20260922_ARI@COL
20260922_ARI@COL.json • 2026-09-22
ARI 6 - COL 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=11, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=2 box=1, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, 3B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jose Fernandez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match COL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match COL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=36 matches COL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match ARI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=37 matches ARI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.697 -> 0.630 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.697207, 'sample_size': 279, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629953, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260812_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260811_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5693, 'artifact': '20260810_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0433, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.534, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.052, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_ARI@COL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@COL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014872093677049792}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014580299872657028}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014555154468836562}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014269579082598903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.014099756147751085}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04433457063819088, '1': 0.06718185094711822, '2': 0.09221158195566188, '3': 0.11464180885414929, '4': 0.1290995226709389, '5': 0.131683176038459, '6': 0.12166341378159322, '7': 0.10181546600938646, '8': 0.07717765132408078, '9': 0.05298993807964911, '10': 0.03295484820746812, '11': 0.018563902066131982, '12': 0.009472034498917405, '13': 0.0043776528938096896, '14': 0.0018325820344451786}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.026677289003250705, '1': 0.04091487465484983, '2': 0.05822439066992085, '3': 0.07687991160668393, '4': 0.09419004280344724, '5': 0.10707332988105597, '6': 0.11293844912053376, '7': 0.11053161768049721, '8': 0.10037265881311314, '9': 0.08457237497808905, '10': 0.06611893060429451, '11': 0.04796310724042085, '12': 0.032282933864722724, '13': 0.020161501758287712, '14': 0.011683069372580426, '15': 0.006281671609572164, '16': 0.0031338463386800085}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3686, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.464, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.052} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0433, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.534, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.052, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | COL | BATTING_REALISM | current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ARI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | COL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ARI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | COL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting walks match COL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting home runs match COL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting hits match COL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ARI PA=36 matches COL BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ARI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:COL batting walks match ARI pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:COL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:COL batting hits match ARI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:COL PA=37 matches ARI BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | COL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.697 -> 0.630 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.697207, 'sample_size': 279, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5627, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629953, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ARI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | COL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | COL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 6 - COL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-08-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260812', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260812_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260811', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260811_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260810', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5693, 'artifact': '20260810_COL@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0433, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.534, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.052, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_ARI@COL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@COL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0865, 'away_run_delta': 0.0865, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014872093677049792}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014580299872657028}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014555154468836562}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014269579082598903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.014099756147751085}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04433457063819088, '1': 0.06718185094711822, '2': 0.09221158195566188, '3': 0.11464180885414929, '4': 0.1290995226709389, '5': 0.131683176038459, '6': 0.12166341378159322, '7': 0.10181546600938646, '8': 0.07717765132408078, '9': 0.05298993807964911, '10': 0.03295484820746812, '11': 0.018563902066131982, '12': 0.009472034498917405, '13': 0.0043776528938096896, '14': 0.0018325820344451786}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.026677289003250705, '1': 0.04091487465484983, '2': 0.05822439066992085, '3': 0.07687991160668393, '4': 0.09419004280344724, '5': 0.10707332988105597, '6': 0.11293844912053376, '7': 0.11053161768049721, '8': 0.10037265881311314, '9': 0.08457237497808905, '10': 0.06611893060429451, '11': 0.04796310724042085, '12': 0.032282933864722724, '13': 0.020161501758287712, '14': 0.011683069372580426, '15': 0.006281671609572164, '16': 0.0031338463386800085}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.3686, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.464, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.052} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 6 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0433, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.534, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.052, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ARI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | COL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ARI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | COL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ARI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | COL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 6 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 6 - 5 COL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ARI wins 6-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ARI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | COL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ARI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | COL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=11, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ARI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=2 box=1, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, 3B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jose Fernandez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | COL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.787624009460735 | 4.145455061371634 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.560 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | batting | 33 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ARI | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | COL | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | COL | pitching | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | ARI | batting | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | ARI | pitching | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9.0 | 5 | 37 | 165 | |||||||||
| simulation | COL | batting | 32 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | COL | pitching | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 6 | 36 | 166 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | DH | Ketel Marte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | 2B | Ildemaro Vargas | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| current | ARI | CF | Jordan Lawlar | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | RF | Corbin Carroll | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | LF | Tim Tawa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | 1B | Jose Fernandez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ARI | C | Gabriel Moreno | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | |
| current | ARI | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ARI | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | CF | Jake McCarthy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | SS | Cole Carrigg | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 3B | Kyle Karros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | DH | Mickey Moniak | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | C | Hunter Goodman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 2B | Connor Norby | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | 1B | TJ Rumfield | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | COL | RF | Troy Johnston | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | COL | LF | Zac Veen | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | 2B | Ildemaro Vargas | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | DH | Ketel Marte | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | C | Gabriel Moreno | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | ARI | 5 | 3B | Nolan Arenado | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 6 | CF | Jordan Lawlar | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 7 | RF | Corbin Carroll | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ARI | 8 | LF | Tim Tawa | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ARI | 9 | 1B | Jose Fernandez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | CF | Jake McCarthy | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | 2B | Connor Norby | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | 1B | TJ Rumfield | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | C | Hunter Goodman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | SS | Cole Carrigg | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 6 | 3B | Kyle Karros | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | COL | 7 | DH | Mickey Moniak | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | COL | 8 | RF | Troy Johnston | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | COL | 9 | LF | Zac Veen | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | ARI | 1 | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 3.45 | 1.13 |
| current | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| current | ARI | 3 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| current | ARI | 4 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| current | ARI | 5 | Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.04 | 1.12 |
| current | COL | 1 | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.64 | 6.38 | 1.47 |
| current | COL | 2 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.65 | 1.47 |
| current | COL | 3 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.45 | 1.09 |
| current | COL | 4 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.26 | 1.26 |
| current | COL | 5 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.30 | 1.41 |
| simulation | ARI | 1 | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 89 | 3.60 | 3.45 | 1.13 |
| simulation | ARI | 2 | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.68 |
| simulation | ARI | 3 | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 18.00 | 2.54 | 0.98 |
| simulation | ARI | 4 | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 1.11 |
| simulation | ARI | 5 | Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.04 | 1.12 |
| simulation | COL | 1 | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 97 | 9.64 | 6.38 | 1.47 |
| simulation | COL | 2 | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.26 | 1.26 |
| simulation | COL | 3 | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.45 | 1.09 |
| simulation | COL | 4 | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 0.00 | 5.65 | 1.47 |
| simulation | COL | 5 | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 4.30 | 1.41 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Michael Soroka | Starter | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 89 |
| ARI | Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| ARI | Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| ARI | Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| ARI | Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| COL | Kyle Freeland | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 97 |
| COL | Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| COL | Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| COL | Jordan Romano | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| COL | Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_CHW@KC
20260922_CHW@KC.json • 2026-09-22
CHW 5 - KC 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: H current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match KC pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match KC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match KC pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=40 matches KC BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match CHW pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=37 matches CHW BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 496, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5423, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5262, 'published_confidence': 0.505257, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.720. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, KC 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 5 - KC 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 21, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 22, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 21, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260628', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.545, 'artifact': '20260628_KC@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_KC@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0249, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.642, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8325, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CHW@KC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@KC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -26.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 26.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.15, 'away_run_delta': 0.15, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -21.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021807817430817302}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020960150209752837}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020734233527767796}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02037449857523685}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020092586061961053}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06116472027796691, '1': 0.09164343066544639, '2': 0.12159270098928096, '3': 0.14286291105780963, '4': 0.14864055127496822, '5': 0.13694965478614174, '6': 0.11173529985197553, '7': 0.08072827604465013, '8': 0.05164957830671835, '9': 0.029262653469393298, '10': 0.014681365512963784, '11': 0.006522664194862652, '12': 0.002566193567822169}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.058895360538108926, '1': 0.08837995436562997, '2': 0.11780859344363724, '3': 0.13949244233770236, '4': 0.14671512749219628, '5': 0.13707227536815528, '6': 0.11375614294534321, '7': 0.08385917860026602, '8': 0.05491321355903247, '9': 0.0319413762657908, '10': 0.016503683998116553, '11': 0.007574582214063306, '12': 0.003088068871957489}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0481, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8325} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0249, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.642, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8325, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 5 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 5 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | KC | BATTING_REALISM | current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHW | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | KC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHW | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | KC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting walks match KC pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting home runs match KC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting hits match KC pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHW PA=40 matches KC BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHW | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:KC batting walks match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:KC batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:KC batting hits match CHW pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:KC PA=37 matches CHW BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | KC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 496, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5423, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5262, 'published_confidence': 0.505257, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHW current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | KC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | KC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.527/0.720. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, KC 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 5 - KC 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 21, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 22, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 21, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260628', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.545, 'artifact': '20260628_KC@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_KC@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0249, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.642, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8325, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CHW@KC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@KC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -26.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 26.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.15, 'away_run_delta': 0.15, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -21.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021807817430817302}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020960150209752837}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020734233527767796}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02037449857523685}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020092586061961053}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06116472027796691, '1': 0.09164343066544639, '2': 0.12159270098928096, '3': 0.14286291105780963, '4': 0.14864055127496822, '5': 0.13694965478614174, '6': 0.11173529985197553, '7': 0.08072827604465013, '8': 0.05164957830671835, '9': 0.029262653469393298, '10': 0.014681365512963784, '11': 0.006522664194862652, '12': 0.002566193567822169}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.058895360538108926, '1': 0.08837995436562997, '2': 0.11780859344363724, '3': 0.13949244233770236, '4': 0.14671512749219628, '5': 0.13707227536815528, '6': 0.11375614294534321, '7': 0.08385917860026602, '8': 0.05491321355903247, '9': 0.0319413762657908, '10': 0.016503683998116553, '11': 0.007574582214063306, '12': 0.003088068871957489}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0481, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8325} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHW 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0249, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.642, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHW', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8325, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHW | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | KC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHW | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | KC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHW | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | KC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 5 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 5 - 4 KC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHW wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHW | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHW wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | KC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHW | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | KC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHW | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: H current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=6, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | KC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.092092201064534 | 4.917808657956837 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | batting | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHW | pitching | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | KC | batting | 35 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | KC | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHW | batting | 35 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CHW | pitching | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 37 | 139 | |||||||||
| simulation | KC | batting | 37 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | KC | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 40 | 166 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | DH | Tommy Pham | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | LF | Randal Grichuk | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | C | Kyle Teel | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | RF | Braden Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CHW | CF | Brenton Doyle | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHW | 3B | Miguel Vargas | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHW | SS | Colson Montgomery | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | KC | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | C | Carter Jensen | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 3B | Maikel Garcia | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | RF | Jac Caglianone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | LF | Nick Loftin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | DH | Salvador Perez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | 2B | Michael Massey | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | KC | CF | Kyle Isbel | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | 3B | Miguel Vargas | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | DH | Tommy Pham | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | LF | Randal Grichuk | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 5 | 2B | Chase Meidroth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 6 | C | Kyle Teel | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHW | 7 | CF | Brenton Doyle | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHW | 8 | SS | Colson Montgomery | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHW | 9 | RF | Braden Montgomery | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | KC | 1 | C | Carter Jensen | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | RF | Jac Caglianone | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | 3B | Maikel Garcia | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | KC | 5 | 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 6 | DH | Salvador Perez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | KC | 7 | 2B | Michael Massey | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | KC | 8 | LF | Nick Loftin | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | KC | 9 | CF | Kyle Isbel | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 4.41 | 1.36 |
| current | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| current | CHW | 3 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| current | CHW | 4 | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 2.58 | 1.16 |
