Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260819 · dates 20260819 · generated 2026-08-20T01:42:46.805431+00:00

4-5
Winner picks · 44.4%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
2026081915964515Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored15
available games: 15
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X15
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 2published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1015
configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 9metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3116.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55452.8%75.0%-22.2%underconfident
0.55-0.60457.0%25.0%31.9%overconfident
0.60-0.65164.0%0.0%64.0%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml91.8943.69441.545655.6%0.00.0
variance_applied91.72223.44441.666733.3%-0.17180.1211
enhanced_prediction91.88893.55561.777844.4%-0.00510.2322
embedded_savant_run_environment91.94443.66671.888944.4%0.05040.3433
fundamental_edge_target_review91.94443.66671.888944.4%0.05040.3433
capped_target91.94443.66671.888944.4%0.05040.3433
simulation_result91.66673.11112.444433.3%-0.22730.8988
published_final91.52.77781.888944.4%-0.3940.3433
simulation_winner_disagreement11.53.01.0100.0%-0.394-0.5456
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 9,
  "team_run_mae": 1.9444,
  "total_run_mae": 3.6667,
  "margin_mae": 1.8889,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4444,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0504,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3433
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction5.05
simulation_result1.05
embedded_savant_run_environment0.05
fundamental_edge_target_review0.05
capped_target0.05
variance_applied-0.28985
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2898,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_winner_disagreement4.01
enhanced_prediction2.04
embedded_savant_run_environment1.04
variance_applied0.2954
fundamental_edge_target_review0.04
capped_target0.04
simulation_result-2.04
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.295,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "games": 4
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=9

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)1010.0
[0.525, 0.550)3301.0
[0.550, 0.600)4130.25
[0.600, 1.010)1010.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.25
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260819150.56337.33330.4444
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260819",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5633,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.3333,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v19450.4444
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260819_ARI@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickBOS
Published scoreARI 4 - 5 BOS
Final confidence55.8%
Calibrationraw 58.7% → blended 55.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.0% · weight 50.0% · n=302
H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5624
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.3184494972229-4.501953125Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.558333,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.558333,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.586867,
    "sample_size": 302,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5298,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.558333,
    "published_confidence": 0.558333,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 7.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7683,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5624
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03542756548316104
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03477593386996129
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03467396828564807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034036197849495665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030192406922344307
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06338463160250386,
      "1": 0.10627710280584063,
      "2": 0.14906969450930624,
      "3": 0.17491736837565114,
      "4": 0.17170005199004018,
      "5": 0.14099439135541747,
      "6": 0.09685614200021249,
      "7": 0.05566041161866081,
      "8": 0.026758365391615496,
      "9": 0.01076134772037064,
      "10": 0.0036204926303809795
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09415640560885323,
      "1": 0.15356224229098298,
      "2": 0.19823056228002775,
      "3": 0.20253886627814502,
      "4": 0.16379390252048978,
      "5": 0.10484281670831244,
      "6": 0.05311671691111075,
      "7": 0.021299791958405482,
      "8": 0.006760379765698714,
      "9": 0.001698315677973858
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1331,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.53,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5624,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5583,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6265,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5583,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5624,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1331,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 3,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.3184494972229,
      "home_runs": 4.501953125,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_ATL@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIN
Published scoreATL 3 - 4 MIN
Final confidence59.6%
Calibrationraw 64.7% → blended 59.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=283
H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8584
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usediagnostic_only_winner_disagreement
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.421596050262451-4.686009407043457Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Simulation Winner Disagreement3-4Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only.
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.595624,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.595624,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647047,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5442,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.595624,
    "published_confidence": 0.595624,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3228,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8584
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03367253676773579
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033388463665696935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03192880980208734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03165944738049581
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030322462273617738
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05177476584466236,
      "1": 0.08770506639152807,
      "2": 0.12686059455055818,
      "3": 0.1566838829946373,
      "4": 0.1652408543804731,
      "5": 0.14880107214889754,
      "6": 0.11441690915293232,
      "7": 0.07512247457213604,
      "8": 0.042115802628290275,
      "9": 0.020161173206310064,
      "10": 0.008241040382363079,
      "11": 0.002876363747211834
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09698061902561292,
      "1": 0.15775671467262295,
      "2": 0.20205937442576266,
      "3": 0.203778520112245,
      "4": 0.16181771081111088,
      "5": 0.1011770357159645,
      "6": 0.049811096123718375,
      "7": 0.019308942772567242,
      "8": 0.005893579432259169,
      "9": 0.0014164069081362821
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 2 MIN",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1593,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.354,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8584,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5956,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5381,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5956,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.8584,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.004,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1593,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.9,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.421596050262451,
      "home_runs": 4.686009407043457,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only."
    }
  ]
}

20260819_CHW@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHC
Published scoreCHW 3 - 4 CHC
Final confidence51.8%
Calibrationraw 52.2% → blended 51.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.5% · weight 50.0% · n=301
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2965
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.986088275909424-4.448134899139404Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.518288,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.518288,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.521576,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.518288,
    "published_confidence": 0.518288,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5294,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.136,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2965
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026956538288001364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025776994514934728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02502209125534566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024948375753592277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024012943993449037
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04837058400719294,
      "1": 0.08218809755761441,
      "2": 0.11997041591947949,
      "3": 0.1504447514263064,
      "4": 0.162075569970023,
      "5": 0.15000153865786187,
      "6": 0.11926458741771238,
      "7": 0.08146385283755385,
      "8": 0.04780309570130612,
      "9": 0.024098207413132098,
      "10": 0.010436409074590524,
      "11": 0.0038828900172269334
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05312707183714899,
      "1": 0.08988751624540009,
      "2": 0.12954848170771505,
      "3": 0.1590430594796141,
      "4": 0.16632079895191584,
      "5": 0.1481589359697479,
      "6": 0.11242388398955193,
      "7": 0.07266725694647776,
      "8": 0.04000998560827598,
      "9": 0.018764952547007715,
      "10": 0.007496801171159079,
      "11": 0.00255125554598536
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0661,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2965,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5183,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5893,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5183,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2965,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.136,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0661,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.986088275909424,
      "home_runs": 4.448134899139404,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_DET@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPIT
Published scoreDET 2 - 3 PIT
Final confidence53.8%
Calibrationraw 55.4% → blended 53.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 52.1% · weight 50.0% · n=353
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=2
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2616
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.464884281158447-5.362203121185303Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.537802,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.537802,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.554405,
    "sample_size": 353,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5212,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.537802,
    "published_confidence": 0.537802,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.424,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2616
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0324039180066899
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03230040032101058
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02929955493823058
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029284335573109145
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029205954463188837
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.059812414341352406,
      "1": 0.10059985930354344,
      "2": 0.14242884091229416,
      "3": 0.1697434532558084,
      "4": 0.17028745423615624,
      "5": 0.14380262014122344,
      "6": 0.10222225846281835,
      "7": 0.06116720993098957,
      "8": 0.03080962390520652,
      "9": 0.013063172120977346,
      "10": 0.004662355961546031,
      "11": 0.0014007374280841998
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07663593666823736,
      "1": 0.1269965495017708,
      "2": 0.17197001214486038,
      "3": 0.1902895204584587,
      "4": 0.17205938669796356,
      "5": 0.1271285865835636,
      "6": 0.0767554841888951,
      "7": 0.037868400525704206,
      "8": 0.015266724106646362,
      "9": 0.005029399123899927
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "DET 2 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1006,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.04,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2616,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.5378,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5684,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5378,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2616,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1006,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.464884281158447,
      "home_runs": 5.362203121185303,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_LAA@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickHOU
Published scoreLAA 3 - 4 HOU
Final confidence51.8%
Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 51.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.0% · weight 50.0% · n=262
H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.385
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usediagnostic_only_winner_disagreement
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.491813898086548-4.275109767913818Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied3-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Simulation Winner Disagreement3-4Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only.
