MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-10-09 05:18:30. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
108Pass
1Info

20261008_CLE@CHW

20261008_CLE@CHW__20261009T003924Z.json • 2026-10-08

CLE 5 - CHW 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 108INFO 1

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentCHWBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCLEBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHWBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCLEBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CLE PA=39 matches CHW BF=39.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLERUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.506 -> 0.526 at weight 0.450.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.506495, 'sample_size': 571, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5499, 'empirical_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_max_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_sample_scale': 200.0, 'blended_confidence': 0.526027, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHW current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCLE current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CLE 6, CHW 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - CHW 4.
PASSkpiLUNA_KPI_TRACELuna KPI trace coherent (no_promoted_kpis).
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 14, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261007', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535129, 'artifact': '20261007_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20261005', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5185, 'artifact': '20261005_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20261003', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5229980000000001, 'artifact': '20261003_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only'}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-08.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261008_CLE@CHW__20261009T003924Z, game_id=20261008_CLE@CHW.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CHW.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02104144036995725}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02021519902748303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02008076628165565}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01967980397901703}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01951169966886091}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.062047030815691795, '1': 0.09133807824158416, '2': 0.11978568715517415, '3': 0.13995234508474366, '4': 0.14567251698748013, '5': 0.13508193125053283, '6': 0.1115935492546071, '7': 0.08213024396284029, '8': 0.053850448884133796, '9': 0.0314555827554185, '10': 0.016369233199743146, '11': 0.007588940168275316, '12': 0.003134412239775193}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.060592352614690516, '1': 0.08928173969288443, '2': 0.11742419497162294, '3': 0.13784869443411552, '4': 0.14444344619764937, '5': 0.13509620336077818, '6': 0.11278168145877458, '7': 0.08403962477505829, '8': 0.055895875457698856, '9': 0.03318375581463857, '10': 0.017584152181858034, '11': 0.008317014274801904, '12': 0.003511264765428741}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1605}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLEPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLESTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLEPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLESTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWRECENT_FORM_RANGECHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLERECENT_FORM_RANGECLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLETEAM_RECENT_RECORDCLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentCHWBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCLEBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHWBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCLEBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHWBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCLEBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHWRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLEPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CLE PA=39 matches CHW BF=39.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCLERUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.506 -> 0.526 at weight 0.450.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.506495, 'sample_size': 571, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5499, 'empirical_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_max_weight': 0.45, 'empirical_sample_scale': 200.0, 'blended_confidence': 0.526027, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHW current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHWCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCLE current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCLECURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHWCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHW current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASScurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCLECURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.692/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CLE 6, CHW 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - CHW 4.
PASSkpiLUNA_KPI_TRACELuna KPI trace coherent (no_promoted_kpis).
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 14, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261007', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535129, 'artifact': '20261007_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20261005', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5185, 'artifact': '20261005_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20261003', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5229980000000001, 'artifact': '20261003_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only'}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-08.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261008_CLE@CHW__20261009T003924Z, game_id=20261008_CLE@CHW.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CHW.