Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260815 · dates 20260815 · generated 2026-08-16T02:44:33.133872+00:00

5-8
Winner picks · 38.5%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20260815151325815Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored15
available games: 15
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X15
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 1published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1015
configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 13metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2271.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55752.2%42.9%9.3%overconfident
0.55-0.60456.2%25.0%31.2%overconfident
0.60-0.65161.1%100.0%-38.9%underconfident
0.65-0.70166.0%0.0%66.0%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml132.09142.68013.975153.8%0.00.0
variance_applied132.02.61543.846246.2%-0.0914-0.1289
enhanced_prediction132.53853.07694.461538.5%0.44710.4864
embedded_savant_run_environment132.57692.84624.538538.5%0.48550.5634
fundamental_edge_target_review132.57692.84624.538538.5%0.48550.5634
capped_target132.57692.84624.538538.5%0.48550.5634
simulation_result133.07693.23085.076930.8%0.98551.1018
published_final132.92313.53854.769238.5%0.83170.7941
simulation_winner_disagreement11.02.00.0100.0%-1.0914-3.9751
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_result",
  "games": 13,
  "team_run_mae": 3.0769,
  "total_run_mae": 3.2308,
  "margin_mae": 5.0769,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.3077,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.9855,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 1.1018
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=8

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction10.08
simulation_result7.08
embedded_savant_run_environment2.08
fundamental_edge_target_review0.08
capped_target0.08
variance_applied-0.01738
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 8,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 10.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 8
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0173,
      "games": 8
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_winner_disagreement4.01
enhanced_prediction2.05
variance_applied1.65955
embedded_savant_run_environment1.05
fundamental_edge_target_review0.05
capped_target0.05
simulation_result0.05
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.6595,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=13

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)4220.5
[0.525, 0.550)3120.3333
[0.550, 0.600)4130.25
[0.600, 1.010)2110.5
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.25
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.25
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260815150.55157.20.3846
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260815",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5515,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.2,
      "accuracy": 0.3846
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=13

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v113580.3846
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 13,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 13,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 8,
      "accuracy": 0.3846
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260815_ARI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickATL
Published scoreARI 2 - 3 ATL
Final confidence51.4%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6788
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.695466041564941-4.359866142272949Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.5139,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5139,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9431,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6788
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03754745248837321
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03486875893722575
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034245056677966346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03351757482479744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032681241524622075
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07866574231063067,
      "1": 0.13012153686206065,
      "2": 0.1752355625462282,
      "3": 0.1921342697969975,
      "4": 0.17151296126742094,
      "5": 0.12465180756755623,
      "6": 0.07375810323366484,
      "7": 0.03553288114549986,
      "8": 0.01393672179227966,
      "9": 0.004450413477661396
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08265439179454698,
      "1": 0.1362265485130956,
      "2": 0.1814812056905147,
      "3": 0.19542298481184314,
      "4": 0.17009584786280946,
      "5": 0.1196701585070558,
      "6": 0.06805375667536541,
      "7": 0.03128184972604394,
      "8": 0.011622694714436926,
      "9": 0.003490561704288044
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0044,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.118,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6788,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5139,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5594,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5139,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6788,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.188,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0044,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.695466041564941,
      "home_runs": 4.359866142272949,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_BAL@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickTB
Published scoreBAL 3 - 6 TB
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 74.1% → blended 64.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=178
H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9441
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.7801685333251953-4.669975757598877Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.741034,
    "sample_size": 178,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5449,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.642967,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.983,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.872,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9441
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026629810264413915
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025320297785322625
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024855900961558215
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02446343234721141
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023795097010013814
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030444069153833592,
      "1": 0.0525766079942723,
      "2": 0.08058321729671263,
      "3": 0.1096121801788726,
      "4": 0.1323229589161482,
      "5": 0.14176654851548626,
      "6": 0.13479522342697026,
      "7": 0.11374633554579429,
      "8": 0.08518487692197703,
      "9": 0.05661737901619351,
      "10": 0.03339636475345555,
      "11": 0.017482792591143388,
      "12": 0.008122404043829405,
      "13": 0.0033490416453108352
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07412397611363378,
      "1": 0.1231124141038267,
      "2": 0.16784705037390743,
      "3": 0.18784269309839996,
      "4": 0.17256138774189794,
      "5": 0.13012527775899105,
      "6": 0.08054682769542472,
      "7": 0.0409264370577727,
      "8": 0.01706978933151014,
      "9": 0.005844146724635408
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.033,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.822,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9441,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6921,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9441,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.872,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.033,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7801685333251953,
      "home_runs": 4.669975757598877,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_BOS@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickBOS
Published scoreBOS 5 - 4 PIT
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 57.4% → blended 55.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=277
H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4334
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.6306657791137695-3.9647321701049805Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.574188,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5379,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.556044,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5116,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.288,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4334
