Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260823 · dates 20260823 · generated 2026-08-24T06:00:16.313347+00:00

13-2
Winner picks · 86.7%
30
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
16/30
Starter ER within ±1
18/30
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
202608231515013215Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 12formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored12
available games: 12
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X12
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1012
configured window: 10last 10 games: 12observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3075.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55852.4%87.5%-35.1%underconfident
0.55-0.60556.5%80.0%-23.5%underconfident
0.60-0.65162.8%100.0%-37.2%underconfident
0.70-0.80174.4%100.0%-25.6%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml152.39663.5313.414553.3%0.00.0
variance_applied152.43333.83.266753.3%0.0367-0.1478
enhanced_prediction152.43334.23.480.0%0.0367-0.0145
embedded_savant_run_environment152.44.03.333380.0%0.0034-0.0812
fundamental_edge_target_review152.36673.93333.266786.7%-0.0299-0.1478
capped_target152.36673.93333.266786.7%-0.0299-0.1478
simulation_result152.36673.93333.266786.7%-0.0299-0.1478
published_final152.36673.93333.266786.7%-0.0299-0.1478
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.4333,
  "total_run_mae": 3.8,
  "margin_mae": 3.2667,
  "winner_hits": 8,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0367,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.1478
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction2.02
embedded_savant_run_environment1.02
fundamental_edge_target_review0.02
capped_target0.02
simulation_result0.02
variance_applied-0.21282
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2128,
      "games": 2
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=13

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction8.013
embedded_savant_run_environment2.013
variance_applied1.890413
fundamental_edge_target_review1.013
capped_target0.013
simulation_result0.013
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "games": 13
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 13
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.8904,
      "games": 13
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 13
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 13
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 13
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)3210.6667
[0.525, 0.550)5501.0
[0.550, 0.600)5410.8
[0.600, 1.010)2201.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.6667
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260823150.55926.66670.8667
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260823",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5592,
      "mean_predicted_total": 6.6667,
      "accuracy": 0.8667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v9model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3151320.8667
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 13,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.8667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260823_ATL@MIL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickMIL
Published scoreATL 3 - 5 MIL
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 71.9% → blended 63.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=204
H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6966
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.525821831417183-4.658291294418251Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.719212,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.636556,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4923,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6966
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029405013204046735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029044752147837877
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027864927760392455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02752353535099333
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02608999256823231
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037213703785265784,
      "1": 0.0638647342928528,
      "2": 0.0960546061406412,
      "3": 0.126611791580409,
      "4": 0.14626115055730407,
      "5": 0.14807532326271722,
      "6": 0.1313818176735667,
      "7": 0.10216137167498891,
      "8": 0.0696204838717246,
      "9": 0.04158016726431206,
      "10": 0.021763778607156167,
      "11": 0.009983463613351092,
      "12": 0.004013534977028443,
      "13": 0.001414072698681984
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08710316460828467,
      "1": 0.14297945816944593,
      "2": 0.18818076602104813,
      "3": 0.1985814554115541,
      "4": 0.16802117548883527,
      "5": 0.11398592300347457,
      "6": 0.06200122839029761,
      "7": 0.027040283451418592,
      "8": 0.009455490394581012,
      "9": 0.0026510550610602
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0831,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.146,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6966,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6604,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6966,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.076,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0831,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.525821831417183,
      "home_runs": 4.658291294418251,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_CHC@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHC
Published scoreCHC 4 - 3 SEA
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 64.7% → blended 61.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.4% · weight 50.0% · n=216
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7692
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.1505084096207625-4.169817146317262Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647099,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5741,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.610599,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2308,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7692
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03059391416298891
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.028499920937262953
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028254853664656868
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02776161263765708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02757836423254973
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07607217572289143,
      "1": 0.1261264485979629,
      "2": 0.17105256952865314,
      "3": 0.1897562736277807,
      "4": 0.17218915291305287,
      "5": 0.1278081478762956,
      "6": 0.07759869161168605,
      "7": 0.03853837173840944,
      "8": 0.015655805961332946,
      "9": 0.005202362421934745
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04756316584931728,
      "1": 0.08087473037644848,
      "2": 0.118310030831703,
      "3": 0.14890076161634902,
      "4": 0.1612274186148958,
      "5": 0.15019224604487863,
      "6": 0.12037124521102083,
      "7": 0.08299742610105372,
      "8": 0.049234907386643885,
      "9": 0.025127440668528647,
      "10": 0.011032908513047649,
      "11": 0.004167718786113036
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0786,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.438,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7692,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6426,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7692,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.088,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0786,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.1505084096207625,
      "home_runs": 4.169817146317262,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_CIN@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickARI
Published scoreCIN 3 - 4 ARI
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 50.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.9% · weight 50.0% · n=285
H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5862
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.716273016347087-4.5175904282752075Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.504044,
    "sample_size": 285,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5088,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.506422,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8308,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.132,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5862
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032123423442569306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031009699228522133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030765497032342194
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029698852343510256
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0278623539739904
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06606610360612593,
      "1": 0.11050884400533942,
      "2": 0.15389854277464524,
      "3": 0.17843954582794935,
      "4": 0.1722530183151684,
      "5": 0.13844003546373612,
      "6": 0.09263512524029263,
      "7": 0.05160702381884329,
      "8": 0.023936522970053255,
      "9": 0.009243414864433046,
      "10": 0.0029718231134131627
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06733377294506358,
      "1": 0.11250213780293444,
      "2": 0.15614450173985067,
      "3": 0.18002412690257896,
      "4": 0.17241411868424142,
      "5": 0.13716807247899201,
      "6": 0.09065073741002319,
      "7": 0.049765427915556056,
      "8": 0.022694584730608734,
      "9": 0.008597156528944102,
      "10": 0.0027053628612069376
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0166,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.202,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5862,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6121,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5862,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.132,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0166,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.716273016347087,
      "home_runs": 4.5175904282752075,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_CLE@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreCLE 6 - 2 COL
Final confidence74.4%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 72.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=184
H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8479
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.8627767107636295-4.008023041643891Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment6-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review6-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target6-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.488614,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.744307,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.255693,
    "away_win_probability": 0.744307
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.488614,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 6 - 2 COL",
    "confidence": 0.744307,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 184,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.729,
    "published_confidence": 0.744307,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -8.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0667,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0667,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.046,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03387256982621436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032006558999926236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.031727450156670355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029618327494624945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02880959847387939
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1269699087092047,
      "1": 0.20072908535654002,
      "2": 0.23600502332776832,
      "3": 0.2063638545041465,
      "4": 0.13419843715691382,
      "5": 0.06490269461765812,
      "6": 0.023344223953533295,
      "7": 0.006244498947504126,
      "8": 0.0012422734267308058
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03189038239314067,
      "1": 0.0549993345994839,
      "2": 0.08395237887139315,
      "3": 0.11341916388500273,
      "4": 0.1356181260407958,
      "5": 0.14352478328044518,
      "6": 0.1344354866235481,
      "7": 0.11144967604078379,
      "8": 0.0817751897171326,
      "9": 0.05310582663322427,
      "10": 0.03052394409233688,
      "11": 0.015528052423066822,
      "12": 0.006991513342375864,
      "13": 0.0027861420572703865
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0374,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.7443,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.696,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7443,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0374,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7143,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2143,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8214,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.8627767107636295,
      "home_runs": 4.008023041643891,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_DET@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickKC
Published scoreDET 1 - 2 KC
Final confidence50.5%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.325797561557582-4.066464913453961Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-1Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 2-1 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 1 - 2 KC",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "DET 1 - 2 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "DET 1 - 2 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.536,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "fallback": true,
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.325797561557582,
      "home_runs": 4.066464913453961,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_LAA@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickTEX
Published scoreLAA 3 - 4 TEX
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 53.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.0% · weight 50.0% · n=290
H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0914
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.185116576514141-4.5174825571109665Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.564155,
    "sample_size": 290,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532078,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2923,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.804,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0914
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029558450658310205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029422571768840267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02917831657610404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02904418514618592
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025089642248539174
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05958553713964318,
      "1": 0.10023842725750803,
      "2": 0.1420027797503922,
      "3": 0.16940595184265647,
      "4": 0.17018829992517032,
      "5": 0.1439792649527052,
      "6": 0.10257450287617237,
      "7": 0.061538670069588734,
      "8": 0.031090378449225162,
      "9": 0.013227358594436639,
      "10": 0.004739030055597207,
      "11": 0.0014297990869044741
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06248337484113821,
      "1": 0.10485012186269466,
      "2": 0.14742283846522222,
      "3": 0.17368086214684963,
      "4": 0.1714472533595634,
      "5": 0.14180791311921234,
      "6": 0.09827923516363891,
      "7": 0.05707086281288634,
      "8": 0.027768887239661522,
      "9": 0.011321237044669101,
      "10": 0.003867413944463568
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.072,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0914,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5765,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0914,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.804,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.072,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7143,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1786,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0714,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7857,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.185116576514141,
      "home_runs": 4.5174825571109665,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_MIN@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSD
Published scoreMIN 3 - 5 SD
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 67.8% → blended 62.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.5% · weight 50.0% · n=248
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5971
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.899631722919139-4.540092716838032Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.678086,
    "sample_size": 248,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5645,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.621293,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.045,
    "away_run_delta": -0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5115,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.756,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5971
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030972545224789174
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029967162844833587
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029461933697984687
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028505586429641155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027773626968826227
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04289866959006975,
      "1": 0.07325121250658735,
      "2": 0.10852011529092359,
      "3": 0.13948583597313188,
      "4": 0.15555157299925146,
      "5": 0.15050230082827548,
      "6": 0.12633867153187087,
      "7": 0.09201399923426208,
      "8": 0.05814280002304771,
      "9": 0.03187589683712446,
      "10": 0.015161889149967429,
      "11": 0.00625703603548786
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0879354094205259,
      "1": 0.14423609006951474,
      "2": 0.18940299432475982,
      "3": 0.19911431705636445,
      "4": 0.16757949790228727,
      "5": 0.11291250165419749,
      "6": 0.060906819658046195,
      "7": 0.02630222958590775,
      "8": 0.009093309107761191,
      "9": 0.002516831220635268
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0048,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.106,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5971,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6231,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5971,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.756,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0048,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.899631722919139,
      "home_runs": 4.540092716838032,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_NYM@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHW
Published scoreNYM 3 - 4 CHW
Final confidence55.4%
Calibrationraw 53.4% → blended 53.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=344
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4523
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.655171448284481-4.469540564234313Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.107562,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553781,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.553781,
    "away_win_probability": 0.446219
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.107562,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.5537807324999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.533685,
    "sample_size": 344,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5378,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535743,
    "published_confidence": 0.553781,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7239,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4523
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.035266008215349705
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03464177779427426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03427583523878647
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033669131499220406
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030039582433886606
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06327150795763732,
      "1": 0.1060981201888227,
      "2": 0.14886364468646662,
      "3": 0.1747636315529368,
      "4": 0.17167020587666534,
      "5": 0.141097802397524,
      "6": 0.09703469066869108,
      "7": 0.0558361231195794,
      "8": 0.026883446245609875,
      "9": 0.010830190114109357,
      "10": 0.0036506371919574404
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09263857102535185,
      "1": 0.15129776772713205,
      "2": 0.19612681960322015,
      "3": 0.20179260354101447,
      "4": 0.16479244366199927,
      "5": 0.10681521926821425,
      "6": 0.054953172687757054,
      "7": 0.022439656182794043,
      "8": 0.007272829695577313,
      "9": 0.001870916606939533
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0618,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.052,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 9,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4523,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5538,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5684,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5538,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4523,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.052,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0618,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1111,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.655171448284481,
      "home_runs": 4.469540564234313,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_OAK@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickOAK
Published scoreOAK 4 - 1 HOU
Final confidence50.5%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.928059235187715-4.045771082117666Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-1Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-1Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-1Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "OAK",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "OAK wins 4-1",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 1 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 1 HOU",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 1 HOU",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "model_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "OAK",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "OAK",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "OAK",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.604,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "fallback": true,
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.928059235187715,
      "home_runs": 4.045771082117666,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_PIT@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickLAD
Published scorePIT 3 - 4 LAD
Final confidence55.4%
Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=342
H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7665
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.4066568056497557-4.706534664832114Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.108946,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554473,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554473,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445527
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.108946,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.5544728875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 342,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56075,
    "published_confidence": 0.554473,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0996,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7665
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032597840893713176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03160959288314978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030052613536193665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02914152756469603
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02866385179686543
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05537013414908459,
      "1": 0.09349601253313723,
      "2": 0.13394548405754775,
      "3": 0.16280979749055816,
      "4": 0.16789991235110238,
      "5": 0.14690543922714444,
      "6": 0.109054290305543,
      "7": 0.06868550709473853,
      "8": 0.03670328493808046,
      "9": 0.01664034150269349,
      "10": 0.006400840535939102,
      "11": 0.002088955814430754
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08104681892661704,
      "1": 0.1337717205381165,
      "2": 0.17899124017021173,
      "3": 0.19415043425124903,
      "4": 0.1707198734977614,
      "5": 0.1216939307499221,
      "6": 0.07032227026812499,
      "7": 0.03294245577918217,
      "8": 0.012510025218876524,
      "9": 0.0038512305999385747
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0402,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7665,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5584,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7665,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.148,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0402,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.4066568056497557,
      "home_runs": 4.706534664832114,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_SF@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickBOS
Published scoreSF 2 - 5 BOS
Final confidence62.8%
Calibrationraw 87.5% → blended 70.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=184
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.245
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.441659375587462-4.498310519434997Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.256122,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.628061,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.628061,
    "away_win_probability": 0.371939
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.256122,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 2 - 5 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.62806115,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.875344,
    "sample_size": 184,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.706672,
    "published_confidence": 0.628061,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5664,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.245
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030181636169466817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029256009319787654
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028821781546979404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027937859459201388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02773031170892547
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028606244020770045,
      "1": 0.04948935058864049,
      "2": 0.07625124672882479,
      "3": 0.1046324563519952,
      "4": 0.12787044336612133,
      "5": 0.13917402873125628,
      "6": 0.13490576384832081,
      "7": 0.11646276307393151,
      "8": 0.08954223942729118,
      "9": 0.06131307422043252,
      "10": 0.03739060655845515,
      "11": 0.02030748807263746,
      "12": 0.009822774661670934,
      "13": 0.004231520349652346
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10873055729022563,
      "1": 0.17495011973027255,
      "2": 0.21686256009551372,
      "3": 0.20709166652518185,
      "4": 0.1523520744190943,
      "5": 0.08634592118292367,
      "6": 0.03770014222863627,
      "7": 0.012680951934853295,
      "8": 0.0032860065932986543
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0028,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.998,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 21,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.619,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.245,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.6281,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6574,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6281,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.245,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.648,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0028,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.619,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1905,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7619,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.441659375587462,
      "home_runs": 4.498310519434997,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_STL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPHI
Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PHI
Final confidence54.0%
Calibrationraw 64.4% → blended 61.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.5% · weight 50.0% · n=221
H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3852
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.128838538096947-5.561512119078967Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-6Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.644332,
    "sample_size": 221,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5747,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.609516,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2674,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.604,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3852
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024568997522742754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02392489346883954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02367825888552211
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0230575065522852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022181856584394834
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03548944567292841,
      "1": 0.06100206113501898,
      "2": 0.09218554659343724,
      "3": 0.12247690230941134,
      "4": 0.1430601199512214,
      "5": 0.1469115729715859,
      "6": 0.13263754205791395,
      "7": 0.10528098861914106,
      "8": 0.07346939715214423,
      "9": 0.04507503065893487,
      "10": 0.0243130037995072,
      "11": 0.011529599929143212,
      "12": 0.004806875681279348,
      "13": 0.00176191346833271
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05438245959253155,
      "1": 0.09190887810673391,
      "2": 0.13201879616047396,
      "3": 0.16117354410262635,
      "4": 0.16723663783447903,
      "5": 0.1474853163352051,
      "6": 0.11054671064948712,
      "7": 0.07042430169473862,
      "8": 0.03813106703428217,
      "9": 0.017547491949631486,
      "10": 0.0068632659735929245,
      "11": 0.002281530566217812
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1047,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.674,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3852,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6495,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3852,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.604,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1047,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.128838538096947,
      "home_runs": 5.561512119078967,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_TB@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickBAL
Published scoreTB 1 - 2 BAL
Final confidence50.5%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.508516755812228-4.588794682277356Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL wins 2-1",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 1 - 2 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 1 - 2 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 1 - 2 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3571,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3571,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0357,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.9286,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 2,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "fallback": true,
