Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260821 · dates 20260821 · generated 2026-08-22T02:39:24.553766+00:00

6-1

Winner picks · 85.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

5/14

Starter ER within ±1

7/14

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260821	15	7	8	6	1	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 10
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 1published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 7metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.28.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	3	52.0%	66.7%	-14.7%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	1	58.4%	100.0%	-41.6%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	2	61.8%	100.0%	-38.2%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	1	66.0%	100.0%	-34.0%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	7	1.4242	2.8485	0.8008	85.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	7	1.3571	2.7143	0.7143	71.4%	-0.0671	-0.0865
enhanced_prediction	7	1.3571	2.7143	0.7143	100.0%	-0.0671	-0.0865
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	1.2143	2.4286	0.7143	100.0%	-0.2099	-0.0865
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	1.3571	2.4286	1.0	85.7%	-0.0671	0.1992
capped_target	7	1.3571	2.4286	1.0	85.7%	-0.0671	0.1992
simulation_result	7	1.3571	2.4286	1.5714	71.4%	-0.0671	0.7706
published_final	7	1.1429	2.0	1.1429	85.7%	-0.2813	0.3421
simulation_winner_disagreement	1	2.0	4.0	0.0	100.0%	0.5758	-0.8008

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
  "games": 1,
  "team_run_mae": 2.0,
  "total_run_mae": 4.0,
  "margin_mae": 0.0,
  "winner_hits": 1,
  "winner_accuracy": 1.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.5758,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.8008
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=1

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
fundamental_edge_target_review	2.0	1
enhanced_prediction	1.0	1
simulation_result	1.0	1
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	1
capped_target	0.0	1
variance_applied	-0.0502	1

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0502,
      "games": 1
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Total Toward Pick Run Delta	Games
enhanced_prediction	5.0	6
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	6
simulation_winner_disagreement	2.0	1
variance_applied	0.5556	6
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	6
capped_target	0.0	6
simulation_result	-3.0	6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.5556,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 6
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "games": 6
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=7

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	2	2	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.550, 0.600)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	3	3	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260821	15	0.5697	7.6	0.8571

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260821",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5697,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.6,
      "accuracy": 0.8571
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=7

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v7	model_winner_simulation_score_v1	7	6	1	0.8571
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v9	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 7,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8571
    },
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260821_ATL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreATL 1 - 3 MIL

Final confidence58.4%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=204

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4824

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.109121561050415-3.4327869415283203	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	1-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	1-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	1-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	1-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.5844,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "pick_probability": 0.5844,
    "home_win_probability": 0.5844,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4156
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.1688,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 3-1",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 1 - 3 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5844,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5844,
    "published_confidence": 0.5844,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4664,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4824
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.049923862946676854
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04691606644277429
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.04531147356448735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04273718344239397
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.04258156278175193
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08527021696750632,
      "1": 0.14020442075300965,
      "2": 0.18545441296925033,
      "3": 0.1973439249692088,
      "4": 0.16893571580507086,
      "5": 0.11634033662837148,
      "6": 0.06445406028412286,
      "7": 0.028726411070174703,
      "8": 0.010299676538035816,
      "9": 0.0029708240152492467
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.14841526584962836,
      "1": 0.22960663000676212,
      "2": 0.252978970365905,
      "3": 0.19850825110117773,
      "4": 0.11093455661176495,
      "5": 0.044151888762863835,
      "6": 0.012514856324866678,
      "7": 0.0025263679059208347,
      "8": 0.0003632130711103415
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 1 - 3 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 1 - 3 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0744,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3953,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4824,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5844,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6632,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5844,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4824,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.512,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0744,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.109121561050415,
      "home_runs": 3.4327869415283203,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_CHC@SEA

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 5 - 3 SEA

Final confidence-34.7%

Calibrationraw 78.6% → blended 67.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 46.5% · n=93

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0664

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.073807229255112-4.2234477882522725	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.346628,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.673314,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.326686,
    "away_win_probability": 0.673314
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.346628,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.673314,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.786234,
    "sample_size": 93,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5484,
    "empirical_weight": 0.465,
    "blended_confidence": 0.675641,
    "published_confidence": 0.673314,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3047,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.624,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0664
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0295267146045401
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029245765847242033
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02822113738695289
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027952611288313275
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.027272784514265503
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09674517187376297,
      "1": 0.15740798068490092,
      "2": 0.2017444216287192,
      "3": 0.20368247463934847,
      "4": 0.16198810724941312,
      "5": 0.10148221538049025,
      "6": 0.05008112639727956,
      "7": 0.01946863833519677,
      "8": 0.005961758875325145,
      "9": 0.001438104935563678
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.033250318609808656,
      "1": 0.05727188254711371,
      "2": 0.08708850750450495,
      "3": 0.1169106239363587,
      "4": 0.13855456851122222,
      "5": 0.1449644337679113,
      "6": 0.13389853281464797,
      "7": 0.10918523532535486,
      "8": 0.07860058024076728,
      "9": 0.049952971886655366,
      "10": 0.02802661525102848,
      "11": 0.013882053489439479,
      "12": 0.006070305058830156,
      "13": 0.002343371056356819
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 SEA",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1851,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.624,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0664,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6733,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6989,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6733,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0664,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.624,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1851,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.073807229255112,
      "home_runs": 4.2234477882522725,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_CIN@ARI

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickARI

Published scoreCIN 3 - 4 ARI

Final confidence12.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=204

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6384

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.014882668807774-5.700562912784779	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.119588,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559794,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.559794,
    "away_win_probability": 0.440206
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.119588,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.5597941,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5844,
    "published_confidence": 0.559794,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0273,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0273,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7969,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.344,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6384
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029238701671310437
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02780630068368829
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027367184028212067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026572619294258717
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026026468497436207
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04501213373230612,
      "1": 0.07671302056626135,
      "2": 0.11299779741716838,
      "3": 0.14385742586517206,
      "4": 0.15829092011953885,
      "5": 0.1505362642234009,
      "6": 0.12373360794965717,
      "7": 0.08790136742469142,
      "8": 0.053971563281830226,
      "9": 0.02864150111829209,
      "10": 0.01313675093770177,
      "11": 0.0052076473639794205
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07115787951935536,
      "1": 0.1185022305027235,
      "2": 0.1628619207690455,
      "3": 0.18471496437843574,
      "4": 0.17289168581207812,
      "5": 0.13354746169644835,
      "6": 0.08513079072113423,
      "7": 0.044784445059694075,
      "8": 0.01944272920071434,
      "9": 0.006965892340370806
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0833,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4607,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6384,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5598,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6455,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5598,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6384,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.344,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0833,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.75,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.014882668807774,
      "home_runs": 5.700562912784779,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_CLE@COL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 4 - 3 COL

Final confidence-17.6%

Calibrationraw 69.8% → blended 62.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6534

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.558429869444527-4.56567372277129	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.176112,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.588056,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.411944,
    "away_win_probability": 0.588056
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.176112,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 COL",
    "confidence": 0.58805575,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.698422,
    "sample_size": 263,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.624861,
    "published_confidence": 0.588056,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.917,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6534
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03300640732493203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03291092968031998
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030660790722547352
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030572098243801853
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030549766595427554
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09818510227046871,
      "1": 0.15953803521752583,
      "2": 0.20365853368208078,
      "3": 0.2042493658855459,
      "4": 0.16093057098584537,
      "5": 0.09961761008714035,
      "6": 0.04844549699533628,
      "7": 0.018509319146503545,
      "8": 0.005555807669271592,
      "9": 0.0013101580602820578
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0479120253502393,
      "1": 0.08144242105707336,
      "2": 0.11902866394148252,
      "3": 0.14957092504535147,
      "4": 0.16159857917712042,
      "5": 0.1501144965107435,
      "6": 0.1198953852360295,
      "7": 0.08233358736836024,
      "8": 0.04861231989867424,
      "9": 0.024678024630923237,
      "10": 0.010771326170409478,
      "11": 0.004042245613592766
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 COL",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.164,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6534,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5881,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6309,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5881,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6534,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.164,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0359,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.558429869444527,
      "home_runs": 4.56567372277129,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_DET@KC

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickDET

Published scoreDET 3 - 2 KC

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 55.1% → blended 52.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=276

