MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-10-06 14:29:22. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
1Error
0Warn
102Pass
7Info

20261001_PHI@ATL

20261001_PHI@ATL__20261002T003727Z.json • 2026-10-01

PHI 3 - ATL 4
ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 40.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
ERRORPitching
Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.
0C / 1E / 0W-Published pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25{'offenders': ['away published 24 outs, box 25']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
ERRORpitchingPUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXPublished pitcher lines disagree with the box: away published 24 outs, box 25{'offenders': ['away published 24 outs, box 25']}Each staff's published innings equal the outs its box recorded, extra innings included.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONPHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12; SF: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: BB current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaPHICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXPHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaPHICURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXPHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.T. Realmuto: SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentPHIBATTING_REALISMcurrent:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationPHIBATTING_REALISMsimulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentPHIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationPHIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=38 matches PHI BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:PHI PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53605, 'published_confidence': 0.516818, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaPHICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXPHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEPHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKPHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTPHI current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDPHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.689/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: PHI 5, ATL 11.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: PHI 3 - ATL 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 9, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260930', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512824, 'artifact': '20260930_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260929', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505394, 'artifact': '20260929_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260913', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.543039, 'artifact': '20260913_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260912', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260912_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527156, 'artifact': '20260911_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.05, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.559, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-01.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261001_PHI@ATL__20261002T003727Z, game_id=20261001_PHI@ATL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ATL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02740861565572562}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026070550743917793}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0256506964568365}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025310539900245163}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025018712063658185}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08161421444373858, '1': 0.11860583380580444, '2': 0.14965362810803134, '3': 0.1639492378289185, '4': 0.1559453778305867, '5': 0.1287883457152115, '6': 0.09234674142840939, '7': 0.057492016163692754, '8': 0.031076668526830494, '9': 0.014584862021725622, '10': 0.005943074127050757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08497667427160799, '1': 0.1232062343953657, '2': 0.15438034501055006, '3': 0.1671774508907848, '4': 0.15645511254894076, '5': 0.126540104449236, '6': 0.08844901211530055, '7': 0.053429874426288125, '8': 0.027893415048936672, '9': 0.012584779004367486, '10': 0.0049069978386219164}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.679, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.336, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.559}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.05, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.559, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationPHIPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHPHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationPHIPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHPHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentPHIPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentPHISTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationPHIPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationPHISTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 3 - 4 ATL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: PHI 3 - 4 ATL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentPHIRECENT_FORM_RANGEPHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentPHITEAM_RECENT_RECORDPHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentPHIBATTING_REALISMcurrent:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationPHIBATTING_REALISMsimulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentPHIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationPHIBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=38 matches PHI BF=38.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:PHI PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationPHIRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 815, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53605, 'published_confidence': 0.516818, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaPHICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXPHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEPHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKPHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTPHI current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDPHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.689/0.900.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsGAME_ENDING_COHERENTThe game ends coherently for its score.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: PHI 5, ATL 11.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: PHI 3 - ATL 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-09-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-09-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 9, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260930', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512824, 'artifact': '20260930_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260929', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505394, 'artifact': '20260929_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260913', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.543039, 'artifact': '20260913_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260912', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 10, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260912_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260911', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'ATL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.527156, 'artifact': '20260911_PHI@ATL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.05, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.559, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-10-01.