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.508516755812228,
      "home_runs": 4.588794682277356,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_TOR@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickNYY
Published scoreTOR 3 - 4 NYY
Final confidence54.7%
Calibrationraw 59.1% → blended 56.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=338
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8106
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.457961555727852-4.431112801568771Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.09445,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.547225,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.547225,
    "away_win_probability": 0.452775
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.09445,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54722498425,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.590691,
    "sample_size": 338,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.566046,
    "published_confidence": 0.547225,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2341,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.024,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8106
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03016998964125038
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028093384186297105
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028087176574574466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027817368101799748
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02669899226903791
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0488382182752156,
      "1": 0.08294791775943874,
      "2": 0.12092746953719728,
      "3": 0.1513276339446955,
      "4": 0.16254938037023264,
      "5": 0.14987396423550195,
      "6": 0.11861534355315619,
      "7": 0.08058038671143727,
      "8": 0.046988504541706735,
      "9": 0.023519479123015066,
      "10": 0.010105029256380784,
      "11": 0.0037266726920221183
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07197717310720546,
      "1": 0.1197782229757137,
      "2": 0.16425157824795528,
      "3": 0.1856050731939631,
      "4": 0.17282984482813687,
      "5": 0.1326160973091495,
      "6": 0.08385372349613833,
      "7": 0.04369151125016913,
      "8": 0.018759462356531306,
      "9": 0.00663731323503757
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0823,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 8,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.625,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8106,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5472,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6179,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5472,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8106,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.024,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0823,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.625,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.375,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.457961555727852,
      "home_runs": 4.431112801568771,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260823_WAS@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIA
Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 MIA
Final confidence55.4%
Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 53.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.5% · weight 50.0% · n=342
H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2091
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.9916756392049875-5.29166144303151Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.108946,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554473,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554473,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445527
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.108946,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.5544728875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5364,
    "sample_size": 342,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53575,
    "published_confidence": 0.554473,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.087,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.436,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2091
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028115507916570755
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027306711501912943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026668681203247623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025901505529066535
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025603582324230316
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04533224645901679,
      "1": 0.07723625743473034,
      "2": 0.11366993407297167,
      "3": 0.1445041771499792,
      "4": 0.1586812456627558,
      "5": 0.1505154936582205,
      "6": 0.12332389139575387,
      "7": 0.08728178901895951,
      "8": 0.05335934197695412,
      "9": 0.028177839924239407,
      "10": 0.012853320488047404,
      "11": 0.005064462758371319
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06508841323657352,
      "1": 0.10896832473601335,
      "2": 0.15215018693569804,
      "3": 0.177182299011721,
      "4": 0.17208531095065713,
      "5": 0.13939361959549199,
      "6": 0.09417109408373343,
      "7": 0.05306008763014079,
      "8": 0.02493411371667319,
      "9": 0.009772271737519014,
      "10": 0.0031942783657786774
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0415,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.786,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 8,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.625,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2091,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5673,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2091,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.436,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0415,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.625,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.125,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.625,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9916756392049875,
      "home_runs": 5.29166144303151,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026082320260823_ATL@MILMIL58.0%71.9%55.4%50.0%3.0-5.04-2missEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.719212,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.636556,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4923,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6966
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029405013204046735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029044752147837877
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027864927760392455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02752353535099333
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02608999256823231
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037213703785265784,
      "1": 0.0638647342928528,
      "2": 0.0960546061406412,
      "3": 0.126611791580409,
      "4": 0.14626115055730407,
      "5": 0.14807532326271722,
      "6": 0.1313818176735667,
      "7": 0.10216137167498891,
      "8": 0.0696204838717246,
      "9": 0.04158016726431206,
      "10": 0.021763778607156167,
      "11": 0.009983463613351092,
      "12": 0.004013534977028443,
      "13": 0.001414072698681984
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08710316460828467,
      "1": 0.14297945816944593,
      "2": 0.18818076602104813,
      "3": 0.1985814554115541,
      "4": 0.16802117548883527,
      "5": 0.11398592300347457,
      "6": 0.06200122839029761,
      "7": 0.027040283451418592,
      "8": 0.009455490394581012,
      "9": 0.0026510550610602
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0831,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.146,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6966,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_CHC@SEACHC53.0%64.7%57.4%50.0%4.0-3.019-2hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647099,
    "sample_size": 216,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5741,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.610599,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2308,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.088,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7692
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03059391416298891
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.028499920937262953
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028254853664656868
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02776161263765708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02757836423254973
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07607217572289143,
      "1": 0.1261264485979629,
      "2": 0.17105256952865314,
      "3": 0.1897562736277807,
      "4": 0.17218915291305287,
      "5": 0.1278081478762956,
      "6": 0.07759869161168605,
      "7": 0.03853837173840944,
      "8": 0.015655805961332946,
      "9": 0.005202362421934745
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04756316584931728,
      "1": 0.08087473037644848,
      "2": 0.118310030831703,
      "3": 0.14890076161634902,
      "4": 0.1612274186148958,
      "5": 0.15019224604487863,
      "6": 0.12037124521102083,
      "7": 0.08299742610105372,
      "8": 0.049234907386643885,
      "9": 0.025127440668528647,
      "10": 0.011032908513047649,
      "11": 0.004167718786113036
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0786,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.438,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7692,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_CIN@ARIARI53.0%50.4%50.9%50.0%3.0-4.03-5hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.504044,
    "sample_size": 285,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5088,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.506422,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8308,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.132,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5862
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032123423442569306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031009699228522133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030765497032342194
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029698852343510256
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0278623539739904
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06606610360612593,
      "1": 0.11050884400533942,
      "2": 0.15389854277464524,
      "3": 0.17843954582794935,
      "4": 0.1722530183151684,
      "5": 0.13844003546373612,
      "6": 0.09263512524029263,
      "7": 0.05160702381884329,
      "8": 0.023936522970053255,
      "9": 0.009243414864433046,
      "10": 0.0029718231134131627
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06733377294506358,
      "1": 0.11250213780293444,
      "2": 0.15614450173985067,
      "3": 0.18002412690257896,
      "4": 0.17241411868424142,
      "5": 0.13716807247899201,
      "6": 0.09065073741002319,
      "7": 0.049765427915556056,
      "8": 0.022694584730608734,
      "9": 0.008597156528944102,
      "10": 0.0027053628612069376
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0166,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.202,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5862,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_CLE@COLCLE74.4%92.0%53.8%50.0%6.0-2.07-2hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 184,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.729,
    "published_confidence": 0.744307,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -8.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0667,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0667,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.046,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03387256982621436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032006558999926236
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.031727450156670355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029618327494624945
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02880959847387939
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1269699087092047,
      "1": 0.20072908535654002,
      "2": 0.23600502332776832,
      "3": 0.2063638545041465,
      "4": 0.13419843715691382,
      "5": 0.06490269461765812,
      "6": 0.023344223953533295,
      "7": 0.006244498947504126,
      "8": 0.0012422734267308058
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03189038239314067,
      "1": 0.0549993345994839,
      "2": 0.08395237887139315,
      "3": 0.11341916388500273,
      "4": 0.1356181260407958,
      "5": 0.14352478328044518,
      "6": 0.1344354866235481,
      "7": 0.11144967604078379,
      "8": 0.0817751897171326,
      "9": 0.05310582663322427,
      "10": 0.03052394409233688,
      "11": 0.015528052423066822,
      "12": 0.006991513342375864,
      "13": 0.0027861420572703865
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CLE 6 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0374,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.83,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_DET@KCKC50.5%———1.0-2.07-11hitFundamental Edge Target Review (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "DET 1 - 2 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "DET 1 - 2 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_LAA@TEXTEX53.0%56.4%50.0%50.0%3.0-4.03-5hitVariance Applied (0.6676)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.564155,
    "sample_size": 290,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532078,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2923,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.804,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0914
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029558450658310205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029422571768840267
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02917831657610404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02904418514618592
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025089642248539174
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05958553713964318,
      "1": 0.10023842725750803,
      "2": 0.1420027797503922,
      "3": 0.16940595184265647,
      "4": 0.17018829992517032,
      "5": 0.1439792649527052,
      "6": 0.10257450287617237,
      "7": 0.061538670069588734,
      "8": 0.031090378449225162,
      "9": 0.013227358594436639,
      "10": 0.004739030055597207,
      "11": 0.0014297990869044741
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06248337484113821,
      "1": 0.10485012186269466,
      "2": 0.14742283846522222,
      "3": 0.17368086214684963,
      "4": 0.1714472533595634,
      "5": 0.14180791311921234,
      "6": 0.09827923516363891,
      "7": 0.05707086281288634,
      "8": 0.027768887239661522,
      "9": 0.011321237044669101,
      "10": 0.003867413944463568
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.072,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.014,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.7143,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0914,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_MIN@SDSD58.0%67.8%56.5%50.0%3.0-5.01-8hitEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.678086,
    "sample_size": 248,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5645,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.621293,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.045,
    "away_run_delta": -0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5115,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.756,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5971
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030972545224789174
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029967162844833587
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029461933697984687
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028505586429641155
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027773626968826227
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04289866959006975,
      "1": 0.07325121250658735,
      "2": 0.10852011529092359,
      "3": 0.13948583597313188,
      "4": 0.15555157299925146,
      "5": 0.15050230082827548,
      "6": 0.12633867153187087,
      "7": 0.09201399923426208,
      "8": 0.05814280002304771,
      "9": 0.03187589683712446,
      "10": 0.015161889149967429,
      "11": 0.00625703603548786
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0879354094205259,
      "1": 0.14423609006951474,
      "2": 0.18940299432475982,
      "3": 0.19911431705636445,
      "4": 0.16757949790228727,
      "5": 0.11291250165419749,
      "6": 0.060906819658046195,
      "7": 0.02630222958590775,
      "8": 0.009093309107761191,
      "9": 0.002516831220635268
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0048,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.106,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5971,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_NYM@CHWCHW55.4%53.4%53.8%50.0%3.0-4.01-2hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.533685,
    "sample_size": 344,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5378,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535743,
    "published_confidence": 0.553781,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7239,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.052,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4523
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.035266008215349705
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03464177779427426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03427583523878647
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033669131499220406
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030039582433886606
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06327150795763732,
      "1": 0.1060981201888227,
      "2": 0.14886364468646662,
      "3": 0.1747636315529368,
      "4": 0.17167020587666534,
      "5": 0.141097802397524,
      "6": 0.09703469066869108,
      "7": 0.0558361231195794,
      "8": 0.026883446245609875,
      "9": 0.010830190114109357,
      "10": 0.0036506371919574404
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09263857102535185,
      "1": 0.15129776772713205,
      "2": 0.19612681960322015,
      "3": 0.20179260354101447,
      "4": 0.16479244366199927,
      "5": 0.10681521926821425,
      "6": 0.054953172687757054,
      "7": 0.022439656182794043,
      "8": 0.007272829695577313,
      "9": 0.001870916606939533
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0618,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.052,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 9,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4523,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_OAK@HOUOAK50.5%———4.0-1.07-6hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 1 HOU",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 1 HOU",
      "winner": "OAK"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "model_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner": "OAK",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "OAK",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "OAK",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner": "OAK",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_PIT@LADLAD55.4%58.6%53.5%50.0%3.0-4.00-4hitEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 342,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56075,
    "published_confidence": 0.554473,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0996,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7665
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032597840893713176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03160959288314978
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030052613536193665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02914152756469603
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02866385179686543
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05537013414908459,
      "1": 0.09349601253313723,
      "2": 0.13394548405754775,
      "3": 0.16280979749055816,
      "4": 0.16789991235110238,
      "5": 0.14690543922714444,
      "6": 0.109054290305543,
      "7": 0.06868550709473853,
      "8": 0.03670328493808046,
      "9": 0.01664034150269349,
      "10": 0.006400840535939102,
      "11": 0.002088955814430754
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08104681892661704,
      "1": 0.1337717205381165,
      "2": 0.17899124017021173,
      "3": 0.19415043425124903,
      "4": 0.1707198734977614,
      "5": 0.1216939307499221,
      "6": 0.07032227026812499,
      "7": 0.03294245577918217,
      "8": 0.012510025218876524,
      "9": 0.0038512305999385747
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0402,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7665,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_SF@BOSBOS62.8%87.5%53.8%50.0%2.0-5.04-5hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.875344,
    "sample_size": 184,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.706672,
    "published_confidence": 0.628061,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5664,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.648,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.245
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030181636169466817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029256009319787654
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028821781546979404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027937859459201388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02773031170892547
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028606244020770045,
      "1": 0.04948935058864049,
      "2": 0.07625124672882479,
      "3": 0.1046324563519952,
      "4": 0.12787044336612133,
      "5": 0.13917402873125628,
      "6": 0.13490576384832081,
      "7": 0.11646276307393151,
      "8": 0.08954223942729118,
      "9": 0.06131307422043252,
      "10": 0.03739060655845515,
      "11": 0.02030748807263746,
      "12": 0.009822774661670934,
      "13": 0.004231520349652346
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10873055729022563,
      "1": 0.17495011973027255,
      "2": 0.21686256009551372,
      "3": 0.20709166652518185,
      "4": 0.1523520744190943,
      "5": 0.08634592118292367,
      "6": 0.03770014222863627,
      "7": 0.012680951934853295,
      "8": 0.0032860065932986543
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0028,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.998,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 21,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.619,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.245,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_STL@PHIPHI54.0%64.4%57.5%50.0%4.0-5.04-6hitEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.644332,
    "sample_size": 221,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5747,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.609516,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2674,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.604,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3852
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024568997522742754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02392489346883954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02367825888552211
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0230575065522852
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022181856584394834
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03548944567292841,
      "1": 0.06100206113501898,
      "2": 0.09218554659343724,
      "3": 0.12247690230941134,
      "4": 0.1430601199512214,
      "5": 0.1469115729715859,
      "6": 0.13263754205791395,
      "7": 0.10528098861914106,
      "8": 0.07346939715214423,
      "9": 0.04507503065893487,
      "10": 0.0243130037995072,
      "11": 0.011529599929143212,
      "12": 0.004806875681279348,
      "13": 0.00176191346833271
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05438245959253155,
      "1": 0.09190887810673391,
      "2": 0.13201879616047396,
      "3": 0.16117354410262635,
      "4": 0.16723663783447903,
      "5": 0.1474853163352051,
      "6": 0.11054671064948712,
      "7": 0.07042430169473862,
      "8": 0.03813106703428217,
      "9": 0.017547491949631486,
      "10": 0.0068632659735929245,
      "11": 0.002281530566217812
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1047,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.674,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3852,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_TB@BALBAL50.5%———1.0-2.03-1missEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 1 - 2 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TB 1 - 2 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 28,
        "published_winner": "BAL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3571,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_TOR@NYYNYY54.7%59.1%54.1%50.0%3.0-4.03-8hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.590691,
    "sample_size": 338,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5414,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.566046,
    "published_confidence": 0.547225,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2341,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.024,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8106
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03016998964125038
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028093384186297105
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028087176574574466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027817368101799748
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02669899226903791
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0488382182752156,
      "1": 0.08294791775943874,
      "2": 0.12092746953719728,
      "3": 0.1513276339446955,
      "4": 0.16254938037023264,
      "5": 0.14987396423550195,
      "6": 0.11861534355315619,
      "7": 0.08058038671143727,
      "8": 0.046988504541706735,
      "9": 0.023519479123015066,
      "10": 0.010105029256380784,
      "11": 0.0037266726920221183
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07197717310720546,
      "1": 0.1197782229757137,
      "2": 0.16425157824795528,
      "3": 0.1856050731939631,
      "4": 0.17282984482813687,
      "5": 0.1326160973091495,
      "6": 0.08385372349613833,
      "7": 0.04369151125016913,
      "8": 0.018759462356531306,
      "9": 0.00663731323503757
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0823,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 8,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.625,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8106,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082320260823_WAS@MIAMIA55.4%53.6%53.5%50.0%3.0-4.02-6hitVariance Applied (-0.3)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5364,
    "sample_size": 342,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5351,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53575,
    "published_confidence": 0.554473,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.087,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.436,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2091
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028115507916570755
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027306711501912943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026668681203247623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025901505529066535
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025603582324230316
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04533224645901679,
      "1": 0.07723625743473034,
      "2": 0.11366993407297167,
      "3": 0.1445041771499792,
      "4": 0.1586812456627558,
      "5": 0.1505154936582205,
      "6": 0.12332389139575387,
      "7": 0.08728178901895951,
      "8": 0.05335934197695412,
      "9": 0.028177839924239407,
      "10": 0.012853320488047404,
      "11": 0.005064462758371319
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06508841323657352,
      "1": 0.10896832473601335,
      "2": 0.15215018693569804,
      "3": 0.177182299011721,
      "4": 0.17208531095065713,
      "5": 0.13939361959549199,
      "6": 0.09417109408373343,
      "7": 0.05306008763014079,
      "8": 0.02493411371667319,
      "9": 0.009772271737519014,
      "10": 0.0031942783657786774
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0415,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.786,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 8,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.625,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2091,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 2.1667,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.0333
}
R
{
  "mae": 1.4667,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2667
}
ER
{
  "mae": 1.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1667
}
BB
{
  "mae": 1.6333,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667
}
SO
{
  "mae": 2.2333,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.1
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.6333,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 3.9667,
  "mae_innings": 1.3222,
  "bias_outs": 2.3667
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026082320260823_ATL@MILawayTyler MahleTyler MahleTrue5.25.0-251-45/62/28/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.526470588235294,
      "WHIP": 1.3058823529411765,
      "IP": 113.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.397,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0901,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0077,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0111,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 193,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 0.9231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02198,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 87.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0176,
            "WHIP": 1.0765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 113.1,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 473.0,
            "Pitches": 1839.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7143,
            "R": 2.7619,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 1.9048,
            "SO": 5.1429,
            "HR": 0.7619,
            "BF": 22.5238,
            "Pitches": 87.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5265,
            "WHIP": 1.3059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.112,
        "predicted_H": 4.686,
        "predicted_BB": 1.67,
        "predicted_SO": 5.517,
        "predicted_HR": 0.643,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3156,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1086
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.112,
          "final": 3.3574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.686,
          "final": 4.8214,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.67,
          "final": 1.8123,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.517,
          "final": 6.5878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.643,
          "final": 0.797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3156,
          "final": 3.3156,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1086,
          "final": 1.1086,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.0176470588235293,
        "WHIP": 1.076470588235294,
        "K9": 8.1,
        "HR9": 0.7941176470588235,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8376069370282262,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5769,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8615,
        "offense_index": 1.0458,
        "defense_index": 1.1619,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0972