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8404

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9646615982055664-2.6543591022491455	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-1	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.527368,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "pick_probability": 0.527368,
    "home_win_probability": 0.472632,
    "away_win_probability": 0.527368
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.054736,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 4-1",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 1
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 4 - 3 KC",
    "confidence": 0.527368,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.551136,
    "sample_size": 276,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527368,
    "published_confidence": 0.527368,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.5018,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.388,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8404
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034166124626547355
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032289466264008485
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031607016661187766
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030376994000556785
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029917004656026824
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07301470323501798,
      "1": 0.12139129122022099,
      "2": 0.1659975189205139,
      "3": 0.1867035269859808,
      "4": 0.17271907635562447,
      "5": 0.13142105550124952,
      "6": 0.08224820985714135,
      "7": 0.042337461719412245,
      "8": 0.017925036102810783,
      "9": 0.006242120102027732
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0696262435928102,
      "1": 0.11611157311161178,
      "2": 0.16023802623864322,
      "3": 0.18299667487863164,
      "4": 0.17294513277423534,
      "5": 0.13525739648129845,
      "6": 0.08753893063324653,
      "7": 0.04688446712770766,
      "8": 0.02077993886722545,
      "9": 0.007621616294589684
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "DET 4 - 1 KC",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1565,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.318,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8404,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.5274,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5611,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5274,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8404,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.388,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1565,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9646615982055664,
      "home_runs": 2.6543591022491455,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_LAA@TEX

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickLAA

Published scoreLAA 6 - 3 TEX

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 54.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.6% · weight 50.0% · n=397

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0393

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.076442241668701-2.888388156890869	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.545,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "pick_probability": 0.545,
    "home_win_probability": 0.455,
    "away_win_probability": 0.545
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.09,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.545,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 397,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5264,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.545,
    "published_confidence": 0.545,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4331,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.692,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0393
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.036432931949443526
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03520185693863791
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03477564239115435
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.033600567478383934
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03167624768676463
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09135350277905899,
      "1": 0.14937500593350456,
      "2": 0.1943204805063673,
      "3": 0.20111623244798021,
      "4": 0.16560123927900147,
      "5": 0.10848456431628453,
      "6": 0.05654057549818654,
      "7": 0.02344446944371051,
      "8": 0.007734077187533441,
      "9": 0.0020298526083724205
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06804994198413127,
      "1": 0.11364409101981512,
      "2": 0.1575021931407643,
      "3": 0.18115361204803346,
      "4": 0.17291315558106057,
      "5": 0.1369713453073425,
      "6": 0.0900434346130949,
      "7": 0.04912414782377358,
      "8": 0.022241222407899566,
      "9": 0.008356856074084713
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 6 - 3 TEX",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.832,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0393,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6177,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0393,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.692,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.042,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.076442241668701,
      "home_runs": 2.888388156890869,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_MIN@SD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickSD

Published scoreMIN 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence8.4%

Calibrationraw 51.8% → blended 51.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 52.0% · weight 50.0% · n=317

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4421

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.311342446926587-4.220826237031307	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.084484,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.542242,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.542242,
    "away_win_probability": 0.457758
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.084484,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.54224245,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.517855,
    "sample_size": 317,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5205,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.519178,
    "published_confidence": 0.542242,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4023,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.516,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4421
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032226601943234824
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031490025402616875
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030420742399806026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029725440883395828
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028242366398504293
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06411537857269486,
      "1": 0.10743238902431465,
      "2": 0.15039615980932516,
      "3": 0.17590036966809422,
      "4": 0.17187996174510678,
      "5": 0.140317628392346,
      "6": 0.09570347655895987,
      "7": 0.05453454377413687,
      "8": 0.02596235866634018,
      "9": 0.010326308550597118,
      "10": 0.003431425238084207
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06981247791846634,
      "1": 0.11640262145302731,
      "2": 0.16055888030135873,
      "3": 0.18320940430110003,
      "4": 0.1729430271079408,
      "5": 0.13505174873809694,
      "6": 0.08724473538338265,
      "7": 0.04662513576034906,
      "8": 0.020613078204577376,
      "9": 0.007538890831700863
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.157,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.516,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 15,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4421,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5422,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6165,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5422,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4421,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.516,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.157,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
      }
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.311342446926587,
      "home_runs": 4.220826237031307,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_NYM@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreNYM 4 - 5 CHW

Final confidence62.7%

Calibrationraw 70.2% → blended 62.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4329

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.886263608932495-4.905885219573975	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.626678,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "pick_probability": 0.626678,
    "home_win_probability": 0.626678,
    "away_win_probability": 0.373322
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.253356,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 6-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.626678,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.702057,
    "sample_size": 263,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.626678,
    "published_confidence": 0.626678,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7823,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4329
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03099557716802388
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029887067894373977
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029363953885662132
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02831379711597744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027868304461690047
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0433170067830409,
      "1": 0.07393744120906294,
      "2": 0.10941195933452783,
      "3": 0.1403652409001372,
      "4": 0.15611648214943535,
      "5": 0.15053321563066313,
      "6": 0.12583756982153213,
      "7": 0.09119745260155172,
      "8": 0.057299323366667314,
      "9": 0.031211215393574028,
      "10": 0.01473894062562756,
      "11": 0.0060341521841800645
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08704164477085351,
      "1": 0.14288648390905506,
      "2": 0.18809003047836315,
      "3": 0.19854135028711947,
      "4": 0.1680531791199155,
      "5": 0.11406517232925749,
      "6": 0.06208260851300076,
      "7": 0.02709551553996466,
      "8": 0.00948277504156886,
      "9": 0.0026612400109016976
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.161,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.216,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4329,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.6267,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5721,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6267,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4329,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.161,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.886263608932495,
      "home_runs": 4.905885219573975,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_OAK@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickHOU

Published scoreOAK 5 - 6 HOU

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=276

H2H base featurehome net 19.0 · absolute 19.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9437

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.727488040924072-4.82436466217041	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "pick_probability": 0.51,
    "home_win_probability": 0.51,
    "away_win_probability": 0.49
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.02,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 276,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50685,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 19.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 19.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1096,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1096,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3829,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.128,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9437
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03224927426185315
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03128853017938636
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030678863839673935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029764904143978217
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02810629715767531
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06525763054651294,
      "1": 0.10923515424197619,
      "2": 0.1524537981577327,
      "3": 0.1774021046995046,
      "4": 0.17211708585153598,
      "5": 0.13923034448571064,
      "6": 0.09390495480229497,
      "7": 0.052806552498306486,
      "8": 0.024758927012510656,
      "9": 0.00967877782542021,
      "10": 0.0031546698784945706
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06858375883618592,
      "1": 0.11448051317660361,
      "2": 0.15843271535748468,
      "3": 0.1817863114785425,
      "4": 0.17293404659228717,
      "5": 0.13639638001619778,
      "6": 0.08919247156718066,
      "7": 0.048356690132044175,
      "8": 0.021736416622685377,
      "9": 0.008100696220788139
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0521,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.128,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 3,
    "total_run_delta": 4,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9437,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6047,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9437,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.128,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0521,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.727488040924072,
      "home_runs": 4.82436466217041,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_PIT@LAD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickLAD

Published scorePIT 3 - 4 LAD

Final confidence12.0%

Calibrationraw 56.0% → blended 55.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=204

H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7955

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5238116640051973-5.174213865212534	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.119588,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.559794,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.559794,
    "away_win_probability": 0.440206
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.119588,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.5597941,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5594,
    "published_confidence": 0.559794,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0682,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0682,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0623,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7955
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03423073956965545
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033649409615668695
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03342861105049063
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03286090339450269
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029429168335138138
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05756832175369954,
      "1": 0.09701832727563617,
      "2": 0.13818053486944437,
      "3": 0.1663270288304342,
      "4": 0.1692005081907296,
      "5": 0.1454666273804385,
      "6": 0.10569341978267258,
      "7": 0.06490159999730875,
      "8": 0.033681058383646274,
      "9": 0.014771987457436736,
      "10": 0.005475389308214943,
      "11": 0.001715196770338019
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09367587892309609,
      "1": 0.15284610927701678,
      "2": 0.19756802983598937,
      "3": 0.20230872788555213,
      "4": 0.16411498552176565,
      "5": 0.1054672270369945,
      "6": 0.05369359538154127,
      "7": 0.02165524558275561,
      "8": 0.006918937539292906,
      "9": 0.0017512630159955737
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1482,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4167,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 10,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7955,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5598,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6058,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5598,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7955,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1482,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v9",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "default-v1",
      "config_hash": "sha256:e63298e2eba41d0881c12952faac6550ebfe2dc2a674a88bf7fad52bff01320f",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-08-11T00:00:00+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.6,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5238116640051973,
      "home_runs": 5.174213865212534,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_SF@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreSF 3 - 4 BOS

Final confidence66.0%

Calibrationraw 87.8% → blended 72.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 46.0% · n=92

