Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260820 · dates 20260820 · generated 2026-08-21T00:38:07.483825+00:00

4-2
Winner picks · 66.7%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20260820963429Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied9
applied games: 9formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored9
available games: 9
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X9
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support9
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 109
configured window: 10last 10 games: 9observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented9
settled games: 6metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3161.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55352.5%66.7%-14.1%underconfident
0.55-0.60257.0%100.0%-43.0%underconfident
0.60-0.65161.2%0.0%61.2%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml62.54434.10232.749766.7%0.00.0
variance_applied62.58334.16672.833350.0%0.0390.0836
enhanced_prediction62.41673.52.566.7%-0.1276-0.2497
embedded_savant_run_environment62.41673.52.566.7%-0.1276-0.2497
fundamental_edge_target_review62.41673.52.566.7%-0.1276-0.2497
capped_target62.41673.52.566.7%-0.1276-0.2497
simulation_result62.253.83332.566.7%-0.2943-0.2497
published_final62.754.16672.833366.7%0.20570.0836
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "published_final",
  "games": 6,
  "team_run_mae": 2.75,
  "total_run_mae": 4.1667,
  "margin_mae": 2.8333,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2057,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0836
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result2.02
enhanced_prediction0.02
embedded_savant_run_environment0.02
fundamental_edge_target_review0.02
capped_target0.02
variance_applied-1.10082
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.1008,
      "games": 2
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result8.04
variance_applied0.02494
enhanced_prediction0.04
embedded_savant_run_environment0.04
fundamental_edge_target_review0.04
capped_target0.04
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0249,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=6

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)2110.5
[0.525, 0.550)1101.0
[0.550, 0.600)2201.0
[0.600, 1.010)1010.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
2026082090.54337.00.6667
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260820",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5433,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.0,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=6

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v16420.6667
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260820_ATL@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHW
Published scoreATL 3 - 6 CHW
Final confidence61.2%
Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=261
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1561
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.70300555229187-5.399208068847656Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.6121,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.6121,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 261,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6121,
    "published_confidence": 0.6121,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5288,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.536,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1561
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03599091595609412
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03430676849301909
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03422521346071631
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03262368971807573
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03229081821237409
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0522348778727548,
      "1": 0.08844821418487059,
      "2": 0.12777826004705284,
      "3": 0.15749409952937884,
      "4": 0.16561932933592172,
      "5": 0.14859259660314433,
      "6": 0.1137424918472312,
      "7": 0.07428270690438177,
      "8": 0.04138968492929381,
      "9": 0.019675960220787703,
      "10": 0.007980299075633395,
      "11": 0.0027614794495490072
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10911433634456884,
      "1": 0.17550367687763668,
      "2": 0.2173110837992503,
      "3": 0.2071422981277475,
      "4": 0.15200117908573754,
      "5": 0.0858650402120231,
      "6": 0.03734023550145058,
      "7": 0.012500545980916086,
      "8": 0.003221604070669322
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0076,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.886,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1561,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.6121,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5937,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6121,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1561,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.536,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0076,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.70300555229187,
      "home_runs": 5.399208068847656,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_LAA@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickHOU
Published scoreLAA 3 - 4 HOU
Final confidence54.2%
Calibrationraw 58.0% → blended 54.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=270
H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3128
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.111227035522461-5.429915904998779Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.542074,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.542074,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.580448,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.542074,
    "published_confidence": 0.542074,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5675,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3128
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03553860277811149
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03286984913078247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032128914711023984
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03212081992617032
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031601959483926544
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07304772011086164,
      "1": 0.12144257151631421,
      "2": 0.16605282476109987,
      "3": 0.18673795789054184,
      "4": 0.17271496409625292,
      "5": 0.13138275131359192,
      "6": 0.08219733972794842,
      "7": 0.04229491884797241,
      "8": 0.01789903651851502,
      "9": 0.006229915216901544
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07666065117744948,
      "1": 0.12703467206140448,
      "2": 0.17201012739465768,
      "3": 0.19031268832308193,
      "4": 0.17205347575802793,
      "5": 0.1270987082793579,
      "6": 0.07671862365867134,
      "7": 0.037839243827145555,
      "8": 0.015249867659383659,
      "9": 0.005021941860820101
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0621,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1017,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3128,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5421,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6081,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5421,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3128,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.16,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0621,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.111227035522461,
      "home_runs": 5.429915904998779,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_NYY@BAL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickNYY
Published scoreNYY 3 - 2 BAL
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=270
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7045
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.2023749351501465-3.1688930988311768Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5069,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0752,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7045
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04233656359328015
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04182905984464923
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04182412996288114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.04132276894210244
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033788164036401565
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09620423994183662,
      "1": 0.15660612167043897,
      "2": 0.2010179064157323,
      "3": 0.20345681710191102,
      "4": 0.16237577467564376,
      "5": 0.10218372149521991,
      "6": 0.05070533827033064,
      "7": 0.019839793278820933,
      "8": 0.00612113686931044,
      "9": 0.0014891502807553509
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10153687113037303,
      "1": 0.16448756072460527,
      "2": 0.20808623764164103,
      "3": 0.20556760180678307,
      "4": 0.15858678491864134,
      "5": 0.09553892134282518,
      "6": 0.04494637662197231,
      "7": 0.016512394402146496,
      "8": 0.0047372514110123505
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 3 - 2 BAL",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2104,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7045,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5403,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7045,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.016,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.02,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.2023749351501465,
      "home_runs": 3.1688930988311768,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_OAK@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickKC
Published scoreOAK 3 - 4 KC
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 65.8% → blended 59.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.2% · weight 50.0% · n=314
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5566
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.551788330078125-5.115714073181152Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 KC",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.657682,
    "sample_size": 314,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5318,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.594741,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6668,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.352,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5566
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030130766369842802
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02816906530286086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028120269910993492
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02769281681284066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026588373525999347
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04923380280752594,
      "1": 0.08359018562803544,
      "2": 0.12173443914962273,
      "3": 0.15206801975101647,
      "4": 0.16294032702905298,
      "5": 0.1497564506807948,
      "6": 0.11806162459961635,
      "7": 0.0798359014605935,
      "8": 0.04630778130342237,
      "9": 0.023039655206779436,
      "10": 0.009832506431503766,
      "11": 0.0035993059520362256
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07134407803842403,
      "1": 0.11879239351987206,
      "2": 0.16317859434060497,
      "3": 0.1849190247695425,
      "4": 0.17287964137839365,
      "5": 0.1333367801553859,
      "6": 0.08483985662268406,
      "7": 0.04453420872113094,
      "8": 0.019285522358725257,
      "9": 0.006889900095236527
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 2 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4687,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5566,
      "winner": "KC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5571,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5566,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.352,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.551788330078125,
      "home_runs": 5.115714073181152,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_SEA@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIL
Published scoreSEA 2 - 4 MIL
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 76.6% → blended 64.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 52.8% · weight 50.0% · n=163
H2H base featurehome net 20.0 · absolute 20.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4003
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.067477226257324-4.928627014160156Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.765641,
    "sample_size": 163,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5276,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.64662,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 20.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
    "home_average_margin": 10.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.15,
    "away_run_delta": -0.15,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 22.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.7795,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.696,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4003
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025683124650796817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02509624681194875
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023840612965697044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023442585751820868
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02329583784178363
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027848037327621176,
      "1": 0.048212833366408636,
      "2": 0.07444735767774643,
      "3": 0.1025308345911379,
      "4": 0.1259442277540815,
      "5": 0.13798142127752155,
      "6": 0.13482844673016545,
      "7": 0.11750626428024145,
      "8": 0.09133959439303432,
      "9": 0.06332507442464666,
      "10": 0.03915713514628997,
      "11": 0.021595570530187756,
      "12": 0.010622751575695347,
      "13": 0.004660450925221805
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07247361270521595,
      "1": 0.12055043983780815,
      "2": 0.16508891407789505,
      "3": 0.18613465793442174,
      "4": 0.17278132624642634,
      "5": 0.13204640567481243,
      "6": 0.08308384524044876,
      "7": 0.04303946014001171,
      "8": 0.018355966876990037,
      "9": 0.006445371265969709
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 3 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 1 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0123,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.696,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4003,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6111,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4003,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.696,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0123,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.067477226257324,
      "home_runs": 4.928627014160156,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_SF@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreSF 3 - 4 CLE
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=270
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3548
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.5659420490264893-4.929645538330078Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5069,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.045,
    "away_run_delta": -0.045,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4252,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3548
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.038888732968593034
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03688610365195149
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03617430260128009
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03431145664646607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033770178792324045
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08302019908462185,
      "1": 0.13678406852863037,
      "2": 0.18204267307653088,
      "3": 0.19570270587363234,
      "4": 0.1699442193920692,
      "5": 0.11920703962637515,
      "6": 0.06754346695137106,
      "7": 0.03091368196388818,
      "8": 0.011428890197230788,
      "9": 0.0034130553056500954
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08730650647418414,
      "1": 0.14328668469978956,
      "2": 0.18848029457379759,
      "3": 0.19871331259826305,
      "4": 0.1679147581695605,
      "5": 0.11372387968672873,
      "6": 0.06173271247746512,
      "7": 0.026858388179451964,
      "8": 0.009365811797038758,
      "9": 0.002617651343720701
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1947,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.224,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3548,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5179,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3548,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1947,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5659420490264893,
      "home_runs": 4.929645538330078,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_STL@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSTL
Published scoreSTL 5 - 4 CIN
Final confidence54.4%
Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 54.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 52.4% · weight 50.0% · n=389
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7091
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.618680953979492-4.432327747344971Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.544,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 5 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.544,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 389,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5244,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544,
    "published_confidence": 0.544,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8045,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.532,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7091
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02915434126208991
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02818623661639349
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027339220570181056
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026631409035674715
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02643138917019236
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06582309492686253,
      "1": 0.1101262012564036,
      "2": 0.15346529752212443,
      "3": 0.17812992265882122,
      "4": 0.17221490629425026,
      "5": 0.13867934020305492,
      "6": 0.09301649282898516,
      "7": 0.0519655251998262,
      "8": 0.024181199944373892,
      "9": 0.009372329356657279,
      "10": 0.003025689808640674
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04999663596287862,
      "1": 0.08482746028290589,
      "2": 0.12328378321011674,
      "3": 0.15347910200660037,
      "4": 0.1636689716523949,
      "5": 0.1495055330298595,
      "6": 0.11698279284572755,
      "7": 0.07840802471428328,
      "8": 0.04501661635832862,
      "9": 0.022139050536837145,
      "10": 0.009326505326746838,
      "11": 0.0033655240733207422
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "STL 5 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.054,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.5903,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7091,
      "winner": "STL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.544,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6292,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.544,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7091,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.532,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.054,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 16
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.618680953979492,
      "home_runs": 4.432327747344971,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_TOR@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickTB
Published scoreTOR 3 - 5 TB
Final confidence52.1%
Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 52.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=270
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6671
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml2.9956417083740234-5.400259494781494Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.521427,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.521427,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539154,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.521427,
    "published_confidence": 0.521427,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9812,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6671
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03280921946695437
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0315856368500693
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03095498842457221
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029800557250726882
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028763385371270794
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0665025228258909,
      "1": 0.11119560106047183,
      "2": 0.15467442504965495,
      "3": 0.1789908505475526,
      "4": 0.172315589847369,
      "5": 0.13800655917107488,
      "6": 0.09195096742617913,
      "7": 0.050967613120965066,
      "8": 0.02350248076591313,
      "9": 0.00901601310256964,
      "10": 0.002877377082358824
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06989303782301949,
      "1": 0.11652848985302716,
      "2": 0.16069751768473334,
      "3": 0.18330109816556198,
      "4": 0.17294173601543048,
      "5": 0.1349625919272628,
      "6": 0.08711759044197107,
      "7": 0.046513299529419856,
      "8": 0.020541269965732967,
      "9": 0.007503368593840764
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0104,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.259,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6671,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5214,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5444,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5214,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6671,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0104,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 2.9956417083740234,
      "home_runs": 5.400259494781494,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260820_WAS@TEX

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickWAS
Published scoreWAS 3 - 2 TEX
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=270
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4405
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.4863719940185547-5.081294059753418Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5069,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4063,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.504,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4405
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029698090510267627
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029641036972365205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02923290603950181
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029176746175885462
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025259429901327013
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060018174110017954,
      "1": 0.10092752117103805,
      "2": 0.14281457657816785,
      "3": 0.17004801557219218,
      "4": 0.17037532668855848,
      "5": 0.14364084022834947,
      "6": 0.10190260211977487,
      "7": 0.06083152625888204,
      "8": 0.030556826893079446,
      "9": 0.012915876884044535,
      "10": 0.004593837632952464,
      "11": 0.0013748758629427414
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06293936034763549,
      "1": 0.10557238741694866,
      "2": 0.14825755813516692,
      "3": 0.17430980815992764,
      "4": 0.17157945700047741,
      "5": 0.14139929212773023,
      "6": 0.09755907268092193,
      "7": 0.05635423698447218,
      "8": 0.027253605579129703,
      "9": 0.011034682478758313,
      "10": 0.003740539088831434
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 1 TEX",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.504,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -3,
    "total_run_delta": -3,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4405,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.558,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4405,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.504,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.4863719940185547,
      "home_runs": 5.081294059753418,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026082020260820_ATL@CHWCHW61.2%67.2%55.2%50.0%3.0-6.02-0missSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 261,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6121,
    "published_confidence": 0.6121,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.015,
    "away_run_delta": -0.015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5288,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.536,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1561
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03599091595609412
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03430676849301909
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03422521346071631
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03262368971807573
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03229081821237409
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0522348778727548,
      "1": 0.08844821418487059,
      "2": 0.12777826004705284,
      "3": 0.15749409952937884,
      "4": 0.16561932933592172,
      "5": 0.14859259660314433,
      "6": 0.1137424918472312,
      "7": 0.07428270690438177,
      "8": 0.04138968492929381,
      "9": 0.019675960220787703,
      "10": 0.007980299075633395,
      "11": 0.0027614794495490072
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10911433634456884,
      "1": 0.17550367687763668,
      "2": 0.2173110837992503,
      "3": 0.2071422981277475,
      "4": 0.15200117908573754,
      "5": 0.0858650402120231,
      "6": 0.03734023550145058,
      "7": 0.012500545980916086,
      "8": 0.003221604070669322
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0076,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.886,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1561,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082020260820_LAA@HOUHOU54.2%58.0%50.4%50.0%3.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualVariance Applied (-0.3187)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.580448,
    "sample_size": 270,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5037,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.542074,
    "published_confidence": 0.542074,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5675,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3128
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03553860277811149
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03286984913078247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032128914711023984
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03212081992617032
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031601959483926544
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07304772011086164,
      "1": 0.12144257151631421,
      "2": 0.16605282476109987,
      "3": 0.18673795789054184,
      "4": 0.17271496409625292,
      "5": 0.13138275131359192,
      "6": 0.08219733972794842,
      "7": 0.04229491884797241,
      "8": 0.01789903651851502,
      "9": 0.006229915216901544
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07666065117744948,
      "1": 0.12703467206140448,
      "2": 0.17201012739465768,
      "3": 0.19031268832308193,
      "4": 0.17205347575802793,
      "5": 0.1270987082793579,
      "6": 0.07671862365867134,
      "7": 0.037839243827145555,
      "8": 0.015249867659383659,
      "9": 0.005021941860820101
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0621,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1017,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3128,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026082020260820_NYY@BALNYY51.0%51.0%50.4%50.0%3.0-2.0Official result pendingpending_actualFundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_OAK@KCKC58.0%65.8%53.2%50.0%3.0-4.02-6hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_SEA@MILMIL56.0%76.6%52.8%50.0%2.0-4.04-7hitSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_SF@CLECLE51.0%51.0%50.4%50.0%3.0-4.02-5hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_STL@CINSTL54.4%56.4%52.4%50.0%5.0-4.010-9hitEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_TOR@TBTB52.1%53.9%50.4%50.0%3.0-5.05-1missEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026082020260820_WAS@TEXWAS51.0%51.0%50.4%50.0%3.0-2.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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