356468, "5": 0.12094299412928101, "6": 0.06947304889147585, "7": 0.03231621750286526, "8": 0.01217287625794171, "9": 0.0037130809123790587 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04796399191520422, "1": 0.08152695546931732, "2": 0.11913555173856563, "3": 0.14967035518265098, "4": 0.16165325389137816, "5": 0.1501023063241022, "6": 0.11982419840839505, "7": 0.08223485902554524, "8": 0.048520093032121715, "9": 0.024611696466050256, "10": 0.010732866526418005, "11": 0.0040238720202509974 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.031, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.386, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6823, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_CIN@SF	SF	58.8%	67.2%	57.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	10-9	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0309)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 284, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.62145, "published_confidence": 0.588213, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1208, "recent_quality_edge": 0.208, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1513 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03303332353431378 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03296562967680403 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03066750047634561 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030604654804602366 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03058886383593717 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04798590175361874, "1": 0.0815625940774676, "2": 0.11918060465984645, "3": 0.14971224542561884, "4": 0.16167625795839033, "5": 0.15009711974038312, "6": 0.1197941618640341, "7": 0.08219324622358885, "8": 0.04848124882233926, "9": 0.02458377929420821, "10": 0.010716690377842267, "11": 0.004016149802662167 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09836755534291595, "1": 0.15980747106968568, "2": 0.20389901456828746, "3": 0.20431771461964052, "4": 0.16079397251398034, "5": 0.09938168477762094, "6": 0.048240943401159954, "7": 0.0183906922535663, "8": 0.0055062155575758545, "9": 0.0012947358955670853 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 SF", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0615, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.278, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1513, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_CLE@LAA	CLE	55.5%	61.6%	54.0%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-3	hit	Variance Applied (-0.2416)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.615816, "sample_size": 372, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5403, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578058, "published_confidence": 0.554534, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -2.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0692, "away_run_delta": 0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.688, "recent_quality_edge": -0.652, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6754 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03288110656030709 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0320517744421359 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030499833861575777 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029730562554544267 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028666287033527034 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08239788371647792, "1": 0.1358353697494167, "2": 0.18108636478308643, "3": 0.19522467184821823, "4": 0.17020006516395297, "5": 0.11999435404005089, "6": 0.0684128955071811, "7": 0.03154214335589635, "8": 0.011760356856378556, "9": 0.0035458949793409087 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.056213182054274835, "1": 0.09484852899408716, "2": 0.13557834719676443, "3": 0.16417891313990923, "4": 0.16842700386696635, "5": 0.1463771798129523, "6": 0.1077711044688547, "7": 0.06722001382358406, "8": 0.035519117504322004, "9": 0.015899850544285218, "10": 0.006029637772024273, "11": 0.0019371208219754632 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.039, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.002, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6754, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_COL@WAS	WAS	57.0%	75.3%	54.7%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	13-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.753045, "sample_size": 190, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.650222, "published_confidence": 0.57, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": 3.8, "home_run_delta": 0.1096, "away_run_delta": -0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3397, "recent_quality_edge": 0.316, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9814 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030034020311630917 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029682363199167096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029481914497704542 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029136721785753383 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026851653736602116 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03645817753890961, "1": 0.06261142994375865, "2": 0.09436524454182041, "3": 0.12481601050135456, "4": 0.14488662788539675, "5": 0.14759990994250138, "6": 0.13196041130047723, "7": 0.10353829492208369, "8": 0.07129484630294336, "9": 0.04308390362076124, "10": 0.022849238691576804, "11": 0.010634772490474138, "12": 0.004343946348220855, "13": 0.0015571859697213514 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09626531890801092, "1": 0.1566967086821598, "2": 0.20110014437495305, "3": 0.20348264659057644, "4": 0.16233226943542456, "5": 0.102104487580782, "6": 0.050634588790432485, "7": 0.019797585715150896, "8": 0.006102947919739105, "9": 0.0014833020027706547 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0341, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.386, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9814, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_HOU@NYY	NYY	53.9%	67.6%	57.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.676242, "sample_size": 282, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5709, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.623571, "published_confidence": 0.538667, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.05, "away_run_delta": -0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.1636, "recent_quality_edge": 0.468, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9201 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03101095899350239 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02995603492260523 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029478194877418522 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028475412043475794 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02784293624265165 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04309566236003524, "1": 0.07357441552561537, "2": 0.10894042098092202, "3": 0.1399008152621948, "4": 0.15581899866607957, "5": 0.15051838179607627, "6": 0.12610364496046175, "7": 0.09162937128852308, "8": 0.05774451542611843, "9": 0.03156136250692725, "10": 0.014961313160414517, "11": 0.006151098066631484 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.087784632487898, "1": 0.14400858364966612, "2": 0.18918228925723207, "3": 0.1990191135803596, "4": 0.16766071440989497, "5": 0.11310714775739193, "6": 0.061104191624980146, "7": 0.02643468677587881, "8": 0.00915797699702035, "9": 0.0025406634596779553 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0226, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.468, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9201, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_KC@TOR	KC	58.8%	70.2%	57.0%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	0-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.701727, "sample_size": 284, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5704, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.636064, "published_confidence": 0.588213, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0167, "away_run_delta": 0.0167, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.297, "recent_quality_edge": -0.692, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0492 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03277846832952856 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0324581163038101 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.03059884019318995 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030299790208853324 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03022321684600951 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09668876957577513, "1": 0.1573244144167176, "2": 0.20166885894894507, "3": 0.20365927105061846, "4": 0.1620287776673124, "5": 0.10155533738089818, "6": 0.050145963203377664, "7": 0.01950706040663402, "8": 0.005978198163739308, "9": 0.0014433491859821106 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.047304519874840426, "1": 0.08045361929445732, "2": 0.11777601992038295, "3": 0.1484008888478133, "4": 0.16094758741123866, "5": 0.15024526030825655, "6": 0.12072172444677974, "7": 0.0834907612837183, "8": 0.04970038490849682, "9": 0.025465336765492803, "10": 0.011230715769293374, "11": 0.0042631811692297695 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0214, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.042, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0492, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_LAD@ATL	LAD	54.9%	56.4%	53.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	5-6	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1644)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 450, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5333, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54845, "published_confidence": 0.548669, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 2.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0562, "away_run_delta": -0.0562, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3295, "recent_quality_edge": -0.616, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4298 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.032318209593765884 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031845064694352686 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029276011757747657 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02912549497535532 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028847405228721024 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07715990658351425, "1": 0.12780439557286402, "2": 0.1728186187303844, "3": 0.1907769537753244, "4": 0.17193010622929547, "5": 0.12649361214313376, "6": 0.07597590792873009, "7": 0.037254080124604426, "8": 0.014912911179348391, "9": 0.004873507732800745 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05795167282366463, "1": 0.09763117640001055, "2": 0.13891162932731765, "3": 0.16692301697958872, "4": 0.169403111613925, "5": 0.14519580812219404, "6": 0.1051028059433105, "7": 0.0642542827873708, "8": 0.03317549315448044, "9": 0.014466392089317815, "10": 0.005327587773667849, "11": 0.0016570229851519589 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0853, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.441, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4298, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_MIL@NYM	MIL	53.0%	59.1%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	8-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.414)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.59115, "sample_size": 366, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5492, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.570175, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.25, "home_run_delta": -0.0062, "away_run_delta": 0.0062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.7462, "recent_quality_edge": -0.216, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.2106 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030710958580695908 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02879580789023859 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.028244815615544042 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02805722491238558 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027419432139462206 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07394290699383432, "1": 0.12283171771049159, "2": 0.16754635555633368, "3": 0.1876592177279874, "4": 0.1725898587423425, "5": 0.13033801442064202, "6": 0.08082344981205622, "7": 0.04115419606275935, "8": 0.01720684777281211, "9": 0.0059074352007408 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.049979334712149416, "1": 0.08479941690727946, "2": 0.12324874272933455, "3": 0.15344734055098855, "4": 0.1636528114766605, "5": 0.149511573436561, "6": 0.11700741635099972, "7": 0.07844029243438794, "8": 0.04504558744280805, "9": 0.022159121682798825, "10": 0.009337703211682478, "11": 0.003370659064349689 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 NYM", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0082, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.216, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2106, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_MIN@OAK	MIN	52.7%	51.0%	51.3%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 312, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51145, "published_confidence": 0.526935, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1504, "recent_quality_edge": 0.064, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7253 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03235866206609173 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03134753668359646 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030733817405583 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02977346426068818 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028233811637898495 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06883699935819841, "1": 0.1148770200188617, "2": 0.15887270795335373, "3": 0.18208339469428106, "4": 0.17294033337017484, "5": 0.13612163241797243, "6": 0.08878976615107194, "7": 0.047995838391281555, "8": 0.021500529678175135, "9": 0.00798177796662924 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06549852019699431, "1": 0.10961485662692945, "2": 0.15288527628514967, "3": 0.1777134159895365, "4": 0.1721603265153812, "5": 0.1389966235377002, "6": 0.0935262957613954, "7": 0.05244710578519303, "8": 0.024511372555891624, "9": 0.009547112604132149, "10": 0.003099094141696441 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 OAK", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0903, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.006, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7253, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_PHI@SEA	PHI	53.0%	74.8%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	6-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.74794, "sample_size": 208, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.65282, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 5.0, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6128, "recent_quality_edge": -0.62, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6153 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022225325754660945 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021956300077876797 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021392758498210228 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021133810602607214 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.020194941689728917 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05418127373795036, "1": 0.09158524202757523, "2": 0.1316245211507808, "3": 0.1608359508614106, "4": 0.16709539357696923, "5": 0.14759812624141802, "6": 0.11084911512837438, "7": 0.07078131666085051, "8": 0.03842731703015449, "9": 0.017737667500551297, "10": 0.006961261939824171, "11": 0.0023228141441412036 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02447553299105074, "1": 0.04251025209134678, "2": 0.06627667216362776, "3": 0.09275411760873123, "4": 0.11652287556491879, "5": 0.1313997927044174, "6": 0.13300980523094602, "7": 0.12085875772767196, "8": 0.09857756479531708, "9": 0.0721744587695053, "10": 0.047434516401004594, "11": 0.027984072012123686, "12": 0.014819475502405002, "13": 0.007044663410393284, "14": 0.0030060289103621273, "15": 0.0011514141161782 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 SEA", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 SEA", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0584, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6153, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_PIT@SD	PIT	54.0%	51.0%	51.3%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	0-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 312, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.51145, "published_confidence": 0.53961, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0231, "recent_quality_edge": 0.176, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0466 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026800638911796206 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025319930690431064 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02497137393516303 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02468411447885441 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024248085581193023 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.051188368446747644, "1": 0.08675707492580165, "2": 0.12568637149830375, "3": 0.15563997407092867, "4": 0.16474179160737937, "5": 0.14905141160409277, "6": 0.1152704731517015, "7": 0.07619908071748856, "8": 0.04305574039094474, "9": 0.02079515038368832, "10": 0.008585048296555901, "11": 0.0030295149063672764 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04897209633025746, "1": 0.08316533083673411, "2": 0.1212008425508911, "3": 0.1515788658816824, "4": 0.16268269666308346, "5": 0.14983517077247036, "6": 0.11842840128157947, "7": 0.08032813075540468, "8": 0.04675727045055115, "9": 0.02335610047362412, "10": 0.010012008606378362, "11": 0.0036830853973434242 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 4 SD", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0882, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.106, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0466, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_TB@DET	DET	56.0%	68.8%	57.6%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-0	miss	Variance Applied (-0.0984)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.687526, "sample_size": 238, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5756, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.631563, "published_confidence": 0.560009, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0379, "recent_quality_edge": -0.164, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0328 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03322931934002281 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03198927519607093 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.031547416722010765 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030370137435527727 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029346420680501105 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05420506646620065, "1": 0.09162352205439774, "2": 0.13167118113504428, "3": 0.16087595150312417, "4": 0.16711220663367612, "5": 0.14758488028407868, "6": 0.11081338181118895, "7": 0.07073904600954087, "8": 0.03839218559670408, "9": 0.017715080180405386, "10": 0.006949603966621528, "11": 0.0023178943590176264 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08751026160856389, "1": 0.1435944095690735, "2": 0.18877984653248778, "3": 0.19884435738954873, "4": 0.167807149689841, "5": 0.11346115395414394, "6": 0.06146437617140705, "7": 0.026677142362423637, "8": 0.009276724968040797, "9": 0.0025845777544700257 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0746, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.046, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0328, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260826	20260826_TEX@CHW	CHW	53.4%	54.5%	51.3%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-10	hit	Variance Applied (0.4637)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.54476, "sample_size": 312, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5128, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52878, "published_confidence": 0.533668, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6359, "recent_quality_edge": -0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3349 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0325008195047383 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03142352644219993 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03080450704769708 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029783441048651726 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02840013537229051 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06581321788581256, "1": 0.11011064518709258, "2": 0.1534476699582485, "3": 0.17811729801268078, "4": 0.17221330751671296, "5": 0.13868903508452898, "6": 0.09303199939026652, "7": 0.051980133674997334, "8": 0.02419119034599001, "9": 0.009377604115532519, "10": 0.003027898828137268 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06916791080784584, "1": 0.11539485878501073, "2": 0.15944625080865873, "3": 0.18246863088179371, "4": 0.17294506143644736, "5": 0.1357607305686721, "6": 0.08826453096102117, "7": 0.04752742869182783, "8": 0.021195734459491255, "9": 0.007828862599231285 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0633, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3349, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.7333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.0667 }
R	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.9667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.6333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.5333, "mae_innings": 1.1778, "bias_outs": 0.7333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260826