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.1415

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.111248016357422-3.97117280960083	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	1-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	1-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	1-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	1-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "pick_probability": 0.66,
    "home_win_probability": 0.66,
    "away_win_probability": 0.34
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.32,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 1 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.877731,
    "sample_size": 92,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5435,
    "empirical_weight": 0.46,
    "blended_confidence": 0.723985,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.4848,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.504,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.1415
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.040324184672594125
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.040186151418926196
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.03900733219828685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03887380664720745
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.036165111021780626
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04292346353138708,
      "1": 0.07329189757297072,
      "2": 0.1085730492936584,
      "3": 0.13953815168435388,
      "4": 0.15558537049709567,
      "5": 0.1505044747079153,
      "6": 0.12630918350821957,
      "7": 0.0919655780156242,
      "8": 0.0580925637653455,
      "9": 0.0318361574206503,
      "10": 0.015136504877837685,
      "11": 0.006243605124941675
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1807843154845392,
      "1": 0.2591772256206239,
      "2": 0.25829003903471986,
      "3": 0.1789341411276072,
      "4": 0.08616948593375404,
      "5": 0.028846194328910234,
      "6": 0.006712716124746118,
      "7": 0.0010858823450995384
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 1 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0855,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.504,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1415,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6475,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1415,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.504,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0855,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 16,
        "range": 15
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.111248016357422,
      "home_runs": 3.97117280960083,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_STL@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 PHI

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 52.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=276

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.084

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation usediagnostic_only_winner_disagreement

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.423437595367432-3.9155962467193604	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Simulation Winner Disagreement	4-5	Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only.

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.519935,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519935,
    "home_win_probability": 0.519935,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480065
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03987,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.519935,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.53627,
    "sample_size": 276,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.519935,
    "published_confidence": 0.519935,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0477,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0477,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0925,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.084
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02704754971225609
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02568979274997225
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025329381883677227
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024749849714262334
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024304316488087882
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.049780874386050396,
      "1": 0.08447767424410536,
      "2": 0.12284646944408449,
      "3": 0.15308220630620706,
      "4": 0.16346623080436087,
      "5": 0.14957971013291416,
      "6": 0.1172893631879328,
      "7": 0.07881082466942754,
      "8": 0.045378947428358976,
      "9": 0.022390524490475332,
      "10": 0.009467066292179705,
      "11": 0.0034301086139033373
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052042663324125465,
      "1": 0.08813783316048648,
      "2": 0.12739529300234764,
      "3": 0.15715657370676286,
      "4": 0.16546261315969935,
      "5": 0.1486809622299036,
      "6": 0.11402471737915437,
      "7": 0.07463298347906513,
      "8": 0.041691810851289875,
      "9": 0.01987736770631227,
      "10": 0.008088260715747472,
      "11": 0.0028089212851054894
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 PHI",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0008,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0487,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.084,
      "winner": "STL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5199,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5199,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0008,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.423437595367432,
      "home_runs": 3.9155962467193604,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only."
    }
  ]
}

20260821_TB@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 5 - 4 BAL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=276

H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5949

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.1232993602752686-5.073126316070557	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.55646,
    "sample_size": 276,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53003,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8184,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5949
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03238288302182719
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03136053954319815
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030745919875168806
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02977525612488929
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028262101134818616
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06555200646720766,
      "1": 0.10969914152851863,
      "2": 0.15298096409607861,
      "3": 0.1777822847936577,
      "4": 0.17216961098224762,
      "5": 0.13894452492910822,
      "6": 0.09344225345502834,
      "7": 0.052367530417020955,
      "8": 0.02445669734078872,
      "9": 0.009518104082985932,
      "10": 0.003086881907357559
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06889323506615123,
      "1": 0.11496504487915153,
      "2": 0.15897028867426757,
      "3": 0.18214909916031427,
      "4": 0.1729414148932439,
      "5": 0.13606044999726538,
      "6": 0.08870042758573028,
      "7": 0.047915987059567414,
      "8": 0.021448458242980743,
      "9": 0.007955594441327603
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0114,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.11,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5949,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5355,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5949,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0114,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 14
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.1232993602752686,
      "home_runs": 5.073126316070557,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_TOR@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreTOR 2 - 3 NYY

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=276

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7612

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	2.903885841369629-4.378183364868164	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	1-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	1-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	1-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "pick_probability": 0.51,
    "home_win_probability": 0.51,
    "away_win_probability": 0.49
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.02,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 1 - 3 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 276,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50685,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.2378,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7612
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.051033827736048
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04760514975799795
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04612750780905131
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.043028458076289224
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.042551367705800515
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1136493312437048,
      "1": 0.18200908422196627,
      "2": 0.22246108482298718,
      "3": 0.20751516647152224,
      "4": 0.14773399484732003,
      "5": 0.08026862922037638,
      "6": 0.03328480809597613,
      "7": 0.010533703129245408,
      "8": 0.0025441979469015587
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12019103697295373,
      "1": 0.19127555608055558,
      "2": 0.229405640886161,
      "3": 0.20735090744412704,
      "4": 0.14124237653856409,
      "5": 0.07250723111494839,
      "6": 0.02805142017457726,
      "7": 0.008178725162315518,
      "8": 0.00179710562579724
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 1 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0286,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.124,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7612,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6237,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7612,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0286,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 2.903885841369629,
      "home_runs": 4.378183364868164,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260821_WAS@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreWAS 3 - 5 MIA

Final confidence60.9%

Calibrationraw 66.7% → blended 60.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=263