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 49,
        "win_pct": 0.6231,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 485.0,
        "run_differential": 163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9846,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
        "offense_index": 1.111,
        "defense_index": 1.2026,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3283
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2311,
        "offense_edge": 0.0458,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.111,
        "defense_strength": 0.1619,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2026,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9912,
        "run_prevention": 1.0131,
        "strikeout": 0.9842
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641816",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641816",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 421.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4565,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0539,
            "whiff_percent": 22.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1726,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0664,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0231
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641816",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.51332979838516,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.0039927237517,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.51332979838516,
                "release_spin_rate": 2158.0039927237517,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5133,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.004,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0231,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1649,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0901,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0077,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0111,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641816",
            "espn_id": 34973,
            "player_name": "Tyler Mahle",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 193,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 193,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 345,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 79,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 4.5264,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 168,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 13,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 113.1,
              "ip_rank": 91,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 82,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 54,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 60,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 66,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.57647,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.3058,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.8,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0111,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_ATL@MILhomeShane DrohanShane DrohanTrue5.15.0-11211/82/35/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.2458471760797343,
      "IP": 100.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.262,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.185,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9843,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0183,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0135,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 204,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 396.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 79.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9178,
            "WHIP": 1.4384,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49315,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12329
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 830.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2722,
            "WHIP": 1.3101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47468,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36076,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98734,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09494
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 100.1,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 92.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 421.0,
            "Pitches": 1579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.72,
            "R": 1.92,
            "H": 3.68,
            "BB": 1.32,
            "SO": 3.96,
            "HR": 0.36,
            "BF": 16.84,
            "Pitches": 63.16
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2458,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91694,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3289,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98671,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0897
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.693,
        "predicted_H": 4.719,
        "predicted_BB": 2.025,
        "predicted_SO": 4.811,
        "predicted_HR": 0.566,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8609,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3526
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.693,
          "final": 1.9812,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.719,
          "final": 3.5758,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.025,
          "final": 2.0145,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.811,
          "final": 4.8905,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.566,
          "final": 0.7485,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8609,
          "final": 4.8609,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3526,
          "final": 1.3526,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.272151898734178,
        "WHIP": 1.3101265822784811,
        "K9": 8.88607594936709,
        "HR9": 0.8544303797468354,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9845801313692538,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675660",
      "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "deboosted"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 49,
        "win_pct": 0.6231,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 485.0,
        "run_differential": 163.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9846,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7308,
        "offense_index": 1.111,
        "defense_index": 1.2026,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.7,
          "run_differential": 32.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3283
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 55,
        "win_pct": 0.5769,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8615,
        "offense_index": 1.0458,
        "defense_index": 1.1619,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0972
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2311,
        "offense_edge": 0.111,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0458,
        "defense_strength": 0.2026,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1619,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0135,
        "run_prevention": 0.9755,
        "strikeout": 1.0033
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675660",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675660",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 408.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7436,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7969,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.175,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2386,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0272
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675660",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.41202882500774,
              "release_spin_rate": 2548.1985431891367,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.41202882500774,
                "release_spin_rate": 2548.1985431891367,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2548.1985,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0272,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.185,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9843,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0183,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0135,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675660",
            "espn_id": 4315203,
            "player_name": "Shane Drohan",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 204,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 204,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 133,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 99,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 92,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 126,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 219,
              "ip_value": 100.1,
              "ip_rank": 105,
              "h_value": 92.0,
              "h_rank": 108,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 118,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 160,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 109,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 89,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.880399,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.2458,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9843,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0135,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0183,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CHC@SEAawayShota ImanagaShota ImanagaTrue5.22.0-1121-15/51/26/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.767441860465116,
      "WHIP": 1.0883720930232557,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1665,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0349,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 1.0307,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 104,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 0.9882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24706
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0176,
            "WHIP": 1.1294,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33529,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17647,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21176
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 29.0,
            "BF": 578.0,
            "Pitches": 2256.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.44,
            "H": 4.96,
            "BB": 1.28,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.16,
            "BF": 23.12,
            "Pitches": 90.24
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7674,
            "WHIP": 1.0884,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86512,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22326,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97674,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20233
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.174,
        "predicted_H": 5.112,
        "predicted_BB": 1.149,
        "predicted_SO": 5.776,
        "predicted_HR": 1.206,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4521,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1049
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.174,
          "final": 2.1008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.112,
          "final": 5.0649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.149,
          "final": 1.0864,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.776,
          "final": 4.6089,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.206,
          "final": 0.699,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4521,
          "final": 3.4521,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1049,
          "final": 1.1049,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.0176470588235293,
        "WHIP": 1.1294117647058823,
        "K9": 8.894117647058822,
        "HR9": 1.9058823529411764,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8389304664399909,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5692,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": 98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3615,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.024,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1167
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4769,
        "runs_scored": 511.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9308,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2692,
        "offense_index": 0.8801,
        "defense_index": 1.0461,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0263
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.143,
        "offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1199,
        "defense_strength": 0.024,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0461,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0112,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0139
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 553.0,
            "k_percent": 24.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5632,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6988,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0631,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5086,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1912
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.51101267841268,
              "release_spin_rate": 2044.6115045406948,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.51101267841268,
                "release_spin_rate": 2044.6115045406948,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.511,
              "release_spin_rate": 2044.6115,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1912,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3658,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1665,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9858,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0349,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 1.0307,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_id": 5134630,
            "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 104,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 104,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 36,
              "era_value": 3.7674,
              "era_rank": 36.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 46,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 143.1,
              "ip_rank": 22,
              "h_value": 124.0,
              "h_rank": 43,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 45,
              "hr_value": 29.0,
              "hr_rank": 3,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 119,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 27,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.790697,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.0883,
              "whip_rank": 14.0,
              "war_value": 1.55,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9858,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0307,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0349,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CHC@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CHC@SEAhomeBryce MillerBryce MillerTrue5.24.1-41652/20/75/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7137546468401483,
      "WHIP": 1.037174721189591,
      "IP": 89.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.644,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5262,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9553,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
      "walk_factor": 0.922,
      "homer_factor": 0.943,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 128,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 89.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.714,
      "season_WHIP": 1.037,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1772,
            "WHIP": 1.4051,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79747,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10127,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22785
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 868.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1037,
            "WHIP": 1.2439,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56707,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0061,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2378,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93293,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20122
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 89.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 41.0,
            "H": 75.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 354.0,
            "Pitches": 1360.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3125,
            "R": 2.5625,
            "H": 4.6875,
            "BB": 1.125,
            "SO": 5.4375,
            "HR": 0.9375,
            "BF": 22.125,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7138,
            "WHIP": 1.0372,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41264,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83643,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20074,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97026,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16729
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.316,
        "predicted_H": 5.492,
        "predicted_BB": 1.56,
        "predicted_SO": 4.538,
        "predicted_HR": 1.052,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4631,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2908
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.316,
          "final": 2.2724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.492,
          "final": 3.9185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.56,
          "final": 0.8571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.538,
          "final": 4.7462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.052,
          "final": 0.578,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4631,
          "final": 5.4631,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2908,
          "final": 1.2908,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.103658536585366,
        "WHIP": 1.2439024390243902,
        "K9": 8.396341463414634,
        "HR9": 1.8109756097560976,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0764690245461601,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4769,
        "runs_scored": 511.0,
        "runs_allowed": 555.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9308,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2692,
        "offense_index": 0.8801,
        "defense_index": 1.0461,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.0,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0263
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5692,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 567.0,
        "run_differential": 98.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3615,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.024,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1167
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.143,
        "offense_edge": -0.1199,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "defense_strength": 0.0461,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.024,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9898,
        "run_prevention": 1.0258,
        "strikeout": 0.9841
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 328.0,
            "k_percent": 24.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3448,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9466,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 55.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6451,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3793,
            "regression_edge": 0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.975,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0425
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.68499021471726,
              "release_spin_rate": 2135.763721660463,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.68499021471726,
                "release_spin_rate": 2135.763721660463,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2135.7637,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0425,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3038,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5262,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9553,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
          "walk_factor": 0.922,
          "homer_factor": 0.943,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682243",
            "espn_id": 4654313,
            "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 128,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 128,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 414,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 120,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 132,
              "era_value": 3.7137,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 168,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 67,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 89.2,
              "ip_rank": 128,
              "h_value": 75.0,
              "h_rank": 141,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 143,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 18.0,
              "bb_rank": 293,
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": 111,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.732342,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.0371,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9553,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9553,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.943,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CHC@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CIN@ARIawayAndrew AbbottAndrew AbbottTrue5.26.013416/72/22/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.069377990430621,
      "WHIP": 1.3995215311004783,
      "IP": 139.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.359,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3514,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0299,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 1.0307,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.9,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 52,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 941.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 94.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4451,
            "WHIP": 1.372,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4939,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87805,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4939,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80488,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10976
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 604.0,
            "Pitches": 2414.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4231,
            "R": 2.5769,
            "H": 4.9615,
            "BB": 2.5385,
            "SO": 4.1538,
            "HR": 0.6923,
            "BF": 23.2308,
            "Pitches": 92.8462
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0694,
            "WHIP": 1.3995,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45215,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92584,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77512,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12919
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.765,
        "predicted_H": 4.905,
        "predicted_BB": 2.739,
        "predicted_SO": 4.184,
        "predicted_HR": 0.576,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5143,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3866
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.765,
          "final": 2.8633,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.905,
          "final": 5.3629,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.739,
          "final": 2.43,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.184,
          "final": 3.2708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.576,
          "final": 0.3351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5143,
          "final": 4.5143,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3866,
          "final": 1.3866,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.4451219512195115,
        "WHIP": 1.371951219512195,
        "K9": 7.24390243902439,
        "HR9": 0.9878048780487804,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0055848782046966,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4769,
        "runs_scored": 534.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": -92.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7077,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8154,
        "offense_index": 0.9198,
        "defense_index": 0.9275,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1418
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5231,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5077,
        "offense_index": 1.0214,
        "defense_index": 0.9908,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0087
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1331,
        "offense_edge": -0.0802,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0214,
        "defense_strength": -0.0725,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0092,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9916,
        "run_prevention": 1.0173,
        "strikeout": 0.9943
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.9,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4913,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0547,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2952,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5164,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1476
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.28908796539285,
              "release_spin_rate": 2447.345837540214,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.28908796539285,
                "release_spin_rate": 2447.345837540214,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2891,
              "release_spin_rate": 2447.3458,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1476,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0546,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3514,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0299,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 1.0307,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_id": 4414528,
            "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 52,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 52,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 231,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 36,
              "era_value": 4.0693,
              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 92,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 139.1,
              "ip_rank": 31,
              "h_value": 129.0,
              "h_rank": 27,
              "er_value": 63.0,
              "er_rank": 28,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 36,
              "bb_value": 66.0,
              "bb_rank": 2,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.9760766,
              "k_per_9_rank": 62,
              "whip_value": 1.3995,
              "whip_rank": 51.0,
              "war_value": 2.28,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0299,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0299,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0307,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9589,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CIN@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CIN@ARIhomeMitch BrattMitch BrattTrue5.13.0-71322/51/32/3
Last 10 before this game (8 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.172727272727273,
      "WHIP": 1.4727272727272729,
      "IP": 36.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.583,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1555,
      "sample_weight": 0.564,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9478,
      "walk_factor": 1.0541,
      "homer_factor": 1.0016,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 13.8,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 15.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 278,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683352",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.3462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 159.0,
            "Pitches": 605.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 3.125,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 19.875,
            "Pitches": 75.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1727,
            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 159.0,
            "Pitches": 605.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 3.125,
            "HR": 0.625,
            "BF": 19.875,
            "Pitches": 75.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1727,
            "WHIP": 1.4727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.341,
        "predicted_H": 4.324,
        "predicted_BB": 2.623,
        "predicted_SO": 4.002,
        "predicted_HR": 0.588,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1519,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3689
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.341,
          "final": 1.6537,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.324,
          "final": 3.133,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.623,
          "final": 1.7912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.002,
          "final": 2.976,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.588,
          "final": 0.7991,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1519,
          "final": 4.1519,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3689,
          "final": 1.3689,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.2,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.172727272727272,
        "WHIP": 1.4727272727272724,
        "K9": 6.136363636363636,
        "HR9": 1.227272727272727,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9774598782046966,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683352",
      "player_name": "Mitch Bratt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5231,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5077,
        "offense_index": 1.0214,
        "defense_index": 0.9908,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0087
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4769,
        "runs_scored": 534.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": -92.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7077,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8154,
        "offense_index": 0.9198,
        "defense_index": 0.9275,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1418
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1331,
        "offense_edge": 0.0214,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0802,
        "defense_strength": -0.0092,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0725,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0083,
        "run_prevention": 0.9814,
        "strikeout": 1.0104
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683352",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683352",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 141.0,
            "k_percent": 15.7,
            "bb_percent": 13.8,
            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8029,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0179,
            "whiff_percent": 15.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0944,
            "command_and_miss": -1.1429,
            "regression_edge": 0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.3857,