20260826_BAL@STL

away

Kyle Bradish

True

5.2

4.1

-4

2/9

0/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.699519230769231,
      "WHIP": 1.3774038461538463,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.547,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0668,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0057,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.0243,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 437.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6184,
            "WHIP": 1.6184,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51316,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35526,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2775,
            "WHIP": 1.1965,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36416,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86705,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32948,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76301,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06936
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 587.0,
            "Pitches": 2302.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.28,
            "R": 2.64,
            "H": 5.24,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.16,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.48,
            "Pitches": 92.08
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6995,
            "WHIP": 1.3774,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43269,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93029,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10817
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.416,
        "predicted_H": 5.61,
        "predicted_BB": 1.945,
        "predicted_SO": 4.377,
        "predicted_HR": 0.574,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0555,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4092
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
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          "final": 1.8207,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.61,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
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          "final": 1.1273,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.377,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0555,
          "final": 4.0555,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4092,
          "final": 1.4092,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 44,
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        "K9": 6.867052023121387,
        "HR9": 0.6242774566473988,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8710908021655182,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680694",
      "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.1333,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.1333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.1333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4848,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 619.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1742,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5152,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 1.0104,
        "defense_index": 0.953,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0344
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1053,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.406,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5113,
        "offense_index": 0.9859,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0512
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0168,
        "offense_edge": 0.0104,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0141,
        "defense_strength": -0.047,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0094,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9998,
        "run_prevention": 1.0016,
        "strikeout": 1.0016
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680694",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680694",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.767,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9665,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1061,
            "command_and_miss": -0.095,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0373
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680694",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.5144544635341,
              "release_spin_rate": 2427.3950290002913,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.5144544635341,
                "release_spin_rate": 2427.3950290002913,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5145,
              "release_spin_rate": 2427.395,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0373,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2666,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0668,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0057,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9949,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0243,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680694",
            "espn_id": 4311625,
            "player_name": "Kyle Bradish",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 93,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 93,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 275,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 33,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 3.6995,
              "era_rank": 31.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 12.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 138.2,
              "ip_rank": 40,
              "h_value": 131.0,
              "h_rank": 28,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 60.0,
              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 129.0,
              "k_rank": 41,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.372596,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3774,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 1.65,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0243,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_BAL@STL

home

Michael McGreevy

True

5.1

5.0

-1

3/10

1/2

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.53883495145631,
      "WHIP": 1.2087378640776698,
      "IP": 137.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.493,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5909,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0502,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 1.1103,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 19.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.6087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21739,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8333,
            "WHIP": 1.2963,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42593,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.1,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 95.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 558.0,
            "Pitches": 2225.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.16,
            "R": 2.32,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.44,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.72,
            "BF": 22.32,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5388,
            "WHIP": 1.2087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3932,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9466,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26214,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69175,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13107
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.603,
        "predicted_H": 5.372,
        "predicted_BB": 1.7,
        "predicted_SO": 4.234,
        "predicted_HR": 0.642,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.66,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4066
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.603,
          "final": 1.929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.372,
          "final": 4.3747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.7,
          "final": 1.4057,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.234,
          "final": 5.8173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.642,
          "final": 0.7925,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.66,
          "final": 4.66,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4066,
          "final": 1.4066,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.8333333333333335,
        "WHIP": 1.2962962962962963,
        "K9": 7.0,
        "HR9": 1.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9361210419428678,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1053,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.406,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5113,
        "offense_index": 0.9859,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0512
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4848,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 619.0,
        "run_differential": -23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1742,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5152,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6894,
        "offense_index": 1.0104,
        "defense_index": 0.953,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0344
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0168,
        "offense_edge": -0.0141,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0104,
        "defense_strength": -0.0094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.047,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9986,
        "run_prevention": 1.0034,
        "strikeout": 0.9987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 511.0,
            "k_percent": 17.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.926,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8424,
            "whiff_percent": 19.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6027,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4764,
            "regression_edge": -1.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8286,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1549
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.006727677546,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08161246517682,
                "release_spin_rate": 2204.006727677546,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0816,
              "release_spin_rate": 2204.0067,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1549,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1065,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5909,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0502,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 1.1103,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.041,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_id": 4424141,
            "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 64,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 64,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 275,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 33,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 15,
              "era_value": 3.5388,
              "era_rank": 26.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 123,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 19,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 137.1,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 29,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 70,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 39,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 90,
              "k_value": 95.0,
              "k_rank": 96,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.225728,
              "k_per_9_rank": 60.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2087,
              "whip_rank": 30.0,
              "war_value": 2.07,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0502,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0502,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1103,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_BAL@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_BOS@MIA