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1165

Simulation variance1.65

Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.428813934326172-4.703540325164795	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.609383,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "pick_probability": 0.609383,
    "home_win_probability": 0.609383,
    "away_win_probability": 0.390617
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.218766,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.609383,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.667465,
    "sample_size": 263,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.609383,
    "published_confidence": 0.609383,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0039,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.34,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1165
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027056979616409092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026433802470901446
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02545579094004166
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024869492418937187
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024330832319599635
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.035883658153068765,
      "1": 0.06165729621315445,
      "2": 0.09307439434005273,
      "3": 0.12343375434076272,
      "4": 0.14381216871268698,
      "5": 0.14720254196247923,
      "6": 0.13237103388050833,
      "7": 0.10457517242461636,
      "8": 0.07258087422097843,
      "9": 0.04425616499789885,
      "10": 0.02370736779896814,
      "11": 0.011157088409418979,
      "12": 0.004612924947080788,
      "13": 0.0016755595983252095
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07034140291205421,
      "1": 0.11722867996845848,
      "2": 0.1614674057800042,
      "3": 0.18380782869432855,
      "4": 0.17293037607006911,
      "5": 0.13446421200651415,
      "6": 0.0864112485745521,
      "7": 0.04589464276263551,
      "8": 0.020145676284544584,
      "9": 0.007308526946839123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1062,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5733,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1165,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6094,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5548,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6094,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1165,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.34,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1062,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.428813934326172,
      "home_runs": 4.703540325164795,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260821	20260821_ATL@MIL	MIL	58.4%	61.0%	55.9%	50.0%	1.0-3.0	1-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 204, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5844, "published_confidence": 0.5844, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0205, "away_run_delta": -0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4664, "recent_quality_edge": 0.512, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4824 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.049923862946676854 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04691606644277429 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.04531147356448735 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04273718344239397 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.04258156278175193 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08527021696750632, "1": 0.14020442075300965, "2": 0.18545441296925033, "3": 0.1973439249692088, "4": 0.16893571580507086, "5": 0.11634033662837148, "6": 0.06445406028412286, "7": 0.028726411070174703, "8": 0.010299676538035816, "9": 0.0029708240152492467 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.14841526584962836, "1": 0.22960663000676212, "2": 0.252978970365905, "3": 0.19850825110117773, "4": 0.11093455661176495, "5": 0.044151888762863835, "6": 0.012514856324866678, "7": 0.0025263679059208347, "8": 0.0003632130711103415 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 1 - 3 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 1 - 3 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0744, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3953, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "model_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4824, "winner": "MIL", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_CHC@SEA	CHC	-34.7%	78.6%	54.8%	46.5%	5.0-3.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.786234, "sample_size": 93, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5484, "empirical_weight": 0.465, "blended_confidence": 0.675641, "published_confidence": 0.673314, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3047, "recent_quality_edge": -0.624, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0664 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0295267146045401 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.029245765847242033 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02822113738695289 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027952611288313275 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.027272784514265503 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09674517187376297, "1": 0.15740798068490092, "2": 0.2017444216287192, "3": 0.20368247463934847, "4": 0.16198810724941312, "5": 0.10148221538049025, "6": 0.05008112639727956, "7": 0.01946863833519677, "8": 0.005961758875325145, "9": 0.001438104935563678 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.033250318609808656, "1": 0.05727188254711371, "2": 0.08708850750450495, "3": 0.1169106239363587, "4": 0.13855456851122222, "5": 0.1449644337679113, "6": 0.13389853281464797, "7": 0.10918523532535486, "8": 0.07860058024076728, "9": 0.049952971886655366, "10": 0.02802661525102848, "11": 0.013882053489439479, "12": 0.006070305058830156, "13": 0.002343371056356819 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 SEA", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 3 SEA", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1851, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.624, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0664, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_CIN@ARI	ARI	12.0%	61.0%	55.9%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 204, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5844, "published_confidence": 0.559794, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 1.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0273, "away_run_delta": -0.0273, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.7969, "recent_quality_edge": 0.344, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6384 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029238701671310437 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02780630068368829 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027367184028212067 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026572619294258717 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026026468497436207 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04501213373230612, "1": 0.07671302056626135, "2": 0.11299779741716838, "3": 0.14385742586517206, "4": 0.15829092011953885, "5": 0.1505362642234009, "6": 0.12373360794965717, "7": 0.08790136742469142, "8": 0.053971563281830226, "9": 0.02864150111829209, "10": 0.01313675093770177, "11": 0.0052076473639794205 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07115787951935536, "1": 0.1185022305027235, "2": 0.1628619207690455, "3": 0.18471496437843574, "4": 0.17289168581207812, "5": 0.13354746169644835, "6": 0.08513079072113423, "7": 0.044784445059694075, "8": 0.01944272920071434, "9": 0.006965892340370806 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0833, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4607, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6384, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_CLE@COL	CLE	-17.6%	69.8%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Variance Applied (0.0072)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.698422, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.624861, "published_confidence": 0.588056, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.917, "recent_quality_edge": -0.164, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6534 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03300640732493203 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03291092968031998 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030660790722547352 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.030572098243801853 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030549766595427554 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09818510227046871, "1": 0.15953803521752583, "2": 0.20365853368208078, "3": 0.2042493658855459, "4": 0.16093057098584537, "5": 0.09961761008714035, "6": 0.04844549699533628, "7": 0.018509319146503545, "8": 0.005555807669271592, "9": 0.0013101580602820578 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0479120253502393, "1": 0.08144242105707336, "2": 0.11902866394148252, "3": 0.14957092504535147, "4": 0.16159857917712042, "5": 0.1501144965107435, "6": 0.1198953852360295, "7": 0.08233358736836024, "8": 0.04861231989867424, "9": 0.024678024630923237, "10": 0.010771326170409478, "11": 0.004042245613592766 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 COL", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 COL", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.164, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6534, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_DET@KC	DET	52.7%	55.1%	50.4%	50.0%	3.0-2.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Simulation Result (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.551136, "sample_size": 276, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.527368, "published_confidence": 0.527368, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5018, "recent_quality_edge": 0.388, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8404 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034166124626547355 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.032289466264008485 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031607016661187766 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030376994000556785 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029917004656026824 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07301470323501798, "1": 0.12139129122022099, "2": 0.1659975189205139, "3": 0.1867035269859808, "4": 0.17271907635562447, "5": 0.13142105550124952, "6": 0.08224820985714135, "7": 0.042337461719412245, "8": 0.017925036102810783, "9": 0.006242120102027732 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0696262435928102, "1": 0.11611157311161178, "2": 0.16023802623864322, "3": 0.18299667487863164, "4": 0.17294513277423534, "5": 0.13525739648129845, "6": 0.08753893063324653, "7": 0.04688446712770766, "8": 0.02077993886722545, "9": 0.007621616294589684 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "DET 4 - 3 KC", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "DET 4 - 1 KC", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1565, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.318, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": true, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": true, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8404, "winner": "DET", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_LAA@TEX	LAA	54.5%	56.4%	52.6%	50.0%	6.0-3.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Simulation Result (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 397, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5264, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.545, "published_confidence": 0.545, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4331, "recent_quality_edge": -0.692, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0393 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.036432931949443526 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03520185693863791 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03477564239115435 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.033600567478383934 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03167624768676463 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09135350277905899, "1": 0.14937500593350456, "2": 0.1943204805063673, "3": 0.20111623244798021, "4": 0.16560123927900147, "5": 0.10848456431628453, "6": 0.05654057549818654, "7": 0.02344446944371051, "8": 0.007734077187533441, "9": 0.0020298526083724205 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06804994198413127, "1": 0.11364409101981512, "2": 0.1575021931407643, "3": 0.18115361204803346, "4": 0.17291315558106057, "5": 0.1369713453073425, "6": 0.0900434346130949, "7": 0.04912414782377358, "8": 0.022241222407899566, "9": 0.008356856074084713 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 TEX", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAA 6 - 3 TEX", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.042, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.832, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0393, "winner": "LAA", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_MIN@SD	SD	8.4%	51.8%	52.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.517855, "sample_size": 317, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5205, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.519178, "published_confidence": 0.542242, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4023, "recent_quality_edge": 0.516, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4421 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032226601943234824 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031490025402616875 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030420742399806026 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029725440883395828 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028242366398504293 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06411537857269486, "1": 0.10743238902431465, "2": 0.15039615980932516, "3": 0.17590036966809422, "4": 0.17187996174510678, "5": 0.140317628392346, "6": 0.09570347655895987, "7": 0.05453454377413687, "8": 0.02596235866634018, "9": 0.010326308550597118, "10": 0.003431425238084207 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06981247791846634, "1": 0.11640262145302731, "2": 0.16055888030135873, "3": 0.18320940430110003, "4": 0.1729430271079408, "5": 0.13505174873809694, "6": 0.08724473538338265, "7": 0.04662513576034906, "8": 0.020613078204577376, "9": 0.007538890831700863 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.157, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.516, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 15, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4421, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_NYM@CHW	CHW	62.7%	70.2%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-6	hit	Simulation Result (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.702057, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.626678, "published_confidence": 0.626678, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.7823, "recent_quality_edge": -0.216, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4329 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03099557716802388 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029887067894373977 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.029363953885662132 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02831379711597744 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027868304461690047 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0433170067830409, "1": 0.07393744120906294, "2": 0.10941195933452783, "3": 0.1403652409001372, "4": 0.15611648214943535, "5": 0.15053321563066313, "6": 0.12583756982153213, "7": 0.09119745260155172, "8": 0.057299323366667314, "9": 0.031211215393574028, "10": 0.01473894062562756, "11": 0.0060341521841800645 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08704164477085351, "1": 0.14288648390905506, "2": 0.18809003047836315, "3": 0.19854135028711947, "4": 0.1680531791199155, "5": 0.11406517232925749, "6": 0.06208260851300076, "7": 0.02709551553996466, "8": 0.00948277504156886, "9": 0.0026612400109016976 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 6 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.161, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.216, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": true, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": true, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4329, "winner": "CHW", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_OAK@HOU	HOU	51.0%	51.0%	50.4%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Simulation Result (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 276, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50685, "published_confidence": 0.51, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 19.0, "absolute_net_margin": 19.0, "home_average_margin": 3.8, "home_run_delta": 0.1096, "away_run_delta": -0.1096, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3829, "recent_quality_edge": 0.128, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9437 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03224927426185315 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03128853017938636 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030678863839673935 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029764904143978217 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02810629715767531 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06525763054651294, "1": 0.10923515424197619, "2": 0.1524537981577327, "3": 0.1774021046995046, "4": 0.17211708585153598, "5": 0.13923034448571064, "6": 0.09390495480229497, "7": 0.052806552498306486, "8": 0.024758927012510656, "9": 0.00967877782542021, "10": 0.0031546698784945706 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06858375883618592, "1": 0.11448051317660361, "2": 0.15843271535748468, "3": 0.1817863114785425, "4": 0.17293404659228717, "5": 0.13639638001619778, "6": 0.08919247156718066, "7": 0.048356690132044175, "8": 0.021736416622685377, "9": 0.008100696220788139 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0521, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.128, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": true, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 3, "total_run_delta": 4, "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": true, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9437, "winner": "HOU", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_PIT@LAD	LAD	12.0%	56.0%	55.9%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	Official result pending	pending_actual	Variance Applied (-0.6504)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56, "sample_size": 204, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5594, "published_confidence": 0.559794, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": 3.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0682, "away_run_delta": -0.0682, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.0623, "recent_quality_edge": 0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7955 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03423073956965545 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033649409615668695 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03342861105049063 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03286090339450269 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029429168335138138 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05756832175369954, "1": 0.09701832727563617, "2": 0.13818053486944437, "3": 0.1663270288304342, "4": 0.1692005081907296, "5": 0.1454666273804385, "6": 0.10569341978267258, "7": 0.06490159999730875, "8": 0.033681058383646274, "9": 0.014771987457436736, "10": 0.005475389308214943, "11": 0.001715196770338019 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09367587892309609, "1": 0.15284610927701678, "2": 0.19756802983598937, "3": 0.20230872788555213, "4": 0.16411498552176565, "5": 0.1054672270369945, "6": 0.05369359538154127, "7": 0.02165524558275561, "8": 0.006918937539292906, "9": 0.0017512630159955737 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1482, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4167, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 10, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7955, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_SF@BOS	BOS	66.0%	87.8%	54.4%	46.0%	3.0-4.0	4-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.877731, "sample_size": 92, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5435, "empirical_weight": 0.46, "blended_confidence": 0.723985, "published_confidence": 0.66, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.4848, "recent_quality_edge": 0.504, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.1415 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.040324184672594125 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.040186151418926196 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.03900733219828685 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03887380664720745 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.036165111021780626 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04292346353138708, "1": 0.07329189757297072, "2": 0.1085730492936584, "3": 0.13953815168435388, "4": 0.15558537049709567, "5": 0.1505044747079153, "6": 0.12630918350821957, "7": 0.0919655780156242, "8": 0.0580925637653455, "9": 0.0318361574206503, "10": 0.015136504877837685, "11": 0.006243605124941675 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.1807843154845392, "1": 0.2591772256206239, "2": 0.25829003903471986, "3": 0.1789341411276072, "4": 0.08616948593375404, "5": 0.028846194328910234, "6": 0.006712716124746118, "7": 0.0010858823450995384 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 1 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0855, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.504, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "model_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1415, "winner": "BOS", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_STL@PHI	PHI	52.0%	53.6%	50.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	6-7	hit	Simulation Result (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.53627, "sample_size": 276, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.519935, "published_confidence": 0.519935, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -2.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0477, "away_run_delta": 0.0477, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0925, "recent_quality_edge": 0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.084 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02704754971225609 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02568979274997225 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025329381883677227 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024749849714262334 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024304316488087882 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.049780874386050396, "1": 0.08447767424410536, "2": 0.12284646944408449, "3": 0.15308220630620706, "4": 0.16346623080436087, "5": 0.14957971013291416, "6": 0.1172893631879328, "7": 0.07881082466942754, "8": 0.045378947428358976, "9": 0.022390524490475332, "10": 0.009467066292179705, "11": 0.0034301086139033373 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.052042663324125465, "1": 0.08813783316048648, "2": 0.12739529300234764, "3": 0.15715657370676286, "4": 0.16546261315969935, "5": 0.1486809622299036, "6": 0.11402471737915437, "7": 0.07463298347906513, "8": 0.041691810851289875, "9": 0.01987736770631227, "10": 0.008088260715747472, "11": 0.0028089212851054894 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 PHI", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": true, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0008, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0487, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": false, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.084, "winner": "STL", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_TB@BAL	TB	53.0%	55.6%	50.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-5	miss	Fundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.55646, "sample_size": 276, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53003, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": 3.6, "home_run_delta": 0.1038, "away_run_delta": -0.1038, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8184, "recent_quality_edge": -0.18, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5949 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03238288302182719 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03136053954319815 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030745919875168806 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02977525612488929 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028262101134818616 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06555200646720766, "1": 0.10969914152851863, "2": 0.15298096409607861, "3": 0.1777822847936577, "4": 0.17216961098224762, "5": 0.13894452492910822, "6": 0.09344225345502834, "7": 0.052367530417020955, "8": 0.02445669734078872, "9": 0.009518104082985932, "10": 0.003086881907357559 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06889323506615123, "1": 0.11496504487915153, "2": 0.15897028867426757, "3": 0.18214909916031427, "4": 0.1729414148932439, "5": 0.13606044999726538, "6": 0.08870042758573028, "7": 0.047915987059567414, "8": 0.021448458242980743, "9": 0.007955594441327603 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 6 - 4 BAL", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0114, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.11, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": true, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": true, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped", "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap", "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5949, "winner": "TB", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_TOR@NYY	NYY	51.0%	51.0%	50.4%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	1-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 276, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5036, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50685, "published_confidence": 0.51, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.2378, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7612 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.051033827736048 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04760514975799795 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.04612750780905131 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.043028458076289224 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.042551367705800515 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.1136493312437048, "1": 0.18200908422196627, "2": 0.22246108482298718, "3": 0.20751516647152224, "4": 0.14773399484732003, "5": 0.08026862922037638, "6": 0.03328480809597613, "7": 0.010533703129245408, "8": 0.0025441979469015587 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.12019103697295373, "1": 0.19127555608055558, "2": 0.229405640886161, "3": 0.20735090744412704, "4": 0.14124237653856409, "5": 0.07250723111494839, "6": 0.02805142017457726, "7": 0.008178725162315518, "8": 0.00179710562579724 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 1 - 3 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0286, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.124, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "model_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7612, "winner": "NYY", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260821	20260821_WAS@MIA	MIA	60.9%	66.7%	55.1%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.667465, "sample_size": 263, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.609383, "published_confidence": 0.609383, "published_after_governors": true }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0865, "away_run_delta": -0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ] }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0039, "recent_quality_edge": 0.34, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1165 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027056979616409092 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026433802470901446 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02545579094004166 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024869492418937187 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024330832319599635 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.035883658153068765, "1": 0.06165729621315445, "2": 0.09307439434005273, "3": 0.12343375434076272, "4": 0.14381216871268698, "5": 0.14720254196247923, "6": 0.13237103388050833, "7": 0.10457517242461636, "8": 0.07258087422097843, "9": 0.04425616499789885, "10": 0.02370736779896814, "11": 0.011157088409418979, "12": 0.004612924947080788, "13": 0.0016755595983252095 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07034140291205421, "1": 0.11722867996845848, "2": 0.1614674057800042, "3": 0.18380782869432855, "4": 0.17293037607006911, "5": 0.13446421200651415, "6": 0.0864112485745521, "7": 0.04589464276263551, "8": 0.020145676284544584, "9": 0.007308526946839123 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.65, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1062, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5733, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1165, "winner": "MIA", "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.6429, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.7857 }
R	{ "mae": 1.9286, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3571 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.9286, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3571 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.7143, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7143 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.2857, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.4286 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8571, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.4286 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.6429, "mae_innings": 1.2143, "bias_outs": 2.0714 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260821