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027735654631974065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027257938298088712
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026056979256389334
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025608176270930358
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025275352713429483
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05752879755163999,
      "1": 0.09695511735561733,
      "2": 0.13810503165507512,
      "3": 0.1662652894675421,
      "4": 0.1691792165469937,
      "5": 0.14549422374444318,
      "6": 0.10575424759520054,
      "7": 0.06496855587487331,
      "8": 0.03373354109771329,
      "9": 0.014803826191968157,
      "10": 0.00549084707085271,
      "11": 0.0017213058480805511
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05029220763920657,
      "1": 0.08530641715256537,
      "2": 0.12388169950085942,
      "3": 0.1540199782705068,
      "4": 0.16394244634812932,
      "5": 0.14939986854950726,
      "6": 0.11656105506852307,
      "7": 0.0778576291461202,
      "8": 0.044523913490754345,
      "9": 0.021798666953593338,
      "10": 0.009137155006511593,
      "11": 0.003278962873722831
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 PIT",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 6 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0558,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.062,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4334,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.589,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4334,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.288,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0558,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.6306657791137695,
      "home_runs": 3.9647321701049805,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_CHW@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickDET
Published scoreCHW 3 - 5 DET
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 77.1% → blended 66.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=181
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4065
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.40595006942749-5.3916120529174805Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 3 - 5 DET",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.770813,
    "sample_size": 181,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5525,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.661657,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.298,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.608,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4065
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03014839961382115
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029904781259462845
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02970515569738908
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029465119037412023
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026612157586958715
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03772629833779619,
      "1": 0.0647141225252866,
      "2": 0.09719549348962625,
      "3": 0.12781604694814208,
      "4": 0.14716916456574664,
      "5": 0.14836807350852477,
      "6": 0.130965311713337,
      "7": 0.1012195249111494,
      "8": 0.06849588769289718,
      "9": 0.04058419093607506,
      "10": 0.02105433248447565,
      "11": 0.009563530594735546,
      "12": 0.0038035332439306036,
      "13": 0.001324489048276986
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09560814654003139,
      "1": 0.1557214383813503,
      "2": 0.20021258613755819,
      "3": 0.20320004769819242,
      "4": 0.16279673739812434,
      "5": 0.10295727741996241,
      "6": 0.05139937801705374,
      "7": 0.020255741169500286,
      "8": 0.006301266903256357,
      "9": 0.0015473803349705024
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 3 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.2173,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.558,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4065,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6411,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4065,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.608,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2173,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.625,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.25,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.40595006942749,
      "home_runs": 5.3916120529174805,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_COL@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCOL
Published scoreCOL 3 - 2 SF
Final confidence53.7%
Calibrationraw 55.6% → blended 53.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2722
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.763676643371582-5.222821235656738Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "COL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.536927,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.536927,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.556153,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536927,
    "published_confidence": 0.536927,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5071,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2722
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03266876706952765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03151227854845339
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030886948697801873
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029793537319772363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028597536349657032
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06956154842877241,
      "1": 0.11601044348736267,
      "2": 0.16012644872420428,
      "3": 0.1829225283983048,
      "4": 0.17294557637532348,
      "5": 0.13532868418183366,
      "6": 0.08764121686172606,
      "7": 0.046974814894275366,
      "8": 0.020838185253277262,
      "9": 0.007650553394920062
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06618745895290985,
      "1": 0.11069986652486888,
      "2": 0.15411457421363037,
      "3": 0.1785934589663719,
      "4": 0.17227117307189718,
      "5": 0.1383199737303446,
      "6": 0.09244478334005385,
      "7": 0.05142865239873799,
      "8": 0.023815138112974133,
      "9": 0.009179653510051736,
      "10": 0.002945267178159573
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "COL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "COL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0718,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1958,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "COL",
      "model_winner": "COL",
      "simulation_winner": "COL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2722,
      "winner": "COL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "COL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5369,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5369,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2722,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.164,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0718,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 19,
        "range": 14
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.763676643371582,
      "home_runs": 5.222821235656738,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_KC@LAA

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickKC
Published scoreKC 4 - 3 LAA
Final confidence57.0%
Calibrationraw 60.4% → blended 57.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=328
H2H base featurehome net -17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1642
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.097630977630615-4.18576717376709Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.570489,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.570489,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.604379,
    "sample_size": 328,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5366,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.570489,
    "published_confidence": 0.570489,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1062,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2418,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1642
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034698670331421426