| current | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 | 3.29 | 1.07 |
| current | KC | 2 | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.25 | 6.09 | 1.56 |
| current | KC | 3 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.43 | 1.30 |
| current | KC | 4 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 4.37 | 1.27 |
| simulation | CHW | 1 | Anthony Kay | Starter | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 22 | 84 | 5.40 | 4.41 | 1.36 |
| simulation | CHW | 2 | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.40 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CHW | 3 | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.11 |
| simulation | CHW | 4 | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 6.75 | 2.58 | 1.16 |
| simulation | KC | 1 | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 101 | 1.59 | 3.29 | 1.07 |
| simulation | KC | 2 | Steven Cruz | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 4.37 | 1.27 |
| simulation | KC | 3 | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.43 | 1.30 |
| simulation | KC | 4 | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 20.25 | 6.09 | 1.56 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Anthony Kay | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 84 |
| CHW | Grant Taylor | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| CHW | Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| CHW | Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| KC | Daniel Lynch IV | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 101 |
| KC | Alex Lange | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 33 |
| KC | Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| KC | Steven Cruz | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_CIN@ATL
20260922_CIN@ATL.json • 2026-09-22
CIN 6 - ATL 9
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=6, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carlos Jorge: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; JJ Bleday: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match CIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match CIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=40 matches CIN BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match ATL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match ATL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=43 matches ATL BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.901 -> 0.736 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.901014, 'sample_size': 126, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5714, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.736207, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 15 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 15.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.459/0.639. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 10, ATL 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - ATL 9. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.2447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.699, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CIN@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0409, 'away_run_delta': -0.0409, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.013024453660000096}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012772416561326525}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01269729685044871}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012515392949979368}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.012451590585700547}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.016116702600689085, '1': 0.02490995211028489, '2': 0.03628007093187812, '3': 0.04979226664230673, '4': 0.06439530435130399, '5': 0.07847747801299296, '6': 0.0901227447486903, '7': 0.09752642761708144, '8': 0.09945090899792158, '9': 0.0955638706876568, '10': 0.08653209954290154, '11': 0.07383449090780747, '12': 0.059366283621663865, '13': 0.044979950660993646, '14': 0.032114164019068976, '15': 0.021605921898896013, '16': 0.013697695792725801, '17': 0.008183154789438997, '18': 0.0046067277806289214, '19': 0.002443784285068975}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04340882314886424, '1': 0.06582015012131745, '2': 0.09051208544681454, '3': 0.11288107081659562, '4': 0.1276740150330257, '5': 0.13096364619726394, '6': 0.12183325462307243, '7': 0.10278926968216114, '8': 0.07864960777096333, '9': 0.054577317757111214, '10': 0.0343474627689033, '11': 0.019603967825542603, '12': 0.01014752539829474, '13': 0.004763686352404122, '14': 0.0020281170576656473}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.0064, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.128, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.699} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.2447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.699, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 194. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 194. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 6 - 9 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 9 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-9. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-9. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-9, final 6-9 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 15. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | ATL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | ATL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting walks match CIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting hits match CIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:ATL PA=40 matches CIN BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | ATL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting walks match ATL pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting home runs match ATL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting hits match ATL pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CIN PA=43 matches ATL BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.901 -> 0.736 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.901014, 'sample_size': 126, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5714, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.736207, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | ATL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 15 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 15.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.459/0.639. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 10, ATL 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - ATL 9. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.2447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.699, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CIN@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@ATL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0409, 'away_run_delta': -0.0409, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.013024453660000096}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012772416561326525}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01269729685044871}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012515392949979368}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.012451590585700547}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.016116702600689085, '1': 0.02490995211028489, '2': 0.03628007093187812, '3': 0.04979226664230673, '4': 0.06439530435130399, '5': 0.07847747801299296, '6': 0.0901227447486903, '7': 0.09752642761708144, '8': 0.09945090899792158, '9': 0.0955638706876568, '10': 0.08653209954290154, '11': 0.07383449090780747, '12': 0.059366283621663865, '13': 0.044979950660993646, '14': 0.032114164019068976, '15': 0.021605921898896013, '16': 0.013697695792725801, '17': 0.008183154789438997, '18': 0.0046067277806289214, '19': 0.002443784285068975}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04340882314886424, '1': 0.06582015012131745, '2': 0.09051208544681454, '3': 0.11288107081659562, '4': 0.1276740150330257, '5': 0.13096364619726394, '6': 0.12183325462307243, '7': 0.10278926968216114, '8': 0.07864960777096333, '9': 0.054577317757111214, '10': 0.0343474627689033, '11': 0.019603967825542603, '12': 0.01014752539829474, '13': 0.004763686352404122, '14': 0.0020281170576656473}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 2.0064, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.128, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.699} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 9 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0595, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.2447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.699, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 9, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 194. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | ATL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 194. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | ATL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | ATL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 6 - 9 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 9 ATL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-9. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 6-9. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-9, final 6-9 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 15. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: ATL wins 9-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | ATL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | ATL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | ATL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=6, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carlos Jorge: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; JJ Bleday: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.914817637847719 | 4.936296488749236 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 8 | 0.600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 9 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 9 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 6 | 9 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 6 | 9 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CIN | pitching | 9 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | ATL | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | ATL | pitching | 10 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CIN | batting | 37 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CIN | pitching | 9 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8.0 | 9 | 40 | 182 | |||||||||
| simulation | ATL | batting | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | ATL | pitching | 10 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 9.0 | 6 | 43 | 194 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | RF | Carlos Jorge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 1B | Sal Stewart | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 3B | Eugenio Suárez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | LF | JJ Bleday | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CIN | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | DH | Héctor Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | C | Tyler Stephenson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CIN | 2B | Matt McLain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CIN | CF | Dane Myers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | DH | Drake Baldwin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 1B | Matt Olson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | CF | Michael Harris II | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | 3B | Austin Riley | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | ATL | C | Sean Murphy | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | ATL | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | RF | Carlos Jorge | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | SS | Elly De La Cruz | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | 1B | Sal Stewart | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | C | Tyler Stephenson | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | LF | JJ Bleday | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CIN | 6 | 3B | Eugenio Suárez | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CIN | 7 | CF | Dane Myers | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | CIN | 8 | DH | Héctor Rodríguez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CIN | 9 | 2B | Matt McLain | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | DH | Drake Baldwin | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | 1B | Matt Olson | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | 2B | Ozzie Albies | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | ATL | 5 | CF | Michael Harris II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ATL | 6 | LF | Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ATL | 7 | 3B | Austin Riley | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | ATL | 8 | C | Sean Murphy | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | ATL | 9 | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CIN | 1 | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11.25 | 5.56 | 1.53 |
| current | CIN | 2 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 2.36 | 1.26 |
| current | CIN | 3 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 1.03 |
| current | CIN | 4 | Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.53 | 1.57 |
| current | CIN | 5 | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.04 |
| current | CIN | 6 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.85 | 1.64 |
| current | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 5.03 | 1.47 |
| current | ATL | 2 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.29 | 1.06 |
| current | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.91 | 0.92 |
| current | ATL | 4 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.64 | 1.10 |
| current | ATL | 5 | Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27.00 | 2.31 | 0.90 |
| simulation | CIN | 1 | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 84 | 13.50 | 5.56 | 1.53 |
| simulation | CIN | 2 | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 1.03 |
| simulation | CIN | 3 | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 5.85 | 1.64 |
| simulation | CIN | 4 | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 38 | 27.00 | 2.36 | 1.26 |
| simulation | CIN | 5 | Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 5.53 | 1.57 |
| simulation | CIN | 6 | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.04 |
| simulation | ATL | 1 | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 3.86 | 5.03 | 1.47 |
| simulation | ATL | 2 | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 0.00 | 2.64 | 1.10 |
| simulation | ATL | 3 | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 18.00 | 2.91 | 0.92 |
| simulation | ATL | 4 | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 0.00 | 2.29 | 1.06 |
| simulation | ATL | 5 | Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 27.00 | 2.31 | 0.90 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Brandon Williamson | Starter | 4.0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 84 |
| CIN | Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| CIN | Emilio Pagán | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 |
| CIN | Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| CIN | Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| CIN | Luis Mey | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| ATL | JR Ritchie | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 85 |
| ATL | Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 |
| ATL | Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 29 |
| ATL | Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 31 |
| ATL | Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_CLE@BOS
20260922_CLE@BOS.json • 2026-09-22
CLE 3 - BOS 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; David Fry: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=34 matches CLE BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match BOS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=33 matches BOS BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 496, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5423, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5262, 'published_confidence': 0.505257, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 4, BOS 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - BOS 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -12, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0272, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.5033, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1268, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CLE@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0818, 'away_run_delta': -0.0818, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03157208015782883}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030249493781464746}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.029805065934887402}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02855650157184715}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028413358903600743}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09495160569035592, '1': 0.13893679527320696, '2': 0.17169881659860178, '3': 0.1792059344800353, '4': 0.15796924183297922, '5': 0.11760552933150305, '6': 0.07394656572403184, '7': 0.03926841190560274, '8': 0.01761179929515767, '9': 0.006671126533095452, '10': 0.002134173335429836}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09089296935682557, '1': 0.13339233051126315, '2': 0.16631740472974058, '3': 0.17617764863331667, '4': 0.1585514396386587, '5': 0.12122601825343864, '6': 0.07874586577641476, '7': 0.04345762162669757, '8': 0.02037560050200403, '9': 0.008116357165078681, '10': 0.0027467438065618024}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5288, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.62, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1268} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0272, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.5033, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1268, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BOS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CLE | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BOS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CLE | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting walks match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting hits match CLE pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BOS PA=34 matches CLE BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BOS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting walks match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting hits match BOS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CLE PA=33 matches BOS BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CLE | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 496, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5423, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5262, 'published_confidence': 0.505257, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BOS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CLE current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 4, BOS 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - BOS 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -12, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0272, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.5033, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1268, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_CLE@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@BOS. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0818, 'away_run_delta': -0.0818, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03157208015782883}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030249493781464746}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.029805065934887402}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02855650157184715}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028413358903600743}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09495160569035592, '1': 0.13893679527320696, '2': 0.17169881659860178, '3': 0.1792059344800353, '4': 0.15796924183297922, '5': 0.11760552933150305, '6': 0.07394656572403184, '7': 0.03926841190560274, '8': 0.01761179929515767, '9': 0.006671126533095452, '10': 0.002134173335429836}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09089296935682557, '1': 0.13339233051126315, '2': 0.16631740472974058, '3': 0.17617764863331667, '4': 0.1585514396386587, '5': 0.12122601825343864, '6': 0.07874586577641476, '7': 0.04345762162669757, '8': 0.02037560050200403, '9': 0.008116357165078681, '10': 0.0027467438065618024}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5288, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.62, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1268} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0272, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.5033, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1268, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BOS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CLE | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BOS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CLE | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BOS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CLE | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 BOS. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BOS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CLE | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BOS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | CLE | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BOS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CLE | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; David Fry: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.133488752570105 | 4.821217428059169 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CLE | pitching | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | BOS | batting | 32 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BOS | pitching | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | CLE | batting | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | CLE | pitching | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 34 | 152 | |||||||||
| simulation | BOS | batting | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | BOS | pitching | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9.0 | 3 | 33 | 123 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | CF | Steven Kwan | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | DH | Jo Adell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 1B | David Fry | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | CLE | LF | Angel Martínez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 3B | José Ramírez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | RF | Chase DeLauter | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CLE | C | Austin Hedges | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CLE | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | 1B | Nick Sogard | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | C | Adley Rutschman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | LF | Roman Anthony | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 2B | Andruw Monasterio | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | SS | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | CF | Nate Eaton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | BOS | DH | Jahmai Jones | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | BOS | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BOS | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | CF | Steven Kwan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | 3B | José Ramírez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | RF | Chase DeLauter | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CLE | 4 | DH | Jo Adell | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 5 | LF | Angel Martínez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CLE | 6 | 1B | David Fry | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 7 | 2B | Travis Bazzana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CLE | 8 | C | Austin Hedges | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | CLE | 9 | SS | Brayan Rocchio | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | LF | Roman Anthony | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | 1B | Nick Sogard | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | DH | Jahmai Jones | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | RF | Wilyer Abreu | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | C | Adley Rutschman | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 6 | 3B | Caleb Durbin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 7 | 2B | Andruw Monasterio | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 8 | SS | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BOS | 9 | CF | Nate Eaton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 2.57 | 1.04 |
