MLB JSON Audit Report

20261005_CHW@CLE

20261005_CHW@CLE.json • 2026-10-05

CHW 4 - CLE 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 104INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=11, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=34 matches CHW BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.540 -> 0.552 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539822, 'sample_size': 821, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5639, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.551861, 'published_confidence': 0.5185, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.523/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			GAME_ENDING_COHERENT	The game ends coherently for its score.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 10, CLE 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 12, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5229980000000001, 'artifact': '20261003_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.049, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-05.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261005_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01744160494745018}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017375707797229457}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017334799164934776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017269305543902796}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015876983281940128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.048314403764278285, '1': 0.07175173601017976, '2': 0.09661848868951951, '3': 0.11796688312224266, '4': 0.13059664125373613, '5': 0.13109192735013284, '6': 0.11931414339498507, '7': 0.09846456002099437, '8': 0.07367836837057504, '9': 0.04998872879225278, '10': 0.030752202373672564, '11': 0.017153486031480765, '12': 0.008675621581975525, '13': 0.003978513588860975, '14': 0.0016542956551136854}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05009797024117762, '1': 0.07431848632840023, '2': 0.0997441633368908, '3': 0.12111335612248927, '4': 0.13304865753377382, '5': 0.13223391794855024, '6': 0.11890199614517424, '7': 0.09672736041242856, '8': 0.07119072868340738, '9': 0.0474036137658919, '10': 0.028557052144400165, '11': 0.015564286235275058, '12': 0.007674656641990396, '13': 0.003423754460150115}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.049, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching			PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOX	Published pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=34 matches CHW BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.540 -> 0.552 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539822, 'sample_size': 821, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5639, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.551861, 'published_confidence': 0.5185, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.523/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			GAME_ENDING_COHERENT	The game ends coherently for its score.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 10, CLE 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 12, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20261003', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5229980000000001, 'artifact': '20261003_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.049, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-05.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261005_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01744160494745018}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017375707797229457}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017334799164934776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017269305543902796}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015876983281940128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.048314403764278285, '1': 0.07175173601017976, '2': 0.09661848868951951, '3': 0.11796688312224266, '4': 0.13059664125373613, '5': 0.13109192735013284, '6': 0.11931414339498507, '7': 0.09846456002099437, '8': 0.07367836837057504, '9': 0.04998872879225278, '10': 0.030752202373672564, '11': 0.017153486031480765, '12': 0.008675621581975525, '13': 0.003978513588860975, '14': 0.0016542956551136854}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05009797024117762, '1': 0.07431848632840023, '2': 0.0997441633368908, '3': 0.12111335612248927, '4': 0.13304865753377382, '5': 0.13223391794855024, '6': 0.11890199614517424, '7': 0.09672736041242856, '8': 0.07119072868340738, '9': 0.0474036137658919, '10': 0.028557052144400165, '11': 0.015564286235275058, '12': 0.007674656641990396, '13': 0.003423754460150115}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.049, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1605, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching			PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOX	Published pitcher lines cover the outs the box recorded.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=11, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.052590122814054	4.657560154846704		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.518	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	4	10
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	11	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		9			1		5	1	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	CLE	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		10			1		4	1	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	37	10	5	0	1	4	4	1	6	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		9			1		5	1	6					8.0	5	34	133
simulation	CLE	batting	33	9	3	0	1	5	5	1	6	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		10			1		4	1	6					9.0	4	38	157

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Jo Adell	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	5	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	2	C	Kyle Teel	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	6	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	8	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	DH	Jo Adell	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	LF	Angel Martínez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	3	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	3	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.2	5	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	1.93	4.39	1.38
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	4	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.62	1.16
current	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.11
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	0	6	1	0	0	4.76	3.76	1.11
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.92	0.95
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.52	1.06
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.82	1.20
simulation	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.2	5	1	1	1	4	0	20	78	1.93	4.39	1.38
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	4	4	4	0	1	1	8	29	27.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.62	1.16
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.77	1.11
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	0	6	1	23	98	4.76	3.76	1.11
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	1.92	0.95
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.82	1.20
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	6	23	6.75	2.52	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.2	1	5	1	4	20	78
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	4	4	0	1	8	29
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	3	6	0	6	23	98
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	0	0	6	23
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENT	good	1	The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACE	not triggered	0	Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOX	good	1	Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20261005_NYY@TB

20261005_NYY@TB.json • 2026-10-05

NYY 4 - TB 2

ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 40.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
ERROR	Matchup Recency Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 1E / 0W	-	Matchup recency guardrail cap was violated: cap=0.540, allowed=0.532, target_confidence=0.540.