MLB JSON Audit Report

20260919_ATL@HOU

20260919_ATL@HOU.json • 2026-09-19

ATL 4 - HOU 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=41; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=44 matches HOU BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=45 matches ATL BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.650 -> 0.601 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.650472, 'sample_size': 641, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5507, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.600586, 'published_confidence': 0.562015, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.438.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, HOU 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.56201515, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.561644, 'artifact': '20260918_ATL@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_ATL@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0333, 'away_run_delta': 0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026526680435595612}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025294132681158522}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02528766250400654}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024698821026951322}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024112685042731282}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09292066004607723, '1': 0.13859510865282137, '2': 0.1733615659704906, '3': 0.18185575118242023, '4': 0.1599817929993343, '5': 0.1180275467850156, '6': 0.07302398037868889, '7': 0.03788932984350704, '8': 0.01648684848975273, '9': 0.00601627488052613, '10': 0.0018411407713658054}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05369209656717373, '1': 0.08239985199354129, '2': 0.11227232208400664, '3': 0.13581545189723385, '4': 0.14586660176057117, '5': 0.13908898957936106, '6': 0.11774970925356378, '7': 0.08850282614533803, '8': 0.05905880284752285, '9': 0.03498987121229744, '10': 0.01840476400384499, '11': 0.008595049191190782, '12': 0.0035636634643547442}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.224, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.288, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8964}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0116, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.638, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8964, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.562.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=44 matches HOU BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=45 matches ATL BF=45.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.650 -> 0.601 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.650472, 'sample_size': 641, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5507, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.600586, 'published_confidence': 0.562015, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.438.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, HOU 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.56201515, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.561644, 'artifact': '20260918_ATL@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_ATL@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0333, 'away_run_delta': 0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.026526680435595612}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.025294132681158522}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02528766250400654}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.024698821026951322}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.024112685042731282}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.09292066004607723, '1': 0.13859510865282137, '2': 0.1733615659704906, '3': 0.18185575118242023, '4': 0.1599817929993343, '5': 0.1180275467850156, '6': 0.07302398037868889, '7': 0.03788932984350704, '8': 0.01648684848975273, '9': 0.00601627488052613, '10': 0.0018411407713658054}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05369209656717373, '1': 0.08239985199354129, '2': 0.11227232208400664, '3': 0.13581545189723385, '4': 0.14586660176057117, '5': 0.13908898957936106, '6': 0.11774970925356378, '7': 0.08850282614533803, '8': 0.05905880284752285, '9': 0.03498987121229744, '10': 0.01840476400384499, '11': 0.008595049191190782, '12': 0.0035636634643547442}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.224, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.288, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8964}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0116, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.638, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8964, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.562.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=41; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.354997973371472	4.277372036708538		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.562	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4	8
HOU	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		6			0		3	6	4					9.0	3	0	0
current	HOU	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		8			1		4	3	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	41	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		6			0		3	6	4					11.0	3	45	183
simulation	HOU	batting	38	6	3	0	0	3	3	6	4	1	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		8			1		4	3	10					11.0	4	44	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	HOU		LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	ATL	5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	ATL	6	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.200
simulation	ATL	7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	5	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	5	C	Yainer Diaz	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	CF	Daulton Varsho	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	7	1B	Christian Walker	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	4	1	0	0	0	3.60	3.63	1.33
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.29	1.06
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.81	0.89
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.68	1.12
current	ATL	5	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	27.00	2.36	0.92
current	ATL	7	Brent Suter	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
current	ATL	8	Ray Kerr	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
current	HOU	1	Hayden Wesneski	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	3.38	3.70	1.13
current	HOU	2	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	3.42	1.22
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.31
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	0.62	0.58
current	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0		4.79	1.25
simulation	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	4	1	0	23	92	3.60	3.63	1.33
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.68	1.12
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.81	0.89
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.29	1.06
simulation	ATL	5	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	20	9.00	2.36	0.92
simulation	ATL	6	Brent Suter	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.52	1.26
simulation	ATL	7	Ray Kerr	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	1.26	0.49
simulation	HOU	1	Hayden Wesneski	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	5	0	19	85	3.38	3.70	1.13
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	19	9.00	0.62	0.58
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	3.77	1.31
simulation	HOU	4	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	6	23	6.75	3.42	1.22
simulation	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	1	0	0	2	1	0	9	36	0.00	4.79	1.25

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	2	4	4	1	23	92
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
ATL	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
ATL	Brent Suter	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
ATL	Ray Kerr	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	Starter	5.1	2	2	1	5	19	85
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	0	2	6	23
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	1	2	1	9	36

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_BOS@TB

20260919_BOS@TB.json • 2026-09-19

BOS 4 - TB 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Trevor Story: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Fraley: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jorge Mateo: R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=32 matches BOS BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.540 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539524, 'sample_size': 622, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547912, 'published_confidence': 0.529198, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.471.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 8, TB 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.572303, 'artifact': '20260918_BOS@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260718_TB@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260717', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260717_TB@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.052, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.41, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2994, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_BOS@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -20.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 20.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.1154, 'away_run_delta': 0.1154, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020367980342833943}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01989505356437314}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019653938288708036}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019197590945353674}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01878989137353943}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04993834129074794, '1': 0.0768444369988319, '2': 0.10554689446464122, '3': 0.1293996769925823, '4': 0.14160403588087525, '5': 0.13831611339769437, '6': 0.12059370244704862, '7': 0.09384933235275913, '8': 0.06519172190231283, '9': 0.04042112748774965, '10': 0.02237067564331482, '11': 0.011051073946249356, '12': 0.004872867195192586}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05183762355321508, '1': 0.07965902965255987, '2': 0.10896897438527, '3': 0.13269319095782323, '4': 0.14383756943176787, '5': 0.13879504327999492, '6': 0.11922120325698496, '7': 0.09116139615799768, '8': 0.06205065328271489, '9': 0.037597560917282266, '10': 0.02027920419694668, '11': 0.009736885612619164, '12': 0.004161665314823535}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0514, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2994}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.052, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.41, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2994, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.529.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=32 matches BOS BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.540 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.539524, 'sample_size': 622, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547912, 'published_confidence': 0.529198, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.471.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 8, TB 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.572303, 'artifact': '20260918_BOS@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260718_TB@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260717', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260717_TB@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.052, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.41, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2994, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_BOS@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -20.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 20.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.1154, 'away_run_delta': 0.1154, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020367980342833943}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01989505356437314}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019653938288708036}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019197590945353674}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01878989137353943}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04993834129074794, '1': 0.0768444369988319, '2': 0.10554689446464122, '3': 0.1293996769925823, '4': 0.14160403588087525, '5': 0.13831611339769437, '6': 0.12059370244704862, '7': 0.09384933235275913, '8': 0.06519172190231283, '9': 0.04042112748774965, '10': 0.02237067564331482, '11': 0.011051073946249356, '12': 0.004872867195192586}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05183762355321508, '1': 0.07965902965255987, '2': 0.10896897438527, '3': 0.13269319095782323, '4': 0.14383756943176787, '5': 0.13879504327999492, '6': 0.11922120325698496, '7': 0.09116139615799768, '8': 0.06205065328271489, '9': 0.037597560917282266, '10': 0.02027920419694668, '11': 0.009736885612619164, '12': 0.004161665314823535}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0514, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.76, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.2994}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.052, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.41, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'BOS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2994, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.529.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Trevor Story: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Fraley: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jorge Mateo: R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.866570768080433	4.850831559980443		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.529	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	4	8
TB	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		7			0		5	1	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	TB	batting	32	9	1	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		8			0		4	2	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	35	8	3	0	0	4	4	2	5	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		7			0		5	1	8					8.0	5	32	136
simulation	TB	batting	31	7	1	1	0	5	5	1	8	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		8			0		4	2	5					9.0	4	37	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		C	Adley Rutschman	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		DH	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		CF	Jarren Duran	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Jake Fraley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	TB		SS	Jorge Mateo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Roman Anthony	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0.400
simulation	BOS	2	DH	Mickey Gasper	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	BOS	5	1B	Nick Sogard	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	6	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	7	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	8	CF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	1	DH	Jake Fraley	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	4	C	Liam Hicks	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	7	2B	Richie Palacios	3	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	TB	8	CF	Cedric Mullins	3	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	TB	9	SS	Jorge Mateo	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	0	6	0	0	4.15	4.74	1.43
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.07
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.32
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	27.00	1.78	0.83
current	TB	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	1	4	0	0	4.76	4.67	1.34
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.37	0.84
current	TB	3	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	0.79
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.90
simulation	BOS	1	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	0	6	16	73	4.15	4.74	1.43
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	5	21	0.00	1.42	1.07
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.74	1.32
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	7	26	27.00	1.78	0.83
simulation	TB	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	1	4	23	102	4.76	4.67	1.34
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	19	9.00	1.37	0.84
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	6	28	0.00	2.54	0.90
simulation	TB	4	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.13	0.79