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.517613,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.517613,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.535225,
    "sample_size": 262,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.517613,
    "published_confidence": 0.517613,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.616,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.385
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03907993991323644
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03718991319911359
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03646390223375813
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034700395189582144
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0337907178467357
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08369668505813153,
      "1": 0.13781402842362878,
      "2": 0.18307598726148205,
      "3": 0.1962104476879455,
      "4": 0.16965460773800825,
      "5": 0.11834828716546741,
      "6": 0.06660565156313446,
      "7": 0.030242171517312816,
      "8": 0.011078160425832003,
      "9": 0.0032739731590571415
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08802976159098358,
      "1": 0.14437842229253195,
      "2": 0.18954094258151175,
      "3": 0.19917359332154147,
      "4": 0.16752840722523407,
      "5": 0.11279066016227268,
      "6": 0.06078351290687906,
      "7": 0.026219622321172222,
      "8": 0.009053052638501261,
      "9": 0.002502024959372119
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.046,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0122,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.385,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5176,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5448,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5176,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.385,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.044,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.046,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 16
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.491813898086548,
      "home_runs": 4.275109767913818,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only."
    }
  ]
}

20260819_LAD@COL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAD
Published scoreLAD 5 - 4 COL
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 69.6% → blended 62.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=227
H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6271
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.503922462463379-5.18113899230957Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.69629,
    "sample_size": 227,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.623495,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.3718,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6271
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030029494126390943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029708188587884987
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028471023387957838
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02816639296484845
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026466153884899597
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08721358123267012,
      "1": 0.14314630077346954,
      "2": 0.18834348537516388,
      "3": 0.19865318891942943,
      "4": 0.16796351074091478,
      "5": 0.1138436497867357,
      "6": 0.06185533198047087,
      "7": 0.026941386238030038,
      "8": 0.009406697939364899,
      "9": 0.002632867013750665
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04007279018349083,
      "1": 0.06859521883865749,
      "2": 0.10237857552344022,
      "3": 0.1332279337113176,
      "4": 0.1511654269923169,
      "5": 0.1495480075073658,
      "6": 0.1289970445254026,
      "7": 0.09701745155622378,
      "8": 0.06361960052473313,
      "9": 0.03637499868290028,
      "10": 0.018133682517086937,
      "11": 0.0078820648296641,
      "12": 0.0029872046074002085
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1313,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.419,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6271,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.677,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6271,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.244,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1313,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.503922462463379,
      "home_runs": 5.18113899230957,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_MIA@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPHI
Published scoreMIA 2 - 3 PHI
Final confidence52.7%
Calibrationraw 55.4% → blended 52.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.0% · weight 50.0% · n=262
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0184
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.111323833465576-4.257678508758545Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.527089,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.527089,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.554178,
    "sample_size": 262,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527089,
    "published_confidence": 0.527089,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0197,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.016,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0184
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032646671521160464
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03150066606229322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030876169478472985
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0297923144597981
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028571509309085003
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06613806884853822,
      "1": 0.11062212792067613,
      "2": 0.15402667829192018,
      "3": 0.17853087515732236,
      "4": 0.17226385472389089,
      "5": 0.13836888180980025,
      "6": 0.0925222412336944,
      "7": 0.05150119432423663,
      "8": 0.02386447581965483,
      "9": 0.009205554246698845,
      "10": 0.0029560476235674345
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06950959136405611,
      "1": 0.11592921690161127,
      "2": 0.16003679634633303,
      "3": 0.1828628885193782,
      "4": 0.17294582492392277,
      "5": 0.13538587889493675,
      "6": 0.08772339579864091,
      "7": 0.047047470785132516,
      "8": 0.020885068661910054,
      "9": 0.007673867804078675
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 3 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1909,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0743,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0184,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5271,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5595,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5271,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0184,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.016,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1909,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.111323833465576,
