MLB JSON Audit Report

20260918_ATL@HOU

20260918_ATL@HOU.json • 2026-09-18

ATL 4 - HOU 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: RBI current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.655 -> 0.603 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.65504, 'sample_size': 687, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60262, 'published_confidence': 0.561644, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.438.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, HOU 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5616437, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_ATL@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025936014713606816}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02447229764312428}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02431145974820688}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023913171802992596}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023909166642512178}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08399534987913759, '1': 0.12612575467972817, '2': 0.16097092790815182, '3': 0.17461689138363456, '4': 0.16099789306375903, '5': 0.12616801430394345, '6': 0.0840375685669093, '7': 0.04757653667798695, '8': 0.02289324234199395, '9': 0.009363040932733994, '10': 0.003254780262021107}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056361010077317475, '1': 0.0863315188880106, '2': 0.11696051999599401, '3': 0.1401485128340675, '4': 0.1485309611693018, '5': 0.13922742270559854, '6': 0.11542818603894016, '7': 0.08464050624264063, '8': 0.05489387996677271, '9': 0.03148827712771173, '10': 0.015975452350729367, '11': 0.007168639220769677, '12': 0.002845113382145889}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1699, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.068, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7843}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0898, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.068, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7843, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.562.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.655 -> 0.603 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.65504, 'sample_size': 687, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.60262, 'published_confidence': 0.561644, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.562.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.438.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, HOU 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5616437, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_ATL@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025936014713606816}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02447229764312428}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02431145974820688}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023913171802992596}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023909166642512178}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08399534987913759, '1': 0.12612575467972817, '2': 0.16097092790815182, '3': 0.17461689138363456, '4': 0.16099789306375903, '5': 0.12616801430394345, '6': 0.0840375685669093, '7': 0.04757653667798695, '8': 0.02289324234199395, '9': 0.009363040932733994, '10': 0.003254780262021107}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.056361010077317475, '1': 0.0863315188880106, '2': 0.11696051999599401, '3': 0.1401485128340675, '4': 0.1485309611693018, '5': 0.13922742270559854, '6': 0.11542818603894016, '7': 0.08464050624264063, '8': 0.05489387996677271, '9': 0.03148827712771173, '10': 0.015975452350729367, '11': 0.007168639220769677, '12': 0.002845113382145889}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.1699, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.068, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7843}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0898, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.068, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ATL', 'model_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'ATL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7843, 'winner': 'ATL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.562.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: SO current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: RBI current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.349751137050081	4.071575429222362		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.562	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	4	8
HOU	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		4			0		3	4	6					9.0	3	0	0
current	HOU	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		8			2		4	3	2					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	35	8	2	0	2	4	4	3	2	0	1
simulation	ATL	pitching		5			0		3	4	6					9.0	3	38	162
simulation	HOU	batting	32	5	2	0	0	3	3	4	6	0	2
simulation	HOU	pitching		8			2		4	3	2					9.0	4	39	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	5	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	6	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	C	Sean Murphy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	5	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Taylor Trammell	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	9	C	Christian Vázquez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	6.0	3	3	3	3	4	0	0	0	4.50	3.91	1.25
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.23	1.05
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.81	0.89
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.73	1.14
current	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	3.38	3.71	1.22
current	HOU	2	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	13.50	3.26	1.21
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.31
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.62	0.58
simulation	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	6.0	3	3	3	3	4	0	26	109	4.50	3.91	1.25
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.73	1.14
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.81	0.89
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00	2.23	1.05
simulation	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	2	2	1	24	96	3.38	3.71	1.22
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	0.62	0.58
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	3.77	1.31
simulation	HOU	4	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	1	6	24	13.50	3.26	1.21

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Tyler Mahle	Starter	6.0	3	3	3	4	26	109
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	20
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
HOU	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	2	5	2	2	24	96
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	6	24
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_BOS@TB

20260918_BOS@TB.json • 2026-09-18

BOS 4 - TB 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Caleb Durbin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nate Eaton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=14).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Chandler Simpson: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Junior Caminero: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Fortes: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=40 matches TB BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=38 matches BOS BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.700 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.70047, 'sample_size': 368, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5571, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.628785, 'published_confidence': 0.572303, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.428.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 11, TB 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260718', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260718_TB@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260717', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260717_TB@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.093, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.57, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3301, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_BOS@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0923, 'away_run_delta': 0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019103554513367645}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018929488108378162}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018636746332436584}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01846693335692367}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017613609047013576}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03349771668196702, '1': 0.052148953908011275, '2': 0.07417112314201421, '3': 0.09637912256105104, '4': 0.11441683741154443, '5': 0.12409542444733455, '6': 0.12296470061297815, '7': 0.1113176432227151, '8': 0.09206751213407932, '9': 0.06956770409313603, '10': 0.048025046303827715, '11': 0.03028912811137439, '12': 0.0174527798436467, '13': 0.00918758366610414, '14': 0.004418723860215767}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06304162682524111, '1': 0.09610562879009771, '2': 0.1283545087753367, '3': 0.15018076947990877, '4': 0.15394245677023405, '5': 0.13824307739744776, '6': 0.1087600164319027, '7': 0.07496111328737436, '8': 0.045263036235026116, '9': 0.02394375333785778, '10': 0.011096388882032121, '11': 0.004505178459691255, '12': 0.0016024453278494597}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0879, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.78, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3301}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.093, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.57, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3301, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.572.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=40 matches TB BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=38 matches BOS BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.700 -> 0.629 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.70047, 'sample_size': 368, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5571, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.628785, 'published_confidence': 0.572303, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.428.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 11, TB 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BOS', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260718', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260718_TB@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260717', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260717_TB@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BOS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.093, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.57, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3301, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_BOS@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@TB.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -16.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 16.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0923, 'away_run_delta': 0.0923, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -10.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.019103554513367645}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018929488108378162}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018636746332436584}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.01846693335692367}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017613609047013576}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03349771668196702, '1': 0.052148953908011275, '2': 0.07417112314201421, '3': 0.09637912256105104, '4': 0.11441683741154443, '5': 0.12409542444733455, '6': 0.12296470061297815, '7': 0.1113176432227151, '8': 0.09206751213407932, '9': 0.06956770409313603, '10': 0.048025046303827715, '11': 0.03028912811137439, '12': 0.0174527798436467, '13': 0.00918758366610414, '14': 0.004418723860215767}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06304162682524111, '1': 0.09610562879009771, '2': 0.1283545087753367, '3': 0.15018076947990877, '4': 0.15394245677023405, '5': 0.13824307739744776, '6': 0.1087600164319027, '7': 0.07496111328737436, '8': 0.045263036235026116, '9': 0.02394375333785778, '10': 0.011096388882032121, '11': 0.004505178459691255, '12': 0.0016024453278494597}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0879, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.78, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3301}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.093, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.57, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3301, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.572.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Caleb Durbin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nate Eaton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=14).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Chandler Simpson: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Junior Caminero: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Fortes: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.018712407434269	4.734368011577285		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.572	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	11
TB	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	3	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		9			1		5	4	14					8.0	5	0	0
current	TB	batting	32	9	2	0	1	4	5	2	7	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		11			1		4	0	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	38	11	4	0	1	4	4	0	6	0	2
simulation	BOS	pitching		9			1		5	4	14					8.1	5	38	173
simulation	TB	batting	34	9	1	0	1	5	5	4	14	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		11			1		4	0	6					9.0	4	40	136

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		1B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		CF	Nate Eaton	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		DH	Jahmai Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Roman Anthony	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Nick Sogard	5	5	3	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	BOS	3	DH	Jahmai Jones	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	8	CF	Nate Eaton	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	9	C	Connor Wong	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TB	4	2B	Ryan Vilade	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	TB	6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	TB	7	C	Nick Fortes	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.2	6	2	2	2	10	1	0	0	3.18	3.33	1.19
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.07
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	1.78	0.83
current	BOS	4	Erik Miller	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.28
current	TB	1	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	1.80	3.90	1.10
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.37	0.84
current	TB	3	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	0.79
current	TB	4	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.03	1.19
current	TB	5	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.54	0.90
simulation	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.2	6	2	2	2	10	1	26	109	3.18	3.33	1.19
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	29	0.00	1.42	1.07
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	0.00	2.61	1.28
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	3	3	1	1	0	7	31	20.25	1.78	0.83
simulation	TB	1	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	0	6	0	20	72	1.80	3.90	1.10
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.37	0.84
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	1	6	22	9.00	2.54	0.90
simulation	TB	4	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	2.13	0.79
simulation	TB	5	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	10	18.00	4.03	1.19