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Brayan Bello	Starter	4.1	2	3	0	6	16	73
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	2	5	21
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	1	0	7	26
TB	Freddy Peralta	Starter	5.2	3	5	1	4	23	102
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	28

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_CHC@CIN

20260919_CHC@CIN.json • 2026-09-19

CHC 7 - CIN 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=42 matches CIN BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.830 -> 0.695 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.829714, 'sample_size': 275, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.56, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.694857, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.437/0.613.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 10, CIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 7 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 7, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260918_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260830_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0246, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.754, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6074, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_CHC@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016082128082015836}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015835260441467443}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015332668972010854}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015188082649236039}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015097305853826097}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05371459771962791, '1': 0.08243306275619745, '2': 0.1123121725522162, '3': 0.13585277187361697, '4': 0.14589031542490732, '5': 0.13909153696728718, '6': 0.11773110833928205, '7': 0.08847041053467994, '8': 0.05902298046317214, '9': 0.03495912171940745, '10': 0.01838299097606898, '11': 0.008581992255929241, '12': 0.0035569384176068974}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.021505652428603608, '1': 0.03377723954641282, '2': 0.04933291912966049, '3': 0.06700243774427829, '4': 0.08462243590341316, '5': 0.09938516667398126, '6': 0.10854223184964028, '7': 0.11023437734832804, '8': 0.10410617459425296, '9': 0.09142754383937027, '10': 0.07466528827263096, '11': 0.05670241662848138, '12': 0.04004289979387647, '13': 0.02629605509939315, '14': 0.01605819808895655, '15': 0.009118935626897149, '16': 0.004815402767379538, '17': 0.0023646246644436456}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0292, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.824, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6074}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0246, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.754, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6074, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 7 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 7 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=42 matches CIN BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.830 -> 0.695 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.829714, 'sample_size': 275, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.56, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.694857, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.437/0.613.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 10, CIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 7 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 7 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 7, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 7, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 4, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260918_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260830_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0246, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.754, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6074, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_CHC@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016082128082015836}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015835260441467443}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015332668972010854}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015188082649236039}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015097305853826097}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05371459771962791, '1': 0.08243306275619745, '2': 0.1123121725522162, '3': 0.13585277187361697, '4': 0.14589031542490732, '5': 0.13909153696728718, '6': 0.11773110833928205, '7': 0.08847041053467994, '8': 0.05902298046317214, '9': 0.03495912171940745, '10': 0.01838299097606898, '11': 0.008581992255929241, '12': 0.0035569384176068974}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.021505652428603608, '1': 0.03377723954641282, '2': 0.04933291912966049, '3': 0.06700243774427829, '4': 0.08462243590341316, '5': 0.09938516667398126, '6': 0.10854223184964028, '7': 0.11023437734832804, '8': 0.10410617459425296, '9': 0.09142754383937027, '10': 0.07466528827263096, '11': 0.05670241662848138, '12': 0.04004289979387647, '13': 0.02629605509939315, '14': 0.01605819808895655, '15': 0.009118935626897149, '16': 0.004815402767379538, '17': 0.0023646246644436456}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0292, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.824, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6074}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0246, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.754, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6074, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 7 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 7 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.630811205626478	3.8274219518222665		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	4	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	7	10
CIN	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	33	8	1	0	1	5	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		3			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		10			3		7	5	11					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	37	10	1	0	3	7	7	5	11	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		3			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	34	141
simulation	CIN	batting	30	3	1	0	1	4	4	3	5	0	1
simulation	CIN	pitching		10			3		7	5	11					9.0	7	42	185

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHC		DH	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Matt Shaw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Juan Brito	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	2	3B	Alex Bregman	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	3	DH	Seiya Suzuki	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Tyrone Taylor	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	5	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CHC	6	1B	Michael Busch	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHC	7	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	8	RF	Matt Shaw	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	6	RF	Juan Brito	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Matt McLain	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	6.0	2	4	4	3	3	1	0	0	6.00	4.16	1.24
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.91	1.26
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.27
current	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.03	1.28
current	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.2	8	5	4	3	7	3	0	0	7.71	5.12	1.49
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.26
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.54	1.03
current	CIN	4	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.03	1.63
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	18.00	5.53	1.57
simulation	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	6.0	2	4	4	3	3	1	24	99	6.00	4.16	1.24
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.48	1.27
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.03	1.28
simulation	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.91	1.26
simulation	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.2	8	5	5	3	7	3	25	107	9.64	5.12	1.49
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.54	1.03
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	6.03	1.63
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	25	0.00	2.36	1.26
simulation	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	0	7	27	18.00	5.53	1.57

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Matthew Boyd	Starter	6.0	4	2	3	3	24	99
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CIN	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.2	5	8	3	7	25	107
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	25
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	7	27

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_DET@CHW

20260919_DET@CHW.json • 2026-09-19

DET 6 - CHW 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: RBI current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=39 matches DET BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=44 matches CHW BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.704 -> 0.631 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.704048, 'sample_size': 612, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5588, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.631424, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.552/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 10, CHW 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 6 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.543489, 'artifact': '20260918_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260917_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548872, 'artifact': '20260816_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260815_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260814_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0555, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.718, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4789, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_DET@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01748072951231098}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017023225186044575}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016620004455430656}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016506425374410074}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016313118674454404}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05414660642109895, '1': 0.08307048050945645, '2': 0.11307620594068925, '3': 0.13656668247546133, '4': 0.14634143748893205, '5': 0.13913580330656564, '6': 0.11737064971884473, '7': 0.08784744674742254, '8': 0.05833749866893597, '9': 0.03437284584899755, '10': 0.017969343167162463, '11': 0.00833485292442728, '12': 0.0034301467820058466}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02895493222535436, '1': 0.04522321200587145, '2': 0.06494953240881435, '3': 0.08577612519050917, '4': 0.10416758361935739, '5': 0.11632539271272403, '6': 0.119451672829393, '7': 0.11279392670759074, '8': 0.09793884257530973, '9': 0.07819878219965423, '10': 0.057414393770228875, '11': 0.0387629970854216, '12': 0.024065211607454184, '13': 0.013738451735215854, '14': 0.00721209885914104, '15': 0.0034814592901362775, '16': 0.001545385177823897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.237, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.928, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4789}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0555, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.718, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4789, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=39 matches DET BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=44 matches CHW BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.704 -> 0.631 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.704048, 'sample_size': 612, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5588, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.631424, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.552/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 10, CHW 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 6 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.543489, 'artifact': '20260918_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260917_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548872, 'artifact': '20260816_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260815_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260814_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0555, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.718, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4789, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_DET@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0346, 'away_run_delta': -0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01748072951231098}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017023225186044575}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016620004455430656}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016506425374410074}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016313118674454404}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05414660642109895, '1': 0.08307048050945645, '2': 0.11307620594068925, '3': 0.13656668247546133, '4': 0.14634143748893205, '5': 0.13913580330656564, '6': 0.11737064971884473, '7': 0.08784744674742254, '8': 0.05833749866893597, '9': 0.03437284584899755, '10': 0.017969343167162463, '11': 0.00833485292442728, '12': 0.0034301467820058466}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02895493222535436, '1': 0.04522321200587145, '2': 0.06494953240881435, '3': 0.08577612519050917, '4': 0.10416758361935739, '5': 0.11632539271272403, '6': 0.119451672829393, '7': 0.11279392670759074, '8': 0.09793884257530973, '9': 0.07819878219965423, '10': 0.057414393770228875, '11': 0.0387629970854216, '12': 0.024065211607454184, '13': 0.013738451735215854, '14': 0.00721209885914104, '15': 0.0034814592901362775, '16': 0.001545385177823897}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.237, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.928, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4789}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0555, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.718, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'DET', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4789, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 195.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: RBI current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.315719157022988	4.640575590864536		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	4	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	6	10
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		7			0		4	4	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	CHW	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	4	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		10			2		6	6	5					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	37	10	4	0	2	6	6	6	5	0	1
simulation	DET	pitching		7			0		4	4	8					9.0	4	39	163
simulation	CHW	batting	33	7	2	0	0	4	4	4	8	1	1
simulation	CHW	pitching		10			2		6	6	5					9.0	6	44	195

