Continuous postgame learning
daily_20260810 · dates 20260810 · generated 2026-08-11T02:44:33.695754+00:00
0-3
Winner picks · 0.0%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning
Slate coverage
Every discovered review date is listed here, including latest-execution reviews when no canonical review exists. A zero-game row is therefore visible instead of silently disappearing.
| Date | Games | Settled | Pending | Hits | Misses | Calibration traces | Pipeline versions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260810 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
Prioritized optimization roadmap
Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.
| Priority | Change | Status | Observed games | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | empirical_confidence_blend | implemented_and_monitored | 10 | {
"applied_games": 10,
"formula": "w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate"
} |
| P1 | h2h_base_feature | implemented_and_monitored | 10 | {
"available_games": 6
} |
| P2 | score_distribution_widening | implemented_above_1.4x | 10 | {
"variance_multipliers": [
1.65
]
} |
| P2 | simulation_flip_control | diagnostic_only_without_independent_support | 10 | {
"simulation_flip_candidates": 0,
"published_flips": 0
} |
| P3 | recent_form_quality_blend | implemented_last_10 | 10 | {
"last_10_games": 10
} |
| P3 | continuous_calibration_audit | implemented | 10 | {
"metric": "bucket_calibration_error"
} |
Confidence calibration by bucket
bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.55.
| Bucket | Games | Average confidence | Observed hit rate | Calibration error | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 | 2 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 53.5% | overconfident |
| 0.55-0.60 | 1 | 58.0% | 0.0% | 58.0% | overconfident |
Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality
Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.
| Stage | Games | Team-run MAE | Total-run MAE | Margin MAE | Winner accuracy | Δ team MAE vs base | Δ margin MAE vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3 | 2.5187 | 5.0375 | 3.2922 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| variance_applied | 3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 3.6667 | 0.0% | -0.0187 | 0.3745 |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 2.6667 | 5.3333 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.148 | 0.7078 |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 2.6667 | 5.3333 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.148 | 0.7078 |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 2.6667 | 5.3333 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.148 | 0.7078 |
| capped_target | 3 | 2.6667 | 5.3333 | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.148 | 0.7078 |
| simulation_result | 3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.3333 | 0.0% | -0.0187 | 1.0411 |
| published_final | 3 | 2.3333 | 4.6667 | 4.0 | 0.0% | -0.1854 | 0.7078 |
Largest measured regression
{
"stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"games": 3,
"team_run_mae": 2.6667,
"total_run_mae": 5.3333,
"margin_mae": 4.0,
"winner_hits": 0,
"winner_accuracy": 0.0,
"team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.148,
"margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.7078
}Automatic questions
Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?
partial_attribution sample=3
Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.
| Stage | Total Toward Pick Run Delta | Games |
|---|---|---|
| variance_applied | 1.1234 | 3 |
| enhanced_prediction | 1.0 | 3 |
| simulation_result | 1.0 | 3 |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 0.0 | 3 |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 0.0 | 3 |
| capped_target | 0.0 | 3 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "partial_attribution",
"sample_size": 3,
"top_stage": "variance_applied",
"ranking": [
{
"stage": "variance_applied",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1234,
"games": 3
},
{
"stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
"games": 3
},
{
"stage": "simulation_result",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
"games": 3
},
{
"stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 3
},
{
"stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 3
},
{
"stage": "capped_target",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 3
}
],
"interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?
insufficient_sample sample=0
No settled hit predictions were available.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 0,
"top_stage": null,
"reason": "No settled hit predictions were available.",
"ranking": []
}Are Overs performing worse than Unders?
not_measurable sample=0
The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
"missing_fields": [
"total_line",
"total_selection",
"odds",
"settled_result"
]
}Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?
not_measurable sample=0
Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
"missing_fields": [
"prop_family",
"prop_line",
"selection",
"odds",
"settled_result"
]
}Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?
not_measurable sample=0
No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
"missing_fields": [
"sportsbook",
"selection_odds",
"settled_profit"
],
"books": []
}Which confidence ranges underperform?
insufficient_sample sample=3
| Range | Sample Size | Hits | Misses | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [0.000, 0.525) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| [0.525, 0.550) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 |
| [0.550, 0.600) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| [0.600, 1.010) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 3,
"minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
"worst_observed_range": {
"range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
"sample_size": 2,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 2,
"accuracy": 0.0
},
"ranges": [
{
"range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
"sample_size": 0,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 0,
"accuracy": null
},
{
"range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
"sample_size": 2,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 2,
"accuracy": 0.0
},
{
"range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
"sample_size": 1,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 1,
"accuracy": 0.0
},
{
"range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
"sample_size": 0,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 0,
"accuracy": null
}
]
}Which monitored features are drifting?
insufficient_sample sample=10
Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.
| Date | Sample Size | Mean Confidence | Mean Predicted Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260810 | 10 | 0.5892 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 10,
"minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
"minimum_recent_sample": 20,
"reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
"daily_monitors": [
{
"date": "20260810",
"sample_size": 10,
"mean_confidence": 0.5892,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.7,
"accuracy": 0.0
}
],
"features_monitored": [
"confidence",
"predicted_total",
"winner_accuracy"
]
}Which model version introduced errors?
insufficient_sample sample=3
Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.