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename contains game_id: filename=20261001_PHI@ATL__20261002T003727Z, game_id=20261001_PHI@ATL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: PHI@ATL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02740861565572562}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026070550743917793}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0256506964568365}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025310539900245163}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025018712063658185}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08161421444373858, '1': 0.11860583380580444, '2': 0.14965362810803134, '3': 0.1639492378289185, '4': 0.1559453778305867, '5': 0.1287883457152115, '6': 0.09234674142840939, '7': 0.057492016163692754, '8': 0.031076668526830494, '9': 0.014584862021725622, '10': 0.005943074127050757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08497667427160799, '1': 0.1232062343953657, '2': 0.15438034501055006, '3': 0.1671774508907848, '4': 0.15645511254894076, '5': 0.126540104449236, '6': 0.08844901211530055, '7': 0.053429874426288125, '8': 0.027893415048936672, '9': 0.012584779004367486, '10': 0.0049069978386219164}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.25, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.679, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.336, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.559}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.05, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.559, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASSpitch_countsimulationPHIPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHPHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationPHIPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHPHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentPHIPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentPHISTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationPHIPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationPHISTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationPHIPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 3 - 4 ATL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: PHI 3 - 4 ATL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentPHIRECENT_FORM_RANGEPHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentPHITEAM_RECENT_RECORDPHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentPHICURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONPHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12; SF: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: BB current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaPHICURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXPHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaPHICURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXPHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.T. Realmuto: SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.1983719404957074.84780796396016Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.517Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result34Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
PHI00000000335
ATL000120001411
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentPHIbatting32810144370000
currentPHIpitching11242128.0400
currentATLbatting32920145380000
currentATLpitching503279.0300
simulationPHIbatting325100332700
simulationPHIpitching11242128.1438159
simulationATLbatting35113024421210
simulationATLpitching503279.0334153
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentPHI1BAlec Bohm041000010000.250
currentPHIRFBryce Harper041000111100.250
currentPHILFBryan De La Cruz031000000100.333
currentPHI3BEdmundo Sosa031000010100.333
currentPHIDHKyle Schwarber041001111100.250
currentPHISSTrea Turner041100100100.250
currentPHI2BBryson Stott041000101100.250
currentPHICJ.T. Realmuto030000000100.000
currentPHICFJustin Crawford031000000000.333
currentATLRFRonald Acuña Jr.041100111100.250
currentATLSSMauricio Dubón041000000000.250
currentATLCDrake Baldwin041000111100.250
currentATLCFMichael Harris II041100110100.250
currentATL1BMatt Olson041001111100.250
currentATLLFMike Yastrzemski031000000100.333
currentATL2BOzzie Albies031000100100.333
currentATL3BAustin Riley031000000100.333
currentATLDHDominic Smith031000000100.333
simulationPHI1SSTrea Turner440000000000.000
simulationPHI2DHKyle Schwarber441000000100.250
simulationPHI3RFBryce Harper431000101100.333
simulationPHI41BAlec Bohm441100120000.250
simulationPHI52BBryson Stott441000110200.250
simulationPHI6LFBryan De La Cruz430000001100.000
simulationPHI73BEdmundo Sosa441000000200.250
simulationPHI8CJ.T. Realmuto330000000000.000
simulationPHI9CFJustin Crawford330000000000.000
simulationATL1CDrake Baldwin543100100100.750
simulationATL2RFRonald Acuña Jr.552101120300.400
simulationATL31BMatt Olson431000101200.333
simulationATL4CFMichael Harris II441001120100.250
simulationATL5SSMauricio Dubón440000000200.000
simulationATL6LFMike Yastrzemski431000001100.333
simulationATL73BAustin Riley441000000000.250
simulationATL82BOzzie Albies441100000000.250
simulationATL9DHDominic Smith441000000200.250
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentPHI1Aaron NolaStarter5.1922261003.384.671.35
currentPHI2Alex McFarlaneMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.02220110018.003.101.18
currentPHI3Jhoan DuranCloser1.0000030000.001.910.95
currentPHI4Jonathan BowlanSetup Man0.2000020000.003.361.03
currentATL1Ray KerrStarter4.2000050000.001.470.60
currentATL2Didier FuentesSetup Man1.1100110000.002.531.12
currentATL3Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.04330100027.003.010.92
currentATL4Raisel IglesiasCloser2.0000100000.002.471.08
simulationPHI1Aaron NolaStarter5.1922261281143.384.671.35
simulationPHI2Jhoan DuranCloser1.00000303130.001.910.95
simulationPHI3Jonathan BowlanSetup Man0.2000020280.003.361.03
simulationPHI4Alex McFarlaneMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.122201152413.503.101.18
simulationATL1Ray KerrStarter4.200005014710.001.470.60
simulationATL2Raisel IglesiasCloser2.00001007330.002.471.08
simulationATL3Didier FuentesSetup Man1.11001106240.002.531.12
simulationATL4Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.043301072527.003.010.92
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
PHIAaron NolaStarter5.1292628114
PHIAlex McFarlaneMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.12201524
PHIJhoan DuranCloser1.00003313
PHIJonathan BowlanSetup Man0.2000228
ATLRay KerrStarter4.200051471
ATLDidier FuentesSetup Man1.10111624
ATLDylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.03401725
ATLRaisel IglesiasCloser2.00010733
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_ENDING_COHERENTgood0001The inning line ends the way a real game with the published score ends.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
LUNA_KPI_TRACEnot triggered0000Promoted Luna KPIs are traced per hitter and the per-game totals agree.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
PUBLISHED_PITCHER_LINES_MATCH_BOXerror0100Published staff lines cover the outs the box recorded, extra innings included.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.