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.034114041310682575
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032923093643190425
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03236838085989157
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029538028963433348
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08738168460074422,
      "1": 0.14340023851644648,
      "2": 0.1885908863973238,
      "3": 0.1987617890812874,
      "4": 0.16787516794415497,
      "5": 0.11362696075109467,
      "6": 0.061633621683717,
      "7": 0.02679139660530612,
      "8": 0.009332852155992142,
      "9": 0.0026054022639332075
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.063132505592562,
      "1": 0.10587814201614172,
      "2": 0.1486101986702948,
      "3": 0.17457414974882698,
      "4": 0.17163279455454586,
      "5": 0.14122436466264973,
      "6": 0.0972541187591904,
      "7": 0.05605255246603325,
      "8": 0.027037828081349323,
      "9": 0.0109153390001008,
      "10": 0.003688006448305205
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.113,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.33,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1642,
      "winner": "KC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5705,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5273,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5705,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1642,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.02,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.113,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.097630977630615,
      "home_runs": 4.18576717376709,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_MIA@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIA
Published scoreMIA 3 - 2 CIN
Final confidence51.4%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 51.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4548
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.443117618560791-4.495791912078857Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5139,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 3 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.5139,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7341,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.064,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4548
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0375716849259039
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034903685861365635
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034278544694552486
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03352360968872999
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03268603892416081
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08273291405130778,
      "1": 0.13634625668168698,
      "2": 0.18160188751217674,
      "3": 0.19548333452970137,
      "4": 0.1700635969364594,
      "5": 0.11957082442231258,
      "6": 0.06794403398469968,
      "7": 0.031202520297252435,
      "8": 0.011580845343007358,
      "9": 0.003473786241395912
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07873928517127106,
      "1": 0.13023453043876043,
      "2": 0.1753527725369564,
      "3": 0.192198915658436,
      "4": 0.17149088319667719,
      "5": 0.1245612473496364,
      "6": 0.07365066421351014,
      "7": 0.03545048611462867,
      "8": 0.013890552795699278,
      "9": 0.004430662524424416
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 3 CIN",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 1 CIN",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1239,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.134,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4548,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5139,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5535,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5139,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4548,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.064,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1239,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.443117618560791,
      "home_runs": 4.495791912078857,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_MIL@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIL
Published scoreMIL 5 - 3 LAD
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 49.9% → blended 50.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0583
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.6574339866638184-3.2828004360198975Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.498807,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.508254,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0574,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.06,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0583
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03910665678384646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03723274353326504
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03650470795163087
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.034755474916516954
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03379323085852101
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0881322504840971,
      "1": 0.14453299821213467,
      "2": 0.18969064497595983,
      "3": 0.1992377204638084,
      "4": 0.16747267792360407,
      "5": 0.11265827966516236,
      "6": 0.060649749997623355,
      "7": 0.026130135665723572,
      "8": 0.009009507761149123,
      "9": 0.0024860348507375453
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08379253560460849,
      "1": 0.13795985092958915,
      "2": 0.1832218711730441,
      "3": 0.1962813903552475,
      "4": 0.1696126154216845,
      "5": 0.11822637951166012,
      "6": 0.06647339243079593,
      "7": 0.030148000251486798,
      "8": 0.01102926041229307,
      "9": 0.0032547039095903747
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 LAD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 LAD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2209,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.13,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.626,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0583,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.06,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2209,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6574339866638184,
      "home_runs": 3.2828004360198975,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_NYY@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickNYY
Published scoreNYY 4 - 2 TOR
Final confidence51.0%
Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 48.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=226
H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7563
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.449555397033691-3.475412368774414Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.51,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.4889,
    "published_confidence": 0.51,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2992,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.252,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7563
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03948049508896853
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.037842556502640096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.037085104362628935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.035546544036151685
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03381858230895801
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08960618013695015,
      "1": 0.14675246672407213,
      "2": 0.19182720276567136,
      "3": 0.20013005559474545,
      "4": 0.16664480373026735,
      "5": 0.11075123412982811,
      "6": 0.058746596494171306,
      "7": 0.024871053688842702,
      "8": 0.00840394105137441,
      "9": 0.002266465684077106
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0851706946819475,
      "1": 0.14005345532242006,
      "2": 0.18530502203889174,
      "3": 0.19727419238275132,
      "4": 0.16898302560530515,
      "5": 0.11646773042193714,
      "6": 0.06458889675532925,
      "7": 0.028820389330356525,
      "8": 0.010347407276060561,
      "9": 0.0029891861850006728