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		1B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		DH	Riley Greene	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Ben Malgeri	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		LF	Brett Callahan	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	John Peck	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	3	1B	Colt Keith	5	5	3	2	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	DET	4	DH	Riley Greene	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	DET	5	C	Dillon Dingler	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	6	CF	Max Clark	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	DET	7	RF	Ben Malgeri	5	5	3	2	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	DET	8	LF	Brett Callahan	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	9	SS	John Peck	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	2	C	Kyle Teel	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	5	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	6	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	8	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	9	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	1.80	3.89	1.27
current	DET	2	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.22
current	DET	3	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.08
current	DET	4	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.1	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	20.25	2.93	1.05
current	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	4	5	1	0	0	1.80	3.47	1.20
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.77	1.11
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.58	1.16
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	54.00	3.83	1.50
simulation	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	2	6	0	21	92	1.80	3.89	1.27
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.1	4	3	3	1	0	0	9	33	20.25	2.93	1.05
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.78	1.22
simulation	DET	4	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.61	1.08
simulation	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	4	5	1	22	97	1.80	3.47	1.20
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	32	6.75	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	7	31	6.75	2.77	1.11
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	6	22	9.00	2.58	1.16
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	0	4	13	54.00	3.83	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	1	3	2	6	21	92
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
DET	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.1	3	4	1	0	9	33
CHW	Sean Burke	Starter	5.0	1	2	4	5	22	97
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	32
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	2	0	7	31
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	3	0	0	4	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_KC@PIT

20260919_KC@PIT.json • 2026-09-19

KC 4 - PIT 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Rave: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: BB current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: HR current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches PIT BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.571 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597585, 'sample_size': 485, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.570942, 'published_confidence': 0.54098, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.459.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.541.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.541.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 7, PIT 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5409802, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.586204, 'artifact': '20260918_KC@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_KC@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.025, 'away_run_delta': -0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022058069843741267}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021712600273642874}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02147567555130408}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021139327337120383}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02020820860772715}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05044656716073851, '1': 0.07759833499151883, '2': 0.10646646216035797, '3': 0.13029053831765966, '4': 0.14221734592994303, '5': 0.13846241310300464, '6': 0.1202405234713343, '7': 0.0931342573695197, '8': 0.0643439456904716, '9': 0.039650216025764025, '10': 0.021793303250256014, '11': 0.010684155537703646, '12': 0.004671936991728212}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06482936210064055, '1': 0.0987046636095632, '2': 0.13132079780539235, '3': 0.15267195525037155, '4': 0.15510112145256305, '5': 0.13768940514903813, '6': 0.10681101072625075, '7': 0.07240381350205753, '8': 0.04288809662926222, '9': 0.02219944002797419, '10': 0.010041004968515564, '11': 0.0039686450648566286, '12': 0.0013706837135141724}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9221, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.508, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7772}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0834, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.858, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7772, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.541.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches PIT BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.598 -> 0.571 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.597585, 'sample_size': 485, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5443, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.570942, 'published_confidence': 0.54098, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.459.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.541.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.541.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 7, PIT 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5409802, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.586204, 'artifact': '20260918_KC@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_KC@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.025, 'away_run_delta': -0.025, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022058069843741267}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021712600273642874}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02147567555130408}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021139327337120383}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02020820860772715}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05044656716073851, '1': 0.07759833499151883, '2': 0.10646646216035797, '3': 0.13029053831765966, '4': 0.14221734592994303, '5': 0.13846241310300464, '6': 0.1202405234713343, '7': 0.0931342573695197, '8': 0.0643439456904716, '9': 0.039650216025764025, '10': 0.021793303250256014, '11': 0.010684155537703646, '12': 0.004671936991728212}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06482936210064055, '1': 0.0987046636095632, '2': 0.13132079780539235, '3': 0.15267195525037155, '4': 0.15510112145256305, '5': 0.13768940514903813, '6': 0.10681101072625075, '7': 0.07240381350205753, '8': 0.04288809662926222, '9': 0.02219944002797419, '10': 0.010041004968515564, '11': 0.0039686450648566286, '12': 0.0013706837135141724}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.9221, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.508, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7772}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0834, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.858, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7772, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.541.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Rave: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: BB current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: HR current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.016367737945472	4.427174631629173		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.541	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	7
PIT	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		5			3		5	3	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	PIT	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	6	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		7			0		4	1	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	34	7	2	0	0	4	4	1	9	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		5			3		5	3	9					8.2	5	34	140
simulation	PIT	batting	31	5	2	0	3	5	5	3	9	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		7			0		4	1	9					9.0	4	35	135

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	KC		DH	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	KC		RF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	PIT		DH	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Ronny Simon	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	3	DH	Jac Caglianone	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	KC	4	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	5	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	6	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	RF	John Rave	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	KC	8	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	KC	9	LF	Isaac Collins	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	1	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	DH	Oneil Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	5	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	6	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	7	1B	Ryan O'Hearn	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	8	RF	Ronny Simon	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	CF	Jake Mangum	3	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	1.59	3.84	1.19
current	KC	2	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.07	1.25
current	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.13	1.25
current	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	2	3	3	0	0	2	0	0	81.00	4.50	1.35
current	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.1	7	4	4	1	6	0	0	0	6.75	4.28	1.35
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.36	1.10
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	0.98
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.39	1.00
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	2	7	1	23	97	1.59	3.84	1.19
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.13	1.25
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	20	9.00	3.07	1.25
simulation	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	3	0	0	2	3	10	27.00	4.50	1.35
simulation	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.1	7	4	4	1	6	0	24	92	6.75	4.28	1.35
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.39	1.00
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.84	0.98
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	13	0.00	3.36	1.10

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.2	1	2	2	7	23	97
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	0	0	3	10
PIT	Bubba Chandler	Starter	5.1	4	7	1	6	24	92
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	13
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_MIA@SD

20260919_MIA@SD.json • 2026-09-19

MIA 5 - SD 8

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=13; ER: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jakob Marsee: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=5, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=6; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: RBI current=1 box=0; Ty France: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches SD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches MIA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.854 -> 0.707 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.853867, 'sample_size': 275, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.56, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.706933, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 7, SD 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - SD 8.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260918_MIA@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260726_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260725_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0703, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5701, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIA@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0937, 'away_run_delta': -0.0937, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.013082931033621965}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012795824669595309}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.012574321611079218}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01257129247910704}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01236733670057706}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.014926775272980052, '1': 0.023568720971775804, '2': 0.03497390633063291, '3': 0.04877422501536058, '4': 0.06392558628092132, '5': 0.07874031888591679, '6': 0.09115022102248611, '7': 0.09916453737638854, '8': 0.10138954205577985, '9': 0.09742446736364582, '10': 0.08797940610646102, '11': 0.07466758743366717, '12': 0.05955542382166749, '13': 0.04464251233903032, '14': 0.03144952151624981, '15': 0.02082176615018508, '16': 0.012955649618525251, '17': 0.0075759819444251005, '18': 0.0041634828018342835, '19': 0.002150367692066559}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037331376120209016, '1': 0.05795625150268394, '2': 0.08174801614766765, '3': 0.10476224590111952, '4': 0.12197842548468284, '5': 0.12903629672599112, '6': 0.12401990734075322, '7': 0.1082982799831139, '8': 0.085921600908006, '9': 0.061934666878870066, '10': 0.040561676441893915, '11': 0.024135073809528153, '12': 0.013047641361758495, '13': 0.006408642342955728, '14': 0.0028598990507664214}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3084, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.5701}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0703, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5701, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 8 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 8 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-8, final 5-8 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches SD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches MIA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.854 -> 0.707 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.853867, 'sample_size': 275, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.56, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.706933, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 7, SD 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - SD 8.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIA', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260918_MIA@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260726', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260726_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260725_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0703, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5701, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIA@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 15.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 15.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0937, 'away_run_delta': -0.0937, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.013082931033621965}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.012795824669595309}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.012574321611079218}, {'home_runs': 9, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01257129247910704}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01236733670057706}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.014926775272980052, '1': 0.023568720971775804, '2': 0.03497390633063291, '3': 0.04877422501536058, '4': 0.06392558628092132, '5': 0.07874031888591679, '6': 0.09115022102248611, '7': 0.09916453737638854, '8': 0.10138954205577985, '9': 0.09742446736364582, '10': 0.08797940610646102, '11': 0.07466758743366717, '12': 0.05955542382166749, '13': 0.04464251233903032, '14': 0.03144952151624981, '15': 0.02082176615018508, '16': 0.012955649618525251, '17': 0.0075759819444251005, '18': 0.0041634828018342835, '19': 0.002150367692066559}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037331376120209016, '1': 0.05795625150268394, '2': 0.08174801614766765, '3': 0.10476224590111952, '4': 0.12197842548468284, '5': 0.12903629672599112, '6': 0.12401990734075322, '7': 0.1082982799831139, '8': 0.085921600908006, '9': 0.061934666878870066, '10': 0.040561676441893915, '11': 0.024135073809528153, '12': 0.013047641361758495, '13': 0.006408642342955728, '14': 0.0028598990507664214}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.3084, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.056, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.5701}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 8 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0703, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.406, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5701, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 8, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 8 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 8 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-8, final 5-8 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=13; ER: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jakob Marsee: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=5, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=6; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: RBI current=1 box=0; Ty France: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.1615103358605365	4.166298079380787		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	8	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	8		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	8		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	8		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	8		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	7
SD	2	0	1	2	0	2	0	1	0	8	13

