MLB JSON Audit Report

20261003_ATL@LAD

20261003_ATL@LAD.json • 2026-10-03

ATL 4 - LAD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597692, 'sample_size': 459, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5817, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.589696, 'published_confidence': 0.546692, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.552/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 9, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020286602876242513}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019844809488443825}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833664882420794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01940173539406224}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018704375468971954}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052919983399183614, '1': 0.07836158878234728, '2': 0.10459581148303007, '3': 0.12584990209090946, '4': 0.13649570871625613, '5': 0.13344817567938594, '6': 0.11760717330278227, '7': 0.09342917414207082, '8': 0.06690502473180449, '9': 0.04318793992986577, '10': 0.025130074098572937, '11': 0.013181127990904703, '12': 0.0062321645628381364, '13': 0.002656151090048298}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06596937904702013, '1': 0.0968621198279498, '2': 0.12605182833747278, '3': 0.1453877903934454, '4': 0.14862447374381416, '5': 0.13465929312730648, '6': 0.10813491363944308, '7': 0.07696249740114328, '8': 0.04854851753850212, '9': 0.02714290963653067, '10': 0.013449942744312465, '11': 0.005907015046905457, '12': 0.0022993195161541756}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597692, 'sample_size': 459, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5817, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.589696, 'published_confidence': 0.546692, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.453.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.547.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.552/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 9, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-08-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260827', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.560841, 'artifact': '20260827_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5486690000000001, 'artifact': '20260826_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5545089999999999, 'artifact': '20260825_LAD@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020286602876242513}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019844809488443825}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833664882420794}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01940173539406224}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018704375468971954}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052919983399183614, '1': 0.07836158878234728, '2': 0.10459581148303007, '3': 0.12584990209090946, '4': 0.13649570871625613, '5': 0.13344817567938594, '6': 0.11760717330278227, '7': 0.09342917414207082, '8': 0.06690502473180449, '9': 0.04318793992986577, '10': 0.025130074098572937, '11': 0.013181127990904703, '12': 0.0062321645628381364, '13': 0.002656151090048298}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06596937904702013, '1': 0.0968621198279498, '2': 0.12605182833747278, '3': 0.1453877903934454, '4': 0.14862447374381416, '5': 0.13465929312730648, '6': 0.10813491363944308, '7': 0.07696249740114328, '8': 0.04854851753850212, '9': 0.02714290963653067, '10': 0.013449942744312465, '11': 0.005907015046905457, '12': 0.0022993195161541756}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5802, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.664, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6096}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0282, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.314, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6096, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.547.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.4669950633445845	5.887453590703506		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.547	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	4	9
LAD	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5			2		5	4	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	36	9	0	2	1	4	4	3	9	0	2
simulation	ATL	pitching		6			2		5	5	9					8.0	5	35	159
simulation	LAD	batting	30	6	1	0	2	5	5	5	9	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	41	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.333
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	7	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	4	3	3	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1.000
simulation	LAD	1	SS	Mookie Betts	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	C	Will Smith	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Tommy Edman	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Dylan Dodd	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	3	7	1	0	0	4.76	2.68	0.91
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.50	1.11
current	ATL	3	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	2.47	1.08
current	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	5	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	1.42	2.72	0.96
current	LAD	2	Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.66	1.14
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	2.69	0.99
current	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	3.46	1.08
simulation	ATL	1	Dylan Dodd	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	3	7	1	23	104	3.18	2.68	0.91
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	5	28	6.75	2.47	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	1	7	27	18.00	2.50	1.11
simulation	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	5	1	1	1	7	0	27	111	1.42	2.72	0.96
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	5	20	18.00	2.69	0.99
simulation	LAD	3	Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	22	0.00	3.66	1.14
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	4	14	27.00	3.46	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Dylan Dodd	Starter	5.2	2	3	3	7	23	104
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	7	27
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	28
LAD	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	1	5	1	7	27	111
LAD	Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	22
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	5	20
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	2	1	1	4	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_CHW@CLE