            "bb_edge": -1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1793
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683352",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.72449759488674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.606582229385,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.72449759488674,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.606582229385,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.7245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.6066,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1793,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2804,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1555,
          "sample_weight": 0.564,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9478,
          "walk_factor": 1.0541,
          "homer_factor": 1.0016,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.031,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683352",
            "espn_id": 5123768,
            "player_name": "Mitch Bratt",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 278,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 278,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 529,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 177,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 151,
              "era_value": 4.1727,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 296,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 36.2,
              "ip_rank": 361,
              "h_value": 32.0,
              "h_rank": 361,
              "er_value": 17.0,
              "er_rank": 332,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 285,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 223,
              "k_value": 25.0,
              "k_rank": 425,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.1363635,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 1.4727,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0074,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0074,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0305,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CIN@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CLE@COLawayFoster GriffinFoster GriffinTrue5.25.0-21212/53/36/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.18013856812933,
      "WHIP": 1.1085450346420322,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.773,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0697,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 1.043,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 954.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9834,
            "WHIP": 1.1105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33149,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1989,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8453,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1326
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 589.0,
            "Pitches": 2326.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.04,
            "R": 2.32,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.24,
            "HR": 0.92,
            "BF": 23.56,
            "Pitches": 93.04
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1801,
            "WHIP": 1.1085,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35335,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86605,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24249,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90762,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15935
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.602,
        "predicted_H": 5.658,
        "predicted_BB": 1.526,
        "predicted_SO": 4.703,
        "predicted_HR": 0.977,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1536,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2739
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.602,
          "final": 1.9285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.658,
          "final": 4.1201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.526,
          "final": 2.1457,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.703,
          "final": 5.2483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.977,
          "final": 0.9867,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1536,
          "final": 4.1536,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2739,
          "final": 1.2739,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 2.983425414364641,
        "WHIP": 1.1104972375690607,
        "K9": 7.607734806629834,
        "HR9": 1.1933701657458564,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8341860311185243,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656492",
      "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1163,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1163,
        "offense_index": 0.8914,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0241
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.3906,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": -130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0156,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7969,
        "offense_index": 1.0654,
        "defense_index": 0.7741,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2525
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2284,
        "offense_edge": -0.1086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0654,
        "defense_strength": 0.0902,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0092,
        "run_prevention": 0.99,
        "strikeout": 1.0016
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656492",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656492",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 563.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8595,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1556,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0552,
            "command_and_miss": 0.075,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2288
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656492",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.83486199103383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.645721489828,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.83486199103383,
                "release_spin_rate": 2157.645721489828,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8349,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.6457,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2288,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6341,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0697,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9903,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 1.043,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656492",
            "espn_id": 33773,
            "player_name": "Foster Griffin",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 14,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 14,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 253,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 19,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 18,
              "era_value": 3.1801,
              "era_rank": 13.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 153,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 144.1,
              "ip_rank": 20,
              "h_value": 125.0,
              "h_rank": 36,
              "er_value": 51.0,
              "er_rank": 78,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 14,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 91,
              "k_value": 131.0,
              "k_rank": 36,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.1685915,
              "k_per_9_rank": 48,
              "whip_value": 1.1085,
              "whip_rank": 16.0,
              "war_value": 3.48,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.043,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CLE@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_CLE@COLhomeTomoyuki SuganoTomoyuki SuganoTrue5.23.0-865-17/92/14/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.702247191011236,
      "WHIP": 1.2640449438202246,
      "IP": 118.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.394,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.1749,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0999,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9114,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 1.22,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 13.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.395,
      "barrel_percent": 13.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 74,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 443.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1786,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 880.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 1.5,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5301,
            "WHIP": 1.2651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61446,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10241,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16265,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59639,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27108
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.2,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 498.0,
            "Pitches": 1900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8182,
            "R": 2.9545,
            "H": 5.5909,
            "BB": 1.2273,
            "SO": 3.1364,
            "HR": 1.1818,
            "BF": 22.6364,
            "Pitches": 86.3636
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7022,
            "WHIP": 1.264,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52247,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22753,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58146,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2191
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.012,
        "predicted_H": 5.857,
        "predicted_BB": 1.143,
        "predicted_SO": 3.798,
        "predicted_HR": 1.376,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8305,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2473
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.012,
          "final": 4.2916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.857,
          "final": 6.3465,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.143,
          "final": 1.51,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.798,
          "final": 3.8845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.376,
          "final": 1.6432,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8305,
          "final": 4.8305,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2473,
          "final": 1.2473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 15,
        "ERA": 5.530120481927711,
        "WHIP": 1.2650602409638556,
        "K9": 5.367469879518072,
        "HR9": 2.4397590361445785,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1245533013042397,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.3906,
        "runs_scored": 612.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": -130.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0156,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7812,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7969,
        "offense_index": 1.0654,
        "defense_index": 0.7741,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2525
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4884,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 531.0,
        "run_differential": -15.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1163,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1163,
        "offense_index": 0.8914,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0241
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2284,
        "offense_edge": 0.0654,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1086,
        "defense_strength": -0.2259,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9884,
        "run_prevention": 1.0166,
        "strikeout": 1.0018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 463.0,
            "k_percent": 13.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.4,
            "woba": 0.353,
            "xwoba": 0.395,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 13.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.4927,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1644,
            "whiff_percent": 18.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.5417,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7086,
            "regression_edge": -1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.4,
            "barrel_edge": -1.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0916
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.28380805083835,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.377125414763,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.28380805083835,
                "release_spin_rate": 2297.377125414763,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2838,
              "release_spin_rate": 2297.3771,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0916,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6545,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.1749,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0999,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9114,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 1.22,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.042,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_id": 4142423,
            "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 74,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 74,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 329,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 68,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 73,
              "era_value": 4.7022,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 11,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 94,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 118.2,
              "ip_rank": 77,
              "h_value": 123.0,
              "h_rank": 44,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 33,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 6,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 168,
              "k_value": 69.0,
              "k_rank": 158,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.233146,
              "k_per_9_rank": 55,
              "whip_value": 1.264,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.95,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0999,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.2,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9114,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_CLE@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_DET@KCawayJacob WaguespackJacob WaguespackTrue5.01.1-110222/10/17/1
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9518072289156625,
      "WHIP": 0.8313253012048193,
      "IP": 27.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.317,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.4,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2019,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9797,
      "walk_factor": 0.9946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9487,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.241,
      "xwoba": 0.269,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 172,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 27.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.952,
      "season_WHIP": 0.831,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.544,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5258,
        "prior_weight": 0.4742
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621097",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 19.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 50.0,
            "Pitches": 182.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 18.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.825,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.45,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 386.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.2857,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 0.6667,
            "BB": 0.4286,
            "SO": 0.7619,
            "HR": 0.2381,
            "BF": 5.0952,
            "Pitches": 18.381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9518,
            "WHIP": 0.8313,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21687,
            "H_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57831,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.178,
        "predicted_H": 2.252,
        "predicted_BB": 1.06,
        "predicted_SO": 2.03,
        "predicted_HR": 0.609,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4524,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0779
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5503,
      "form_weight": 0.4497,
      "form_reliability": 0.5258,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.544,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5258,
        "prior_weight": 0.4742
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.178,
          "final": 0.5297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.252,
          "final": 2.1133,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.06,
          "final": 0.4766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.03,
          "final": 4.7652,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.609,
          "final": 0.2738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4524,
          "final": 3.4524,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0779,
          "final": 1.0779,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 13.1,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 6,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.6999999999999997,
        "WHIP": 0.825,
        "K9": 4.05,
        "HR9": 2.025,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9111418015747488,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.544,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5258,
          "prior_weight": 0.4742
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621097",
      "player_name": "Jacob Waguespack",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4729,
        "runs_scored": 580.0,
        "runs_allowed": 503.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5969,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4961,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8992,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.147,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0546
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4351,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -95.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7252,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1908,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.916,
        "offense_index": 0.9371,
        "defense_index": 0.9097,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0393
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0153,
        "offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0629,
        "defense_strength": 0.147,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0903,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.976,
        "strikeout": 1.0046
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621097",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621097",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 102.0,
            "k_percent": 15.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.241,
            "xwoba": 0.269,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 23.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.4471,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.254,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.1709,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4679,
            "regression_edge": -0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0672
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621097",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 17,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 17,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.72595259963467,
              "release_spin_rate": 1976.1986715096496,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 17,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.72595259963467,
                "release_spin_rate": 1976.1986715096496,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.726,
              "release_spin_rate": 1976.1987,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0672,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4798,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2019,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9797,
          "walk_factor": 0.9946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9487,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "621097",
            "espn_id": 37726,
            "player_name": "Jacob Waguespack",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 172,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 172,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 345,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 345,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 1.9518,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 397,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 3.0,
              "hld_rank": 194,
              "ip_value": 27.2,
              "ip_rank": 425,
              "h_value": 14.0,
              "h_rank": 546,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 595,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 285,
              "bb_value": 9.0,
              "bb_rank": 475,
              "k_value": 16.0,
              "k_rank": 498,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.204819,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31,
              "whip_value": 0.8313,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.93,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 69,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_DET@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_DET@KChomeDaniel Lynch IVDaniel Lynch IVTrue5.04.1-20220/42/14/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8333333333333335,
      "WHIP": 1.0185185185185186,
      "IP": 54.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 49,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1529,
      "sample_weight": 0.784,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.987,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
      "walk_factor": 0.9733,
      "homer_factor": 0.9612,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.26,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 167,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 54.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.833,
      "season_WHIP": 1.019,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.82,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6839,
        "prior_weight": 0.3161
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 49,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 43.0,
            "Pitches": 140.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 8.6,
            "Pitches": 28.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3,
            "WHIP": 1.4,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 64.0,
            "Pitches": 214.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 6.4,
            "Pitches": 21.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0213,
            "WHIP": 1.2128,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44681,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25532,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.51064,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12766
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 49,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3469,
            "R": 0.4286,
            "H": 0.7959,
            "BB": 0.3265,
            "SO": 0.8367,
            "HR": 0.0816,
            "BF": 4.449,
            "Pitches": 16.2041
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8333,
            "WHIP": 1.0185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31481,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72222,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75926,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.542,
        "predicted_H": 2.776,
        "predicted_BB": 1.003,
        "predicted_SO": 2.181,
        "predicted_HR": 0.439,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7167,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2843
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4836,
      "form_weight": 0.5164,
      "form_reliability": 0.6839,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.82,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6839,
        "prior_weight": 0.3161
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.542,
          "final": 0.7964,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.776,
          "final": 1.4337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.003,
          "final": 1.4851,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.181,
          "final": 3.0606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.439,
          "final": 0.2267,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7167,
          "final": 4.7167,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2843,
          "final": 1.2843,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 8,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 4.021276595744681,
        "WHIP": 1.2127659574468086,
        "K9": 4.595744680851064,
        "HR9": 1.148936170212766,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9764652331951249,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 0.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.82,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6839,
          "prior_weight": 0.3161
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663738",
      "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4351,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": -95.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7252,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1908,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.916,
        "offense_index": 0.9371,
        "defense_index": 0.9097,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0393
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4729,
        "runs_scored": 580.0,
        "runs_allowed": 503.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5969,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4961,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8992,
        "offense_index": 1.0053,
        "defense_index": 1.147,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0546
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0153,
        "offense_edge": -0.0629,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0053,
        "defense_strength": -0.0903,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.147,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9977,
        "run_prevention": 1.0091,
        "strikeout": 1.0
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 196.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.26,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9849,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6966,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.543,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0336,
            "regression_edge": -1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0047
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 21,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 21,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84074399946635,
              "release_spin_rate": 2100.4592606198853,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 21,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84074399946635,
                "release_spin_rate": 2100.4592606198853,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8407,
              "release_spin_rate": 2100.4593,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0047,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0339,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1529,
          "sample_weight": 0.784,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.987,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
          "walk_factor": 0.9733,
          "homer_factor": 0.9612,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_id": 41227,
            "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 167,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 167,
              "gp_value": 49.0,
              "gp_rank": 79,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 241,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 2.8333,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 168,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 126,
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 38,
              "ip_value": 54.0,
              "ip_rank": 233,
              "h_value": 39.0,
              "h_rank": 299,
              "er_value": 17.0,
              "er_rank": 332,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 343,
              "bb_value": 16.0,
              "bb_rank": 332,
              "k_value": 41.0,
              "k_rank": 314,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.8333335,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.0185,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.95,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9898,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9791,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9696,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9951,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 71,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_DET@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_LAA@TEXawayYusei KikuchiYusei KikuchiTrue4.15.024516/74/13/4
Last 10 before this game (7 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.806451612903226,
      "WHIP": 1.5806451612903225,
      "IP": 31.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.429,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1665,
      "sample_weight": 0.532,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0142,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0049,
      "walk_factor": 1.0096,
      "homer_factor": 1.0414,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 524,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 390.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4844,
            "WHIP": 1.4062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60938,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42188,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17188,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 142.0,
            "Pitches": 567.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8571,
            "R": 2.8571,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 20.2857,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8065,
            "WHIP": 1.5806,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64516,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12903,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45161,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 142.0,
            "Pitches": 567.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8571,
            "R": 2.8571,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 20.2857,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8065,
            "WHIP": 1.5806,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64516,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12903,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45161,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06452,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.468,