      "home_runs": 4.257678508758545,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_NYY@BAL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickNYY
Published scoreNYY 4 - 3 BAL
Final confidence52.0%
Calibrationraw 53.9% → blended 52.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.0% · weight 50.0% · n=262
H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6858
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.995598316192627-4.307353973388672Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.519572,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.519572,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539144,
    "sample_size": 262,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.519572,
    "published_confidence": 0.519572,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.04,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6858
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032336442435041426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03133558822959771
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03072269399229348
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02977178736282994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02820787720188094
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06878546233633961,
      "1": 0.11479634189379188,
      "2": 0.15878324023493165,
      "3": 0.18202309485252036,
      "4": 0.17293924196881214,
      "5": 0.13617764854617143,
      "6": 0.08887166837975535,
      "7": 0.04806910749006474,
      "8": 0.02154834929358241,
      "9": 0.008005845004030308
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0654495007379544,
      "1": 0.10953760333705469,
      "2": 0.15279754264466078,
      "3": 0.17765021774429895,
      "4": 0.172151716544467,
      "5": 0.13904430631440637,
      "6": 0.09360333036981044,
      "7": 0.052520110516701,
      "8": 0.024561574333770347,
      "9": 0.009573770417363356,
      "10": 0.003110327039512755
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0484,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.203,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6858,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5196,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.568,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5196,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6858,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0484,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.995598316192627,
      "home_runs": 4.307353973388672,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_OAK@KC

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickKC
Published scoreOAK 4 - 6 KC
Final confidence60.4%
Calibrationraw 64.7% → blended 60.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=189
H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4716
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.346280097961426-5.203712463378906Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.604083,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.604083,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647366,
    "sample_size": 189,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.604083,
    "published_confidence": 0.604083,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6286,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4716
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03277874827716254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03128240055597745
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030809610638186925
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029403153921803683
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029273857051809016
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052809071635598046,
      "1": 0.08937477362718133,
      "2": 0.12891892247833592,
      "3": 0.15849430772628303,
      "4": 0.16607565033337124,
      "5": 0.1483178920237333,
      "6": 0.11289544433658112,
      "7": 0.07324105309846132,
      "8": 0.04049748314415097,
      "9": 0.01908520268944993,
      "10": 0.0076658587030010925,
      "11": 0.002624340203852663
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08531095264099425,
      "1": 0.14026620409149151,
      "2": 0.1855155200436752,
      "3": 0.19737239150570396,
      "4": 0.16891628057071503,
      "5": 0.1162881784943714,
      "6": 0.06439891897377999,
      "7": 0.028688017542871,
      "8": 0.010280197298116845,
      "9": 0.0029633388382809436
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 6 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1955,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.25,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4716,
      "winner": "KC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.6041,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6144,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6041,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4716,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1955,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 12,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.346280097961426,
      "home_runs": 5.203712463378906,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_SD@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickSD
Published scoreSD 5 - 4 NYM
Final confidence56.4%
Calibrationraw 60.5% → blended 56.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 52.2% · weight 50.0% · n=377
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5046
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.71156644821167-4.489081859588623Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.563862,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.563862,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.605223,
    "sample_size": 377,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5225,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.563862,
    "published_confidence": 0.563862,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5157,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.484,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5046
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030916422771953254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029603525666008157
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0287721762777859
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02755033676402702
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.027492677953444893
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07206680645512963,
      "1": 0.1199177018102253,
      "2": 0.16440302392450212,
      "3": 0.18570123464738553,
      "4": 0.17282169731241173,
      "5": 0.13251353090109647,
      "6": 0.08371449685665518,
      "7": 0.04357321466690348,
      "8": 0.018686028943892805,
      "9": 0.0066022644817978725
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053343718288260795,
      "1": 0.09023667098094992,
      "2": 0.12997650413637396,
      "3": 0.15941480261141033,
      "4": 0.16648474540655686,
      "5": 0.14804790073500979,
      "6": 0.11210166620436784,
      "7": 0.07227762750863889,
      "8": 0.0396805530131149,