20261003_CHW@CLE.json • 2026-10-03

CHW 4 - CLE 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Fry: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=42 matches CLE BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 816, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5363, 'published_confidence': 0.522998, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.477.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.787/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 7, CLE 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 11, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024123071990349864}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023947733670324038}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023626350419972117}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023454622515970646}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021564449350636655}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07527066869262464, '1': 0.10984503663694313, '2': 0.14034756752826408, '3': 0.1569998111291837, '4': 0.15376700592243828, '5': 0.13185511270545647, '6': 0.0989921094020718, '7': 0.06506897582890725, '8': 0.03744701042906975, '9': 0.01886818476210655, '10': 0.00832363211363857, '11': 0.003214884849295648}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07239621156605851, '1': 0.10585436186611731, '2': 0.136034157903003, '3': 0.15365032490708377, '4': 0.1525335189774158, '5': 0.13308937714838545, '6': 0.1020628736012266, '7': 0.06879208733811652, '8': 0.04075261476169347, '9': 0.021218699733757104, '10': 0.009710203942530603, '11': 0.003905568254611897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.523.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=42 matches CLE BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 816, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5625, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5363, 'published_confidence': 0.522998, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.523.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.477.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.787/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 7, CLE 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 11, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260916', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556513, 'artifact': '20260916_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260915', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544573, 'artifact': '20260915_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260914', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505654, 'artifact': '20260914_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024123071990349864}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023947733670324038}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023626350419972117}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023454622515970646}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021564449350636655}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07527066869262464, '1': 0.10984503663694313, '2': 0.14034756752826408, '3': 0.1569998111291837, '4': 0.15376700592243828, '5': 0.13185511270545647, '6': 0.0989921094020718, '7': 0.06506897582890725, '8': 0.03744701042906975, '9': 0.01886818476210655, '10': 0.00832363211363857, '11': 0.003214884849295648}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07239621156605851, '1': 0.10585436186611731, '2': 0.136034157903003, '3': 0.15365032490708377, '4': 0.1525335189774158, '5': 0.13308937714838545, '6': 0.1020628736012266, '7': 0.06879208733811652, '8': 0.04075261476169347, '9': 0.021218699733757104, '10': 0.009710203942530603, '11': 0.003905568254611897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2685, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.04, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1605}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 2 CLE', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0059, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.03, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1605, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 2 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.523.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Fry: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.879317721946314	3.620441997905461		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.523	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CHW	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	7
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	32	7	2	0	1	4	5	3	11	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		5			1		2	2	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	CLE	batting	32	7	2	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		7			0		4	3	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	37	7	4	0	0	4	4	3	5	0	2
simulation	CHW	pitching		5			1		2	2	9					10.0	2	37	145
simulation	CLE	batting	35	5	0	0	1	2	2	2	9	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		7			0		4	3	5					10.0	4	42	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHW		LF	Randal Grichuk	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Tommy Pham	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Jo Adell	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		1B	David Fry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	2B	Chase Meidroth	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	2	LF	Randal Grichuk	5	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	5	DH	Tommy Pham	5	2	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.500
simulation	CHW	6	CF	Brenton Doyle	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	C	Kyle Teel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	9	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	4	DH	Jo Adell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	LF	Angel Martínez	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	1B	David Fry	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	8	C	Austin Hedges	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Hagen Smith	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	0.00	0.87	0.90
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.11
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.62	1.16
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.83	1.50
current	CHW	6	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		2.56	1.01
current	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	1	5	0	0	0	4.50	2.56	1.06
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.95	0.96
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	4.50	2.42	1.06
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	0.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		2.83	1.21
simulation	CHW	1	Hagen Smith	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	2	5	0	19	77	0.00	0.87	0.90
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	6	18	13.50	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.62	1.16
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.77	1.11
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	3.83	1.50
simulation	CHW	6	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.56	1.01
simulation	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	1	5	0	26	101	4.50	2.56	1.06
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.95	0.96
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	20	0.00	2.83	1.21
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	8	32	4.50	2.42	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Hagen Smith	Starter	5.0	0	2	2	5	19	77
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	2	2	0	1	6	18
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4
CHW	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
CLE	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	3	5	1	5	26	101
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	1	1	0	8	32
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_NYY@TB