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.2	2	6	2	10	26	109
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	29
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	3	1	1	7	31
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	4
TB	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.0	1	3	0	6	20	72
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
TB	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	10
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_CHC@CIN

20260918_CHC@CIN.json • 2026-09-18

CHC 6 - CIN 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Carlos Jorge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.764 -> 0.658 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.764173, 'sample_size': 686, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.657587, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.650/0.860.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 9, CIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260830_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260711_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0629, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6772, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_CHC@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018925782462105}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01891473267324469}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018643560221875386}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018632675208034154}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017629777969424987}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06785646534463297, '1': 0.10308939956491595, '2': 0.13626377197538522, '3': 0.15670773121906606, '4': 0.156799278235493, '5': 0.1365027231220229, '6': 0.10339087033264274, '7': 0.06813443939179994, '8': 0.03906562730378365, '9': 0.019487967104412876, '10': 0.00845827679266143, '11': 0.0031940438061825787, '12': 0.0010494058070007683}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.030379449160238003, '1': 0.04739852906043575, '2': 0.06786062237859389, '3': 0.08915358624564942, '4': 0.10748003560950074, '5': 0.1189008038281597, '6': 0.12070069884939667, '7': 0.11243532602839698, '8': 0.09610894000656102, '9': 0.07538636383973842, '10': 0.054261251960787044, '11': 0.035838912971935616, '12': 0.021721401952649197, '13': 0.012080610463387412, '14': 0.0061653525310976, '15': 0.0028873202236271113, '16': 0.001240794889845697}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0784, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.932, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6772}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0629, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6772, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.764 -> 0.658 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.764173, 'sample_size': 686, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.657587, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.650/0.860.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 9, CIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260830_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260711_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0629, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6772, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_CHC@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0808, 'away_run_delta': 0.0808, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018925782462105}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01891473267324469}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018643560221875386}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018632675208034154}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017629777969424987}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06785646534463297, '1': 0.10308939956491595, '2': 0.13626377197538522, '3': 0.15670773121906606, '4': 0.156799278235493, '5': 0.1365027231220229, '6': 0.10339087033264274, '7': 0.06813443939179994, '8': 0.03906562730378365, '9': 0.019487967104412876, '10': 0.00845827679266143, '11': 0.0031940438061825787, '12': 0.0010494058070007683}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.030379449160238003, '1': 0.04739852906043575, '2': 0.06786062237859389, '3': 0.08915358624564942, '4': 0.10748003560950074, '5': 0.1189008038281597, '6': 0.12070069884939667, '7': 0.11243532602839698, '8': 0.09610894000656102, '9': 0.07538636383973842, '10': 0.054261251960787044, '11': 0.035838912971935616, '12': 0.021721401952649197, '13': 0.012080610463387412, '14': 0.0061653525310976, '15': 0.0028873202236271113, '16': 0.001240794889845697}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.0784, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.932, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.6772}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0629, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.002, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.6772, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Carlos Jorge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.052520705928126	4.865194707142685		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	6	9
CIN	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	6	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		3			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	0	0
current	CIN	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	3	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			3		6	5	8					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	36	9	1	0	3	6	6	5	8	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		3			1		4	3	5					9.0	4	34	138
simulation	CIN	batting	29	3	2	0	1	4	4	3	5	1	1
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			3		6	5	8					9.0	6	41	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		DH	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Carlos Jorge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		C	Jose Trevino	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	5	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	6	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	DH	Michael Conforto	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	8	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Carlos Jorge	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	DH	Tyler Stephenson	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	CIN	5	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	3B	Eugenio Suárez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	C	Jose Trevino	3	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	9	2B	Matt McLain	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	2	3	3	1	5	1	0	0	4.76	2.85	1.15
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.91	1.26
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.53	1.27
current	CHC	4	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	4.03	1.28
current	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	6	2	0	0	5.40	2.80	1.15
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.28
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.03
current	CIN	4	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	6.03	1.63
simulation	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	2	3	3	1	5	1	21	84	4.76	2.85	1.15
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.53	1.27
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	20	9.00	4.03	1.28
simulation	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.91	1.26
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	6	2	22	98	5.40	2.80	1.15
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	24	0.00	3.63	1.03
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	1	7	26	27.00	6.03	1.63
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	6	35	0.00	2.40	1.28

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Clay Holmes	Starter	5.2	3	2	1	5	21	84
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
CIN	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	3	5	2	6	22	98
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	0	6	35
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	24
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	1	1	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_DET@CHW

20260918_DET@CHW.json • 2026-09-18

DET 6 - CHW 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Randal Grichuk: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Torkelson: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches CHW BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.677 -> 0.619 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.676695, 'sample_size': 560, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5607, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.618698, 'published_confidence': 0.543489, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.457.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.505/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, CHW 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 6 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260917_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548872, 'artifact': '20260816_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260815_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260814_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0481, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.726, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4508, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_DET@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017867965148430087}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01774307568003823}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01692086002856012}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016802590421688544}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016726058844144652}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05476603559051174, '1': 0.08398373808804195, '2': 0.11416814839754508, '3': 0.1375816691750611, '4': 0.14697451998642327, '5': 0.13918402346299555, '6': 0.11684296870087589, '7': 0.08695241305872617, '8': 0.057362299763405476, '9': 0.03354573643488116, '10': 0.017390575976321668, '11': 0.007992018151630347, '12': 0.0032558532135805603}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031411474802779144, '1': 0.048973037553896204, '2': 0.06996184467333466, '3': 0.09158006708752726, '4': 0.10984395414868064, '5': 0.120722120280966, '6': 0.12157185578888528, '7': 0.11217981860759113, '8': 0.09484881646349665, '9': 0.07348261350602885, '10': 0.05216422598719515, '11': 0.03393098261757602, '12': 0.020223466554485002, '13': 0.011044606847958681, '14': 0.005526884849840314, '15': 0.0025342302297592587}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1895, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.936, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4508}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0481, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.726, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4508, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.543.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches CHW BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.677 -> 0.619 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.676695, 'sample_size': 560, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5607, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.618698, 'published_confidence': 0.543489, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.543.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.457.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.505/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, CHW 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 6 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260917_DET@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260816', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548872, 'artifact': '20260816_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260815', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260815_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260814', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260814_CHW@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0481, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.726, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4508, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_DET@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0462, 'away_run_delta': -0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.017867965148430087}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01774307568003823}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01692086002856012}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016802590421688544}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016726058844144652}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05476603559051174, '1': 0.08398373808804195, '2': 0.11416814839754508, '3': 0.1375816691750611, '4': 0.14697451998642327, '5': 0.13918402346299555, '6': 0.11684296870087589, '7': 0.08695241305872617, '8': 0.057362299763405476, '9': 0.03354573643488116, '10': 0.017390575976321668, '11': 0.007992018151630347, '12': 0.0032558532135805603}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031411474802779144, '1': 0.048973037553896204, '2': 0.06996184467333466, '3': 0.09158006708752726, '4': 0.10984395414868064, '5': 0.120722120280966, '6': 0.12157185578888528, '7': 0.11217981860759113, '8': 0.09484881646349665, '9': 0.07348261350602885, '10': 0.05216422598719515, '11': 0.03393098261757602, '12': 0.020223466554485002, '13': 0.011044606847958681, '14': 0.005526884849840314, '15': 0.0025342302297592587}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1895, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.936, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4508}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 6 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0481, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.726, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4508, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 6 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.543.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Randal Grichuk: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Torkelson: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.4753300218092695	4.286105825507754		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	4	0.543	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	8
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		5			1		4	4	9					9.0	4	0	0
current	CHW	batting	31	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		8			1		6	4	12					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	35	8	4	0	1	6	6	4	12	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		5			1		4	4	9					9.0	4	36	162
simulation	CHW	batting	32	5	2	0	1	4	4	4	9	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		8			1		6	4	12					9.0	6	39	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	DET		DH	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	DET		C	Eduardo Valencia	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		DH	Tommy Pham	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		LF	Randal Grichuk	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	DET	3	DH	Colt Keith	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	5	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	DET	6	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	DET	7	CF	Max Clark	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	8	C	Eduardo Valencia	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	DET	9	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHW	1	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	2	DH	Tommy Pham	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	LF	Randal Grichuk	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	5	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	C	Kyle Teel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHW	9	RF	Tristan Peters	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Andrew Sears	Starter	4.2	1	2	2	1	6	0	0	0	3.86	5.40	1.38
current	DET	2	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	4	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.78	1.22
current	DET	3	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.14
current	DET	4	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	1.07
current	DET	5	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.59	0.91
current	CHW	1	David Sandlin	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	3	6	0	0	0	5.06	5.64	1.19
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.11
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	0	27.00	2.58	1.16
simulation	DET	1	Andrew Sears	Starter	4.2	1	2	2	1	6	0	16	78	3.86	5.40	1.38
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.00	1.07
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	4	2	2	1	1	1	9	37	13.50	2.78	1.22
simulation	DET	4	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.75	1.14
simulation	DET	5	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.59	0.91
simulation	CHW	1	David Sandlin	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	3	6	0	23	103	5.06	5.64	1.19
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	29	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	19	0.00	2.77	1.11
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	8	29	27.00	2.58	1.16