| current | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.02 | 0.98 |
| current | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.51 | 1.15 |
| current | BOS | 1 | Payton Tolle | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| current | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| current | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 1.32 |
| current | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| current | BOS | 5 | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 1.18 |
| simulation | CLE | 1 | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 24 | 99 | 4.50 | 2.57 | 1.04 |
| simulation | CLE | 2 | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 0.00 | 2.02 | 0.98 |
| simulation | CLE | 3 | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5.40 | 2.51 | 1.15 |
| simulation | BOS | 1 | Payton Tolle | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 91 | 4.76 | 3.02 | 1.07 |
| simulation | BOS | 2 | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
| simulation | BOS | 3 | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0.00 | 2.74 | 1.32 |
| simulation | BOS | 4 | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| simulation | BOS | 5 | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 3.19 | 1.18 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Parker Messick | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 99 |
| CLE | Cade Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 |
| CLE | Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 24 |
| BOS | Payton Tolle | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 91 |
| BOS | Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| BOS | Erik Miller | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| BOS | Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| BOS | Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_HOU@SEA
20260922_HOU@SEA.json • 2026-09-22
HOU 3 - SEA 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=36 matches SEA BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=38 matches HOU BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.727 -> 0.643 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.72737, 'sample_size': 236, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5593, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.643335, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, SEA 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 3 - SEA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5125, 'artifact': '20260816_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.55645, 'artifact': '20260815_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512, 'artifact': '20260814_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0779, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2535, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_HOU@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018994785139768024}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018888997995317458}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018778225703798314}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018673644637972303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017619029641146693}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03521310791219545, '1': 0.05368904465261698, '2': 0.07506452916104552, '3': 0.09623911567851039, '4': 0.11314523081517074, '5': 0.12198000643035156, '6': 0.12058931307963641, '7': 0.10931927952471, '8': 0.09087668374629834, '9': 0.06927490682343743, '10': 0.048424729153996086, '11': 0.031040322193049103, '12': 0.01824538411396884, '13': 0.009834393268892872, '14': 0.004860824062102793, '15': 0.0022031293840174084}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07066150348715038, '1': 0.10519062513444784, '2': 0.13688777232459132, '3': 0.15572047990187401, '4': 0.1548532300340773, '5': 0.13461339000861963, '6': 0.10229389414641456, '7': 0.0679523717788645, '8': 0.03945962788198028, '9': 0.02003063921448361, '10': 0.008888533008135602, '11': 0.0034479330793607994}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0192, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2535} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0779, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2535, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | HOU | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SEA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | HOU | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SEA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:HOU PA=36 matches SEA BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | HOU | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SEA PA=38 matches HOU BF=38. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SEA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.727 -> 0.643 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.72737, 'sample_size': 236, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5593, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.643335, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | HOU current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SEA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, SEA 9. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 3 - SEA 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-08-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260816', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5125, 'artifact': '20260816_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.55645, 'artifact': '20260815_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.512, 'artifact': '20260814_SEA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0779, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2535, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_HOU@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SEA. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018994785139768024}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018888997995317458}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018778225703798314}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018673644637972303}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.017619029641146693}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03521310791219545, '1': 0.05368904465261698, '2': 0.07506452916104552, '3': 0.09623911567851039, '4': 0.11314523081517074, '5': 0.12198000643035156, '6': 0.12058931307963641, '7': 0.10931927952471, '8': 0.09087668374629834, '9': 0.06927490682343743, '10': 0.048424729153996086, '11': 0.031040322193049103, '12': 0.01824538411396884, '13': 0.009834393268892872, '14': 0.004860824062102793, '15': 0.0022031293840174084}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07066150348715038, '1': 0.10519062513444784, '2': 0.13688777232459132, '3': 0.15572047990187401, '4': 0.1548532300340773, '5': 0.13461339000861963, '6': 0.10229389414641456, '7': 0.0679523717788645, '8': 0.03945962788198028, '9': 0.02003063921448361, '10': 0.008888533008135602, '11': 0.0034479330793607994}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0192, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2535} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0779, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.83, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2535, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | HOU | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SEA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | current:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | HOU | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SEA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | HOU | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SEA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 3 - 5 SEA. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | HOU | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | HOU wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SEA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | HOU | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SEA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | HOU | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=9; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SEA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8457332020495683 | 4.975609731618868 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 5 | 0.600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | HOU | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SEA | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SEA | pitching | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | HOU | batting | 33 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | HOU | pitching | 9 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 38 | 155 | |||||||||
| simulation | SEA | batting | 31 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | SEA | pitching | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9.0 | 3 | 36 | 135 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 2B | Jose Altuve | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | SS | Jeremy Peña | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | C | Yainer Diaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | HOU | LF | Taylor Trammell | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | HOU | RF | Cam Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | HOU | 1B | Christian Walker | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | HOU | CF | Brice Matthews | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SEA | LF | Randy Arozarena | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | SS | J.P. Crawford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | DH | Dominic Canzone | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | C | Cal Raleigh | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | RF | Lazaro Montes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SEA | 3B | Brock Rodden | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SEA | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 1B | Josh Naylor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SEA | 2B | Cole Young | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | SS | Jeremy Peña | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | DH | Yordan Alvarez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | 3B | Isaac Paredes | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 4 | 2B | Jose Altuve | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 5 | C | Yainer Diaz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | HOU | 6 | 1B | Christian Walker | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | HOU | 7 | LF | Taylor Trammell | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | HOU | 8 | RF | Cam Smith | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | HOU | 9 | CF | Brice Matthews | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | SS | J.P. Crawford | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | LF | Randy Arozarena | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | DH | Dominic Canzone | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 4 | C | Cal Raleigh | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SEA | 5 | CF | Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 6 | 1B | Josh Naylor | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SEA | 7 | 2B | Cole Young | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SEA | 8 | RF | Lazaro Montes | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SEA | 9 | 3B | Brock Rodden | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | HOU | 1 | Cristian Javier | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 5.31 | 1.46 |
| current | HOU | 2 | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| current | HOU | 4 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| current | SEA | 1 | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.69 | 1.06 |
| current | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.92 | 1.19 |
| current | SEA | 5 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.94 | 1.44 |
| simulation | HOU | 1 | Cristian Javier | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 100 | 5.40 | 5.31 | 1.46 |
| simulation | HOU | 2 | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 10.80 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| simulation | HOU | 3 | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| simulation | SEA | 1 | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 93 | 4.76 | 3.69 | 1.06 |
| simulation | SEA | 2 | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.92 | 1.19 |
| simulation | SEA | 3 | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.94 | 1.44 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Cristian Javier | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 100 |
| HOU | Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| HOU | Josh Hader | Closer | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 34 |
| SEA | Logan Gilbert | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 93 |
| SEA | Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
| SEA | José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_LAA@OAK
20260922_LAA@OAK.json • 2026-09-22
LAA 5 - OAK 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Moore: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=3; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy White: 2B current=0 box=1; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Denzel Clarke: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match OAK pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=36 matches OAK BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match LAA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=36 matches LAA BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.590 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.589632, 'sample_size': 608, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.572766, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 5, OAK 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 5 - OAK 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260627', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_OAK@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260626_OAK@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1275, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.562, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6836, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_LAA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01802074068732686}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01740953005386772}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01723162970667973}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01717736037965188}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0166932069363516}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05343477770460599, '1': 0.08048449357157093, '2': 0.10848806793669231, '3': 0.13086794555365955, '4': 0.14127526964097756, '5': 0.13648362713595566, '6': 0.1179985082313575, '7': 0.09129647901469569, '8': 0.06321397362774946, '9': 0.03917001191984276, '10': 0.021720802514359438, '11': 0.010779027522363118, '12': 0.004787015626169971}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03971920077593216, '1': 0.060376326773134426, '2': 0.08365085414937108, '3': 0.10563591005741368, '4': 0.12158787892109253, '5': 0.12755764496590888, '6': 0.12197201782357538, '7': 0.10630444649981503, '8': 0.0844462091392718, '9': 0.06114295053772614, '10': 0.04035061256743805, '11': 0.02427120720779267, '12': 0.013306692762599024, '13': 0.0066494601431591385, '14': 0.0030285876757699254}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8622, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.352, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6836} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1275, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.562, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6836, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 5 - 4 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 5 - 4 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | OAK | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | OAK | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting walks match OAK pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting hits match OAK pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAA PA=36 matches OAK BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting walks match LAA pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting hits match LAA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:OAK PA=36 matches LAA BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | OAK | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.590 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.589632, 'sample_size': 608, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5559, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.572766, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | OAK current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 5, OAK 6. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 5 - OAK 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260627', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_OAK@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260626_OAK@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1275, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.562, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6836, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_LAA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@OAK. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01802074068732686}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01740953005386772}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01723162970667973}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01717736037965188}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.0166932069363516}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05343477770460599, '1': 0.08048449357157093, '2': 0.10848806793669231, '3': 0.13086794555365955, '4': 0.14127526964097756, '5': 0.13648362713595566, '6': 0.1179985082313575, '7': 0.09129647901469569, '8': 0.06321397362774946, '9': 0.03917001191984276, '10': 0.021720802514359438, '11': 0.010779027522363118, '12': 0.004787015626169971}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03971920077593216, '1': 0.060376326773134426, '2': 0.08365085414937108, '3': 0.10563591005741368, '4': 0.12158787892109253, '5': 0.12755764496590888, '6': 0.12197201782357538, '7': 0.10630444649981503, '8': 0.0844462091392718, '9': 0.06114295053772614, '10': 0.04035061256743805, '11': 0.02427120720779267, '12': 0.013306692762599024, '13': 0.0066494601431591385, '14': 0.0030285876757699254}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8622, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.352, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6836} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1275, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.562, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6836, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | OAK | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | current:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | OAK | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | OAK | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 5 - 4 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 5 - 4 OAK. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | OAK | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | OAK | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Moore: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=3; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | OAK | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy White: 2B current=0 box=1; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Denzel Clarke: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 5.171177076761104 | 5.2114082083396065 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | batting | 32 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAA | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | OAK | batting | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | OAK | pitching | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAA | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | LAA | pitching | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 136 | |||||||||
| simulation | OAK | batting | 33 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | OAK | pitching | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9.0 | 5 | 36 | 137 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | DH | Mike Trout | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | CF | Jose Siri | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | RF | Wade Meckler | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | 2B | Christian Moore | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | LAA | SS | Zach Neto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAA | LF | Bryce Teodosio | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | LF | Henry Bolte | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | DH | Shea Langeliers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 1B | Tommy White | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | 2B | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | SS | Alika Williams | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | 3B | Zack Gelof | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | CF | Denzel Clarke | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | OAK | C | Jonah Heim | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | OAK | RF | Lawrence Butler | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | LAA | 1 | SS | Zach Neto | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | DH | Mike Trout | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | 1B | Vaughn Grissom | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | 3B | Denzer Guzman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | C | Moisés Ballesteros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 6 | CF | Jose Siri | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | LAA | 7 | RF | Wade Meckler | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 8 | 2B | Christian Moore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAA | 9 | LF | Bryce Teodosio | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | LF | Henry Bolte | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | DH | Shea Langeliers | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | RF | Lawrence Butler | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | 3B | Zack Gelof | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | 1B | Tommy White | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 6 | 2B | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | OAK | 7 | C | Jonah Heim | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | OAK | 8 | SS | Alika Williams | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | OAK | 9 | CF | Denzel Clarke | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 5.02 | 1.55 |
| current | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.11 | 1.11 |
| current | LAA | 3 | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.29 |
| current | LAA | 4 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.06 | 1.28 |
| current | LAA | 5 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.66 | 0.98 |
| current | OAK | 1 | Brady Basso | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.38 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| current | OAK | 2 | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| current | OAK | 3 | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| current | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| current | OAK | 5 | Luis Medina | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | ||
| simulation | LAA | 1 | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 86 | 7.20 | 5.02 | 1.55 |
| simulation | LAA | 2 | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0.00 | 4.11 | 1.11 |
| simulation | LAA | 3 | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 4.06 | 1.28 |
| simulation | LAA | 4 | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.66 | 0.98 |
| simulation | LAA | 5 | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 1.29 |
| simulation | OAK | 1 | Brady Basso | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 78 | 10.38 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| simulation | OAK | 2 | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0.00 | 5.08 | 1.55 |
| simulation | OAK | 3 | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 6.19 | 1.79 |
| simulation | OAK | 4 | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.34 | 1.43 |
| simulation | OAK | 5 | Luis Medina | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.94 | 1.28 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 86 |
| LAA | Ben Joyce | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| LAA | José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| LAA | Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| LAA | Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| OAK | Brady Basso | Starter | 4.1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 78 |