20261003_NYY@TB.json • 2026-10-03

NYY 3 - TB 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.490 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.490254, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526127, 'published_confidence': 0.518365, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, TB 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 3 - TB 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.531136, 'artifact': '20260924_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260923', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505259, 'artifact': '20260923_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534918, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.520635, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_NYY@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02330248749325166}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023222854227010863}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023083427806788986}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023004543148967774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02066254278454156}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06999058682318827, '1': 0.10249378597138088, '2': 0.1323218909937819, '3': 0.15060594794232982, '4': 0.15112238935098274, '5': 0.13368779528801952, '6': 0.10426318154822485, '7': 0.0716879971844097, '8': 0.043454842844252925, '9': 0.023222350849202135, '10': 0.010940834359288339, '11': 0.004544341558133142, '12': 0.0016640552868057948}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07285450579554124, '1': 0.1064917431133728, '2': 0.13672721079437586, '3': 0.15419612933151472, '4': 0.15274657782956022, '5': 0.13290735191451863, '6': 0.10157948820433715, '7': 0.06819342994486619, '8': 0.04021226616538831, '9': 0.020828311363539215, '10': 0.009476087743101751, '11': 0.0037868977998838016}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2853, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.028, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1757}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.490 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.490254, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.526127, 'published_confidence': 0.518365, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.482.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.518.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, TB 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 3 - TB 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'NYY', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260924', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.531136, 'artifact': '20260924_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260923', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505259, 'artifact': '20260923_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534918, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260922', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.520635, 'artifact': '20260922_TB@NYY_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYY', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_NYY@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02330248749325166}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023222854227010863}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023083427806788986}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023004543148967774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02066254278454156}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06999058682318827, '1': 0.10249378597138088, '2': 0.1323218909937819, '3': 0.15060594794232982, '4': 0.15112238935098274, '5': 0.13368779528801952, '6': 0.10426318154822485, '7': 0.0716879971844097, '8': 0.043454842844252925, '9': 0.023222350849202135, '10': 0.010940834359288339, '11': 0.004544341558133142, '12': 0.0016640552868057948}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07285450579554124, '1': 0.1064917431133728, '2': 0.13672721079437586, '3': 0.15419612933151472, '4': 0.15274657782956022, '5': 0.13290735191451863, '6': 0.10157948820433715, '7': 0.06819342994486619, '8': 0.04021226616538831, '9': 0.020828311363539215, '10': 0.009476087743101751, '11': 0.0037868977998838016}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2853, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.028, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1757}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0269, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.182, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TB', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1757, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.518.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.330188683970775	4.7654968017036134		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.518	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	4
TB	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		8			0		4	3	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	TB	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	7	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		4			1		3	4	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	31	4	2	1	1	3	3	4	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		8			0		4	3	7					8.0	4	35	132
simulation	TB	batting	32	8	3	1	0	4	4	3	7	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		4			1		3	4	5					9.0	3	35	158

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TB		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Spencer Jones	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	CF	Trent Grisham	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	8	C	Austin Wells	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	9	3B	Ryan McMahon	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	4	C	Liam Hicks	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	TB	7	CF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	7	3	3	3	6	0	0	0	4.76	3.61	1.10
current	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.17	1.21
current	NYY	4	David Bednar	Closer	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	2.43	1.04
current	TB	1	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	1	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	3.00	2.67	0.91
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.30	0.87
current	TB	3	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.98	0.76
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.44	0.90
simulation	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	7	3	3	3	6	0	27	104	4.76	3.61	1.10
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	13.50	2.43	1.04
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	17	0.00	2.17	1.21
simulation	TB	1	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	1	2	2	3	5	0	22	103	3.00	2.67	0.91
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	23	0.00	1.30	0.87
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.44	0.90
simulation	TB	4	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	1.98	0.76

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	3	7	3	6	27	104
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	17
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	11
TB	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	2	1	3	5	22	103
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	23
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20261003_SD@MIL