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Andrew Sears	Starter	4.2	2	1	1	6	16	78
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	2	4	1	1	9	37
DET	Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
DET	Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
CHW	David Sandlin	Starter	5.1	3	4	3	6	23	103
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	29
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	19
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	4	1	2	8	29

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_KC@PIT

20260918_KC@PIT.json • 2026-09-18

KC 3 - PIT 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Maikel Garcia: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Rave: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Davis: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.614 -> 0.584 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.613566, 'sample_size': 233, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5536, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.583583, 'published_confidence': 0.586204, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.414.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.586.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.586.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 4, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - PIT 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.58620445, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_KC@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026243517540663848}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025306309997451478}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02507733124101299}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02422298549425123}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.024181770500487424}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051943446620203594, '1': 0.07981562729250341, '2': 0.10915848561814251, '3': 0.13287383670241174, '4': 0.14395735261545792, '5': 0.13881635287855004, '6': 0.11914060778511482, '7': 0.09101047796923346, '8': 0.061877873710225476, '9': 0.03744482204440537, '10': 0.020167894590159153, '11': 0.009668113879160967, '12': 0.004125108294431592}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09354783093526158, '1': 0.1394641683032739, '2': 0.17419972502550887, '3': 0.18230064018172185, '4': 0.1598397630672957, '5': 0.1174187263438083, '6': 0.07226796208767527, '7': 0.037265774839516264, '8': 0.016100168005635494, '9': 0.0058278258430838215, '10': 0.00176741536721912}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8791, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.256, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.661}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0065, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.256, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.661, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 3 - 4 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 4 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.586.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.614 -> 0.584 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.613566, 'sample_size': 233, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5536, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.583583, 'published_confidence': 0.586204, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.414.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.586.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.586.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 4, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - PIT 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.58620445, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_KC@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026243517540663848}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.025306309997451478}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02507733124101299}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02422298549425123}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.024181770500487424}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.051943446620203594, '1': 0.07981562729250341, '2': 0.10915848561814251, '3': 0.13287383670241174, '4': 0.14395735261545792, '5': 0.13881635287855004, '6': 0.11914060778511482, '7': 0.09101047796923346, '8': 0.061877873710225476, '9': 0.03744482204440537, '10': 0.020167894590159153, '11': 0.009668113879160967, '12': 0.004125108294431592}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09354783093526158, '1': 0.1394641683032739, '2': 0.17419972502550887, '3': 0.18230064018172185, '4': 0.1598397630672957, '5': 0.1174187263438083, '6': 0.07226796208767527, '7': 0.037265774839516264, '8': 0.016100168005635494, '9': 0.0058278258430838215, '10': 0.00176741536721912}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8791, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.256, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.661}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0065, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.256, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'PIT', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.661, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 3 - 4 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 4 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.586.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Maikel Garcia: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; John Rave: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Isbel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Davis: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.270349611948091	5.814714139830438		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.586	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	4
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		6			0		4	0	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	PIT	batting	35	8	2	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		4			1		3	6	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	31	4	1	0	1	3	3	6	9	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		7			0		4	1	8					8.2	4	35	139
simulation	PIT	batting	32	7	1	0	0	4	4	1	8	1	1
simulation	PIT	pitching		4			1		3	6	9					9.0	3	37	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		LF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Ronny Simon	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	4	3B	Maikel Garcia	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	5	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	DH	Salvador Perez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	LF	John Rave	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	RF	Nick Loftin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	1	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	4	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	5	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	6	DH	Ryan O'Hearn	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	PIT	7	RF	Ronny Simon	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	2	3	3	0	7	0	0	0	4.50	2.73	1.27
current	KC	2	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.51	1.19
current	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.13	1.25
current	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	2	5	1	0	0	3.38	3.78	1.13
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.41	1.11
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.84	0.98
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.39	1.00
simulation	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	0	7	0	23	94	3.00	2.73	1.27
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.13	1.25
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.2	5	2	2	1	0	0	9	32	10.80	2.51	1.19
simulation	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	2	5	1	21	96	3.38	3.78	1.13
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.39	1.00
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	3	1	0	7	28	9.00	2.84	0.98
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.41	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	2	2	0	7	23	94
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.2	2	5	1	0	9	32
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
PIT	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.1	2	3	2	5	21	96
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	3	1	7	28
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_MIA@SD

20260918_MIA@SD.json • 2026-09-18

MIA 4 - SD 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Samad Taylor: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Ty France: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=34 matches SD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=33 matches MIA BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.756 -> 0.646 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.75648, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64629, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 2, SD 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 4 - SD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260726', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260726_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260725_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0513, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3852, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIA@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0614, 'away_run_delta': -0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017561836596230562}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01690688988881116}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016824581362546723}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.016679751956904184}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016323595043723584}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.026947084454367894, '1': 0.04214992573412116, '2': 0.06080649506195175, '3': 0.08090423492212813, '4': 0.09927974809797509, '5': 0.11236167502926717, '6': 0.11728537750933117, '7': 0.11291136620320927, '8': 0.10025350879803395, '9': 0.08209744242166205, '10': 0.06200515550169656, '11': 0.0431910837221076, '12': 0.027747798267640938, '13': 0.016441108016880545, '14': 0.008984662415708016, '15': 0.0045283561055978, '16': 0.002104977738320536}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05767636799010304, '1': 0.08826360041105022, '2': 0.11924245540438436, '3': 0.14221510226692283, '4': 0.14973594295532153, '5': 0.13917843289906182, '6': 0.1142045373556935, '7': 0.08272948327893224, '8': 0.05290574094597139, '9': 0.029868322140497776, '10': 0.014886218479146998, '11': 0.006549731350803189, '12': 0.0025440645221113584}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2222, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.688, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3852}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0513, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3852, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 4 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 4 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=34 matches SD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=33 matches MIA BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.756 -> 0.646 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.75648, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.64629, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 2, SD 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 4 - SD 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260726', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260726_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260725', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260725_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260724', 'away': 'SD', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260724_SD@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0513, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3852, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIA@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0614, 'away_run_delta': -0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017561836596230562}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01690688988881116}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016824581362546723}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.016679751956904184}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016323595043723584}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.026947084454367894, '1': 0.04214992573412116, '2': 0.06080649506195175, '3': 0.08090423492212813, '4': 0.09927974809797509, '5': 0.11236167502926717, '6': 0.11728537750933117, '7': 0.11291136620320927, '8': 0.10025350879803395, '9': 0.08209744242166205, '10': 0.06200515550169656, '11': 0.0431910837221076, '12': 0.027747798267640938, '13': 0.016441108016880545, '14': 0.008984662415708016, '15': 0.0045283561055978, '16': 0.002104977738320536}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05767636799010304, '1': 0.08826360041105022, '2': 0.11924245540438436, '3': 0.14221510226692283, '4': 0.14973594295532153, '5': 0.13917843289906182, '6': 0.1142045373556935, '7': 0.08272948327893224, '8': 0.05290574094597139, '9': 0.029868322140497776, '10': 0.014886218479146998, '11': 0.006549731350803189, '12': 0.0025440645221113584}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2222, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.688, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3852}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIA 4 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0513, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.038, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3852, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 4 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 4 - 6 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Samad Taylor: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Ty France: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.1175453245572937	4.746137701017072		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	2
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	6	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	34	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		5			2		6	2	9					8.0	6	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		2			0		4	3	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	29	2	1	0	0	4	4	3	9	0	2
simulation	MIA	pitching		5			2		6	2	9					8.0	6	33	147
simulation	SD	batting	29	5	1	0	2	6	6	2	9	0	2
simulation	SD	pitching		2			0		4	3	9					9.0	4	34	140