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		10			0		8	3	8					8.0	7	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		7			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	3	8	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		13			0		8	3	8					8.0	8	40	164
simulation	SD	batting	37	13	2	0	0	8	8	3	8	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		7			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	37	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Esteury Ruiz	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	SD		RF	Dustin Harris	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	SD		DH	Luis Campusano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	SD		SS	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		LF	Samad Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIA	3	1B	Kyle Stowers	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	5	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	7	DH	Agustín Ramírez	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	RF	Esteury Ruiz	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	2	RF	Dustin Harris	5	5	5	2	0	1	6	0	0	1.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	3	0.400
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	6	DH	Luis Campusano	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SD	7	SS	Jake Cronenworth	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	8	LF	Samad Taylor	4	4	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	1.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	7	6	5	3	5	0	0	0	9.00	3.99	1.24
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.32
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.08	1.11
current	MIA	4	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.86	1.58
current	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	2	1	0	0	5.40	3.69	1.14
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.85	1.06
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.85	0.99
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.12	0.85
current	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	18.00	1.92	1.11
simulation	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	7	5	5	3	5	0	25	107	9.00	3.99	1.24
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	22	18.00	3.50	1.32
simulation	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.08	1.11
simulation	MIA	4	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	6	22	9.00	4.86	1.58
simulation	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	2	1	22	98	5.40	3.69	1.14
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.12	0.85
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	20	0.00	2.85	1.06
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.85	0.99
simulation	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	1	6	23	18.00	1.92	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Eury Pérez	Starter	5.0	5	7	3	5	25	107
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22
SD	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	3	5	2	2	22	98
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	20
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
SD	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_MIL@BAL

20260919_MIL@BAL.json • 2026-09-19

MIL 4 - BAL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Barrero: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9; BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches MIL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 551, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5608, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53545, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 6, BAL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 4 - BAL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'MIL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66567, 'artifact': '20260918_MIL@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.966, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -1.2982, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIL@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0083, 'away_run_delta': 0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018566574781033535}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018547433834449498}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01838886868307479}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018369910940068623}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016856164133071467}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04460471571162488, '1': 0.06889010280306078, '2': 0.09567160737460816, '3': 0.11947017200954749, '4': 0.13414858250408707, '5': 0.13544496574301026, '6': 0.12296735399437698, '7': 0.1003845713759975, '8': 0.0736875794302925, '9': 0.04863756148572052, '10': 0.02886685533169737, '11': 0.015405554661182111, '12': 0.007392739165157231, '13': 0.003189948034338058, '14': 0.0012376903752989944}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04644996293803791, '1': 0.07165517629980933, '2': 0.09915902012996967, '3': 0.12309469729854444, '4': 0.1370783674327274, '5': 0.13693704843663893, '6': 0.12271438145948195, '7': 0.0986489400168538, '8': 0.07113966965088488, '9': 0.046020753563622986, '10': 0.026706567166466372, '11': 0.013902883083491342, '12': 0.006492532523470881}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.6656, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.616, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2982}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.966, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -1.2982, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 5 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 4 - 5 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches MIL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.535 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 551, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5608, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.53545, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.511/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 6, BAL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 4 - BAL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'MIL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66567, 'artifact': '20260918_MIL@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BAL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.966, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -1.2982, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIL@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0083, 'away_run_delta': 0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018566574781033535}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018547433834449498}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01838886868307479}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018369910940068623}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016856164133071467}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04460471571162488, '1': 0.06889010280306078, '2': 0.09567160737460816, '3': 0.11947017200954749, '4': 0.13414858250408707, '5': 0.13544496574301026, '6': 0.12296735399437698, '7': 0.1003845713759975, '8': 0.0736875794302925, '9': 0.04863756148572052, '10': 0.02886685533169737, '11': 0.015405554661182111, '12': 0.007392739165157231, '13': 0.003189948034338058, '14': 0.0012376903752989944}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04644996293803791, '1': 0.07165517629980933, '2': 0.09915902012996967, '3': 0.12309469729854444, '4': 0.1370783674327274, '5': 0.13693704843663893, '6': 0.12271438145948195, '7': 0.0986489400168538, '8': 0.07113966965088488, '9': 0.046020753563622986, '10': 0.026706567166466372, '11': 0.013902883083491342, '12': 0.006492532523470881}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.6656, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.616, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2982}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 5 BAL', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1038, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.966, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'BAL', 'model_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BAL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -1.2982, 'winner': 'BAL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 5 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 4 - 5 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BAL, simulation=BAL, published=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Barrero: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9; BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.979125167079161	4.760493495332001		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	6
BAL	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	32	9	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		7			2		5	2	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	BAL	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		6			3		4	2	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	33	6	1	0	3	4	4	2	10	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		9			2		5	3	9					8.1	5	37	172
simulation	BAL	batting	34	9	4	0	2	5	5	3	9	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		6			3		4	2	10					9.0	4	35	143

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIL		DH	William Contreras	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		C	Gary Sánchez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		2B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Rece Hinds	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	BAL		LF	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	José Barrero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	3	DH	William Contreras	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	3B	Joey Ortiz	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	0.250
simulation	MIL	6	C	Gary Sánchez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	RF	Luis Lara	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	2B	David Hamilton	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Rece Hinds	5	5	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	DH	Coby Mayo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	6	LF	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	C	Carlos Narváez	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	8	CF	Leody Taveras	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	2B	José Barrero	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	2	7	1	0	0	5.40	4.30	1.27
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.39
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	1.03
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	2.15	0.89
current	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	2	9	2	0	0	4.50	4.22	1.22
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.61	1.37
current	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.63	0.94
current	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	0.92
simulation	MIL	1	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	2	7	1	24	101	3.60	4.30	1.27
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	2.15	0.89
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	20	0.00	2.08	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	6	35	13.50	3.31	1.39
simulation	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	2	9	2	25	101	4.50	4.22	1.22
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.61	1.37
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	2.63	0.94
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.25	0.92

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Robert Gasser	Starter	5.0	2	6	2	7	24	101
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	1	0	6	35
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
BAL	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	3	5	2	9	25	101
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_MIN@LAA

20260919_MIN@LAA.json • 2026-09-19

MIN 3 - LAA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=11, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: SO current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2; Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.618 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.617644, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5673, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.592472, 'published_confidence': 0.554366, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, LAA 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 3 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534344, 'artifact': '20260918_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.516481, 'artifact': '20260917_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260712_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0622, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.338, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0225, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIN@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0257392509919907}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02484986881211784}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02447274418585926}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02362712429667666}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023426220912885327}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06095626243960508, '1': 0.09306503810539307, '2': 0.12485022055233873, '3': 0.14717247495315944, '4': 0.1524398096654979, '5': 0.13874097028904858, '6': 0.11095466897422017, '7': 0.07796882004240276, '8': 0.04814274692229027, '9': 0.02612012773327965, '10': 0.012452434078548513, '11': 0.005216362105436169, '12': 0.0019200641387798227}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07807258865278979, '1': 0.11774830399346678, '2': 0.15227232173419072, '3': 0.1688486166997382, '4': 0.1605403748506401, '5': 0.13088240498414017, '6': 0.09149313077212082, '7': 0.054841072473558454, '8': 0.028186011058585942, '9': 0.012421427960126047, '10': 0.004693746820643144}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1851, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0225}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0622, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.338, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0225, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 3 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 3 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.618 -> 0.592 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.617644, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5673, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.592472, 'published_confidence': 0.554366, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.446.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.554.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, LAA 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 3 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.534344, 'artifact': '20260918_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.516481, 'artifact': '20260917_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260712_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0622, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.338, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0225, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_MIN@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0257392509919907}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02484986881211784}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02447274418585926}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02362712429667666}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023426220912885327}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06095626243960508, '1': 0.09306503810539307, '2': 0.12485022055233873, '3': 0.14717247495315944, '4': 0.1524398096654979, '5': 0.13874097028904858, '6': 0.11095466897422017, '7': 0.07796882004240276, '8': 0.04814274692229027, '9': 0.02612012773327965, '10': 0.012452434078548513, '11': 0.005216362105436169, '12': 0.0019200641387798227}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07807258865278979, '1': 0.11774830399346678, '2': 0.15227232173419072, '3': 0.1688486166997382, '4': 0.1605403748506401, '5': 0.13088240498414017, '6': 0.09149313077212082, '7': 0.054841072473558454, '8': 0.028186011058585942, '9': 0.012421427960126047, '10': 0.004693746820643144}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1851, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.408, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0225}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0622, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.338, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0225, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 3 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 3 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.554.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=11, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: SO current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2; Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.788679236432034	4.813020583771049		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.554	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	6
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		8			1		4	1	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	LAA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	3	4	2	11	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		6			2		3	1	12					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	36	6	3	0	2	3	3	1	12	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		9			1		4	1	7					10.0	4	40	151
simulation	LAA	batting	39	9	2	0	1	4	4	1	7	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		6			2		3	1	12					10.0	3	37	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Austin Martin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Victor Caratini	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		CF	Jose Siri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIN	2	LF	Austin Martin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	6	2B	Royce Lewis	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Victor Caratini	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.200
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	LAA	3	LF	Wade Meckler	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	4	2B	Vaughn Grissom	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAA	8	CF	Jose Siri	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	4	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0.00	3.84	1.16
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.93	1.02
current	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	3.52	1.31
current	MIN	4	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	4.22	1.45
current	MIN	6	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.39	1.38
current	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	0	9	2	0	0	3.00	3.36	1.05
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.40	1.19
current	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	6.75	3.99	1.24
current	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.79	1.03
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	4	0	0	0	4	0	19	75	0.00	3.84	1.16
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	6	16	6.75	4.22	1.45
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	19	18.00	3.52	1.31
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.93	1.02
simulation	MIN	5	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	6	24	5.40	4.39	1.38
simulation	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	0	9	2	22	94	3.00	3.36	1.05
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	4.40	1.19
simulation	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	0	8	31	5.40	3.99	1.24
simulation	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.79	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	0	4	0	4	19	75
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	19
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.1	1	2	0	2	6	16
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	0	0	6	24
LAA	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.0	2	4	0	9	22	94
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	2	5	21
LAA	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.2	1	2	1	1	8	31
LAA	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_NYY@ARI