20261003_SD@MIL.json • 2026-10-03

SD 4 - MIL 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.551 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.550696, 'sample_size': 285, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5579, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.554298, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 10, MIL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_SD@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015995938487533404}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01545657949509333}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015329711421689577}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015265038729009327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015112039256447262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04163467869456087, '1': 0.062098513857551475, '2': 0.08470706519929076, '3': 0.105674573295292, '4': 0.12056848661537828, '5': 0.12580837579928966, '6': 0.12005983459530394, '7': 0.10478481837500872, '8': 0.0836395000878033, '9': 0.06105720656452228, '10': 0.04076381976334636, '11': 0.024890020459036263, '12': 0.013899144616141106, '13': 0.007098446816851556, '14': 0.0033155152606234553}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04305153530911173, '1': 0.0641529926971978, '2': 0.08726944454139246, '3': 0.10837385371575123, '4': 0.12285811176635984, '5': 0.12714525869925203, '6': 0.12011950047393098, '7': 0.1035962128712133, '8': 0.08156263641812865, '9': 0.058621327049306816, '10': 0.03846245932843129, '11': 0.023037506384625633, '12': 0.012596529304155715, '13': 0.006287577457857363, '14': 0.0028650539832850465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches SD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.551 -> 0.554 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.550696, 'sample_size': 285, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5579, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.554298, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 10, MIL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - MIL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -11, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260812_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51256, 'artifact': '20260811_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260810_MIL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-10-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20261003_SD@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0404, 'away_run_delta': 0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015995938487533404}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01545657949509333}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015329711421689577}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015265038729009327}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015112039256447262}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04163467869456087, '1': 0.062098513857551475, '2': 0.08470706519929076, '3': 0.105674573295292, '4': 0.12056848661537828, '5': 0.12580837579928966, '6': 0.12005983459530394, '7': 0.10478481837500872, '8': 0.0836395000878033, '9': 0.06105720656452228, '10': 0.04076381976334636, '11': 0.024890020459036263, '12': 0.013899144616141106, '13': 0.007098446816851556, '14': 0.0033155152606234553}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04305153530911173, '1': 0.0641529926971978, '2': 0.08726944454139246, '3': 0.10837385371575123, '4': 0.12285811176635984, '5': 0.12714525869925203, '6': 0.12011950047393098, '7': 0.1035962128712133, '8': 0.08156263641812865, '9': 0.058621327049306816, '10': 0.03846245932843129, '11': 0.023037506384625633, '12': 0.012596529304155715, '13': 0.006287577457857363, '14': 0.0028650539832850465}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.179, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.723}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.063, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.334, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.723, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7426866281279048	6.328560068290372		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4	10
MIL	0	1	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		8			3		6	3	5					8.0	6	0	0
current	MIL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	5	5	5	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		10			1		4	4	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	SD	batting	37	10	2	1	1	4	4	4	7	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		8			3		6	3	5					8.0	6	35	149
simulation	MIL	batting	32	8	1	1	3	6	6	3	5	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		10			1		4	4	7					9.0	4	41	177

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SD		LF	Dustin Harris	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Luis Campusano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	SD		C	Ethan Salas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	SD	2	LF	Dustin Harris	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	5	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.600
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SD	7	C	Ethan Salas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	8	DH	Luis Campusano	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.500
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Christian Yelich	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Luis Lara	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	3B	Joey Ortiz	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SD	1	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	5.40	3.59	1.35
current	SD	2	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.67	0.96
current	SD	3	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.65	0.90
current	SD	4	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	54.00	2.76	1.07
current	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	4	6	0	0	0	1.50	1.80	0.80
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	3.12	1.31
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.97	1.03
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.04	0.86
simulation	SD	1	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	1	22	97	5.40	3.59	1.35
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	1.65	0.90
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	1	3	11	54.00	2.76	1.07
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	6	25	0.00	1.67	0.96
simulation	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	4	6	0	26	116	1.50	1.80	0.80
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	2.04	0.86
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	1.97	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	26	18.00	3.12	1.31

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SD	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.0	3	6	1	4	22	97
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	0	6	25
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	0.1	2	1	1	1	3	11
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.0	1	4	4	6	26	116
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	26
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.