20260821_ATL@MIL

away

Chris Sale

True

6.0

4/8

3/0

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.1627906976744184,
      "WHIP": 1.0155038759689923,
      "IP": 129.0,
      "games_started": 22,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.864,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6586,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.944,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 0.9213,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.4,
      "woba": 0.26,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 30.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 11,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0323,
            "WHIP": 0.7097,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6129,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09677,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.83432,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15976,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31361,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 685.0,
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          "run_differential": 18.0
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0279,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 85,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 182,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 153,
              "k_value": 160.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.162791,
              "k_per_9_rank": 5.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0155,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 4.23,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9213,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 102
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_ATL@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

5/4

4/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 1.7482014388489209,
      "WHIP": 0.7482014388489209,
      "IP": 139.0,
      "games_started": 23,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.043,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.4433,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8773,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.8328,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 39.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.216,
      "barrel_percent": 3.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
      "whiff_percent": 38.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 139.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.748,
      "season_WHIP": 0.748,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 423.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 84.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 0.7143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.53571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 9.4,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0656,
            "WHIP": 0.6721,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22951,
            "H_per_IP": 0.52459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14754,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.54098,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 73.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 210.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 527.0,
            "Pitches": 2083.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.1739,
            "R": 1.5217,
            "H": 3.1739,
            "BB": 1.3478,
            "SO": 9.1304,
            "HR": 0.5652,
            "BF": 22.913,
            "Pitches": 90.5652
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7482,
            "WHIP": 0.7482,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19424,
            "H_per_IP": 0.52518,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22302,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.51079,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09353
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.644,
        "predicted_H": 3.655,
        "predicted_BB": 1.159,
        "predicted_SO": 8.397,
        "predicted_HR": 0.804,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5183,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8193
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.644,
          "final": 0.9445,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 6.9517,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.804,
          "final": 0.4619,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 2.5183,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8193,
          "final": 0.8193,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 94,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.0655737704918034,
        "WHIP": 0.6721311475409836,
        "K9": 13.868852459016393,
        "HR9": 1.3278688524590163,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7211109373572873,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.6,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "runs_scored": 685.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1799,
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      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0084,
        "run_prevention": 0.9801,
        "strikeout": 1.0004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 501.0,
            "k_percent": 39.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.211,
            "xwoba": 0.216,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6927,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.8812,
            "whiff_percent": 38.1,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6713,
            "command_and_miss": 1.92,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": 1.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.59386812642065,
              "release_spin_rate": 2558.4388361121487,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.59386812642065,
                "release_spin_rate": 2558.4388361121487,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5939,
              "release_spin_rate": 2558.4388,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.4433,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8773,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.8328,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_id": 5080761,
            "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 5,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 5,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 53,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 1.7482,
              "era_rank": 1.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 9,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 119,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 139.0,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 73.0,
              "h_rank": 141,
              "er_value": 27.0,
              "er_rank": 195,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 126,
              "k_value": 210.0,
              "k_rank": 1,
              "k_per_9_value": 13.597122,
              "k_per_9_rank": null,
              "whip_value": 0.7482,
              "whip_rank": 1.0,
              "war_value": 5.04,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8773,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8773,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8328,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.16,
            "adjusted": 10
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_ATL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_NYM@CHW