away

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-1

5/7

3/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.790865384615385,
      "WHIP": 1.1610576923076923,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.128,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1337,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9552,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.128,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9803,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_id": 32082,
            "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 20,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 20,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 299,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 2.7908,
              "era_rank": 10.0,
              "w_value": 16.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 219,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 138.2,
              "ip_rank": 40,
              "h_value": 125.0,
              "h_rank": 48,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 121,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 90,
              "k_value": 123.0,
              "k_rank": 50,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.983173,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.161,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 3.32,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9803,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_BOS@MIA

home

Ryan Gusto

True

5.1

5.2

-5

9/4

0/3

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.3352601156069366,
      "IP": 57.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.028,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2382,
      "sample_weight": 0.948,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9659,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.324,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 328,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.6,
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            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "Pitches": 70.8
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3521,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16901,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21127
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.1,
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            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 156.0,
            "Pitches": 547.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 54.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.211,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.01835,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19266,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85321,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16514
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
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            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 255.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.6471,
            "R": 1.8235,
            "H": 3.6471,
            "BB": 0.8824,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.4706,
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            "Pitches": 54.1176
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3699,
            "WHIP": 1.3353,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48555,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07514,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26012,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88439,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13873
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.932,
        "predicted_H": 4.421,
        "predicted_BB": 0.966,
        "predicted_SO": 3.605,
        "predicted_HR": 0.711,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.226,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3092
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.932,
          "final": 3.3004,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.421,
          "final": 6.4634,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.966,
          "final": 0.5351,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.226,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.3092,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 31,
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        "ERA": 3.9633027522935778,
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        "K9": 7.678899082568807,
        "HR9": 1.4862385321100917,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9486104235262861,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 133,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1128,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2331,
        "offense_index": 0.9733,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
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        },
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7955,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5455,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.75,
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        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.248
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2309,
        "offense_edge": -0.0267,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.018,
        "defense_strength": 0.0549,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1907,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3849,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1786,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0449
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0468,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.1114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0449,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3204,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2382,
          "sample_weight": 0.948,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0202,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9659,
          "walk_factor": 0.9374,
          "homer_factor": 1.0648,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 328,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 328,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 405,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 149,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 173,
              "era_value": 4.3699,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 507,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 219,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 252,
              "ip_value": 57.2,
              "ip_rank": 216,
              "h_value": 62.0,
              "h_rank": 167,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 192,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 191,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 352,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 260,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.9595375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3352,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.22,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0191,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0191,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9407,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0614,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9677,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_BOS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CHC@ARI

away

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

3/3

1/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.153846153846154,
      "WHIP": 1.2417582417582418,
      "IP": 91.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.688,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3905,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0332,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0706,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 305,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 135.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7812,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 260.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.754,
            "WHIP": 1.1872,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41711,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8984,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57754,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19251
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 381.0,
            "Pitches": 1417.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.625,
            "R": 2.8125,
            "H": 5.3125,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.4375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 23.8125,
            "Pitches": 88.5625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.2418,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78022,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.971,
        "predicted_H": 5.689,
        "predicted_BB": 2.026,
        "predicted_SO": 4.119,
        "predicted_HR": 1.202,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3462,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.254
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.971,
          "final": 2.0829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.689,
          "final": 4.4773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.026,
          "final": 1.5637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.119,
          "final": 4.516,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.202,
          "final": 1.111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3462,
          "final": 4.3462,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.254,
          "final": 1.254,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.754010695187166,
        "WHIP": 1.1871657754010696,
        "K9": 5.197860962566845,
        "HR9": 1.732620320855615,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9244689821290434,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5714,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9098,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2256,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3158,
        "offense_index": 1.1661,
        "defense_index": 1.0383,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1374
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5263,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0226,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5113,
        "offense_index": 1.0118,
        "defense_index": 0.9933,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0251
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1123,
        "offense_edge": 0.1661,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0118,
        "defense_strength": 0.0383,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0067,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0052,
        "run_prevention": 0.9924,
        "strikeout": 1.0024
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 354.0,
            "k_percent": 18.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2424,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0022,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.418,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2586,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2572
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.25414106885589,
              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.25414106885589,
                "release_spin_rate": 2219.1498721779217,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2541,
              "release_spin_rate": 2219.1499,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2572,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8375,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3905,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0332,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0706,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_id": 34401,
            "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 305,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 305,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 419,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 117,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 83,
              "era_value": 4.1538,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 47,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 301,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 91.0,
              "ip_rank": 127,
              "h_value": 85.0,
              "h_rank": 123,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 130,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 161,
              "k_value": 71.0,
              "k_rank": 159,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0219784,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2417,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0332,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0332,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0706,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9651,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CHC@ARI

home

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

6.1

7.0

-3

6/2

4/3

3/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6129032258064515,
      "WHIP": 1.206451612903226,
      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.962,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2785,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0237,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9463,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 1.0137,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 130.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 103.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5052,
            "WHIP": 1.0825,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27835,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92784,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15464,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03093
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 963.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 96.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.15,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.0,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 635.0,
            "Pitches": 2470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7308,
            "R": 1.8846,
            "H": 5.3077,
            "BB": 1.8846,
            "SO": 4.2308,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 24.4231,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.2065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89032,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31613,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09032
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.084,
        "predicted_H": 5.903,
        "predicted_BB": 1.388,
        "predicted_SO": 4.619,
        "predicted_HR": 0.463,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0353,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1797
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.084,
          "final": 2.467,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.903,
          "final": 5.9436,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.388,
          "final": 2.4802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.619,
          "final": 3.5239,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.463,
          "final": 0.2694,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0353,
          "final": 3.0353,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1797,
          "final": 1.1797,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.15,
        "WHIP": 1.2,
        "K9": 6.0,
        "HR9": 0.75,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8568386345354604,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5263,
        "runs_scored": 603.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0226,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5338,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5113,
        "offense_index": 1.0118,
        "defense_index": 0.9933,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0251
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5714,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 121.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9098,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2256,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3158,
        "offense_index": 1.1661,
        "defense_index": 1.0383,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1374
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1123,
        "offense_edge": 0.0118,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1661,
        "defense_strength": -0.0067,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0383,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9887,
        "run_prevention": 1.0329,
        "strikeout": 0.9833
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 610.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5022,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4709,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1021,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4621,
            "regression_edge": -0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6714,
            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0858
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 103,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 103,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31573743838237,
                "release_spin_rate": 2174.324470429921,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3157,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.3245,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0858,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6128,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2785,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0237,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9463,
          "walk_factor": 0.97,
          "homer_factor": 1.0137,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.033,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_id": 32675,
            "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 6,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 6,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 15,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 2.6129,
              "era_rank": 7.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 6,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 162,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 155.0,
              "ip_rank": 11,
              "h_value": 138.0,
              "h_rank": 17,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 110,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 23,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 74,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.387097,
              "k_per_9_rank": 181.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2064,
              "whip_rank": 29.0,
              "war_value": 4.86,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0137,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9463,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 123,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CHC@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CIN@SF

away

Nick Lodolo

True

4.1

4.0

-1

5/6

0/2

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.04,
      "WHIP": 1.52,
      "IP": 75.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8478,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0721,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9566,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.1084,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.369,
      "xwoba": 0.382,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 188,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.6286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55714,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9437,
            "WHIP": 1.6056,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5493,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22535,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78169,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 75.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 338.0,
            "Pitches": 1321.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.5333,
            "BB": 2.0667,
            "SO": 3.9333,
            "HR": 0.8667,
            "BF": 22.5333,
            "Pitches": 88.0667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.04,
            "WHIP": 1.52,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17333
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.554,
        "predicted_H": 5.428,
        "predicted_BB": 1.811,
        "predicted_SO": 3.799,
        "predicted_HR": 0.794,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8726,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5348
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.554,
          "final": 3.2128,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.428,
          "final": 5.233,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.811,
          "final": 0.9859,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.799,
          "final": 4.3462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.794,
          "final": 1.3435,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8726,
          "final": 4.8726,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.5348,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0687664514368689,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "666157",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 538.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7594,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0451,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8045,
        "offense_index": 0.9027,
        "defense_index": 0.9326,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1919
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4091,
        "runs_scored": 531.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.553,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0227,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5758,
        "offense_index": 0.8978,
        "defense_index": 0.9793,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1801
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0118,
        "offense_edge": -0.0973,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1022,
        "defense_strength": -0.0674,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0207,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0016,
        "run_prevention": 0.991,
        "strikeout": 1.0078
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 307.0,
            "k_percent": 17.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.369,
            "xwoba": 0.382,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.1812,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7617,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2404,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4443,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0064
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
                "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0064,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0458,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8478,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0721,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9566,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.1084,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_id": 42433,
            "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 188,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 188,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 432,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 122,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 5.04,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 226,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 219,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 75.0,
              "ip_rank": 155,
              "h_value": 83.0,
              "h_rank": 126,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 130,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 107,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 134,
              "k_value": 59.0,
              "k_rank": 203,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0800004,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35.0,
              "whip_value": 1.52,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0721,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0721,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1084,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9566,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CIN@SF