      "9": 0.018549557350386207,
      "10": 0.007383654922028025,
      "11": 0.0025025988429025503
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0408,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.414,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5046,
      "winner": "SD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5639,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5961,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5639,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5046,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.484,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0408,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.71156644821167,
      "home_runs": 4.489081859588623,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_SEA@MIL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickMIL
Published scoreSEA 2 - 4 MIL
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 72.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.3% · weight 50.0% · n=582
H2H base featurehome net 22.0 · absolute 22.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.54
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.192749977111816-4.3997344970703125Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-6Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 582,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5326,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7263,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 22.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 22.0,
    "home_average_margin": 22.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1833,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1833,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 22.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.8373,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.988,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.54
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03396625827419447
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03272368073185403
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.0326299919562853
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03179215420888077
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.03143629864793425
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022188484900595332,
      "1": 0.038626002934511974,
      "2": 0.06063432929888595,
      "3": 0.08583098071811708,
      "4": 0.10956106865315426,
      "5": 0.12611162810542437,
      "6": 0.1309003154843246,
      "7": 0.1225216796702782,
      "8": 0.10341222411218179,
      "9": 0.07870775106861047,
      "10": 0.05401940745577638,
      "11": 0.03343249718377962,
      "12": 0.018658404555440614,
      "13": 0.009390027883362784,
      "14": 0.004261337642788834,
      "15": 0.0017438603327679127
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.16646397711400307,
      "1": 0.24927359292875623,
      "2": 0.2594818671637346,
      "3": 0.18776406936572637,
      "4": 0.09444798515582123,
      "5": 0.03302536605371038,
      "6": 0.008027444586556635,
      "7": 0.0013563810900441046,
      "8": 0.00015931654164723155
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0262,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.338,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.54,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6395,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.54,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.988,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0262,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.192749977111816,
      "home_runs": 4.3997344970703125,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_SF@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCLE
Published scoreSF 2 - 3 CLE
Final confidence64.0%
Calibrationraw 75.2% → blended 65.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=257
H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4366
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.555846214294434-5.140533447265625Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.64,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.64,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.752243,
    "sample_size": 257,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5525,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.652372,
    "published_confidence": 0.64,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 7.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0583,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0583,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4563,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.4,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4366
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030625452868942575
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02970299220709483
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02879035683563931
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027923170585852645
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027410841734186314
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04260354866274189,
      "1": 0.07276680712557693,
      "2": 0.10788930558685432,
      "3": 0.13886123095478237,
      "4": 0.15514620547479066,
      "5": 0.15047309020698096,
      "6": 0.1266875846521142,
      "7": 0.09259058049012867,
      "8": 0.058743131179377656,
      "9": 0.03235228140288407,
      "10": 0.015467148862161429,
      "11": 0.006419085401607025
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08534674840805517,
      "1": 0.1403204909881463,
      "2": 0.18556919743884673,
      "3": 0.19739736963092425,
      "4": 0.16889916831668403,
      "5": 0.11624233863033497,
      "6": 0.06435048795914641,
      "7": 0.028654314817798156,
      "8": 0.010263107777498654,
      "9": 0.0029567760325651445
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SF 2 - 3 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1465,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.75,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4366,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.64,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5896,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.64,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4366,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.4,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1465,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.555846214294434,
      "home_runs": 5.140533447265625,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_STL@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickSTL
Published scoreSTL 4 - 3 CIN
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 70.5% → blended 63.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=261
H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8572
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.458285808563232-5.621164321899414Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-6Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 3 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.704834,