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Dustin Harris	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SD		DH	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Samad Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	SD		C	Ethan Salas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	1B	Kyle Stowers	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	4	1	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	3	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	RF	Griffin Conine	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	DH	Agustín Ramírez	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	2	RF	Dustin Harris	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	DH	Manny Machado	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	3	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SD	6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	3B	Jake Cronenworth	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	LF	Samad Taylor	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Ethan Salas	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.33
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.32
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	4	4	2	2	1	0	0	27.00	3.08	1.11
current	MIA	6	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	0.1	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	54.00	5.02	1.38
current	SD	1	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	1	3	3	3	6	0	0	0	5.40	3.60	1.00
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.87	1.07
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.85	0.99
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.12	0.85
current	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.92	1.11
simulation	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	0	6	0	17	75	0.00	3.55	1.33
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	28	0.00	3.50	1.32
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	0.1	3	2	2	0	1	1	4	13	54.00	5.02	1.38
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	4	4	2	2	1	8	31	27.00	3.08	1.11
simulation	SD	1	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	1	3	3	3	6	0	21	85	5.40	3.60	1.00
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.12	0.85
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	16	9.00	2.87	1.07
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.85	0.99
simulation	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.92	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	6	17	75
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	28
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	4	2	2	2	8	31
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	0.1	2	3	0	1	4	13
SD	Nick Pivetta	Starter	5.0	3	1	3	6	21	85
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
SD	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_MIL@BAL

20260918_MIL@BAL.json • 2026-09-18

MIL 7 - BAL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Leody Taveras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Lara: R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=40 matches BAL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.730 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 211, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5403, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.73015, 'published_confidence': 0.66567, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.666.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.666.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.334.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.476/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 11, BAL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66567, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIL@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015530885901760903}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015482076022220537}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01474464720855413}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01469830829017774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01459265099998894}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05759255972823514, '1': 0.08814060857710218, '2': 0.11909762515025106, '3': 0.14208477754329268, '4': 0.14966125924815188, '5': 0.13918378151545424, '6': 0.11428395507590995, '7': 0.08285129197271983, '8': 0.05303110808642308, '9': 0.029969500993272266, '10': 0.014953598476372896, '11': 0.006587631714960987, '12': 0.0025623019178537577}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.016968451085997635, '1': 0.026747219041442057, '2': 0.039489897003168635, '3': 0.05460900971161885, '4': 0.07073160848743937, '5': 0.08580916995155025, '6': 0.09750453172248809, '7': 0.10377358830055874, '8': 0.10344745260060827, '9': 0.09658811719939961, '10': 0.08446922965495604, '11': 0.06919015442516115, '12': 0.053083677202042816, '13': 0.038145967338328736, '14': 0.025674807663426186, '15': 0.01618589424382906, '16': 0.009557342093439381, '17': 0.005285772869631916, '18': 0.002738109404913278}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.6536, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.492, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.247}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.492, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.247, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.666.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=40 matches BAL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.730 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 211, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5403, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.73015, 'published_confidence': 0.66567, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.666.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.666.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.334.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.476/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 11, BAL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - BAL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66567, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIL@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.015530885901760903}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015482076022220537}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.01474464720855413}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01469830829017774}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01459265099998894}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05759255972823514, '1': 0.08814060857710218, '2': 0.11909762515025106, '3': 0.14208477754329268, '4': 0.14966125924815188, '5': 0.13918378151545424, '6': 0.11428395507590995, '7': 0.08285129197271983, '8': 0.05303110808642308, '9': 0.029969500993272266, '10': 0.014953598476372896, '11': 0.006587631714960987, '12': 0.0025623019178537577}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.016968451085997635, '1': 0.026747219041442057, '2': 0.039489897003168635, '3': 0.05460900971161885, '4': 0.07073160848743937, '5': 0.08580916995155025, '6': 0.09750453172248809, '7': 0.10377358830055874, '8': 0.10344745260060827, '9': 0.09658811719939961, '10': 0.08446922965495604, '11': 0.06919015442516115, '12': 0.053083677202042816, '13': 0.038145967338328736, '14': 0.025674807663426186, '15': 0.01618589424382906, '16': 0.009557342093439381, '17': 0.005285772869631916, '18': 0.002738109404913278}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.6536, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.492, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.247}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.492, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.247, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.666.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Leody Taveras: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Lara: R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.572328442813434	4.3112164976205865		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	4	0.666	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	7	11
BAL	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	33	9	2	0	1	5	6	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			1		4	2	5					9.0	4	0	0
current	BAL	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		11			4		7	2	10					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	38	11	3	0	4	7	7	2	10	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		6			1		4	2	5					9.0	4	35	130
simulation	BAL	batting	33	6	1	0	1	4	4	2	5	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		11			4		7	2	10					9.0	7	40	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	BAL		LF	Dylan Beavers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		C	Samuel Basallo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.600
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	3	1	1	1	3	1	0	0.750
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Andrew Vaughn	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Christian Yelich	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	3B	Joey Ortiz	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	8	RF	Luis Lara	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	9	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Dylan Beavers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	3B	Coby Mayo	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	C	Samuel Basallo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	7	CF	Colton Cowser	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	8	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	9	RF	Leody Taveras	3	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Dustin May	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	2	4	1	0	0	7.71	4.49	1.29
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.39
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.11	1.03
current	MIL	4	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.36
current	MIL	5	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.87	0.87
current	BAL	1	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	5	3	2	2	7	2	0	0	4.15	4.05	1.44
current	BAL	3	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.66	1.39
current	BAL	4	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	1.61	1.07
current	BAL	5	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5.40	2.38	0.90
current	BAL	6	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.30	0.91
simulation	MIL	1	Dustin May	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	2	4	1	22	85	7.71	4.49	1.29
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.87	0.87
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.11	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	6	0.00	3.31	1.39
simulation	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.26	1.36
simulation	BAL	1	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	5	3	3	2	7	2	20	90	6.23	4.05	1.44
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	3.66	1.39
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	7	33	5.40	2.38	0.90
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	11	13.50	2.30	0.91
simulation	BAL	5	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	20	6.75	1.61	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Dustin May	Starter	4.2	4	6	2	4	22	85
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	6
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BAL	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	3	5	2	7	20	90
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
BAL	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	20
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	1	2	0	1	7	33
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_MIN@LAA

20260918_MIN@LAA.json • 2026-09-18

MIN 4 - LAA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Ben Ross: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.565 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 508, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5433, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56485, 'published_confidence': 0.534344, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.476/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 4, LAA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.516481, 'artifact': '20260917_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260712_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0573, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.56, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1068, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIN@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0125, 'away_run_delta': 0.0125, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023490493075658096}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023010747637992573}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022566529563982425}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022105654197620565}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021745467638996176}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05253007262826758, '1': 0.08068328993934186, '2': 0.11020681652364646, '3': 0.13386978852905454, '4': 0.14461254145862712, '5': 0.1389244228138586, '6': 0.11868627644668027, '7': 0.09017199327485709, '8': 0.06092451720527971, '9': 0.036606801470225936, '10': 0.01956053517251306, '11': 0.009294990345097167, '12': 0.003927954192550778}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07228278758981822, '1': 0.10948162509914969, '2': 0.14340303044824132, '3': 0.16243745417045036, '4': 0.15912000028417886, '5': 0.13479510421982704, '6': 0.09874934375045442, '7': 0.06256119977173516, '8': 0.034275726669036895, '9': 0.016239738222696466, '10': 0.006653989774411392}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1373, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1068}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0573, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.56, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1068, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.586 -> 0.565 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5864, 'sample_size': 508, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5433, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.56485, 'published_confidence': 0.534344, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.466.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.534.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.476/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 4, LAA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.516481, 'artifact': '20260917_MIN@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260712_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_LAA@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0573, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.56, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1068, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_MIN@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0125, 'away_run_delta': 0.0125, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023490493075658096}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023010747637992573}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022566529563982425}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022105654197620565}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021745467638996176}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05253007262826758, '1': 0.08068328993934186, '2': 0.11020681652364646, '3': 0.13386978852905454, '4': 0.14461254145862712, '5': 0.1389244228138586, '6': 0.11868627644668027, '7': 0.09017199327485709, '8': 0.06092451720527971, '9': 0.036606801470225936, '10': 0.01956053517251306, '11': 0.009294990345097167, '12': 0.003927954192550778}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07228278758981822, '1': 0.10948162509914969, '2': 0.14340303044824132, '3': 0.16243745417045036, '4': 0.15912000028417886, '5': 0.13479510421982704, '6': 0.09874934375045442, '7': 0.06256119977173516, '8': 0.034275726669036895, '9': 0.016239738222696466, '10': 0.006653989774411392}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.1373, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.56, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1068}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0573, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.56, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1068, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.534.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=11, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Ben Ross: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.522165692112488	3.542422117267559		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIN	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	4
LAA	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		4			2		5	4	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAA	batting	32	7	1	0	1	3	4	3	11	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		4			1		4	4	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	34	4	0	0	1	4	4	4	7	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		4			2		5	4	7					10.0	5	38	171
simulation	LAA	batting	34	4	0	0	2	5	5	4	7	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		4			1		4	4	7					10.0	4	38	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Ben Ross	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	LAA		DH	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Oswald Peraza	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		C	Travis d'Arnaud	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Jose Siri	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ben Ross	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	1	DH	Zach Neto	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	5	4	2	0	2	1	4	1	1	0.500
simulation	LAA	3	LF	Jose Siri	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	SS	Oswald Peraza	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	C	Travis d'Arnaud	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	8	2B	Christian Moore	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	RF	Wade Meckler	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Connor Prielipp	Starter	5.0	2	4	4	3	6	2	0	0	7.20	5.24	1.34
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.93	1.02
current	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.31
current	MIN	4	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.22	1.45
current	MIN	7	Tommy Nance	Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	2	4	1	0	0	5.40	6.10	1.56
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.40	1.19
current	LAA	4	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	6.75	3.99	1.24
current	LAA	5	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.03
simulation	MIN	1	Connor Prielipp	Starter	5.0	2	4	4	3	6	2	20	93	7.20	5.24	1.34
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	4.22	1.45
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.52	1.31
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	0.00	1.93	1.02
simulation	MIN	5	Tommy Nance	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	4.06	1.37
simulation	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	2	4	1	20	88	5.40	6.10	1.56
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	7	29	0.00	4.40	1.19
simulation	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	7	28	6.75	3.99	1.24
simulation	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.79	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Connor Prielipp	Starter	5.0	4	2	3	6	20	93
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	21
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
MIN	Tommy Nance	Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	5.0	3	3	2	4	20	88
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	1	7	29
LAA	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	2	0	7	28
LAA	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_NYY@ARI