        "predicted_H": 4.333,
        "predicted_BB": 1.747,
        "predicted_SO": 4.61,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1258,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4031
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.468,
          "final": 2.2218,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.333,
          "final": 5.2099,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.747,
          "final": 2.9322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.61,
          "final": 3.237,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.2398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1258,
          "final": 5.1258,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4031,
          "final": 1.4031,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 31.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.806451612903227,
        "WHIP": 1.5806451612903227,
        "K9": 9.580645161290324,
        "HR9": 0.870967741935484,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-04-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1639518136885678,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 534.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": -68.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5231,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6308,
        "offense_index": 0.9145,
        "defense_index": 0.97,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4923,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 564.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9692,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3385,
        "offense_index": 0.8836,
        "defense_index": 1.0354,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0868
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0272,
        "offense_edge": -0.0855,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1164,
        "defense_strength": -0.03,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0354,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0027,
        "run_prevention": 0.9857,
        "strikeout": 1.0085
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 133.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6672,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.2562,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6135,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0493,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0286
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.41511193541719,
              "release_spin_rate": 2188.872593972776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.41511193541719,
                "release_spin_rate": 2188.872593972776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4151,
              "release_spin_rate": 2188.8726,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0286,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2042,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1665,
          "sample_weight": 0.532,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0142,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0049,
          "walk_factor": 1.0096,
          "homer_factor": 1.0414,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_id": 41415,
            "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 524,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 524,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 557,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 189,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 173,
              "era_value": 5.8064,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 500,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 216,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 31.0,
              "ip_rank": 402,
              "h_value": 35.0,
              "h_rank": 332,
              "er_value": 20.0,
              "er_rank": 283,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 406,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 366,
              "k_value": 33.0,
              "k_rank": 368,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.580646,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.5806,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.04,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0026,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_LAA@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_LAA@TEXhomeCal QuantrillCal QuantrillTrue5.26.0120-23/65/07/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.128755364806867,
      "WHIP": 1.1459227467811157,
      "IP": 77.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.926,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1341,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0114,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9297,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.9891,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.4,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 176,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 77.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.129,
      "season_WHIP": 1.146,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.562,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7568,
        "prior_weight": 0.2432
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 342.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.6,
            "Pitches": 68.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1096,
            "WHIP": 0.7808,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12329,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57534,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90411,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0411
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 189.0,
            "Pitches": 683.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.9,
            "Pitches": 68.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7194,
            "WHIP": 1.0576,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30216,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79856,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25899,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10791
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 323.0,
            "Pitches": 1215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.0385,
            "R": 1.2692,
            "H": 2.5769,
            "BB": 0.8462,
            "SO": 2.0769,
            "HR": 0.3462,
            "BF": 12.4231,
            "Pitches": 46.7308
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1288,
            "WHIP": 1.1459,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34764,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86266,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28326,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69528,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11588
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.416,
        "predicted_H": 3.697,
        "predicted_BB": 1.292,
        "predicted_SO": 3.999,
        "predicted_HR": 0.459,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6703,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0456
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4528,
      "form_weight": 0.5472,
      "form_reliability": 0.7568,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.562,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7568,
        "prior_weight": 0.2432
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.416,
          "final": 1.2277,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.697,
          "final": 3.3814,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.292,
          "final": 2.9708,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.999,
          "final": 3.9995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.459,
          "final": 0.2512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6703,
          "final": 2.6703,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0456,
          "final": 1.0456,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.719424460431655,
        "WHIP": 1.0575539568345325,
        "K9": 6.604316546762591,
        "HR9": 0.9712230215827339,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8035839789241213,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.562,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7568,
          "prior_weight": 0.2432
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.4923,
        "runs_scored": 516.0,
        "runs_allowed": 564.0,
        "run_differential": -48.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9692,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3385,
        "offense_index": 0.8836,
        "defense_index": 1.0354,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0868
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 534.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": -68.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5231,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6308,
        "offense_index": 0.9145,
        "defense_index": 0.97,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.114
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0272,
        "offense_edge": -0.1164,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0855,
        "defense_strength": 0.0354,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.03,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0056,
        "run_prevention": 0.9814,
        "strikeout": 1.0077
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "615698",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 285.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8945,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5201,
            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1649,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5836,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9714,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0059
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 61,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 61,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.81945726484963,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.6205613647526,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 61,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.81945726484963,
                "release_spin_rate": 1952.6205613647526,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8195,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.6206,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0059,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0424,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1341,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0114,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9297,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.9891,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "615698",
            "espn_id": 39875,
            "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 176,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 176,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 231,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 171,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 132,
              "era_value": 3.1287,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 117,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 77.2,
              "ip_rank": 147,
              "h_value": 67.0,
              "h_rank": 156,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 195,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 160,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 223,
              "k_value": 54.0,
              "k_rank": 231,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.25751,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.1459,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.91,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0114,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9297,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_LAA@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_MIN@SDawayBailey OberBailey OberTrue5.15.0-121-16/42/36/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.616129032258065,
      "WHIP": 1.2483870967741937,
      "IP": 103.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.439,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3691,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0314,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9337,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0596,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 139,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4684,
            "WHIP": 1.4051,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21519,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18987,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.49367,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7857,
            "WHIP": 1.4805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26623,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62338,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23377
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.1,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 103.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 71.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 435.0,
            "Pitches": 1630.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7895,
            "R": 2.9474,
            "H": 5.4211,
            "BB": 1.3684,
            "SO": 3.7368,
            "HR": 0.8947,
            "BF": 22.8947,
            "Pitches": 85.7895
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6161,
            "WHIP": 1.2484,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5129,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99677,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25161,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16452
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.042,
        "predicted_H": 5.998,
        "predicted_BB": 1.275,
        "predicted_SO": 3.432,
        "predicted_HR": 0.921,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.2231,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3878
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.042,
          "final": 2.5856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.998,
          "final": 5.9989,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.275,
          "final": 1.5926,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.432,
          "final": 4.5568,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.921,
          "final": 0.9556,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.2231,
          "final": 5.2231,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3878,
          "final": 1.3878,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 65,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 5.7857142857142865,
        "WHIP": 1.4805194805194806,
        "K9": 5.6103896103896105,
        "HR9": 2.103896103896104,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.159115722360541,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641927",
      "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 646.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9692,
        "offense_index": 1.0317,
        "defense_index": 0.8987,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0926
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 556.0,
        "runs_allowed": 547.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2769,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2077,
        "offense_index": 0.9577,
        "defense_index": 1.0614,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1112
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2038,
        "offense_edge": 0.0317,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0423,
        "defense_strength": -0.1013,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0614,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9905,
        "run_prevention": 1.0136,
        "strikeout": 0.9973
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641927",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641927",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 414.0,
            "k_percent": 16.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6039,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9099,
            "whiff_percent": 19.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3345,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5143,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641927",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 83.5963763862264,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.5821400593873,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 83.5963763862264,
                "release_spin_rate": 2149.5821400593873,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 83.5964,
              "release_spin_rate": 2149.5821,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3691,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0314,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9337,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0596,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641927",
            "espn_id": 3107919,
            "player_name": "Bailey Ober",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 139,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 139,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 372,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 95,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 4.6161,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 70,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 103.1,
              "ip_rank": 100,
              "h_value": 103.0,
              "h_rank": 87,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 179,
              "k_value": 71.0,
              "k_rank": 156,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.183871,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42,
              "whip_value": 1.2483,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0314,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0596,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9337,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_MIN@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_MIN@SDhomeWalker BuehlerWalker BuehlerTrue5.06.0331-26/41/04/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.786703601108034,
      "WHIP": 1.3878116343490305,
      "IP": 120.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.813,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.192,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0163,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 1.0306,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 242,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1558,
            "WHIP": 1.2468,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8961,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 210.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.042,
            "WHIP": 1.4895,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67133,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94406,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18881
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 120.1,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 518.0,
            "Pitches": 2061.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.56,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.72,
            "BB": 1.96,
            "SO": 4.16,
            "HR": 0.56,
            "BF": 20.72,
            "Pitches": 82.44
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7867,
            "WHIP": 1.3878,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53186,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98061,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4072,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86427,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.422,
        "predicted_H": 4.542,
        "predicted_BB": 2.034,
        "predicted_SO": 4.037,
        "predicted_HR": 0.622,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4963,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3568
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.422,
          "final": 2.665,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.542,
          "final": 5.155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.034,
          "final": 1.5993,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.037,
          "final": 3.601,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.622,
          "final": 0.3605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4963,
          "final": 4.4963,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3568,
          "final": 1.3568,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 6.0419580419580425,
        "WHIP": 1.4895104895104896,
        "K9": 7.363636363636364,
        "HR9": 1.6993006993006994,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1881679201627389,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.5385,
        "runs_scored": 556.0,
        "runs_allowed": 547.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2769,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2077,
        "offense_index": 0.9577,
        "defense_index": 1.0614,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1112
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 599.0,
        "runs_allowed": 646.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3615,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6077,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9692,
        "offense_index": 1.0317,
        "defense_index": 0.8987,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0926
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2038,
        "offense_edge": -0.0423,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0317,
        "defense_strength": 0.0614,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1013,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0087,
        "run_prevention": 0.9887,
        "strikeout": 1.0036
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 494.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9184,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0819,
            "whiff_percent": 20.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1884,
            "command_and_miss": -0.405,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0151
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.65623446258957,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.5600592952596,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.65623446258957,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.5600592952596,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6562,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.5601,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0151,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1077,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.192,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0163,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 1.0306,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_id": 39251,
            "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 242,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 242,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 99,
              "era_value": 4.7867,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 70,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 94,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 120.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 57,
              "er_value": 64.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 84,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 21,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 77,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.7783937,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3878,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.53,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0163,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0163,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0306,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_MIN@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_NYM@CHWawayNolan McLeanNolan McLeanTrue5.26.0130-35/14/48/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.343457943925234,
      "WHIP": 1.1565420560747663,
      "IP": 142.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.707,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.867,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2364,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9799,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 0.9739,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.3977,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44318,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17045
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.882,
            "WHIP": 1.2472,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32022,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11798
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 64.0,
            "H": 111.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 162.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 594.0,
            "Pitches": 2359.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.12,
            "R": 2.56,
            "H": 4.44,
            "BB": 2.16,
            "SO": 6.48,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.76,
            "Pitches": 94.36
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3435,
            "WHIP": 1.1565,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3715,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77804,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3785,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13551,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10514
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.235,
        "predicted_H": 5.333,
        "predicted_BB": 2.347,
        "predicted_SO": 5.959,
        "predicted_HR": 0.828,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4163,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3041
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.235,
          "final": 2.5566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.333,
          "final": 5.193,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.347,
          "final": 3.042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.959,
          "final": 6.8171,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.828,
          "final": 0.9003,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4163,
          "final": 3.4163,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3041,
          "final": 1.3041,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.8820224719101124,
        "WHIP": 1.2471910112359552,
        "K9": 9.859550561797754,
        "HR9": 1.0617977528089888,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8266171815754833,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4538,
        "runs_scored": 545.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4923,
        "offense_index": 0.9365,
        "defense_index": 0.9965,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0411
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5194,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7752,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4496,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0061,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0976,
        "offense_edge": -0.0635,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "defense_strength": -0.0035,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0061,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9933,
        "run_prevention": 1.0159,
        "strikeout": 0.9917
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 563.0,
            "k_percent": 27.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.208,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.661,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3152,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2879,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": -0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0636
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.06194841259298,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.02888222752,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.06194841259298,
                "release_spin_rate": 2497.02888222752,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0619,
              "release_spin_rate": 2497.0289,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0636,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4546,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2364,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9799,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 1.002,
          "homer_factor": 0.9739,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_id": 4433874,
            "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 72,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 72,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 11,
              "era_value": 3.3434,
              "era_rank": 19.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 28,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 142.2,
              "ip_rank": 25,
              "h_value": 111.0,
              "h_rank": 77,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 14,
              "k_value": 162.0,
              "k_rank": 10,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.219626,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10,
              "whip_value": 1.1565,
              "whip_rank": 25.0,
              "war_value": 1.98,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9799,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9799,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9739,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_NYM@CHWhomeSean NewcombSean NewcombTrue6.02.0-120002/21/06/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.442857142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.0714285714285714,
      "IP": 70.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 46,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.111,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.111,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.085,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9928,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 0.9603,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.265,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 70.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.443,
      "season_WHIP": 1.071,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.026,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7372,
        "prior_weight": 0.2628
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 46,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 131.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.8,
            "Pitches": 26.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 56.0,
            "Pitches": 226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 5.6,
            "Pitches": 22.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.1429,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 46,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 70.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 281.0,
            "Pitches": 1089.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.413,
            "R": 0.4783,
            "H": 1.0435,
            "BB": 0.587,
            "SO": 1.3913,
            "HR": 0.0435,
            "BF": 6.1087,
            "Pitches": 23.6739
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4429,
            "WHIP": 1.0714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.02857
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.668,
        "predicted_H": 1.535,
        "predicted_BB": 1.332,
        "predicted_SO": 2.172,
        "predicted_HR": 0.167,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2107,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0541
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.461,
      "form_weight": 0.539,
      "form_reliability": 0.7372,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.026,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7372,
        "prior_weight": 0.2628
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.668,
          "final": 0.36,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.535,
          "final": 1.7494,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.332,
          "final": 1.1789,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.172,
          "final": 3.9368,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.167,
          "final": 0.09,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2107,
          "final": 2.2107,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0541,
          "final": 1.0541,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 14.0,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.5714285714285716,
        "WHIP": 1.1428571428571428,
        "K9": 5.785714285714286,
        "HR9": 0.6428571428571429,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9037239488501754,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.026,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7372,
          "prior_weight": 0.2628
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5194,
        "runs_scored": 616.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7752,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4496,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0061,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.4538,
        "runs_scored": 545.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4923,
        "offense_index": 0.9365,
        "defense_index": 0.9965,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0411
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0976,
        "offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0635,
        "defense_strength": 0.0061,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0035,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9844,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656794",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656794",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 264.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.265,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.252,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6903,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 44.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3738,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0443,
            "regression_edge": -1.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0176
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656794",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 21,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 21,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.61075057207849,
              "release_spin_rate": 2444.981106388793,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 21,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.61075057207849,
                "release_spin_rate": 2444.981106388793,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6108,
              "release_spin_rate": 2444.9811,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0176,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1259,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.085,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9928,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9971,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 0.9603,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.039,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656794",
            "espn_id": 33856,
            "player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 60,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 60,
              "gp_value": 47.0,
              "gp_rank": 91,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 241,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 2.4428,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 216,
              "sv_value": 4.0,
              "sv_rank": 48,
              "hld_value": 10.0,
              "hld_rank": 74,
              "ip_value": 70.0,
              "ip_rank": 162,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 208,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 301,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 480,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 168,
              "k_value": 64.0,
              "k_rank": 174,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.228572,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.1,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9603,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9971,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_OAK@HOUawayBrady BassoBrady BassoTrue4.21.0-111322/43/06/0
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9130434782608696,
      "WHIP": 1.3478260869565217,
      "IP": 23.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.333,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0274,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9977,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9812,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9975,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 19.0,
      "bb_percent": 3.0,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 253,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.609,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4796,
        "prior_weight": 0.5204
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 115.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 6.0,
            "Pitches": 23.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.125,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 226.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 6.3,
            "Pitches": 22.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2979,
            "WHIP": 1.0213,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25532,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95745,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06383,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06383
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.625,
            "R": 0.625,
            "H": 1.75,
            "BB": 0.1875,
            "SO": 1.1875,
            "HR": 0.125,
            "BF": 6.25,
            "Pitches": 22.3125
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.913,
            "WHIP": 1.3478,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43478,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21739,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08696
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.191,
        "predicted_H": 3.024,
        "predicted_BB": 0.685,
        "predicted_SO": 2.672,
        "predicted_HR": 0.393,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3544,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1604
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5699,
      "form_weight": 0.4301,
      "form_reliability": 0.4796,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.609,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4796,
        "prior_weight": 0.5204
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.191,
          "final": 1.0822,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.024,
          "final": 2.4405,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.685,
          "final": 2.0042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.672,
          "final": 4.5685,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.393,
          "final": 0.7389,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3544,
          "final": 3.3544,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1604,
          "final": 1.1604,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.2,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 15,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 2.297872340425532,
        "WHIP": 1.021276595744681,
        "K9": 6.893617021276596,
        "HR9": 0.574468085106383,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8749911567534319,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.609,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4796,
          "prior_weight": 0.5204
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "player_name": "Brady Basso",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 561.0,
        "runs_allowed": 749.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7615,
        "offense_index": 0.9649,
        "defense_index": 0.7762,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3459
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 590.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5385,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8692,
        "offense_index": 1.0148,
        "defense_index": 0.9185,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0757
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2702,
        "offense_edge": -0.0351,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0148,
        "defense_strength": -0.2238,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0815,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9819,
        "run_prevention": 1.0383,
        "strikeout": 0.9907
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669620",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669620",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 91.0,
            "k_percent": 19.0,
            "bb_percent": 3.0,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 41.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8337,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1125,
            "whiff_percent": 21.2,
            "swing_percent": 52.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0434,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1107,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 1.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1455
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669620",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.32797199006954,
              "release_spin_rate": 2215.988659010366,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 18,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.32797199006954,
                "release_spin_rate": 2215.988659010366,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.328,
              "release_spin_rate": 2215.9887,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1455,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.039,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0274,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9977,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9812,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9975,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_id": 4179551,
            "player_name": "Brady Basso",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 253,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 253,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 414,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 263,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 3.913,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 500,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 550,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 219,
              "ip_value": 23.0,
              "ip_rank": 458,
              "h_value": 28.0,
              "h_rank": 399,
              "er_value": 10.0,
              "er_rank": 489,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 480,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 644,
              "k_value": 19.0,
              "k_rank": 472,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4347825,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.3478,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9757,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9915,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_OAK@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_OAK@HOUhomeCristian JavierCristian JavierTrue4.04.003304/43/24/8
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.440366972477063,
      "WHIP": 1.6788990825688073,
      "IP": 36.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.905,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3447,
      "sample_weight": 0.596,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9871,
      "walk_factor": 1.0143,
      "homer_factor": 1.0397,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.38,
      "xwoba": 0.357,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 724,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 88.0,
            "Pitches": 348.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 17.6,
            "Pitches": 69.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.2381,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09524,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19048
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 146.0,
            "Pitches": 579.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.9,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 14.6,
            "Pitches": 57.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6842,
            "WHIP": 1.6737,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63158,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26316,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41053,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 167.0,
            "Pitches": 653.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.3636,
            "R": 2.3636,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.5455,
            "SO": 2.7273,
            "HR": 0.6364,
            "BF": 15.1818,
            "Pitches": 59.3636
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4404,
            "WHIP": 1.6789,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7156,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21101,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82569,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19266
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.079,
        "predicted_H": 4.345,
        "predicted_BB": 1.183,
        "predicted_SO": 3.448,
        "predicted_HR": 0.653,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8581,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4356
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.482,
      "form_weight": 0.518,
      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 2.0409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.345,
          "final": 3.2146,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.183,
          "final": 2.0589,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.448,
          "final": 3.7141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.653,
          "final": 0.3382,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8581,
          "final": 4.8581,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4356,
          "final": 1.4356,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 31.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 29,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.684210526315789,
        "WHIP": 1.6736842105263157,
        "K9": 8.242105263157894,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.152525667678381,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 11.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6875,
          "prior_weight": 0.3125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 590.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5385,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8692,
        "offense_index": 1.0148,
        "defense_index": 0.9185,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0757
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 50,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 561.0,
        "runs_allowed": 749.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4462,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7615,
        "offense_index": 0.9649,
        "defense_index": 0.7762,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3459
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2702,
        "offense_edge": 0.0148,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0351,
        "defense_strength": -0.0815,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2238,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0098,
        "run_prevention": 0.989,
        "strikeout": 1.0109
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 149.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.38,
            "xwoba": 0.357,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.3181,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4288,
            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.9953,
            "command_and_miss": -0.31,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0767
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 64,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 64,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.5556274024713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.2985199695922,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 64,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.5556274024713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2332.2985199695922,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.2985,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0767,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.548,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3447,
          "sample_weight": 0.596,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9871,
          "walk_factor": 1.0143,
          "homer_factor": 1.0397,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664299",
            "espn_id": 41261,
            "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 724,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 724,
              "gp_value": 11.0,
              "gp_rank": 481,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 189,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 173,
              "era_value": 6.4403,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 36.1,
              "ip_rank": 367,
              "h_value": 44.0,
              "h_rank": 252,
              "er_value": 26.0,
              "er_rank": 204,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 208,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 311,
              "k_value": 30.0,
              "k_rank": 394,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.431193,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.6788,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9923,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_OAK@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_PIT@LADawayLake BacharLake BacharTrue5.02.0-91103/14/33/1
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1004784688995213,
      "WHIP": 1.0191387559808611,
      "IP": 69.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 42,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2439,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9793,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0457,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.0103,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 200,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 69.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.1,
      "season_WHIP": 1.019,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.959,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7363,
        "prior_weight": 0.2637
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 42,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 45.0,
            "Pitches": 200.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 9.0,
            "Pitches": 40.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 307.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.9,
            "R": 0.9,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 7.7,
            "Pitches": 30.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3393,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 42,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 69.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 281.0,
            "Pitches": 1135.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5714,
            "R": 0.619,
            "H": 1.0952,
            "BB": 0.5952,
            "SO": 1.7381,
            "HR": 0.2619,
            "BF": 6.6905,
            "Pitches": 27.0238
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1005,
            "WHIP": 1.0191,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3445,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66029,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35885,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04785,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.296,
        "predicted_H": 2.296,
        "predicted_BB": 1.293,
        "predicted_SO": 2.988,
        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8503,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1852
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4614,
      "form_weight": 0.5386,
      "form_reliability": 0.7363,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.959,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7363,
        "prior_weight": 0.2637
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.296,
          "final": 1.1594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.296,
          "final": 2.6208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.293,
          "final": 2.542,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.988,
          "final": 2.5321,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.713,
          "final": 0.8454,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8503,
          "final": 3.8503,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1852,
          "final": 1.1852,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.2,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.339285714285714,
        "WHIP": 1.125,
        "K9": 7.7142857142857135,
        "HR9": 2.892857142857143,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-21T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9923955917154482,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.959,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7363,
          "prior_weight": 0.2637
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669199",
      "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4809,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2214,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7634,
        "offense_index": 1.1161,
        "defense_index": 0.9376,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.011
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6077,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8615,
        "offense_index": 1.1178,
        "defense_index": 1.1565,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3008
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2898,
        "offense_edge": 0.1161,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1178,
        "defense_strength": -0.0624,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1565,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9818,
        "run_prevention": 1.0396,
        "strikeout": 0.9819
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669199",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669199",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 281.0,
            "k_percent": 25.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9758,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.841,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2646,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4257,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6857,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0087
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 40,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 40,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 40,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77040919616555,
                "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164138592872,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7704,
              "release_spin_rate": 2691.0164,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0087,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.062,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2439,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9793,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0457,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.0103,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_id": 42592,
            "player_name": "Lake Bachar",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 200,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 200,
              "gp_value": 43.0,
              "gp_rank": 120,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 206,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 3.7464,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 296,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 84,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 250,
              "ip_value": 69.2,
              "ip_rank": 164,
              "h_value": 50.0,
              "h_rank": 208,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 178,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 118,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 168,
              "k_value": 73.0,
              "k_rank": 147,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.430622,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.1052,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.76,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0457,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_PIT@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_PIT@LADhomeBlake SnellBlake SnellTrue5.06.030003/21/35/6
Last 10 before this game (3 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6,
      "WHIP": 1.1333333333333333,
      "IP": 15.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6148,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9477,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0535,
      "walk_factor": 1.0045,
      "homer_factor": 0.8666,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.228,
      "xwoba": 0.229,
      "barrel_percent": 0.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 10.8,
      "whiff_percent": 36.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 348,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 251.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.6667,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 83.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 251.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.6667,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 83.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 63.0,
            "Pitches": 251.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.6667,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 83.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.318,
        "predicted_H": 4.418,
        "predicted_BB": 1.897,
        "predicted_SO": 5.463,
        "predicted_HR": 0.463,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.173,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.263
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.318,
          "final": 0.8946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.418,
          "final": 3.5473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.897,
          "final": 1.3462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.463,
          "final": 5.1787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.463,
          "final": 0.1787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.173,
          "final": 4.173,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.263,
          "final": 1.263,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.0,
        "ER": 6,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 3.6,
        "WHIP": 1.1333333333333333,
        "K9": 12.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9533186050637664,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 51,
        "win_pct": 0.6077,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 502.0,
        "run_differential": 147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9923,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8615,
        "offense_index": 1.1178,
        "defense_index": 1.1565,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3008
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4809,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": 29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2214,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9847,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7634,
        "offense_index": 1.1161,
        "defense_index": 0.9376,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.011
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2898,
        "offense_edge": 0.1178,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1161,
        "defense_strength": 0.1565,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0624,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0116,
        "run_prevention": 0.9884,
        "strikeout": 0.9994
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 40.0,
            "k_percent": 31.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.228,
            "xwoba": 0.229,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 10.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 73.3522,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 90.3682,
            "whiff_percent": 36.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.9109,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1507,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 1.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.6143,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0015
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.89886363636364,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.121753246753,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.89886363636364,
                "release_spin_rate": 2378.121753246753,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.1218,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0015,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0107,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6148,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9477,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0535,
          "walk_factor": 1.0045,
          "homer_factor": 0.8666,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_id": 33748,
            "player_name": "Blake Snell",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 348,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 348,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 666,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 241,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 151,
              "era_value": 3.6,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 384,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 397,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 15.0,
              "ip_rank": 537,
              "h_value": 11.0,
              "h_rank": 590,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 595,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 708,
              "bb_value": 6.0,
              "bb_rank": 548,
              "k_value": 20.0,
              "k_rank": 461,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.1333,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.16,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0241,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_PIT@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_SF@BOSawayMatt WilkinsonMatt WilkinsonTrue2.13.243412/73/01/2
Last 10 before this game (1 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.0,
      "WHIP": 0.5,
      "IP": 2.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 1,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0256,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0028,
      "walk_factor": 0.9991,
      "homer_factor": 0.9988,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.0,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 392,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.401,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0743,
        "prior_weight": 0.9257
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 1,
      "reference_playing_time": 0.1,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 1,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 25.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 0.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.213,
        "predicted_H": 0.43,
        "predicted_BB": 0.155,
        "predicted_SO": 0.402,
        "predicted_HR": 0.063,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1846,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2788
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7411,
      "form_weight": 0.2589,
      "form_reliability": 0.0743,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.401,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0743,
        "prior_weight": 0.9257
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 0.1,
          "form": 0.1,
          "final": 0.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.213,
          "final": 2.2785,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.43,
          "final": 1.5935,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.155,
          "final": 2.2635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.402,
          "final": 0.8452,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.063,
          "final": 0.7574,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1846,
          "final": 4.1846,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2788,
          "final": 1.2788,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 2.0,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 1,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 0.5,
        "K9": 0.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 1,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 1,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 1,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9662736753103629,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.401,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0743,
          "prior_weight": 0.9257
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 2.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 2.1,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 20.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 2.1,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 20.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 2.1,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 20.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 2.1,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 20.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4062,
        "runs_scored": 517.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6484,
        "offense_index": 0.9001,
        "defense_index": 0.9654,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2244
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5391,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 484.0,
        "run_differential": 97.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7578,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7812,
        "offense_index": 1.0115,
        "defense_index": 1.1868,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1261
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0999,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0115,
        "defense_strength": -0.0346,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1868,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9845,
        "run_prevention": 1.0228,
        "strikeout": 0.9886
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 0.0,
            "k_percent": 22.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0748,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0686,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "683363",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0256,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9978,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0028,
          "walk_factor": 0.9991,
          "homer_factor": 0.9988,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_id": 5339226,
            "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 392,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 392,
              "gp_value": 1.0,
              "gp_rank": 752,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 288,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 0.0,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 498,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 550,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 2.0,
              "ip_rank": 756,
              "h_value": 1.0,
              "h_rank": 783,
              "er_value": 0.0,
              "er_rank": 782,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 705,
              "bb_value": 0.0,
              "bb_rank": 780,
              "k_value": 0.0,
              "k_rank": 771,
              "k_per_9_value": 0.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 0.5,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.1,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9995,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0013,
            "adjusted": 0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 2.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 12,
      "Pitches": 47,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 1 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_SF@BOShomeJake BennettJake BennettTrue5.27.042312/70/15/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.458677685950413,
      "WHIP": 1.0661157024793388,
      "IP": 80.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.762,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3457,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9706,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 0.9483,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.278,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 127,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.4444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14815,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85185,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08333
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 80.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 69.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 323.0,
            "Pitches": 1149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2143,
            "R": 2.2143,
            "H": 4.9286,
            "BB": 1.2143,
            "SO": 4.3571,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 23.0714,
            "Pitches": 82.0714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4587,
            "WHIP": 1.0661,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3843,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85537,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21074,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7562,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07438
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.728,
        "predicted_H": 5.471,
        "predicted_BB": 1.564,
        "predicted_SO": 4.798,
        "predicted_HR": 0.611,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3519,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2469
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.728,
          "final": 2.3922,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.471,
          "final": 3.8702,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.564,
          "final": 0.8427,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.798,
          "final": 4.8912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.611,
          "final": 1.2516,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3519,
          "final": 4.3519,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2469,
          "final": 1.2469,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.9999999999999996,
        "WHIP": 0.9999999999999999,
        "K9": 7.199999999999999,
        "HR9": 0.7499999999999999,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8332882410632757,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5391,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 484.0,
        "run_differential": 97.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7578,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7812,
        "offense_index": 1.0115,
        "defense_index": 1.1868,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1261
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 128,
        "wins": 52,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4062,
        "runs_scored": 517.0,
        "runs_allowed": 595.0,
        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6484,
        "offense_index": 0.9001,
        "defense_index": 0.9654,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2244
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3505,
        "offense_edge": 0.0115,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0999,
        "defense_strength": 0.1868,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0346,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0236,
        "run_prevention": 0.9478,
        "strikeout": 1.0185
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687562",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687562",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 300.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.278,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1306,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9952,
            "whiff_percent": 24.0,
            "swing_percent": 52.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5495,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7222,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0921,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0777
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687562",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.53302474501449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.055518417999,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.53302474501449,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.055518417999,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.533,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.0555,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0777,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5548,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3457,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9706,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 0.9483,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687562",
            "espn_id": 4654024,
            "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 127,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 127,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 446,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 132,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 3.4586,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 94,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 324,
              "ip_value": 80.2,
              "ip_rank": 139,
              "h_value": 69.0,
              "h_rank": 152,
              "er_value": 31.0,
              "er_rank": 169,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 245,
              "bb_value": 17.0,
              "bb_rank": 308,
              "k_value": 61.0,
              "k_rank": 185,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.805785,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.0661,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9483,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_STL@PHIawayKyle LeahyKyle LeahyTrue5.24.0-520-23/21/26/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.237057220708447,
      "WHIP": 1.3079019073569482,
      "IP": 122.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.097,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4681,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0398,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.1411,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.321,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 48.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 122.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.237,
      "season_WHIP": 1.308,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 453.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.07407,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18519,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 841.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 84.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.3758,
            "WHIP": 0.9554,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15287,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17197,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99363,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 122.1,
            "ER": 44.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 125.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 516.0,
            "Pitches": 2023.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8333,
            "R": 1.8333,
            "H": 5.2083,
            "BB": 1.4583,
            "SO": 4.625,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 84.2917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2371,
            "WHIP": 1.3079,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35967,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0218,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2861,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90736,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09809
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.457,
        "predicted_H": 5.143,
        "predicted_BB": 1.003,
        "predicted_SO": 5.564,
        "predicted_HR": 0.459,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4579,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.152
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.457,
          "final": 1.2638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.143,
          "final": 4.2369,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.003,
          "final": 1.0017,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.564,
          "final": 5.7484,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.459,
          "final": 0.2649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4579,
          "final": 2.4579,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.152,
          "final": 1.152,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.375796178343949,
        "WHIP": 0.9554140127388535,
        "K9": 8.942675159235668,
        "HR9": 0.5159235668789809,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.69115959162121,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681517",
      "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": 0.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4351,
        "offense_index": 0.9907,
        "defense_index": 1.0094,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0032
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5538,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 568.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1923,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3692,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.0246,
        "current_streak": "W8",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1744
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1712,
        "offense_edge": -0.0093,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
        "defense_strength": 0.0094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0246,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
        "run_prevention": 1.0107,
        "strikeout": 0.9933
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681517",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681517",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 496.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.321,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 48.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9224,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.5556,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7007,
            "command_and_miss": -0.075,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.5286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0242
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681517",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.49334158081874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.062264203981,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.49334158081874,
                "release_spin_rate": 2180.062264203981,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4933,
              "release_spin_rate": 2180.0623,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0242,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1729,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4681,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0398,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.1411,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "681517",
            "espn_id": 5006093,
            "player_name": "Kyle Leahy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 44,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 44,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 3.237,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 22,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 122.1,
              "ip_rank": 71,
              "h_value": 125.0,
              "h_rank": 39,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 111,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 118,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 95,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 64,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.166213,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.3079,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.46,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0398,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0398,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1411,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_STL@PHIhomeCristopher SánchezCristopher SánchezTrue6.06.223413/92/010/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5051546391752577,
      "WHIP": 1.218556701030928,
      "IP": 161.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.218,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4665,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9603,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0749,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 1.0021,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 32.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 1,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8621,
            "WHIP": 1.3448,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44828,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24138,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03448
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 946.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.4647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 161.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 187.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 673.0,
            "Pitches": 2479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.7308,
            "R": 1.9615,
            "H": 6.1154,
            "BB": 1.4615,
            "SO": 7.1923,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.8846,
            "Pitches": 95.3462
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5052,
            "WHIP": 1.2186,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27835,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98351,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23505,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1567,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08041
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.925,
        "predicted_H": 5.815,
        "predicted_BB": 2.106,
        "predicted_SO": 6.75,
        "predicted_HR": 0.475,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9705,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3582
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.925,
          "final": 1.9564,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.815,
          "final": 4.6379,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.106,
          "final": 2.0617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.75,
          "final": 7.2727,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.475,
          "final": 0.6945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9705,
          "final": 2.9705,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3582,
          "final": 1.3582,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 65,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
        "WHIP": 1.4647058823529413,
        "K9": 10.48235294117647,
        "HR9": 0.9529411764705883,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9366510546752851,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 10.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 10.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 10.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5538,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 568.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1923,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3692,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.0246,
        "current_streak": "W8",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1744
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": 0.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4351,
        "offense_index": 0.9907,
        "defense_index": 1.0094,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0032
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1712,
        "offense_edge": 0.019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0093,
        "defense_strength": 0.0246,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0094,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9875,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 644.0,
            "k_percent": 27.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1045,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4313,
            "whiff_percent": 32.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3632,
            "command_and_miss": 0.905,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0258
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.38657615494853,
              "release_spin_rate": 2081.4914934264916,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.38657615494853,
                "release_spin_rate": 2081.4914934264916,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3866,
              "release_spin_rate": 2081.4915,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0258,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1844,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4665,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9603,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0749,
          "walk_factor": 0.932,
          "homer_factor": 1.0021,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_id": 42359,
            "player_name": "Cristopher Sanchez",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 1,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 1,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 231,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 7,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 2,
              "era_value": 2.5051,
              "era_rank": 5.0,
              "w_value": 16.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 161.2,
              "ip_rank": 3,
              "h_value": 159.0,
              "h_rank": 3,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 105,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 101,
              "bb_value": 38.0,
              "bb_rank": 75,
              "k_value": 187.0,
              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.410309,
              "k_per_9_rank": 54,
              "whip_value": 1.2185,
              "whip_rank": 33.0,
              "war_value": 7.02,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9603,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9603,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0749,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 10,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_TB@BALawayNick MartinezNick MartinezTrue6.06.0020-21/12/06/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0494117647058827,
      "WHIP": 1.1364705882352941,
      "IP": 141.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.903,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2714,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
      "walk_factor": 0.896,
      "homer_factor": 0.9896,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.5,
      "bb_percent": 3.8,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 17.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 27,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 419.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7473,
            "WHIP": 1.1868,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12088,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06593,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1978
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 829.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 82.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6818,
            "WHIP": 1.108,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97159,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17045
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 574.0,
            "Pitches": 1983.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.7917,
            "BB": 0.9167,
            "SO": 3.4583,
            "HR": 0.7083,
            "BF": 23.9167,
            "Pitches": 82.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0494,
            "WHIP": 1.1365,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33882,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15529,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.745,
        "predicted_H": 6.175,
        "predicted_BB": 0.918,
        "predicted_SO": 4.087,
        "predicted_HR": 1.011,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1179,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1822
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.745,
          "final": 2.43,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.175,
          "final": 3.9868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.918,
          "final": 1.3755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.087,
          "final": 4.4731,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.011,
          "final": 0.5835,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1179,
          "final": 4.1179,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1822,
          "final": 1.1822,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.681818181818182,
        "WHIP": 1.1079545454545454,
        "K9": 5.0625,
        "HR9": 1.5340909090909092,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9131132872956058,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.5891,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 542.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5271,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2016,
        "offense_index": 1.0113,
        "defense_index": 1.0655,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0457
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 582.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4769,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7308,
        "offense_index": 1.0001,
        "defense_index": 0.9463,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0443
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.09,
        "offense_edge": 0.0113,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0001,
        "defense_strength": 0.0655,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0537,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0056,
        "run_prevention": 0.989,
        "strikeout": 1.0027
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 550.0,
            "k_percent": 14.5,
            "bb_percent": 3.8,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7918,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2591,
            "whiff_percent": 17.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0383,
            "command_and_miss": -0.635,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1429,
            "bb_edge": 1.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1686
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.91453344101728,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.4425206145447,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.91453344101728,
                "release_spin_rate": 2190.4425206145447,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9145,
              "release_spin_rate": 2190.4425,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1686,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2044,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2714,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
          "walk_factor": 0.896,
          "homer_factor": 0.9896,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_id": 33372,
            "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 27,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 27,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 36,
              "era_value": 3.0494,
              "era_rank": 12.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 11,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 157,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 141.2,
              "ip_rank": 27,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 14,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 94,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 223,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 118,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.272941,
              "k_per_9_rank": 118,
              "whip_value": 1.1364,
              "whip_rank": 21.0,
              "war_value": 3.02,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.896,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9896,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9103,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_TB@BALhomeShane BazShane BazTrue5.25.200332/51/33/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.016018306636155,
      "WHIP": 1.345537757437071,
      "IP": 145.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.827,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1211,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0103,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0247,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 111,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 932.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9706,
            "WHIP": 1.3235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05294
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.2,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 623.0,
            "Pitches": 2376.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.88,
            "BB": 1.96,
            "SO": 5.28,
            "HR": 0.44,
            "BF": 24.92,