    "sample_size": 261,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5594,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.632117,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8385,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.892,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8572
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029310959864213223
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02881082641637229
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026762273060910485
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026305627902921118
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02612500549696768
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07890810431824938,
      "1": 0.13049384873237516,
      "2": 0.1756215383043185,
      "3": 0.19234673560102059,
      "4": 0.1714396098994944,
      "5": 0.12435316006789927,
      "6": 0.07340434856173794,
      "7": 0.03526192830361793,
      "8": 0.013785090888092407,
      "9": 0.004385635323194554
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04086246073640771,
      "1": 0.06989681602495214,
      "2": 0.10409706127881725,
      "3": 0.1349794782820296,
      "4": 0.1523860530963838,
      "5": 0.14978588706664497,
      "6": 0.1281872322034798,
      "7": 0.09551395855827996,
      "8": 0.061963668030696986,
      "9": 0.034998996473649444,
      "10": 0.017211640446935756,
      "11": 0.007369484973923635,
      "12": 0.00274726282779882
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.2336,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.9875,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8572,
      "winner": "STL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5923,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8572,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.892,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.2336,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.458285808563232,
      "home_runs": 5.621164321899414,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_TOR@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickTB
Published scoreTOR 4 - 6 TB
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 57.5% → blended 53.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.0% · weight 50.0% · n=262
H2H base featurehome net 11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5996
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.516140460968018-4.913016319274902Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.574593,
    "sample_size": 262,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.537297,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9612,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.072,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5996
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032646671521160464
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03150066606229322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030876169478472985
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0297923144597981
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02857150930908501
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06613806884853822,
      "1": 0.11062212792067613,
      "2": 0.15402667829192018,
      "3": 0.17853087515732236,
      "4": 0.17226385472389089,
      "5": 0.13836888180980025,
      "6": 0.0925222412336944,
      "7": 0.05150119432423663,
      "8": 0.02386447581965483,
      "9": 0.009205554246698845,
      "10": 0.0029560476235674345
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06950959136405611,
      "1": 0.1159292169016113,
      "2": 0.16003679634633305,
      "3": 0.1828628885193782,
      "4": 0.17294582492392277,
      "5": 0.1353858788949367,
      "6": 0.08772339579864086,
      "7": 0.04704747078513246,
      "8": 0.020885068661910026,
      "9": 0.007673867804078661
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0217,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0871,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 3,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5996,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.613,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5996,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.072,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0217,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.516140460968018,
      "home_runs": 4.913016319274902,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260819_WAS@TEX

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickTEX
Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 TEX
Final confidence55.7%
Calibrationraw 59.6% → blended 55.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.7% · weight 50.0% · n=348
H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3999
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.9667928218841553-4.750080108642578Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.556563,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.556563,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.595925,
    "sample_size": 348,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5172,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.556563,
    "published_confidence": 0.556563,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 5.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0417,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0417,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5011,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3999
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02869694811058026
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02839572649324956
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02731410236656942
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027027395987232833
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025716402071960853
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052381841400927116,
      "1": 0.08868545443669748,
      "2": 0.12807068880438516,
      "3": 0.15775125026270997,
      "4": 0.1657378076135813,
      "5": 0.1485238110579686,
      "6": 0.11352625051188585,
      "7": 0.0740154219703421,
      "8": 0.04115985721890626,
      "9": 0.019523209504976075,
      "10": 0.007898675734626031,
      "11": 0.002725731482993989
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06209993641865644,
      "1": 0.10424230433993786,
      "2": 0.14671853850122496,
      "3": 0.17314666172903267,
      "4": 0.17132920304734792,
      "5": 0.14214670862323464,
      "6": 0.09888498750769877,
      "7": 0.05767824790347119,
      "8": 0.028208623676781085,
      "9": 0.011567509804243028,
      "10": 0.003977278448371406
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0353,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.138,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3999,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5566,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5566,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3999,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.212,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0353,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9667928218841553,
