Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260818 · dates 20260818 · generated 2026-08-19T01:43:15.271874+00:00

2-3
Winner picks · 40.0%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20260818155102315Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 13formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored13
available games: 9
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X13
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1013
configured window: 10last 10 games: 13observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 5metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4668.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55351.0%0.0%51.0%overconfident
0.55-0.60156.0%100.0%-44.0%underconfident
0.60-0.65163.6%100.0%-36.4%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml52.63714.15553.611340.0%0.00.0
variance_applied52.74.23.840.0%0.06290.1887
enhanced_prediction52.73.04.240.0%0.06290.5887
embedded_savant_run_environment52.83.24.040.0%0.16290.3887
fundamental_edge_target_review52.83.24.040.0%0.16290.3887
capped_target52.83.24.040.0%0.16290.3887
simulation_result53.13.84.640.0%0.46290.9887
published_final53.03.64.040.0%0.36290.3887
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_result",
  "games": 5,
  "team_run_mae": 3.1,
  "total_run_mae": 3.8,
  "margin_mae": 4.6,
  "winner_hits": 2,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4629,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.9887
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=3

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction4.03
simulation_result3.03
variance_applied0.68183
embedded_savant_run_environment0.03
fundamental_edge_target_review0.03
capped_target0.03
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6818,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 3
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction2.02
embedded_savant_run_environment1.02
fundamental_edge_target_review0.02
capped_target0.02
simulation_result0.02
variance_applied-0.26162
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 2
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2616,
      "games": 2
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=5

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)3030.0
[0.525, 0.550)000
[0.550, 0.600)1101.0
[0.600, 1.010)1101.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260818150.55746.93330.4
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260818",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5574,
      "mean_predicted_total": 6.9333,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=5

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v15230.4
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260818_ARI@BOS

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickBOS
Published scoreARI 3 - 6 BOS
Final confidence58.5%
Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 58.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=252
H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3654
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.463415622711182-5.412070274353027Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.58505,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 3 - 6 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.58505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6225,
    "sample_size": 252,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58505,
    "published_confidence": 0.58505,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 10.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0833,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0833,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6828,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3654
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0267876902777081
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026055698977538202
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02538946409570588
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024695680247924928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02421870227269306
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03535193897239034,
      "1": 0.0607734015679258,
      "2": 0.09187490646035504,
      "3": 0.12214152368979729,
      "4": 0.14279493909779464,
      "5": 0.14680652417244505,
      "6": 0.13272751266577515,
      "7": 0.10552603338379336,
      "8": 0.07378045521386392,
      "9": 0.04536345307572935,
      "10": 0.024527537008322376,
      "11": 0.011662316736685406,
      "12": 0.004876393946291573,
      "13": 0.0017930640088306433
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06916852673513864,
      "1": 0.11539582234527271,
      "2": 0.1594473168696244,
      "3": 0.18246934479725277,
      "4": 0.17294506656858355,
      "5": 0.13576005684852058,
      "6": 0.08826355439020171,
      "7": 0.04752656012578906,
      "8": 0.021195170753299675,
      "9": 0.007828580566316985
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0035,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.126,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3654,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.585,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6175,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.585,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3654,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0035,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 19,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.463415622711182,
      "home_runs": 5.412070274353027,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_ATL@MIN

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickATL
Published scoreATL 6 - 4 MIN
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 89.2% → blended 74.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 44.5% · n=89
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.042
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.904372692108154-4.656849384307861Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment6-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review6-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target6-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 6 - 2 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.891985,
    "sample_size": 89,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5618,
    "empirical_weight": 0.445,
    "blended_confidence": 0.745053,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.448,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.288,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.042
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.03366566857335121
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0321448696928262
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.031133877840475343
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.029984486204456127
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028629979521973353
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12321477312162346,
      "1": 0.19551121596771626,
      "2": 0.2324239128427881,
      "3": 0.20700945216744765,
      "4": 0.13813374305850087,
      "5": 0.06905730419899021,
      "6": 0.025865429694024188,
      "7": 0.00725821804635115,
      "8": 0.001525950902557969
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03313084851777486,
      "1": 0.05707245250804325,
      "2": 0.08681422874470157,
      "3": 0.11660728580331398,
      "4": 0.1383027645463014,
      "5": 0.14484597630934268,
      "6": 0.13395298900046634,
      "7": 0.1093877732190916,
      "8": 0.0788779388777909,
      "9": 0.050224165012982894,
      "10": 0.028238413677600712,
      "11": 0.014019685339640387,
      "12": 0.006146199259524587,
      "13": 0.002379279183424905
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "ATL 6 - 2 MIN",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 6 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1515,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.288,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.042,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6704,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.042,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.288,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1515,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.904372692108154,
      "home_runs": 4.656849384307861,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_CHW@CHC