away

Sean Manaea

True

6.0

4/5

1/2

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.216216216216216,
      "WHIP": 1.3153153153153154,
      "IP": 111.0,
      "games_started": 12,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2259,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0192,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0795,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 258,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8723,
            "WHIP": 1.2128,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35106,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02128,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12766
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.2882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33529,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 481.0,
            "Pitches": 1892.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2692,
            "H": 4.1923,
            "BB": 1.4231,
            "SO": 4.3462,
            "HR": 0.6154,
            "BF": 18.5,
            "Pitches": 72.7692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2162,
            "WHIP": 1.3153,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46847,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98198,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01802,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14414
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.323,
        "predicted_H": 5.326,
        "predicted_BB": 1.989,
        "predicted_SO": 5.777,
        "predicted_HR": 0.85,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6378,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2724
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.323,
          "final": 2.1879,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.326,
          "final": 4.7715,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.989,
          "final": 1.5755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.777,
          "final": 4.6158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.85,
          "final": 0.4946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6378,
          "final": 3.6378,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2724,
          "final": 1.2724,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
        "WHIP": 1.2882352941176471,
        "K9": 9.052941176470588,
        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9329600212531408,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4307,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3212,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0073,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3285,
        "offense_index": 0.8964,
        "defense_index": 1.0328,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0284
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4963,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": 32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.237,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7111,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4741,
        "offense_index": 1.0539,
        "defense_index": 0.9991,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.026
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0544,
        "offense_edge": -0.1036,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0539,
        "defense_strength": 0.0328,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0009,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9967,
        "run_prevention": 1.0081,
        "strikeout": 0.9941
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 452.0,
            "k_percent": 23.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.7,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5301,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4548,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0386,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2649
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.18500671711212,
              "release_spin_rate": 2110.382077578248,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.18500671711212,
                "release_spin_rate": 2110.382077578248,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.185,
              "release_spin_rate": 2110.3821,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2649,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8921,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2259,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0192,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.0795,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_id": 33244,
            "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 258,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 258,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 225,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 144,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 4.2162,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 162,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 119,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 111.0,
              "ip_rank": 92,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 76,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 73,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 57,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 74,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 58,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.162163,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3153,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0192,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0192,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0795,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9943,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_NYM@CHW

home

Sean Burke

True

5.2

6.0

4/7

0/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.15,
      "WHIP": 1.1071428571428572,
      "IP": 140.0,
      "games_started": 21,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.476,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2322,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9803,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0297,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9912,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.292,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 13,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22892,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1356,
            "WHIP": 0.9492,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23729,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72881,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23729,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 140.0,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 113.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 154.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 571.0,
            "Pitches": 2256.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.96,
            "R": 2.04,
            "H": 4.52,
            "BB": 1.68,
            "SO": 6.16,
            "HR": 0.64,
            "BF": 22.84,
            "Pitches": 90.24
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.15,
            "WHIP": 1.1071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11429
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.92,
        "predicted_H": 4.497,
        "predicted_BB": 1.636,
        "predicted_SO": 6.707,
        "predicted_HR": 0.656,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9976,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.064
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.92,
          "final": 1.9536,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.497,
          "final": 4.288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.636,
          "final": 0.9482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.707,
          "final": 6.4098,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.656,
          "final": 0.8006,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9976,
          "final": 2.9976,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.064,
          "final": 1.064,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 73,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.135593220338983,
        "WHIP": 0.9491525423728814,
        "K9": 11.135593220338983,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881356,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7359136603358924,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.4963,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 604.0,
        "run_differential": 32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.237,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7111,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4741,
        "offense_index": 1.0539,
        "defense_index": 0.9991,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.026
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4307,
        "runs_scored": 549.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3212,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0073,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3285,
        "offense_index": 0.8964,
        "defense_index": 1.0328,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0284
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0544,
        "offense_edge": 0.0539,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1036,
        "defense_strength": -0.0009,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0328,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 1.0099
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 525.0,
            "k_percent": 27.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.292,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0075,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6912,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2344,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4136,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0115
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.70911600111563,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.9857271235933,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.70911600111563,
                "release_spin_rate": 2508.9857271235933,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7091,
              "release_spin_rate": 2508.9857,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0115,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0824,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2322,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9803,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0297,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9912,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_id": 4867679,
            "player_name": "Sean Burke",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 13,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 13,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 246,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 76,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 47,
              "era_value": 3.15,
              "era_rank": 13.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 66,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 93,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 140.0,
              "ip_rank": 24,
              "h_value": 113.0,
              "h_rank": 65,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 85,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 57,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 50,
              "k_value": 154.0,
              "k_rank": 17,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.900001,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1071,
              "whip_rank": 16.0,
              "war_value": 3.7,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9803,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9803,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_NYM@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_SF@BOS

away

Logan Webb

True

6.1

2.2

-11

4/6

0/3

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4964028776978417,
      "WHIP": 1.064748201438849,
      "IP": 139.0,
      "games_started": 22,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.318,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1609,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9863,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 0.9522,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 20.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 48,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 0.9062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 948.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.534,
            "WHIP": 0.9581,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39267,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75393,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20419,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70681,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07853
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.0,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 116.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 560.0,
            "Pitches": 2065.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.4545,
            "R": 2.5909,
            "H": 5.2727,
            "BB": 1.4545,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4091,
            "BF": 25.4545,
            "Pitches": 93.8636
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4964,
            "WHIP": 1.0647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38849,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83453,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23022,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79137,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06475
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.279,
        "predicted_H": 5.105,
        "predicted_BB": 1.399,
        "predicted_SO": 5.024,
        "predicted_HR": 0.381,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2379,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0269
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.279,
          "final": 2.1595,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.105,
          "final": 4.6318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.399,
          "final": 0.7999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.024,
          "final": 5.0137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.381,
          "final": 0.2178,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2379,
          "final": 3.2379,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0269,
          "final": 1.0269,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 25,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.5340314136125652,
        "WHIP": 0.9581151832460733,
        "K9": 6.361256544502617,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8934620231010003,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
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          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "player_name": "Logan Webb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4203,
        "runs_scored": 574.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3913,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1594,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5507,
        "offense_index": 0.9302,
        "defense_index": 0.9826,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1859
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 137,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5109,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 518.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.365,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.781,
        "offense_index": 0.9761,
        "defense_index": 1.1827,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0461
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.232,
        "offense_edge": -0.0698,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0239,
        "defense_strength": -0.0174,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1827,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9912,
        "run_prevention": 1.0095,
        "strikeout": 0.995
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657277",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657277",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 536.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.7,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2557,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7654,
            "whiff_percent": 20.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5398,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2271,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6571,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0655
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657277",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.74484527185534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2027.2689765192515,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.74484527185534,
                "release_spin_rate": 2027.2689765192515,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7448,
              "release_spin_rate": 2027.269,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0655,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4682,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1609,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9863,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
          "walk_factor": 0.932,
          "homer_factor": 0.9522,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "657277",
            "espn_id": 41216,
            "player_name": "Logan Webb",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 48,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 48,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 325,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 64,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 3.4964,
              "era_rank": 25.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 62,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 139.0,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 116.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 62,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 155,
              "bb_value": 32.0,
              "bb_rank": 116,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 65,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.122302,
              "k_per_9_rank": 60.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0647,
              "whip_rank": 11.0,
              "war_value": 2.35,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9522,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9589,
            "adjusted": 5
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 95
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_SF@BOS

home

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

3/7

3/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.6457286432160805,
      "WHIP": 1.1457286432160805,
      "IP": 132.2,
      "games_started": 23,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.768,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1514,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9823,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9657,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 15,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5109,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5839,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.443,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1514,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 53,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 4,
              "era_value": 2.6457,
              "era_rank": 9.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 2,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 210,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 132.2,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 53,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 130,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 97,
              "k_value": 117.0,
              "k_rank": 52,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.937186,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1457,
              "whip_rank": 22.0,
              "war_value": 3.37,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9657,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_SF@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_STL@PHI

