Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260809 · dates 20260809 · generated 2026-08-10T00:37:07.741207+00:00

9-5
Winner picks · 64.3%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml142.47613.13094.035757.1%0.00.0
variance_applied142.53.28574.042.9%0.0239-0.0357
enhanced_prediction142.35713.85713.285771.4%-0.119-0.75
embedded_savant_run_environment142.35713.85713.428664.3%-0.119-0.6071
fundamental_edge_target_review142.35713.85713.571464.3%-0.119-0.4643
capped_target142.35713.85713.571464.3%-0.119-0.4643
simulation_result142.46433.92863.642964.3%-0.0118-0.3928
published_final142.46433.92863.642964.3%-0.0118-0.3928
simulation_drift_review14.02.08.00.0%1.52393.9643
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "simulation_drift_review",
  "games": 1,
  "team_run_mae": 4.0,
  "total_run_mae": 2.0,
  "margin_mae": 8.0,
  "winner_hits": 0,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 1.5239,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 3.9643
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
simulation_result7.05
fundamental_edge_target_review2.05
embedded_savant_run_environment1.05
capped_target0.05
simulation_drift_review0.01
variance_applied-1.28735
enhanced_prediction-2.05
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "simulation_result",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_drift_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 1
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.2873,
      "games": 5
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "games": 5
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?

partial_attribution sample=9

Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StageTotal Toward Pick Run DeltaGames
enhanced_prediction6.09
embedded_savant_run_environment5.09
simulation_result2.09
fundamental_edge_target_review0.09
capped_target0.09
variance_applied-0.63699
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "games": 9
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "total_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.6369,
      "games": 9
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=14

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)2020.0
[0.525, 0.550)4310.75
[0.550, 0.600)6510.8333
[0.600, 1.010)2110.5
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8333
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260809150.55276.80.6429
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260809",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5527,
      "mean_predicted_total": 6.8,
      "accuracy": 0.6429
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=14

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v7model_winner_simulation_score_v114950.6429
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 14,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
      "policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
      "sample_size": 14,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6429
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Every settled game

DateGamePickConfidencePred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipeline
2026080920260809_ATL@NYYNYY51.0%3.0-4.02-1missenhanced_prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_BAL@TEXTEX57.0%3.0-5.010-5misssimulation_result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_CHC@KCCHC53.0%4.0-2.010-2hitenhanced_prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_CIN@WASWAS57.0%2.0-4.01-7hitsimulation_result (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_CLE@CHWCHW56.0%2.0-3.03-5hitvariance_applied (0.2383)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_COL@STLSTL66.0%4.0-6.04-7hitenhanced_prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_DET@SFDET56.0%5.0-3.03-1hitenhanced_prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_HOU@SDHOU51.0%4.0-3.0-pending_actualenhanced_prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_LAA@MIAMIA56.0%1.0-6.03-12hitsimulation_result (3.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_LAD@ARILAD53.0%7.0-1.02-4misssimulation_result (5.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_MIN@MILMIL56.0%2.0-4.03-4hitenhanced_prediction (-2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_NYM@PITPIT60.0%3.0-4.011-1missvariance_applied (-0.1492)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_OAK@BOSBOS51.0%1.0-3.04-3missenhanced_prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_TB@SEATB53.0%4.0-3.04-1hitenhanced_prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
2026080920260809_TOR@PHIPHI53.0%2.0-4.06-7hitembedded_savant_run_environment (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
R
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
ER
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
BB
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
SO
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
HR
{
  "mae": null,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": null,
  "mae_innings": null,
  "bias_outs": null
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context