20260919_NYY@ARI.json • 2026-09-19

NYY 5 - ARI 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jesús Sánchez: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=32 matches NYY BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.905 -> 0.730 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.905436, 'sample_size': 204, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.729668, 'published_confidence': 0.711249, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.711.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.711.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.289.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, ARI 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - ARI 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.711249, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260918_NYY@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_NYY@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -7.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0583, 'away_run_delta': 0.0583, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.027073700070896586}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.026362223790030732}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025321649652044476}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02480283973218228}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.024151039936758878}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.1272778556239923, '1': 0.18476698914693068, '2': 0.2130772311892638, '3': 0.19520495543369012, '4': 0.14206456398147496, '5': 0.08213378137375248, '6': 0.03772237288127122, '7': 0.01376313343071487, '8': 0.0039891169389092915}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03568786711703251, '1': 0.055470357593292004, '2': 0.07851997440573025, '3': 0.10122275291354013, '4': 0.11883789511772266, '5': 0.12706050252196413, '6': 0.12372144899243007, '7': 0.10971303726196374, '8': 0.08860338007294001, '9': 0.0651660133231274, '10': 0.04364865112548853, '11': 0.026625594463241333, '12': 0.014791309003902575, '13': 0.007483292456293774, '14': 0.003447923631330862}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0734, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.848, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9945}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 2 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 2 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.198, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9945, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 2 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 2 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.711.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=32 matches NYY BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.905 -> 0.730 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.905436, 'sample_size': 204, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5539, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.729668, 'published_confidence': 0.711249, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.711.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.711.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.289.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, ARI 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - ARI 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.711249, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'ARI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260918_NYY@ARI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_NYY@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': -7.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0583, 'away_run_delta': 0.0583, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.027073700070896586}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.026362223790030732}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025321649652044476}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02480283973218228}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.024151039936758878}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.1272778556239923, '1': 0.18476698914693068, '2': 0.2130772311892638, '3': 0.19520495543369012, '4': 0.14206456398147496, '5': 0.08213378137375248, '6': 0.03772237288127122, '7': 0.01376313343071487, '8': 0.0039891169389092915}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03568786711703251, '1': 0.055470357593292004, '2': 0.07851997440573025, '3': 0.10122275291354013, '4': 0.11883789511772266, '5': 0.12706050252196413, '6': 0.12372144899243007, '7': 0.10971303726196374, '8': 0.08860338007294001, '9': 0.0651660133231274, '10': 0.04364865112548853, '11': 0.026625594463241333, '12': 0.014791309003902575, '13': 0.007483292456293774, '14': 0.003447923631330862}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0734, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.848, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.9945}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 2 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 2 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0341, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.198, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9945, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 2 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 2 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.711.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jesús Sánchez: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.896590275329932	3.1763020174507224		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	2	0.711	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	6
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	31	8	1	0	1	4	6	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		3			0		2	2	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	ARI	batting	33	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		6			1		5	2	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	33	6	1	0	1	5	5	2	7	0	1
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			0		2	2	9					9.0	2	32	135
simulation	ARI	batting	30	3	0	0	0	2	2	2	9	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		6			1		5	2	7					9.0	5	36	142

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Heliot Ramos	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	C	Austin Wells	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	2B	Anthony Volpe	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	9	CF	José Caballero	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	1B	Tim Tawa	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	3	3	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	1	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	1.42	1.95	0.90
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.90	1.16
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.58	1.04
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.65	1.07
current	ARI	1	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.1	3	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	2.84	3.77	1.17
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	27.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
current	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	1	1	1	1	8	0	21	91	1.42	1.95	0.90
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	16	9.00	2.58	1.04
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	20	0.00	1.90	1.16
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	1.65	1.07
simulation	ARI	1	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.1	3	2	2	1	5	1	24	95	2.84	3.77	1.17
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	0	7	26	27.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	2.80	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	1	1	1	8	21	91
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	6.1	2	3	1	5	24	95
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	3	3	1	0	7	26
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_OAK@CLE

20260919_OAK@CLE.json • 2026-09-19

OAK 4 - CLE 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; David Fry: H current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Shea Langeliers: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: H current=0 box=1; Brian Serven: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.818 -> 0.684 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.817577, 'sample_size': 370, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.684488, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 5, CLE 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - CLE 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260918_OAK@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.067, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.911, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2621, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_OAK@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0437, 'away_run_delta': -0.0437, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018630609806111094}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018599941574120513}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018061263745483242}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018031532725814318}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01768635605291719}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02839841833414657, '1': 0.044372234368500865, '2': 0.06380589457147914, '3': 0.08443891878169223, '4': 0.10283877229095464, '5': 0.11526659413681112, '6': 0.11890014836748863, '7': 0.11287394136086201, '8': 0.09861371992552243, '9': 0.07928907496807691, '10': 0.05867076063137156, '11': 0.039954200442954224, '12': 0.025040069356726688, '13': 0.014442453197506937, '14': 0.007666175693013049, '15': 0.0037449750225228414, '16': 0.0016836485503701124}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06764507484221016, '1': 0.10278386333090475, '2': 0.1359218482562982, '3': 0.1564332915433634, '4': 0.15669122420712925, '5': 0.1365952954833544, '6': 0.10363403036474211, '7': 0.06842969635141855, '8': 0.039324428114520006, '9': 0.01966780058458486, '10': 0.008561005086960902, '11': 0.003243166848859506, '12': 0.0010692749856539589}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.5455, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.736, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2621}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.067, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.911, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2621, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.818 -> 0.684 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.817577, 'sample_size': 370, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.684488, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 5, CLE 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - CLE 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260918_OAK@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.067, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.911, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2621, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_OAK@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.75, 'home_run_delta': 0.0437, 'away_run_delta': -0.0437, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018630609806111094}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018599941574120513}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018061263745483242}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018031532725814318}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01768635605291719}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02839841833414657, '1': 0.044372234368500865, '2': 0.06380589457147914, '3': 0.08443891878169223, '4': 0.10283877229095464, '5': 0.11526659413681112, '6': 0.11890014836748863, '7': 0.11287394136086201, '8': 0.09861371992552243, '9': 0.07928907496807691, '10': 0.05867076063137156, '11': 0.039954200442954224, '12': 0.025040069356726688, '13': 0.014442453197506937, '14': 0.007666175693013049, '15': 0.0037449750225228414, '16': 0.0016836485503701124}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06764507484221016, '1': 0.10278386333090475, '2': 0.1359218482562982, '3': 0.1564332915433634, '4': 0.15669122420712925, '5': 0.1365952954833544, '6': 0.10363403036474211, '7': 0.06842969635141855, '8': 0.039324428114520006, '9': 0.01966780058458486, '10': 0.008561005086960902, '11': 0.003243166848859506, '12': 0.0010692749856539589}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.5455, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.736, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2621}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.067, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.911, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2621, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; David Fry: H current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: RBI current=1 box=2; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Shea Langeliers: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: H current=0 box=1; Brian Serven: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.304479448282424	4.545833463092229		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	5
CLE	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	0	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		11			2		6	1	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	CLE	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		5			1		4	1	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	32	5	2	0	1	4	4	1	9	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		11			2		6	1	7					8.0	6	36	149
simulation	CLE	batting	35	11	1	0	2	6	6	1	7	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		5			1		4	1	9					9.0	4	33	135