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickCHW
Published scoreCHW 3 - 2 CHC
Final confidence57.0%
Calibrationraw 70.0% → blended 62.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2774
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.9435760974884033-3.7012412548065186Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 3 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.70011,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5531,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.626605,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4892,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.116,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2774
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030798937900121625
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.030022759165211323
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029408494681812964
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02866735717013092
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027457859254899238
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08876921769076335,
      "1": 0.1454929678877375,
      "2": 0.1906177245146916,
      "3": 0.19963019268786852,
      "4": 0.16712092790213054,
      "5": 0.11183483927014296,
      "6": 0.05982256975757589,
      "7": 0.025579654776305596,
      "8": 0.008743110360645715,
      "9": 0.00238879515213833
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04198634136607838,
      "1": 0.07175294119158285,
      "2": 0.1065656356475836,
      "3": 0.13754361945555466,
      "4": 0.15427995878497827,
      "5": 0.15039187590302716,
      "6": 0.1274045785633011,
      "7": 0.09379754929681017,
      "8": 0.06001277983725107,
      "9": 0.03336889254781947,
      "10": 0.016124477091843628,
      "11": 0.006771350314169887
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 3 CHC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 1 CHC",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.148,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2327,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2774,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.57,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5279,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2774,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.116,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.148,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9435760974884033,
      "home_runs": 3.7012412548065186,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_DET@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickDET
Published scoreDET 3 - 2 PIT
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.770279407501221-4.233245372772217Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 2 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 2 PIT",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "DET 3 - 1 PIT",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.518,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.770279407501221,
      "home_runs": 4.233245372772217,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_LAA@HOU

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickHOU
Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 HOU
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 56.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 52.5% · weight 50.0% · n=295
H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3962
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.297586917877197-4.474278926849365Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609873,
    "sample_size": 295,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5254,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.567637,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.616,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.012,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3962
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032608935575335944
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031807021755255745
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029961703450488455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029224889946883506
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028809205542536284
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0563172167820775,
      "1": 0.09501529238903678,
      "2": 0.1357791018947091,
      "3": 0.1643461184948998,
      "4": 0.1684895879687691,
      "5": 0.14630992314703156,
      "6": 0.10761222059981633,
      "7": 0.06704038526477052,
      "8": 0.03537516764652584,
      "9": 0.01581057297733784,
      "10": 0.005985270855829843,
      "11": 0.0019191419791960186
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08030208163710693,
      "1": 0.13263185669360295,
      "2": 0.17782525206270966,
      "3": 0.1935367993266164,
      "4": 0.1709850791959697,
      "5": 0.12262454560698152,
      "6": 0.07138733118218847,
      "7": 0.033735676157457706,
      "8": 0.012941428874400265,
      "9": 0.004029949262966431
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0814,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.058,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3962,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5538,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3962,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.012,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0814,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.297586917877197,
      "home_runs": 4.474278926849365,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_LAD@COL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAD
Published scoreLAD 6 - 4 COL
Final confidence52.7%
Calibrationraw 54.9% → blended 52.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.6% · weight 50.0% · n=249
H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.4906
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml6.348628997802734-5.098505973815918Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result8-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.527357,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
    "confidence": 0.527357,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.548714,
    "sample_size": 249,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.506,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527357,
    "published_confidence": 0.527357,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.4906
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03263791470366858
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.031496058465314454
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03087189186153673
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02979182094916538
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02856119914547072
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06948901424742278,
      "1": 0.11589704569585527,
      "2": 0.16000127955583038,
      "3": 0.18283924593023096,
      "4": 0.17294589680904288,
      "5": 0.13540851629601441,
      "6": 0.0877559499329591,
      "7": 0.04707626939694471,
      "8": 0.020903662397409234,
      "9": 0.00768311973829042
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06611850778548373,
      "1": 0.11059133740951346,
      "2": 0.15399185698402504,
      "3": 0.17850606710619873,
      "4": 0.17226092956723818,
      "5": 0.13838823511014656,
      "6": 0.09255292198709905,
      "7": 0.051529944832130484,
      "8": 0.02388404055909344,
      "9": 0.009215830997473487,
      "10": 0.0029603276615977657
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 8 - 2 COL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0602,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.16,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 3,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 6,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5274,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6189,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5274,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.02,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0602,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.348628997802734,
      "home_runs": 5.098505973815918,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_MIA@PHI