away

Hunter Dobbins

True

5.1

4.0

-4

3/5

5/3

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.42,
      "WHIP": 1.3,
      "IP": 50.0,
      "games_started": 7,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.143,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0678,
      "sample_weight": 0.764,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9942,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.993,
      "walk_factor": 1.0122,
      "homer_factor": 0.987,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 208,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690928",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 456.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.2289,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93976,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.42,
            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.42,
            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.144,
        "predicted_H": 4.785,
        "predicted_BB": 2.111,
        "predicted_SO": 5.123,
        "predicted_HR": 0.773,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5989,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2862
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4908,
      "form_weight": 0.5092,
      "form_reliability": 0.6667,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.144,
          "final": 1.5825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.785,
          "final": 3.9089,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.111,
          "final": 3.529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.123,
          "final": 4.5718,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.773,
          "final": 0.3936,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5989,
          "final": 3.5989,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2862,
          "final": 1.2862,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.42,
        "WHIP": 1.3,
        "K9": 8.82,
        "HR9": 1.26,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8891806094884349,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6667,
          "prior_weight": 0.3333
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690928",
      "player_name": "Hunter Dobbins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.518,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1655,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3022,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1367,
        "offense_index": 0.9621,
        "defense_index": 1.081,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1057
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5259,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4296,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3778,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0215,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1334
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0277,
        "offense_edge": -0.0379,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "defense_strength": 0.081,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0215,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9918,
        "strikeout": 0.9999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690928",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690928",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 191.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1443,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7407,
            "whiff_percent": 22.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1467,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1071,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0327
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690928",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33154152383064,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.8497637439427,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33154152383064,
                "release_spin_rate": 2453.8497637439427,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.8498,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0327,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2335,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0678,
          "sample_weight": 0.764,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9942,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.993,
          "walk_factor": 1.0122,
          "homer_factor": 0.987,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690928",
            "espn_id": 4415836,
            "player_name": "Hunter Dobbins",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 208,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 208,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 494,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 186,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 149,
              "era_value": 3.42,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 221,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 210,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 123,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 50.0,
              "ip_rank": 261,
              "h_value": 44.0,
              "h_rank": 250,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 295,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 206,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 234,
              "k_value": 49.0,
              "k_rank": 252,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.820001,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.7,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9901,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 96
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_STL@PHI

home

Jesús Luzardo

True

6.1

5.2

-2

2/6

4/1

5/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2328159645232812,
      "WHIP": 1.1507760532150775,
      "IP": 150.1,
      "games_started": 25,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.013,
      "recent_avg_IP": 7.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7552,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9358,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0806,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9026,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.264,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 138.0,
            "Pitches": 512.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 27.6,
            "Pitches": 102.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 0.9714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 257.0,
            "Pitches": 993.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 25.7,
            "Pitches": 99.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9485,
            "WHIP": 0.9433,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64948,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29381,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04639
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.1,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 127.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 185.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 621.0,
            "Pitches": 2438.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.16,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.08,
            "BB": 1.84,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.48,
            "BF": 24.84,
            "Pitches": 97.52
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2328,
            "WHIP": 1.1508,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3592,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84479,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30599,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2306,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07982
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.048,
        "predicted_H": 4.962,
        "predicted_BB": 1.92,
        "predicted_SO": 7.903,
        "predicted_HR": 0.475,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8232,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0543
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.048,
          "final": 2.4483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.962,
          "final": 3.7167,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.92,
          "final": 2.7945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.903,
          "final": 6.2621,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.475,
          "final": 0.6957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8232,
          "final": 2.8232,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0543,
          "final": 1.0543,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 88,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.9484536082474226,
        "WHIP": 0.9432989690721649,
        "K9": 12.24742268041237,
        "HR9": 0.41752577319587625,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.714714114643074,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666200",
      "player_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.375,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.375,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5259,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4296,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3778,
        "offense_index": 0.9906,
        "defense_index": 1.0215,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1334
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.518,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1655,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3022,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1367,
        "offense_index": 0.9621,
        "defense_index": 1.081,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1057
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0277,
        "offense_edge": -0.0094,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0379,
        "defense_strength": 0.0215,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.081,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0033,
        "run_prevention": 0.9904,
        "strikeout": 1.0039
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 588.0,
            "k_percent": 29.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.264,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5717,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.985,
            "whiff_percent": 31.9,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8136,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8986,
            "regression_edge": 0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0393
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.61616117466934,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.7543527666126,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.61616117466934,
                "release_spin_rate": 2201.7543527666126,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2201.7544,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0393,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2804,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7552,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9358,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0806,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9026,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666200",
            "espn_id": 39667,
            "player_name": "Jesus Luzardo",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 246,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 15,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 14,
              "era_value": 3.2328,
              "era_rank": 18.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 119,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 150.1,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 127.0,
              "h_rank": 30,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 62,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 111,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 33,
              "k_value": 185.0,
              "k_rank": 6,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.075389,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1507,
              "whip_rank": 24.0,
              "war_value": 4.6,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9358,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9358,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9026,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0806,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 102
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_STL@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_TB@BAL

away

Freddy Peralta

True

5.0

7.0

4/7

0/1

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.2734375,
      "WHIP": 1.4765625,
      "IP": 128.0,
      "games_started": 25,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.12,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.022,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 1.002,
      "homer_factor": 0.9925,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.348,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 779,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9859,
            "WHIP": 1.6479,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88732,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26761,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80282,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21127
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.9,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.8,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22222
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.0,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 123.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 573.0,
            "Pitches": 2338.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.32,
            "H": 5.44,
            "BB": 2.12,
            "SO": 4.92,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.92,
            "Pitches": 93.52
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2734,
            "WHIP": 1.4766,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58594,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41406,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96094,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15625
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.663,
        "predicted_H": 5.78,
        "predicted_BB": 1.922,
        "predicted_SO": 4.262,
        "predicted_HR": 0.93,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.9003,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6122
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.663,
          "final": 2.9638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.78,
          "final": 5.0316,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.922,
          "final": 1.1139,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.262,
          "final": 5.8336,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.93,
          "final": 0.539,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.9003,
          "final": 6.9003,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6122,
          "final": 1.6122,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.0,
        "ER": 39,
        "H": 61,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 7.8,
        "WHIP": 1.8,
        "K9": 8.4,
        "HR9": 2.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.3944306094884347,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        },
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      "opponent": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 779,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 246,
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              "l_rank": 12,
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              "whip_value": 1.4765,
              "whip_rank": 53.0,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9981,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 91
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_TB@BAL

home

Trevor Rogers

True

5.2

7.0

-3

9/6

5/1

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "whiff_percent": 23.6
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 138,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.4783,
        "runs_scored": 607.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
        "run_differential": -24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1739,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3986,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5725,
        "offense_index": 0.9836,
        "defense_index": 0.978,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0748
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.5852,
        "runs_scored": 596.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2593,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4148,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1556,
        "offense_index": 0.9873,
        "defense_index": 1.0761,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1043
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1791,
        "offense_edge": -0.0164,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0127,
        "defense_strength": -0.022,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0761,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
        "run_prevention": 1.0091,
        "strikeout": 0.9956
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 499.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.308,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2605,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0998,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 52.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0516,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0807,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0446
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.11923672661942,
              "release_spin_rate": 2191.06139917301,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.11923672661942,
                "release_spin_rate": 2191.06139917301,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1192,
              "release_spin_rate": 2191.0614,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0446,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3184,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0043,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9996,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9794,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 1.0057,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669432",
            "espn_id": 39640,
            "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 104,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 104,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 53,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 34,
              "era_value": 4.1538,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 33,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 125.2,
              "ip_rank": 58,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 42,
              "er_value": 58.0,
              "er_rank": 48,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 87,
              "k_value": 108.0,
              "k_rank": 68,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.734748,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2493,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.5,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9794,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 31,
      "Pitches": 118
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_TB@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_TOR@NYY

away

Mason Fluharty

True

5.0

0.2

-13

-1

2/0

1/2

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.176470588235294,
      "WHIP": 1.1372549019607843,
      "IP": 51.0,
      "games_started": 3,
      "games_pitched": 65,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.222,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5093,
      "sample_weight": 0.816,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9567,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0336,
      "walk_factor": 1.0049,
      "homer_factor": 0.943,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.259,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 28.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 196,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 51.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.176,
      "season_WHIP": 1.137,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.224,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6716,
        "prior_weight": 0.3284
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689254",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 65,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 12.0,
            "Pitches": 37.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 0.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 2.4,
            "Pitches": 7.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 0.5,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 2.4,
            "Pitches": 8.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.1304,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13043,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 65,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 820.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.2769,
            "R": 0.2769,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.2923,
            "SO": 0.8615,
            "HR": 0.0923,
            "BF": 3.2,
            "Pitches": 12.6154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.1373,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37255,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09804,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11765
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.489,
        "predicted_H": 0.974,
        "predicted_BB": 0.464,
        "predicted_SO": 1.591,
        "predicted_HR": 0.148,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.9079,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.6231
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4887,
      "form_weight": 0.5113,
      "form_reliability": 0.6716,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.224,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6716,
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 8,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9647,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9647,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9535,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 78
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_TOR@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.0