| Pipeline Version | Model Schema Version | Policy Version | Sample Size | Hits | Misses | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | historical_game_temporal_v7 | model_winner_simulation_score_v1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 3,
"minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
"versions": [
{
"pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"sample_size": 3,
"hits": 0,
"misses": 3,
"accuracy": 0.0
}
],
"reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}Every reviewed game
| Date | Game | Pick | Final confidence | Raw confidence | Empirical hit rate | Empirical weight | Pred A-H | Actual A-H | Result | Largest recorded movement | Pipeline | Roadmap signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260810 | 20260810_BAL@MIN | BAL | 58.0% | 63.2% | 54.7% | 50.0% | 5.0-4.0 | 5-9 | miss | variance_applied (0.6642) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.631884,
"sample_size": 276,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5471,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.589492,
"published_confidence": 0.58,
"published_after_governors": true
},
"h2h_base_feature": {
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 3,
"sample_weight": 0.0409,
"home_net_margin": 0.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
"home_average_margin": 0.0,
"home_run_delta": 0.0,
"away_run_delta": -0.0,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 3.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
}
]
},
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -0.0079,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.056,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.0248
},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.026646801417979947
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.026401560339385555
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.025571169628902855
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.025335828016138748
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.02404762464694318
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.058838111426659234,
"1": 0.09904667230077892,
"2": 0.14059368984839624,
"3": 0.16828156586399487,
"4": 0.16984471410938376,
"5": 0.1445480714175147,
"6": 0.10373309679910042,
"7": 0.06277217262791517,
"8": 0.03203035506325178,
"9": 0.013781646970493599,
"10": 0.005000175688976555,
"11": 0.0015297278835348872
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.04390329214341264,
"1": 0.07489833578224238,
"2": 0.11065724540714737,
"3": 0.14158594674577848,
"4": 0.15688920057187541,
"5": 0.1505561698695813,
"6": 0.12512286279767443,
"7": 0.09005490945665731,
"8": 0.056132026586254276,
"9": 0.030300281091960986,
"10": 0.014164955009294327,
"11": 0.005734774538121159
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
},
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BAL 5 - 4 MIN",
"winner": "BAL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BAL 5 - 4 MIN",
"winner": "BAL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0293,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1727,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "BAL",
"model_winner": "BAL",
"simulation_winner": "BAL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.0248,
"winner": "BAL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
} |
| 20260810 | 20260810_BOS@TOR | BOS | 54.0% | 83.3% | 54.8% | 50.0% | 4.0-2.0 | 1-2 | miss | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.83299,
"sample_size": 168,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5476,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.690295,
"published_confidence": 0.54,
"published_after_governors": true
},
"h2h_base_feature": {
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 3.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
"home_average_margin": 0.6,
"home_run_delta": 0.0173,
"away_run_delta": -0.0173,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 3.0
}
]
},
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -1.3284,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.748,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -1.1252
},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.029130666470536297
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.028089024578115126
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.027809319293442908
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02681492556733077
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 6,
"probability": 0.02661874119073052
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.0887202465052124,
"1": 0.1454192075976581,
"2": 0.19054665180738875,
"3": 0.1996003894344603,
"4": 0.16714829879625032,
"5": 0.11189818735967544,
"6": 0.059885910410646344,
"7": 0.025621631178256856,
"8": 0.00876333488766161,
"9": 0.0023961420227898073
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.0343046920277549,
"1": 0.05903016087091324,
"2": 0.08949890852440007,
"3": 0.11955970679038999,
"4": 0.14072630147516965,
"5": 0.14594493804883826,
"6": 0.13336016661165337,
"7": 0.1073708898636127,
"8": 0.07616760600734372,
"9": 0.0476077206657552,
"10": 0.02621849765967492,
"11": 0.012722180307578438,
"12": 0.005439244989299968,
"13": 0.0020489861576155227
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
},
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "BOS 5 - 3 TOR",
"winner": "BOS"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "BOS 5 - 2 TOR",
"winner": "BOS"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0695,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.6313,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": -1,
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner": "BOS",
"model_winner": "BOS",
"simulation_winner": "BOS",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": true,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 3,
"simulation_usage": "same_winner_margin_capped",
"score_source": "simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 3,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.1252,
"winner": "BOS",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
} |
| 20260810 | 20260810_COL@ARI | ARI | 56.9% | 56.0% | 57.9% | 50.0% | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.56,
"sample_size": 140,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5786,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.5693,
"published_confidence": 0.5693,
"published_after_governors": true
},
"h2h_base_feature": {
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 11.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
"home_average_margin": 2.2,
"home_run_delta": 0.0635,
"away_run_delta": -0.0635,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 8.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 2.0
}
]
},
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 1.1836,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.212,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.8435
},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.03299045111413135
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
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| 20260810 | 20260810_PHI@STL | STL | 62.3% | 67.2% | 57.5% | 50.0% | 2.0-3.0 | - | pending_actual | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260810 | 20260810_TB@OAK | TB | 66.0% | 92.0% | 54.9% | 50.0% | 6.0-2.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (4.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260810 | 20260810_TEX@LAA | LAA | 51.8% | 51.0% | 52.6% | 50.0% | 5.0-6.0 | - | pending_actual | variance_applied (0.3519) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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} |
Starting-pitcher component quality
| H | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| R | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| ER | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| BB | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| SO | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| HR | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| IP_outs | {
"mae_outs": null,
"mae_innings": null,
"bias_outs": null
} | ||
IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.
| Date | Game | Side | Pred starter | Actual starter | Match | Pred IP | Actual IP | Δ outs | Pred ER | Actual ER | Δ ER | H P/A | BB P/A | SO P/A | All context |
|---|