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickPHI
Published scoreMIA 2 - 4 PHI
Final confidence54.0%
Calibrationraw 56.1% → blended 54.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.9% · weight 50.0% · n=337
H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0631
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.739938259124756-5.060879230499268Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.540125,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.540125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.560949,
    "sample_size": 337,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5193,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.540125,
    "published_confidence": 0.540125,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0238,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.136,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0631
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03250945122096702
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032174625497562614
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029871728295102224
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02956406936331144
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02904401297833751
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062067973543213764,
      "1": 0.1041916184132173,
      "2": 0.14665973068523058,
      "3": 0.17310191156108812,
      "4": 0.17131907701346138,
      "5": 0.14217474880202177,
      "6": 0.09893548674051061,
      "7": 0.05772907534327144,
      "8": 0.028245546991435493,
      "9": 0.011588260759437898,
      "10": 0.003986570147111646
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07408696652365125,
      "1": 0.1230550490384958,
      "2": 0.16778562822564672,
      "3": 0.1878052699001787,
      "4": 0.17256729302241364,
      "5": 0.1301687979419573,
      "6": 0.08060333249229423,
      "7": 0.04097290879846739,
      "8": 0.017097723596592337,
      "9": 0.005857030460302677
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIA 2 - 4 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1996,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1042,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0631,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5401,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.626,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5401,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0631,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.136,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1996,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.9,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.739938259124756,
      "home_runs": 5.060879230499268,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_NYY@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickBAL
Published scoreNYY 1 - 3 BAL
Final confidence51.0%
Empirical signalNo verified historical bucket · weight — · n=0
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.0853800773620605-3.231905460357666Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction1-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment1-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review1-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target1-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 1 - 3 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 1 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "NYY 1 - 3 BAL",
      "winner": "BAL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "model_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner": "BAL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner": "BAL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BAL",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.511,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "fallback_enhanced",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
    "fallback": true
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.0853800773620605,
      "home_runs": 3.231905460357666,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_OAK@KC

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickKC
Published scoreOAK 3 - 4 KC
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 67.1% → blended 61.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=253
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4582
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.088949680328369-4.575529098510742Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 KC",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.670692,
    "sample_size": 253,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5494,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.610046,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6058,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.184,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4582
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027657089626845592
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027339134001475935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025584824198966075
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02529069206547294
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.024590309670910596
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03730661561495616,
      "1": 0.06401874836707676,
      "2": 0.09626171719979147,
      "3": 0.12683091619599285,
      "4": 0.14642719867808338,
      "5": 0.14813015501621404,
      "6": 0.13130773196252143,
      "7": 0.10199108732962185,
      "8": 0.06941594541328189,
      "9": 0.041398190935105744,
      "10": 0.021633589406747075,
      "11": 0.00990605880070599,
      "12": 0.003974644765085489,
      "13": 0.001397400314815993
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07301902085375306,
      "1": 0.12139799732880499,
      "2": 0.16600475216014585,
      "3": 0.18670803135133626,
      "4": 0.17271854063857295,
      "5": 0.13141604740288332,
      "6": 0.08224155677937625,
      "7": 0.04233189647809729,
      "8": 0.017921634216214136,
      "9": 0.006240522790816067
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "OAK 3 - 4 KC",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0855,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.184,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4582,
      "winner": "KC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.604,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4582,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.184,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0855,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.088949680328369,
      "home_runs": 4.575529098510742,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_SD@NYM

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickSD
Published scoreSD 2 - 1 NYM
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=254
H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.344
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.835238933563232-4.654824733734131Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 3 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 254,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5039,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.507,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0562,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0562,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4603,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.128,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.344
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.039328602435503686
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.037592345973623445
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03684709891164141
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.035220394436398635
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03381055517981495
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08899803294148423,
      "1": 0.1458375119115514,
      "2": 0.19094936039384516,
      "3": 0.19976863070776318,
      "4": 0.16699232092926863,
      "5": 0.11153876509552905,
      "6": 0.05952717685934321,
      "7": 0.025384280818705182,
      "8": 0.008649172606966078,
      "9": 0.0023547477355439946
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08460213134758383,
      "1": 0.13919042741445486,
      "2": 0.18444887358488313,
      "3": 0.19687076142117915,
      "4": 0.16924857050892844,
      "5": 0.1171945382544816,
      "6": 0.06536244808726818,
      "7": 0.02936214792218722,
      "8": 0.010623947337920889,
      "9": 0.003096154121112715
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 3 NYM",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "SD 2 - 1 NYM",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0478,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.047,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -4,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.344,
      "winner": "SD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5494,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.344,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.128,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0478,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 3,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.835238933563232,
      "home_runs": 4.654824733734131,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_SEA@MIL