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TOR",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 1 TOR",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0868,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.252,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7563,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.51,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6397,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.51,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7563,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.252,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0868,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.449555397033691,
      "home_runs": 3.475412368774414,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_PHI@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickPHI
Published scorePHI 6 - 4 MIN
Final confidence61.1%
Calibrationraw 67.7% → blended 61.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=246
H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3164
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.607705593109131-3.6339972019195557Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.610859,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.610859,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.677018,
    "sample_size": 246,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5447,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.610859,
    "published_confidence": 0.610859,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -6.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3618,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.232,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3164
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026581805241858977
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025770834016586707
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02533246318091515
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024559607518251557
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.02412902937357359
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06830122448656373,
      "1": 0.11403792097229794,
      "2": 0.15794073018010654,
      "3": 0.18145253539507122,
      "4": 0.17292428524534184,
      "5": 0.13670140765606992,
      "6": 0.08964251509981948,
      "7": 0.048761732583357906,
      "8": 0.022002309666961987,
      "9": 0.008235338714409488
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03495708943403121,
      "1": 0.0601165063487574,
      "2": 0.09098118401149362,
      "3": 0.12117382507090087,
      "4": 0.14202520764163826,
      "5": 0.14649453745015578,
      "6": 0.1329770858314995,
      "7": 0.10622618244425823,
      "8": 0.07467680340611195,
      "9": 0.04619970975408087,
      "10": 0.025153137063052347,
      "11": 0.012051592820354236,
      "12": 0.005081549086654028,
      "13": 0.0018855896370117602
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 MIN",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 6 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1471,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.582,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3164,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.6109,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5995,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6109,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3164,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.232,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1471,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.607705593109131,
      "home_runs": 3.6339972019195557,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_SD@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickSD
Published scoreSD 6 - 1 CLE
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 87.9% → blended 74.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.3% · weight 44.5% · n=89
H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.617
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.8189046382904053-4.598494052886963Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-2Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 2 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.878881,
    "sample_size": 89,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.573,
    "empirical_weight": 0.445,
    "blended_confidence": 0.742764,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0167,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0167,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3699,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.076,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.617
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.031699797346678084
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030068687092617438
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02987054094450306
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.029553293943737183
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028333554915978085
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.11153379670430941,
      "1": 0.17898260638360752,
      "2": 0.22009303534858066,
      "3": 0.20739243068595448,
      "4": 0.14975131108402942,
      "5": 0.0828589632481122,
      "6": 0.03513172597059058,
      "7": 0.011414334830555003,
      "8": 0.0028417957442607366
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03234550670779475,
      "1": 0.05576047049213095,
      "2": 0.08500535542342891,
      "3": 0.11459707505623008,
      "4": 0.1366180762830365,
      "5": 0.1440290797774329,
      "6": 0.13427637043094542,
      "7": 0.11070223484683764,
      "8": 0.08070874065670318,
      "9": 0.05203459043524963,
      "10": 0.029666826908368932,
      "11": 0.014957445953443291,
      "12": 0.00666885345632145,
      "13": 0.002629373572076479
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "SD 5 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "SD 6 - 1 CLE",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0149,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.426,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.617,
      "winner": "SD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.69,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.617,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.076,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0149,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8189046382904053,
      "home_runs": 4.598494052886963,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_SEA@HOU

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickHOU
Published scoreSEA 2 - 3 HOU
Final confidence55.6%
Calibrationraw 57.5% → blended 55.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=329
H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3132
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.032726764678955-4.687307834625244Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.55645,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 3 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.55645,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5749,
    "sample_size": 329,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.55645,
    "published_confidence": 0.55645,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0533,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.796,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3132
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03101255907937732
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029573929523767133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0286647496394868
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02772410566398891
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02759028164467261
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05268482203602575,
      "1": 0.08917435549503144,
      "2": 0.1286725212374568,
      "3": 0.15827889585194463,
      "4": 0.1659784035355265,
      "5": 0.1483786870274467,
      "6": 0.1130792278517166,
      "7": 0.07346585115287416,
      "8": 0.04068923873231245,
      "9": 0.01921166408157523,
      "10": 0.007732888957341518,
      "11": 0.002653444040748236
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07315244426130108,
      "1": 0.12160520314724906,
      "2": 0.16622814207733422,
      "3": 0.1868469536926188,
      "4": 0.17270168304366967,
      "5": 0.1312611472753693,
      "6": 0.08203607987965186,
      "7": 0.04216020173453871,
      "8": 0.017816793186771335,
      "9": 0.006191351701495929
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 3 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0398,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6016,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3132,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5565,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6438,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5565,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3132,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.796,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0398,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.032726764678955,
      "home_runs": 4.687307834625244,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_STL@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHC
Published scoreSTL 3 - 5 CHC
Final confidence54.0%
Calibrationraw 57.7% → blended 55.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=303
H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7975
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.61689567565918-4.704270839691162Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.577134,
    "sample_size": 303,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.538,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557567,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0633,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7975
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03258988791704559
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03229849318902768
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02979468257318078
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02952828050862348
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02922116834462888
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06184815418517541,
      "1": 0.10384295466904656,
      "2": 0.146254879454686,
      "3": 0.1727932310108399,
      "4": 0.17124824145205703,
      "5": 0.1423667428503908,
      "6": 0.09928279880552571,
      "7": 0.058079451690304165,
      "8": 0.028500602270444153,
      "9": 0.011731906717164207,
      "10": 0.004051036894366003
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07488797479191445,
      "1": 0.1242957175080947,
      "2": 0.16911060794271354,
      "3": 0.18860627656763426,
      "4": 0.17242968604083606,
      "5": 0.12922261904972426,
      "6": 0.0793844876077132,
      "7": 0.03997637021644106,
      "8": 0.016502193542033673,
      "9": 0.005584066732894676
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 3 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 3 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1034,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7975,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.642,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7975,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.304,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1034,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.61689567565918,
      "home_runs": 4.704270839691162,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_TEX@OAK

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickTEX
Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 OAK
Final confidence52.8%
Calibrationraw 51.4% → blended 52.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=255
H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9669
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.390755653381348-4.48615026473999Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.527845,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.527845,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.514491,
    "sample_size": 255,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5412,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527845,
    "published_confidence": 0.527845,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3066,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.336,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9669
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030373863056407102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03028110568704652
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02950222479322683
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029412129280613826
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026081337159539433
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06089888139819137,
      "1": 0.10233568035255877,
      "2": 0.1444983288688522,
      "3": 0.17144173191902085,
      "4": 0.1709181737525177,
      "5": 0.14317853676820017,
      "6": 0.100782603532437,
      "7": 0.059608913303408104,
      "8": 0.02962475813053055,
      "9": 0.012371330225160232,
      "10": 0.004341061749122919
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06507686663222628,
      "1": 0.10895011450134466,
      "2": 0.15212945452428553,
      "3": 0.1771672667816606,
      "4": 0.17208310055548187,
      "5": 0.1394047332766489,
      "6": 0.094189258353161,
      "7": 0.053077418827432034,
      "8": 0.024946106520824355,
      "9": 0.009778681706961294,
      "10": 0.0031969983199734596
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 6 - 3 OAK",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0002,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2485,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9669,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5278,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5501,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5278,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9669,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0002,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.390755653381348,
      "home_runs": 4.48615026473999,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260815_WAS@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickNYM
Published scoreWAS 3 - 4 NYM
Final confidence57.2%
Calibrationraw 60.7% → blended 57.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 53.7% · weight 50.0% · n=328
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2761
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usediagnostic_only_winner_disagreement
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.307551383972168-4.686503887176514Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Simulation Winner Disagreement3-4Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only.
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.571933,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.571933,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.607266,
    "sample_size": 328,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5366,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.571933,
    "published_confidence": 0.571933,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5863,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2761
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03257663123906232
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03205160691033607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029759371183095983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02927975148994658
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029014697762092322
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057710158231273366,
      "1": 0.09724512527419471,
      "2": 0.13845129156574862,
      "3": 0.16654813703377053,
      "4": 0.1692762942862721,
      "5": 0.14536709222727864,
      "6": 0.10547503056287677,
      "7": 0.06466165450264266,
      "8": 0.033493270881708184,
      "9": 0.014658242672882689,
      "10": 0.005420256626697197,
      "11": 0.0016934461346545789
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07902256780037205,
      "1": 0.1306696246487875,
      "2": 0.17580353651154682,
      "3": 0.19244650514365733,
      "4": 0.17140437699459576,
      "5": 0.12421191143325021,
      "6": 0.07323758917944369,
      "7": 0.03513454166941192,
      "8": 0.013713995512912669,
      "9": 0.004355351106022169
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 2 NYM",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": true,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": true,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": false,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "diagnostic_only_winner_disagreement",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2761,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5719,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5203,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5719,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2761,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.2092,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.307551383972168,
      "home_runs": 4.686503887176514,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Inning simulation disagreed with the model winner and was retained as diagnostic evidence only."