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Shea Langeliers	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	OAK		C	Brian Serven	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	David Fry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	CLE		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	3	DH	Shea Langeliers	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	5	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	2B	Donovan Walton	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	LF	Carlos Cortes	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	C	Brian Serven	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	9	SS	Alika Williams	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	DH	Chase DeLauter	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	4	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	5	LF	Angel Martínez	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	1B	David Fry	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	8	C	Austin Hedges	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	1	4	2	0	0	7.71	5.02	1.48
current	OAK	2	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	3.86
current	OAK	3	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00
current	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	1.59	4.16	1.18
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.99
current	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	1.13
current	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	3	3	0	2	0	0	0	20.25	2.58	1.06
simulation	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	1	4	2	23	98	7.71	5.02	1.48
simulation	OAK	2	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	9	35	3.86	5.08	1.55
simulation	OAK	3	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	4	16	9.00	6.35	1.82
simulation	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	0	5	1	19	79	1.59	4.16	1.18
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.06	0.99
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.54	1.13
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	3	3	0	2	0	7	26	20.25	2.58	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.2	4	8	1	4	23	98
OAK	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	1	2	0	1	9	35
OAK	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	16
CLE	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	1	2	0	5	19	79
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	3	0	2	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_PHI@NYM

20260919_PHI@NYM.json • 2026-09-19

PHI 5 - NYM 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, HBP current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Ronny Mauricio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 623, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.557, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50855, 'published_confidence': 0.529107, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.471.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5115270000000001, 'artifact': '20260918_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544183, 'artifact': '20260917_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260718_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260716', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260716_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0438, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_PHI@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01709328300276935}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016398299197353774}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016311749173715123}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01625311576318386}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01613541335233423}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03823725357199818, '1': 0.059324045115129224, '2': 0.08351433343287261, '3': 0.10667864212020578, '4': 0.1236460184709671, '5': 0.1300376135065358, '6': 0.12409207372998313, '7': 0.10744972073691027, '8': 0.0844214363947658, '9': 0.06018473887550606, '10': 0.0389319557605059, '11': 0.022851370882692672, '12': 0.012170389965140638, '13': 0.005881429919445626, '14': 0.0025789775173413053}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.039618904595121913, '1': 0.061406931793144215, '2': 0.08619067234019002, '3': 0.1095547152078487, '4': 0.12610427671782504, '5': 0.1314487596460714, '6': 0.12408266283295986, '7': 0.10607026478700558, '8': 0.08211152851546275, '9': 0.057562885479569406, '10': 0.03654339655093963, '11': 0.021008894543561318, '12': 0.010937685385644425, '13': 0.005156744198014696, '14': 0.0022016774066412324}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6266, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.072, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3821}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0438, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.529.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 623, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.557, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50855, 'published_confidence': 0.529107, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.471.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.529.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5115270000000001, 'artifact': '20260918_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260917', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544183, 'artifact': '20260917_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260718_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260716', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260716_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0438, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_PHI@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01709328300276935}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016398299197353774}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016311749173715123}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01625311576318386}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01613541335233423}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03823725357199818, '1': 0.059324045115129224, '2': 0.08351433343287261, '3': 0.10667864212020578, '4': 0.1236460184709671, '5': 0.1300376135065358, '6': 0.12409207372998313, '7': 0.10744972073691027, '8': 0.0844214363947658, '9': 0.06018473887550606, '10': 0.0389319557605059, '11': 0.022851370882692672, '12': 0.012170389965140638, '13': 0.005881429919445626, '14': 0.0025789775173413053}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.039618904595121913, '1': 0.061406931793144215, '2': 0.08619067234019002, '3': 0.1095547152078487, '4': 0.12610427671782504, '5': 0.1314487596460714, '6': 0.12408266283295986, '7': 0.10607026478700558, '8': 0.08211152851546275, '9': 0.057562885479569406, '10': 0.03654339655093963, '11': 0.021008894543561318, '12': 0.010937685385644425, '13': 0.005156744198014696, '14': 0.0022016774066412324}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6266, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.072, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.3821}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0438, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.142, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3821, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.529.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, HBP current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Ronny Mauricio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.926688782677083	5.156802579244353		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.529	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
PHI	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	10
NYM	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	6	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		7			3		6	2	10					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYM	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		10			1		5	0	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	40	10	3	0	1	5	5	0	6	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		7			3		6	2	10					10.0	6	41	160
simulation	NYM	batting	37	7	0	0	3	6	6	2	10	0	2
simulation	NYM	pitching		10			1		5	0	6					10.0	5	40	161

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Brett Baty	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Ronny Mauricio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	3B	Bryson Stott	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	7	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	5	CF	A.J. Ewing	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	7	1B	Brett Baty	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	8	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	9	DH	Ronny Mauricio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Andrew Painter	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.38	5.54	1.44
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.44	0.96
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	10.80	3.36	1.03
current	PHI	4	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		4.20	1.16
current	PHI	7	Tim Mayza	Reliever	0.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0
current	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	0	5	1	0	0	5.40	3.76	1.26
current	NYM	2	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.27
current	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	7.05	1.60
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.93	0.86
current	NYM	5	Dedniel Núñez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.94	1.06
current	NYM	6	Austin Warren	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.30	1.29
simulation	PHI	1	Andrew Painter	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	1	22	84	3.38	5.54	1.44
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	1.44	0.96
simulation	PHI	3	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.20	1.16
simulation	PHI	4	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	7	27	10.80	3.36	1.03
simulation	PHI	5	Tim Mayza	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	19	18.00	3.46	1.11
simulation	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	0	5	1	20	82	5.40	3.76	1.26
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	6	23	6.75	7.05	1.60
simulation	NYM	3	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	1.93	0.86
simulation	NYM	4	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.50	1.27
simulation	NYM	5	Dedniel Núñez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.94	1.06
simulation	NYM	6	Austin Warren	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.00	3.30	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Andrew Painter	Starter	5.1	2	3	1	5	22	84
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	2	0	1	7	27
PHI	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
PHI	Tim Mayza	Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	19
NYM	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	3	5	0	5	20	82
NYM	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	1	2	0	0	6	23
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
NYM	Dedniel Núñez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
NYM	Austin Warren	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_SEA@COL

20260919_SEA@COL.json • 2026-09-19

SEA 10 - COL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Connor Norby: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=10; R: current=5, sim=10; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=2; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match COL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches COL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 10.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.758 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 134, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7585, 'published_confidence': 0.721304, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.721.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.721.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.279.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 15 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 15.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.438/0.613.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 12, COL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 10 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.721304, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7604690000000001, 'artifact': '20260918_SEA@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_SEA@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0083, 'away_run_delta': 0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012757145218587531}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012511409397728086}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012493350350367223}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 10, 'probability': 0.012310364602690096}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012252695905267785}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04283711575142582, '1': 0.06624307421147815, '2': 0.0923420085891522, '3': 0.11603706506501474, '4': 0.131441569154228, '5': 0.1342169344838884, '6': 0.12354366371415736, '7': 0.10251141258437695, '8': 0.07667654587622061, '9': 0.05170010722770347, '10': 0.03142381634348972, '11': 0.017217297853799766, '12': 0.008503733440559757, '13': 0.003786106835288663, '14': 0.0015195488692165374}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01097605569722864, '1': 0.017391311954074017, '2': 0.026078856279275375, '3': 0.03700964243843, '4': 0.04970629468096615, '5': 0.06317977045872453, '6': 0.07600022007248557, '7': 0.0865210554423223, '8': 0.09321781521712502, '9': 0.09504870058046898, '10': 0.09171990591222935, '11': 0.08376279679099617, '12': 0.07239505319531174, '13': 0.05921568615577132, '14': 0.04583896393473494, '15': 0.03358172281884319, '16': 0.023283126885511582, '17': 0.015277411964562067, '18': 0.009486989660834612, '19': 0.005575415233681458, '20': 0.0031009599704482443, '21': 0.0016322446559749414}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9545, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0083}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 10 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 10 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0789, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.458, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 188.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 188.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 10 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 10 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.721.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 10-5, final 10-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 15.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match COL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches COL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 10.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.758 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 134, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7585, 'published_confidence': 0.721304, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.721.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.721.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.279.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 15 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 15.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.438/0.613.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 12, COL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 10 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.721304, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7604690000000001, 'artifact': '20260918_SEA@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_SEA@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0083, 'away_run_delta': 0.0083, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012757145218587531}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012511409397728086}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012493350350367223}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 10, 'probability': 0.012310364602690096}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012252695905267785}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04283711575142582, '1': 0.06624307421147815, '2': 0.0923420085891522, '3': 0.11603706506501474, '4': 0.131441569154228, '5': 0.1342169344838884, '6': 0.12354366371415736, '7': 0.10251141258437695, '8': 0.07667654587622061, '9': 0.05170010722770347, '10': 0.03142381634348972, '11': 0.017217297853799766, '12': 0.008503733440559757, '13': 0.003786106835288663, '14': 0.0015195488692165374}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.01097605569722864, '1': 0.017391311954074017, '2': 0.026078856279275375, '3': 0.03700964243843, '4': 0.04970629468096615, '5': 0.06317977045872453, '6': 0.07600022007248557, '7': 0.0865210554423223, '8': 0.09321781521712502, '9': 0.09504870058046898, '10': 0.09171990591222935, '11': 0.08376279679099617, '12': 0.07239505319531174, '13': 0.05921568615577132, '14': 0.04583896393473494, '15': 0.03358172281884319, '16': 0.023283126885511582, '17': 0.015277411964562067, '18': 0.009486989660834612, '19': 0.005575415233681458, '20': 0.0031009599704482443, '21': 0.0016322446559749414}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9545, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.108, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.0083}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 10 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 10 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0789, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.458, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0083, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 10, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 188.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 188.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 10 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 10 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.721.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 10-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 10-5, final 10-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 15.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 10-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Connor Norby: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=10; R: current=5, sim=10; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=2; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.013130833834458	4.126294909825292		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	9	5	0.721	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	10	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	10	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	10	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	10	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	10	12
COL	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	33	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		6			2		5	7	8					9.0	5	0	0
current	COL	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		12			2		10	4	5					9.0	9	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	39	12	3	0	2	10	10	4	5	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		6			2		5	7	8					9.0	5	40	167
simulation	COL	batting	33	6	1	0	2	5	5	7	8	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		12			2		10	4	5					9.0	10	43	188