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickMIL
Published scoreSEA 2 - 4 MIL
Final confidence61.2%
Calibrationraw 67.4% → blended 61.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=249
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.1086
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.70609188079834-3.577566146850586Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.612254,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.612254,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.674308,
    "sample_size": 249,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.612254,
    "published_confidence": 0.612254,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.488,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.404,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.1086
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03393140132343439
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03347152057620943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031629685286813126
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031233631170555318
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03120100027125664
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04904404603365895,
      "1": 0.0832821535067614,
      "2": 0.12134764670053205,
      "3": 0.1517136045797999,
      "4": 0.1627539179268483,
      "5": 0.1498139082331154,
      "6": 0.11832774061316592,
      "7": 0.08019268726798819,
      "8": 0.04663336112086908,
      "9": 0.02326871641626747,
      "10": 0.009962352205360254,
      "11": 0.0036598653956330597
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10184996739270843,
      "1": 0.16494632546047644,
      "2": 0.20848285408825162,
      "3": 0.20565723395521338,
      "4": 0.1583301359661199,
      "5": 0.09513254756914387,
      "6": 0.04461086220229523,
      "7": 0.016326686548401085,
      "8": 0.004663386817390272
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2659,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.404,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1086,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.6123,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.62,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6123,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1086,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.404,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.2659,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.70609188079834,
      "home_runs": 3.577566146850586,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_SF@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreSF 3 - 4 CLE
Final confidence63.6%
Calibrationraw 72.5% → blended 63.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=252
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.259
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.9179489612579346-5.203323841094971Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.636129,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.636129,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.724659,
    "sample_size": 252,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.636129,
    "published_confidence": 0.636129,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.336,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.116,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.259
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033050731442950204
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03300115381602651
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030671767771582713
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03062575870027685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030614213811324037
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04803393777264013,
      "1": 0.081640724844164,
      "2": 0.11927935459959861,
      "3": 0.14980402315929361,
      "4": 0.1617265943533689,
      "5": 0.1500856509955868,
      "6": 0.11972826060715003,
      "7": 0.08210203861089682,
      "8": 0.048396168081360734,
      "9": 0.024522671455907637,
      "10": 0.010681305847937883,
      "11": 0.003999269672094809
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09848624742682163,
      "1": 0.1599826925375713,
      "2": 0.2040552077904995,
      "3": 0.20436175988925553,
      "4": 0.16070480218020633,
      "5": 0.0992282528605435,
      "6": 0.04810819962648444,
      "7": 0.018313870283430747,
      "8": 0.005474171921580875,
      "9": 0.0012847954836060697
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0862,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.116,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.259,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.6361,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5843,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6361,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.259,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.116,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0862,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.9179489612579346,
      "home_runs": 5.203323841094971,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_STL@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSTL
Published scoreSTL 6 - 3 CIN
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 73.6% → blended 64.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=227
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7807
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.558321952819824-4.582134246826172Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment6-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review6-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target6-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 6 - 3 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.735561,
    "sample_size": 227,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643131,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7855,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.772,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7807
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02902980753772768
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02901809748392512
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026897762279452498
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026886912250803443
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.025384433541317555
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08215447646271203,
      "1": 0.1354639874235352,
      "2": 0.18071082522800241,
      "3": 0.19503482936052016,
      "4": 0.17029734283879908,
      "5": 0.12030156030245383,
      "6": 0.06875469186526381,
      "7": 0.03179077471318734,
      "8": 0.011892347040740296,
      "9": 0.0035991647647857865
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03866667812168129,
      "1": 0.06627041487731783,
      "2": 0.0992774502121563,
      "3": 0.12999589493518104,
      "4": 0.14878418167190754,
      "5": 0.14884422250584964,
      "6": 0.13015333530194576,
      "7": 0.09947792561138451,
      "8": 0.0664578424537844,
      "9": 0.03880733806827489,
      "10": 0.019807495632287897,
      "11": 0.008836766559814009,
      "12": 0.0034459208254369058,
      "13": 0.0011745332229781023
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0252,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.842,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7807,
      "winner": "STL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.595,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7807,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.772,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0252,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 17,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.558321952819824,
      "home_runs": 4.582134246826172,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_TOR@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickTB
Published scoreTOR 2 - 3 TB
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 50.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 50.4% · weight 50.0% · n=254
H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7442
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.085259914398193-4.719971179962158Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 254,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5039,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.507,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0609,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.156,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7442
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.038134239224184165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03572910464405989
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      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03364946684913411
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      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03285728662086097
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08049533603486138,
      "1": 0.1329278029193392,
      "2": 0.1781285774173512,
      "3": 0.1936975093555457,
      "4": 0.17091773829555718,
      "5": 0.12238350927015924,
      "6": 0.07111010681865856,
      "7": 0.03352836871778373,
      "8": 0.012828213542242952,
      "9": 0.003982837628500832
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08460834529894389,
      "1": 0.1391998649077969,
      "2": 0.18445825536391672,
      "3": 0.19687521719335083,
      "4": 0.16924571208826736,
      "5": 0.11718660413371218,
      "6": 0.06535396404683583,
      "7": 0.029356181966835662,
      "8": 0.010620889192835057,
      "9": 0.0030949658075057618
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 1 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0831,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.366,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7442,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6157,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7442,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.156,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0831,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.085259914398193,
      "home_runs": 4.719971179962158,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260818_WAS@TEX