20260918_NYY@ARI.json • 2026-09-18

NYY 5 - ARI 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Pavin Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=41 matches NYY BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=42 matches ARI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.506 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.506225, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5451, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.525662, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 11, ARI 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_NYY@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021837517186958377}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02065898586987502}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020592958052271303}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02048520101679474}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020458097691020454}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05624275287953393, '1': 0.08615763298631152, '2': 0.11675443690658414, '3': 0.139960496161135, '4': 0.1484191699247842, '5': 0.13922812307943055, '6': 0.11553574891674318, '7': 0.08481218351104765, '8': 0.05507475198601792, '9': 0.031637291863322155, '10': 0.01607675883899014, '11': 0.007226868268149648, '12': 0.0028737846779500384}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05492468531985429, '1': 0.08421751212168095, '2': 0.11444714551678818, '3': 0.1378399953414926, '4': 0.14713407437883652, '5': 0.1391935144250205, '6': 0.11670580703778054, '7': 0.08672287344773755, '8': 0.05711400028310778, '9': 0.033336440535987076, '10': 0.01724501597461232, '11': 0.007906343930956097, '12': 0.003212591686145734}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9788, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.428, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.786}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0726, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.428, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.786, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=41 matches NYY BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=42 matches ARI BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.506 -> 0.526 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.506225, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5451, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.525662, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 11, ARI 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_NYY@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021837517186958377}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02065898586987502}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020592958052271303}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02048520101679474}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.020458097691020454}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05624275287953393, '1': 0.08615763298631152, '2': 0.11675443690658414, '3': 0.139960496161135, '4': 0.1484191699247842, '5': 0.13922812307943055, '6': 0.11553574891674318, '7': 0.08481218351104765, '8': 0.05507475198601792, '9': 0.031637291863322155, '10': 0.01607675883899014, '11': 0.007226868268149648, '12': 0.0028737846779500384}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05492468531985429, '1': 0.08421751212168095, '2': 0.11444714551678818, '3': 0.1378399953414926, '4': 0.14713407437883652, '5': 0.1391935144250205, '6': 0.11670580703778054, '7': 0.08672287344773755, '8': 0.05711400028310778, '9': 0.033336440535987076, '10': 0.01724501597461232, '11': 0.007906343930956097, '12': 0.003212591686145734}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9788, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.428, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.786}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0726, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.428, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.786, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=6, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Pavin Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.254686697861219	4.479102986830805		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	11
ARI	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		6			2		4	7	7					9.0	4	0	0
current	ARI	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			1		5	3	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	38	11	2	1	1	5	5	3	6	0	1
simulation	NYY	pitching		6			2		4	7	7					9.0	4	41	169
simulation	ARI	batting	33	6	1	0	2	4	4	7	7	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		11			1		5	3	6					9.0	5	42	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Heliot Ramos	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Amed Rosario	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Pavin Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		CF	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Heliot Ramos	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	4	DH	Ben Rice	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	3B	Amed Rosario	5	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYY	6	CF	Spencer Jones	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	C	Austin Wells	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	9	2B	Anthony Volpe	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	5	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	5	1B	Pavin Smith	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Tim Tawa	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	5	4	1	0	0	3.18	3.67	1.13
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	1.90	1.16
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.04
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	1.65	1.07
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	8	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	6.00	2.62	1.22
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	5	4	1	27	112	3.18	3.67	1.13
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.58	1.04
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	20	6.75	1.90	1.16
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	20	9.00	1.65	1.07
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	8	3	3	2	5	1	29	114	4.50	2.62	1.22
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	22	18.00	2.80	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Gerrit Cole	Starter	5.2	2	4	5	4	27	112
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	20
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	3	8	2	5	29	114
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	22
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_OAK@CLE

20260918_OAK@CLE.json • 2026-09-18

OAK 3 - CLE 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jo Adell: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Petey Halpin: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=37 matches CLE BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.822 -> 0.687 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.822487, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5512, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.686844, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.555/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 6, CLE 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - CLE 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0307, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.8447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2425, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_OAK@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.667, 'home_run_delta': 0.0341, 'away_run_delta': -0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015285601769738888}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015242064604758082}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015231150270659952}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015187768196982357}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.014238962919231898}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022688533645756293, '1': 0.035602490999873074, '2': 0.05185615626193381, '3': 0.07010778394849317, '4': 0.08797882086460597, '5': 0.1024792680097855, '6': 0.11080002859134916, '7': 0.11119613968917018, '8': 0.10358229487113421, '9': 0.08956273081035893, '10': 0.071881164710532, '11': 0.05354869164803395, '12': 0.03702785915496259, '13': 0.023765903107669937, '14': 0.014158786121081715, '15': 0.007829674378208515, '16': 0.004018901485602683, '17': 0.0019147717014485256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04673208023439061, '1': 0.07207579577492201, '2': 0.09968056928975359, '3': 0.1236170298104411, '4': 0.13746521967819367, '5': 0.13707368481823803, '6': 0.12256376009092179, '7': 0.09826905861677987, '8': 0.07065098913975883, '9': 0.04554769759155053, '10': 0.026330635541423543, '11': 0.013649067647597017, '12': 0.006344411766029226}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.5196, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.728, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2425}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0307, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.8447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2425, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 7 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 7 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-7, final 3-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=39 matches OAK BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=37 matches CLE BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.822 -> 0.687 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.822487, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5512, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.686844, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.555/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 6, CLE 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - CLE 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0307, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.8447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2425, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_OAK@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.667, 'home_run_delta': 0.0341, 'away_run_delta': -0.0341, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015285601769738888}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015242064604758082}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015231150270659952}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015187768196982357}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.014238962919231898}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.022688533645756293, '1': 0.035602490999873074, '2': 0.05185615626193381, '3': 0.07010778394849317, '4': 0.08797882086460597, '5': 0.1024792680097855, '6': 0.11080002859134916, '7': 0.11119613968917018, '8': 0.10358229487113421, '9': 0.08956273081035893, '10': 0.071881164710532, '11': 0.05354869164803395, '12': 0.03702785915496259, '13': 0.023765903107669937, '14': 0.014158786121081715, '15': 0.007829674378208515, '16': 0.004018901485602683, '17': 0.0019147717014485256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04673208023439061, '1': 0.07207579577492201, '2': 0.09968056928975359, '3': 0.1236170298104411, '4': 0.13746521967819367, '5': 0.13707368481823803, '6': 0.12256376009092179, '7': 0.09826905861677987, '8': 0.07065098913975883, '9': 0.04554769759155053, '10': 0.026330635541423543, '11': 0.013649067647597017, '12': 0.006344411766029226}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.5196, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.728, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.2425}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 7 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0307, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.8447, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2425, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 7 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 7 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-7, final 3-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 7-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jo Adell: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Petey Halpin: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.073425322966613	6.910661290284195		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	7		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	7	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	6
CLE	0	0	2	0	0	0	5	0	0	7	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			1		7	5	5					8.0	6	0	0
current	CLE	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		6			0		3	4	11					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	33	6	1	0	0	3	3	4	11	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			1		7	5	5					8.0	7	39	154
simulation	CLE	batting	34	10	0	0	1	7	7	5	5	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		6			0		3	4	11					9.0	3	37	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		DH	Shea Langeliers	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Tommy White	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Michael Stefanic	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		DH	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	OAK	2	DH	Shea Langeliers	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	OAK	3	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	4	LF	Zack Gelof	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	5	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	3B	Tommy White	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Michael Stefanic	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	SS	Alika Williams	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	DH	Jo Adell	4	4	3	0	0	1	3	0	0	0.750
simulation	CLE	5	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	0	0.667
simulation	CLE	7	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	3.2	6	4	3	3	4	0	0	0	7.36	7.08	1.62
current	OAK	2	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
current	OAK	3	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	27.00
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	CLE	1	Daniel Espino	Starter	3.0	2	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	3.00	2.92	1.22
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.00
current	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.59	1.15
current	CLE	4	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.04	1.26
current	CLE	5	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	4	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	2.58	1.06
simulation	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	3.2	6	4	4	3	4	0	20	79	9.82	7.08	1.62
simulation	OAK	2	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	29	0.00	4.94	1.54
simulation	OAK	3	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	2	0	1	9	33	27.00	6.35	1.82
simulation	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.34	1.43
simulation	CLE	1	Daniel Espino	Starter	3.0	2	1	1	2	6	0	13	64	3.00	2.92	1.22
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.09	1.00
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.59	1.15
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	4	2	2	1	2	0	11	47	9.00	2.58	1.06
simulation	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.04	1.26