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081520260815_ARI@ATLATL51.4%51.0%51.8%50.0%2.0-3.010-3missEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5177,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_confidence": 0.5139,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 15.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9431,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.188,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6788
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03754745248837321
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03486875893722575
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034245056677966346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03351757482479744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032681241524622075
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07866574231063067,
      "1": 0.13012153686206065,
      "2": 0.1752355625462282,
      "3": 0.1921342697969975,
      "4": 0.17151296126742094,
      "5": 0.12465180756755623,
      "6": 0.07375810323366484,
      "7": 0.03553288114549986,
      "8": 0.01393672179227966,
      "9": 0.004450413477661396
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08265439179454698,
      "1": 0.1362265485130956,
      "2": 0.1814812056905147,
      "3": 0.19542298481184314,
      "4": 0.17009584786280946,
      "5": 0.1196701585070558,
      "6": 0.06805375667536541,
      "7": 0.03128184972604394,
      "8": 0.011622694714436926,
      "9": 0.003490561704288044
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0044,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.118,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6788,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081520260815_BAL@TBTB56.0%74.1%54.5%50.0%3.0-6.04-3missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.741034,
    "sample_size": 178,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5449,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.642967,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.983,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.872,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9441
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026629810264413915
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025320297785322625
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024855900961558215
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02446343234721141
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023795097010013814
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030444069153833592,
      "1": 0.0525766079942723,
      "2": 0.08058321729671263,
      "3": 0.1096121801788726,
      "4": 0.1323229589161482,
      "5": 0.14176654851548626,
      "6": 0.13479522342697026,
      "7": 0.11374633554579429,
      "8": 0.08518487692197703,
      "9": 0.05661737901619351,
      "10": 0.03339636475345555,
      "11": 0.017482792591143388,
      "12": 0.008122404043829405,
      "13": 0.0033490416453108352
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07412397611363378,
      "1": 0.1231124141038267,
      "2": 0.16784705037390743,
      "3": 0.18784269309839996,
      "4": 0.17256138774189794,
      "5": 0.13012527775899105,
      "6": 0.08054682769542472,
      "7": 0.0409264370577727,
      "8": 0.01706978933151014,
      "9": 0.005844146724635408
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.033,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.822,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9441,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081520260815_BOS@PITBOS53.0%57.4%53.8%50.0%5.0-4.04-0hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.574188,
    "sample_size": 277,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5379,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.556044,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5116,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.288,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4334
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027735654631974065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027257938298088712
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026056979256389334
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025608176270930358
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025275352713429483
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05752879755163999,
      "1": 0.09695511735561733,
      "2": 0.13810503165507512,
      "3": 0.1662652894675421,
      "4": 0.1691792165469937,
      "5": 0.14549422374444318,
      "6": 0.10575424759520054,
      "7": 0.06496855587487331,
      "8": 0.03373354109771329,
      "9": 0.014803826191968157,
      "10": 0.00549084707085271,
      "11": 0.0017213058480805511
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05029220763920657,
      "1": 0.08530641715256537,
      "2": 0.12388169950085942,
      "3": 0.1540199782705068,
      "4": 0.16394244634812932,
      "5": 0.14939986854950726,
      "6": 0.11656105506852307,
      "7": 0.0778576291461202,
      "8": 0.044523913490754345,
      "9": 0.021798666953593338,
      "10": 0.009137155006511593,
      "11": 0.003278962873722831
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 4 PIT",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 6 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0558,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.062,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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Signals
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2026081520260815_MIA@CINMIA51.4%51.0%51.8%50.0%3.0-2.08-4hitSimulation Result (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081520260815_SEA@HOUHOU55.6%57.5%53.8%50.0%2.0-3.010-5missSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081520260815_STL@CHCCHC54.0%57.7%53.8%50.0%3.0-5.08-4missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081520260815_TEX@OAKTEX52.8%51.4%54.1%50.0%5.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualFundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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2026081520260815_WAS@NYMNYM57.2%60.7%53.7%50.0%3.0-4.04-5hitSimulation Result (-4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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}