home

Logan Webb

True

6.0

-1

4/5

2/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.7482352941176473,
      "WHIP": 1.1082352941176472,
      "IP": 141.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.159,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0767,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
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      "homer_factor": 0.967,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.279,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 5.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      },
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      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
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        },
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "source": "form_only"
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 6.48,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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    },
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        "recent": {
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 538.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7594,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1022,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657277",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657277",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.303,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.3295,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.316,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657277",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 94,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2029.9391,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Logan Webb",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
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              "w_rank": 47,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 38,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 141.2,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 53,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 53,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 103,
              "k_value": 112.0,
              "k_rank": 67,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.115294,
              "k_per_9_rank": 48.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1082,
              "whip_rank": 14.0,
              "war_value": 1.94,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.967,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9594,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CLE@LAA

away

Joey Cantillo

True

4.2

6.0

2/2

0/7

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7289002557544753,
      "WHIP": 1.4501278772378516,
      "IP": 130.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.827,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1501,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9872,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
      "walk_factor": 1.04,
      "homer_factor": 1.0199,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.5,
      "bb_percent": 11.2,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 30.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 126,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 130.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.729,
      "season_WHIP": 1.45,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 89.0,
            "Pitches": 377.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 75.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1774,
            "WHIP": 1.4032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24194,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91935,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 803.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 80.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4511,
            "WHIP": 1.6466,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38346,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54135,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06767
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.1,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 144.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 564.0,
            "Pitches": 2265.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 5.3333,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 20.8889,
            "Pitches": 83.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7289,
            "WHIP": 1.4501,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41432,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48338,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10486,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11509
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.543,
        "predicted_H": 4.327,
        "predicted_BB": 2.108,
        "predicted_SO": 5.422,
        "predicted_HR": 0.433,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1792,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4735
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.543,
          "final": 1.7331,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.327,
          "final": 3.359,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.108,
          "final": 1.2311,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.422,
          "final": 5.2465,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.433,
          "final": 0.6689,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1792,
          "final": 3.1792,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4735,
          "final": 1.4735,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.4511278195488724,
        "WHIP": 1.6466165413533835,
        "K9": 11.977443609022558,
        "HR9": 0.6090225563909775,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9018809277685431,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676282",
      "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 544.0,
        "run_differential": -5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0376,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0902,
        "offense_index": 0.9044,
        "defense_index": 1.0956,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
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          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1036
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 133,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 545.0,
        "runs_allowed": 619.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5564,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0977,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6541,
        "offense_index": 0.9144,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1959
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0956,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0956,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0372,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0183,
        "run_prevention": 0.9618,
        "strikeout": 1.0158
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 538.0,
            "k_percent": 25.5,
            "bb_percent": 11.2,
            "woba": 0.331,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6694,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9114,
            "whiff_percent": 30.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0089,
            "command_and_miss": 0.395,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7714,
            "bb_edge": -0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2739
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.95762368108332,
              "release_spin_rate": 2024.6855383454645,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.95762368108332,
                "release_spin_rate": 2024.6855383454645,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.9576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2024.6855,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2739,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9561,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1501,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9872,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
          "walk_factor": 1.04,
          "homer_factor": 1.0199,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676282",
            "espn_id": 42488,
            "player_name": "Joey Cantillo",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 126,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 126,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 223,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 3,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 103,
              "era_value": 3.7289,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 130.1,
              "ip_rank": 57,
              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 45,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 70,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 63.0,
              "bb_rank": 8,
              "k_value": 144.0,
              "k_rank": 25,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.943734,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4501,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.04,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0199,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 65,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_CLE@LAA

home

Grayson Rodriguez

True

5.0

5.2

-3

6/7

0/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.5303030303030303,
      "IP": 66.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.714,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6889,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0586,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.1449,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.361,
      "xwoba": 0.364,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 817,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 852.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.25,
            "WHIP": 1.3958,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39583,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.0,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 71.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 298.0,
            "Pitches": 1207.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3571,
            "R": 3.7143,
            "H": 5.0714,
            "BB": 2.1429,
            "SO": 4.3571,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 21.2857,
            "Pitches": 86.2143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4091,
            "WHIP": 1.5303,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71212,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07576,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92424,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15152
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.537,
        "predicted_H": 4.57,
        "predicted_BB": 1.995,
        "predicted_SO": 4.986,
        "predicted_HR": 0.647,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5896,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3195
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.537,
          "final": 3.2117,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.57,
          "final": 5.2295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.995,
          "final": 1.0749,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.986,
          "final": 4.5313,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.647,
          "final": 0.3486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5896,
          "final": 4.5896,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3195,
          "final": 1.3195,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.25,
        "WHIP": 1.3958333333333333,
        "K9": 8.25,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0979844678687938,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 545.0,
        "runs_allowed": 619.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5564,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0977,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6541,
        "offense_index": 0.9144,
        "defense_index": 0.9628,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1959
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 544.0,
        "run_differential": -5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0376,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0902,
        "offense_index": 0.9044,
        "defense_index": 1.0956,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1036
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2995,
        "offense_edge": -0.0856,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0956,
        "defense_strength": -0.0372,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0956,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9907,
        "run_prevention": 1.0034,
        "strikeout": 0.9987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 259.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.361,
            "xwoba": 0.364,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8677,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1608,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.1242,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1964,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0035
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.90981092943103,
                "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226176168993,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9098,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.6226,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0035,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0248,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6889,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0586,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.1449,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_id": 41196,
            "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 817,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 817,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 453,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 136,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 153,
              "era_value": 6.409,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 175,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 123,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 66.0,
              "ip_rank": 178,
              "h_value": 71.0,
              "h_rank": 151,
              "er_value": 47.0,
              "er_rank": 102,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 140,
              "k_value": 61.0,
              "k_rank": 195,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.318182,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5303,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.06,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0586,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0586,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1449,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_CLE@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_COL@WAS

away

Tanner Gordon

True

4.0

7.0

-2

6/6

4/0

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.752173913043478,
      "WHIP": 1.4869565217391303,
      "IP": 76.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.722,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3602,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0306,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 1.1076,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.382,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 302,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 286.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 57.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2258,
            "WHIP": 1.4032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25806,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14516,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72581,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14516
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 197.0,
            "Pitches": 676.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.7,
            "Pitches": 67.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6842,
            "WHIP": 1.4887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "H_per_IP": 1.30827,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18045,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69925,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22556
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 76.2,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 338.0,
            "Pitches": 1193.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.7222,
            "R": 2.8333,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.8333,
            "SO": 3.5556,
            "HR": 0.8889,
            "BF": 18.7778,
            "Pitches": 66.2778
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7522,
            "WHIP": 1.487,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63913,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83478,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2087
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.515,
        "predicted_H": 5.212,
        "predicted_BB": 0.905,
        "predicted_SO": 3.359,
        "predicted_HR": 0.761,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2773,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4265
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.515,
          "final": 2.2874,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.212,
          "final": 4.2346,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 0.905,
          "final": 2.2725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.359,
          "final": 2.7585,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.761,
          "final": 0.8666,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2773,
          "final": 5.2773,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4265,
          "final": 1.4265,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.68421052631579,
        "WHIP": 1.4887218045112784,
        "K9": 6.2932330827067675,
        "HR9": 2.030075187969925,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1491553638587688,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "685299",
      "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 51,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.3864,
        "runs_scored": 623.0,
        "runs_allowed": 767.0,
        "run_differential": -144.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0909,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7197,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8106,
        "offense_index": 1.057,
        "defense_index": 0.7685,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3359
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 134,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4627,
        "runs_scored": 696.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": 18.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1343,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.194,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0597,
        "offense_index": 1.1632,
        "defense_index": 0.8825,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1202
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2157,
        "offense_edge": 0.057,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1632,
        "defense_strength": -0.2315,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1175,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9779,
        "run_prevention": 1.06,
        "strikeout": 0.9805
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "685299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "685299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 306.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.382,
            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.1412,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6926,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8425,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0893,
            "regression_edge": 1.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0651
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 54,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 54,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.68522008751086,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.693328889431,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 54,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.68522008751086,
                "release_spin_rate": 2169.693328889431,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6852,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.6933,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0651,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4651,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3602,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0306,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
          "walk_factor": 0.904,
          "homer_factor": 1.1076,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.049,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "685299",
            "espn_id": 4415658,
            "player_name": "Tanner Gordon",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 302,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 302,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 387,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 196,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 5.7521,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 507,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 162,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 76.2,
              "ip_rank": 150,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 99,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 90,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 65,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 352,
              "k_value": 64.0,
              "k_rank": 179,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5130434,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4869,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0306,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0306,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1076,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_COL@WAS

home

Matt Waldron

True

3.2

2.0

-5

-3

3/2

1/1

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.54054054054054,
      "WHIP": 1.6216216216216217,
      "IP": 37.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.023,
      "sample_weight": 0.632,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.002,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9563,
      "walk_factor": 0.9583,
      "homer_factor": 0.9861,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.392,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 16.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 791,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.426,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5976,
        "prior_weight": 0.4024
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663362",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 114.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.0,
            "Pitches": 22.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5263,
            "WHIP": 1.8947,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "H_per_IP": 1.57895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 303.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 8.3,
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              "release_spin_rate": 1585.7542,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2074,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.4816,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.023,
          "sample_weight": 0.632,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.002,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9563,
          "walk_factor": 0.9583,
          "homer_factor": 0.9861,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.092,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663362",
            "espn_id": 4020158,
            "player_name": "Matt Waldron",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 791,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 791,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 453,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 245,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 7.5405,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 387,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 301,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 252,
              "ip_value": 37.0,
              "ip_rank": 365,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 219,
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": 172,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 212,
              "bb_value": 10.0,
              "bb_rank": 455,
              "k_value": 31.0,
              "k_rank": 390,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.54054,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.6216,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.79,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0013,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0013,
            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9736,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9724,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 71,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_COL@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_HOU@NYY