| OAK | Seth Johnson | Reliever | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| OAK | Chris Roycroft | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| OAK | Hogan Harris | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| OAK | Luis Medina | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_MIA@CHC
20260922_MIA@CHC.json • 2026-09-22
MIA 4 - CHC 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: RBI current=0 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=5, sim=6). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=39 matches MIA BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches CHC BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.725 -> 0.646 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.72548, 'sample_size': 127, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5669, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64619, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 8, CHC 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 4 - CHC 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260906', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260906_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.73953, 'artifact': '20260905_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.724519, 'artifact': '20260904_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0872, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.7487, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9358, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIA@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016554876461835046}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015943673999542773}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015904028239450838}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01579770167309165}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015482868722313478}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.028705909740914637, '1': 0.043963329549083094, '2': 0.06229504340851287, '3': 0.08166953162028669, '4': 0.09906273005129254, '5': 0.11117424159533772, '6': 0.115436118136999, '7': 0.11089779418987658, '8': 0.09857068107377329, '9': 0.08106180355582282, '10': 0.06167773583081951, '11': 0.043419442045870386, '12': 0.028280280295517657, '13': 0.017042246250201187, '14': 0.009501969203178097, '15': 0.004901669849660955, '16': 0.0023394736028526835}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05544302104473786, '1': 0.08339519829268809, '2': 0.11195117495432373, '3': 0.13412499460470845, '4': 0.14341158321165826, '5': 0.13685232947926243, '6': 0.11655035738501873, '7': 0.08858669026079548, '8': 0.060092018709979406, '9': 0.036379653875476474, '10': 0.0196559384248341, '11': 0.009478125489816877, '12': 0.004078914266700017}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.0994, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.632, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.9358} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0872, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.7487, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9358, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 4 - 6 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 4 - 6 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | CHC | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIA | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | CHC | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIA | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:CHC PA=39 matches MIA BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | CHC | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIA PA=36 matches CHC BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIA | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.725 -> 0.646 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.72548, 'sample_size': 127, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5669, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64619, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | CHC current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIA current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 8, CHC 8. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 4 - CHC 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick evidence cleared the reversal bar after a blowout miss and an opponent breakout; this guardrail caps confidence and shifts runs toward the opponent, it has no authority to change the winner'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260906', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5800000000000001, 'artifact': '20260906_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260905', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.73953, 'artifact': '20260905_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.724519, 'artifact': '20260904_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0872, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.7487, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9358, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIA@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@CHC. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0068, 'away_run_delta': 0.0068, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016554876461835046}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015943673999542773}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015904028239450838}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01579770167309165}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.015482868722313478}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.028705909740914637, '1': 0.043963329549083094, '2': 0.06229504340851287, '3': 0.08166953162028669, '4': 0.09906273005129254, '5': 0.11117424159533772, '6': 0.115436118136999, '7': 0.11089779418987658, '8': 0.09857068107377329, '9': 0.08106180355582282, '10': 0.06167773583081951, '11': 0.043419442045870386, '12': 0.028280280295517657, '13': 0.017042246250201187, '14': 0.009501969203178097, '15': 0.004901669849660955, '16': 0.0023394736028526835}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05544302104473786, '1': 0.08339519829268809, '2': 0.11195117495432373, '3': 0.13412499460470845, '4': 0.14341158321165826, '5': 0.13685232947926243, '6': 0.11655035738501873, '7': 0.08858669026079548, '8': 0.060092018709979406, '9': 0.036379653875476474, '10': 0.0196559384248341, '11': 0.009478125489816877, '12': 0.004078914266700017}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.0994, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.632, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.9358} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0872, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.7487, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9358, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | CHC | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIA | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | current:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | CHC | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIA | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | CHC | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIA | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 4 - 6 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 4 - 6 CHC. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | CHC | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIA | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | CHC | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIA | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=6). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | CHC | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: RBI current=0 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=5, sim=6). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIA | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.9290970901058255 | 5.8281509179821365 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 6 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 6 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIA | pitching | 8 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | CHC | batting | 33 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | CHC | pitching | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIA | batting | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIA | pitching | 8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 8.0 | 6 | 39 | 169 | |||||||||
| simulation | CHC | batting | 31 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | CHC | pitching | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 137 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | DH | Kyle Stowers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | C | Agustín Ramírez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | CF | Esteury Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | SS | Otto Lopez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 1B | Deyvison De Los Santos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIA | 2B | Jared Serna | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIA | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | 3B | Javier Sanoja | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIA | RF | Griffin Conine | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | DH | Michael Conforto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | 1B | Michael Busch | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 3B | Pedro Ramirez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | 2B | Nico Hoerner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | LF | Ian Happ | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | CHC | C | Carson Kelly | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | CHC | SS | Dansby Swanson | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | LF | Heriberto Hernández | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | SS | Otto Lopez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | DH | Kyle Stowers | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | 3B | Javier Sanoja | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 5 | C | Agustín Ramírez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIA | 6 | CF | Esteury Ruiz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 7 | RF | Griffin Conine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIA | 8 | 1B | Deyvison De Los Santos | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIA | 9 | 2B | Jared Serna | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | RF | Seiya Suzuki | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | 1B | Michael Busch | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | DH | Michael Conforto | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | CHC | 5 | LF | Ian Happ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 6 | 2B | Nico Hoerner | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | CHC | 7 | 3B | Pedro Ramirez | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 8 | C | Carson Kelly | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | CHC | 9 | SS | Dansby Swanson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIA | 1 | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.64 | 4.50 | 1.34 |
| current | MIA | 2 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 4.69 | 1.54 |
| current | MIA | 3 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.44 | 1.32 |
| current | MIA | 4 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.16 | 1.12 |
| current | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.06 | 3.80 | 1.10 |
| current | CHC | 2 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.62 | 1.17 |
| current | CHC | 3 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.48 | 1.27 |
| current | CHC | 4 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 3.97 | 1.28 |
| simulation | MIA | 1 | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 9.64 | 4.50 | 1.34 |
| simulation | MIA | 2 | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.44 | 1.32 |
| simulation | MIA | 3 | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.16 | 1.12 |
| simulation | MIA | 4 | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 6.75 | 4.69 | 1.54 |
| simulation | CHC | 1 | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 89 | 5.06 | 3.80 | 1.10 |
| simulation | CHC | 2 | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 3.48 | 1.27 |
| simulation | CHC | 3 | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 5.40 | 3.97 | 1.28 |
| simulation | CHC | 4 | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.62 | 1.17 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Janson Junk | Starter | 4.2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 105 |
| MIA | Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 |
| MIA | Calvin Faucher | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| MIA | Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| CHC | Shota Imanaga | Starter | 5.1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 89 |
| CHC | Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| CHC | Jacob Webb | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| CHC | Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_MIL@PHI
20260922_MIL@PHI.json • 2026-09-22
MIL 7 - PHI 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=11, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=3; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match PHI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match PHI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=42 matches PHI BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match MIL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match MIL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=42 matches MIL BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.813 -> 0.684 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.812507, 'sample_size': 721, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.684354, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - PHI 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0042, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.1247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1486, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIL@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0614, 'away_run_delta': 0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014573059704334214}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01439655865740624}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014198771249244232}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014026803382411362}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.013980176561421193}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04966418821007597, '1': 0.0749909075192434, '2': 0.10183792629263153, '3': 0.12437874054997568, '4': 0.1366213058608974, '5': 0.13496662221817937, '6': 0.1199140291307264, '7': 0.09581848101364855, '8': 0.0688595591096189, '9': 0.04450562079397098, '10': 0.02587028174140091, '11': 0.01352455932659124, '12': 0.0063588818806453, '13': 0.002688896352394295}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02151953985864243, '1': 0.03312541893606156, '2': 0.04765974437656828, '3': 0.0640920213014814, '4': 0.08055975903916963, '5': 0.094644259841805, '6': 0.10392794271561771, '7': 0.10666754802630818, '8': 0.10232793833529358, '9': 0.09175253390277009, '10': 0.07689601609543746, '11': 0.060235364633589535, '12': 0.04410229377193126, '13': 0.030180938645310643, '14': 0.01930484138237003, '15': 0.011541484249777918, '16': 0.006449395635557363, '17': 0.003368513606918416, '18': 0.0016444456453896439}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.2244, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1486} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0042, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.1247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1486, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 4 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 4 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting walks match PHI pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting hits match PHI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIL PA=42 matches PHI BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match MIL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match MIL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=42 matches MIL BF=42. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.813 -> 0.684 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.812507, 'sample_size': 721, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.684354, 'published_confidence': 0.6, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - PHI 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0042, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.1247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1486, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIL@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0614, 'away_run_delta': 0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014573059704334214}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01439655865740624}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014198771249244232}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014026803382411362}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.013980176561421193}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04966418821007597, '1': 0.0749909075192434, '2': 0.10183792629263153, '3': 0.12437874054997568, '4': 0.1366213058608974, '5': 0.13496662221817937, '6': 0.1199140291307264, '7': 0.09581848101364855, '8': 0.0688595591096189, '9': 0.04450562079397098, '10': 0.02587028174140091, '11': 0.01352455932659124, '12': 0.0063588818806453, '13': 0.002688896352394295}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02151953985864243, '1': 0.03312541893606156, '2': 0.04765974437656828, '3': 0.0640920213014814, '4': 0.08055975903916963, '5': 0.094644259841805, '6': 0.10392794271561771, '7': 0.10666754802630818, '8': 0.10232793833529358, '9': 0.09175253390277009, '10': 0.07689601609543746, '11': 0.060235364633589535, '12': 0.04410229377193126, '13': 0.030180938645310643, '14': 0.01930484138237003, '15': 0.011541484249777918, '16': 0.006449395635557363, '17': 0.003368513606918416, '18': 0.0016444456453896439}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.2244, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.008, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.1486} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0042, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.1247, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.1486, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 4 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 4 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 11. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-4 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=11, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=3; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8775638753360995 | 5.441149183485023 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 7 | 4 | 0.600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 7 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 7 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 7 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | PHI | batting | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PHI | pitching | 9 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIL | batting | 39 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIL | pitching | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10.0 | 4 | 42 | 193 | |||||||||
| simulation | PHI | batting | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | PHI | pitching | 9 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10.0 | 7 | 42 | 154 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 2B | Brice Turang | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | LF | Jackson Chourio | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | RF | Luis Lara | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | C | William Contreras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | 1B | Jake Bauers | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | DH | Christian Yelich | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIL | SS | Cooper Pratt | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | MIL | 3B | David Hamilton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | PHI | RF | Bryce Harper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 1B | Alec Bohm | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 3B | Bryson Stott | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | SS | Trea Turner | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | C | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 2B | Luis Arraez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | LF | Brandon Marsh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | CF | Justin Crawford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | CF | Garrett Mitchell | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | LF | Jackson Chourio | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | 2B | Brice Turang | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | C | William Contreras | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | 1B | Jake Bauers | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | DH | Christian Yelich | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 7 | RF | Luis Lara | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | MIL | 8 | SS | Cooper Pratt | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIL | 9 | 3B | David Hamilton | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | SS | Trea Turner | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | RF | Bryce Harper | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | 2B | Luis Arraez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | 1B | Alec Bohm | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 6 | 3B | Bryson Stott | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 7 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 8 | LF | Brandon Marsh | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PHI | 9 | CF | Justin Crawford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIL | 1 | Dustin May | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 4.61 | 1.32 |
| current | MIL | 2 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.27 | 1.37 |
| current | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 1.03 |
| current | MIL | 4 | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.16 | 1.37 |
| current | MIL | 5 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.11 | 0.87 |
| current | MIL | 7 | DL Hall | Reliever | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 2.99 | 1.06 |
| current | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| current | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.80 | 3.36 | 1.03 |
| current | PHI | 4 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54.00 | 2.96 | 1.18 |
| simulation | MIL | 1 | Dustin May | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 3.86 | 4.61 | 1.32 |
| simulation | MIL | 2 | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 13.50 | 2.11 | 0.87 |
| simulation | MIL | 3 | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 1.03 |
| simulation | MIL | 4 | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.27 | 1.37 |
| simulation | MIL | 5 | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 0.00 | 4.16 | 1.37 |
| simulation | MIL | 6 | DL Hall | Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0.00 | 2.03 | 1.06 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 26 | 103 | 4.50 | 2.99 | 1.06 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 10.80 | 3.36 | 1.03 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 13.50 | 2.96 | 1.18 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | Dustin May | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 85 |
| MIL | Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| MIL | Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| MIL | Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 29 |
| MIL | Trevor Megill | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 33 |
| MIL | DL Hall | Reliever | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| PHI | Zack Wheeler | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 103 |
| PHI | Jhoan Duran | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| PHI | Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| PHI | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_MIN@SF
20260922_MIN@SF.json • 2026-09-22
MIN 5 - SF 3