            "Pitches": 95.04
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.016,
            "WHIP": 1.3455,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44622,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00915,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33638,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90618,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07551
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.535,
        "predicted_H": 5.748,
        "predicted_BB": 1.633,
        "predicted_SO": 5.434,
        "predicted_HR": 0.45,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0267,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3025
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.535,
          "final": 1.4692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.748,
          "final": 4.1722,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.633,
          "final": 1.3669,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.434,
          "final": 4.4107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.45,
          "final": 0.2608,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0267,
          "final": 4.0267,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3025,
          "final": 1.3025,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.9705882352941178,
        "WHIP": 1.3235294117647058,
        "K9": 8.894117647058824,
        "HR9": 0.47647058823529415,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9509892899694026,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669358",
      "player_name": "Shane Baz",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4846,
        "runs_scored": 582.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2538,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4769,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7308,
        "offense_index": 1.0001,
        "defense_index": 0.9463,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0443
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 53,
        "win_pct": 0.5891,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 542.0,
        "run_differential": 42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3256,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5271,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2016,
        "offense_index": 1.0113,
        "defense_index": 1.0655,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.9,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0457
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.09,
        "offense_edge": 0.0001,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0113,
        "defense_strength": -0.0537,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0655,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9943,
        "run_prevention": 1.0117,
        "strikeout": 0.9964
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 21.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.6951,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5687,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1737,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1493,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0445
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669358",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.7202168043362,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.834742983574,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.7202168043362,
                "release_spin_rate": 2407.834742983574,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7202,
              "release_spin_rate": 2407.8347,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0445,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3179,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1211,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0103,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0247,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_id": 39639,
            "player_name": "Shane Baz",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 111,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 111,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 36,
              "era_value": 4.016,
              "era_rank": 41.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 168,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 145.2,
              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 147.0,
              "h_rank": 8,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 22,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 134,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 21,
              "k_value": 132.0,
              "k_rank": 35,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.155607,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 1.3455,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": 1.43,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0103,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0247,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9783,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_TOR@NYYawayJosé SorianoJosé SorianoTrue5.25.0-23525/74/35/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.229665071770335,
      "WHIP": 1.263157894736842,
      "IP": 139.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.573,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0599,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0051,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
      "walk_factor": 1.034,
      "homer_factor": 1.0346,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.326,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 30.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 23,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2235,
            "WHIP": 1.1647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 890.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9554,
            "WHIP": 1.3185,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43949,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93631,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84076,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07643
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 136.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 578.0,
            "Pitches": 2317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.56,
            "BB": 2.48,
            "SO": 5.44,
            "HR": 0.52,
            "BF": 23.12,
            "Pitches": 92.68
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2297,
            "WHIP": 1.2632,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35885,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44498,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97608,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0933
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.029,
        "predicted_H": 4.953,
        "predicted_BB": 2.038,
        "predicted_SO": 4.7,
        "predicted_HR": 0.422,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2786,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2553
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.029,
          "final": 2.0168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.953,
          "final": 4.9728,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.038,
          "final": 2.8629,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.7,
          "final": 4.4057,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.422,
          "final": 0.665,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2786,
          "final": 3.2786,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2553,
          "final": 1.2553,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.9554140127388533,
        "WHIP": 1.3184713375796178,
        "K9": 7.56687898089172,
        "HR9": 0.6878980891719745,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9491557380773082,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4885,
        "runs_scored": 518.0,
        "runs_allowed": 568.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3817,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9542,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3359,
        "offense_index": 0.8842,
        "defense_index": 1.0315,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0217
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5659,
        "runs_scored": 571.0,
        "runs_allowed": 476.0,
        "run_differential": 95.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7364,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4264,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6899,
        "offense_index": 0.9897,
        "defense_index": 1.212,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1816
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2033,
        "offense_edge": -0.1158,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0103,
        "defense_strength": 0.0315,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.212,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9932,
        "run_prevention": 1.0054,
        "strikeout": 0.9947
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 547.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.326,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7736,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2318,
            "whiff_percent": 30.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0772,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2736,
            "regression_edge": -1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7857,
            "bb_edge": -0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1523
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.64553570464022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2060.0974446108107,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.64553570464022,
                "release_spin_rate": 2060.0974446108107,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6455,
              "release_spin_rate": 2060.0974,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1523,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.088,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0599,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0051,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0389,
          "walk_factor": 1.034,
          "homer_factor": 1.0346,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_id": 40973,
            "player_name": "Jose Soriano",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 23,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 23,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 256,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 20,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 59,
              "era_value": 3.2296,
              "era_rank": 16.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 22,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 94,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 139.1,
              "ip_rank": 31,
              "h_value": 114.0,
              "h_rank": 67,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 82,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 101,
              "bb_value": 62.0,
              "bb_rank": 7,
              "k_value": 136.0,
              "k_rank": 33,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.784689,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.2631,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 3.04,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0346,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0389,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_TOR@NYYhomeCarlos RodónCarlos RodónTrue5.24.0-531-24/23/26/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.218543046357616,
      "WHIP": 1.2317880794701985,
      "IP": 50.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.033,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.11,
      "sample_weight": 0.772,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9906,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0353,
      "walk_factor": 1.0664,
      "homer_factor": 0.9771,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.5,
      "bb_percent": 13.3,
      "woba": 0.279,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
      "whiff_percent": 29.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 179,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 50.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.219,
      "season_WHIP": 1.232,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5526,
            "WHIP": 1.2632,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47368,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14474,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2185,
            "WHIP": 1.2318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35762,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6755,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55629,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11258,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07947
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2185,
            "WHIP": 1.2318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35762,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6755,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55629,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11258,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07947
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.191,
        "predicted_H": 4.27,
        "predicted_BB": 2.414,
        "predicted_SO": 5.587,
        "predicted_HR": 0.611,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7765,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2799
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.191,
          "final": 2.5881,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.27,
          "final": 4.1375,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.414,
          "final": 2.7016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.587,
          "final": 4.8081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.611,
          "final": 0.8019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7765,
          "final": 3.7765,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2799,
          "final": 1.2799,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 56,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.2185430463576163,
        "WHIP": 1.2317880794701987,
        "K9": 10.013245033112584,
        "HR9": 0.7152317880794703,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8640906729066836,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "player_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 129,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5659,
        "runs_scored": 571.0,
        "runs_allowed": 476.0,
        "run_differential": 95.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7364,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4264,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6899,
        "offense_index": 0.9897,
        "defense_index": 1.212,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1816
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.4885,
        "runs_scored": 518.0,
        "runs_allowed": 568.0,
        "run_differential": -50.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3817,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9542,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3359,
        "offense_index": 0.8842,
        "defense_index": 1.0315,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0217
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2033,
        "offense_edge": -0.0103,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1158,
        "defense_strength": 0.212,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0315,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0191,
        "run_prevention": 0.9501,
        "strikeout": 1.0154
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 193.0,
            "k_percent": 26.5,
            "bb_percent": 13.3,
            "woba": 0.279,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.042,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8354,
            "whiff_percent": 29.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2461,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2464,
            "regression_edge": -0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -1.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0434
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.70099033871995,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.103198635129,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.70099033871995,
                "release_spin_rate": 2307.103198635129,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.701,
              "release_spin_rate": 2307.1032,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0434,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3102,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.11,
          "sample_weight": 0.772,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9906,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0353,
          "walk_factor": 1.0664,
          "homer_factor": 0.9771,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_id": 33696,
            "player_name": "Carlos Rodon",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 179,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 179,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 503,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 165,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 132,
              "era_value": 3.2185,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 168,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 296,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 50.1,
              "ip_rank": 261,
              "h_value": 34.0,
              "h_rank": 342,
              "er_value": 18.0,
              "er_rank": 319,
              "hr_value": 4.0,
              "hr_rank": 343,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 154,
              "k_value": 56.0,
              "k_rank": 217,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.013245,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 1.2317,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.88,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0513,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_WAS@MIAawayJackson KentJackson KentTrue3.24.233306/40/33/5
Last 10 before this game (2 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 9.391304347826086,
      "WHIP": 2.4782608695652173,
      "IP": 7.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3617,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0307,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9805,
      "walk_factor": 1.09,
      "homer_factor": 1.0339,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 19.5,
      "woba": 0.421,
      "xwoba": 0.377,
      "barrel_percent": 4.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 50.0,
      "whiff_percent": 17.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 673,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 162.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.3913,
            "WHIP": 2.4783,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "H_per_IP": 1.43478,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 162.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.3913,
            "WHIP": 2.4783,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "H_per_IP": 1.43478,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 162.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.3913,
            "WHIP": 2.4783,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "H_per_IP": 1.43478,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.626,
        "predicted_H": 4.422,
        "predicted_BB": 2.241,
        "predicted_SO": 4.05,
        "predicted_HR": 0.572,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9094,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6659
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.626,
          "final": 2.8698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.422,
          "final": 5.4505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.241,
          "final": 0.7803,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.05,
          "final": 3.3656,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.572,
          "final": 0.851,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9094,
          "final": 5.9094,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6659,
          "final": 1.6659,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 7.2,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 11,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 9.391304347826088,
        "WHIP": 2.4782608695652177,
        "K9": 10.56521739130435,
        "HR9": 1.173913043478261,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1473922745839005,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
          "prior_weight": 0.7143
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800600",
      "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.2,
              "after": 3.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4656,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1908,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.084,
        "offense_index": 1.1595,
        "defense_index": 0.8805,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1211
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5077,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 550.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2308,
        "offense_index": 0.9743,
        "defense_index": 1.0581,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0226
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1437,
        "offense_edge": 0.1595,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0257,
        "defense_strength": -0.1195,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0581,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9917,
        "run_prevention": 1.015,
        "strikeout": 0.9977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800600",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800600",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 19.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 19.5,
            "woba": 0.421,
            "xwoba": 0.377,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 50.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4105,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.8902,
            "whiff_percent": 17.9,
            "swing_percent": 41.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2368,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8829,
            "regression_edge": 1.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.7571,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0571,
            "bb_edge": -2.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0919
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800600",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.28461538461538,
              "release_spin_rate": 2096.4102564102564,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.28461538461538,
                "release_spin_rate": 2096.4102564102564,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2846,
              "release_spin_rate": 2096.4103,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0919,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6564,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3617,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0307,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9805,
          "walk_factor": 1.09,
          "homer_factor": 1.0339,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.044,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800600",
            "espn_id": 5007807,
            "player_name": "Jackson Kent",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 673,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 673,
              "gp_value": 2.0,
              "gp_rank": 718,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 263,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 9.3913,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 500,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 397,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 7.2,
              "ip_rank": 624,
              "h_value": 11.0,
              "h_rank": 590,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 547,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 582,
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": 497,
              "k_value": 9.0,
              "k_rank": 573,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.565217,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 2.4782,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.27,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0405,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0153,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026082320260823_WAS@MIAhomeJanson JunkJanson JunkTrue5.14.2-21102/21/06/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.370503597122302,
      "WHIP": 1.3597122302158273,
      "IP": 92.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.148,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2307,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0108,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.329,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
      "whiff_percent": 15.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 274,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "report_date": "20260823",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 370.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 74.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2817,
            "WHIP": 1.3944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14085,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 808.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33103,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68276,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16552
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 92.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 396.0,
            "Pitches": 1484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 5.5556,
            "BB": 1.4444,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 82.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3705,
            "WHIP": 1.3597,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48561,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07914,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28058,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71223,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1295
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.102,
        "predicted_H": 5.405,
        "predicted_BB": 1.455,
        "predicted_SO": 3.487,
        "predicted_HR": 0.54,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9487,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4318
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.102,
          "final": 1.6151,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.405,
          "final": 3.9005,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.455,
          "final": 1.254,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.487,
          "final": 4.5974,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.54,
          "final": 0.3014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9487,
          "final": 3.9487,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4318,
          "final": 1.4318,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.3999999999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.593103448275862,
        "K9": 6.144827586206897,
        "HR9": 1.489655172413793,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1185374644115933,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676083",
      "player_name": "Janson Junk",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 130,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5077,
        "runs_scored": 567.0,
        "runs_allowed": 550.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1308,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3615,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2308,
        "offense_index": 0.9743,
        "defense_index": 1.0581,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0226
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 131,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.4656,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1908,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.084,
        "offense_index": 1.1595,
        "defense_index": 0.8805,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1211
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1437,
        "offense_edge": -0.0257,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1595,
        "defense_strength": 0.0581,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1195,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0011,
        "run_prevention": 1.0125,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676083",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676083",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 350.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5111,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7059,
            "whiff_percent": 15.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 123.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.0,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5038,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1213,
            "command_and_miss": -0.7436,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": -1.4571,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0822
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676083",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.45699971989913,
              "release_spin_rate": 2208.3622949828805,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.45699971989913,
                "release_spin_rate": 2208.3622949828805,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2208.3623,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0822,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5874,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2307,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0196,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9103,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 1.0108,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676083",
            "espn_id": 4881980,
            "player_name": "Janson Junk",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 274,
            "espn_total_ranked": 825,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 274,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 384,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 102,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 132,
              "era_value": 4.3705,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 92,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 34,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 240,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 327,
              "ip_value": 92.2,
              "ip_rank": 117,
              "h_value": 100.0,
              "h_rank": 95,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 105,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 118,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 179,
              "k_value": 66.0,
              "k_rank": 167,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.410072,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.3597,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.38,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0196,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0196,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0108,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9103,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260823_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}