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Mason Barnett	Starter	3.2	4	6	3	4	20	79
OAK	Seth Johnson	Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	7	29
OAK	Chris Roycroft	Reliever	1.0	3	4	2	0	9	33
OAK	Hogan Harris	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CLE	Daniel Espino	Starter	3.0	1	2	2	6	13	64
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CLE	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	2	4	1	2	11	47

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_PHI@NYM

20260918_PHI@NYM.json • 2026-09-18

PHI 5 - NYM 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Torrens: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches PHI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.505 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 618, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50515, 'published_confidence': 0.511527, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 9, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - NYM 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544183, 'artifact': '20260917_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260718_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260716', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260716_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0452, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.102, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.453, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_PHI@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02235422276255901}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021326380222300594}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021091156023706027}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02095592464793878}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020659216486864345}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05857105521644565, '1': 0.08957564374572029, '2': 0.12078379563689821, '3': 0.14359497888840136, '4': 0.15051565770639752, '5': 0.13910282590667325, '6': 0.11334492272788056, '7': 0.08142917490115027, '8': 0.051578634856549135, '9': 0.028805240009562433, '10': 0.014183551784418581, '11': 0.006157583995192328, '12': 0.002356934624710547}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05634683366120066, '1': 0.08631067540704564, '2': 0.11693582325933179, '3': 0.14012599316974295, '4': 0.1485175901510801, '5': 0.13922753929572118, '6': 0.11544110230418937, '7': 0.08466108817986444, '8': 0.05491554415886888, '9': 0.03150611110747669, '10': 0.015987566828027162, '11': 0.0071755964977257185, '12': 0.002848535979725441}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6797, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.032, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.453}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0452, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.102, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.453, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches PHI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.505 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 618, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5502, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50515, 'published_confidence': 0.511527, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.512.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.488.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 9, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - NYM 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260917', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.544183, 'artifact': '20260917_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260718', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260718_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260716', 'away': 'NYM', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260716_NYM@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260627', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'PHI', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_PHI@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0452, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.102, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.453, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_PHI@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02235422276255901}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021326380222300594}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021091156023706027}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02095592464793878}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020659216486864345}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05857105521644565, '1': 0.08957564374572029, '2': 0.12078379563689821, '3': 0.14359497888840136, '4': 0.15051565770639752, '5': 0.13910282590667325, '6': 0.11334492272788056, '7': 0.08142917490115027, '8': 0.051578634856549135, '9': 0.028805240009562433, '10': 0.014183551784418581, '11': 0.006157583995192328, '12': 0.002356934624710547}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05634683366120066, '1': 0.08631067540704564, '2': 0.11693582325933179, '3': 0.14012599316974295, '4': 0.1485175901510801, '5': 0.13922753929572118, '6': 0.11544110230418937, '7': 0.08466108817986444, '8': 0.05491554415886888, '9': 0.03150611110747669, '10': 0.015987566828027162, '11': 0.0071755964977257185, '12': 0.002848535979725441}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6797, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.032, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.453}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0452, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.102, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.453, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.512.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Torrens: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.461063953850728	3.7411591501604082		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.512	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	5	9
NYM	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		7			0		4	4	12					9.0	4	0	0
current	NYM	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		9			0		5	3	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	35	9	1	0	0	5	5	3	6	1	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		7			0		4	4	12					9.0	4	38	185
simulation	NYM	batting	34	7	1	1	0	4	4	4	12	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		9			0		5	3	6					9.0	5	40	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Edmundo Sosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Derek Hill	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Mark Vientos	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		1B	Brett Baty	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	LF	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	3B	Bryson Stott	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Derek Hill	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	DH	Mark Vientos	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	6	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	7	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	8	1B	Brett Baty	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Tim Mayza	Starter	5.0	2	2	2	2	10	0	0	3.60	3.06	1.05
current	PHI	2	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	18.00	4.20	1.16
current	PHI	3	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.44	0.96
current	PHI	4	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.36	1.03
current	NYM	1	Zac Thornton	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	2	4	0	0	1.59	3.44	1.16
current	NYM	2	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	6.75	4.50	1.27
current	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	27.00	7.05	1.60
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.59	0.88
simulation	PHI	1	Tim Mayza	Starter	5.0	2	2	2	2	10	19	89	3.60	3.06	1.05
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	5	30	0.00	1.44	0.96
simulation	PHI	3	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	7	27	18.00	4.20	1.16
simulation	PHI	4	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	7	39	0.00	3.36	1.03
simulation	NYM	1	Zac Thornton	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	2	4	23	91	1.59	3.44	1.16
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	4	3	3	1	0	8	29	27.00	7.05	1.60
simulation	NYM	3	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	1.59	0.88
simulation	NYM	4	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	6	23	6.75	4.50	1.27

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Tim Mayza	Starter	5.0	2	2	2	10	19	89
PHI	Chase Shugart	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	0	7	27
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	30
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	2	0	1	7	39
NYM	Zac Thornton	Starter	5.2	1	3	2	4	23	91
NYM	Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	23
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	3	4	1	0	8	29
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_SEA@COL