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=46; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Walker Jenkins: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=2; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Turner Hill: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=5; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match SF pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match SF pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=49 matches SF BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match MIN pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=44 matches MIN BF=44. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 721, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53315, 'published_confidence': 0.515422, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 10, SF 2. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 5 - SF 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.567503, 'artifact': '20260921_MIN@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1244, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIN@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.025, 'away_run_delta': -0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020135194409712124}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019499377959703138}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019264884419349954}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018792848496616832}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01865655006845656}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05501378994339653, '1': 0.08277375958986602, '2': 0.1112144360187515, '3': 0.13343722828716215, '4': 0.14296845598147795, '5': 0.13678888438085227, '6': 0.11687153663434066, '7': 0.08916903504656427, '8': 0.06075286252311291, '9': 0.0369629640914412, '10': 0.020082334712323294, '11': 0.009743365132333955, '12': 0.00422134765837743}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.053040287839271005, '1': 0.07991178015129281, '2': 0.10780297291264077, '3': 0.13021639543229116, '4': 0.14083662211698436, '5': 0.13638937222788045, '6': 0.11826615020043019, '7': 0.09182382688577015, '8': 0.0638359486426912, '9': 0.039736557849543344, '10': 0.02214777845188687, '11': 0.011053125379188124, '12': 0.0049391819101295515}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1656, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.048, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1244} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1244, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 207. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 207. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 5 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 5 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SF | BATTING_REALISM | current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | MIN | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SF | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | MIN | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SF | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting walks match SF pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting home runs match SF pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting hits match SF pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:MIN PA=49 matches SF BF=49. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | MIN | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SF batting walks match MIN pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SF batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SF batting hits match MIN pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SF PA=44 matches MIN BF=44. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SF | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 721, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5562, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53315, 'published_confidence': 0.515422, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | MIN current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SF current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SF current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.485. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 12 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 10, SF 2. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 5 - SF 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.567503, 'artifact': '20260921_MIN@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1244, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_MIN@SF. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@SF. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.025, 'away_run_delta': -0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020135194409712124}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019499377959703138}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019264884419349954}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018792848496616832}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01865655006845656}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05501378994339653, '1': 0.08277375958986602, '2': 0.1112144360187515, '3': 0.13343722828716215, '4': 0.14296845598147795, '5': 0.13678888438085227, '6': 0.11687153663434066, '7': 0.08916903504656427, '8': 0.06075286252311291, '9': 0.0369629640914412, '10': 0.020082334712323294, '11': 0.009743365132333955, '12': 0.00422134765837743}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.053040287839271005, '1': 0.07991178015129281, '2': 0.10780297291264077, '3': 0.13021639543229116, '4': 0.14083662211698436, '5': 0.13638937222788045, '6': 0.11826615020043019, '7': 0.09182382688577015, '8': 0.0638359486426912, '9': 0.039736557849543344, '10': 0.02214777845188687, '11': 0.011053125379188124, '12': 0.0049391819101295515}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1656, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.048, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1244} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIN 5 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'MIN', 'model_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIN', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1244, 'winner': 'MIN', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 207. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | MIN | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SF | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 207. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | current:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | MIN | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SF | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | MIN | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 12.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SF | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 5 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 5 - 3 SF. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIN, simulation=MIN, published=MIN. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.515. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIN wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 8. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 12). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | MIN | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SF | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | MIN | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SF | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=46; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | MIN | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Walker Jenkins: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=2; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SF | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Turner Hill: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=5; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.571395042631441 | 4.012320323667293 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 4 | 0.515 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 5 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| SF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIN | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | MIN | pitching | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | SF | batting | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SF | pitching | 10 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | MIN | batting | 46 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | MIN | pitching | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12.0 | 3 | 44 | 191 | |||||||||
| simulation | SF | batting | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | SF | pitching | 10 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 12.0 | 5 | 49 | 207 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIN | RF | Luke Keaschall | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | CF | Walker Jenkins | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 3B | Brooks Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | LF | Emmanuel Rodriguez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 2B | Kody Clemens | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | DH | Josh Bell | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | 1B | Royce Lewis | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | MIN | C | Victor Caratini | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | MIN | SS | Ryan Kreidler | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SF | 2B | Jonah Cox | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | 1B | Victor Bericoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | LF | Turner Hill | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | DH | Bo Davidson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | RF | Scott Bandura | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | 3B | Shay Whitcomb | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | CF | Drew Gilbert | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SF | SS | Christian Koss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SF | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | MIN | 1 | RF | Luke Keaschall | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | 3B | Brooks Lee | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | 2B | Kody Clemens | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | DH | Josh Bell | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.167 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | CF | Walker Jenkins | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 6 | LF | Emmanuel Rodriguez | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | MIN | 7 | 1B | Royce Lewis | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | MIN | 8 | C | Victor Caratini | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | MIN | 9 | SS | Ryan Kreidler | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | CF | Drew Gilbert | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | 2B | Jonah Cox | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | 1B | Victor Bericoto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | LF | Turner Hill | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | DH | Bo Davidson | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | 3B | Shay Whitcomb | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 7 | RF | Scott Bandura | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SF | 8 | C | Drew Cavanaugh | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SF | 9 | SS | Christian Koss | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | MIN | 1 | Taj Bradley | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 3.81 | 1.23 |
| current | MIN | 2 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 1.02 |
| current | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.46 | 1.31 |
| current | MIN | 4 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.48 | 1.51 |
| current | MIN | 7 | Taylor Rogers | Reliever | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | SF | 1 | Anthony Molina | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 4.18 | 1.11 |
| current | SF | 2 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 5.02 | 1.64 |
| current | SF | 3 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.65 | 1.46 |
| current | SF | 4 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.54 |
| current | SF | 5 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.14 | 1.10 |
| current | SF | 6 | Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.68 | 1.54 | |
| current | SF | 7 | Cesar Perdomo | Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| simulation | MIN | 1 | Taj Bradley | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 106 | 4.50 | 3.81 | 1.23 |
| simulation | MIN | 2 | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 4.48 | 1.51 |
| simulation | MIN | 3 | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 3.46 | 1.31 |
| simulation | MIN | 4 | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 1.02 |
| simulation | MIN | 5 | Taylor Rogers | Reliever | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 0.00 | 4.01 | 1.56 |
| simulation | SF | 1 | Anthony Molina | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 95 | 5.40 | 4.18 | 1.11 |
| simulation | SF | 2 | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 3.65 | 1.46 |
| simulation | SF | 3 | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.14 | 1.10 |
| simulation | SF | 4 | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9.00 | 5.02 | 1.64 |
| simulation | SF | 5 | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 1.54 |
| simulation | SF | 6 | Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 0.00 | 4.68 | 1.54 |
| simulation | SF | 7 | Cesar Perdomo | Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27.00 | 3.72 | 1.50 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Taj Bradley | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 106 |
| MIN | A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| MIN | Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| MIN | Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| MIN | Taylor Rogers | Reliever | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 |
| SF | Anthony Molina | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 95 |
| SF | Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| SF | Dylan Smith | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| SF | Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| SF | Trent Harris | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 |
| SF | Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 2.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 33 |
| SF | Cesar Perdomo | Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_NYM@TEX
20260922_NYM@TEX.json • 2026-09-22
NYM 4 - TEX 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=11; HR: current=2, sim=3). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Torrens: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Jung: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Elias Díaz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Danny Jansen: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match TEX pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match TEX pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=33 matches TEX BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match NYM pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match NYM pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=40 matches NYM BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.609 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.609047, 'sample_size': 634, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.571, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.590023, 'published_confidence': 0.600919, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.399. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 5, TEX 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - TEX 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX. | {'winner_confidence': 0.600919, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_NYM@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016642182831584123}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016460461032581333}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01616913016613526}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015992573794183618}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015492401343453503}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03219874046114436, '1': 0.04919334962504984, '2': 0.06920126974715787, '3': 0.08963175247116709, '4': 0.10689314838767018, '5': 0.11737564890221065, '6': 0.11867146400941878, '7': 0.11047264454756091, '8': 0.09468983445323256, '9': 0.07472950757442277, '10': 0.054302652034029016, '11': 0.03633206782962772, '12': 0.022382023577241537, '13': 0.01269546866560099, '14': 0.006630377923597569, '15': 0.0031883646493194432, '16': 0.001411685141548513}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05251036502724695, '1': 0.07914195912844203, '2': 0.10688018789179013, '3': 0.12933506109467954, '4': 0.14023744436373733, '5': 0.13625120664940932, '6': 0.11861657441633451, '7': 0.09252925180707822, '8': 0.06467573538053574, '9': 0.04050721197602574, '10': 0.022732750324085744, '11': 0.011431422165958261, '12': 0.005150829774676596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1122, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.404, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2143} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0279, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.404, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2143, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 6 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 6 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TEX | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TEX | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match TEX pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match TEX pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=33 matches TEX BF=33. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting walks match NYM pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting hits match NYM pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TEX PA=40 matches NYM BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TEX | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.609 -> 0.590 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.609047, 'sample_size': 634, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.571, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.590023, 'published_confidence': 0.600919, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TEX current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.399. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.674. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 5, TEX 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - TEX 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX. | {'winner_confidence': 0.600919, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_NYM@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@TEX. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016642182831584123}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016460461032581333}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01616913016613526}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015992573794183618}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015492401343453503}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03219874046114436, '1': 0.04919334962504984, '2': 0.06920126974715787, '3': 0.08963175247116709, '4': 0.10689314838767018, '5': 0.11737564890221065, '6': 0.11867146400941878, '7': 0.11047264454756091, '8': 0.09468983445323256, '9': 0.07472950757442277, '10': 0.054302652034029016, '11': 0.03633206782962772, '12': 0.022382023577241537, '13': 0.01269546866560099, '14': 0.006630377923597569, '15': 0.0031883646493194432, '16': 0.001411685141548513}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05251036502724695, '1': 0.07914195912844203, '2': 0.10688018789179013, '3': 0.12933506109467954, '4': 0.14023744436373733, '5': 0.13625120664940932, '6': 0.11861657441633451, '7': 0.09252925180707822, '8': 0.06467573538053574, '9': 0.04050721197602574, '10': 0.022732750324085744, '11': 0.011431422165958261, '12': 0.005150829774676596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.1122, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.404, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2143} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0279, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.404, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2143, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TEX | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TEX | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TEX | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 6 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 6 TEX. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.601. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TEX | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TEX | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=11; HR: current=2, sim=3). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Torrens: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TEX | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Jung: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Elias Díaz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Danny Jansen: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.504189328721297 | 4.654877300049959 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 6 | 0.601 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYM | pitching | 7 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | TEX | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TEX | pitching | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYM | batting | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYM | pitching | 11 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | 6 | 40 | 171 | |||||||||
| simulation | TEX | batting | 35 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TEX | pitching | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 33 | 138 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | 1B | Mark Vientos | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | RF | Carson Benge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | LF | Juan Soto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | DH | Francisco Alvarez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | CF | A.J. Ewing | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 3B | Bo Bichette | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | C | Luis Torrens | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYM | 2B | Marcus Semien | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | LF | Wyatt Langford | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 3B | Josh Jung | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | CF | Ezequiel Duran | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | SS | Corey Seager | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | DH | Elias Díaz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | 1B | Jake Burger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TEX | 2B | Justin Foscue | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TEX | C | Danny Jansen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TEX | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | SS | Francisco Lindor | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | LF | Juan Soto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | 3B | Bo Bichette | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | 1B | Mark Vientos | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | RF | Carson Benge | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 6 | 2B | Marcus Semien | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 7 | DH | Francisco Alvarez | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 8 | CF | A.J. Ewing | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 9 | C | Luis Torrens | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | LF | Wyatt Langford | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | SS | Corey Seager | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | 3B | Josh Jung | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | 1B | Jake Burger | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | RF | Brandon Nimmo | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TEX | 6 | CF | Ezequiel Duran | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 7 | 2B | Justin Foscue | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TEX | 8 | DH | Elias Díaz | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TEX | 9 | C | Danny Jansen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | 1 | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.18 | 4.74 | 1.32 |
| current | NYM | 2 | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 4.45 | 1.29 |
| current | NYM | 3 | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 0.86 |
| current | NYM | 4 | Dedniel Núñez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 54.00 | 3.71 | 1.00 |
| current | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 4.67 | 1.35 |
| current | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 0.75 |
| current | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 2.96 | 1.16 |
| current | TEX | 4 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.29 | 1.26 |
| current | TEX | 5 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.44 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 120 | 6.35 | 4.74 | 1.32 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 0.86 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 9.00 | 4.45 | 1.29 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | Dedniel Núñez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 27.00 | 3.71 | 1.00 |
| simulation | TEX | 1 | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 77 | 3.86 | 4.67 | 1.35 |
| simulation | TEX | 2 | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 0.75 |