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SEA		RF	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Michael Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	SEA		DH	Lazaro Montes	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		RF	Zac Veen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		2B	Connor Norby	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	1	SS	J.P. Crawford	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	2	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	5	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	SEA	3	RF	Dominic Canzone	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	5	2	0	2	2	6	0	0	0.400
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	7	2B	Michael Arroyo	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	DH	Lazaro Montes	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Weston Wilson	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	COL	2	2B	Connor Norby	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	COL	3	1B	TJ Rumfield	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	4	C	Hunter Goodman	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	3B	Kyle Karros	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	COL	7	DH	Mickey Moniak	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	COL	8	RF	Zac Veen	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.333
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.0	5	5	5	6	6	2	0	0	9.00	4.19	1.16
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.79	1.16
current	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.84	1.44
current	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.14	1.14
current	SEA	6	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.67	1.42
current	COL	1	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.1	6	5	5	2	3	1	0	0	10.38	5.27	1.51
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.49	1.09
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.30	1.41
current	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.76	1.48
current	COL	5	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.26
current	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	4	5	4	1	0	1	0	0	54.00	5.40	1.72
simulation	SEA	1	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.0	5	5	5	6	6	2	26	110	9.00	4.19	1.16
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.79	1.16
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	3.67	1.42
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	3.84	1.44
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	3.14	1.14
simulation	COL	1	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.1	6	5	5	2	3	1	21	93	10.38	5.27	1.51
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.26	1.26
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	25	0.00	2.49	1.09
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	5.76	1.48
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.30	1.41
simulation	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	4	5	5	1	0	1	7	24	67.50	5.40	1.72

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Bryce Miller	Starter	5.0	5	5	6	6	26	110
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
COL	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.1	5	6	2	3	21	93
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	25
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	5	4	1	0	7	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_SF@LAD

20260919_SF@LAD.json • 2026-09-19

SF 1 - LAD 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=8; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: RBI current=1 box=4; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=8; ER: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Harris: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches SF BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.917 at weight 0.020.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 4, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.75, 'empirical_weight': 0.02, 'blended_confidence': 0.9166, 'published_confidence': 0.565131, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 3, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 1 - LAD 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.565131, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026368053339822936}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025630264538412797}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02505615582189916}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 1, 'probability': 0.023830250001887796}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 1, 'probability': 0.023163469964711383}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.025957743774555668, '1': 0.040632505652896146, '2': 0.058747807138900675, '3': 0.07845508717766525, '4': 0.09677472613968406, '5': 0.11025903457628716, '6': 0.11603200928228255, '7': 0.11278538671404406, '8': 0.10126030844860542, '9': 0.08397249395180997, '10': 0.06432003179077458, '11': 0.04550580923219511, '12': 0.029737114573707178, '13': 0.017949080413769275, '14': 0.010006840398874142, '15': 0.005153035518577342, '16': 0.0024509852153714426}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.14343891269993578, '1': 0.20537651764620907, '2': 0.2272480973390262, '3': 0.19431905714953218, '4': 0.12840921831745444, '5': 0.06557566126915722, '6': 0.02587943699491458, '7': 0.007892827989305054, '8': 0.00186027059446541}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.987, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.604, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.503}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.069, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.674, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 6, 'simulation_margin': 6, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 6, 'final_margin': 6, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.503, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 1 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 1 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 1-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-7, final 1-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches SF BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.917 at weight 0.020.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 4, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.75, 'empirical_weight': 0.02, 'blended_confidence': 0.9166, 'published_confidence': 0.565131, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.676/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 3, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 1 - LAD 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.565131, 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538282, 'artifact': '20260918_SF@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026368053339822936}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025630264538412797}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02505615582189916}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 1, 'probability': 0.023830250001887796}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 1, 'probability': 0.023163469964711383}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.025957743774555668, '1': 0.040632505652896146, '2': 0.058747807138900675, '3': 0.07845508717766525, '4': 0.09677472613968406, '5': 0.11025903457628716, '6': 0.11603200928228255, '7': 0.11278538671404406, '8': 0.10126030844860542, '9': 0.08397249395180997, '10': 0.06432003179077458, '11': 0.04550580923219511, '12': 0.029737114573707178, '13': 0.017949080413769275, '14': 0.010006840398874142, '15': 0.005153035518577342, '16': 0.0024509852153714426}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.14343891269993578, '1': 0.20537651764620907, '2': 0.2272480973390262, '3': 0.19431905714953218, '4': 0.12840921831745444, '5': 0.06557566126915722, '6': 0.02587943699491458, '7': 0.007892827989305054, '8': 0.00186027059446541}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.987, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.604, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.503}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 7 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.069, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.674, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 6, 'simulation_margin': 6, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 6, 'final_margin': 6, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.503, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 1 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 1 - 7 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 1-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-7, final 1-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=8; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: RBI current=1 box=4; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=8; ER: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Harris: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	2.937413019628335	5.741514674929781		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	6	0.565	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
LAD	2	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		7			1		7	3	4					8.0	6	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		3			0		1	3	9					9.0	1	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	30	3	1	0	0	1	1	3	9	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		8			1		7	3	4					8.0	7	35	146
simulation	LAD	batting	31	8	1	1	1	7	7	3	4	1	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		3			0		1	3	9					9.0	1	33	143

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		LF	Turner Hill	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		DH	Victor Bericoto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		1B	Brett Harris	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		2B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	SF		3B	Shay Whitcomb	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		DH	Josue De Paula	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Alex Freeland	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	CF	Jonah Cox	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	2	LF	Turner Hill	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	3	DH	Victor Bericoto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	4	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	5	1B	Brett Harris	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SF	6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	7	C	Andrew Knizner	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	8	2B	Osleivis Basabe	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	C	Will Smith	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	DH	Josue De Paula	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	CF	Tommy Edman	4	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Alex Freeland	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Yunior Marte	Starter	5.0	6	6	5	2	3	1	0	0	9.00	2.45	1.09
current	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.47
current	SF	3	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.30	1.57
current	SF	4	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.33	1.09
current	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	0.95
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.28	1.01
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.82	1.01
current	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.83	1.13
simulation	SF	1	Yunior Marte	Starter	5.0	6	6	6	2	3	1	23	97	10.80	2.45	1.09
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.50	1.47
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.33	1.09
simulation	SF	4	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.30	1.57
simulation	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	0	0	0	2	7	0	21	96	0.00	2.70	0.95
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.82	1.01
simulation	LAD	3	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.28	1.01
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	4	15	0.00	2.83	1.13

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Yunior Marte	Starter	5.0	6	6	2	3	23	97
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
LAD	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.1	0	0	2	7	21	96
LAD	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	1	1	1	4	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_TOR@TEX