away

Peter Lambert

True

5.1

5.2

6/7

2/3

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6784741144414173,
      "WHIP": 1.2016348773841963,
      "IP": 122.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.561,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2571,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 0.9681,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 35,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2877,
            "WHIP": 1.5205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69863,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10959,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06849,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 935.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1925,
            "WHIP": 1.2484,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46584,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87578,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37267,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09317
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 122.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 99.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 516.0,
            "Pitches": 2064.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2727,
            "R": 2.3182,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.1818,
            "SO": 5.4545,
            "HR": 0.5455,
            "BF": 23.4545,
            "Pitches": 93.8182
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6785,
            "WHIP": 1.2016,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40872,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39237,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98093,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09809
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.887,
        "predicted_H": 5.102,
        "predicted_BB": 2.048,
        "predicted_SO": 5.394,
        "predicted_HR": 0.446,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9351,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.358
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.887,
          "final": 2.0789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.102,
          "final": 5.4866,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.048,
          "final": 2.0274,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.394,
          "final": 5.2253,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.446,
          "final": 0.255,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9351,
          "final": 4.9351,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.358,
          "final": 1.358,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.192546583850932,
        "WHIP": 1.2484472049689441,
        "K9": 9.391304347826088,
        "HR9": 0.8385093167701864,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9753363053429138,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663567",
      "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3182,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5833,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9015,
        "offense_index": 1.0264,
        "defense_index": 0.911,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0742
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5649,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 488.0,
        "run_differential": 98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7481,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4733,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7252,
        "offense_index": 1.0018,
        "defense_index": 1.1987,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1823
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2565,
        "offense_edge": 0.0264,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0018,
        "defense_strength": -0.089,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1987,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.987,
        "run_prevention": 1.022,
        "strikeout": 0.9922
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663567",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663567",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 23.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4075,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.621,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4144,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0936,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0271
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663567",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.36448787171314,
                "release_spin_rate": 2218.202787194397,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3645,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.2028,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0271,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1933,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2571,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9781,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 0.9681,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663567",
            "espn_id": 39898,
            "player_name": "Peter Lambert",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 35,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 35,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 335,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 69,
              "era_value": 3.6784,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 47,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 122.1,
              "ip_rank": 77,
              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 99,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 84,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 119,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 54,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.828338,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2016,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9781,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9681,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_HOU@NYY

home

Elmer Rodríguez

True

4.1

6.0

5/3

3/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.7647058823529411,
      "IP": 17.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.25,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2575,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0219,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
      "walk_factor": 1.0369,
      "homer_factor": 0.9975,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 12.0,
      "bb_percent": 13.3,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.366,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695684",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 318.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 79.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05882
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 318.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 20.75,
            "Pitches": 79.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05882
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 318.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.25,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.25,
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            "Pitches": 79.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05882
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.32,
        "predicted_H": 4.691,
        "predicted_BB": 2.223,
        "predicted_SO": 3.555,
        "predicted_HR": 0.486,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6211,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5301
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.32,
          "final": 2.1329,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.691,
          "final": 3.7022,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.223,
          "final": 2.6773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.555,
          "final": 3.8152,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.486,
          "final": 0.2018,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6211,
          "final": 4.6211,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5301,
          "final": 1.5301,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.0,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 19,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 4.764705882352941,
        "WHIP": 1.7647058823529411,
        "K9": 5.294117647058823,
        "HR9": 0.5294117647058824,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-06-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0291972067515134,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695684",
      "player_name": "Elmer Rodr\u00edguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
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              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
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          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.5649,
        "runs_scored": 586.0,
        "runs_allowed": 488.0,
        "run_differential": 98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7481,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4733,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7252,
        "offense_index": 1.0018,
        "defense_index": 1.1987,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1823
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3182,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5833,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9015,
        "offense_index": 1.0264,
        "defense_index": 0.911,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0742
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2565,
        "offense_edge": 0.0018,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0264,
        "defense_strength": 0.1987,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.089,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0152,
        "run_prevention": 0.9715,
        "strikeout": 1.0056
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695684",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695684",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 64.0,
            "k_percent": 12.0,
            "bb_percent": 13.3,
            "woba": 0.35,
            "xwoba": 0.366,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2997,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4961,
            "whiff_percent": 27.0,
            "swing_percent": 39.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5895,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7579,
            "regression_edge": -0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.5714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0073
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695684",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.97847960992908,
              "release_spin_rate": 1931.3415780141843,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 79,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.97847960992908,
                "release_spin_rate": 1931.3415780141843,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9785,
              "release_spin_rate": 1931.3416,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0073,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0522,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2575,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0219,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9789,
          "walk_factor": 1.0369,
          "homer_factor": 0.9975,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695684",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0099,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0099,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_HOU@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_KC@TOR

away

Randy Dobnak

True

5.0

6.0

3/6

3/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 1.5766423357664234,
      "WHIP": 1.4014598540145986,
      "IP": 45.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.143,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.257,
      "sample_weight": 0.696,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0218,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9523,
      "walk_factor": 1.0139,
      "homer_factor": 0.9799,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 3.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 63,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 45.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.577,
      "season_WHIP": 1.401,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "677976",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6875,
            "WHIP": 1.425,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
            "Pitches": 805.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.8889,
            "R": 0.8889,
            "H": 4.8889,
            "BB": 2.2222,
            "SO": 3.2222,
            "HR": 0.2222,
            "BF": 21.7778,
            "Pitches": 89.4444
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17518,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9635,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43796,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63504,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0438
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 196.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.8889,
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            "H": 4.8889,
            "BB": 2.2222,
            "SO": 3.2222,
            "HR": 0.2222,
            "BF": 21.7778,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17518,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9635,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43796,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63504,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0438
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.591,
        "predicted_H": 5.3,
        "predicted_BB": 2.163,
        "predicted_SO": 4.171,
        "predicted_HR": 0.339,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6667,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3898
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5009,
      "form_weight": 0.4991,
      "form_reliability": 0.6429,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.591,
          "final": 2.2967,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.3,
          "final": 4.148,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.163,
          "final": 2.5822,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.171,
          "final": 4.5862,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.339,
          "final": 0.6701,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6667,
          "final": 2.6667,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3898,
          "final": 1.3898,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.2,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.5766423357664232,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 524.0,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "677976",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "677976",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.34840198382811,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 90,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3484,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.9998,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0218,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Randy Dobnak",
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            "espn_rank": 63,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 9.0,
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              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 173,
              "era_value": 1.5766,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 293,
              "l_value": 1.0,
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              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
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              "ip_rank": 299,
              "h_value": 44.0,
              "h_rank": 258,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 550,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
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              "k_value": 29.0,
              "k_rank": 404,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.715328,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4014,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.09,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0152,
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.0152,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9668,
            "adjusted": 4
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_KC@TOR

home

Spencer Miles

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-1

2/2

2/0

9/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.0248962655601663,
      "WHIP": 1.095435684647303,
      "IP": 80.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 40,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.5,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4975,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9577,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9657,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 0.886,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 3.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 18.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 80.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.025,
      "season_WHIP": 1.095,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.122,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7633,
        "prior_weight": 0.2367
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 40,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 51.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 10.2
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.6923,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 42.0,
            "Pitches": 146.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.2,
            "Pitches": 14.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7419,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09677,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48387,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 40,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 80.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 68.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 324.0,
            "Pitches": 1244.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.675,
            "R": 0.725,
            "H": 1.7,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.825,
            "HR": 0.125,
            "BF": 8.1,
            "Pitches": 31.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0249,
            "WHIP": 1.0954,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3361,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24896,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06224
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.5,
        "predicted_H": 1.933,
        "predicted_BB": 0.341,
        "predicted_SO": 1.289,
        "predicted_HR": 0.1,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9938,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0072
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7633,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.5,
          "final": 0.725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.933,
          "final": 1.9632,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9938,
          "final": 1.9938,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0072,
          "final": 1.0072,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 10.1,
        "ER": 2,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.741935483870968,
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        "K9": 4.35483870967742,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-22T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8971283793757396,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          },
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6692,
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        "offense_index": 0.9514,
        "defense_index": 0.9081,
        "current_streak": "W9",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0096
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0784,
        "offense_edge": -0.1177,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0486,
        "defense_strength": 0.0222,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0919,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9995,
        "run_prevention": 0.9939,
        "strikeout": 1.0015
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693686",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693686",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 317.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3265,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0347,
            "whiff_percent": 18.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9862,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1429,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0656
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693686",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 12,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 12,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.01993422348478,
              "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211257707427,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 12,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.01993422348478,
                "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211257707427,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0199,
              "release_spin_rate": 2457.7211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0656,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4688,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4975,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9577,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9657,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.886,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693686",
            "espn_id": 4833671,
            "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 81,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 81,
              "gp_value": 40.0,
              "gp_rank": 149,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 218,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 3.0248,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 123,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 301,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 128,
              "hld_value": 4.0,
              "hld_rank": 179,
              "ip_value": 80.1,
              "ip_rank": 144,
              "h_value": 68.0,
              "h_rank": 156,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 197,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 289,
              "bb_value": 20.0,
              "bb_rank": 262,
              "k_value": 73.0,
              "k_rank": 152,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.178423,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0954,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.81,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9577,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9577,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.886,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9657,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_KC@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_LAD@ATL

away

Roki Sasaki

True

5.2

3.1

-7

1/6

0/2

2/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.422413793103448,
      "WHIP": 1.3017241379310345,
      "IP": 116.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.273,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.074,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0063,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.088,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.338,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 236,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808963",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7614,
            "WHIP": 1.1932,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78409,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98864,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06818
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0248,
            "WHIP": 1.2671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4472,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40994,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93168,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 116.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 105.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 114.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 493.0,
            "Pitches": 1986.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5909,
            "R": 2.6818,
            "H": 4.7727,
            "BB": 2.0909,
            "SO": 5.1818,
            "HR": 0.9545,
            "BF": 22.4091,
            "Pitches": 90.2727
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4224,
            "WHIP": 1.3017,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39655,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18103
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.328,
        "predicted_H": 4.85,
        "predicted_BB": 2.254,
        "predicted_SO": 5.433,
        "predicted_HR": 0.76,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7155,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2596
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.328,
          "final": 2.1875,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.85,
          "final": 3.6295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.254,
          "final": 1.2887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.433,
          "final": 3.9628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.76,
          "final": 0.4345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7155,
          "final": 3.7155,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2596,
          "final": 1.2596,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.024844720496895,
        "WHIP": 1.2670807453416149,
        "K9": 8.385093167701864,
        "HR9": 1.6770186335403727,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9569356842249015,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "808963",
      "player_name": "Roki Sasaki",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 52,
        "win_pct": 0.6061,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 506.0,
        "run_differential": 150.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1364,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9697,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 1.113,
        "defense_index": 1.1649,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3002
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5833,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 507.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8409,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8409,
        "offense_index": 1.0485,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1394
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1608,
        "offense_edge": 0.113,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0485,
        "defense_strength": 0.1649,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1626,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0094,
        "run_prevention": 0.9832,
        "strikeout": 1.0009
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808963",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808963",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 469.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.338,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0412,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5398,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3938,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2907,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6429,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.137
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "808963",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.29431561335473,
              "release_spin_rate": 1705.237151996287,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.29431561335473,
                "release_spin_rate": 1705.237151996287,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2943,
              "release_spin_rate": 1705.2372,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.137,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9786,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.074,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0063,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.088,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "808963",
            "espn_id": 5134638,
            "player_name": "Roki Sasaki",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 236,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 236,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 335,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 4.4224,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 123,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 123,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 116.0,
              "ip_rank": 89,
              "h_value": 105.0,
              "h_rank": 89,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 21,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 39,
              "k_value": 114.0,
              "k_rank": 63,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.844828,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3017,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.58,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.088,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 74,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_LAD@ATL

home

AJ Smith-Shawver

True

4.0

5.0

2/5

0/3

2/3

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.6153846153846154,
      "IP": 8.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2753,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0234,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9787,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0147,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.5,
      "bb_percent": 12.5,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.363,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 579,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.7143
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700363",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2308,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 144.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2308,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 144.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 72.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2308,
            "WHIP": 1.6154,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.407,
        "predicted_H": 4.303,
        "predicted_BB": 1.853,
        "predicted_SO": 3.927,
        "predicted_HR": 0.454,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.999,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4205
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.407,
          "final": 2.1417,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.303,
          "final": 2.8019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.853,
          "final": 0.6452,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.927,
          "final": 2.671,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.454,
          "final": 0.1581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.999,
          "final": 4.999,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4205,
          "final": 1.4205,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.2,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 7,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 6.230769230769231,
        "WHIP": 1.6153846153846154,
        "K9": 7.26923076923077,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0604920127918847,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
          "prior_weight": 0.7143
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700363",
      "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5833,
        "runs_scored": 618.0,
        "runs_allowed": 507.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8409,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8409,
        "offense_index": 1.0485,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1394
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 52,
        "win_pct": 0.6061,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 506.0,
        "run_differential": 150.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1364,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9697,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8333,
        "offense_index": 1.113,
        "defense_index": 1.1649,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3002
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1608,
        "offense_edge": 0.0485,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.113,
        "defense_strength": 0.1626,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1649,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9939,
        "run_prevention": 1.0099,
        "strikeout": 0.9861
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 19.0,
            "k_percent": 17.5,
            "bb_percent": 12.5,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.363,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2279,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1908,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4735,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6443,
            "regression_edge": -1.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1195
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.98260869565216,
              "release_spin_rate": 1967.5652173913045,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.98260869565216,
                "release_spin_rate": 1967.5652173913045,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9826,
              "release_spin_rate": 1967.5652,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1195,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8539,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2753,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0234,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9787,
          "walk_factor": 1.0297,
          "homer_factor": 1.0147,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.066,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700363",
            "espn_id": 4917640,
            "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 579,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 579,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 725,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 265,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 6.2307,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 507,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 554,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 8.2,
              "ip_rank": 614,
              "h_value": 9.0,
              "h_rank": 618,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 600,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 716,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 597,
              "k_value": 7.0,
              "k_rank": 610,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2692304,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.6153,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.1,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0105,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0105,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0134,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9904,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 56,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_MIL@NYM

away

Dustin May

True

5.1

0.1

-15

-2

4/0

0/0

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.57258064516129,
      "WHIP": 1.2983870967741935,
      "IP": 124.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1108,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0094,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.039,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 283,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.2308,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84615,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 746.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 74.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1654,
            "WHIP": 1.6063,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68504,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11024,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49606,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01575,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09449
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 124.0,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 523.0,
            "Pitches": 1997.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.625,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 4.9583,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.9167,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 21.7917,
            "Pitches": 83.2083
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5726,
            "WHIP": 1.2984,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33871,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95161,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07258
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.655,
        "predicted_H": 4.86,
        "predicted_BB": 2.05,
        "predicted_SO": 4.762,
        "predicted_HR": 0.471,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7377,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.37
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.655,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.6947,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.7377,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.37,
          "final": 1.37,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.1,
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        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 4,
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        "WHIP": 1.606299212598425,
        "K9": 9.141732283464567,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2062234770551454,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 24.0,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6136,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 492.0,
        "run_differential": 160.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2121,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9394,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7273,
        "offense_index": 1.1062,
        "defense_index": 1.198,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2809
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4545,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2955,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1591,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4545,
        "offense_index": 0.9314,
        "defense_index": 1.0024,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0051
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.286,
        "offense_edge": 0.1062,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0686,
        "defense_strength": 0.198,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0024,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0201,
        "run_prevention": 0.9549,
        "strikeout": 1.0141
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 504.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9675,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5962,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1621,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0464,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1507
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.53855643863997,
              "release_spin_rate": 2530.2508026722626,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.53855643863997,
                "release_spin_rate": 2530.2508026722626,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5386,
              "release_spin_rate": 2530.2508,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1507,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0763,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1108,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0094,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9869,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.039,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_id": 40937,
            "player_name": "Dustin May",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 283,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 283,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 299,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 4.5725,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 93,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 38,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 124.0,
              "ip_rank": 74,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 63,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 163,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 57,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 55,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.564516,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2983,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0094,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0094,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.039,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9869,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_MIL@NYM

home

Robert Stock

True

4.0

3/10

3/2

2/2

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
      "WHIP": 1.68,
      "IP": 16.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.167,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0905,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0077,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.008,
      "walk_factor": 1.0396,
      "homer_factor": 1.0066,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 13.6,
      "woba": 0.35,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 10.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 27.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 552,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "476594",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 4.75,
            "HR": 0.25,
            "BF": 20.25,
            "Pitches": 79.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.68,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "BB": 2.75,
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            "Pitches": 79.25
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.68,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.267,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4925
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "model_weight": 0.5847,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.482,
          "final": 2.7849,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.4925,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "insufficient_data"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 10,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 1,
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        "K9": 10.260000000000002,
        "HR9": 0.54,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
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        "struggling_form": true
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.066358638354973,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "476594",
      "player_name": "Robert Stock",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": -0.2,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2955,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 652.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2121,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 29.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2809
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0686,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1062,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.198,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9829
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "476594",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "476594",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.331,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "476594",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "release_speed": 91.09359126984127,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0936,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0905,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Robert Stock",
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            "espn_rank": 552,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 16.2,
              "ip_rank": 521,
              "h_value": 17.0,
              "h_rank": 515,
              "er_value": 10.0,
              "er_rank": 496,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 584,
              "bb_value": 11.0,
              "bb_rank": 431,
              "k_value": 19.0,
              "k_rank": 475,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.26,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.68,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0035,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0035,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0178,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.003,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0036,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_MIL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_MIN@OAK