| simulation | TEX | 3 | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 13.50 | 2.96 | 1.16 |
| simulation | TEX | 4 | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 3.24 | 1.44 |
| simulation | TEX | 5 | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.29 | 1.26 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Sean Manaea | Starter | 5.2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 120 |
| NYM | Jonathan Pintaro | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 |
| NYM | Nathan Lavender | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| NYM | Dedniel Núñez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 77 |
| TEX | Jacob Latz | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| TEX | Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| TEX | Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| TEX | Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_SD@LAD
20260922_SD@LAD.json • 2026-09-22
SD 4 - LAD 6
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; BB: current=3, sim=4). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match SD pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match SD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=40 matches SD BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match LAD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=43 matches LAD BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 384, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5599, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.535, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, LAD 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - LAD 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260704', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260704_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260703_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_LAD@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_LAD@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.593, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_SD@LAD. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@LAD. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018526113511337337}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01844343441079805}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018245728185989026}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01816430040059957}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.016906251202667363}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04839716585087043, '1': 0.07314040621783151, '2': 0.09958061757233241, '3': 0.12214403755870143, '4': 0.13497388158224374, '5': 0.13437151459800353, '6': 0.1205159966244335, '7': 0.09737830032134678, '8': 0.07088587303120207, '9': 0.04648760842535588, '10': 0.02746595633600156, '11': 0.014619491110093271, '12': 0.007010512935224367, '13': 0.0030286378363596138}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05016788973826385, '1': 0.07572568406498245, '2': 0.1027307489173719, '3': 0.1252557235850542, '4': 0.13725702553829872, '5': 0.1351796953018006, '6': 0.11965427515758538, '7': 0.09518858134499898, '8': 0.06805834208498521, '9': 0.04373385427286586, '10': 0.025257712679724494, '11': 0.013110225469352164, '12': 0.00611598173706504, '13': 0.0025642601076510244}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.0609, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.593} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.593, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 LAD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 LAD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | SD | BATTING_REALISM | current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | LAD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | SD | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | LAD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | SD | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting walks match SD pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting home runs match SD pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting hits match SD pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:LAD PA=40 matches SD BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | LAD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:SD batting walks match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:SD batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:SD batting hits match LAD pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:SD batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:SD PA=43 matches LAD BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | SD | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 384, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5599, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.535, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | LAD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | SD current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | SD current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, LAD 11. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: SD 4 - LAD 6. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260704', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260704_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260703_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_SD@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260628', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260628_LAD@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260627_LAD@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.593, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_SD@LAD. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@LAD. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018526113511337337}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01844343441079805}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018245728185989026}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01816430040059957}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.016906251202667363}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04839716585087043, '1': 0.07314040621783151, '2': 0.09958061757233241, '3': 0.12214403755870143, '4': 0.13497388158224374, '5': 0.13437151459800353, '6': 0.1205159966244335, '7': 0.09737830032134678, '8': 0.07088587303120207, '9': 0.04648760842535588, '10': 0.02746595633600156, '11': 0.014619491110093271, '12': 0.007010512935224367, '13': 0.0030286378363596138}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05016788973826385, '1': 0.07572568406498245, '2': 0.1027307489173719, '3': 0.1252557235850542, '4': 0.13725702553829872, '5': 0.1351796953018006, '6': 0.11965427515758538, '7': 0.09518858134499898, '8': 0.06805834208498521, '9': 0.04373385427286586, '10': 0.025257712679724494, '11': 0.013110225469352164, '12': 0.00611598173706504, '13': 0.0025642601076510244}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.0609, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.276, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.593} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 6 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0408, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.593, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | LAD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | SD | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | current:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | LAD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | SD | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | LAD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | SD | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 6 LAD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 4 - 6 LAD. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 10. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: LAD wins 6-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | LAD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | SD | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | LAD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | SD | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | LAD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; BB: current=3, sim=4). | New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | SD | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ty France: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.75378154488053 | 5.281393630446507 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.530 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 6 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 6 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 6 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 6 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | batting | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | SD | pitching | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | LAD | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | LAD | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | SD | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | SD | pitching | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8.1 | 6 | 40 | 168 | |||||||||
| simulation | LAD | batting | 36 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | LAD | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 9.0 | 4 | 43 | 189 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 1B | Ty France | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | LF | Dustin Harris | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | CF | Jackson Merrill | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | 3B | Manny Machado | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | SD | DH | Austin Hays | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | C | Luis Campusano | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | SD | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | SD | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAD | C | Will Smith | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 3B | Max Muncy | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | DH | Josue De Paula | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAD | SS | Mookie Betts | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | RF | Kyle Tucker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | LAD | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | CF | Andy Pages | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | LAD | 2B | Tommy Edman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | SD | 1 | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | LF | Dustin Harris | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | 3B | Manny Machado | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | SD | 4 | 1B | Ty France | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 5 | CF | Jackson Merrill | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | SD | 6 | DH | Austin Hays | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SD | 7 | SS | Xander Bogaerts | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 |
| simulation | SD | 8 | C | Luis Campusano | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | SD | 9 | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | SS | Mookie Betts | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | C | Will Smith | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | 3B | Max Muncy | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 6 | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | LAD | 7 | DH | Josue De Paula | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 8 | CF | Andy Pages | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | LAD | 9 | 2B | Tommy Edman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | SD | 1 | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.00 | 3.03 | 1.16 |
| current | SD | 2 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1.80 | 0.97 |
| current | SD | 3 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| current | LAD | 1 | Brock Stewart | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.15 | 2.19 | 0.93 |
| current | LAD | 3 | Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.52 | 1.17 |
| current | LAD | 4 | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.28 | 1.14 |
| current | LAD | 5 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.01 |
| current | LAD | 6 | Alex Vesia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.78 | 1.11 |
| simulation | SD | 1 | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 120 | 4.50 | 3.03 | 1.16 |
| simulation | SD | 2 | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| simulation | SD | 3 | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 20.25 | 1.80 | 0.97 |
| simulation | LAD | 1 | Brock Stewart | Starter | 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 92 | 4.15 | 2.19 | 0.93 |
| simulation | LAD | 2 | Tanner Scott | Closer | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.01 |
| simulation | LAD | 3 | Alex Vesia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0.00 | 2.78 | 1.11 |
| simulation | LAD | 4 | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 18.00 | 3.28 | 1.14 |
| simulation | LAD | 5 | Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 3.52 | 1.17 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Michael King | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 120 |
| SD | Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
| SD | Mason Miller | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| LAD | Brock Stewart | Starter | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 92 |
| LAD | Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 21 |
| LAD | Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| LAD | Tanner Scott | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 38 |
| LAD | Alex Vesia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_STL@PIT
20260922_STL@PIT.json • 2026-09-22
STL 4 - PIT 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Konnor Griffin: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: RBI current=1 box=2; Leonardo Bernal: SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=30 matches STL BF=30. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.562 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 663, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5611, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56235, 'published_confidence': 0.538662, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: STL 8, PIT 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - PIT 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559749, 'artifact': '20260830_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260829_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260828_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0264, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.49, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3334, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_STL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.075, 'away_run_delta': -0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01874553281085251}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01833624081403006}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017967726703155436}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01757541740926132}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0174712590381}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04396234046024391, '1': 0.06663453256853556, '2': 0.09152929969611466, '3': 0.11393657421528262, '4': 0.12853115450458066, '5': 0.1314001598484035, '6': 0.121737845739038, '7': 0.10221098289907057, '8': 0.0777699376415623, '9': 0.053625106843242114, '10': 0.033509413290951785, '11': 0.01897613280276835, '12': 0.00973847226835575, '13': 0.004529144599490551, '14': 0.001908902622359785}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.054718993236023666, '1': 0.08234674000013913, '2': 0.11070735658696271, '3': 0.13296223580136135, '4': 0.1426598935075821, '5': 0.13674052393760266, '6': 0.11708852677323993, '7': 0.08956806700028855, '8': 0.06120879356446644, '9': 0.03736768518102923, '10': 0.02037981930997646, '11': 0.009929473495083193, '12': 0.004321891606244724}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3622, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.28, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3334} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0264, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.49, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3334, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | STL | BATTING_REALISM | current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PIT | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | STL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PIT | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | STL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 12. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PIT PA=30 matches STL BF=30. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PIT | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:STL PA=36 matches PIT BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | STL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.562 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 663, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5611, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56235, 'published_confidence': 0.538662, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PIT current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | STL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | STL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: STL 8, PIT 4. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - PIT 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559749, 'artifact': '20260830_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260829_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'PIT', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260828_PIT@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0264, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.49, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3334, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_STL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@PIT. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.075, 'away_run_delta': -0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01874553281085251}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01833624081403006}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017967726703155436}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01757541740926132}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0174712590381}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04396234046024391, '1': 0.06663453256853556, '2': 0.09152929969611466, '3': 0.11393657421528262, '4': 0.12853115450458066, '5': 0.1314001598484035, '6': 0.121737845739038, '7': 0.10221098289907057, '8': 0.0777699376415623, '9': 0.053625106843242114, '10': 0.033509413290951785, '11': 0.01897613280276835, '12': 0.00973847226835575, '13': 0.004529144599490551, '14': 0.001908902622359785}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.054718993236023666, '1': 0.08234674000013913, '2': 0.11070735658696271, '3': 0.13296223580136135, '4': 0.1426598935075821, '5': 0.13674052393760266, '6': 0.11708852677323993, '7': 0.08956806700028855, '8': 0.06120879356446644, '9': 0.03736768518102923, '10': 0.02037981930997646, '11': 0.009929473495083193, '12': 0.004321891606244724}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3622, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.28, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3334} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0264, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.49, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3334, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PIT | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | STL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PIT | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | STL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PIT | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | STL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 5 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 5 PIT. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PIT | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | STL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | STL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | PIT | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | STL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PIT | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Konnor Griffin: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | STL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: RBI current=1 box=2; Leonardo Bernal: SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.459494787448133 | 5.403853993839366 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.539 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | batting | 33 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | STL | pitching | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | PIT | batting | 35 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PIT | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | STL | batting | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | STL | pitching | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 8.0 | 5 | 30 | 139 | |||||||||
| simulation | PIT | batting | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PIT | pitching | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 4 | 36 | 147 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | 2B | JJ Wetherholt | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | DH | Iván Herrera | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | LF | Bryan Torres | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | STL | 3B | Thomas Saggese | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | RF | Jordan Walker | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | C | Leonardo Bernal | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | 1B | Alec Burleson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | STL | CF | Nathan Church | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | STL | SS | Masyn Winn | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PIT | SS | Konnor Griffin | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | CF | Oneil Cruz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PIT | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | RF | Ronny Simon | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PIT | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | STL | 1 | 2B | JJ Wetherholt | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | DH | Iván Herrera | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | 1B | Alec Burleson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 4 | RF | Jordan Walker | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 5 | C | Leonardo Bernal | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | STL | 6 | LF | Bryan Torres | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | STL | 7 | 3B | Thomas Saggese | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 8 | CF | Nathan Church | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | STL | 9 | SS | Masyn Winn | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | SS | Konnor Griffin | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | 2B | Brandon Lowe | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | LF | Bryan Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | CF | Oneil Cruz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | C | Rafael Flores Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 6 | DH | Ryan O'Hearn | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | PIT | 7 | RF | Ronny Simon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | PIT | 8 | 1B | Spencer Horwitz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PIT | 9 | 3B | Jacob Gonzalez | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | STL | 1 | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.38 | 3.70 | 1.26 |
| current | STL | 4 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| current | STL | 5 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 81.00 | 4.29 | 1.40 |
| current | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 4.17 | 1.19 |
| current | PIT | 2 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.36 | 1.10 |
| current | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.79 | 0.97 |
| current | PIT | 4 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 2.32 | 1.00 |
| current | PIT | 5 | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.19 |
| simulation | STL | 1 | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 89 | 3.38 | 3.70 | 1.26 |
| simulation | STL | 2 | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 0.00 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| simulation | STL | 3 | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 81.00 | 4.29 | 1.40 |
| simulation | PIT | 1 | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 1.80 | 4.17 | 1.19 |
| simulation | PIT | 2 | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 18.00 | 2.32 | 1.00 |
| simulation | PIT | 3 | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0.00 | 2.79 | 0.97 |