20260919_TOR@TEX.json • 2026-09-19

TOR 2 - TEX 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: H current=1 box=0; Danny Jansen: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=2; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Springer: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches TOR BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=33 matches TEX BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.706 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.706325, 'sample_size': 701, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5521, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629213, 'published_confidence': 0.611002, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.389.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.611.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.611.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 2, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.611002, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260918_TOR@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523856, 'artifact': '20260627_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260625', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260625_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_TOR@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031914614905981555}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03106447963919528}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029898827001722264}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029102387898678538}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.028743287320139154}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06258991070814979, '1': 0.09544780599874446, '2': 0.12759946997400326, '3': 0.14953852523102362, '4': 0.15363091549535948, '5': 0.13836474475245822, '6': 0.10924298951218417, '7': 0.07561065651432364, '8': 0.045876866193632154, '9': 0.024402020150783247, '10': 0.011378345616158024, '11': 0.004651079507416885, '12': 0.0016666703457629442}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.12188722686577315, '1': 0.17773455781244848, '2': 0.20773562927147665, '3': 0.19461465099858352, '4': 0.14613878882955397, '5': 0.08795912605110863, '6': 0.04243475876389593, '7': 0.016409222340936423, '8': 0.005086039066223399}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0747, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1997}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0519, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.782, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1997, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.611.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches TOR BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=33 matches TEX BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.706 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.706325, 'sample_size': 701, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5521, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.629213, 'published_confidence': 0.611002, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.389.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.611.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.611.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.675/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 2, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.611002, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.505, 'artifact': '20260918_TOR@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523856, 'artifact': '20260627_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260625', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260625_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_TOR@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.031914614905981555}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03106447963919528}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029898827001722264}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029102387898678538}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.028743287320139154}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06258991070814979, '1': 0.09544780599874446, '2': 0.12759946997400326, '3': 0.14953852523102362, '4': 0.15363091549535948, '5': 0.13836474475245822, '6': 0.10924298951218417, '7': 0.07561065651432364, '8': 0.045876866193632154, '9': 0.024402020150783247, '10': 0.011378345616158024, '11': 0.004651079507416885, '12': 0.0016666703457629442}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.12188722686577315, '1': 0.17773455781244848, '2': 0.20773562927147665, '3': 0.19461465099858352, '4': 0.14613878882955397, '5': 0.08795912605110863, '6': 0.04243475876389593, '7': 0.016409222340936423, '8': 0.005086039066223399}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0747, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1997}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0519, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.782, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1997, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.611.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: H current=1 box=0; Danny Jansen: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=2; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Springer: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.2402637399057435	3.9588747398033783		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	4	0.611	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2
TEX	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			1		4	2	6					8.0	4	0	0
current	TEX	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		3			1		2	4	12					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	29	2	0	0	1	2	2	4	12	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			1		4	2	6					8.0	4	33	134
simulation	TEX	batting	31	7	2	0	1	4	4	2	6	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		2			1		2	4	12					9.0	2	33	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Josh Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Danny Jansen	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	3	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Josh Smith	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	LF	Myles Straw	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	SS	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	TEX	2	DH	Corey Seager	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TEX	3	3B	Josh Jung	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	TEX	5	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	7	2B	Nicky Lopez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Danny Jansen	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	CF	Evan Carter	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	6.00	3.56	1.27
current	TOR	2	Brendan Cellucci	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.30	1.00
current	TEX	1	Cal Quantrill	Starter	6.0	1	1	1	0	9	0	0	0	1.50	2.90	1.05
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.71	0.76
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.96	1.16
current	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13.50	3.18	1.43
simulation	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	27	109	6.00	3.56	1.27
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	1.30	1.00
simulation	TOR	3	Brendan Cellucci	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	TEX	1	Cal Quantrill	Starter	6.0	0	1	1	0	9	0	18	88	1.50	2.90	1.05
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	31	0.00	1.71	0.76
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	0	6	24	0.00	2.96	1.16
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	3	11	13.50	3.18	1.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	José Soriano	Starter	6.0	4	7	2	5	27	109
TOR	Brendan Cellucci	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
TEX	Cal Quantrill	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	9	18	88
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	0	0	2	0	6	31
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	2	1	6	24
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	2	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260919_WAS@STL

20260919_WAS@STL.json • 2026-09-19

WAS 5 - STL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Scott II: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jordan Walker: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Abimelec Ortiz: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches STL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.639 -> 0.594 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.638528, 'sample_size': 623, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.549, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.593764, 'published_confidence': 0.543104, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.457.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 8, STL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-04-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509375, 'artifact': '20260918_WAS@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0708, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.384, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'WAS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2547, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_WAS@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.0312, 'away_run_delta': 0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020688134665912537}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020536261065154125}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019980228201181324}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833551410359383}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018820607237591762}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06102582554027518, '1': 0.09316661856848486, '2': 0.12496788225168874, '3': 0.147274614225764, '4': 0.15249260525426733, '5': 0.13872702766463232, '6': 0.11088295343398405, '7': 0.07786815697300022, '8': 0.04804480256200254, '9': 0.02604499851834724, '10': 0.012404911431701113, '11': 0.005191040358557739, '12': 0.0019085632172946643}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0449576759083006, '1': 0.06941788435888913, '2': 0.09633231654441551, '3': 0.12014501160361096, '4': 0.13467053717727365, '5': 0.13566647793456596, '6': 0.12283032963863263, '7': 0.09994746731927384, '8': 0.0730922075592201, '9': 0.048040052488442286, '10': 0.02837716313046052, '11': 0.015064946354085089, '12': 0.007187855062774946, '13': 0.00308222360615728, '14': 0.001187851313897311}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1851, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.384, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2547}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0708, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.384, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'WAS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2547, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.543.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches STL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.639 -> 0.594 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.638528, 'sample_size': 623, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.549, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.593764, 'published_confidence': 0.543104, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.457.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.512/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 8, STL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-04-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260918', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 8, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509375, 'artifact': '20260918_WAS@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0708, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.384, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'WAS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2547, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-19.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260919_WAS@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.0312, 'away_run_delta': 0.0312, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020688134665912537}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020536261065154125}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019980228201181324}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019833551410359383}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018820607237591762}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06102582554027518, '1': 0.09316661856848486, '2': 0.12496788225168874, '3': 0.147274614225764, '4': 0.15249260525426733, '5': 0.13872702766463232, '6': 0.11088295343398405, '7': 0.07786815697300022, '8': 0.04804480256200254, '9': 0.02604499851834724, '10': 0.012404911431701113, '11': 0.005191040358557739, '12': 0.0019085632172946643}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0449576759083006, '1': 0.06941788435888913, '2': 0.09633231654441551, '3': 0.12014501160361096, '4': 0.13467053717727365, '5': 0.13566647793456596, '6': 0.12283032963863263, '7': 0.09994746731927384, '8': 0.0730922075592201, '9': 0.048040052488442286, '10': 0.02837716313046052, '11': 0.015064946354085089, '12': 0.007187855062774946, '13': 0.00308222360615728, '14': 0.001187851313897311}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1851, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.384, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2547}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0708, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.384, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'WAS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'WAS', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.2547, 'winner': 'WAS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.543.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Scott II: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jordan Walker: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Abimelec Ortiz: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.267219736223045	3.990734686192796		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.543	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	5	8
STL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		8			0		4	2	10					9.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		8			0		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	35	8	2	0	0	5	5	3	7	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		8			0		4	2	10					9.0	4	37	159
simulation	STL	batting	35	8	2	0	0	4	4	2	10	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		8			0		5	3	7					9.0	5	38	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		DH	Abimelec Ortiz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		2B	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	WAS		1B	Andrés Chaparro	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		3B	José Fermín	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		2B	Thomas Saggese	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		LF	Victor Scott II	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.200
simulation	WAS	2	LF	Daylen Lile	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	3	DH	Abimelec Ortiz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	2B	CJ Abrams	4	3	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	WAS	5	CF	Dylan Crews	4	3	2	1	0	1	3	1	0	0.667
simulation	WAS	6	3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	1B	Andrés Chaparro	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	1	3B	José Fermín	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	4	1B	Leonardo Bernal	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	5	2B	Thomas Saggese	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	7	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	8	C	Pedro Pagés	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	9	LF	Victor Scott II	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	1	5	0	0	1.59	3.35	1.27
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.94	1.24
current	WAS	3	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2.38	1.15
current	WAS	4	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	5	3	3	0	2	0	0	27.00	9.00	2.33
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	3	7	0	0	3.18	3.83	1.24
current	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.21	1.31
current	STL	3	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.05	1.33
current	STL	4	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	40.50	4.36	1.42
simulation	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	1	5	21	96	1.59	3.35	1.27
simulation	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	4	17	0.00	2.38	1.15
simulation	WAS	3	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	4	18	0.00	3.94	1.24
simulation	WAS	4	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	5	3	3	0	2	8	28	27.00	9.00	2.33
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	3	2	2	3	7	23	92	3.18	3.83	1.24
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	4.21	1.31
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	6	20	40.50	4.36	1.42
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.05	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.2	1	3	1	5	21	96
WAS	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	18
WAS	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
WAS	Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	5	0	2	8	28
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	2	3	3	7	23	92
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	19
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	3	4	0	0	6	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.