      "home_runs": 4.750080108642578,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081920260819_ARI@BOSBOS55.8%58.7%53.0%50.0%4.0-5.07-6missSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.586867,
    "sample_size": 302,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5298,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.558333,
    "published_confidence": 0.558333,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 7.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1125,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7683,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5624
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03542756548316104
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03477593386996129
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03467396828564807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034036197849495665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030192406922344307
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06338463160250386,
      "1": 0.10627710280584063,
      "2": 0.14906969450930624,
      "3": 0.17491736837565114,
      "4": 0.17170005199004018,
      "5": 0.14099439135541747,
      "6": 0.09685614200021249,
      "7": 0.05566041161866081,
      "8": 0.026758365391615496,
      "9": 0.01076134772037064,
      "10": 0.0036204926303809795
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09415640560885323,
      "1": 0.15356224229098298,
      "2": 0.19823056228002775,
      "3": 0.20253886627814502,
      "4": 0.16379390252048978,
      "5": 0.10484281670831244,
      "6": 0.05311671691111075,
      "7": 0.021299791958405482,
      "8": 0.006760379765698714,
      "9": 0.001698315677973858
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 5 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1331,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.53,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5624,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081920260819_ATL@MINMIN59.6%64.7%54.4%50.0%3.0-4.04-6hitSimulation Result (-4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.647047,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5442,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.595624,
    "published_confidence": 0.595624,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0375,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0375,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3228,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8584
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03367253676773579
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.033388463665696935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03192880980208734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03165944738049581
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030322462273617738
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05177476584466236,
      "1": 0.08770506639152807,
      "2": 0.12686059455055818,
      "3": 0.1566838829946373,
      "4": 0.1652408543804731,
      "5": 0.14880107214889754,
      "6": 0.11441690915293232,
      "7": 0.07512247457213604,
      "8": 0.042115802628290275,
      "9": 0.020161173206310064,
      "10": 0.008241040382363079,
      "11": 0.002876363747211834
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09698061902561292,
      "1": 0.15775671467262295,
      "2": 0.20205937442576266,
      "3": 0.203778520112245,
      "4": 0.16181771081111088,
      "5": 0.1011770357159645,
      "6": 0.049811096123718375,
      "7": 0.019308942772567242,
      "8": 0.005893579432259169,
      "9": 0.0014164069081362821
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 2 MIN",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1593,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.354,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8584,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081920260819_CHW@CHCCHC51.8%52.2%51.5%50.0%3.0-4.03-0missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.521576,
    "sample_size": 301,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.518288,
    "published_confidence": 0.518288,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5294,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.136,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2965
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026956538288001364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025776994514934728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02502209125534566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024948375753592277
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024012943993449037
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04837058400719294,
      "1": 0.08218809755761441,
      "2": 0.11997041591947949,
      "3": 0.1504447514263064,
      "4": 0.162075569970023,
      "5": 0.15000153865786187,
      "6": 0.11926458741771238,
      "7": 0.08146385283755385,
      "8": 0.04780309570130612,
      "9": 0.024098207413132098,
      "10": 0.010436409074590524,
      "11": 0.0038828900172269334
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05312707183714899,
      "1": 0.08988751624540009,
      "2": 0.12954848170771505,
      "3": 0.1590430594796141,
      "4": 0.16632079895191584,
      "5": 0.1481589359697479,
      "6": 0.11242388398955193,
      "7": 0.07266725694647776,
      "8": 0.04000998560827598,
      "9": 0.018764952547007715,
      "10": 0.007496801171159079,
      "11": 0.00255125554598536
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0661,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.066,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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Signals
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2026081920260819_LAA@HOUHOU51.8%53.5%50.0%50.0%3.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (-2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_LAD@COLLAD56.0%69.6%55.1%50.0%5.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_MIA@PHIPHI52.7%55.4%50.0%50.0%2.0-3.01-4hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_NYY@BALNYY52.0%53.9%50.0%50.0%4.0-3.0Official result pendingpending_actualEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_OAK@KCKC60.4%64.7%56.1%50.0%4.0-6.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_SD@NYMSD56.4%60.5%52.2%50.0%5.0-4.02-4missVariance Applied (0.7775)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_SEA@MILMIL66.0%92.0%53.3%50.0%2.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081920260819_SF@CLECLE64.0%75.2%55.2%50.0%2.0-3.01-0missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_STL@CINSTL56.0%70.5%55.9%50.0%4.0-3.04-5missEnhanced Prediction (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_TOR@TBTB53.0%57.5%50.0%50.0%4.0-6.06-7hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081920260819_WAS@TEXTEX55.7%59.6%51.7%50.0%3.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualVariance Applied (0.2167)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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