| simulation | PIT | 4 | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9.00 | 3.36 | 1.10 |
| simulation | PIT | 5 | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.19 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Andre Pallante | Starter | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 89 |
| STL | Riley O'Brien | Closer | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 36 |
| STL | George Soriano | Setup Man | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| PIT | Jared Jones | Starter | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 76 |
| PIT | Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| PIT | Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| PIT | Mason Montgomery | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| PIT | Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_TB@NYY
20260922_TB@NYY.json • 2026-09-22
TB 3 - NYY 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=41 matches TB BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=37 matches NYY BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.542 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 418, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5742, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54215, 'published_confidence': 0.534918, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.765/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, NYY 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - NYY 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0798, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0519, 'away_run_delta': -0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023775234282643852}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02367872370940118}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023560423806430014}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023464785211227662}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021061008414578045}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06754021958834518, '1': 0.1007549116457567, '2': 0.1319418697833856, '3': 0.15167419255236253, '4': 0.1530570711371964, '5': 0.13558378541339447, '6': 0.1054325622477747, '7': 0.07197048287670531, '8': 0.04312674904601812, '9': 0.02268567345106441, '10': 0.010475367804362895, '11': 0.004246191086855278, '12': 0.0015109233667785398}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07034955035165352, '1': 0.10474893686872565, '2': 0.136401658457503, '3': 0.1553357457188786, '4': 0.15470519286349196, '5': 0.1347473104393432, '6': 0.10264009569004623, '7': 0.06837474506458452, '8': 0.03983420195671947, '9': 0.020295429696302256, '10': 0.009043199450248899, '11': 0.003523933442502917}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2903, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0823} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0798, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 4 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 4 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=41 matches TB BF=41. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=37 matches NYY BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.542 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 418, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5742, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.54215, 'published_confidence': 0.534918, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.465. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.765/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, NYY 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - NYY 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0798, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0519, 'away_run_delta': -0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023775234282643852}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02367872370940118}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023560423806430014}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023464785211227662}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021061008414578045}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06754021958834518, '1': 0.1007549116457567, '2': 0.1319418697833856, '3': 0.15167419255236253, '4': 0.1530570711371964, '5': 0.13558378541339447, '6': 0.1054325622477747, '7': 0.07197048287670531, '8': 0.04312674904601812, '9': 0.02268567345106441, '10': 0.010475367804362895, '11': 0.004246191086855278, '12': 0.0015109233667785398}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07034955035165352, '1': 0.10474893686872565, '2': 0.136401658457503, '3': 0.1553357457188786, '4': 0.15470519286349196, '5': 0.1347473104393432, '6': 0.10264009569004623, '7': 0.06837474506458452, '8': 0.03983420195671947, '9': 0.020295429696302256, '10': 0.009043199450248899, '11': 0.003523933442502917}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2903, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0823} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0798, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.75, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 4 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 4 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.535. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=2). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=10). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.8083426116269434 | 5.205999797915791 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.535 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TB | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | NYY | batting | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYY | pitching | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TB | batting | 34 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | TB | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10.0 | 4 | 41 | 165 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYY | batting | 37 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | |||||||
| simulation | NYY | pitching | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10.0 | 3 | 37 | 166 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | DH | Yandy Díaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 3B | Junior Caminero | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | C | Liam Hicks | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | LF | Chandler Simpson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 2B | Richie Palacios | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TB | SS | Jorge Mateo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | TB | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | RF | Heliot Ramos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | DH | Ben Rice | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | LF | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 3B | José Caballero | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | C | Ali Sánchez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | CF | Spencer Jones | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | TB | 1 | DH | Yandy Díaz | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | 3B | Junior Caminero | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | C | Liam Hicks | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | LF | Chandler Simpson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 6 | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 7 | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 8 | SS | Jorge Mateo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 9 | 2B | Richie Palacios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | DH | Ben Rice | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | LF | Cody Bellinger | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | RF | Heliot Ramos | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | NYY | 6 | CF | Spencer Jones | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 7 | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 8 | C | Ali Sánchez | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYY | 9 | 3B | José Caballero | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.50 | 2.94 | 1.07 |
| current | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| current | TB | 3 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.11 | 0.78 |
| current | TB | 6 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.49 | 0.90 | |
| current | TB | 7 | Alex Cook | Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | NYY | 1 | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.59 | 2.95 | 1.13 |
| current | NYY | 2 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 1.18 |
| current | NYY | 3 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.58 | 1.04 |
| current | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| current | NYY | 5 | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.24 | 1.06 | |
| simulation | TB | 1 | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 25 | 100 | 1.50 | 2.94 | 1.07 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 6.75 | 2.49 | 0.90 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0.00 | 2.11 | 0.78 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | Alex Cook | Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 54.00 | 4.76 | 1.06 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 90 | 1.59 | 2.95 | 1.13 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 9.00 | 2.58 | 1.04 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 1.18 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13.50 | 4.24 | 1.06 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Nick Martinez | Starter | 6.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 100 |
| TB | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| TB | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 |
| TB | Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 |
| TB | Alex Cook | Reliever | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| NYY | Carlos Rodón | Starter | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 90 |
| NYY | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| NYY | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 29 |
| NYY | Tim Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_TB@NYY_2
20260922_TB@NYY_2.json • 2026-09-22
TB 4 - NYY 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ali Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=36 matches TB BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=40 matches NYY BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.504 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.504257, 'sample_size': 762, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.529678, 'published_confidence': 0.520635, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.479. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 7, NYY 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - NYY 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TB@NYY_2. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0519, 'away_run_delta': -0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022092924850034907}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021284458417206026}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021184364443087446}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02041682621654047}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020409145785109578}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06067321029767718, '1': 0.09093750372560319, '2': 0.12077757988224637, '3': 0.14214345206270018, '4': 0.14823973656526146, '5': 0.1369934022037784, '6': 0.11218425522710192, '7': 0.08140693571068353, '8': 0.052346559973183784, '9': 0.029827175299175477, '10': 0.015060290439319932, '11': 0.00673832275010708, '12': 0.0026715758631615637}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06165952217048613, '1': 0.09235358455625822, '2': 0.12241078831571468, '3': 0.14358132920612482, '4': 0.1490351059839388, '5': 0.13689624270669776, '6': 0.11127735977704364, '7': 0.08004504140791005, '8': 0.05095354339301746, '9': 0.028702959934685895, '10': 0.014308407990409822, '11': 0.0063120187751364255, '12': 0.0024640957825761683}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2903, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0823} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TB | BATTING_REALISM | current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYY | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TB | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYY | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TB | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting walks match TB pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting home runs match TB pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting hits match TB pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYY PA=36 matches TB BF=36. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYY | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TB batting walks match NYY pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TB batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TB batting hits match NYY pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TB batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TB PA=40 matches NYY BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TB | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.504 -> 0.530 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.504257, 'sample_size': 762, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.529678, 'published_confidence': 0.520635, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYY current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TB current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TB current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.479. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TB 7, NYY 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - NYY 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 12, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260709', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260709_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_NYY@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TB', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TB', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TB@NYY_2. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@NYY. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.0519, 'away_run_delta': -0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022092924850034907}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021284458417206026}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021184364443087446}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02041682621654047}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020409145785109578}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06067321029767718, '1': 0.09093750372560319, '2': 0.12077757988224637, '3': 0.14214345206270018, '4': 0.14823973656526146, '5': 0.1369934022037784, '6': 0.11218425522710192, '7': 0.08140693571068353, '8': 0.052346559973183784, '9': 0.029827175299175477, '10': 0.015060290439319932, '11': 0.00673832275010708, '12': 0.0026715758631615637}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06165952217048613, '1': 0.09235358455625822, '2': 0.12241078831571468, '3': 0.14358132920612482, '4': 0.1490351059839388, '5': 0.13689624270669776, '6': 0.11127735977704364, '7': 0.08004504140791005, '8': 0.05095354339301746, '9': 0.028702959934685895, '10': 0.014308407990409822, '11': 0.0063120187751364255, '12': 0.0024640957825761683}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2903, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.304, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0823} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.234, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0823, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYY | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TB | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYY | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TB | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYY | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TB | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 NYY. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.521. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYY | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TB | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYY | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TB | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYY | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ali Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TB | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.3508782112478634 | 4.767573450422007 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.521 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| NYY | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | batting | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TB | pitching | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | NYY | batting | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYY | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TB | batting | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | TB | pitching | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 8.2 | 5 | 36 | 141 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYY | batting | 36 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYY | pitching | 7 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 40 | 152 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | C | Liam Hicks | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | LF | Chandler Simpson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 3B | Junior Caminero | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | DH | Yandy Díaz | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TB | 2B | Richie Palacios | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TB | SS | Jorge Mateo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | RF | Heliot Ramos | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | DH | Ben Rice | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | LF | Cody Bellinger | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYY | 3B | José Caballero | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYY | C | Ali Sánchez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | NYY | CF | Spencer Jones | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| simulation | TB | 1 | DH | Yandy Díaz | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | 1B | Jonathan Aranda | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | 3B | Junior Caminero | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | TB | 4 | C | Liam Hicks | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 5 | LF | Chandler Simpson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 6 | CF | Jonny DeLuca | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TB | 7 | RF | Victor Mesa Jr. | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 |
| simulation | TB | 8 | SS | Jorge Mateo | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TB | 9 | 2B | Richie Palacios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | DH | Ben Rice | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | LF | Cody Bellinger | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | RF | Heliot Ramos | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | 1B | Luis García Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 5 | SS | George Lombard Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 6 | CF | Spencer Jones | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
| simulation | NYY | 7 | 2B | Anthony Volpe | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYY | 8 | C | Ali Sánchez | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYY | 9 | 3B | José Caballero | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TB | 1 | Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 2.72 | 0.93 |
| current | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| current | TB | 3 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.11 | 0.78 |
| current | NYY | 1 | Max Fried | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 2.63 | 0.98 |
| current | NYY | 2 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 1.18 |
| current | NYY | 3 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 2.58 | 1.04 |
| current | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| simulation | TB | 1 | Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 100 | 3.00 | 2.72 | 0.93 |
| simulation | TB | 2 | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18.00 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| simulation | TB | 3 | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5.40 | 2.11 | 0.78 |
| simulation | NYY | 1 | Max Fried | Starter | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 30 | 114 | 4.50 | 2.63 | 0.98 |
| simulation | NYY | 2 | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9.00 | 2.58 | 1.04 |
| simulation | NYY | 3 | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 1.18 |
| simulation | NYY | 4 | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.63 | 1.07 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 6.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 100 |
| TB | Bryan Baker | Closer | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| TB | Cam Booser | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 |
| NYY | Max Fried | Starter | 6.0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 114 |
| NYY | Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| NYY | David Bednar | Closer | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| NYY | Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_TOR@BAL
20260922_TOR@BAL.json • 2026-09-22
TOR 4 - BAL 5