20260918_SEA@COL.json • 2026-09-18

SEA 9 - COL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=10; ER: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Lazaro Montes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches SEA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches COL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.747 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 122, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5738, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7469, 'published_confidence': 0.760469, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.760.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.760.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.240.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 14 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 14.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.492/0.676.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 10, COL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 9 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.760469, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_SEA@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.013037871796582666}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012980319745151452}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012923807685814595}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01286675913861105}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 10, 'probability': 0.01243220748214108}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04541987588729741, '1': 0.07010861588040024, '2': 0.09719542196101917, '3': 0.12102335614472781, '4': 0.1353447896876708, '5': 0.13594488047510778, '6': 0.12264028165875095, '7': 0.09936933597886687, '8': 0.07231370322961195, '9': 0.04726479557632711, '10': 0.027746226778385938, '11': 0.014629148407167235, '12': 0.0069276051468948096, '13': 0.0029464303077853956, '14': 0.0011255328799866468}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.011652242987269168, '1': 0.018451138176793166, '2': 0.027616085190101843, '3': 0.03906846877817087, '4': 0.052241542352975796, '5': 0.06602842141094012, '6': 0.07888077380591693, '7': 0.08907108324197596, '8': 0.09506652726198846, '9': 0.09590557401659541, '10': 0.09145035428103143, '11': 0.0824237290888724, '12': 0.07021735244569687, '13': 0.0565408020853766, '14': 0.04303331511538557, '15': 0.03095800500653737, '16': 0.021050695656998363, '17': 0.013529609520402967, '18': 0.00821919712603986, '19': 0.004719531122283018, '20': 0.0025614957283945105, '21': 0.0013140556002531928}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9379, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.003}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 9 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 9 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0728, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.124, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.003, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 9 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 9 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.760.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 9-5, final 9-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 14.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches SEA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches COL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 9.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.747 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 122, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5738, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7469, 'published_confidence': 0.760469, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.760.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.760.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.240.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 14 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 14.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.492/0.676.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 10, COL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 9 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.760469, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_SEA@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.013037871796582666}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 9, 'probability': 0.012980319745151452}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.012923807685814595}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.01286675913861105}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 10, 'probability': 0.01243220748214108}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04541987588729741, '1': 0.07010861588040024, '2': 0.09719542196101917, '3': 0.12102335614472781, '4': 0.1353447896876708, '5': 0.13594488047510778, '6': 0.12264028165875095, '7': 0.09936933597886687, '8': 0.07231370322961195, '9': 0.04726479557632711, '10': 0.027746226778385938, '11': 0.014629148407167235, '12': 0.0069276051468948096, '13': 0.0029464303077853956, '14': 0.0011255328799866468}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.011652242987269168, '1': 0.018451138176793166, '2': 0.027616085190101843, '3': 0.03906846877817087, '4': 0.052241542352975796, '5': 0.06602842141094012, '6': 0.07888077380591693, '7': 0.08907108324197596, '8': 0.09506652726198846, '9': 0.09590557401659541, '10': 0.09145035428103143, '11': 0.0824237290888724, '12': 0.07021735244569687, '13': 0.0565408020853766, '14': 0.04303331511538557, '15': 0.03095800500653737, '16': 0.021050695656998363, '17': 0.013529609520402967, '18': 0.00821919712603986, '19': 0.004719531122283018, '20': 0.0025614957283945105, '21': 0.0013140556002531928}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.9379, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.124, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.003}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 9 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 9 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0728, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.124, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 4, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.003, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 9, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 12 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 9 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 9 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.760.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 9-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 9-5, final 9-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 14.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 9-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=10; ER: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Lazaro Montes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.9890377937028525	3.9701810606637977		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	9	5	0.760	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	9	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	9	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	9	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	9	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	2	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	9	10
COL	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		7			2		5	3	11					9.0	5	0	0
current	COL	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			1		9	5	6					9.0	8	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	37	10	1	0	1	9	9	5	6	0	1
simulation	SEA	pitching		7			2		5	3	11					9.0	5	37	164
simulation	COL	batting	34	7	0	0	2	5	5	3	11	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		10			1		9	5	6					9.0	9	43	168

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Brock Rodden	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		RF	Lazaro Montes	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Connor Norby	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Adael Amador	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	1	SS	J.P. Crawford	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	2	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	4	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	3	DH	Dominic Canzone	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SEA	7	2B	Cole Young	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SEA	8	RF	Lazaro Montes	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Brock Rodden	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	COL	2	DH	Connor Norby	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	C	Hunter Goodman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	6	3B	Kyle Karros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	7	RF	Mickey Moniak	4	4	1	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	COL	8	2B	Adael Amador	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	3	6	1	0	0	4.50	3.88	1.05
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.86	1.16
current	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	3.84	1.44
current	SEA	4	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.95	1.10
current	SEA	5	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.42
current	COL	1	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	4.0	7	7	6	2	2	1	0	0	13.50	6.37	1.45
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.39	1.09
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.42	1.45
current	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.76	1.48
current	COL	5	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.24
current	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.40	1.72
current	COL	7	Nick Frasso	Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	54.00
simulation	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	3	6	1	26	115	4.50	3.88	1.05
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	22	9.00	3.86	1.16
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	3.71	1.42
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	3	11	13.50	3.84	1.44
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8	0.00	2.95	1.10
simulation	COL	1	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	4.0	7	7	7	2	2	1	22	83	15.75	6.37	1.45
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.11	1.24
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.39	1.09
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	5.76	1.48
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.42	1.45
simulation	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	5.40	1.72
simulation	COL	7	Nick Frasso	Reliever	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	0	4	13	54.00	7.56	1.74

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Bryan Woo	Starter	6.0	3	5	3	6	26	115
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	22
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	11
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	8
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8
COL	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	4.0	7	7	2	2	22	83
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	21
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8
COL	Nick Frasso	Reliever	0.1	2	3	0	0	4	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_SF@LAD

20260918_SF@LAD.json • 2026-09-18

SF 2 - LAD 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: RBI current=0 box=3; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=2 box=0; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: 2B current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=34 matches LAD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.610 -> 0.584 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.61, 'sample_size': 335, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5582, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5841, 'published_confidence': 0.538282, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.462.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 4, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0778, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.582, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4218, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02192979384243759}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021824047065923124}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021793542913654353}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021688453147261342}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019751010217908305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04703923071603777, '1': 0.07253354940917545, '2': 0.10024740857171054, '3': 0.12418321088771496, '4': 0.13788217328703037, '5': 0.1372172972070876, '6': 0.12239540299122378, '7': 0.09785361125325084, '8': 0.07012035630962833, '9': 0.0450367326989977, '10': 0.025926574671052204, '11': 0.013377621850059678, '12': 0.006186830147030779}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06947577499004755, '1': 0.10544676726959672, '2': 0.13897316432522677, '3': 0.15904734687337843, '4': 0.15805917758698632, '5': 0.1363988828261633, '6': 0.10221148897592533, '7': 0.06650991962792414, '8': 0.03758122544567948, '9': 0.018439674824731623, '10': 0.007856577254340198}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9118, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.512, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4218}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0778, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.582, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4218, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.538.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=34 matches LAD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.610 -> 0.584 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.61, 'sample_size': 335, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5582, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5841, 'published_confidence': 0.538282, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.462.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.538.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 4, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0778, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.582, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4218, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02192979384243759}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021824047065923124}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021793542913654353}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021688453147261342}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019751010217908305}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04703923071603777, '1': 0.07253354940917545, '2': 0.10024740857171054, '3': 0.12418321088771496, '4': 0.13788217328703037, '5': 0.1372172972070876, '6': 0.12239540299122378, '7': 0.09785361125325084, '8': 0.07012035630962833, '9': 0.0450367326989977, '10': 0.025926574671052204, '11': 0.013377621850059678, '12': 0.006186830147030779}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06947577499004755, '1': 0.10544676726959672, '2': 0.13897316432522677, '3': 0.15904734687337843, '4': 0.15805917758698632, '5': 0.1363988828261633, '6': 0.10221148897592533, '7': 0.06650991962792414, '8': 0.03758122544567948, '9': 0.018439674824731623, '10': 0.007856577254340198}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9118, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.512, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4218}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0778, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.582, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 1, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4218, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.538.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: RBI current=0 box=3; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=2 box=0; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: 2B current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.3728769560388496	5.061156902796793		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.538	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
LAD	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	3	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		6			0		4	4	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	LAD	batting	31	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		4			1		2	3	7					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	31	4	1	0	1	2	2	3	7	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		6			0		4	4	8					8.0	4	34	151
simulation	LAD	batting	30	6	4	0	0	4	4	4	8	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		4			1		2	3	7					9.0	2	34	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		2B	Jonah Cox	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	SF		LF	Turner Hill	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		DH	Scott Bandura	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		C	Drew Cavanaugh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	SF		3B	Shay Whitcomb	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Josue De Paula	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	LAD		3B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	2	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	SF	3	2B	Jonah Cox	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	4	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	5	3B	Shay Whitcomb	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	6	LF	Turner Hill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	DH	Scott Bandura	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	SS	Mookie Betts	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	C	Will Smith	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.667
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	2B	Miguel Rojas	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	3B	Enrique Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	CF	Alex Call	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	9	DH	Josue De Paula	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	3	4	0	0	0	7.20	3.68	1.36
current	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.47
current	SF	4	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.33	1.09
current	SF	5	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.06	1.69
current	LAD	1	Tyler Glasnow	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	1	6	1	0	0	3.18	3.50	0.97
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.28	1.01
current	LAD	3	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.83	1.13
current	LAD	5	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.02
simulation	SF	1	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	3	4	0	23	102	7.20	3.68	1.36
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	25	0.00	3.50	1.47
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.33	1.09
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	5.06	1.69
simulation	LAD	1	Tyler Glasnow	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	1	6	1	20	87	3.18	3.50	0.97
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.87	1.02
simulation	LAD	3	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.28	1.01
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	6	23	0.00	2.83	1.13

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	5.0	4	5	3	4	23	102
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	25
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	11
LAD	Tyler Glasnow	Starter	5.2	2	2	1	6	20	87
LAD	Brock Stewart	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	2	1	1	6	23
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_TOR@TEX