5/6

2/3

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.1907894736842106,
      "WHIP": 0.9407894736842105,
      "IP": 152.0,
      "games_started": 26,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.846,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6446,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9452,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 0.9926,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.253,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 152.0,
      "season_ERA": 2.191,
      "season_WHIP": 0.941,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1724,
            "WHIP": 0.8621,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.51724,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 943.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 94.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.0175,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73684,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2807,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.40351,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 152.0,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 189.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 602.0,
            "Pitches": 2386.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4231,
            "R": 1.6923,
            "H": 4.1923,
            "BB": 1.3077,
            "SO": 7.2692,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 23.1538,
            "Pitches": 91.7692
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1908,
            "WHIP": 0.9408,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24342,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71711,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22368,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24342,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09211
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.794,
        "predicted_H": 4.053,
        "predicted_BB": 1.711,
        "predicted_SO": 7.779,
        "predicted_HR": 0.644,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7956,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9978
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.794,
          "final": 1.462,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.053,
          "final": 4.449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.711,
          "final": 1.8318,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.779,
          "final": 7.0351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.644,
          "final": 0.3747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7956,
          "final": 2.7956,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9978,
          "final": 0.9978,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 80,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.0175438596491229,
        "K9": 12.631578947368421,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.834869205979663,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 139,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.554,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 510.0,
        "run_differential": 85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6115,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2806,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6691,
        "offense_index": 0.9573,
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        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": 11.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 136,
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        "win_pct": 0.4853,
        "runs_scored": 545.0,
        "runs_allowed": 575.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2206,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2279,
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      "edges": {
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        "defense_strength": 0.2188,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0121
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.253,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3344,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9534,
            "whiff_percent": 28.8,
            "swing_percent": 52.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7427,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9364,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84755837212556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2495.44392322315,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84755837212556,
                "release_spin_rate": 2495.44392322315,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8476,
              "release_spin_rate": 2495.4439,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6446,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9452,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 0.9926,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_id": 5134581,
            "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 2,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 2,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 225,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 3,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 2.1907,
              "era_rank": 3.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 21,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 93,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 323,
              "ip_value": 152.0,
              "ip_rank": 5,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 76,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 138,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 82,
              "bb_value": 34.0,
              "bb_rank": 97,
              "k_value": 189.0,
              "k_rank": 4,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.190789,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21.0,
              "whip_value": 0.9407,
              "whip_rank": 3.0,
              "war_value": 5.2,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9452,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9452,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.072,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 99
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_TOR@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_WAS@MIA

away

Brad Lord

True

4.1

2.2

-5

7/0

2/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.042780748663102,
      "WHIP": 1.2513368983957218,
      "IP": 62.1,
      "games_started": 3,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.889,
      "last_start_IP": 0.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0788,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0067,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.008,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 209,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.496,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7142,
        "prior_weight": 0.2858
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695418",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 41.0,
            "Pitches": 208.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.2,
            "Pitches": 41.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 2.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 90.0,
            "Pitches": 404.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 9.0,
            "Pitches": 40.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9138,
            "WHIP": 1.7069,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.87931,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67241,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 269.0,
            "Pitches": 1135.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.9333,
            "R": 0.9667,
            "H": 1.7667,
            "BB": 0.8333,
            "SO": 1.9,
            "HR": 0.2333,
            "BF": 8.9667,
            "Pitches": 37.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0428,
            "WHIP": 1.2513,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4492,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85027,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40107,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1123
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.916,
        "predicted_H": 2.61,
        "predicted_BB": 1.565,
        "predicted_SO": 2.376,
        "predicted_HR": 0.351,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.7373,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6308
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4708,
      "form_weight": 0.5292,
      "form_reliability": 0.7142,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.496,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7142,
        "prior_weight": 0.2858
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 3.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.916,
          "final": 3.3678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.61,
          "final": 4.6766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.565,
          "final": 1.7698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.376,
          "final": 2.199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.351,
          "final": 0.6565,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.7373,
          "final": 6.7373,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6308,
          "final": 1.6308,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 7.913793103448277,
        "WHIP": 1.7068965517241381,
        "K9": 10.241379310344827,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2553436117780183,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.496,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7142,
          "prior_weight": 0.2858
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695418",
      "player_name": "Brad Lord",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4593,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.037,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0593,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0222,
        "offense_index": 1.1314,
        "defense_index": 0.8904,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 562.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2256,
        "offense_index": 0.9719,
        "defense_index": 1.0582,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.018
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.118,
        "offense_edge": 0.1314,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0281,
        "defense_strength": -0.1096,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0582,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9931,
        "run_prevention": 1.0124,
        "strikeout": 0.9987
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695418",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695418",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 257.0,
            "k_percent": 21.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2942,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.299,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1409,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3193,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0313
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695418",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 44,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 44,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.4745524362987,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.5488842082596,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 44,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.4745524362987,
                "release_spin_rate": 2440.5488842082596,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4746,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.5489,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0313,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2237,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0788,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0067,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 1.004,
          "homer_factor": 1.008,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695418",
            "espn_id": 4866810,
            "player_name": "Brad Lord",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 209,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 209,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 198,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 236,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 203,
              "era_value": 4.0427,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 117,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 293,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 123,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 134,
              "ip_value": 62.1,
              "ip_rank": 186,
              "h_value": 53.0,
              "h_rank": 194,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 186,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 206,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 186,
              "k_value": 57.0,
              "k_rank": 204,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.229947,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2513,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.7,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0067,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0067,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -7."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260821

20260821_WAS@MIA

home

Ryan Gusto

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-2

5/5

2/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.695652173913044,
      "WHIP": 1.3229813664596275,
      "IP": 53.2,
      "games_started": 11,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.03,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2007,
      "sample_weight": 0.864,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0171,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9719,
      "walk_factor": 0.9447,
      "homer_factor": 1.0609,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 469,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260821",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 349.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 69.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.2609,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08696,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17391,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 153.0,
            "Pitches": 548.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 15.3,
            "Pitches": 54.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0374,
            "WHIP": 1.1776,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4486,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98131,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19626,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16822
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 237.0,
            "Pitches": 858.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.9375,
            "H": 3.5625,
            "BB": 0.875,
            "SO": 3.0625,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 14.8125,
            "Pitches": 53.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6957,
            "WHIP": 1.323,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06211,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14907
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.048,
        "predicted_H": 4.232,
        "predicted_BB": 0.984,
        "predicted_SO": 3.872,
        "predicted_HR": 0.729,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4761,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2667
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.048,
          "final": 2.0264,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.232,
          "final": 4.5781,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.984,
          "final": 1.4418,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.872,
          "final": 4.8309,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.729,
          "final": 0.8511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4761,
          "final": 4.4761,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2667,
          "final": 1.2667,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 35.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.037383177570093,
        "WHIP": 1.1775700934579438,
        "K9": 8.327102803738317,
        "HR9": 1.5140186915887848,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9555754693015188,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.8667,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.8667,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": 0.8667,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": 0.8667,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 133,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5038,
        "runs_scored": 578.0,
        "runs_allowed": 562.0,
        "run_differential": 16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2256,
        "offense_index": 0.9719,
        "defense_index": 1.0582,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.018
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 135,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4593,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": 5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.037,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0593,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0222,
        "offense_index": 1.1314,
        "defense_index": 0.8904,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.118,
        "offense_edge": -0.0281,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1314,
        "defense_strength": 0.0582,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1096,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0012,
        "run_prevention": 1.0093,
        "strikeout": 0.993
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 216.0,
            "k_percent": 20.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7019,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2455,
            "whiff_percent": 21.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 22.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5142,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3909,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1464,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0479
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 60,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 60,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.06040499854333,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.5436386650736,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 60,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.06040499854333,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.5436386650736,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0604,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.5436,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0479,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3419,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2007,
          "sample_weight": 0.864,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0171,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9719,
          "walk_factor": 0.9447,
          "homer_factor": 1.0609,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 469,
            "espn_total_ranked": 821,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 469,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 409,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 153,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 172,
              "era_value": 4.6956,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 497,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 210,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 239,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 249,
              "ip_value": 53.2,
              "ip_rank": 228,
              "h_value": 57.0,
              "h_rank": 174,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 186,
              "hr_value": 8.0,
              "hr_rank": 182,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 360,
              "k_value": 49.0,
              "k_rank": 252,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.217391,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3229,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.01,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0148,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9522,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0526,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9757,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 94
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260821_WAS@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}