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02104144036995725}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02021519902748303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02008076628165565}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01967980397901703}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01951169966886091}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.062047030815691795, '1': 0.09133807824158416, '2': 0.11978568715517415, '3': 0.13995234508474366, '4': 0.14567251698748013, '5': 0.13508193125053283, '6': 0.1115935492546071, '7': 0.08213024396284029, '8': 0.053850448884133796, '9': 0.0314555827554185, '10': 0.016369233199743146, '11': 0.007588940168275316, '12': 0.003134412239775193}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.060592352614690516, '1': 0.08928173969288443, '2': 0.11742419497162294, '3': 0.13784869443411552, '4': 0.14444344619764937, '5': 0.13509620336077818, '6': 0.11278168145877458, '7': 0.08403962477505829, '8': 0.055895875457698856, '9': 0.03318375581463857, '10': 0.017584152181858034, '11': 0.008317014274801904, '12': 0.003511264765428741}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1605}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHWPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCLEPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHWSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLEPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCLESTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHWSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLEPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCLESTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHWPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCLEPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWRECENT_FORM_RANGECHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHWTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHW wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLERECENT_FORM_RANGECLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCLETEAM_RECENT_RECORDCLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.7119185019258035.140895541166179Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction540.505Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
kpi_layer5.04.0Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
embedded_savant_run_environment54Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review54Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target54Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result54Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
CLE00020120056
CHW10201000048
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentCLEbatting34601255580000
currentCLEpitching8144109.0300
currentCHWbatting368111344100000
currentCHWpitching625589.0500
simulationCLEbatting346012555800
simulationCLEpitching8144109.0340161
simulationCHWbatting3681113441000
simulationCHWpitching625589.0539163
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentCLECFSteven Kwan050000000000.000
currentCLE3BJosé Ramírez040000001100.000
currentCLERFChase DeLauter052000100100.400
currentCLEDHJo Adell041000100100.250
currentCLE1BNathaniel Lowe032011221100.667
currentCLELFAngel Martínez031001121000.333
currentCLE2BTravis Bazzana040000010100.000
currentCLECAustin Hedges030000001100.000
currentCLESSBrayan Rocchio030000001200.000
currentCHW2BChase Meidroth041000101100.250
currentCHWLFRandal Grichuk053100100000.600
currentCHW3BMiguel Vargas041000101100.250
currentCHW1BMunetaka Murakami031001112200.333
currentCHWDHTommy Pham040000010100.000
currentCHWCFBrenton Doyle040000000000.000
currentCHWCKyle Teel041000010100.250
currentCHWRFBraden Montgomery041010000200.250
currentCHWSSColson Montgomery040000000200.000
simulationCLE1CFSteven Kwan550000000000.000
simulationCLE23BJosé Ramírez540000001100.000
simulationCLE3RFChase DeLauter552000100100.400
simulationCLE4DHJo Adell441000100100.250
simulationCLE51BNathaniel Lowe432011221100.667
simulationCLE6LFAngel Martínez431001121000.333
simulationCLE72BTravis Bazzana440000010100.000
simulationCLE8CAustin Hedges430000001100.000
simulationCLE9SSBrayan Rocchio430000001200.000
simulationCHW12BChase Meidroth541000101100.250
simulationCHW2LFRandal Grichuk553100100000.600
simulationCHW33BMiguel Vargas541000101100.250
simulationCHW41BMunetaka Murakami531001112200.333
simulationCHW5DHTommy Pham440000010100.000
simulationCHW6CFBrenton Doyle440000000000.000
simulationCHW7CKyle Teel441000010100.250
simulationCHW8RFBraden Montgomery441010000200.250
simulationCHW9SSColson Montgomery440000000200.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentCLE1Parker MessickStarter5.0543341005.402.601.07
currentCLE3Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0100010000.002.911.26
currentCLE4Erik SabrowskiSetup Man1.0100020000.002.841.09
currentCLE5Cade SmithCloser2.0100130000.001.850.91
currentCHW1Hagen SmithStarter2.2100130000.001.050.99
currentCHW5Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0111020009.003.831.50
currentCHW6Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0111211009.002.621.16
currentCHW7Anthony KaySetup Man2.0222210009.004.391.38
currentCHW8Grant TaylorCloser2.1111011003.862.401.03
simulationCLE1Parker MessickStarter5.054334124975.402.601.07
simulationCLE2Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01000104140.002.911.26
simulationCLE3Erik SabrowskiSetup Man1.01000204160.002.841.09
simulationCLE4Cade SmithCloser2.01001308340.001.850.91
simulationCHW1Hagen SmithStarter2.210013010380.001.050.99
simulationCHW2Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01110204169.003.831.50
simulationCHW3Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01112117269.002.621.16
simulationCHW4Anthony KaySetup Man2.022221010539.004.391.38
simulationCHW5Grant TaylorCloser2.11110118303.862.401.03
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
CLEParker MessickStarter5.045342497
CLETim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.00101414
CLEErik SabrowskiSetup Man1.00102416
CLECade SmithCloser2.00113834
CHWHagen SmithStarter2.201131038
CHWJordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01102416
CHWBryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01121726
CHWAnthony KaySetup Man2.022211053
CHWGrant TaylorCloser2.11101830
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXgood0004Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONnot triggered0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXgood0002Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEgood0001Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXgood0001Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.