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickWAS
Published scoreWAS 5 - 4 TEX
Final confidence52.0%
Calibrationraw 53.0% → blended 52.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.0% · weight 50.0% · n=247
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4293
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.919144630432129-5.2930498123168945Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.52006,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.52006,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.53002,
    "sample_size": 247,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5101,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52006,
    "published_confidence": 0.52006,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5011,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.296,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4293
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03264762310895531
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03136863492269818
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03102234309006063
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02980702612227441
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028476706197809495
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06681622638929301,
      "1": 0.1116889083132098,
      "2": 0.15523040757849166,
      "3": 0.17938337859373243,
      "4": 0.17235593830300755,
      "5": 0.1376920774805633,
      "6": 0.09145981192432584,
      "7": 0.0505115046161628,
      "8": 0.02319471051010208,
      "9": 0.008855768552961423,
      "10": 0.0028112677381501965
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06876501971228849,
      "1": 0.11476433805792903,
      "2": 0.15874774140754452,
      "3": 0.18199915379504397,
      "4": 0.17293878247393282,
      "5": 0.13619985343065463,
      "6": 0.08890416308751395,
      "7": 0.0480981940905127,
      "8": 0.021567343619655885,
      "9": 0.00801541032492399
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 2 TEX",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1594,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.296,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4293,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5201,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5642,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5201,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4293,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.296,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1594,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.919144630432129,
      "home_runs": 5.2930498123168945,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081820260818_ARI@BOSBOS58.5%62.3%54.8%50.0%3.0-6.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6225,
    "sample_size": 252,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58505,
    "published_confidence": 0.58505,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": 10.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0833,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0833,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6828,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3654
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0267876902777081
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026055698977538202
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02538946409570588
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024695680247924928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02421870227269306
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03535193897239034,
      "1": 0.0607734015679258,
      "2": 0.09187490646035504,
      "3": 0.12214152368979729,
      "4": 0.14279493909779464,
      "5": 0.14680652417244505,
      "6": 0.13272751266577515,
      "7": 0.10552603338379336,
      "8": 0.07378045521386392,
      "9": 0.04536345307572935,
      "10": 0.024527537008322376,
      "11": 0.011662316736685406,
      "12": 0.004876393946291573,
      "13": 0.0017930640088306433
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06916852673513864,
      "1": 0.11539582234527271,
      "2": 0.1594473168696244,
      "3": 0.18246934479725277,
      "4": 0.17294506656858355,
      "5": 0.13576005684852058,
      "6": 0.08826355439020171,
      "7": 0.04752656012578906,
      "8": 0.021195170753299675,
      "9": 0.007828580566316985
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
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2026081820260818_ATL@MINATL66.0%89.2%56.2%44.5%6.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_CHW@CHCCHW57.0%70.0%55.3%50.0%3.0-2.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_DET@PITDET51.0%———3.0-2.01-4missSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_LAA@HOUHOU53.0%61.0%52.5%50.0%4.0-5.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_LAD@COLLAD52.7%54.9%50.6%50.0%6.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_MIA@PHIPHI54.0%56.1%51.9%50.0%2.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEmbedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_NYY@BALBAL51.0%———1.0-3.03-1missEnhanced Prediction (4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_OAK@KCKC58.0%67.1%54.9%50.0%3.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081820260818_SD@NYMSD51.0%51.0%50.4%50.0%2.0-1.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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2026081820260818_SEA@MILMIL61.2%67.4%55.0%50.0%2.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_SF@CLECLE63.6%72.5%54.8%50.0%3.0-4.01-8hitVariance Applied (-0.2854)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_STL@CINSTL56.0%73.6%55.1%50.0%6.0-3.03-0hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_TOR@TBTB51.0%51.0%50.4%50.0%2.0-3.010-5missSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081820260818_WAS@TEXWAS52.0%53.0%51.0%50.0%5.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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