away

Connor Prielipp

True

5.0

5.1

1/6

5/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.572953736654804,
      "WHIP": 1.3985765124555158,
      "IP": 93.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.204,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1244,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 1.0457,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 775,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4815,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7975,
            "WHIP": 1.4356,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64417,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04908,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3865,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08589,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16564
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.2,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 408.0,
            "Pitches": 1602.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2222,
            "R": 3.6667,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 2.1111,
            "SO": 5.6111,
            "HR": 0.7222,
            "BF": 22.6667,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.573,
            "WHIP": 1.3986,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61922,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99288,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40569,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07829,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13879
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.499,
        "predicted_H": 5.37,
        "predicted_BB": 2.234,
        "predicted_SO": 5.67,
        "predicted_HR": 0.876,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9051,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4257
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.499,
          "final": 3.2785,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.37,
          "final": 3.4391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.234,
          "final": 3.4562,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.67,
          "final": 5.8158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.876,
          "final": 0.4889,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9051,
          "final": 5.9051,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4257,
          "final": 1.4257,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 35,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.7975460122699385,
        "WHIP": 1.4355828220858895,
        "K9": 9.773006134969325,
        "HR9": 1.4907975460122698,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1605771314679758,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687570",
      "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4812,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3985,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.594,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9925,
        "offense_index": 1.027,
        "defense_index": 0.896,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4135,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7594,
        "offense_index": 0.9715,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3014
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2014,
        "offense_edge": 0.027,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0285,
        "defense_strength": -0.104,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2233,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9958,
        "strikeout": 1.0083
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 378.0,
            "k_percent": 24.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6216,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4011,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3629,
            "command_and_miss": 0.115,
            "regression_edge": 0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0049
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.93601914851176,
              "release_spin_rate": 2594.3351532090487,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.93601914851176,
                "release_spin_rate": 2594.3351532090487,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.936,
              "release_spin_rate": 2594.3352,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0049,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0353,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1244,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0106,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0091,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 1.0457,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687570",
            "espn_id": 4620001,
            "player_name": "Connor Prielipp",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 775,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 775,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 387,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 103,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 133,
              "era_value": 5.5729,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 226,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 69,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 93.2,
              "ip_rank": 119,
              "h_value": 93.0,
              "h_rank": 109,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 54,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 107,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 76,
              "k_value": 101.0,
              "k_rank": 86,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.704626,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3985,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0457,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_MIN@OAK

home

J.T. Ginn

True

5.2

6.0

5/6

4/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.604534005037783,
      "WHIP": 1.2317380352644836,
      "IP": 132.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.449,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1582,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9866,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 0.9501,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 21,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669372",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.1591,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30682,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03409
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5818,
            "WHIP": 1.3273,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50909,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41818,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.1,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 555.0,
            "Pitches": 2102.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0385,
            "R": 2.2692,
            "H": 4.1538,
            "BB": 2.1154,
            "SO": 4.5385,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 21.3462,
            "Pitches": 80.8462
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6045,
            "WHIP": 1.2317,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4005,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81612,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41562,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89169,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10579
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.45,
        "predicted_H": 4.928,
        "predicted_BB": 2.052,
        "predicted_SO": 4.972,
        "predicted_HR": 0.482,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9502,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2502
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.45,
          "final": 2.2618,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.928,
          "final": 4.9581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.052,
          "final": 2.8666,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.972,
          "final": 4.1474,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.482,
          "final": 0.6986,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9502,
          "final": 3.9502,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2502,
          "final": 1.2502,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.581818181818182,
        "WHIP": 1.3272727272727274,
        "K9": 8.181818181818182,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.021099998171824,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669372",
      "player_name": "J.T. Ginn",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.391,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4135,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7594,
        "offense_index": 0.9715,
        "defense_index": 0.7767,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3014
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4812,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3985,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.594,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9925,
        "offense_index": 1.027,
        "defense_index": 0.896,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2014,
        "offense_edge": -0.0285,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.027,
        "defense_strength": -0.2233,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.104,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9842,
        "run_prevention": 1.0367,
        "strikeout": 0.9918
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 529.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7968,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5149,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3142,
            "command_and_miss": 0.005,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0481
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.70700771114096,
              "release_spin_rate": 1973.3837422021236,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.70700771114096,
                "release_spin_rate": 1973.3837422021236,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.707,
              "release_spin_rate": 1973.3837,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0481,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3437,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1582,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9866,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 0.9501,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669372",
            "espn_id": 4414002,
            "player_name": "J.T. Ginn",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 21,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 21,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 62,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.6045,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 47,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 38,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 132.1,
              "ip_rank": 55,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 85,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 74,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 15,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 55,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.025188,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2317,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9501,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_MIN@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_PHI@SEA

away

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.1

7.0

-4

4/1

3/3

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3461538461538463,
      "WHIP": 1.1538461538461537,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7536,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9359,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0834,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9153,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.264,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.2,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 136.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 27.2,
            "Pitches": 103.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4752,
            "WHIP": 1.0693,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38614,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80198,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26733,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24752,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08911
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 84.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 999.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 99.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4031,
            "WHIP": 0.9424,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26702,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67539,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26702,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07853
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 194.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 645.0,
            "Pitches": 2548.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2308,
            "R": 2.4615,
            "H": 5.1154,
            "BB": 1.8077,
            "SO": 7.4615,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 24.8077,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3462,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37179,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85256,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24359,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08974
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.352,
        "predicted_H": 5.13,
        "predicted_BB": 1.851,
        "predicted_SO": 7.807,
        "predicted_HR": 0.611,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3052,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0903
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.352,
          "final": 3.0411,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.13,
          "final": 4.6575,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.851,
          "final": 2.3315,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.807,
          "final": 6.6333,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.611,
          "final": 0.3555,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3052,
          "final": 3.3052,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0903,
          "final": 1.0903,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.2,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 84,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.4031413612565444,
        "WHIP": 0.9424083769633507,
        "K9": 11.87434554973822,
        "HR9": 0.706806282722513,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7663772471009054,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5489,
        "runs_scored": 602.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1278,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5263,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3985,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.0188,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1623
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4812,
        "runs_scored": 526.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3835,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9549,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3383,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1553,
        "offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1174,
        "defense_strength": 0.0188,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0329,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0115,
        "run_prevention": 0.9716,
        "strikeout": 1.0141
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.264,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.4225,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0659,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7808,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9407,
            "regression_edge": 0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8,
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            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0403
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56733124144404,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.6617933348475,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 102,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.56733124144404,
                "release_spin_rate": 2203.6617933348475,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.6618,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0403,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2878,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7536,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9359,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0834,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666200",
            "espn_id": 39667,
            "player_name": "Jesus Luzardo",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 8,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 8,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 15,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 15,
              "era_value": 3.3461,
              "era_rank": 20.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 18,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 123,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 156.0,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 54,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 35,
              "k_value": 194.0,
              "k_rank": 4,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.192307,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1538,
              "whip_rank": 25.0,
              "war_value": 4.74,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9153,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0834,
            "adjusted": 9
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_PHI@SEA

home

Bryan Woo

True

5.2

4.0

-5

3/5

1/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.0843373493975903,
      "IP": 138.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.764,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0109,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0124,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.293,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 111,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.0714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.1,
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            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8343,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42604,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90533,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24852,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02959,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10651
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 121.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 563.0,
            "Pitches": 2118.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.625,
            "R": 2.7917,
            "H": 5.0417,
            "BB": 1.2083,
            "SO": 5.7083,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 23.4583,
            "Pitches": 88.25
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0988,
            "WHIP": 1.0843,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45542,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20964,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99036,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.52,
        "predicted_H": 4.992,
        "predicted_BB": 1.491,
        "predicted_SO": 5.653,
        "predicted_HR": 0.646,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0024,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1441
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.52,
          "final": 3.1458,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.992,
          "final": 4.1497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.491,
          "final": 1.2834,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.653,
          "final": 3.6855,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.646,
          "final": 0.7957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0024,
          "final": 4.0024,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1441,
          "final": 1.1441,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.8343195266272194,
        "WHIP": 1.153846153846154,
        "K9": 9.266272189349113,
        "HR9": 0.9585798816568049,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9326707351271764,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693433",
      "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.4812,
        "runs_scored": 526.0,
        "runs_allowed": 577.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3835,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9549,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3383,
        "offense_index": 0.8826,
        "defense_index": 1.0329,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5489,
        "runs_scored": 602.0,
        "runs_allowed": 585.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1278,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5263,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3985,
        "offense_index": 1.0101,
        "defense_index": 1.0188,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1623
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1553,
        "offense_edge": -0.1174,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0101,
        "defense_strength": 0.0329,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0188,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0061,
        "strikeout": 0.9945
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693433",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693433",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 539.0,
            "k_percent": 24.3,
            "bb_percent": 5.2,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2824,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4448,
            "whiff_percent": 24.8,
            "swing_percent": 53.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2179,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3279,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1579
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693433",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.66728933036258,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.81627128077,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.66728933036258,
                "release_spin_rate": 2270.81627128077,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6673,
              "release_spin_rate": 2270.8163,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1579,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1278,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1942,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0109,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0124,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693433",
            "espn_id": 4629089,
            "player_name": "Bryan Woo",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 111,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 111,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 299,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 48,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 21,
              "era_value": 4.0987,
              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 38,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 138.1,
              "ip_rank": 42,
              "h_value": 121.0,
              "h_rank": 57,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 153,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 32,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.913253,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0843,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 1.47,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9835,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0124,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_PHI@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_PIT@SD