20260918_TOR@TEX.json • 2026-09-18

TOR 4 - TEX 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=12; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Jung: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: SO current=1 box=2; Nicky Lopez: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=10; BB: current=3, sim=4).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TOR pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches TOR BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.555 -> 0.550 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.55543, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5451, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.550265, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, TEX 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260627', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523856, 'artifact': '20260627_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260625', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260625_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_TOR@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0375, 'away_run_delta': -0.0375, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023173310355546355}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022393700944140046}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022291078982475693}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021541150090206747}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021190075298478113}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06022537865953466, '1': 0.09199711818651027, '2': 0.12361077853666479, '3': 0.14609181837701873, '4': 0.1518738079174296, '5': 0.1388760335170102, '6': 0.111701539914688, '7': 0.07902753779424604, '8': 0.04917962087173667, '9': 0.02692026533726849, '10': 0.012961669107889194, '11': 0.005489464224048246, '12': 0.002044967555955277}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.061145057563268164, '1': 0.0933407042175768, '2': 0.12516943284892632, '3': 0.14744939401476653, '4': 0.1525826649987282, '5': 0.1387026939618783, '6': 0.11075978215255539, '7': 0.07769566457999097, '8': 0.04787722551693659, '9': 0.02591663788861102, '10': 0.012323834081621911, '11': 0.005147904966595037, '12': 0.001889003208544832}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0131, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.376, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1231}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.726, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1231, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TOR pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches TOR BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.555 -> 0.550 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.55543, 'sample_size': 477, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5451, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.550265, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.524/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, TEX 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.505, 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260627', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523856, 'artifact': '20260627_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260626', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260626_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260625', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525, 'artifact': '20260625_TEX@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_TOR@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': 6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0375, 'away_run_delta': -0.0375, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023173310355546355}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.022393700944140046}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022291078982475693}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021541150090206747}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021190075298478113}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06022537865953466, '1': 0.09199711818651027, '2': 0.12361077853666479, '3': 0.14609181837701873, '4': 0.1518738079174296, '5': 0.1388760335170102, '6': 0.111701539914688, '7': 0.07902753779424604, '8': 0.04917962087173667, '9': 0.02692026533726849, '10': 0.012961669107889194, '11': 0.005489464224048246, '12': 0.002044967555955277}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.061145057563268164, '1': 0.0933407042175768, '2': 0.12516943284892632, '3': 0.14744939401476653, '4': 0.1525826649987282, '5': 0.1387026939618783, '6': 0.11075978215255539, '7': 0.07769566457999097, '8': 0.04787722551693659, '9': 0.02591663788861102, '10': 0.012323834081621911, '11': 0.005147904966595037, '12': 0.001889003208544832}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0131, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.376, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1231}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TOR 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0618, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.726, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TEX', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1231, 'winner': 'TEX', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=12; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Jung: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: SO current=1 box=2; Nicky Lopez: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=10; BB: current=3, sim=4).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.787968607493266	2.529367116241313		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7
TEX	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		8			1		5	3	12					8.0	5	0	0
current	TEX	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		7			0		4	3	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	34	7	2	0	0	4	4	3	6	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		10			1		5	4	12					8.0	5	39	171
simulation	TEX	batting	33	10	5	0	1	5	5	4	12	1	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		7			0		4	3	6					9.0	4	37	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		2B	Josh Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	TEX		DH	Josh Jung	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Josh Smith	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Ernie Clement	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	LF	Myles Straw	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	1	3B	Ezequiel Duran	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	TEX	2	SS	Corey Seager	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	DH	Josh Jung	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	TEX	5	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	7	2B	Nicky Lopez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	8	C	Elias Díaz	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	9	CF	Evan Carter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	6	3	3	2	9	1	0	0	4.50	2.38	1.06
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.30	1.00
current	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	1.73	1.15
current	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	1.80	4.54	1.43
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	20.25	1.71	0.76
current	TEX	3	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.43
current	TEX	4	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.96	1.16
simulation	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	6	2	2	2	9	1	27	114	3.00	2.38	1.06
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	0	6	34	18.00	1.30	1.00
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	0	6	23	9.00	1.73	1.15
simulation	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	2	3	0	21	92	1.80	4.54	1.43
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	3	3	3	1	1	0	8	30	20.25	1.71	0.76
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.96	1.16
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.18	1.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	2	6	2	9	27	114
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	2	2	1	2	6	34
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	1	1	6	23
TEX	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	1	4	2	3	21	92
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.1	3	3	1	1	8	30
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260918_WAS@STL

20260918_WAS@STL.json • 2026-09-18

WAS 3 - STL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: HR current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=33 matches WAS BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=32 matches STL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.515 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.515009, 'sample_size': 514, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5409, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.527955, 'published_confidence': 0.509375, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.491.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.509.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.509.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 2, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5093746499999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_WAS@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0205, 'away_run_delta': -0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.031368243223784176}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.029550447667981386}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028932577706518716}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028899751338292305}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028057333550764882}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08414102255608104, '1': 0.12633077859706882, '2': 0.16118009247509058, '3': 0.17474890743839697, '4': 0.16099722051946935, '5': 0.1260442760838968, '6': 0.08385495282131235, '7': 0.0474062006389669, '8': 0.02277416287535074, '9': 0.009297164923449171, '10': 0.003225221070917534}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08978163901935265, '1': 0.1342312174981591, '2': 0.16910233146034748, '3': 0.1795046600496899, '4': 0.16055799124612977, '5': 0.12100914449993976, '6': 0.07684834542114914, '7': 0.0411226334214535, '8': 0.018542034357496986, '9': 0.007044722830483051, '10': 0.0022552801957984596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0719, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.096, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0131}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0768, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2127, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0131, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.509.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=33 matches WAS BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=32 matches STL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.515 -> 0.528 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.515009, 'sample_size': 514, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5409, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.527955, 'published_confidence': 0.509375, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.491.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.509.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.509.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.691/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 2, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5093746499999999, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-18.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260918_WAS@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0205, 'away_run_delta': -0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.031368243223784176}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.029550447667981386}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028932577706518716}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028899751338292305}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028057333550764882}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08414102255608104, '1': 0.12633077859706882, '2': 0.16118009247509058, '3': 0.17474890743839697, '4': 0.16099722051946935, '5': 0.1260442760838968, '6': 0.08385495282131235, '7': 0.0474062006389669, '8': 0.02277416287535074, '9': 0.009297164923449171, '10': 0.003225221070917534}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08978163901935265, '1': 0.1342312174981591, '2': 0.16910233146034748, '3': 0.1795046600496899, '4': 0.16055799124612977, '5': 0.12100914449993976, '6': 0.07684834542114914, '7': 0.0411226334214535, '8': 0.018542034357496986, '9': 0.007044722830483051, '10': 0.0022552801957984596}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 2.05, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0719, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.096, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0131}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0768, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.2127, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'STL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0131, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.509.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: HR current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.428238174839687	4.044558582126754		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.509	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	2
STL	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		6			1		4	3	6					8.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		3			0		3	3	10					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	29	2	2	0	0	3	3	3	10	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		6			1		4	3	6					8.0	4	33	145
simulation	STL	batting	30	6	2	1	1	4	4	3	6	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		2			0		3	3	10					9.0	3	32	138

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Yohandy Morales	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		C	Harry Ford	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		3B	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		LF	Bryan Torres	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	STL		C	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	3	RF	Dylan Crews	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	2B	Jorbit Vivas	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	WAS	7	1B	Yohandy Morales	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	8	C	Harry Ford	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	5	C	Leonardo Bernal	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	6	3B	Thomas Saggese	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	7	LF	Bryan Torres	3	3	2	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.667
simulation	STL	8	SS	Masyn Winn	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	3	6	1	0	0	4.76	3.12	1.17
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	4.04	1.26
current	WAS	3	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.38	1.15
current	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	1.80	3.33	1.31
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.21	1.31
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.00	4.05	1.33
current	STL	5	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.36	1.42
simulation	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	3	6	1	25	110	4.76	3.12	1.17
simulation	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.38	1.15
simulation	WAS	3	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5	22	6.75	4.04	1.26
simulation	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	2	6	0	19	83	1.80	3.33	1.31
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	4.21	1.31
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	0	2	2	0	0	0	3	13	18.00	4.36	1.42
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	0	6	25	0.00	4.05	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	3	5	3	6	25	110
WAS	Brad Lord	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	22
WAS	Erik Tolman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
STL	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	1	2	2	6	19	83
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	1	3	6	25
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.