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colton Cowser: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrés Giménez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match TOR pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=34 matches TOR BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match BAL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match BAL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=37 matches BAL BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.500 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 537, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.54, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50005, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 8, BAL 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - BAL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-09-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5052570000000001, 'artifact': '20260921_TOR@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260913', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.529621, 'artifact': '20260913_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260912', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260912_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260911', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.014, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.077, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TOR@BAL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@BAL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019711135626987467}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01924440871194041}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019020526557902075}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018570152117233833}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01827554822520005}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051715975310095946, '1': 0.07798689904068565, '2': 0.10549152798020964, '3': 0.12800074930416933, '4': 0.13931774596445773, '5': 0.13601893340409593, '6': 0.11912181142802214, '7': 0.09357982120272393, '8': 0.06594352089316804, '9': 0.04168319981470023, '10': 0.02363463867400586, '11': 0.012020869500518176, '12': 0.005484307483147256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05362387796355451, '1': 0.08075891581216933, '2': 0.10881591009391336, '3': 0.13117889683531375, '4': 0.14148330846535592, '5': 0.13652622949236148, '6': 0.11786819762214445, '7': 0.09104305992191383, '8': 0.06291681157408341, '9': 0.03890059309204045, '10': 0.021518668570036772, '11': 0.010649868058703613, '12': 0.0047156624984091055}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0732, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.084, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.077} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.014, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.077, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 5 BAL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 5 BAL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | BAL | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | TOR | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | BAL | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | TOR | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting walks match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting hits match TOR pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:BAL PA=34 matches TOR BF=34. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | BAL | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting walks match BAL pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting hits match BAL pitching: 8. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:TOR PA=37 matches BAL BF=37. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | TOR | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.500 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 537, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.54, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50005, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | BAL current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | TOR current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.537/0.731. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_OUTS | Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 8, BAL 7. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - BAL 5. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup. | {'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-09-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5052570000000001, 'artifact': '20260921_TOR@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260913', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.529621, 'artifact': '20260913_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260912', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260912_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260911', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260911_BAL@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.014, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.077, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_TOR@BAL. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@BAL. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0519, 'away_run_delta': 0.0519, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019711135626987467}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01924440871194041}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019020526557902075}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018570152117233833}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01827554822520005}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051715975310095946, '1': 0.07798689904068565, '2': 0.10549152798020964, '3': 0.12800074930416933, '4': 0.13931774596445773, '5': 0.13601893340409593, '6': 0.11912181142802214, '7': 0.09357982120272393, '8': 0.06594352089316804, '9': 0.04168319981470023, '10': 0.02363463867400586, '11': 0.012020869500518176, '12': 0.005484307483147256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05362387796355451, '1': 0.08075891581216933, '2': 0.10881591009391336, '3': 0.13117889683531375, '4': 0.14148330846535592, '5': 0.13652622949236148, '6': 0.11786819762214445, '7': 0.09104305992191383, '8': 0.06291681157408341, '9': 0.03890059309204045, '10': 0.021518668570036772, '11': 0.010649868058703613, '12': 0.0047156624984091055}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0732, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.084, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.077} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.014, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'BAL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.077, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | BAL | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | TOR | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | current:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | current:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | BAL | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | TOR | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | BAL | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | TOR | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 5 BAL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 5 BAL. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 9. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | BAL | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | BAL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | TOR | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | BAL | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | TOR | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | BAL | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colton Cowser: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | TOR | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrés Giménez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 4.506258896656094 | 4.482459105338878 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 5 | 4 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.505 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 4 | 5 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 5 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TOR | batting | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | TOR | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | BAL | batting | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | BAL | pitching | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | TOR | batting | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | |||||||
| simulation | TOR | pitching | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 5 | 34 | 138 | |||||||||
| simulation | BAL | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | BAL | pitching | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 9.0 | 4 | 37 | 149 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TOR | DH | Andrés Giménez | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | C | Brett Bateman | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 2B | Ernie Clement | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | 3B | Alejandro Kirk | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | SS | Kazuma Okamoto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | LF | Nathan Lukes | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | TOR | CF | Myles Straw | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | TOR | RF | George Springer | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | DH | Colton Cowser | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | C | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 1B | Jeremiah Jackson | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 2B | Pete Alonso | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | 3B | Samuel Basallo | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | SS | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | LF | Leody Taveras | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | CF | Dylan Beavers | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | BAL | RF | Coby Mayo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | CF | Brett Bateman | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | SS | Andrés Giménez | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | 2B | Ernie Clement | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 4 | 1B | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| simulation | TOR | 5 | C | Alejandro Kirk | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 6 | 3B | Kazuma Okamoto | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | TOR | 7 | RF | Nathan Lukes | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 8 | CF | Myles Straw | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | TOR | 9 | DH | George Springer | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | CF | Colton Cowser | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | SS | Gunnar Henderson | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | 2B | Jeremiah Jackson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | 1B | Pete Alonso | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
| simulation | BAL | 5 | C | Samuel Basallo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | BAL | 6 | 3B | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 7 | CF | Leody Taveras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 8 | LF | Dylan Beavers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | BAL | 9 | 3B | Coby Mayo | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 6.07 | 1.36 |
| current | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.29 | 1.01 |
| current | TOR | 4 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 1.17 |
| current | BAL | 1 | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 4.64 | 1.55 |
| current | BAL | 2 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.61 | 1.37 |
| current | BAL | 3 | Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| current | BAL | 4 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.59 | 0.92 |
| current | BAL | 5 | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 0.91 |
| simulation | TOR | 1 | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 9.00 | 6.07 | 1.36 |
| simulation | TOR | 2 | Louis Varland | Closer | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0.00 | 1.29 | 1.01 |
| simulation | TOR | 3 | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 1.17 |
| simulation | BAL | 1 | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 98 | 7.20 | 4.64 | 1.55 |
| simulation | BAL | 2 | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.61 | 1.37 |
| simulation | BAL | 3 | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 2.59 | 0.92 |
| simulation | BAL | 4 | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.19 | 0.91 |
| simulation | BAL | 5 | Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 1.57 | 1.12 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | Max Scherzer | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 93 |
| TOR | Louis Varland | Closer | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| TOR | Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| BAL | Chris Bassitt | Starter | 5.0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 98 |
| BAL | Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| BAL | Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| BAL | Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| BAL | Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |
20260922_WAS@DET
20260922_WAS@DET.json • 2026-09-22
WAS 3 - DET 4
PASSClean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7
No action required
No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=14). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Ben Malgeri: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Yohandy Morales: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match WAS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match WAS pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 14. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=44 matches WAS BF=44. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match DET pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match DET pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=40 matches DET BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.616 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.616347, 'sample_size': 393, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5674, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.591873, 'published_confidence': 0.570934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.429. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 3, DET 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - DET 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5709342, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535809, 'artifact': '20260921_WAS@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_WAS@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 7.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0583, 'away_run_delta': -0.0583, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025470097967550422}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024126602974034805}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02390978252831813}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.023858124491298892}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023173075846142116}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.058118244752888314, '1': 0.0872600001411821, '2': 0.11650069114566232, '3': 0.13830961328279126, '4': 0.14601141337460236, '5': 0.1370666553731697, '6': 0.11441616809899034, '7': 0.08492851976049325, '8': 0.05605705569211429, '9': 0.03290164292623421, '10': 0.017171785655444628, '11': 0.007969368439503811, '12': 0.0032888413569236268}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08874361652502007, '1': 0.1304409439883232, '2': 0.16339903806073863, '3': 0.17443908923890167, '4': 0.15870729082451926, '5': 0.12305767302666601, '6': 0.08131661118718718, '7': 0.04579400181298885, '8': 0.02197843046858572, '9': 0.008989664958653396, '10': 0.0031336399084159355}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4554, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.268, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3898} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0174, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.618, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3898, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | DET | BATTING_REALISM | current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | DET | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | WAS | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | DET | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | WAS | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:DET batting walks match WAS pitching: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:DET batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:DET batting hits match WAS pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:DET batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 14. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:DET PA=44 matches WAS BF=44. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | DET | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting walks match DET pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting home runs match DET pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting hits match DET pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:WAS PA=40 matches DET BF=40. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | WAS | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | confidence_calibration | CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.616 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500. | {'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.616347, 'sample_size': 393, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5674, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.591873, 'published_confidence': 0.570934, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'} | ||||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | DET current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | DET current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | WAS current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.429. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.709/0.900. | |||||
| PASS | final_decision | FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 3, DET 10. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - DET 4. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET. | {'winner_confidence': 0.5709342, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260921', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.535809, 'artifact': '20260921_WAS@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-22. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260922_WAS@DET. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@DET. | |||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 7.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0583, 'away_run_delta': -0.0583, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025470097967550422}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024126602974034805}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02390978252831813}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.023858124491298892}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023173075846142116}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.058118244752888314, '1': 0.0872600001411821, '2': 0.11650069114566232, '3': 0.13830961328279126, '4': 0.14601141337460236, '5': 0.1370666553731697, '6': 0.11441616809899034, '7': 0.08492851976049325, '8': 0.05605705569211429, '9': 0.03290164292623421, '10': 0.017171785655444628, '11': 0.007969368439503811, '12': 0.0032888413569236268}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08874361652502007, '1': 0.1304409439883232, '2': 0.16339903806073863, '3': 0.17443908923890167, '4': 0.15870729082451926, '5': 0.12305767302666601, '6': 0.08131661118718718, '7': 0.04579400181298885, '8': 0.02197843046858572, '9': 0.008989664958653396, '10': 0.0031336399084159355}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.15, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4554, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.268, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3898} | ||||
| PASS | optimization_roadmap | OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed. | {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0174, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.618, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3898, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}} | ||||
| PASS | pipeline | PIPELINE_VERSION | Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | DET | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | WAS | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185. | |||
| PASS | pitcher_opponent_strength | PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared. | |||||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | current:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | current:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | DET | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | WAS | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | DET | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | WAS | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 DET. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.571. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10). | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score. | ||||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | DET | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | WAS | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | DET | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | WAS | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=14). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | DET | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Ben Malgeri: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=9). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | WAS | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Yohandy Morales: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 3.5430461094700796 | 4.502578815622701 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 4 | 5 | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.571 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run) |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 3 | 4 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 3 | 4 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | WAS | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | WAS | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 8.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | DET | batting | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | DET | pitching | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | WAS | batting | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | WAS | pitching | 10 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 10.0 | 4 | 44 | 185 | |||||||||
| simulation | DET | batting | 40 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | DET | pitching | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10.0 | 3 | 40 | 186 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | WAS | CF | Dylan Crews | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 2B | CJ Abrams | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 3B | Jorbit Vivas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | DH | Yohandy Morales | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | LF | Daylen Lile | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | WAS | RF | James Wood | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | WAS | 1B | Andrés Chaparro | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | WAS | C | Keibert Ruiz | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | DH | Gleyber Torres | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | RF | Ben Malgeri | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | C | Eduardo Valencia | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | LF | Javier Báez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| current | DET | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | DET | CF | Max Clark | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | DET | SS | John Peck | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | RF | James Wood | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | LF | Daylen Lile | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | CF | Dylan Crews | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | 2B | CJ Abrams | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | 1B | Andrés Chaparro | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 6 | 3B | Jorbit Vivas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 7 | DH | Yohandy Morales | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | WAS | 8 | C | Keibert Ruiz | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | WAS | 9 | SS | Nasim Nuñez | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | DH | Gleyber Torres | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | 2B | Hao-Yu Lee | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | 3B | Kevin McGonigle | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | C | Eduardo Valencia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | RF | Ben Malgeri | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 6 | CF | Max Clark | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | DET | 7 | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | DET | 8 | LF | Javier Báez | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 |
| simulation | DET | 9 | SS | John Peck | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | WAS | 1 | Riley Cornelio | Starter | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 4.22 | 1.53 |
| current | WAS | 2 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.94 | 1.24 |
| current | WAS | 3 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.65 | 1.38 |
| current | WAS | 5 | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 11.45 | 2.55 |
| current | WAS | 7 | Jack Sinclair | Reliever | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| current | DET | 1 | Drew Anderson | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 3.62 | 1.29 |
| current | DET | 2 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.10 |
| current | DET | 3 | Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 0.89 |
| current | DET | 4 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.05 |
| current | DET | 5 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 1.26 |
| simulation | WAS | 1 | Riley Cornelio | Starter | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 19 | 85 | 4.50 | 4.22 | 1.53 |
| simulation | WAS | 2 | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 6.75 | 3.65 | 1.38 |
| simulation | WAS | 3 | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 0.00 | 3.94 | 1.24 |
| simulation | WAS | 4 | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 5.40 | 11.45 | 2.55 |
| simulation | WAS | 5 | Jack Sinclair | Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.35 | 1.04 |
| simulation | DET | 1 | Drew Anderson | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 96 | 5.40 | 3.62 | 1.29 |
| simulation | DET | 2 | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.05 |
| simulation | DET | 3 | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 1.26 |
| simulation | DET | 4 | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.10 |
| simulation | DET | 5 | Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 0.89 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Riley Cornelio | Starter | 4.0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 85 |
| WAS | Brad Lord | Setup Man | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 30 |
| WAS | Erik Tolman | Closer | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| WAS | Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 |
| WAS | Jack Sinclair | Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| DET | Drew Anderson | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 96 |
| DET | Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| DET | Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 |
| DET | Kenley Jansen | Closer | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 35 |
| DET | Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| FINAL_DECISION_POLICY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PIPELINE_VERSION | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them. |
| PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced. |
| PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |