Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260811 · dates 20260811 · generated 2026-08-12T02:44:49.617987+00:00

5-4
Winner picks · 55.6%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
2026081115965415Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied15
applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored15
available games: 14
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X15
variance multipliers: [1.65]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support15
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1015
configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented15
settled games: 9metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1848.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55153.0%0.0%53.0%overconfident
0.55-0.60456.9%75.0%-18.1%underconfident
0.60-0.65460.3%50.0%10.3%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml91.74083.262.179366.7%0.00.0
variance_applied91.61113.02.111144.4%-0.1297-0.0682
enhanced_prediction91.88892.66672.444455.6%0.14810.2651
embedded_savant_run_environment91.88892.66672.444455.6%0.14810.2651
fundamental_edge_target_review91.88892.66672.444455.6%0.14810.2651
capped_target91.88892.66672.444455.6%0.14810.2651
simulation_result92.22223.33332.666755.6%0.48140.4874
published_final92.03.55562.666755.6%0.25920.4874
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_result",
  "games": 9,
  "team_run_mae": 2.2222,
  "total_run_mae": 3.3333,
  "margin_mae": 2.6667,
  "winner_hits": 5,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5556,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4814,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4874
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result7.04
enhanced_prediction6.04
embedded_savant_run_environment0.04
fundamental_edge_target_review0.04
capped_target0.04
variance_applied-0.80044
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 4
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.8004,
      "games": 4
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result9.05
enhanced_prediction5.05
embedded_savant_run_environment0.05
fundamental_edge_target_review0.05
capped_target0.05
variance_applied-0.18625
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.1862,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=9

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)000
[0.525, 0.550)1010.0
[0.550, 0.600)4310.75
[0.600, 1.010)4220.5
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260811150.58517.26670.5556
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260811",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5851,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.2667,
      "accuracy": 0.5556
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v19540.5556
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.5556
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260811_BAL@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickMIN
Published scoreBAL 4 - 5 MIN
Final confidence60.0%
Calibrationraw 63.8% → blended 60.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=146
H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1095
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.543669700622559-4.444427967071533Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638275,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603387,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0716,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1095
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03276653778352146
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031284844672338184
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030770119957819055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029378704268038364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029245999681559144
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05288140259715341,
      "1": 0.08949142522918661,
      "2": 0.12906225471386656,
      "3": 0.1586194484784552,
      "4": 0.16613188290386965,
      "5": 0.14828215988528598,
      "6": 0.11278833450498853,
      "7": 0.07311034414815071,
      "8": 0.04038618562409967,
      "9": 0.0190119301550185,
      "10": 0.007627091340993103,
      "11": 0.002607540418932128
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08511078131506629,
      "1": 0.1399625582555303,
      "2": 0.1852150196577489,
      "3": 0.19723208580306917,
      "4": 0.16901138805302401,
      "5": 0.11654439854530081,
      "6": 0.06467015126546043,
      "7": 0.028877087184196862,
      "8": 0.01037623805206634,
      "9": 0.0030002918685368184
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.18,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1095,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.537,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1095,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0092,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.543669700622559,
      "home_runs": 4.444427967071533,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_BOS@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickBOS
Published scoreBOS 3 - 2 TOR
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 70.8% → blended 62.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=228
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0555
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.143672466278076-4.985301494598389Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.707785,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627992,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2878,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.624,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0555
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02496244505166543
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024663926569323622
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023653363637570948
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023370500071892494
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.023301786031973425
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06233699062533816,
      "1": 0.1046181270765494,
      "2": 0.14715421692491434,
      "3": 0.17347749644531382,
      "4": 0.17140293047823296,
      "5": 0.1419377780880357,
      "6": 0.09851047766920434,
      "7": 0.05730222825215742,
      "8": 0.02793606666528048,
      "9": 0.011414678119119502,
      "10": 0.003909009655853937
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03222193793120651,
      "1": 0.05555387675824984,
      "2": 0.08471980746172764,
      "3": 0.11427820862118451,
      "4": 0.13634831100428818,
      "5": 0.14389442759530752,
      "6": 0.13432166424720662,
      "7": 0.11090625152474176,
      "8": 0.08099791966571473,
      "9": 0.052323836166428155,
      "10": 0.029897382269217607,
      "11": 0.015110353562761714,
      "12": 0.0067549783769802136,
      "13": 0.0026710448149849767
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 1 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0946,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.484,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0555,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6805,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0555,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.624,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0946,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.143672466278076,
      "home_runs": 4.985301494598389,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_CHC@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHC
Published scoreCHC 3 - 2 WAS
Final confidence57.0%
Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 58.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=283
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7434
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.628935813903809-4.575562000274658Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.57,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.622764,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5406,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581682,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8314,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.58,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7434
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032731667508055416
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032151776486832914
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030072281062282366
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02953950509627314
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028920585629995575
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08028597703899801,
      "1": 0.13260718937870047,
      "2": 0.17779995082294858,
      "3": 0.19352335997499706,
      "4": 0.17099064391338936,
      "5": 0.1226446174058826,
      "6": 0.07141046000088562,
      "7": 0.03375299860493137,
      "8": 0.012950904030693124,
      "9": 0.004033898828573712
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057448055140135054,
      "1": 0.09682597437212087,
      "2": 0.1379507159110087,
      "3": 0.1661389947497133,
      "4": 0.16913548582602278,
      "5": 0.14555040868199978,
      "6": 0.10587847083468226,
      "7": 0.06510546251972278,
      "8": 0.033840964621183,
      "9": 0.014869062138526514,
      "10": 0.005522553807711663,
      "11": 0.001733851397173354
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 2 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0141,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4633,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7434,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.57,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5497,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.57,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7434,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.58,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0141,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.628935813903809,
      "home_runs": 4.575562000274658,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_CIN@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHW
Published scoreCIN 2 - 4 CHW
Final confidence56.4%
Calibrationraw 58.2% → blended 56.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=205
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6205
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.474125862121582-5.167219638824463Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.563924,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.563924,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.581549,
    "sample_size": 205,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5463,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.563924,
    "published_confidence": 0.563924,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0128,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6205
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03456948723024833
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03455408658320304
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03391601777037322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03390090824284728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029089699981428352
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06025627230604808,
      "1": 0.10130652764138978,
      "2": 0.14326014374693943,
      "3": 0.1703986380508068,
      "4": 0.17047458418456726,
      "5": 0.1434517809118278,
      "6": 0.1015324889660813,
      "7": 0.06044451606466871,
      "8": 0.030266455306456976,
      "9": 0.012747323312710175,
      "10": 0.004515743078978497,
      "11": 0.0013455264295250987
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.094681300638034,
      "1": 0.15434368091344944,
      "2": 0.19895058217976622,
      "3": 0.20278381904026863,
      "4": 0.1634380244337726,
      "5": 0.10416087822440824,
      "6": 0.05249136718156096,
      "7": 0.020917166753463792,
      "8": 0.006590973348020876,
      "9": 0.0016422072872553071
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CIN 1 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1355,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.108,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6205,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5639,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6039,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5639,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6205,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.108,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1355,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.7,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.474125862121582,
      "home_runs": 5.167219638824463,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_CLE@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickDET
Published scoreCLE 2 - 6 DET
Final confidence58.0%
Calibrationraw 88.4% → blended 71.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=153
H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0451
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.825775384902954-5.0411224365234375Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-6Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 3 - 6 DET",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.884408,
    "sample_size": 153,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.716704,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9704,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.184,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0451
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02564050496790488
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024805436415668316
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023881666306058622
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02378869740276558
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023013939139440144
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02256354467120247,
      "1": 0.039264066721542,
      "2": 0.061566091141641875,
      "3": 0.086985373534543,
      "4": 0.11074120238089685,
      "5": 0.1270371044609443,
      "6": 0.1313137754747031,
      "7": 0.12230616250346844,
      "8": 0.10264664087999742,
      "9": 0.0776246210981879,
      "10": 0.05289475318361357,
      "11": 0.03247760882134211,
      "12": 0.017968583752131704,
      "13": 0.008957813160747407,
      "14": 0.0040239122496095224,
      "15": 0.0016287459654283614
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08244514991039756,
      "1": 0.13590746626064007,
      "2": 0.1811591915377404,
      "3": 0.19526134920128305,
      "4": 0.17018099237032477,
      "5": 0.11993464992256837,
      "6": 0.06834663635064096,
      "7": 0.03149404718712281,
      "8": 0.011734880081174601,
      "9": 0.0035356371781073014
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CLE 2 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0115,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.834,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0451,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6414,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0451,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.184,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0115,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.825775384902954,
      "home_runs": 5.0411224365234375,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_COL@ARI

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickARI
Published scoreCOL 3 - 5 ARI
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 85.6% → blended 74.1%
Empirical signalhit rate 58.3% · weight 42.0% · n=84
H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9065
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.835237979888916-5.177890777587891Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.855943,
    "sample_size": 84,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
    "empirical_weight": 0.42,
    "blended_confidence": 0.741433,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9065
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03352493296206564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03193921396265427
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03108831255778913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029939577177960794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02852344440241861
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03286521701690962,
      "1": 0.056628890119505726,
      "2": 0.0862035463220241,
      "3": 0.11593051163130126,
      "4": 0.1377386777726,
      "5": 0.14457713154773671,
      "6": 0.13406914368331357,
      "7": 0.10983572074449308,
      "8": 0.07949574983928058,
      "9": 0.05083112870217706,
      "10": 0.02871449175074379,
      "11": 0.014330391364010793,
      "12": 0.006318303827211223,
      "13": 0.002461095678692619
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12266356601302113,
      "1": 0.19474134114436686,
      "2": 0.23188268160512182,
      "3": 0.20708376807209855,
      "4": 0.1387047680626342,
      "5": 0.06967938506535136,
      "6": 0.026253355242363136,
      "7": 0.007418787100464324,
      "8": 0.0015723476945785596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0918,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ARI",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6825,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.392,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0918,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 16,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.835237979888916,
      "home_runs": 5.177890777587891,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_HOU@SF

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickHOU
Published scoreHOU 7 - 2 SF
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 83.2% → blended 72.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 58.3% · weight 42.0% · n=84
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.579
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.912042617797852-3.9717018604278564Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result7-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.831595,
    "sample_size": 84,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
    "empirical_weight": 0.42,
    "blended_confidence": 0.727311,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3782,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.952,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.579
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02592483837642393
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.025485824600915596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02361457259255199
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023546625233278932
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023306003787767093
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07546875795961795,
      "1": 0.12519410306461598,
      "2": 0.17006554326213627,
      "3": 0.18917536282147945,
      "4": 0.17231719145962932,
      "5": 0.12853115990735475,
      "6": 0.07850621387834127,
      "7": 0.03926588828642648,
      "8": 0.01608209441159297,
      "9": 0.005393684948805574
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027281422844316536,
      "1": 0.04725779097463159,
      "2": 0.07309287820846867,
      "3": 0.10094201192562388,
      "4": 0.1244698299085561,
      "5": 0.13704130384509222,
      "6": 0.13472063286045338,
      "7": 0.1182529525534598,
      "8": 0.09267980647525517,
      "9": 0.0648564972784024,
      "10": 0.04052444801347405,
      "11": 0.022608719854835868,
      "12": 0.011262377584826512,
      "13": 0.005009327672603831
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.952,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.141,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 18,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.912042617797852,
      "home_runs": 3.9717018604278564,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_KC@LAD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickLAD
Published scoreKC 5 - 6 LAD
Final confidence53.0%
Calibrationraw 67.5% → blended 61.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=192
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4819
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.295497417449951-4.466613292694092Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.674737,
    "sample_size": 192,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5573,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.616019,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.366,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4819
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02637975403579102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026037650396494458
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025493259396966735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02516265218943171
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02342656534192684
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037125506360605465,
      "1": 0.06371851216315212,
      "2": 0.09585787439372273,
      "3": 0.12640343906432838,
      "4": 0.14610292576189315,
      "5": 0.1480225437709647,
      "6": 0.13145155898815222,
      "7": 0.10232283075532991,
      "8": 0.06981492552295518,
      "9": 0.04175350509304776,
      "10": 0.021888022513995194,
      "11": 0.01005747685370708,
      "12": 0.004050797042234412,
      "13": 0.0014300817159115518
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06588927753095837,
      "1": 0.1102304297350244,
      "2": 0.15358337660062968,
      "3": 0.17821443520527805,
      "4": 0.17222551881294826,
      "5": 0.13861431428243287,
      "6": 0.09291260061525673,
      "7": 0.05186771399244588,
      "8": 0.024114349706238217,
      "9": 0.009337055884534366,
      "10": 0.003010927634253309
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0819,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.19,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4819,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5597,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4819,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.16,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0819,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.295497417449951,
      "home_runs": 4.466613292694092,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_MIL@SD

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickMIL
Published scoreMIL 4 - 3 SD
Final confidence51.3%
Calibrationraw 50.7% → blended 51.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=197
H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=4
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8802
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.632017612457275-3.4299988746643066Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.51256,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
    "confidence": 0.51256,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.507321,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51256,
    "published_confidence": 0.51256,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0312,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4381,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.156,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8802
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032631742869563336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03149280918176258
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03086887506152976
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029791470098741776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02855393413098635
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06947451629234096,
      "1": 0.11587437819185523,
      "2": 0.1599762519239805,
      "3": 0.18282258038673607,
      "4": 0.17294593840553132,
      "5": 0.13542446106858644,
      "6": 0.08777888919290418,
      "7": 0.04709656809601823,
      "8": 0.020916771792436253,
      "9": 0.007689644649610829
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06610472551464565,
      "1": 0.11056964246239184,
      "2": 0.15396731931605936,
      "3": 0.17848858057103978,
      "4": 0.17225885946442646,
      "5": 0.13840186524501671,
      "6": 0.09257454007845264,
      "7": 0.051550208625645265,
      "8": 0.023897833749935794,
      "9": 0.009223078139107412,
      "10": 0.002963346833279026
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2122,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5126,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6476,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5126,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.156,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.2122,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.632017612457275,
      "home_runs": 3.4299988746643066,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_NYM@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickATL
Published scoreNYM 4 - 5 ATL
Final confidence56.4%
Calibrationraw 58.8% → blended 56.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.0% · weight 50.0% · n=237
H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0452
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.204972267150879-4.244497299194336Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.563809,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.563809,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.587519,
    "sample_size": 237,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.563809,
    "published_confidence": 0.563809,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.4917,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0452
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03337695850529389
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03282351007161941
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031341248762911764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030821555962428325
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028680107200557636
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05763399580145195,
      "1": 0.09712334795450693,
      "2": 0.13830594011446662,
      "3": 0.16642949517585748,
      "4": 0.16923571983681945,
      "5": 0.1454206376028445,
      "6": 0.10559231959793092,
      "7": 0.0647904342173976,
      "8": 0.03359400055819297,
      "9": 0.014719221270774177,
      "10": 0.005449795641662191,
      "11": 0.001705092228095077
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0850960421653141,
      "1": 0.13994019521441708,
      "2": 0.18519287058980005,
      "3": 0.19722171263535046,
      "4": 0.16901835176345767,
      "5": 0.11656325668909374,
      "6": 0.0646901499011919,
      "7": 0.028891049365589953,
      "8": 0.010383341774664438,
      "9": 0.0030030299011208792
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 2 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1368,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1205,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0452,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5638,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6137,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5638,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0452,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.216,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1368,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.204972267150879,
      "home_runs": 4.244497299194336,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_PHI@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickPHI
Published scorePHI 5 - 2 STL
Final confidence61.0%
Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=228
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.234
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner_supported
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.836511611938477-3.7884485721588135Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": 0.61035,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 STL",
    "confidence": 0.61035,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61035,
    "published_confidence": 0.61035,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1403,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.234
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02736060439518913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026868313768093444
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025518382282225548
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025059238169956116
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.024449636469172187
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07172203887208013,
      "1": 0.11938107913797548,
      "2": 0.16381986616043,
      "3": 0.18533004288002408,
      "4": 0.17285155014431164,
      "5": 0.13290732714645054,
      "6": 0.08425055347890302,
      "7": 0.04402960548634273,
      "8": 0.018969899000266622,
      "9": 0.006738037693215679
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036506308932699905,
      "1": 0.06269132135563804,
      "2": 0.09447314358311489,
      "3": 0.12493115464693927,
      "4": 0.14497548994518397,
      "5": 0.14763178149643763,
      "6": 0.1319248411602645,
      "7": 0.10345101201164243,
      "8": 0.07118759994910122,
      "9": 0.0429868283227592,
      "10": 0.02277864565816947,
      "11": 0.01059209430507349,
      "12": 0.004322124003937388,
      "13": 0.001547654629038589
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0911,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.758,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.234,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.6103,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6569,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6103,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.234,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.408,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0911,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.836511611938477,
      "home_runs": 3.7884485721588135,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_PIT@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIA
Published scorePIT 2 - 3 MIA
Final confidence60.0%
Calibrationraw 67.1% → blended 62.0%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=146
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1677
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.283149242401123-4.032673358917236Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result2-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.670853,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.619676,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0176,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1677
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03402709250405994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03329221749129673
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03301706395857365
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03230400229175432
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029431583529895982
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05681073619967515,
      "1": 0.09580596037892943,
      "2": 0.1367292114698872,
      "3": 0.16513409806591348,
      "4": 0.16877918185931215,
      "5": 0.14598480867582678,
      "6": 0.1068570355543871,
      "7": 0.06619196097834472,
      "8": 0.03469876697548162,
      "9": 0.015393221059715636,
      "10": 0.005778985958079508,
      "11": 0.0018360328244475452
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09227837302473507,
      "1": 0.1507593403333806,
      "2": 0.19562284634188717,
      "3": 0.20160716581991506,
      "4": 0.16502259061491195,
      "5": 0.10728324036232917,
      "6": 0.05539510752212337,
      "7": 0.02271757562631338,
      "8": 0.007399520893664523,
      "9": 0.0019142394607397101
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 2 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0334,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6287,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1677,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6071,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1677,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.512,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0334,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.7,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 11
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.283149242401123,
      "home_runs": 4.032673358917236,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_SEA@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickNYY
Published scoreSEA 2 - 3 NYY
Final confidence60.0%
Calibrationraw 63.9% → blended 60.4%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=146
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7988
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.067162036895752-4.195684432983398Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction2-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment2-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review2-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target2-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result1-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.6,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638559,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603529,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9877,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.448,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7988
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.046827737065534454
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04278142683842544
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.041702945359032316
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.040832377643686045
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.039282111396728187
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0790401553126241,
      "1": 0.130696629470604,
      "2": 0.17583148427173206,
      "3": 0.1924618022773354,
      "4": 0.17139892992992728,
      "5": 0.12419019694459338,
      "6": 0.07321198416002578,
      "7": 0.03511500139907254,
      "8": 0.013703100873472046,
      "9": 0.004350715360613319
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.13531775037097699,
      "1": 0.21215834602258907,
      "2": 0.24330925155764774,
      "3": 0.20410341653209235,
      "4": 0.12523769798663695,
      "5": 0.056209927840619164,
      "6": 0.018453728606397844,
      "7": 0.00443147578699528,
      "8": 0.0007784052960445592
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 1 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0393,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5647,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7988,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.6,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5469,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7988,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.448,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0393,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 13
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.067162036895752,
      "home_runs": 4.195684432983398,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_TB@OAK

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickTB
Published scoreTB 5 - 1 OAK
Final confidence66.0%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=473
H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.7823
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation useorganic_score_same_winner
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml6.026363372802734-4.019290447235107Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-1Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-1Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-1Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-1Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-1Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.66,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 473,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.73275,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0958,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.2,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.7823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.038700392401018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.03825019683781073
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03499588470425254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.034023743403566065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.033788732032843584
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.22471692408938462,
      "1": 0.2842024213019849,
      "2": 0.24985871349450603,
      "3": 0.15269891781451458,
      "4": 0.06487123302466817,
      "5": 0.019157687296997482,
      "6": 0.003932862305168073,
      "7": 0.0005612406727759921
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026779026249101192,
      "1": 0.04641020802223993,
      "2": 0.07188729853302689,
      "3": 0.09952008224893705,
      "4": 0.12313717998576433,
      "5": 0.13617193063916977,
      "6": 0.13458786403922726,
      "7": 0.11888966982776229,
      "8": 0.09386469115389479,
      "9": 0.06623389639968585,
      "10": 0.04177132656145157,
      "11": 0.02354486178151351,
      "12": 0.01186134497924866,
      "13": 0.005340619578976952
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1481,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.66,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.66,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.2,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1481,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.125,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.375,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.026363372802734,
      "home_runs": 4.019290447235107,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260811_TEX@LAA

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending
PickTEX
Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 LAA
Final confidence53.5%
Calibrationraw 55.3% → blended 53.5%
Empirical signalhit rate 51.8% · weight 50.0% · n=197
H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5906
Simulation variance1.65
Simulation usesame_winner_margin_capped
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.838784217834473-4.2914814949035645Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result7-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.535478,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap"
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.535478,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.553156,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535478,
    "published_confidence": 0.535478,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6695,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5906
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03274336710667906
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03155134092433702
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03092319087504303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02979742842536837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028685537915928472
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06973735224165313,
      "1": 0.11628522662025803,
      "2": 0.16042951026652008,
      "3": 0.18312371777014935,
      "4": 0.17294402435474435,
      "5": 0.13513478324690123,
      "6": 0.08736336689347944,
      "7": 0.04672961482968799,
      "8": 0.02068024428801111,
      "9": 0.007572159488595337
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06635456191657986,
      "1": 0.11096282919505585,
      "2": 0.15441168875225794,
      "3": 0.17880462184465595,
      "4": 0.17229521827390587,
      "5": 0.13815405133956937,
      "6": 0.09218280984443805,
      "7": 0.05118375865530312,
      "8": 0.023648866213236624,
      "9": 0.009092522620855461,
      "10": 0.0029090713441421536
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TEX 7 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 3,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5355,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6123,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5355,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.444,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1032,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.9,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.838784217834473,
      "home_runs": 4.2914814949035645,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026081120260811_BAL@MINMIN60.0%63.8%56.9%50.0%4.0-5.05-2missEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638275,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603387,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0716,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1095
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03276653778352146
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031284844672338184
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030770119957819055
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.029378704268038364
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029245999681559144
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05288140259715341,
      "1": 0.08949142522918661,
      "2": 0.12906225471386656,
      "3": 0.1586194484784552,
      "4": 0.16613188290386965,
      "5": 0.14828215988528598,
      "6": 0.11278833450498853,
      "7": 0.07311034414815071,
      "8": 0.04038618562409967,
      "9": 0.0190119301550185,
      "10": 0.007627091340993103,
      "11": 0.002607540418932128
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08511078131506629,
      "1": 0.1399625582555303,
      "2": 0.1852150196577489,
      "3": 0.19723208580306917,
      "4": 0.16901138805302401,
      "5": 0.11654439854530081,
      "6": 0.06467015126546043,
      "7": 0.028877087184196862,
      "8": 0.01037623805206634,
      "9": 0.0030002918685368184
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0092,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.18,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1095,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_BOS@TORBOS53.0%70.8%54.8%50.0%3.0-2.03-5missEnhanced Prediction (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.707785,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627992,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2878,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.624,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0555
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02496244505166543
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024663926569323622
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023653363637570948
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023370500071892494
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.023301786031973425
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06233699062533816,
      "1": 0.1046181270765494,
      "2": 0.14715421692491434,
      "3": 0.17347749644531382,
      "4": 0.17140293047823296,
      "5": 0.1419377780880357,
      "6": 0.09851047766920434,
      "7": 0.05730222825215742,
      "8": 0.02793606666528048,
      "9": 0.011414678119119502,
      "10": 0.003909009655853937
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03222193793120651,
      "1": 0.05555387675824984,
      "2": 0.08471980746172764,
      "3": 0.11427820862118451,
      "4": 0.13634831100428818,
      "5": 0.14389442759530752,
      "6": 0.13432166424720662,
      "7": 0.11090625152474176,
      "8": 0.08099791966571473,
      "9": 0.052323836166428155,
      "10": 0.029897382269217607,
      "11": 0.015110353562761714,
      "12": 0.0067549783769802136,
      "13": 0.0026710448149849767
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 3 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "BOS 5 - 1 TOR",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0946,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.484,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -2,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0555,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_CHC@WASCHC57.0%62.3%54.1%50.0%3.0-2.08-6hitSimulation Result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.622764,
    "sample_size": 283,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5406,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581682,
    "published_confidence": 0.57,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8314,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.58,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7434
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.032731667508055416
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032151776486832914
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030072281062282366
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02953950509627314
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.028920585629995575
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08028597703899801,
      "1": 0.13260718937870047,
      "2": 0.17779995082294858,
      "3": 0.19352335997499706,
      "4": 0.17099064391338936,
      "5": 0.1226446174058826,
      "6": 0.07141046000088562,
      "7": 0.03375299860493137,
      "8": 0.012950904030693124,
      "9": 0.004033898828573712
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057448055140135054,
      "1": 0.09682597437212087,
      "2": 0.1379507159110087,
      "3": 0.1661389947497133,
      "4": 0.16913548582602278,
      "5": 0.14555040868199978,
      "6": 0.10587847083468226,
      "7": 0.06510546251972278,
      "8": 0.033840964621183,
      "9": 0.014869062138526514,
      "10": 0.005522553807711663,
      "11": 0.001733851397173354
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 3 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 2 WAS",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0141,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4633,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7434,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_CIN@CHWCHW56.4%58.2%54.6%50.0%2.0-4.05-4missSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.581549,
    "sample_size": 205,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5463,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.563924,
    "published_confidence": 0.563924,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.0128,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6205
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03456948723024833
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03455408658320304
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03391601777037322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03390090824284728
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029089699981428352
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06025627230604808,
      "1": 0.10130652764138978,
      "2": 0.14326014374693943,
      "3": 0.1703986380508068,
      "4": 0.17047458418456726,
      "5": 0.1434517809118278,
      "6": 0.1015324889660813,
      "7": 0.06044451606466871,
      "8": 0.030266455306456976,
      "9": 0.012747323312710175,
      "10": 0.004515743078978497,
      "11": 0.0013455264295250987
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.094681300638034,
      "1": 0.15434368091344944,
      "2": 0.19895058217976622,
      "3": 0.20278381904026863,
      "4": 0.1634380244337726,
      "5": 0.10416087822440824,
      "6": 0.05249136718156096,
      "7": 0.020917166753463792,
      "8": 0.006590973348020876,
      "9": 0.0016422072872553071
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CIN 1 - 6 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1355,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.108,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -2,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6205,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_CLE@DETDET58.0%88.4%54.9%50.0%2.0-6.04-6hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.884408,
    "sample_size": 153,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.716704,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9704,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.184,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0451
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02564050496790488
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024805436415668316
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023881666306058622
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02378869740276558
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023013939139440144
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02256354467120247,
      "1": 0.039264066721542,
      "2": 0.061566091141641875,
      "3": 0.086985373534543,
      "4": 0.11074120238089685,
      "5": 0.1270371044609443,
      "6": 0.1313137754747031,
      "7": 0.12230616250346844,
      "8": 0.10264664087999742,
      "9": 0.0776246210981879,
      "10": 0.05289475318361357,
      "11": 0.03247760882134211,
      "12": 0.017968583752131704,
      "13": 0.008957813160747407,
      "14": 0.0040239122496095224,
      "15": 0.0016287459654283614
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08244514991039756,
      "1": 0.13590746626064007,
      "2": 0.1811591915377404,
      "3": 0.19526134920128305,
      "4": 0.17018099237032477,
      "5": 0.11993464992256837,
      "6": 0.06834663635064096,
      "7": 0.03149404718712281,
      "8": 0.011734880081174601,
      "9": 0.0035356371781073014
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CLE 3 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CLE 2 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0115,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.834,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0451,
      "winner": "DET",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_COL@ARIARI66.0%85.6%58.3%42.0%3.0-5.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.855943,
    "sample_size": 84,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
    "empirical_weight": 0.42,
    "blended_confidence": 0.741433,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.392,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9065
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03352493296206564
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03193921396265427
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03108831255778913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029939577177960794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02852344440241861
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03286521701690962,
      "1": 0.056628890119505726,
      "2": 0.0862035463220241,
      "3": 0.11593051163130126,
      "4": 0.1377386777726,
      "5": 0.14457713154773671,
      "6": 0.13406914368331357,
      "7": 0.10983572074449308,
      "8": 0.07949574983928058,
      "9": 0.05083112870217706,
      "10": 0.02871449175074379,
      "11": 0.014330391364010793,
      "12": 0.006318303827211223,
      "13": 0.002461095678692619
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12266356601302113,
      "1": 0.19474134114436686,
      "2": 0.23188268160512182,
      "3": 0.20708376807209855,
      "4": 0.1387047680626342,
      "5": 0.06967938506535136,
      "6": 0.026253355242363136,
      "7": 0.007418787100464324,
      "8": 0.0015723476945785596
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 6 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0918,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.567,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9065,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_HOU@SFHOU66.0%83.2%58.3%42.0%7.0-2.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.831595,
    "sample_size": 84,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5833,
    "empirical_weight": 0.42,
    "blended_confidence": 0.727311,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3782,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.952,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.579
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02592483837642393
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.025485824600915596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02361457259255199
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023546625233278932
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023306003787767093
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07546875795961795,
      "1": 0.12519410306461598,
      "2": 0.17006554326213627,
      "3": 0.18917536282147945,
      "4": 0.17231719145962932,
      "5": 0.12853115990735475,
      "6": 0.07850621387834127,
      "7": 0.03926588828642648,
      "8": 0.01608209441159297,
      "9": 0.005393684948805574
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027281422844316536,
      "1": 0.04725779097463159,
      "2": 0.07309287820846867,
      "3": 0.10094201192562388,
      "4": 0.1244698299085561,
      "5": 0.13704130384509222,
      "6": 0.13472063286045338,
      "7": 0.1182529525534598,
      "8": 0.09267980647525517,
      "9": 0.0648564972784024,
      "10": 0.04052444801347405,
      "11": 0.022608719854835868,
      "12": 0.011262377584826512,
      "13": 0.005009327672603831
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 3 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "HOU 7 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.141,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.302,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 2,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.579,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_KC@LADLAD53.0%67.5%55.7%50.0%5.0-6.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.674737,
    "sample_size": 192,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5573,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.616019,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.366,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.16,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4819
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02637975403579102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026037650396494458
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025493259396966735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02516265218943171
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02342656534192684
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037125506360605465,
      "1": 0.06371851216315212,
      "2": 0.09585787439372273,
      "3": 0.12640343906432838,
      "4": 0.14610292576189315,
      "5": 0.1480225437709647,
      "6": 0.13145155898815222,
      "7": 0.10232283075532991,
      "8": 0.06981492552295518,
      "9": 0.04175350509304776,
      "10": 0.021888022513995194,
      "11": 0.01005747685370708,
      "12": 0.004050797042234412,
      "13": 0.0014300817159115518
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06588927753095837,
      "1": 0.1102304297350244,
      "2": 0.15358337660062968,
      "3": 0.17821443520527805,
      "4": 0.17222551881294826,
      "5": 0.13861431428243287,
      "6": 0.09291260061525673,
      "7": 0.05186771399244588,
      "8": 0.024114349706238217,
      "9": 0.009337055884534366,
      "10": 0.003010927634253309
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 6 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0819,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.19,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 1,
    "home_run_delta": 1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4819,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_MIL@SDMIL51.3%50.7%51.8%50.0%4.0-3.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.507321,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.51256,
    "published_confidence": 0.51256,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0312,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.4381,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.156,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8802
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.032631742869563336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03149280918176258
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03086887506152976
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029791470098741776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02855393413098635
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06947451629234096,
      "1": 0.11587437819185523,
      "2": 0.1599762519239805,
      "3": 0.18282258038673607,
      "4": 0.17294593840553132,
      "5": 0.13542446106858644,
      "6": 0.08777888919290418,
      "7": 0.04709656809601823,
      "8": 0.020916771792436253,
      "9": 0.007689644649610829
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06610472551464565,
      "1": 0.11056964246239184,
      "2": 0.15396731931605936,
      "3": 0.17848858057103978,
      "4": 0.17225885946442646,
      "5": 0.13840186524501671,
      "6": 0.09257454007845264,
      "7": 0.051550208625645265,
      "8": 0.023897833749935794,
      "9": 0.009223078139107412,
      "10": 0.002963346833279026
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2122,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.156,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8802,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_NYM@ATLATL56.4%58.8%54.0%50.0%4.0-5.00-4hitSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.587519,
    "sample_size": 237,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5401,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.563809,
    "published_confidence": 0.563809,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.4917,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.216,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0452
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03337695850529389
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03282351007161941
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031341248762911764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030821555962428325
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028680107200557636
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05763399580145195,
      "1": 0.09712334795450693,
      "2": 0.13830594011446662,
      "3": 0.16642949517585748,
      "4": 0.16923571983681945,
      "5": 0.1454206376028445,
      "6": 0.10559231959793092,
      "7": 0.0647904342173976,
      "8": 0.03359400055819297,
      "9": 0.014719221270774177,
      "10": 0.005449795641662191,
      "11": 0.001705092228095077
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0850960421653141,
      "1": 0.13994019521441708,
      "2": 0.18519287058980005,
      "3": 0.19722171263535046,
      "4": 0.16901835176345767,
      "5": 0.11656325668909374,
      "6": 0.0646901499011919,
      "7": 0.028891049365589953,
      "8": 0.010383341774664438,
      "9": 0.0030030299011208792
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 2 - 6 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1368,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1205,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0452,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_PHI@STLPHI61.0%67.2%54.8%50.0%5.0-2.00-2missEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.61035,
    "published_confidence": 0.61035,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1403,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.234
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02736060439518913
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026868313768093444
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025518382282225548
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025059238169956116
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.024449636469172187
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07172203887208013,
      "1": 0.11938107913797548,
      "2": 0.16381986616043,
      "3": 0.18533004288002408,
      "4": 0.17285155014431164,
      "5": 0.13290732714645054,
      "6": 0.08425055347890302,
      "7": 0.04402960548634273,
      "8": 0.018969899000266622,
      "9": 0.006738037693215679
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036506308932699905,
      "1": 0.06269132135563804,
      "2": 0.09447314358311489,
      "3": 0.12493115464693927,
      "4": 0.14497548994518397,
      "5": 0.14763178149643763,
      "6": 0.1319248411602645,
      "7": 0.10345101201164243,
      "8": 0.07118759994910122,
      "9": 0.0429868283227592,
      "10": 0.02277864565816947,
      "11": 0.01059209430507349,
      "12": 0.004322124003937388,
      "13": 0.001547654629038589
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 3 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 2 STL",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0911,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.758,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner_supported",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.234,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_PIT@MIAMIA60.0%67.1%56.9%50.0%2.0-3.00-2hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.670853,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.619676,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0176,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1677
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03402709250405994
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03329221749129673
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03301706395857365
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03230400229175432
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029431583529895982
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05681073619967515,
      "1": 0.09580596037892943,
      "2": 0.1367292114698872,
      "3": 0.16513409806591348,
      "4": 0.16877918185931215,
      "5": 0.14598480867582678,
      "6": 0.1068570355543871,
      "7": 0.06619196097834472,
      "8": 0.03469876697548162,
      "9": 0.015393221059715636,
      "10": 0.005778985958079508,
      "11": 0.0018360328244475452
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09227837302473507,
      "1": 0.1507593403333806,
      "2": 0.19562284634188717,
      "3": 0.20160716581991506,
      "4": 0.16502259061491195,
      "5": 0.10728324036232917,
      "6": 0.05539510752212337,
      "7": 0.02271757562631338,
      "8": 0.007399520893664523,
      "9": 0.0019142394607397101
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 2 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0334,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.6287,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": -1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1677,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_SEA@NYYNYY60.0%63.9%56.9%50.0%2.0-3.01-4hitSimulation Result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638559,
    "sample_size": 146,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5685,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.603529,
    "published_confidence": 0.6,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0409,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0409,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9877,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.448,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7988
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.046827737065534454
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04278142683842544
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.041702945359032316
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.040832377643686045
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.039282111396728187
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0790401553126241,
      "1": 0.130696629470604,
      "2": 0.17583148427173206,
      "3": 0.1924618022773354,
      "4": 0.17139892992992728,
      "5": 0.12419019694459338,
      "6": 0.07321198416002578,
      "7": 0.03511500139907254,
      "8": 0.013703100873472046,
      "9": 0.004350715360613319
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.13531775037097699,
      "1": 0.21215834602258907,
      "2": 0.24330925155764774,
      "3": 0.20410341653209235,
      "4": 0.12523769798663695,
      "5": 0.056209927840619164,
      "6": 0.018453728606397844,
      "7": 0.00443147578699528,
      "8": 0.0007784052960445592
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "SEA 2 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 1 - 5 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0393,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.5647,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": -1,
    "home_run_delta": 2,
    "total_run_delta": 1,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.7988,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_TB@OAKTB66.0%92.0%54.5%50.0%5.0-1.0Official result pendingpending_actualEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 473,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5455,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.73275,
    "published_confidence": 0.66,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0958,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.2,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.7823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.038700392401018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.03825019683781073
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03499588470425254
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.034023743403566065
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.033788732032843584
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.22471692408938462,
      "1": 0.2842024213019849,
      "2": 0.24985871349450603,
      "3": 0.15269891781451458,
      "4": 0.06487123302466817,
      "5": 0.019157687296997482,
      "6": 0.003932862305168073,
      "7": 0.0005612406727759921
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026779026249101192,
      "1": 0.04641020802223993,
      "2": 0.07188729853302689,
      "3": 0.09952008224893705,
      "4": 0.12313717998576433,
      "5": 0.13617193063916977,
      "6": 0.13458786403922726,
      "7": 0.11888966982776229,
      "8": 0.09386469115389479,
      "9": 0.06623389639968585,
      "10": 0.04177132656145157,
      "11": 0.02354486178151351,
      "12": 0.01186134497924866,
      "13": 0.005340619578976952
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "score_text": "TB 5 - 1 OAK",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1481,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.55,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
      "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 1
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.7823,
      "winner": "TB",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026081120260811_TEX@LAATEX53.5%55.3%51.8%50.0%5.0-4.0Official result pendingpending_actualSimulation Result (4.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.553156,
    "sample_size": 197,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5178,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.535478,
    "published_confidence": 0.535478,
    "published_after_governors": true
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ]
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6695,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.444,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5906
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03274336710667906
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03155134092433702
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03092319087504303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02979742842536837
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028685537915928472
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06973735224165313,
      "1": 0.11628522662025803,
      "2": 0.16042951026652008,
      "3": 0.18312371777014935,
      "4": 0.17294402435474435,
      "5": 0.13513478324690123,
      "6": 0.08736336689347944,
      "7": 0.04672961482968799,
      "8": 0.02068024428801111,
      "9": 0.007572159488595337
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06635456191657986,
      "1": 0.11096282919505585,
      "2": 0.15441168875225794,
      "3": 0.17880462184465595,
      "4": 0.17229521827390587,
      "5": 0.13815405133956937,
      "6": 0.09218280984443805,
      "7": 0.05118375865530312,
      "8": 0.023648866213236624,
      "9": 0.009092522620855461,
      "10": 0.0029090713441421536
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "TEX 7 - 2 LAA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1032,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.394,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": true,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 3,
    "home_run_delta": -1,
    "total_run_delta": 2,
    "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
    "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": true,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
      "score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5906,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}