away

Bubba Chandler

True

5.0

5.2

-1

5/4

1/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.38031914893617,
      "WHIP": 1.372340425531915,
      "IP": 125.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0342,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0029,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
      "walk_factor": 1.058,
      "homer_factor": 0.977,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 144,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 88,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_PIT@SD

home

Randy Vásquez

True

5.0

-3

5/1

1/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "681190",
      "player_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "681190",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.4571,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681190",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.38308720522035,
              "release_spin_rate": 2598.7911471091766,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 66,
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                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3831,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Randy Vasquez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.3135,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
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          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0672,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0672,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1355,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9251,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_PIT@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_TB@DET

away

Freddy Peralta

True

5.0

6.0

-3

2/2

2/0

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.333333333333333,
      "WHIP": 1.4592592592592593,
      "IP": 135.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.192,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0252,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 0.9926,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.349,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 809,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.4605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19737
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 92.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2027,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "H_per_IP": 1.17568,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93243,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2027
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 135.0,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 88.0,
            "H": 143.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 601.0,
            "Pitches": 2436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0769,
            "R": 3.3846,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.0769,
            "SO": 4.9615,
            "HR": 0.8462,
            "BF": 23.1154,
            "Pitches": 93.6923
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.4593,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05926,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16296
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.365,
        "predicted_H": 5.622,
        "predicted_BB": 1.843,
        "predicted_SO": 4.397,
        "predicted_HR": 0.935,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9898,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4767
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.365,
          "final": 2.7942,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.622,
          "final": 4.1075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.843,
          "final": 1.9086,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.397,
          "final": 4.6491,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.935,
          "final": 0.544,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9898,
          "final": 5.9898,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4767,
          "final": 1.4767,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.202702702702703,
        "WHIP": 1.581081081081081,
        "K9": 8.391891891891891,
        "HR9": 1.8243243243243243,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2097947156165414,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.5909,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3333,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4848,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1515,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.0813,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0831
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4697,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 519.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.553,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4848,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9318,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.1417,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.063
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1461,
        "offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "defense_strength": 0.0813,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1417,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0083,
        "run_prevention": 0.9844,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.349,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1715,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6744,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1468,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0279,
            "regression_edge": 1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0344
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
                "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.2281,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0344,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2458,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0252,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9979,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0029,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 0.9926,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.036,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_id": 39825,
            "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 809,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 809,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 15,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 103,
              "era_value": 5.3333,
              "era_rank": 53.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 123,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 135.0,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 143.0,
              "h_rank": 14,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 3,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 17,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 16,
              "k_value": 129.0,
              "k_rank": 41,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.6,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4592,
              "whip_rank": 53.0,
              "war_value": -0.91,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9979,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9979,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_TB@DET

home

Troy Melton

True

6.0

7.0

1/7

2/0

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.6,
      "WHIP": 1.0,
      "IP": 90.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3835,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9674,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9977,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.941,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.267,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 13,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9,
            "WHIP": 1.1,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.08,
            "WHIP": 1.0286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 355.0,
            "Pitches": 1343.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0667,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.1333,
            "BB": 1.8667,
            "SO": 5.0667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.6667,
            "Pitches": 89.5333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.17778,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68889,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31111,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.303,
        "predicted_H": 4.809,
        "predicted_BB": 1.952,
        "predicted_SO": 5.135,
        "predicted_HR": 0.563,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9538,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1269
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4556,
      "form_weight": 0.5444,
      "form_reliability": 0.75,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.303,
          "final": 1.6206,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.809,
          "final": 3.0735,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.952,
          "final": 1.9739,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.135,
          "final": 4.6179,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.563,
          "final": 0.7621,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.9538,
          "final": 1.9538,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1269,
          "final": 1.1269,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.0799999999999998,
        "WHIP": 1.0285714285714285,
        "K9": 8.794285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.6171428571428571,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6929577164690786,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "player_name": "Troy Melton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4697,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 519.0,
        "run_differential": 73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.553,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4848,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9318,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.1417,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.063
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 54,
        "win_pct": 0.5909,
        "runs_scored": 592.0,
        "runs_allowed": 548.0,
        "run_differential": 44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3333,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4848,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1515,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.0813,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0831
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1461,
        "offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "defense_strength": 0.1417,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0813,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 0.993,
        "strikeout": 0.9957
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675512",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675512",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 329.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.267,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6189,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5308,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7139,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0364,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1064
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675512",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.7475265975609,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043061551607,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.7475265975609,
                "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043061551607,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.7475,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.3043,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1064,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7599,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3835,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9674,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9977,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.941,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675512",
            "espn_id": 5294127,
            "player_name": "Troy Melton",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 13,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 13,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 432,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 122,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 69,
              "era_value": 1.6,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 301,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 90.0,
              "ip_rank": 130,
              "h_value": 62.0,
              "h_rank": 167,
              "er_value": 16.0,
              "er_rank": 363,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 143,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 161,
              "k_value": 76.0,
              "k_rank": 140,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.941,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_TB@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_TEX@CHW

away

MacKenzie Gore

True

5.2

3.2

-6

3/8

2/4

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.2631578947368425,
      "WHIP": 1.2288329519450802,
      "IP": 145.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.395,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1288,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0326,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0495,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 114,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 496.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 99.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.9333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 926.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6098,
            "WHIP": 1.189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5122,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93293,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2561,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17073,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18293
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.2,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 161.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 619.0,
            "Pitches": 2469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5556,
            "R": 2.5556,
            "H": 4.7037,
            "BB": 1.9259,
            "SO": 5.963,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.9259,
            "Pitches": 91.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2632,
            "WHIP": 1.2288,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87185,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35698,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12357
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.244,
        "predicted_H": 4.669,
        "predicted_BB": 1.661,
        "predicted_SO": 6.261,
        "predicted_HR": 0.837,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5821,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1226
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.244,
          "final": 2.5585,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.669,
          "final": 3.9747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.661,
          "final": 1.802,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.261,
          "final": 6.1524,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.837,
          "final": 1.3208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5821,
          "final": 3.5821,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1226,
          "final": 1.1226,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.609756097560975,
        "WHIP": 1.1890243902439024,
        "K9": 10.536585365853657,
        "HR9": 1.646341463414634,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0207868052671676,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 580.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3083,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3609,
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        "defense_index": 1.0248,
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          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0062
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5227,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2879,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4924,
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        "defense_index": 0.9948,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0547
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0931,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0248,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9955,
        "run_prevention": 1.0117,
        "strikeout": 0.9926
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 595.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.278,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5679,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.3821,
            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0257
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3071,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3883,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0257,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1837,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1288,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9891,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0326,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0495,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_id": 39636,
            "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 114,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 114,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 223,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 3,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 4.2631,
              "era_rank": 46.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 19,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 145.2,
              "ip_rank": 25,
              "h_value": 127.0,
              "h_rank": 42,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 14,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 39,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 18,
              "k_value": 161.0,
              "k_rank": 15,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.947369,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2288,
              "whip_rank": 35.0,
              "war_value": 1.43,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0495,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260826

20260826_TEX@CHW

home

Sean Burke

True

5.2

3.0

-8

3/2

2/8

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9794,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
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      "k_percent": 26.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.293,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260826",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.6,
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            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
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            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0843,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 18.0,
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            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
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            "Pitches": 928.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 7.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.21023,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10227
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 146.0,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 158.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 596.0,
            "Pitches": 2354.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0385,
            "R": 2.1154,
            "H": 4.6154,
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            "Pitches": 90.5385
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1096,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36301,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28767,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08219,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11644
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.172,
        "predicted_H": 4.779,
        "predicted_BB": 1.517,
        "predicted_SO": 6.175,
        "predicted_HR": 0.737,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.391,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0921
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.172,
          "final": 1.6819,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.779,
          "final": 4.0351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.517,
          "final": 1.719,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.175,
          "final": 6.1018,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.737,
          "final": 0.4288,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.391,
          "final": 3.391,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.0921,
          "final": 1.0921,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 17,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 71,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 10.892045454545455,
        "HR9": 0.9204545454545455,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7897221572627331,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 132,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5227,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2879,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4924,
        "offense_index": 1.0697,
        "defense_index": 0.9948,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0547
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4962,
        "runs_scored": 539.0,
        "runs_allowed": 580.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3083,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3609,
        "offense_index": 0.9069,
        "defense_index": 1.0248,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0062
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0609,
        "offense_edge": 0.0697,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0931,
        "defense_strength": -0.0052,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0248,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9826,
        "strikeout": 1.0093
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 546.0,
            "k_percent": 26.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.293,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0177,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7962,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.614,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9187,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2384,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4243,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.011
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.65202320477285,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.661669048999,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.65202320477285,
                "release_spin_rate": 2508.661669048999,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.652,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.6617,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.011,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0783,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2429,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9794,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.99,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_id": 4867679,
            "player_name": "Sean Burke",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 12,
            "espn_total_ranked": 831,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 12,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 72,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 50,
              "era_value": 3.2671,
              "era_rank": 18.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 73,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 97,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 241,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 331,
              "ip_value": 146.0,
              "ip_rank": 24,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 74,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 52,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 57,
              "k_value": 158.0,
              "k_rank": 18,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.739726,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1095,
              "whip_rank": 15.0,
              "war_value": 3.81,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260826_TEX@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}